Sven Henrich: Could The S&P Really Hit 9000 In the Next Few Years?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 ส.ค. 2024
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Well, the markets are back at all-time highs and central banks around the world are increasingly talking of interest rate cuts...or actually making them.
Will that take asset prices even higher from here?
Are we in a new golden era for stocks?
To find out what the technicals are telling us, as well as to dig into the macro side as well, we're fortunate to speak today with Sven Henrich, technical analyst and publisher of NorthmanTrader.com.
Sven thinks we are at an important juncture, technically-speaking. Either a material correction is going to happen...or we're at the start of a much bigger bull run than we've seen so far. One potentially big enough to send the S&P to 9000 by 2028(!)
#technicalanalysis #bullmarket #stocks
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oh yea the two candidates are SOOO similar...
Finally someone who is just reading the charts. You need to have this guy on more often! Refreshing.
Hi k
Bingo. Sven monthly is a great idea!
For real!
I like Sven's alternative perspectives. Helps me maintain an open mind. Bring him back, Adam.
So what side are you baking decisions on then?
Market doomerism is better for youtube views, but is any of that real? It's important to keep both possibilities in mind, I think.
@cathrynm Sven is a Brilliant Technician and very much a Realist.
I thought I knew better in February because of the Deteriorating Makro. Danielle DiMartino Booth will be right we stated the recession in October 2023 but Markets are the Markets with their own story! Sven is Great🥇
About 2 years ago you had someone on here (well, the old channel) suggesting the S&P could rise possibly as high as 4,600. At the time, we all thought he was nuts because the suggestion was so outrageous. I understand women more than I do markets, and I really don't understand women.
😂
bro you literally made me burst out laughing
Nobody understands markets, not even the professionals on these podcasts.
Sven is one of your very best guests, Adam. Just an idea, would be awesome to have him on for a monthly chartist update or something like that, kind of like you do with Lance and New Harbor with the recurring interviews.
Big fan of the Northman and his unique approach to accurately providing directional market perspectives. Great interview!
From $37K to $45K that's the minimum range of profit return every week I thinks it's not a bad one for me, now I have enough to pay bills and take care of my family.
Some times last week I tried trading all alone but ended up loosing $3K 😢
Please how do I go about it
I'm still a newbie on investment trading and how can I make profits.
All thanks to Alex Robert
He is a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT here in the States.
Yes!!! That's exactly his name (Alex Robert) so many people have recommended highly about him and am I just starting with him from Brisbane Australia 🇦🇺
Thanks for the video. I'm not surprised that there has been a large flight of capital from emerging countries for some time. This confirms my decision not to invest any money in emerging or developing countries in the future, either in the long or short term. I'm sticking to my long-term strategy:👍
Hi , please who is the expert assisting you and how do I reach out to him?🙏🙏
HE’S MOSTLY ON TELEGRAMS APPS WITH THE BELOW NAME.
@hoodsignal ⭐⭐⭐
Thanks for the information... I will contact him as soon as possible. I also want to gain good knowledge and stop losing..☺🙏
I agree that there are strategies that can be used to generate solid profits regardless of the state of the economy or market, but such implementations are usually carried out by investment experts or advisors with experience.
"Say something when you have something meaningful and profound to say." This is a quality that many people in today's society lack. Many seem to just shout uninformed opinions about everything and everyone without thinking about it, especially since social media got a thing. Thats the real pandemic of our lifetime.
Sven is a great guy. Looking forward to more interviews with him.
Sven Henrich - an excellent chartist. Wonder if he has discussed his theory with David Hunter. Fascinating!
Great discussion, Awesome guest!
Apple hasn’t grown earnings in years…
It’s all buybacks…
How does this false info have any likes at all?? Apple revenue was 182B in 2014 and 383B in 2023.
@@RoyceVera In 2015 it was $235B, which is $311B in today's dollars. They're growing at under 3% after inflation but have a PE ratio of 33! When they were actually growing their PE ratio was in the teens.
Sven is one of my favorite guests on this channel. Excellent interview as always. Thanks, Adam.
Sven is good and keeps it light and airy...
I've been under the opinion since rate hikes began, that we will be stuck in a money printing regime. Rolling inflation. Lower quality of life for most. But great for pulling money out of the until the whole shit house goes up in flames. Equity profits go into gold and a little BTC.
Oh, it's a money printing regime since rate hikes.. that's odd. What was your clue? Was the the $1.7T they've reduced the balance sheet and the contraction in the money supply? Thanks for the tip.
Most brilliant mind in the space - love his thoughts and views - honest and trying to to make sense of it all - congrats
Sven is impressive in his ability to make sense of past market moves and discuss where the market might go in the future. And kudos to Adam for letting Sven talk uninterrupted for long stretches as we get more pearls of wisdom packed into the interview because of that.
Great discussion, thanks Adam/Sven -- Happy Fathers Day guys
Sven got me interested in learning technical analysis. Not that I'm any expert but I find it a very helpful way to look at what is happening and what looks like it will happen. Loved this interview!
Love sven Adam interviews, great stuff fellas
Thanks Adam .
I love his sarcastic voice, he’s the man.
He's not lying, the weather's been shite this year.
Exactly, finally someone with real knowledge not guess work. NO LAG EFFECT, NO PIG IN THE PYTHON, etc. Happy father's day Tag
Great perspective and easy to understand explanation by Sven.
Good insights learned from this guest. Thanks.
Good guest. Presented his ideas well
Thank you for having Sven. I share his cynicism over these big three Megacaps. Something’s off, and his charts seem to suggest as much. It’s unpopular, I am sure, but he is really just looking at data.
Also, the discussion of housing is exactly right. Housing is unaffordable for first time buyers, and no one seems to care.
Thanks guys
Great show, good to have an unbiased technical look. Watching for his 10% to 15% pullback in the next few months. Be nice to get Felix Zulauf back on to discuss how well his 24h1 melt up went and whether he still sees a 24h2 meltdown. Keep up the good work
Another brilliant discussion, I love Sven's analysis
Thank you for having him back!!
Fantastic
Love sven. Great interview
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊
This video is so great. I am watching 2end time today. thanks
Northy best man 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
You and Sven are great humans with great insight
Sven is likely correct over the long haul, however he is not giving enough attention to the fact that equities are historically over valued already. By whatever metric you wish to apply, Schiller et. al. , the leads me to believe that the October ‘22 bottom is not the real bottom. No sustained bull market ever commences from a point over over valuation. I think what Sven is talking about likely occurs after an S & P downward reset to either the October ‘22 low or somewhat below it. I still think the next 3-6 are trouble before a true sustained bull commences.
Read the charts every morning and decide from there. We are in unknown territory. Unless a major catalyst happens, every morning is the 1st quarter of the game.
Outstanding! Thank you both
Yes Adam! With the help of CNBC and other news media, the Fed is always able to portray itself as a hero that is doing an extremely hard job for the American people.
Makes me sick.
Stocks aren't going up. It's actually the currency being diluted.
Glad you started a new channel! And I found it!
Great discussion Sven and Adam. It feels so frustrating, that all we ever see is a worsening of a given problem, and sticking plasters. I think not only about the financial crisis we face, but the environmental one. Instead of facing up to overconsumption of energy and resources being a problem, politicians (with the complicity of the population who perhaps don't want to face reality), we have a whole other ecological disaster unfolding before our eyes in the new tech developments.
Yesterday I stopped at a service station to find a gigantic car park next to the fueling pumps. Totally empty, a vast area that used to be forest, and that now is concrete. Tesla symbols next to it, and a lot of this has been subsidized with taxpayers money. Instead of healing the earth, we are mining more and more areas, disrupting crucial complex systems of flora fauna etc. We are covering fields with plastic solar panels which generate a fraction of the energy of fossil fuels. We are not even cutting back on fossil fuels, rather renewables are adding more energy supply to our energy hungry society with ever more screens. I think the internet alone is over 1% of all electricity needs. Probably more.
With money, well, we can't blame people for wanting to try and get a piece of the money printing. That's totally normal when we see what happened in COVID with investment banks getting grants and non repayable loans. Even before that people had seen 20 years of wage stagnation while the 1% got richer. So I think there's now a mentality of "if you can't beat "em, join em". I certainly came to the conclusion some time ago that it's pointless to try and slave away on misery wages. I looked into passive investing and continue to work out ways to make money in our current set up. Because frankly, we are being made fools of.
I really enjoyed the ability to look at what could very be, given my own, Adam’s and Sven’s surprise and shock that it is possible. We must look at “both sides of the coin” and consider ideas and thoughts that run contrary.
Great interview! Thanks!
Great convo. Really enjoyed hearing your perspectives on the social and political ramifications of central bank mismanagement of the economy.
caught you on recording great show
Great conversation! Thank you Sven!
Great interview as always Adam - WEALTHION ain't shit without you
amazing work, congrats
Great chart! The explosive upside maybe explained by super inflation coming earlier than expected. Looking at Yellen’s reaction as a market signal is also a very good call!
Thank you Adam
Boy this gets frustrating - if you're so concerned about wealth inequality, why are you dedicated to creating content that is about how the top 2% invest their wealth? You're a bright guy - do something that might address the wealth inequality, which certainly does exist. God forbid one raised the capital gains tax, or corporate taxes - that's anathema. Instead, let's just bash the Fed, who with a completely disfunctional Congress, has been put in the situation of being the only adult overseeing the economy. The amount of technical content here is becoming smaller and smaller.
You can solve wealth inequality by becoming wealthy. Earn, save, invest. It’s up to each of us, not the government or industry or Adam Taggert. Over thirty years I made a few hundred thousand selling insurance and investments part time. I invested the money I made. I hated working nights and weekends. It paid off in the long run. Not in the top 1% but in the top ten percent. I am average at best and screwed up a lot but it shows anyone can do it.
Having a healthy middle class is a very good thing for the country regardless of where you are at as an income earner
Could it be that each of the Mag7 in their own field are monopolies?
v g presentation by Sven of his PoV
Adam, it would be great to have your show in Spotify, just the audio version. It can be downloaded without premium membership.
This show is on Spotify. Can you not find it there?
Incredible discussion!! Thank you !! :)
Question: Is fiscal dominance causing the market to act bullish? 🤔 What is the correlation here?
I am not an expert but I think so. Instead of trying to figure out why stocks, gold, houses, bitcoin …etc are going up, individually, I started to think about this as the dollar going down issue. Stocks and gold usually don’t go up together, gold doesn’t usually go up when fed is keeping rates high. There are lot of unusual things here. All of it made sense when I started listening to Michael Howell. The underlying current is rising GLOBAL liquidity. Even if Fed is doing QT, if China starts QE that will support gold and lot of that liquidity will end up in US stocks too, because they are “safe investment”
For foreigners, not mentioning all the liquidity from retirement plans.
It is a globalized world and it is all about liquidity. For the most part.
I hope this sheds some light.
Fiscal dominance is world governments printing money to deficit spend, that increases liquidity and pushes prices of all assets from yogurt to gold all up.
If this guy is predicting 9000 start selling, he gets more wrong than right.
Like everyone on this channel.
We have seen something like this - The Medieval Times - serfs and lords.
Yes! I am tickled pink to hear brilliant analyst talk about the equal weight charts. Something I have been looking at and wondering why The Market has become synonymous with NVDS as if no other equity is part of The Market anymore.
OMG! thinking outside the box, while remaining in the trend! Fantastic interview.
Really great podcast Adam.
Sven 💪
The bifurcation in fed500 could be due to passive flows that result in increased concentration n centralization.
Sven is great
Best guest
David Hunter, for quite some time, has been calling for SPX 7,000 by year end 2024! Please bring David back on! David thus far has THE BEST forecasting record. no one else comes even close.
He is also calling for the market to drop 50-70% by year end!
Yes great ❤
Excellent
That High-Low chart was inscredibly thought provoking. hmmmmm
we have the worst government in history where we never talk about spending cuts... there is lot of talk about raising taxes - no talk about cuts.. and the Rep candidate is talking about corporate tax cuts.. wow!!! when they are raking in profits and laying off... good video - 9000 for $SPX is very suspect..
A question... Is there a direct connection with thle inflation?
Thank you very much...
Great discussion and info.! Ha, as an anon commenter, I'm not afraid to say it or think it: eventually you have to wonder if how the economy is being handled is on purpose, rather than just a result of incompetence. "They" want a great reset and a central bank digital currency, were the last 4 years an intentional redistribution of wealth?
I like the finally of 'what non-investment advice do you have for viewers ' answer!😊
But, of course, I like the economic and investment analysis best!😊
I couldn't agree more. The election will most probably continue the base policies that have created the macro problems that are the most dominant.
Very good interview and unbiased chartist. Enjoyed. Would love to see you interview Raoul Pal.
Sven is one of my favs for this channel, and its not easy to articulate why. I think if I had to put it on anything, its that he's got a low level suspicion of the "fake" economy that we are all living in, and its refreshing to hear someone that admits that America has a solid amount of hot air and bs in its veins at this point.
Fundamentally it looks like a question of whether you believe the economic output is going to be better or worse from here and rates significantly lower, since its those factors that would lead to the small caps rallying hence Sven's rotation and broadening scenario.
Sven is still one of the best guests.
Adam, why didn't you discuss de-dollarization and loss of value for the $ as a potential catalyst to SPX 9000?
For this guy to be right Buffet and Gundlach have to be wrong. I'm with Buffet.
Buffets got hundreds of billions of dollars allocated long the market which would run with the bubble
Chamath recently talked about the upwards of 750 Billion recently spent on things with the AI label that have generated less the 10 Billion in revenue, the absence of enterprise or consumer end use cases, the 18 months of history we’re looking at, etc. Questioning the sustainability of these valuations is more then a legitimate position.
I respectfully disagree with Sven that higher rates are prolonging the housing pain. We need MUCH HIGHER rates which will put more pressure on house prices to the downside.
also I'm recalling late 2000 when I had made some money with NTAP and when some nurse at a party said she was going to buy it. Next day sold and, well see the chart...
And just like that, the broad market starts to rally. Sven is Svell!
Apple, I believe you have to get new phones and iPads for it to work at max velocity.
Canada housing blows up over the next 2 years. 70% of all home loans needs to be refinanced. Monthly payments will be up 30% and more. With all the bad loans the banks holding the bad paper blow up.
interesting that when you had McLellan on a few weeks ago, he denied we had poor market breadth...don't know what exactly he was looking at, but this has been developing for a while now.
This guy made me not buy stocks at the bottom for a few years. And now he flips bullish lol
We (government and dumb people) don't have a money problem; we have a spending problem.
If Plugs gets another 4 years God help us!
We are bumping up against a 120 year trend line right now. It sits on the peaks of 1899, 1929, 2000, and 2022.
great interview.......i think sven is on point, we are just entering a massive melt up phase
you should bring david hunter back on
Is there a way to see who owns the biggest % positions of the mega cap stocks?.
That's easy. Vanguard, Blackrock, State St
Yahoo finance
My fellow countryman is very clearly looking at the data: if US politicians decide to pump more money into Main Street wallets, it’ll provide the buying power necessary for the S&P to rally all the way up to 9,000. Rationale: consumer spending is a major component of US GDP.
However, remember to correct for inflation which will be flying, too! So don’t get too enthusiastic…
The advice is simple. If you are long, set tight stops and ride the wave. If you are in cash, stay that way - you are getting 3-5%. If you are short, ride out the wave and hope that you have your limbs at the conclusion. Then if you are like me, a gambler, either go ALL IN Short or ALL IN Long depending on how your gut feels
Would love for you to invite David Hunter back. 😊