The cliff notes are: 1.) Do valuations matter? I don't know anymore. The biggest recursive driver for the denominator in valuations is the amount of money printing/deficits. Put another way... A.) Does the stock market measure valuations independent of the erosion of the unit of account? B.) How do you factor that in? Super curious to see it play out.
Valuations are only used to estimate fair value when the wheels come off because liquidity has been drained or animal spirits go into hibernation. In other words, hard times set in. Apart from then, its 100% casino and any valuation is just a number.
OH, I just saw the comment about your Mother prior to listening to Sven (who is awesome!). May you Mom rest in peace while your family is wrapped in prayers by all us in this wonderful and blessed (to find you and your channel) viewing family. I'm confident that we will all meet again. That gives me peace during turbulent times. I hope that sentiment & faith provides you and your family a level of comfort.
Thanks guys, great chat with one of my very favorites, Sven! One thing I just can't comprehend with Powell. He constantly invokes Volcker as if he equates this situation to the 70's and early 80's, but he continues to fall far short of what is obviously needed to finish the job.... Why does nobody ever press him on the liquidity issue? He's literally trying to put out a fire with gasoline! Doesn't he realize this? And Yellen is undoing everything he's attempting to do as well. Or is he just gaslighting that he's doing his best to fight inflation, when in fact he isn't removing enough liquidity from the system to show he means business.... If he continues to waver and markets blast to new highs, and the dollar is crushed, we will be looking at a strong resergence of inflation, which will cause far more problems(years of stagflation) than if they just kept at the rate hikes and caused a cyclical recession, and gave us a nice reset....Seems like pleasing Wall St. is always the top priority.
Fed QE has NEVER stopped nor will it……and as long as you print the currency, you can print however much you want. You’ll never default because you can just create the credit.
This guy said liquidity is everything. He and other guests touting liquidity are late to the party. Adam had a guest about a couple months ago speaking on just that - Michael Howell. I highly recommend watching those 2 videos a few times. Mr. Howell deserves some cred.
Adam , so sorry for the loss of a beloved mother . Everything changes when a mother passes away ! Nothing will be the same , but life goes on and , you know, memories stay forever . ❤ Hilde from Belgium
👍Yes, Sven is correct in how he sees M2 -- the pig is still in python. Also, the Fed's reduction of its balance sheet -- sure, it will start to happen next week and ...👍
Considering the fed are talking out of both sides of their mouth - raising rates with one hand, then pumping liquidity into the system with the other - is hard to see what can actually slow down this juggernaut. The FED backstop (and all other central banks), is always there. If they're going to step up and print 2 trillion every time there's a crisis, then it's hard to see what could bring valuations down to reality. A meteorite???
Ultimately, it's still as always a big guess - a big calculated guess. No one knows what's going to play out next. Peter Lynch said, if you spend 13 minutes a year studying the economy, you've wasted 10. For retail investors that's so true. Yet, I enjoy these discussions.
Most of the inflation is due to corporate price gouging so punishing the labor force is an odd way to try and lower inflation. Opec+ just cut production again to drive up energy prices as the summer demand season arrives.
there will be a battle between lower demand as the consumers are tapped out but lower supply usually means higher prices. I'm staying clear of that tug of war
@@jxschw Crushing labor is not working out the same for the Fed this time. Too much of a labor shortage so far. But most of the inflation is from the corporations simply charging more because they can. The corporations own the government so there is nothing to stop them from price gouging.
Another great session with Sven. Thank you. The last chart shown of the 10yr yield has a clear 5 waves up from the mid 2020 low. It is now correcting but the 5 waves up implies another rise which may have already begun (Elliott Wave analysis). Given the recent lack of spine by the Fed, I don't suppose many imagine rates going much higher. If market yields continue to rise, the Fed will follow because it almost always follows the market (as opposed to leading it). We also have an island reversal in the SPX, DJI and NDX. There is a lot of risk in pursuing this market.
@46:00 - the part about 2 trillion deficits while not in a recession, to imagine what’s its going to be when the recession comes. Ooof 😮 If the Feds commitment to higher for longer to tackle the sticky services inflation and core inflation which the largest and lagging contributor are housing/rent and cars, we are in for a fun one. Single family housing starts have been on decline for months while multi family is hanging in there, what needs to occur for that shoe to drop?
I've usually heard that head and shoulder, and reverse head and shoulder patterns, are more commonly reversely patterns. Would that not make it more likely for the one on the Dow Jones more likely to fail?
I actually use Chicago Fed National Conditions and compare to S&P w/multipliers for each line to make the graph useful. You'll see that (using inverse conditions) match the trajectory of the s&p. But the bond market is smarter...and I haven't come up with the right formulas to match
The point Sven made when he said that core inflation was 5% in 2021, what Powell has to prove something to hit it back to 2% is a compelling thought. This would then make me think that the FED is not about inflation. It's only about credibility.
The people in charge of economics are clueless You cannot learn from books. You can get ideas of what and didn’t work but no situation can always be sterile form You do not have to have a phd to figure out that closing the world giving people money would work out!!! In 2007 bernanke said everything in real estate was fine It’s a joke these idiots it’s how Rome went down the tubes. We’re past the point of this staying but can it last another 50 years? Yes Babur it will not make another 100
One question I have that is kind of off subject, but for decades, ever since I have been following finances and economics just to listen and learn, people everywhere always talked about the Dow Jones and the S&P was the red headed step child. Why is it that now the S&P is front and center and the Dow is never even mentioned? Did I miss a memo?
True, but the 2008 crash started how many years before 08? And, the 1929 crash began perhaps 20 years before it happened. In fact, in the cycle leading to the 29 crash peak inflation happened over 10 years before the crash and then inflation held at almost zero throughout the 1920's. They govs need lots of time and to fund themselves.
The main problem is NO one knows. Second problem is ALL THESE Money managers will make money off their clients. So fire ur money manager and go treasuries.
Tea leaf reading. There are lots of facts and little theory, just because there has been a correlation does not mean it will continue unless we know why this should be the case. Charting patterns have been disproved many times in academic studies, I do wish people would back up their "charting patterns" with hard stats if they are going to use these.
You have had Sven back on within 4 months but still not David Hunter whose predictions are very clear, proving correct yet unheard on Wealthion. When you last interviewed David you said you would get him back to see how his forecast had played out. It has (so far) so where is he???????
The equity markets, YTD up trend, explained as the central banks liquidity injection/ interventions, seems to indicate a surreptitious QE, ( asset price inflation) wealth effect, market spoofing operation.( Dispite the FEDs public stance) ,of being in a QT mode. The FEDs, exchange stabilization fund, must have kicked into , over-drive, at the first sign of banking system fragility/ distress.
The Fed has tried to walk the tightrope on a decline in asset markets, but the problem is that they didn't change expectations and animal spirits at all. This makes their strategy tougher to execute. Powell can't talk up fear - they have to see it in stark policy actions.
Market topped out Jan 2022, rates started going up March 2022. Pretty forward looking to me. Market bottomed in October 2022, fed skipped in June 2023. Pretty forward looking to me.
The problem is the time line. Stocks want to go up. But if your time line is short you can't assume the market will continue to go up. A 2 year down market can be a killer to a 70 year old but a 30 year old can sustain
They’re going to continue raising interest rates as countries dedollarize because 70% of the economy is based on consumption so the cost of consuming increases as they dedollarize because it raises cpi because there will no longer be much demand for dollars and other currencies raising against the dollar
Thanks for sharing but with all the respect you all know predict only the past. Those they're buying every months smarter than all those with scary prediction. But no doubt one day day will be right. But those they're listening to them will lose big time like they're losing today. Yes after 300% the market will correct... 20 % Good luck to all of you
I think it could be when the Fed puts forward more interest rate increases causing further pain, resulting in interest rates being lowered likely next year ? Wish I knew ,as with everyone else when ? If we did,some of us could go from living peasant status to being a more successful Peasant ! Giggling.
It feels like the market is desperate for the bull run of the last decade to not end. If the long term bull run does end where does all the currency going into the stock market flow to instead…?
With the amount of money they printed to help people almost none of it went to helping people. They printed enough money to give every American $14,000. They gave you two checks of $1,000. Blaming the stimulus checks for inflation is simply dishonest.
Sorry for your loss Adam. Sending prayers your way.
The cliff notes are: 1.) Do valuations matter? I don't know anymore. The biggest recursive driver for the denominator in valuations is the amount of money printing/deficits. Put another way... A.) Does the stock market measure valuations independent of the erosion of the unit of account? B.) How do you factor that in? Super curious to see it play out.
Mvp
Valuations are only used to estimate fair value when the wheels come off because liquidity has been drained or animal spirits go into hibernation. In other words, hard times set in. Apart from then, its 100% casino and any valuation is just a number.
Love Sven! Great guest…
Thank you Adam for introducing me to Sven a few months ago. I am a diehard fan now! Please bring him back as much as you can. He is just fabulous.
P⁰
Very sorry for your loss, Adam. Hope you and your family have a chance to take all the time needed...
OH, I just saw the comment about your Mother prior to listening to Sven (who is awesome!). May you Mom rest in peace while your family is wrapped in prayers by all us in this wonderful and blessed (to find you and your channel) viewing family. I'm confident that we will all meet again. That gives me peace during turbulent times. I hope that sentiment & faith provides you and your family a level of comfort.
Fantastic to hear from Sven@ Thank you.
Another fantastic interview!!
Love the charts!
Thank you for having Sven back, hope to hear from him again in the future
Adam I am so sorry to hear of your loss, sending prayers to you and your family!
Best prayers for you, Adam. Sven is a great mind. Love this channel. Take care. God bless.
Prayers to you and your family this week
Thank you so much for the very kind words
Adam, thank you for asking the liquidity question!
min 23 question awesome. been wondering myself the same for a while
So sorry for your less, praying for you and your family. Thanks for bringing back Sven. Excellent interview!
Wow, I've never seen one of your guests give so many arguments for both a bull and bear case in the same presentation!
Too much overthinking!
Thanks guys, great chat with one of my very favorites, Sven!
One thing I just can't comprehend with Powell. He constantly invokes Volcker as if he equates this situation to the 70's and early 80's, but he continues to fall far short of what is obviously needed to finish the job.... Why does nobody ever press him on the liquidity issue? He's literally trying to put out a fire with gasoline! Doesn't he realize this? And Yellen is undoing everything he's attempting to do as well. Or is he just gaslighting that he's doing his best to fight inflation, when in fact he isn't removing enough liquidity from the system to show he means business.... If he continues to waver and markets blast to new highs, and the dollar is crushed, we will be looking at a strong resergence of inflation, which will cause far more problems(years of stagflation) than if they just kept at the rate hikes and caused a cyclical recession, and gave us a nice reset....Seems like pleasing Wall St. is always the top priority.
Fed QE has NEVER stopped nor will it……and as long as you print the currency, you can print however much you want. You’ll never default because you can just create the credit.
Phenomenal interview. Best read I've seen on the current set up all year.
This guy said liquidity is everything. He and other guests touting liquidity are late to the party. Adam had a guest about a couple months ago speaking on just that - Michael Howell. I highly recommend watching those 2 videos a few times. Mr. Howell deserves some cred.
Thanks
Thank you very much!!!
Really enjoyed this guest. Great content
Great, honest, unbiased analysis. 👍
Adam , so sorry for the loss of a beloved mother .
Everything changes when a mother passes away !
Nothing will be the same , but life goes on and , you know, memories stay forever .
❤ Hilde from Belgium
👍Yes, Sven is correct in how he sees M2 -- the pig is still in python. Also, the Fed's reduction of its balance sheet -- sure, it will start to happen next week and ...👍
Considering the fed are talking out of both sides of their mouth - raising rates with one hand, then pumping liquidity into the system with the other - is hard to see what can actually slow down this juggernaut. The FED backstop (and all other central banks), is always there. If they're going to step up and print 2 trillion every time there's a crisis, then it's hard to see what could bring valuations down to reality. A meteorite???
Love for the love. Great content rain or shine.
great interview with Sven!
Sven is awesome 😃👌
Thanks Sven & Adam 👍💛
Can’t wait for this PPV discussion!
Such a great talk. Thanks so much
Great guest adam. A balanced approach.
Excellent Thanks guys#
Sven is tried and true wise
Love him !! Thanks Adam
Great interview. Basically the market and reality are really disconnected and this go on for a while before things get back to where they should be.
Best to make money with the market we have instead of waiting for the market you want. Market does not care about our opinions.
@@user-ec8rr6no3m cool
Maybe you should trade reality then 🤡
Great episode!!!🎉🎉🎉
This is two titans of financial and macro analysis. Thank you for this!
Ultimately, it's still as always a big guess - a big calculated guess. No one knows what's going to play out next. Peter Lynch said, if you spend 13 minutes a year studying the economy, you've wasted 10. For retail investors that's so true. Yet, I enjoy these discussions.
Most of the inflation is due to corporate price gouging so punishing the labor force is an odd way to try and lower inflation. Opec+ just cut production again to drive up energy prices as the summer demand season arrives.
Congress is just watching from the sidelines & with the playbook, watching JPow running the only play he has over & over.
@@StormKingLand Congress is just doing what ever their donors who legally bribed them tell them to do.
there will be a battle between lower demand as the consumers are tapped out but lower supply usually means higher prices. I'm staying clear of that tug of war
@@jxschw Crushing labor is not working out the same for the Fed this time. Too much of a labor shortage so far. But most of the inflation is from the corporations simply charging more because they can. The corporations own the government so there is nothing to stop them from price gouging.
Yes inflation is going to resurge!
Another great session with Sven. Thank you. The last chart shown of the 10yr yield has a clear 5 waves up from the mid 2020 low. It is now correcting but the 5 waves up implies another rise which may have already begun (Elliott Wave analysis). Given the recent lack of spine by the Fed, I don't suppose many imagine rates going much higher. If market yields continue to rise, the Fed will follow because it almost always follows the market (as opposed to leading it). We also have an island reversal in the SPX, DJI and NDX. There is a lot of risk in pursuing this market.
There was NO line at the Starbucks Drive Thru at 9am today.
This is the first time I've seen this since 2010.
Reverse repo impact on liquidity?
the plunge protection team jumping in here
Don’t need a PPT when you have massive amounts of currency buying the same 8 stocks. The PPT is not buying the markets right now…….we are.
Prayers for Adam and his family 🙏🏾
Steve is the best guest!
@46:00 - the part about 2 trillion deficits while not in a recession, to imagine what’s its going to be when the recession comes. Ooof 😮
If the Feds commitment to higher for longer to tackle the sticky services inflation and core inflation which the largest and lagging contributor are housing/rent and cars, we are in for a fun one. Single family housing starts have been on decline for months while multi family is hanging in there, what needs to occur for that shoe to drop?
I've usually heard that head and shoulder, and reverse head and shoulder patterns, are more commonly reversely patterns. Would that not make it more likely for the one on the Dow Jones more likely to fail?
I actually use Chicago Fed National Conditions and compare to S&P w/multipliers for each line to make the graph useful. You'll see that (using inverse conditions) match the trajectory of the s&p. But the bond market is smarter...and I haven't come up with the right formulas to match
The when ... started FRIDAY!
you wish . We got more to rise
The point Sven made when he said that core inflation was 5% in 2021, what Powell has to prove something to hit it back to 2% is a compelling thought. This would then make me think that the FED is not about inflation. It's only about credibility.
Powell said inflation is transitory - he meant that inflation is permanent.
The people in charge of economics are clueless
You cannot learn from books. You can get ideas of what and didn’t work but no situation can always be sterile form
You do not have to have a phd to figure out that closing the world giving people money would work out!!! In 2007 bernanke said everything in real estate was fine
It’s a joke these idiots it’s how Rome went down the tubes.
We’re past the point of this staying but can it last another 50 years? Yes Babur it will not make another 100
One question I have that is kind of off subject, but for decades, ever since I have been following finances and economics just to listen and learn, people everywhere always talked about the Dow Jones and the S&P was the red headed step child. Why is it that now the S&P is front and center and the Dow is never even mentioned? Did I miss a memo?
Should Fed needed to pause?
How about putting in the title Part1of2 and 2of2.😮 You have 4 interviews with him!
Except final target was hit FRIDAY ... it's over
tech, your svenical analyst 18:00. It's too bad you caught yourself, Adam, that would have been hilarious.
True, but the 2008 crash started how many years before 08?
And, the 1929 crash began perhaps 20 years before it happened. In fact, in the cycle leading to the 29 crash peak inflation happened over 10 years before the crash and then inflation held at almost zero throughout the 1920's. They govs need lots of time and to fund themselves.
Too Big To fail across the board , a whole new culture: the middle class will be a memory .
There is only too big to fail or too small to matter as far the government and regulating agencies are concerned.
Too big to jail 😅
The main problem is NO one knows. Second problem is ALL THESE Money managers will make money off their clients. So fire ur money manager and go treasuries.
Tea leaf reading. There are lots of facts and little theory, just because there has been a correlation does not mean it will continue unless we know why this should be the case. Charting patterns have been disproved many times in academic studies, I do wish people would back up their "charting patterns" with hard stats if they are going to use these.
Oh shucks, so sorry I missed Sven. Watching late.
If the last 20 years won't get a traditional cash-flow analyst to jump out a window in anguish nothing will.
And now insurance companies will stop writing home owner policies or not renew new policies in high risk areas
YES every drop is met with calls now!!!
You have had Sven back on within 4 months but still not David Hunter whose predictions are very clear, proving correct yet unheard on Wealthion. When you last interviewed David you said you would get him back to see how his forecast had played out. It has (so far) so where is he???????
The equity markets, YTD up trend, explained as the central banks liquidity injection/ interventions, seems to indicate a surreptitious QE, ( asset price inflation) wealth effect, market spoofing operation.( Dispite the FEDs public stance) ,of being in a QT mode. The FEDs, exchange stabilization fund, must have kicked into , over-drive, at the first sign of banking system fragility/ distress.
YES the FED has been doing very little to reduce QE!
Isn’t this the first time that M2 has shrank? So the chart from 1929 would make sense?
The Fed has tried to walk the tightrope on a decline in asset markets, but the problem is that they didn't change expectations and animal spirits at all. This makes their strategy tougher to execute. Powell can't talk up fear - they have to see it in stark policy actions.
So what I understand from all this is that they're not being honest with us and they're planning to pull the rug from under us to suck money dry. 😂
Market topped out Jan 2022, rates started going up March 2022. Pretty forward looking to me. Market bottomed in October 2022, fed skipped in June 2023. Pretty forward looking to me.
Well they need to stop inflation, but they also need refinace 40% of US debt in next 3 years at reasonable rates.
They don’t need to stop inflation. They just need to tell you it stopped. Inflation is very good for them.
there are no pullbacks in an inflationary hyper-rally driven by irresponsible hyper-liquidity.
More SVEN!
Short squeeze with 0 day options! But straight up mean straight down!
Do 0DE options remind anyone else of portfolio insurance from the 80s?
no more bear on this show as long as the money printer go BRRRRRRR
The problem is the time line. Stocks want to go up. But if your time line is short you can't assume the market will continue to go up. A 2 year down market can be a killer to a 70 year old but a 30 year old can sustain
They’re going to continue raising interest rates as countries dedollarize because 70% of the economy is based on consumption so the cost of consuming increases as they dedollarize because it raises cpi because there will no longer be much demand for dollars and other currencies raising against the dollar
Wrll dine Adam. Obe of the best. Similar thesus yo Michael Howrll.
I'm very sorry for your loss.
This time is different, highest valuation in the history of USA, bears will win
Well I'm never going to use an elevator again.
Thanks for sharing but with all the respect you all know predict only the past. Those they're buying every months smarter than all those with scary prediction. But no doubt one day day will be right. But those they're listening to them will lose big time like they're losing today. Yes after 300% the market will correct...
20 %
Good luck to all of you
I think it could be when the Fed puts forward more interest rate increases causing further pain, resulting in interest rates being lowered likely next year ?
Wish I knew ,as with everyone else when ?
If we did,some of us could go from living peasant status to
being a more successful Peasant !
Giggling.
It is ... when valuations matter again ... the vix will too!!!
All the billions and billions of dollars leaving banks and bonds are ending up in stocks.
Out of the frying pan into the fire!
Word of the day = WHEN?
Who/what started the AI viral spike?
Except valuations will matter ADAM!! It won't matter that liquidity is there!!! When there are no more greater fools to buy it, it's over!
It feels like the market is desperate for the bull run of the last decade to not end. If the long term bull run does end where does all the currency going into the stock market flow to instead…?
Bitcoin
Badassery today on Wealthion
#1. Guests name is Sven
#2. Title says market will get a punch in the face.
Sounds like an action movie to me.
META NO SO LONG AGO DID SAME.
MASTER REGISTRARS
LOTS MORE THAN MEETS THE EYE
FOMC
21:06:23
03:12 N.Y
Fed chair Powell's gone full Volker. You NEVER go full Volker!
get more sven
With the amount of money they printed to help people almost none of it went to helping people. They printed enough money to give every American $14,000. They gave you two checks of $1,000. Blaming the stimulus checks for inflation is simply dishonest.
He wasn't only talking about those little stimi checks. He even made a case of the big infrastructure agreement being stimulus.
@@miltonaldridge4170he clearly said the money that was sent out to help people created todays inflation. 30:47
Adam. Your mother was a beautiful woman… love your videos!
He said the same thing in 2020 and 2021
Too many fearmongers on this channel!
Excessive debt leverage concentrates wealth and thus is politically and economically unsustainable.