If you do want to run Essence Memories, here's the trade link for Einhar's Memory of Crystal Prisons: www.pathofexile.com/trade/search/Sanctum/w5z5M0Ksb Have you been converting your things with Harvest? SO. SO. SO! (so)...SO!
Assuming equal weighting for each type of essence when rerolling, you'd have to calculate the average price of any essence by adding all individual prices up and then dividing by the total essence number. You'd then have to substract the harvest reroll cost to generate a real average price. With this real average price, you'd just compare whatever essences you are planning to reroll with it. If the essence is under the real average price, reroll. If it's over the real average price, stop. This is assuming equal weighting for all essences, of course, which I honestly have no clue about. Hope this helps! Edit: If the weightings are not equal, you'd have to add a % modifier to each essence based on each inidividual weighting. Edit 2: Also, not exclusive to essences btw 😁😁👌👌
You are a fucking legend man. I got some friends into PoE this league and one wanted to see some high end crafting and you were the first person that came to mind.
Expected value of the conversion is the chance of converting to a valuable essence times the average chaos value of the valuable essences. So if your chance of converting to any of the valuable ones (starting from a non-valuable one) is 1/3, and the average chaos value is 9, then the expected value of the conversion is 3c per essence. When the cost of the non-valuable essence plus the cost of the reroll gets close to 3c, then this stops being a money spinner. If you demand a wage of 4/Div per hour for your time, then you shouldn’t do this when the payout dips below 1 Div per 15 minutes of total trading / flipping time combined.
That makes sense!! So calculate the cost per reroll attempt and the chance to improve and by how much upgrading increases the value. So if improving means gaining 50c, and each reroll costs 20c, but you only have a 1 in 5 chance to upgrade, you're going to spend 100c before you make 50. I think I got that right?
@@Lolcohol yep. The important part there is that your payout is 50c, your chance of getting the payout is 1/5, so your expected value is 10c. Since your cost is 20c, you will be, on average, deleting 10c of value per reroll. Catalysts are bad because your payout is 8c, your chance of hitting it is roughly 1/8, for an expected value of 1c. But the cost of rerolling is 1.3c. So on average you delete .3c every time you reroll a catalyst. You can roughly estimate the chance of hitting a good outcome by counting the number of times you hit a desired outcome in a trial of 100-200 conversions using a single orb/essence/catalyst. If you only have a 15% chance to succeed then your payout needs to be large compared to your costs to make it worthwhile.
That's great, thank you. When you lay it out like that, it reminds me a lot of poker maths and evaluating decisions based on odds of winning compared to what you're being expected to pay to call - even if you lose once, if you make the same call 100 times, you'll win more than you lose
I love this video. I crafted my essences into something that sells for atleast 4c each preferably 5c. Not only I made more currency but sold all in 10mins without even using TFT. No-one rly even want to buy those 2-3c essences.
Locohol, the way to calculate the craft is to do an EV calculation. The craft is worth the sum of all cost of all the other items you can change, divided by the number of items it can change into. Then subtract the cost of the craft plus the item you are changing to get the expected value of doing the craft on that particular item.
@@Lolcohol Is it possible to request crafting a BV explodey chest, either with Redeemer incr. Aura effect or Hunter spell crit/+1 Curse? Would be much appreciated.
make more profit by doing smaller stack sizes so bad streaks dont cost as much, i do everything in stacks of 2's which cost about 2c per roll rather than 10c+ a roll. rerolling on bad streaks with high stack size can eat your profit margin up quite abit
I used to buy the cheapest deli orbs and convert them into scarabs or div cards and saved a ton of money. It always blew my mind that the blue harvest juice was always the cheapest lol
Can you post your spreadsheet with the before and after numbers for converting? I can make a copy and figure out the breakpoint for what price the essences and blue juice have to be to make profit
EVERYONE. After he just drop that, just go farm HARVEST and sell it for profit :) You actually need to do the contrary of what youtuber says to make currency cause once they released theire video, its already over.
True! Strats like this will still be profitable, but not as profitable after a video like this, but you have the right idea - if videos like this force a demand for a certain thing to run a strategy, instead supply that demand instead of doing the strategy itself!
i dont get it, you said you used about 100k worth of blue harvest juice worth 9 divines. did you just have 100k of that lying around? why didnt you include the cost of the conversion into you profit? am i missing something?
I spent 9 Divines to turn a gross profit of 27.5 Divines into a gross profit of 43.3 Divines (an increase of 15.8). After expenses are calculated, that converts to a net gain of 6.8 Divines - therefore I spent 9 Divines to make 6.8 more than I would've had I not spent that 9 Divines :D Hope that makes sense
Yo my friend, West, need to study some economics. The Market always balances itself out. It never breakes if one Goldrush happens. It evens itself and people discover new methods during that process. Just dont be to lazy to think.
Bro I wish people didn’t cover the ways I in which I literally make so many divines… now if everyone does it, price of harvest materials goes up, price of Essence evens out. This only works for a few people, eventually no one will make money
If the price of blue juice spikes, you can farm the blue juice instead of essences! And then when everyone starts farming blue juice instead of essences, start farming essences again :o
If you do want to run Essence Memories, here's the trade link for Einhar's Memory of Crystal Prisons: www.pathofexile.com/trade/search/Sanctum/w5z5M0Ksb
Have you been converting your things with Harvest?
SO. SO. SO! (so)...SO!
Assuming equal weighting for each type of essence when rerolling, you'd have to calculate the average price of any essence by adding all individual prices up and then dividing by the total essence number. You'd then have to substract the harvest reroll cost to generate a real average price.
With this real average price, you'd just compare whatever essences you are planning to reroll with it. If the essence is under the real average price, reroll. If it's over the real average price, stop. This is assuming equal weighting for all essences, of course, which I honestly have no clue about. Hope this helps!
Edit: If the weightings are not equal, you'd have to add a % modifier to each essence based on each inidividual weighting.
Edit 2: Also, not exclusive to essences btw 😁😁👌👌
Love the crafting man keep it up
Thanks! More crafting tomorrow or later this week :)
By far the best PoE content available tbh, keep it up and happy new year :)
Happy new year!
Nice work on the video and spreadsheet!
Makes me happy whenever I hear ´´ This is lolcohol ´´^^
Insanely information video, youre a legend. keep it up!
:) Thank you!
You are a fucking legend man. I got some friends into PoE this league and one wanted to see some high end crafting and you were the first person that came to mind.
I appreciate it! Hopefully your friends can learn some stuff by watching the crafting vids!
Expected value of the conversion is the chance of converting to a valuable essence times the average chaos value of the valuable essences.
So if your chance of converting to any of the valuable ones (starting from a non-valuable one) is 1/3, and the average chaos value is 9, then the expected value of the conversion is 3c per essence.
When the cost of the non-valuable essence plus the cost of the reroll gets close to 3c, then this stops being a money spinner.
If you demand a wage of 4/Div per hour for your time, then you shouldn’t do this when the payout dips below 1 Div per 15 minutes of total trading / flipping time combined.
That makes sense!! So calculate the cost per reroll attempt and the chance to improve and by how much upgrading increases the value. So if improving means gaining 50c, and each reroll costs 20c, but you only have a 1 in 5 chance to upgrade, you're going to spend 100c before you make 50. I think I got that right?
@@Lolcohol yep. The important part there is that your payout is 50c, your chance of getting the payout is 1/5, so your expected value is 10c. Since your cost is 20c, you will be, on average, deleting 10c of value per reroll.
Catalysts are bad because your payout is 8c, your chance of hitting it is roughly 1/8, for an expected value of 1c. But the cost of rerolling is 1.3c. So on average you delete .3c every time you reroll a catalyst.
You can roughly estimate the chance of hitting a good outcome by counting the number of times you hit a desired outcome in a trial of 100-200 conversions using a single orb/essence/catalyst.
If you only have a 15% chance to succeed then your payout needs to be large compared to your costs to make it worthwhile.
That's great, thank you. When you lay it out like that, it reminds me a lot of poker maths and evaluating decisions based on odds of winning compared to what you're being expected to pay to call - even if you lose once, if you make the same call 100 times, you'll win more than you lose
This is how i made 1ex per pull in harvest. Buy cheap essences, convert. Worked with fossils and scarabs too, so as breachstones.
I love this video. I crafted my essences into something that sells for atleast 4c each preferably 5c. Not only I made more currency but sold all in 10mins without even using TFT. No-one rly even want to buy those 2-3c essences.
Exactly! I'm glad you enjoyed it :)
Love your content. From crafting to farming! Your crafting guides are my personal favorites. So useful. Makes unaffordable builds, affordable.
Aw thank you! That makes me glad :)
Locohol, the way to calculate the craft is to do an EV calculation. The craft is worth the sum of all cost of all the other items you can change, divided by the number of items it can change into. Then subtract the cost of the craft plus the item you are changing to get the expected value of doing the craft on that particular item.
Thank you!
@@Lolcohol Is it possible to request crafting a BV explodey chest, either with Redeemer incr. Aura effect or Hunter spell crit/+1 Curse? Would be much appreciated.
I do the same thing with the winged scarab sextant. Change all of them for either ambush scarab or divination scarab
Does this work for the special essences as well like essence of horror?
Life force stonks. I farm life force. I'm happy. Hopefully this will bring the price of blue and purple to the same level as yellow.
impossible because gamble needs yellow. so it never gonna happens.
i convert loads of Scarabs, Deli orbs and Breach in harvest, its great.
make more profit by doing smaller stack sizes so bad streaks dont cost as much, i do everything in stacks of 2's which cost about 2c per roll rather than 10c+ a roll. rerolling on bad streaks with high stack size can eat your profit margin up quite abit
I used to buy the cheapest deli orbs and convert them into scarabs or div cards and saved a ton of money. It always blew my mind that the blue harvest juice was always the cheapest lol
Video → harvest juice prices → stonks
Exposed.
@@Lolcohol hehe
Can you post your spreadsheet with the before and after numbers for converting? I can make a copy and figure out the breakpoint for what price the essences and blue juice have to be to make profit
Hey :) can you pop me a dm on Discord and I can send it through?
Reminds me of last league, where it was profitable to buy "bad" essences and blue juice and just sit in the hideout and reroll, lol!
what is with the T2-T3 and lower essence ? upgrade or not ?
I upgrade them all to deafening if I plan to sell :)
EVERYONE. After he just drop that, just go farm HARVEST and sell it for profit :)
You actually need to do the contrary of what youtuber says to make currency cause once they released theire video, its already over.
True! Strats like this will still be profitable, but not as profitable after a video like this, but you have the right idea - if videos like this force a demand for a certain thing to run a strategy, instead supply that demand instead of doing the strategy itself!
i dont get it, you said you used about 100k worth of blue harvest juice worth 9 divines. did you just have 100k of that lying around? why didnt you include the cost of the conversion into you profit? am i missing something?
I bought it for 9 divines and did subtract that from the profits after conversion. I think you're missing something!
what map do you use to for the memory ?
Hmm I jumped around, starting at different points. I couldn't find one that felt the best but liked starting at Atoll and Strand
i hope there is a conversion like these for heist contracts lol
Ooh that'd actually be so cool!
Still waiting for you to sing the intro in different octaves as promised!
Ohh! I forgot about that. Hopefully I can remember when I actually sit down to record again 😅
What build are you playing?
Kobeblackmamba's Venom Gyre :)
How low the harvest has fallen. Being able to change essences suddenly become "OP". Man i miss ritual league.
Hello Lolcohol its me Akasha, i am done with this League now :D Lost 8 Mirror Shard cards with 1 Click haha
Omg noooo you pushed it too far!
self-aware thumbnail
Just as a heads up dont try this tactic for catalysts, not worth it to get fertile/prismatic :)
True! I also tried it for fossils and it was BAD lol
The clickbait arrow turned out to be not a clickbait arrow, because that's what baited me into clicking.
Or...was it?
5D click bait chess!
That’s why life forces are so expensive 😮😅
nooooo, you just exposed my farming strats. now i need to find another farming strats :
Sorrrryy! :( but if everyone starts converting, what's going to happen to the price of blue harvest juice? Maybe that's your next strat !
@@Lolcohol yeaaa haha great idea
Great... Now the essence prices are gonna be fucked.
Spreadsheet is so pweddy 🎉 SUS
You inspire me daily 🤩
hello can i have ur atlass tree?
Oh no:( I've been found. I've done this all league long:(
Haha don't worry - either blue harvest juice will go up which will mean farming it could be a good idea, or most people will forget about it in a week
And lolcohol ruined everything :(
:( sowwi
this essence convert is extremly profitable.
BUT
very boring and time consuming ;-(
I enjoy doing it and it only took me 16 minutes to convert over 1000 deafening :)
dont do it with catalysts, its weighted highly against getting good ones.
you will lose 100% of the time
you spend 9 div to make another 7??? me brain to stupid
I spent 9 Divines to turn a gross profit of 27.5 Divines into a gross profit of 43.3 Divines (an increase of 15.8). After expenses are calculated, that converts to a net gain of 6.8 Divines - therefore I spent 9 Divines to make 6.8 more than I would've had I not spent that 9 Divines :D Hope that makes sense
Its not OP, its lowpriced lifeforces, fix it price 1.5-2x
Thanks for ruining moneymaking methods for everyone else -_-
if you dont konw how to do currency and start to whining for this, you are playing the wrong game.
Yo my friend, West, need to study some economics. The Market always balances itself out. It never breakes if one Goldrush happens. It evens itself and people discover new methods during that process. Just dont be to lazy to think.
Bro I wish people didn’t cover the ways I in which I literally make so many divines… now if everyone does it, price of harvest materials goes up, price of Essence evens out. This only works for a few people, eventually no one will make money
If the price of blue juice spikes, you can farm the blue juice instead of essences! And then when everyone starts farming blue juice instead of essences, start farming essences again :o
@@Lolcohol but he didnt farm essences, he was buying it at home