Why Wait for Notre Dame & UNC? w/Greg Flugaur
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 19 มิ.ย. 2024
- From the 6/18 Big 12 Mafia Show
We are joined by The Godfather of #conferencerealignment ,@cfbpeekaroundthecornerwgre4877 , to discuss the ins and outs of why the #bigten will wait for #notredame and #unc
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See you soon Notre Dame. I am inevitable.
Sincerely,
The Big Ten
Don't hold your breath man. Sincerely, ND Alumni
@@A100-ND inevitable
Love watching your guys’ show. Keep up the great work fellas! Go Bucks 🌰
This might sound crass and trying to pick an argument but it appears to my very ordinary ability to comprehend issues that the B1G and UNC are depending on FSU/CU to take all of the risks and spend millions of dollars to pave the way out of the ACC, not for their benefit but for the benefit of UNC who took no risk nor spent a cent. Party A performs all of the work for the benefit of Party B. As I noted, I probably don’t understand it. Can someone explain it to me in a way that makes sense?
a) FSU is desperate. It even made public statements that it won't be competitive if it doesn't get SEC/B1G money by a set date. This justifies a scorched earth, Hail Mary, "all or nothing" strategy since staying in the ACC (without a new media deal) and falling to the BIG12 is football death either way. Become a free agent and pray for a P2 invite. Most likely, "all" means B1G, "nothing" means BIG12.
b) In contrast, CLEMSON has most likely secured an SEC invite if part of package with UNC. As a founder and to keep its options open, CLEMSON has just pursued a dec judgment (on behalf of both) to establish the enforceability of the contracts and applicability of the existing law.
@@tarheel7406 Dodd destroyed UNC's valuation and UNC is being mocked on X and 247. I guess you can quote random internet sources (some of whom banned you) over CBS-Dodd. See how that turns out in the future. I noticed there have not been any CFB reporters that have come out and claimed Dodd is incorrect. Why not?
@@tarheel7406 UNC is desperate and Dennis Dodd-CBS has them way below pro-rata.
The SEC wants 1. North Carolina 2. UNC 3. the Tar-heels 4. Anybody else... in that order.
That’s awesome news. FSU and Clemson should go to the B1G.
@@FSUMagnetic2024 FSU and CLEMSON would likely wither on B1G islands. FSU likely has no choice but to take that risk. The B1G is unlikely to invite CLEMSON.
@@tarheel7406 FSU will not be the only school in the Southeast in the B1G. Almost thinking there is a push from within the B1G to get Miami instead of Clemson. Also FSU has played an independent schedule across the country and will be just fine in the B1G-if that is the landing spot.
@@FSUMagnetic2024
a) I've suspected for some time that the B1G may stand pat to save 4 slots until ND, UNC & UVA are "officially" lost.
b) MIAMI is likely unavailable until ~2036 and paired with ND.
c) Things are far different now than when FSU and others were indy.
d) Being surrounded by SEC schools and their advantages will result in FSU withering.
e) The B1G is unlikely to have any interest in CLEMSON. GATECH would be a better bet.
FSU has been foolish. It doesn't understand where it stands in all of this and doesn't respect its peer/betters. This has likely resulted in killing any SEC interest as a secondary priority and put any B1G interest at risk. Before FSU went scorched earth, I could have easily seen UNC, UVA, FSU +1 to the SEC. Now, I suspect CLEMSON took its spot.
@@tarheel7406 The SEC has reached its high water mark. The low ratings and income of their schools is well documented i.e. Miss. St, Mississippi, South Carolina, Kentucky, Bama, LSU, Tennessee etc. These schools are always ranked low, have poorly rated STEM and low income grads. UNC and Virginia have small alumni bases and will do little to raise the below average academic reputation of more than half of SEC Universities. The GDP of BIG markets coupled with large affluent alumni bases will continue to keep them on top.
How many years of eligibility has Cam Rising had ?
Great points, Greg. It’s funny how before the UW and Oregon got into the Bigs there was so much talk of UNC going first. I think I argued with that Tarheel guy over it. I had to do a lot of googling during that argument and discovered that UNC brings a lot to the table. They also probably bring in a lot of R&D money due to their tech programs and closeness to so many DOD and intelligence Community sites.
I argued that the B1G would first look South before returning West. It appears that UNC (and likely UVA) have been lost to the SEC, so the B1G could prematurely add W/O.
Since the SEC has no interest in (now former) PAC schools, they will always be available to the B1G. After TEXAS was consolidated, the battle was always going to be over UVA/UNC.
@@tarheel7406 it would have been the right move but the Pac 10’s stupidity cratered themselves. I’m thankful to have my school the heck out of there. The Big 10 is just a better organized and led organization.
@@killbaal4149 The PAC's underlying problem are demo and cultural changes in the footprint. It simply could no longer get a Tier 1 media deal, so its top brands had to attach themselves to a conference centered where it could remain Tier 1. Similar to the Northeast where schools had to join either the B1G or ACC.
The PAC ultimately failed to survive as a Tier 2 due to the delusions and incompetence of its leadership.
@@tarheel7406 Says the guy in the collapsing ACC. All but 2 Pac-12 teams found P4 homes. That will not be the case for the ACC. How did you like Dodd's valuation of UNC behind FSU and WELL BELOW BIG pro-rata?
@@MikeJohnson-cp5if Moron....
Example articles:
"College football realignment: SEC, Big Ten have 2 schools on radar, per report" (Jun 2023) by James Parks (SI associate)
"Paul Finebaum on SEC realignment: FSU is ‘third’ of 3, behind North Carolina" (Sep 2023) by NY Times
"College football realignment: SEC, Big Ten could target 1 ACC school" (Mar 2024) by James Parks (SI associate)
"Report: UNC Viewed as SEC, Big Ten's Most Attractive Expansion Target from ACC" (Mar 2024) by Timothy Rapp (Bleacher Report)
Example Vids:
"What we know about UNC potentially LEAVING the ACC | College Football Enquirer | Yahoo Sports"
"Dan Wetzel: If FSU Can Get Out of the Grant of Rights It Will Be the End of the ACC | Realignment" (~5-minute mark)
"Bob Thompson: The ACC Being the Next Conference to Break Up Is Not Good For ESPN | Realignment" (~10-minute mark)
"North Carolina wanting OUT of the ACC? | How Things Stand in Chapel Hill with Bubba Cunningham, UNC"
"Matt Fortuna: North Carolina Is the Most Desired Brand Among All of the ACC Schools | CFB" (~7-minute mark)
"ESPN’s Pete Thamel on the Possibility of More Big Ten & SEC Expansion | The Rich Eisen Show" (~4-minute mark)
The Top4 fastest growing states population wise are:
South Carolina
North Carolina
Texas
Florida
Most US population growth is in the South in general.
I agree. I think Florida State and Clemson will be rewarded for being 1st to be available. Time does not matter with Notre Dame. They can join B10 or SEC at anytime. Both would make room for ND at anytime in future.
How so rewarded?
@@tarheel7406 Dodd put UNC's value in the 30 millions lol. No lawsuit and no way you. Just internet rumors.
@@MikeJohnson-cp5if Moron....
Example articles:
"College football realignment: SEC, Big Ten have 2 schools on radar, per report" (Jun 2023) by James Parks (SI associate)
"Paul Finebaum on SEC realignment: FSU is ‘third’ of 3, behind North Carolina" (Sep 2023) by NY Times
"College football realignment: SEC, Big Ten could target 1 ACC school" (Mar 2024) by James Parks (SI associate)
"Report: UNC Viewed as SEC, Big Ten's Most Attractive Expansion Target from ACC" (Mar 2024) by Timothy Rapp (Bleacher Report)
Example Vids:
"What we know about UNC potentially LEAVING the ACC | College Football Enquirer | Yahoo Sports"
"Dan Wetzel: If FSU Can Get Out of the Grant of Rights It Will Be the End of the ACC | Realignment" (~5-minute mark)
"Bob Thompson: The ACC Being the Next Conference to Break Up Is Not Good For ESPN | Realignment" (~10-minute mark)
"North Carolina wanting OUT of the ACC? | How Things Stand in Chapel Hill with Bubba Cunningham, UNC"
"Matt Fortuna: North Carolina Is the Most Desired Brand Among All of the ACC Schools | CFB" (~7-minute mark)
"ESPN’s Pete Thamel on the Possibility of More Big Ten & SEC Expansion | The Rich Eisen Show" (~4-minute mark)
With Florida having outstanding universities and a growing business climate, don’t expect many students to want to go the ND and UNC. Most are staying in the Florida with cheaper tuition and high quality education.
just like FSU has made a necessary if perhaps unlikely to be successful play in realignment. The core B1G schools have to at least try and attract more out of state students to maintain their undergrad enrollment size and selectivity goals. I don't see it working either.
Per my research, I sampled the B1G members with IOWA and PSU, both of which are already below 50% in-state undergrad enrollment.
Out of State students aren’t the model for Big Ten universities, it’s International Students.
P4 International Enrollment rankings:
Penn State
Washington
Illinois
Cal
UCLA
Purdue
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Arizona State
USC
Rutgers
Michigan State
Syracuse
Michigan
Indiana
@@HoodedNinj4 Then the BIG12 wouldn't be pressing to expand so far outside of its core geo.
FYI: Notre Dame is a small school and ALWAYS has tons more applicants than acceptances. So your comment regarding if they "want" to go there is not applicable. Sorry Nole and yes, your school was screwed royally by the CFP cmte.
Honesty i feel that once a settlement is in place but they won't announce until the last day to help themselves and the acc for thie up coming season
Resume: 29:00
When FSU becomes available, the B1G will ask Notre Dame. They will say no. They will ask UNC. They will say no. They will ask FSU and they probably will say yes as #19.
And Miami comes in at #20.
North Carolina will not say no to a B1G invitation.
As a reminder, FSU did not get the same unworthy AAU invite as did MIAMI and ND. FSU was not reported as vetted as was MIAMI.
MIAMI likely has tied itself to ND and moves accordinngly.
@@Patrick-sg7cm UNC has already rejected the B1G on a number of occasions. As things stand, now heavily leaning SEC. This helps explain why the B1G prematurely added WASH/ORE.
@@tarheel7406 I don't necessarily think that Washington and Oregon were premature additions to the B1G. Fox Sports wanted Oregon in the B1G back when USC was added. In fact, when Cal attempted to block UCLA from joining the B1G, Fox Sports was prepared to add Oregon if UCLA wasn't able to join the B1G.
Greg but the incoming schools will teach you what real QB's look like in the coming years.
Good luck to your Gophers but they are rowing their way to 6 or 7 wins.
Hi Big 12. Florida State and Clemson should be the most valuable properties after Notre Dame and that’s a fact. Probably as many Clemson fans living in North Carolina as Tar Heel fans. UNC should be fourth. NC State is actually the bigger university and has a rabid fan base and more of a football school.
This story is ~3 years old and still confused?
@@tarheel7406 Dennis Dodd's story is less than a week old and yet to be contradicted by a SINGLE journalist. Why are you still confused that CBS-Dodd thinks UNC is no where near for-rata?
@@tarheel7406 30 million dollar heels?
Yep, NCSt >= UNC, imo.
Would/could Notre Dame bring it's ACC privates brethren en mass to the Big12, along with the public schools without P2 invites ?
Let’s say this scenario is true. This means FSU and Clemson have zero incentive to continue fighting in court to leave because they have nowhere to go if they got out. They have already lost and go back to ACC slums.
UNC has no power to initiate litigation or leave due to BOG and if the other 2 drop litigation due to lack of interest, there is no settlement number.
Notre Dame then has no incentive not to finish out their current new TV contract.
So in this situation nothing really happens at all and everyone is stuck at least for the short term
Rumor has it that ESPN is rewriting the GOR to allow schools to leave.
If true, When they finish, anything could happen.
Translation: We don't want Clemson with FSU......XOXO B1G. I can promise you there are B1G Presidents who don't want Clemson there.
Yea seems like they were all about a Mia Fsu package deal... but when bait n switched with clemson, they were like... "uh, let's not rush into any major purchases right now guys..." 😂
Lots of unexpected stress as things stand:
a) The B1G has long considered UVA and UNC secured when/if they moved.
b) CLEMSON needs a UNC coattail to the SEC, but political interferences is higher than expected.
@@tarheel7406 "The B1G has long considered UVA and UNC secured when/if they moved."
Who is "The BIG" that you are talking about? Do you have A SINGLE SOURCE from a College President/Chancellor, A FOX-CBS-NBC media executive, or Tony Petitti? Please give us just a SINGLE SOURCE that the BIG considers anyone secured or has even offered UNC in the past. SOURCE?
@@MikeJohnson-cp5if Moron....
Example articles:
"College football realignment: SEC, Big Ten have 2 schools on radar, per report" (Jun 2023) by James Parks (SI associate)
"Paul Finebaum on SEC realignment: FSU is ‘third’ of 3, behind North Carolina" (Sep 2023) by NY Times
"College football realignment: SEC, Big Ten could target 1 ACC school" (Mar 2024) by James Parks (SI associate)
"Report: UNC Viewed as SEC, Big Ten's Most Attractive Expansion Target from ACC" (Mar 2024) by Timothy Rapp (Bleacher Report)
Example Vids:
"What we know about UNC potentially LEAVING the ACC | College Football Enquirer | Yahoo Sports"
"Dan Wetzel: If FSU Can Get Out of the Grant of Rights It Will Be the End of the ACC | Realignment" (~5-minute mark)
"Bob Thompson: The ACC Being the Next Conference to Break Up Is Not Good For ESPN | Realignment" (~10-minute mark)
"North Carolina wanting OUT of the ACC? | How Things Stand in Chapel Hill with Bubba Cunningham, UNC"
"Matt Fortuna: North Carolina Is the Most Desired Brand Among All of the ACC Schools | CFB" (~7-minute mark)
"ESPN’s Pete Thamel on the Possibility of More Big Ten & SEC Expansion | The Rich Eisen Show" (~4-minute mark)
Welcome to my demo analysis from ~Day 1 of this now ~3 year old story. For ~200x, the core B1G footprint is growing at ~1% per census. California would have negative growth if not for foreign immigration. The core ACC (and likely SEC) footprint(s) are growing at ~10% per census. VA, NC & GA have passed or will soon pass IL, OH, MI & PA in population.
Per my research. IOWA & PSU are now under 50% in-state undergrad enrollment and are slipping academically. The B1G simply can't maintain their academic metrics in the face of demo trends. Select census figures:
1980:
TX ~14,229K
PA ~11,864K
IL ~11,427K
OH ~10,798K
FL ~09,746K
MI ~09,262K
NC ~05,882K
GA ~05,463K
VA ~05,347K
IA ~02,914K
2020:
TX ~29,146K
FL ~21,538K
PA ~13,003K
IL ~12,813K
OH ~11,799K
GA ~10,712K
NC ~10,439K
MI ~10,077K
VA ~08,631K
IA ~03,190K
You still have no clue how TV ratings work. Therefore you have no clue have conference TV revenue is generated. And that's why you still refuse to admit why all the North Carolina schools combined can't save the ACC without the small school from Indiana. Iowa > UNC.
@@heartbreak25 Amazing... Is it stupidity or simply a lack of intellectual honesty? Media value is a function of quantity and quality of viewers. The B1G is slipping on both. It's not just the total population, but the different "pyramids".
Demography is destiny. The B1G has reached its highwater mark.
@@tarheel7406 Here is the list of millionaire households by state:
1. California (Nearly double #2)
2. Texas
3. New York
4. Florida
5. Illinois (1 out of every 22 residents in Chicago is a millionaire)
6. Pennsylvania
7. New Jersey
8. Virginia
9. Ohio
10. Massachusetts
11. Georgia
12. Michigan
13. Washington
14. North Carolina
15. Maryland
16. Colorado
17. Minnesota
18. Arizona
19. Tennessee
20. Indiana
21. Wisconsin
22. Missouri
23. Connecticut
24. Oregon
25. South Carolina
3 out of the top 5, 7 out of the top 10, and 12 out of the top 20 states with the most millionaires are in the B1G footprint. You sure you truly understand the meaning of quantity and quality?
Based on your logic, Indonesia should be the 4th largest superpower in the world right behind the US based on population.
@@heartbreak25 The population still has to have an interest in one's product. We can ignore the international markets for simplicity. I'm also mostly ignoring cultural trends inside the US since I'm not sure how to good faith adjust, but doing so would likely hurt the B1G even more.
There are reasons why the core B1G states have stagnant population growth. The generally young, educated and ambitious (on top of snowbirds) are fleeing the state for economic reasons. If it were just retirees, the populations wouldn't also be aging.
Demography is destiny. The B1G has reached its highwater mark.
@@tarheel7406 I told you that you repeatedly shifted your argument and you're doing it again. You admitted that brands matter more. Now you're doubling back down on demographics because of one article. Then you cherry-pick which populations matter to suit your argument. And you wonder why you get a bad rep on these boards.
Here is a list of the top advertisers in college football:
1. Allstate
2. State Farm
3. Nissan
4. Dr. Pepper
5. Geico
6. AT&T
7. DirectTV
8. Progressive
9. T-Mobile
10. The Home Depot
8 out of the top 25 firms are either insurance, mortgage, or credit card firms. Those all sound like things people with money will need. And how many people in Alabama, South Carolina, and Mississippi are buying a Nissan, Benz, Cadillac, or Lexus which are also in the top 25?
Yes. This population of high-income households has an interest in the products being advertised. Again, in your logic, Indonesia is going to overtake the U.S. as a world superpower due to population trends. The economic strength of the US doesn't matter to you.