Did I Crack Bricklink? Buying sets to part out based on expected ROI instead of POV ratio!
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 25 ส.ค. 2024
- Hi,
In this video I will be talking about a new analysis I've developed which enables me to work out which sets to buy to part out on Bricklink based on an expected return on investment.
please note that I'm not a financial advisor and that these metrics are based on past 6m data and therefore cannot ensure the same outcome over the next 6m.
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Fred
Hillians Bricks
Best of luck on this new method, I have my doubts though...
If you are a bit experienced with BL it isn't complicated to find out which sets will perform well & this "improved" system will implode if it becomes popular.
I would just stick to the 3x and just keep expanding, you need crazy high margins to make this hobby worthwhile.
The Darth Vader helmet is probably ranked very high in your new statistics, but the margin is tiny :(
BrickLink is ruled by the numbers. The biggest store gets the most sales. Competitive pricing isn't relevant when you are in the big boys club; It's just a race to the bottom where smaller stores crash and vanish.
I do hope this is a success & I'm thinking of joining the Patreon just to check it out ;)
Darth Vader helmet is not on my list as the POV ratio is only 1.23 vs RRP so even if you sold 100% of the stuff it's not one worth parting out imo.. agree that pricing isn't a major factor although I was overpriced in my store recently due to brickstore mismatches and found after a major reset that it did have a significant impact on my order volumes..
@@HilliansBricks Wait a minute, so you do account for the 3x Part out? I guess it's a mix of both? Once again, I really want this to be a success :)
I first do my POV analysis to give me a list of all the best POV ratios.. then I plan to take the sets that give me a ratio of 1.7 or above to analyse which ones have a good ROI. no point analysing the ones below that imo.. plus its quite a big job every month.
Maybe or maybe not. Thanks for taking the time to look into to the idea
This is why 'used' pieces are the backbone of my store, new pieces I only buy with whatever is left after I pay my expenses. It'll soon build up, but for anyone just starting, you're better off putting at least some of your money in used pieces to grow your inventory and lot count.
Great and informational video.
I go for a part out of over 2 the value...also new lots to my store are a big thing for me..colour is a factor.ie not orange or red to a point
Fred, without the data i already was looking for those sets that have parts that sell better, i'd rather take a 2x partout and sell 90% then take a 3x and sell 40%, but i'm missing a factor here, that is how well people find your store, how big is your store. doesn't this play a role in this as well and also your prices?
totally agree that it's better to look at the parts within the set and have items that sell rather than the non sellers.. store size is important but difficult to analyse the impact on this and this is why we are looking at market supply vs market demand for each part in the set and work out weighting based on averages (and use average 6m values to calculate expected value)
Hi Fred, i'm very curious on how you accumulate your data for your analysis. Very creative way of thinking here.
What would you need from a US seller to start doing the US?
Totally understand you don't want to share this data for the UK. You're running a business, it's not a charity.
This is so silly... Firstly, there aren't separate markets, they all converge to the same value over time because many buyers don't care which country the parts come from so they buy from the cheapest until they equalize. Secondly, you can't look at the current supply and conclude anything meaningful, because many of the big stores wait until the set is off the market before parting out all the sets they have accumulated. Also, many small stores don't buy the sets at all unless they are on clearance so you won't see this 'supply' until it's too late either. Thirdly, all parts sell eventually, so unless you are capital constrained the exact timing of the sale barely matters. Just use the global part out value and be careful with new sets where the value of new parts are changing quickly and you'll be fine.
Your comment couldn't be any more wrong.
There are seperate markets on Bricklink, they are in no particular order, GBP, USD, CA, EUR, AU.
Shipping costs, exchange rates and import taxes prevent these markets from ever truely converging although some parts might get close.
Customers DO care about the country they buy from, 99% of my customers all buy from the same country as the store for many reasons, Lower Shipping Costs, Faster Shipping Times, No Import Duty.
@@StewieCrypto It doesn't matter if some buyers have a preference for one region or another. There are enough buyers who will simply buy from the cheapest region to force part availability and prices to converge over time.
The whole analysis shown in the video is based on various transitory factors which will be irrelevant by the time you eventually sell the parts.
You're looking at noise and pretending it's signal.
@@vikingbrick2484 Your making a very bad assumption there with no data to back it up. If you look at various stores you will find out that on average 80-85% of their orders are same region/continent as such your arguement is that 15% of the global Bricklink customer base can skew six month sales averages by buying parts from outside their local region?
@@StewieCrypto Only small stores are that regionalised, because almost the only appeal small stores have to a buyer is being geographically close. Large stores have a much more diverse customer base. We ship a roughly a dozen orders each day into the UK alone, and we're not based in the UK. Your second error is assuming it takes a large difference to converge the price. If the US is the cheapest / most available market for a part, it will be the source of parts for many buyers from many different other regions. Sure, maybe only 30% of UK orders as a whole are placed internationally, but for that one part that is cheaper somewhere else, it will see a lot of cross border transactions.
No offence, but the problem with this channel and it's audience is that you're all running tiny hobby stores with no idea what you're doing. So you come up with these silly assumptions that don't match reality and run off on tangents instead of focusing on what you should be focusing on, which is buying as many sets as you can with high part out value and growing bigger.
All great stuff, I left Spain to move back to the USA and saw a big difference with typical items that sold. Moving to China hopefully before the end of the year and already know they have a very different part want list. This why the global part list is very inaccurate to me. Most of my sells are in Asia at this time.
I can't believe the efforts people are putting in for literally pennies!