The bank crisis isn't over yet, and experienced individuals know credit crises don't end quickly. Some find it amusing that some think it's resolved, but in reality, we're headed for a major economic downturn due to this credit contraction.
After the '08 financial crisis, I've learned not to trust corporations. Since 2020, I've been investing with a financial advisor and have had no major losses, so I'm not going back to relying solely on banks.
Many overlook that banks are profit-driven businesses. I don't trust keeping a large sum in a bank, instead, I invest with guidance, enjoy the benefits, and save for retirement.
My CFA ’’ Sharon Ann Meny, a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market..
I don't agree with Rich on much, but the man's got crystal clear observations about the energy industry and I absolutely love that he's unwavering in those convictions.
You guys sitting here sweating over a couple curse words, now I HAVE to watch with Ron Butler from last week. Keeping that guy in the good graces of the language police is an impossibility!😄
Some commenters here for the longest time were saying that Chinese overseas buyers were going to support the real estate market. Now you can plainly see that they were wrong. It's now only a matter of time till the market finds its floor without overseas Chinese buyers.
First SVB, then signature bank, and then first republic bank, these are all the signs of yet another global economy downtrend, and 2008 market crash 2.0, so my question is do I still save in the United States dollar, or is this a good time to buy gold and stocks?
@@billrussell1933 well we saw fires starting to spike in neighbourhoods at 7% interest rates, so 20% would probably just bring scorched earth, which is no good. But deportation and let’s say a nice fat 9% interest rate would probably find some really good balance and increased Canadians productiveness 🤠
chives-a widely cultivated small Eurasian plant related to the onion, with purple-pink flowers and dense tufts of long tubular leaves that are used as a culinary herb. Regrows after harvest. Canadian chive - a Canadian investor plagued by greed and FOMO that rushes into the Chinese stock market.
I agree with Rich on pumping money into new cities. Especially if you can go in early and buy up the land and create a master plan. You can sell land to developers to build and set aside larger areas for future needs and just make that a park at first. Think of how cheap transit would be to build if they already owned the land and had a route that they could be basically just get a dozer to do a couple passes to flatten out certain areas. Same thing with bike paths. Land for schools could be set aside. Then even for zoning you'd have more European style apartments closer to the city center, row housing would be next and then detached houses would be the furthest away. The government pays for the infrastructure and let the private developers build the homes. They would also just need to ensure that the new small city would have high speed fiber being put in as they go so people that maybe work for a company in a bigger city that can work from home can just live there. Alberta would be killer for that if they could do that all along the Rockies. The land is still fairly cheap and would be a great place for people that live a more active lifestyle. For the money they are spending just on that Green Line they could build out multiple towns. If they try to build everything along one route (like highway 22 in Alberta) it would also be possible to eventually just put a rail line in that connects everything to Calgary so when people want to go into the city they just jump on a train. Europe has already figured out how to do this. We just need to take what they have done and learned and do the same thing.
The creation of any new housing is getting more expensive day by day as everybody wants a piece of the profit, taxes and whatever else. New always cost more and has gone up a lot faster - since when I was building a bunch of new houses in the eighties. Living spaces are getting smaller and smaller by the minute and a housing starts and will soon be measured by the door or even closet door. The price to income ratio is so out of whack in Canada and most other places - it is not funny. Canada has low wages vs home prices, yes but compared to many places in Europe such as Portugal where I am now, Hungary, Poland and many other countries - wages are lower, many things cost more - not all things mind you. In places where people want to live - prices have been driven up by outsiders - as has happened in Canada. In remote areas say in Hungary and Poland for example - prices are dirt cheap and many countries are seeing populations shrink. The problem in Canada is not unique and as much as I dislike our PM I cannot blame everything on him. Just most of it through reactionary poorly planned governing and not thinking of what the consequences of their policies might be. The latest - throw everything at it and hope some of it sticks and wins an election policy changes won't help those who need it most but will give the haves like many of us here more. Our svelt friend Ron the Mortgage guy brought up a lot of good issues on the last podcast.
Love my weekly loonie hour discussion, thank you guys. I think a major problem that the BoC will be facing is meeting their duel mandate of stable prices and maximum employment. The government has juiced up the economy via human stimulus. However adding this many people into a weakening economy will guarentee that the BoC will be dealing with an intentionally sharp rise in unemployment. I don't think think they can bring the unemployment rate to a level which they deem acceptable without having the inflation rate run above target. The scenarios: A) BoC can bring the unemployment rate down low, the trade off is above target inflation. B) the BoC can have low inflation, but high unemployment C) the BoC can fail at both mandates by having slightly above target inflation, and slightly high unemployment D) both the inflation and maximum employment mandate is met. Which option will they chose? Or do you believe a "soft landing" can be attained by the BoC meeting both mandates? Join the conversation. My thoughts: The longer we have to depend on these low rates, and the further we diverge from the strength of the US, it will eventually end with a quickening pace of lower living standards, higher inflation, higher rates, higher unemployment, weaker currency and weaker productivity. The lower rates now are just a bandaid solution which will worsen things later. The BoC should be cautious not to cut too quickly, but the only problem is, they don't serve the best interests of the people. If they did, they would learn from the mistakes they just made and cut a lot less and slower than expected. It was the fear of deflation which led to 8% inflation. Now it seems as if they are repeating the exact same "mistake" again. Ever more so in the US, the fed is essentially signalling that they don't care about keeping inflation low, they signalled this with a 50 basis point cut when there was no emergency.
The real question is who has the real decision making power? The province or the muni? The greatest power should be closest to the affected voter, not from on high. And remember, just because the prov gov said one thing doesn't mean the muni can't fight back - see Burnaby quadrupling the fees on multiple family permits... get rid of those fees!!!
Even K O'leary mentioned they originally wanted to locate their data centre close to Calgary but ended up in the Dakota's, faster permitting and Indigenous cooperation etc. etc etc
Interest rate are coming down with middle class having no liquidity and low level of savings. In other words top 1% will be grabbing assets at astronomical rates and get great returns in next 5 year. Wealth gaps will widen even further...
And what is your point? People complain when they go up and I suppose some complain when they come down. Canada is far from the only country screwed by the C-19 event. Check out buying a home in Germany or France. Note; The entire planet is not doing well financially
@@ethimself5064c-19 didn't cause the mess, the coordinated response to it did. It's like when the politicians pass the buck and blame Putin and corporate greed.
The BC plan to basically become your landlord I think is a way of them creating "government housing" without having to build it. Essentially it will cost billions to put into practice, and now your landlords are both the government and the bank, but then the hope is that bc home prices continue to rise at this pace, giving a huge investment appreciation to the government over time. Like if home prices double the government just made a 100% profit on their investment. But it's a gamble... Will people maintain their properties knowing they owe so much to the government in the end? What happens in a foreclosure? It's a very interesting risk/reward proposition for the government, and may actually make them want to reduce construction for home price profitability... It may also allow most people in BC to actually own (if there was enough housing for sale), but they will always be indebted to the government.
Corporations are operating in order to extract money from the general public and accumulate it, grow, and then accumulate even more over time. The general public wants to accumulate so they can spend more, for the most part. If people are losing savings, have reduced income, and their money is losing value, of course now we have the situation where "liquidity needs to be injected".
There is no such thing as an assilum seeker there is only other countries that treat there citizens worse than our government treats us they are not our responsibility
By contrast, oil demand in advanced economies is expected to continue its decades-long decline, falling from close to 46 million barrels per day in 2023 to less than 43 million barrels per day by 2030. Apart from during the pandemic, the last time oil demand from advanced economies was that low was 1991.
@@diasx12 2034- 10 years, or 2030 by some prominent forecaster. " While some prominent forecasters have predicted oil demand will peak by 2030, our researchers expect oil usage will increase through 2034. That’s in part because of demand for oil from emerging markets in Asia and demand for petrochemicals, according to a report by Goldman Sachs Research."
The BC government's 40% housing financing plan is very different from the Federal Government's program to just throw money at first-time home buyers to bid up housing prices in the open market. The main point of BC's plan with the 40% loan/equity thing is to support housing construction. It makes the numbers pencil again for new developments from the developer's point-of-view by having the government come in with cash. The caveat, of course, is that developments that are done through this program can only be sold to first-time home buyers who are citizens or permanent residents. From the buyer's point-of-view, they only get access to the government financing to buy a place in participating developments, not the wider open market. This eliminates private REAL ESTATE "INVOSTOORS" from the process entirely, whom up until now everyone assumed were the only ones who could support new builds. This is the BC government connecting new housing to people who will buy homes to live in and we should be all for it.
27:20 no one would have thought that 20 years ago oil and gas in canada would be shut down, why isnt other contries tgat have large supplies expirts if oil and gas shutting down!
On that 40% deal did they mention what happens if the value falls? If the government doesn't absorb 40% of the losses that would mean your losses are amplified roughly 166%.
@@Casey-qm1nd Yeah exactly, it's our crushingly high taxes that would be paying for it. This is a massive gamble on every taxpayer's behalf considering Canadian housing hit an all-time peak in real terms like 2 years ago. But hey, not to worry, housing always goes up right?
My perception: housing is the system collateral in Canada and therefore systemically important to the banks and larger economy. So… nominal flat RE pricing with wage inflation as a result of all the printing.
Okay so I just want to say this. I’m going to stand on my opinion but I’m happy for anyone to jump in and tell me otherwise. Everyone has been saying there will be a crash… March 2025 will make it 5 years since COVID. If rates come down, and they have to come down, that alone will reignite the market. Perhaps not by 2025, but definitely by 2026 or 2027. The fact still remains that homes aren’t being built fast enough for our growing population. I think we may be headed for some sort of housing crisis which will lead to an even bigger bubble and there’s nothing anyone can do about it. Economy is bad so, doesn’t matter who is in power after Trudeau- they will have to inject money into or system or print money to support the bad decisions and we will be in debt for a long time. I just can’t unsee it! I think too many people are comparing this time with the 1980s, 1990s etc. it’s different. Foreclosures/Power of sale is still pretty low compared to any other time in history. Now with rates coming down - anyone who held on this long will finally get some relief and the ones with lower rates might only see their renewals in the 3% range. As time passes, your dollar will be worth less and less unless you buy a home or buy some stocks. I just can’t imagine it any other way : (
The funniest part of this AI takeover is that people really believe we will put 4-5 of these Nvidia GPUs, a really advanced server level computer, in a man sized robot and somehow supply that with enough power to also run the robotics. We have nothing to worry about! Not even mentioning diminishing returns. The one job we thought was for sure gonna be taken over by AI, taxi driver, is basically a dumpster fire... You know, when it crashes into a dumpster!
But lets be real, people are speculating on AI. Many buyers of Nvidia GPUs and AI technologies are likely people who have no plans to turn them on, they are just hoping the demand will get so high that they will be able to sell them for 5 times more. If it doesn't pan out...
@@dustinvanravenswaay9960 I can’t say but I was told 2 months in advance that it was probable and then it was confirmed in July that it happened. You obviously don’t need to take my word for it. Just file it away as something you heard and see what happens.
Hey Guys, it’s time to start dropping one tip a show with enough timing and back-up detail for your listeners to build confidence that your not just assessing markets accurately but that you are thinking correctly about what to do about them. This is especially true WRT Icecap. I’ve had boomers profile open since last week, but I just don’t know if he can manage $? Btw - nice point on asset prices can keep going up…if currencies debase…including stocks. But do earnings ultimately matter then?
Hi Mark. For regulatory reasons, no one is allowed to (or should) provide investment tips to the public. I've been managing money for over 30 years. Happy to chat directly if you'd like.
You guys are amazing! I've been your fan since the first episode! However, I think you need to start improving the order of conversation, there seems to be a competition for mic time and sometimes there are interruptions that break the flow. I am not criticizing, will continue to be your listener, just sharing my observations.
As long as debt can be roll over, as long as the cb are printing money and only bailing out banks and government debt, this bubble wont pop. Only a credit event that will create a recession or depression can pop this housing bubble
Or 10% unemployment. In August the amount of jobs in Canada increased by 20,000 and we let 95,000 new people into the country. Think about that, and how many months in a row that needs to happen for the system to fall apart.
Rates are not the problem the price to income will dictate housing sales along the employment figures none which helps young people get in to the market also every cost of owning a home has gone up and April 1 the Carbon tax goes up again
The government needs growth so they are pumping the housing market. They don't stop until the housing goes up. Let's wait to see a bit of deflection and everyone including Tiff will join the party
Private companies could do it if the government rolled back all the ridiculous fees and taxes introduced over the last 20-30 years on new construction. It's almost criminal how much of the cost of a new house goes to the government.
The stress test is supposed to make sure someone can afford their mortgage if rates increase. What then is the difference between a first time home buyer who has to qualify at the rate plus 2% and the person who has held the mortgage for 3 years whose income may have changed. This is so unfair and nonsensical it makes me sick.
18:00 the BC 40% financing should apply to 55+ existing owners, especially retired. You could be 55 and have 15 years left on your mortgage and your mortgage is 25% of your equity, let the BC government buy out that 25% and then you have more money to put in the economy.
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Hi Can you invite very interested person louis vincent gave from gavekal a different perspective of China Would be interested discussion with you Thanks
I am a regular listener to this pod which is one and only dealing w Canadian economy and politics. Just wish Rich to control/stop the constant giggling as it makes an Uber intelligent man look boyish and annoying. I dont mean it as a hate because it's not, but feel that Rich's incredibly smart comments will land solid when delivered without the non-stop giggling and laughing.
The bank crisis isn't over yet, and experienced individuals know credit crises don't end quickly. Some find it amusing that some think it's resolved, but in reality, we're headed for a major economic downturn due to this credit contraction.
After the '08 financial crisis, I've learned not to trust corporations. Since 2020, I've been investing with a financial advisor and have had no major losses, so I'm not going back to relying solely on banks.
Many overlook that banks are profit-driven businesses. I don't trust keeping a large sum in a bank, instead, I invest with guidance, enjoy the benefits, and save for retirement.
How can I reach this advisers of yours? because I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach on my savings?
My CFA ’’ Sharon Ann Meny, a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market..
Thank you for the recommendation. I'll send her an email, and I hope I'm able to reach her.
I don't agree with Rich on much, but the man's got crystal clear observations about the energy industry and I absolutely love that he's unwavering in those convictions.
You guys sitting here sweating over a couple curse words, now I HAVE to watch with Ron Butler from last week. Keeping that guy in the good graces of the language police is an impossibility!😄
You guys are on a roll. 2 weeks in a row with awesome content. Love the show.
I agree. They’re are getting better because they are being more honest.
Been a regular Loonie Hour watcher for over a year. Love your show so much, it's a essential weekly listen
Thanks for the kind words - greatly appreciated!
Love the Rant Richard!👍
Energy Ministers should b shouting out our Oil and gas not dismissing it!
Love the Show!
Drill baby drill
Richard's rant is an awesome name for a little segment in the show LOL
Some commenters here for the longest time were saying that Chinese overseas buyers were going to support the real estate market. Now you can plainly see that they were wrong. It's now only a matter of time till the market finds its floor without overseas Chinese buyers.
Condos aside, the market will be better next year. More sales and slightly better or flat prices.
Who knows, some may be forced to sell there 'homes' to repatriate that currency. Crazy times lead to crazy outcomes.
Great coverage on the stress test changes and BC housing support-lots of important shifts happening in the market right now!
You guys are real. Thats why I tune in. Theres other channels for lies.
Here for the rants!
First SVB, then signature bank, and then first republic bank, these are all the signs of yet another global economy downtrend, and 2008 market crash 2.0, so my question is do I still save in the United States dollar, or is this a good time to buy gold and stocks?
Supply side can be fixed with deportation.
It will never happen. They infected the country too deep
Also fixed with 20% interest rates
@@billrussell1933 well we saw fires starting to spike in neighbourhoods at 7% interest rates, so 20% would probably just bring scorched earth, which is no good.
But deportation and let’s say a nice fat 9% interest rate would probably find some really good balance and increased Canadians productiveness 🤠
Deport who?
@@billrussell1933 people overstaying their work and student visas, people falsely claiming asylum to bypass the immigration system.
chives-a widely cultivated small Eurasian plant related to the onion, with purple-pink flowers and dense tufts of long tubular leaves that are used as a culinary herb. Regrows after harvest.
Canadian chive - a Canadian investor plagued by greed and FOMO that rushes into the Chinese stock market.
An average space heater is 1500W on high 750 on mid low setting. You can heat 10’x10’ room with a Nvidia GPU
This reminds me of the stories from the dirty 30s when certain items were used for purposes other than they were intended, like Bennet Buggies lol
Steve’s quick comments always make me laugh out loud at work.
Interesting point at the end about wages going up causing investments in productivity.
I agree with Rich on pumping money into new cities. Especially if you can go in early and buy up the land and create a master plan. You can sell land to developers to build and set aside larger areas for future needs and just make that a park at first. Think of how cheap transit would be to build if they already owned the land and had a route that they could be basically just get a dozer to do a couple passes to flatten out certain areas. Same thing with bike paths. Land for schools could be set aside. Then even for zoning you'd have more European style apartments closer to the city center, row housing would be next and then detached houses would be the furthest away. The government pays for the infrastructure and let the private developers build the homes. They would also just need to ensure that the new small city would have high speed fiber being put in as they go so people that maybe work for a company in a bigger city that can work from home can just live there. Alberta would be killer for that if they could do that all along the Rockies. The land is still fairly cheap and would be a great place for people that live a more active lifestyle. For the money they are spending just on that Green Line they could build out multiple towns. If they try to build everything along one route (like highway 22 in Alberta) it would also be possible to eventually just put a rail line in that connects everything to Calgary so when people want to go into the city they just jump on a train. Europe has already figured out how to do this. We just need to take what they have done and learned and do the same thing.
What you're suggesting makes too much sense and thus will never happen in the next couple of governments.
The creation of any new housing is getting more expensive day by day as everybody wants a piece of the profit, taxes and whatever else. New always cost more and has gone up a lot faster - since when I was building a bunch of new houses in the eighties. Living spaces are getting smaller and smaller by the minute and a housing starts and will soon be measured by the door or even closet door. The price to income ratio is so out of whack in Canada and most other places - it is not funny. Canada has low wages vs home prices, yes but compared to many places in Europe such as Portugal where I am now, Hungary, Poland and many other countries - wages are lower, many things cost more - not all things mind you. In places where people want to live - prices have been driven up by outsiders - as has happened in Canada. In remote areas say in Hungary and Poland for example - prices are dirt cheap and many countries are seeing populations shrink. The problem in Canada is not unique and as much as I dislike our PM I cannot blame everything on him. Just most of it through reactionary poorly planned governing and not thinking of what the consequences of their policies might be. The latest - throw everything at it and hope some of it sticks and wins an election policy changes won't help those who need it most but will give the haves like many of us here more. Our svelt friend Ron the Mortgage guy brought up a lot of good issues on the last podcast.
Can't we just cut immigration? We're full
Love my weekly loonie hour discussion, thank you guys.
I think a major problem that the BoC will be facing is meeting their duel mandate of stable prices and maximum employment.
The government has juiced up the economy via human stimulus. However adding this many people into a weakening economy will guarentee that the BoC will be dealing with an intentionally sharp rise in unemployment.
I don't think think they can bring the unemployment rate to a level which they deem acceptable without having the inflation rate run above target.
The scenarios:
A) BoC can bring the unemployment rate down low, the trade off is above target inflation.
B) the BoC can have low inflation, but high unemployment
C) the BoC can fail at both mandates by having slightly above target inflation, and slightly high unemployment
D) both the inflation and maximum employment mandate is met.
Which option will they chose? Or do you believe a "soft landing" can be attained by the BoC meeting both mandates? Join the conversation.
My thoughts: The longer we have to depend on these low rates, and the further we diverge from the strength of the US, it will eventually end with a quickening pace of lower living standards, higher inflation, higher rates, higher unemployment, weaker currency and weaker productivity. The lower rates now are just a bandaid solution which will worsen things later. The BoC should be cautious not to cut too quickly, but the only problem is, they don't serve the best interests of the people. If they did, they would learn from the mistakes they just made and cut a lot less and slower than expected. It was the fear of deflation which led to 8% inflation. Now it seems as if they are repeating the exact same "mistake" again. Ever more so in the US, the fed is essentially signalling that they don't care about keeping inflation low, they signalled this with a 50 basis point cut when there was no emergency.
Loved the geopolitical convo this ep
29:17 YES RICH SHOOT BACK!
also i feel like ever since the summer began, Keith has gotten funnier
The real question is who has the real decision making power? The province or the muni? The greatest power should be closest to the affected voter, not from on high. And remember, just because the prov gov said one thing doesn't mean the muni can't fight back - see Burnaby quadrupling the fees on multiple family permits... get rid of those fees!!!
The government should be paid on commission. Then they would stop spending our money.
lol has to be paid back when they're voted out of office 🤣
Even K O'leary mentioned they originally wanted to locate their data centre close to Calgary but ended up in the Dakota's, faster permitting and Indigenous cooperation etc. etc etc
No 49er predictions!?!
SF 38 NE 23
Interest rate are coming down with middle class having no liquidity and low level of savings. In other words top 1% will be grabbing assets at astronomical rates and get great returns in next 5 year. Wealth gaps will widen even further...
Pretty much
Yeah, that’s why I’ve been shoring up cash over past few months and just started accumulating. This is gonna be “The K-shaped Economy” on steroids 😬
And what is your point? People complain when they go up and I suppose some complain when they come down. Canada is far from the only country screwed by the C-19 event. Check out buying a home in Germany or France. Note; The entire planet is not doing well financially
@@ethimself5064c-19 didn't cause the mess, the coordinated response to it did. It's like when the politicians pass the buck and blame Putin and corporate greed.
@@TheNewSchoolGamerwhat asset classes are you focusing on?
Yhhhhhhhh Ricky boy F BOMB!!!!! lol
Since 2019 my monthly expenses has averaged around an ounce of Gold 🤔 so in 2021 I purchased a few decades worth in advance 😉
The BC plan to basically become your landlord I think is a way of them creating "government housing" without having to build it. Essentially it will cost billions to put into practice, and now your landlords are both the government and the bank, but then the hope is that bc home prices continue to rise at this pace, giving a huge investment appreciation to the government over time. Like if home prices double the government just made a 100% profit on their investment. But it's a gamble... Will people maintain their properties knowing they owe so much to the government in the end? What happens in a foreclosure? It's a very interesting risk/reward proposition for the government, and may actually make them want to reduce construction for home price profitability... It may also allow most people in BC to actually own (if there was enough housing for sale), but they will always be indebted to the government.
Build affordable housing is never profitable
Serfs
@@Observer168disagree with that.
@@BellaBella-jw9eftry building it
Government doing everything for more housing except stop giving tax breaks for landlords 😑
Corporations are operating in order to extract money from the general public and accumulate it, grow, and then accumulate even more over time. The general public wants to accumulate so they can spend more, for the most part. If people are losing savings, have reduced income, and their money is losing value, of course now we have the situation where "liquidity needs to be injected".
There is no such thing as an assilum seeker there is only other countries that treat there citizens worse than our government treats us they are not our responsibility
By contrast, oil demand in advanced economies is expected to continue its decades-long decline, falling from close to 46 million barrels per day in 2023 to less than 43 million barrels per day by 2030. Apart from during the pandemic, the last time oil demand from advanced economies was that low was 1991.
Ok, and the rest of the world?
@@diasx12 2034- 10 years, or 2030 by some prominent forecaster.
" While some prominent forecasters have predicted oil demand will peak by 2030, our researchers expect oil usage will increase through 2034. That’s in part because of demand for oil from emerging markets in Asia and demand for petrochemicals, according to a report by Goldman Sachs Research."
We use a billion barrels of oil every 10-11 days, I wonder whats the chances of ever running out
The BC government's 40% housing financing plan is very different from the Federal Government's program to just throw money at first-time home buyers to bid up housing prices in the open market.
The main point of BC's plan with the 40% loan/equity thing is to support housing construction. It makes the numbers pencil again for new developments from the developer's point-of-view by having the government come in with cash. The caveat, of course, is that developments that are done through this program can only be sold to first-time home buyers who are citizens or permanent residents. From the buyer's point-of-view, they only get access to the government financing to buy a place in participating developments, not the wider open market. This eliminates private REAL ESTATE "INVOSTOORS" from the process entirely, whom up until now everyone assumed were the only ones who could support new builds. This is the BC government connecting new housing to people who will buy homes to live in and we should be all for it.
If gridlocked, maybe build public transportation!
27:20 no one would have thought that 20 years ago oil and gas in canada would be shut down, why isnt other contries tgat have large supplies expirts if oil and gas shutting down!
"renewable" energy is another example of the Left MUST have equality at all costs.
On that 40% deal did they mention what happens if the value falls? If the government doesn't absorb 40% of the losses that would mean your losses are amplified roughly 166%.
Yes, the Government will absorb 40% of the losses if it is sold at a loss.
@@paulosssilvataxpayers will*
@@Casey-qm1nd Yeah exactly, it's our crushingly high taxes that would be paying for it. This is a massive gamble on every taxpayer's behalf considering Canadian housing hit an all-time peak in real terms like 2 years ago. But hey, not to worry, housing always goes up right?
My perception: housing is the system collateral in Canada and therefore systemically important to the banks and larger economy. So… nominal flat RE pricing with wage inflation as a result of all the printing.
Okay so I just want to say this. I’m going to stand on my opinion but I’m happy for anyone to jump in and tell me otherwise. Everyone has been saying there will be a crash… March 2025 will make it 5 years since COVID. If rates come down, and they have to come down, that alone will reignite the market. Perhaps not by 2025, but definitely by 2026 or 2027. The fact still remains that homes aren’t being built fast enough for our growing population. I think we may be headed for some sort of housing crisis which will lead to an even bigger bubble and there’s nothing anyone can do about it. Economy is bad so, doesn’t matter who is in power after Trudeau- they will have to inject money into or system or print money to support the bad decisions and we will be in debt for a long time. I just can’t unsee it! I think too many people are comparing this time with the 1980s, 1990s etc. it’s different. Foreclosures/Power of sale is still pretty low compared to any other time in history. Now with rates coming down - anyone who held on this long will finally get some relief and the ones with lower rates might only see their renewals in the 3% range. As time passes, your dollar will be worth less and less unless you buy a home or buy some stocks. I just can’t imagine it any other way : (
The funniest part of this AI takeover is that people really believe we will put 4-5 of these Nvidia GPUs, a really advanced server level computer, in a man sized robot and somehow supply that with enough power to also run the robotics.
We have nothing to worry about! Not even mentioning diminishing returns.
The one job we thought was for sure gonna be taken over by AI, taxi driver, is basically a dumpster fire... You know, when it crashes into a dumpster!
Rich with the Campagnolo. Good man.
How long is it again before the machines begin harvesting humans for the energy they need to consume? I can’t remember what year that was!
Depends on which sci fi dystopia you subscribe to.
Quit self-censoring guys!
Wilkinson is just talking his book. Either that or he is doing his level best to hurt oil shares to buy at a low.
48:23 I’m getting out of public sector debt.. so rates rise but somehow the private sector is fine?
If zoning changed, wouldn’t property tax increase to reflect value changes ?
Love the cows Rich
But lets be real, people are speculating on AI. Many buyers of Nvidia GPUs and AI technologies are likely people who have no plans to turn them on, they are just hoping the demand will get so high that they will be able to sell them for 5 times more.
If it doesn't pan out...
I heard Russia created sentient ai in early July but it’s not known in the general public. Sophia/sonya is the name , Russian for wisdom.
@@davidrockefeller2007where did you hear this??
@@dustinvanravenswaay9960 I can’t say but I was told 2 months in advance that it was probable and then it was confirmed in July that it happened. You obviously don’t need to take my word for it. Just file it away as something you heard and see what happens.
@@davidrockefeller2007 Russians for the most part still using T-72 in Ukraine war, dont believe their propaganda
loonie hour battle re.....al. lol lol
Hey Guys, it’s time to start dropping one tip a show with enough timing and back-up detail for your listeners to build confidence that your not just assessing markets accurately but that you are thinking correctly about what to do about them. This is especially true WRT Icecap. I’ve had boomers profile open since last week, but I just don’t know if he can manage $?
Btw - nice point on asset prices can keep going up…if currencies debase…including stocks. But do earnings ultimately matter then?
Hi Mark. For regulatory reasons, no one is allowed to (or should) provide investment tips to the public. I've been managing money for over 30 years. Happy to chat directly if you'd like.
You guys are amazing! I've been your fan since the first episode! However, I think you need to start improving the order of conversation, there seems to be a competition for mic time and sometimes there are interruptions that break the flow. I am not criticizing, will continue to be your listener, just sharing my observations.
As long as debt can be roll over, as long as the cb are printing money and only bailing out banks and government debt, this bubble wont pop. Only a credit event that will create a recession or depression can pop this housing bubble
Or 10% unemployment.
In August the amount of jobs in Canada increased by 20,000 and we let 95,000 new people into the country.
Think about that, and how many months in a row that needs to happen for the system to fall apart.
Rates are not the problem the price to income will dictate housing sales along the employment figures none which helps young people get in to the market also every cost of owning a home has gone up and April 1 the Carbon tax goes up again
It always eventually corrects to correlate with income.
The government needs growth so they are pumping the housing market. They don't stop until the housing goes up. Let's wait to see a bit of deflection and everyone including Tiff will join the party
thats a quarter in the twinky jar for the F bomb Rich
I have TLT Dec calls. Shit is slowly hitting the fan.
Go on
Who else is willing to provide affordable housing besides the government?
Private companies could do it if the government rolled back all the ridiculous fees and taxes introduced over the last 20-30 years on new construction. It's almost criminal how much of the cost of a new house goes to the government.
its fucking understatement!!!!!!
I'm still waiting for my webinar invite Boomer!
It's going out this weekend. Email me to be on the list. Thanks.
Just remember Rich. If you drop F bombs I cant listen to you while they are in the car and they wont be able to get their financial education....
Sorry!!!!
The stress test is supposed to make sure someone can afford their mortgage if rates increase. What then is the difference between a first time home buyer who has to qualify at the rate plus 2% and the person who has held the mortgage for 3 years whose income may have changed. This is so unfair and nonsensical it makes me sick.
People still need to qualify, try thinking harder
saddle bag We call them paniers
Cow's of capitalism
Can you time stamp please so that i can skip the small talk at the start?
First view! ❤
Try again
540th here
FIRST!
18:00 the BC 40% financing should apply to 55+ existing owners, especially retired. You could be 55 and have 15 years left on your mortgage and your mortgage is 25% of your equity, let the BC government buy out that 25% and then you have more money to put in the economy.
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Hi
Can you invite very interested person louis vincent gave from gavekal a different perspective of China
Would be interested discussion with you
Thanks
Hi there. I know gavekal. They're known as panda huggers and unlikely to ever change view.
BTC is looking good! If Canadians actually held! I'm not recommending anything else...
I am a regular listener to this pod which is one and only dealing w Canadian economy and politics. Just wish Rich to control/stop the constant giggling as it makes an Uber intelligent man look boyish and annoying. I dont mean it as a hate because it's not, but feel that Rich's incredibly smart comments will land solid when delivered without the non-stop giggling and laughing.
Youre the kind of person who votes based on hair style
It's called personality. Maybe grow one.
Go get a character LOL
Cut rates, let's bring on that 2nd wave of currency debasement.