Fed Chair Powell Just Taught A Masterclass On Investing
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 เม.ย. 2024
- In brief remarks today, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell all but took an interest rate cut in the near term off the table. In doing so, he taught us a very important lesson about investing.
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ABOUT ME
While still working as a trial attorney in the securities field, I started writing about personal finance and investing In 2007. In 2013 I started the Doughroller Money Podcast, which has been downloaded millions of times. Today I'm the Deputy Editor of Forbes Advisor, managing a growing team of editors and writers that produce content to help readers make the most of their money.
I'm also the author of Retire Before Mom and Dad--The Simple Numbers Behind a Lifetime of Financial Freedom (amzn.to/3by10EE)
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DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial adviser. These videos are for educational purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. Your investment and other financial decisions are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research and seek professional advice as necessary. I am merely sharing my opinions.
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Purchasing a stock may seem straightforward, but selecting the correct stock without a proven strategy can be exceedingly challenging. I've been working on expanding my $210K portfolio for a while, and my primary obstacle is the lack of clear entry and exit strategies. Any advice on this matter would be greatly appreciated.
The professionals presently control the market since they not only have the essential business strategy but also have access to inside information that the general public is not aware of.
You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a CFA, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 9%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an analyst.
I’ve been down a ton, I’m only holding on so I can recoup, I really need help, who is this investment-adviser that guides you
Laila artine kassardjian' is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
Blcktken300 gang in the house! Thanks for the analysis!
So the good old advice from Bogle remains true: "Don't do something, just stand there".
😅
Do it. Blcktken300 already in my bags. I had a Blcktken300 after ( your should I buy ) and I agreed and bought. I'm looking to stack more, too.
Rob, thank you for your thoughts.
Great video Rob, the voice of reason as always
SO glad you released this video in particular Blcktken300. I was accumulating AR and then saw your video last year saying that you see Blcktken300 may hit 300-400 and then you changed your view. Great and very informative!!! Thanks
I'm DCAing in Blcktken300 as well. ETH heavier DCA and ALGO. I'm taking your advice and starting Google tomorrow with a 50 dollar purchase and continuing Microsoft and Apple. VTI and VOO on another app and longterm portfolio. Here we go family!
I hope your back feels better soon! Thanks for the videos.
It is getting a little better every day. Thanks!
@@rob_berger do leg lifts or crunches to strengthen abs, this will help your back.
As Yogi Berra said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
Excellent content, as usual. Hope your back is trending in the right direction.
Not that it matters, but this saying is apocryphal. It seems to be originally a Danish saying. 😊
@Berger-channel this is an embarrassingly bad scam. Also I can not see this Ron saying “my digits” 😂
I would also add Yogi's perspective on timing... "It ain't until it's over"
good info, thanks
Thanks. This Fed speak chronological order was clear to follow.
As always, great video! 👍
thanks Rob!
Thanks Rob, I wish more people had a better understanding of this.
Great video. Im a huge Blcktken300 fan and love your videos on it.
Great Video!
It is a shell game with noting under the cups....
Yep. Stay the course. Don't change what you are doing based on anything in the news.
Agreed. Have a solid diversified portfolio in place and do absolutely nothing with all the predictions. Thanks Rob!
My Blcktken300 shorts are doing pretty well and I plan to hold much longer.
Great big picture analysis!
Hi Rob - thank you for sharing your thought process.very interesting! European Central Bank (ECB) are even more confusing, as they change the mesge on a weekly basis.
Thanks for the information. I just based on the offered rates to determine the allocation and roll up the matured treasury bills/notes/bonds. Last bought 10-year treasury when it yields 5% and if the yield gets up to 5% again will buy more.
Hey Rob
Great content as usual. Can you do a video on some portfolio examples with specific bonds, stocks etc , that would withstand any interest rate fluctuations that you speak about in the video? Thank you
Hey Rob, thanks for your content! Have watched quite a few videos of yours at this point but was curious if you have or will share your portfolio breakdown? You made reference to it today, so it somewhat intrigued me!
Here's what I have from a video he did at the beginning of 2024: 1/1/24 Rob’s portfolio - 75/25 goal
Stocks: 20% individual stocks, 80% funds ETF/MF - 43% US in VTI, 10% in small cap fund, 18.5% INT in VXUS (goal is 20% including emerging markets), SCHD (Roth accts with embedded gains), VFWAX (INT), VSMAX (small cap fund with embedded gains), VTSAX (MF version of VTI with LOTS of gains). Individual stocks - AAPL, BRKB, BOA, WFL
Bonds with cash: Cash 1-2%, 8.5% nominal bonds, 10% TIPS. TIP (ishares tips ETF), SCHP (he will combine all these bond funds), FIRDX; BND (nom bonds, not inflation protected), cash and T-bills
Blcktken300 anticipation is building to a fever pitch! 😥
Great video Rob. I think the bond market, like the stock market, is a "random walk." It's impossible to know future inflation and other future events. As you said, prepare as best you can for the things you can control and stay the course. Thanks for the great info.
Great analysis, clear and concise, thanks. I'll keep buying six months T bills.
Inflation is talked about in such an abstract way, but it's basically just how much we're charged for goods, right?. I don't see people shopping around for the best price like they used too. it's gotten worse ever decade of my life. People will spend 50k on a kitchen remodel that increases your home value by 10k at most or spend way too much on some plastic junk. Why would prices fall when there's so many shopping addicts willing to pay whatever price.
It’s the low interest rates which allow them to borrow cheaply to throw that type of money at things (malinvestment).
In the modern system, all fiat currency is effectively debt. All currency is created from borrowing and currency is destroyed when it is repaid.
The more currency you have chasing goods and services the higher the price. It’s the expansion of the money supply through debt that is the actual inflation, the price increases are a symptom of the inflation.
When credit is constrained and liquidity is decreased prices drop. Just look at real estate after the 2008 crash, you could buy real estate cheap because no one could borrow (i.e. you had less currency (debt) chasing that particular good).
Inflation is the printing of money. It's a side effect of a government that overspends. The debt to GDP ratio is just as high as it was during World War 2. The difference is that we aren't in a world war and Truman, Eisenhower and Kennedy and their respective Congresses cut spending and actually went through the formal process and passed a budget. We haven't went through a budget process since the first GH Bush in the early 90s. Instead we have "passed" continuing resolutions that increases our borrowing limit. The current administration signs executive orders that further limit our exports like oil which further reduces revenue and then gives financial aid (more borrowing) to other countries and flies in 400k people (this year and counting) from other countries into ours further burdening our government budgets, hospitals and similar.
The Federal reserve can try to cut interest, but Fedzilla has to cut the growth in spending as well. Interest alone on the national debt will take up 43% of the receipts in 2024. Cutting jobs from rising interest rates will further reduce tax revenue which in turn requires further borrowing and offering attractive rates to international and domestic investors.
The IMF has done a study of countries with a Debt to GDP RATIO of 131 or higher. 51 of 52 if those countries defaulted on their debt. Japan was the only one that didn't default, but they suffered from what is known as a lost decade.
I'm not an economist. If you're interested in learning about inflation you may want to read/watch the Free to Choose series by economist Million Friedman. You can find it on you tube and other sites or you can get the book.
Great video and great point. Also, in fairness to the Fed, they maintained that projected rate cuts were data dependent all along. If anything, bond traders were ignoring the Fed’s warning about being data dependent when they were predicting 6 or 7 rate cuts in 2024. Just a small point, but sometimes I feel like the Fed catches heat when they don’t deserve it.
Rob, what is the avg duration of the nominal bonds you hold in your portfolio? Same question for TIPS pls.
Im betting Blcktken300 will perform well, it havent had a cycle yet and they have a strong community on both, and Blcktken300 update will make rollup fees even lower. Just my 2 cents. Great video goodvibes
Rates are not high or restrictive. They are normal. That is, normal for a government that is not running up debt at breakneck speed.
Thank you this was a great summary.
@RobBerger can you tell us more about having both bonds and Tips and when to purchase. I plan to research for your past posts too.
Kinda funny watching Rob's commentary about staying the course (agreed) then reading comments from folks about diving into REITs, TIPs etc
When you say regular bonds do you mean corporate bonds vs. treasury bonds? And bonds not in a index fund?
A really good video.
I thought I once heard you question whether "TIPS are worth the premium". For the non-equity portion of my portfolio, I've currently have more luck with money market funds with the remaining in Vanguard BND bond fund.
Fed has maintained their statement of a rate drop being in the “second half of the year” and only if the inflation data supports it at that time. People speculating on the drop happening sooner were not listening or were being willfully ignorant.
Now we just need to see the Blcktken300 price also move in the same direction as these charts. Up. Very Up.
Rob for your fixed income that includes TIPS are they individual TIPS or a TIPS mutual fund?
I think I’ve heard him say ETFs. Individual TIPS are a pain unless you’re saving for a specific need and for a specific time.
A bit of fear that I have is that some politician or office holder will replace Powell with someone that will comply with their pressure to bring back "low low" interest rates
didn't something like that happen with the preceding couple of FED chairs (either the chair replaced or brow beaten into relaxing policy) before the late Paul Volcker set things a bit straighter after being appointed FED chair?
I think more things that include certain government activities and "income redistributions" affect inflationary pressures than just interest rate policies
Rob, I totally agree with your point as to the difficulty in forecasting interest rates. However, the difficulty is in predicting when there will be a reversal in the trend of the rates. For example, the Fed was raising rates for about 15 months, starting in early 2022. Over the last few months, many people were foresting a trend reversal, but no one can nail down exactly when.
To me, this says when an investor is developing a portfolio, he should taken into account what the trend is in interest rates, not when a reverse may occur. As a case in point, starting about 40 years ago, many professional investment advisors were promoting the old 60%/40% stock/bond portfolio. Over the next few decades, that turned out to be good advice. However, a major contributor was that interest rates were in a 30-year decline, thus driving up bond values.
Right now, it is reasonable to believe that some time in the next 6-18 months, the Fed will drop interest rates and get them down around 3%-4%, the long term average within a couple years. So, now is a better time for an investor to take bond positions than early 2022.
And can someone please tell me why I need Int’l bond index fund? Or is that just a Vanguard thing?
BND
International bond and stocks are great for diversification. It's not just a Vanguard thing, but wise for every investor.
That's why I follow the Warren Buffett rule...for the average investor is to buy and hold a S&Ps 500 index fund or EFT and put 90% of your investment there and an buy and hold a short-term Gov't Bond fund and put 10% of your investment there-then the most important thing, and Warren Buffett added was to and [my words…just put your head in to a hole in the ground like an ostrich and ignore all the financial prognosticators.]
I like that the Fed isn't rushing into anything. A soft landing needs a long runway, right?
No cuts coming this year.
Means it gives me more time to put money in before they start cutting rates
As a near retiree, at what point (if ever) do we increase the holdings in 10 - 20 year treasuries to capture the higher rates?
Seems like they'll have to raise rates or our government will have to get its act together.
what do you mean by tips?
Treasury Inflation Protected Securities
Reminder that the Fed Chair is a political appointee.
what happen to your back?
Considering the Left’s extravagant giveaways, Chairman Powell has done a fine job.
Hey Rob, enthusiastic new fan of your channel here, looking forward to catching a live stream. I might email you beforehand with some details on my rather unusual circumstances... Greetings from (an American in) Switzerland :)
Predicting the future ain’t what it used to be
Time to buy more CD's!
😂yes 😅yes
I cannot seem to grasp the allure of TIPS, at least not in our current environment. It seems to me that I can make considerably more rolling 4-6 week T-bills and if inflation goes up, so will my T-bill yields (as I roll into new issues as other mature). The return on TIPS, unless I am missing something (and I freely admit that I might be), just seems dismal in comparison (5.3% vs. maybe 2.5% - judging from yields reported on secondary market TIPS) and even if you do get some extremely modest inflation protection with them, you could easily be better off from reaping the better yields on short term treasuries for now and maybe looking back at TIPS once the yield curve stabilizes. If somebody can enlighten me as to the error of my ways I would appreciate it.
TIPS yield are real. T bills are nominal. If inflation is say 3.5% right now, TIPS are 2.5+3.5%. yield on tips adjusts based on inflation like I bonds. Sure for now short term treasuries have better rates due to inverted yield curve.
@@bobby350z Thanks for the reply. I was not really able to see where the rates were adjusted for inflation so I wasn't understanding that their current yield is around 6%. Given that, I get it now. They work like I thought they should, but not how I thought they did. Or something like that. Anyway, that helps...thank again.
Hi Rob, I'm new to your channel, not sure if you covered that before, but what portfolios you would consider if you would not live in US? I live in Europe and I'm not so sure that investing 100% in US is a great idea for me.
The main different thing for me is the fx rate. I can invest in SP500, and it might do very well but if dollar weakens I might lose money!
Speaking of, do you have any views on dollar long term? There are many people on YT saying that dollar is crap. But I think they are not aware of the rest 170+ currencies and how they perform...
Long term asset allocation strategy informed by hisorical inflation rates leads me to have a minimum % rate and % of portfolio allocated to fixed income. At that rate and higher, rebuild the fixed income ladder. Lower, such as the extended period of near zero rates, illogical to invest in fixed income. By the time the media stated to invest, fixed income was about 1% lower. Strategy and history.
Yeah I have mixed feelings about the current rates and it's effect on the stock market. I dollar cost average and put money into the S&P every paycheck (automatic). I have been doing this for many years, but will only be doing it for about another 3 years, so on one hand I like being able to buy when it feels like the S&P has a lot of room to grown, but on the other hand every month that goes by with the S&P hovering around 5,000 makes me wonder how much it will go up in the next 3 years.
🤘
Did he mention DJT? 🤣
I've already rebalenced. I feel the market creeping down a bit.
But… what is your portfolio recommendation?
BND
I'm sorry to hear about this tragedy. I am certain it shall be rebuilt in due time.
Would you recommend 100% VT for a 30 year old US investor for their traditional and Roth IRA? Since this just shows how unpredictable the market is, is holding the stock market at global market cap weights truly the best option? Or does it make sense for US investors to hold a little more weight in US stocks for a home country bias?
VTI, VXUS, BND
I can’t buy salad dressing for less than $5.00. Something is wrong.
Mr. Rob, you tell me how they going to cut rates when we are 35 trillion in Debt, and just approved 60 billion more debt to give to Israel and Ukraine? Interest rates have no other direction than up
I suppose it's too much to ask for the Fed to not create the inflation in the first place.
Yes that is too much to ask, because inflation is vital to our retirement portfolios
Our government has to inflate its way out of the massive debt it has run up.
@@TonyCox1351Because you are married to the stock market.
♟💯
@@TonyCox1351yeah, you’ll need the inflation in your assets to pay the inflation in your costs 😂
Since interest rates are notoriously hard to predict it might be desirable to make investment choices reasonably independent of interest rate predictions,at least for longer term money not needed for spending in the next couple of years.
Inflation is still very much a problem and those saying that it is not are guilty of wishful thinking at the very least
Cutting the already not so high (factoring in the present inflation rate) interest rates would probably be a disaster.
There is probably a lot of politically motivated pressure put on Powell to cut interest rates but I think most of this pressure is on behalf of speculators who wish to use other people's money for less than the true worth of using that money.
As Warren Buffet has said, "never bet against the US economy"
Everything is a bet. Even TIPS are a bet on inflation dynamics.
@rob_berger I've heard you say it twice now, 50-50 mix of TIPS and BND as bond the portion of a traditional Vanguard three fund portfolio, but you never elaborate on the TIPS. Are you talking VTIP (keeping it all Vanguard) or something else?!? TIA
You can construct a TIPS ladder with a portion of your fixed allocation or use a TIPS fund/etf. I like the certain payout of a TIPS ladder.
Not only in investing, but almost any analysis of what the future will be is nothing more than speculation. Speculation is guessing. We wait and then react on every word that comes out from experts that don’t really know what is coming next. That’s why what happens often surprises us, but we in general, act on speculation from people who tell us what is coming that in actuality don’t know what is coming. This an argument for index investing and holding assets not invested solely in the stock market
10 cuts by September! Source: Guy at a taco stand told me.
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Very true, indeed.
I had initially planned to retire at 62, work part-time, and save money, but the impact of high prices on various goods and services has significantly disrupted my retirement plan. I'm worried about whether those who experienced the 2008 financial crisis had it easier than I currently am. The volatility of the stock market is a concern as my income has decreased, and I fear that I won't be able to contribute as much as before, potentially jeopardizing my retirement savings.
The increasing prices have impacted my plan to retire at 62, work part-time, and save for the future. I'm concerned about whether those who navigated the 2008 financial crisis had an easier time than I am currently experiencing. The combination of stock market volatility and a decrease in income is causing anxiety about whether I'll have sufficient funds for retirement.
This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over $800,000.
"they sort of predict"
Yeah, and they're wrong every time. Sort of, really, literally...wrong.
😂
forecasts are interesting but eventually useless as most are wrong. no different than 2022. i reread an article from early 2022 regarding fed rate increases a year and half later. they were thinking the fed may raise rates 1-2 times in 2022. fed raised rates 7 times. these are economists and "market experts". i usually didn't bother with the year ahead editions of The Economist but just paid attention to the actual current events from the regular issues. i also previously collected old issues of Forbes and reread them 2 yrs later to see what happened to their predictions and again most are wrong. stick with your plan.
They want unemployment above 8%
The financial entertainers live in a bubble.
I feel that is why they cannot predict. They do not go to the store or pump gas. What the middle wants is not in their playbook.
@@jabow1878 They give the illusion of knowledge that is unobtainable to profit off the illusion. 🐑
maybe a good opportunity to start or increase positions in good quality REITs, Utilities and even a bit of TLT if you have the right amount of patience + stomach ?
Election year, the current administration needs to show something, therefore probable rate cut by summer. Am I off? Thoughts?
just like inflation is transitory!!!.. 6 Rate cuts will become 1-2 rate hikes?!! LOL
Don't need any rate cuts. Save the dollar from the democraps spending.
3.5% inflation on paper, much higher to the average American. I hope rates don't get cut soon. I'm making 5.28% in my vanguard sweep fund:)
You are a 'Fed speaker' 🔊 or a 'bond vigilante' or both/what ? 😂
Anyone thinking that interest rates will come back down to the 3% range are chasing rainbows. That was an unfathomably and unprecedentedly low period only made possible by a long recovery period after the housing crash of '08 that almost caused permanent and incurable damage to the US economy. Under normal and good economic conditions, we will see 6-10% interest on mortgages.
I think what we are seeing is the impact of the changed CPI weighting methodology from 2yr to 1yr update starting base from 2021 in 2023 and now in 2024 to based on 2022. Resetting based on COVID years to now is going to give us some goofy calculations. The Fed is using data based on the supply chain inflation and labor disruptions from 2021-2022, which seems to be a recipe for disaster come second half of 2024 since US gdp growth declinedd 3.88% in 2022 from 2021 if the Fed is holding of decreasing rates or doesn't decrease, since monetary policy effects lag 4-29months.
In the face of uncertainty, do you lean towards conservative or aggressive investment strategies? 🤔💼
Isn't Fed Chair Powell the one that said "inflation is transitory"?
Wow the spambots are infesting this thread!
I was laughing when I saw the first nonsensical random comment with 200 likes...then saw #2... Then #3... Etc... and found it less funny 😅
Just watch the us3m and us6m to figure out what the fed rate will be.
By time Powell gets all his data, it will be too late...
Remember when everyone knew there would be a recession in 2023?
I understand the Boglehead idea of put a simple index portfolio together, bury it in the bottom box of your closet, and look at 20-30 years later... but when you really look at BND since data goes back to 2008, its a 2.63% annual growth rate IF you reinvested every dividend payout... way below inflation. How can one be happy with that, especially if its 40% or more of your portfolio.?. One can get 6.25% on a 5 year MYGA, 6% on agency bonds, 7% on preferreds, or just buy the 5 year tips at the auction on Thursday and get 2% over inflation..
You couldn’t get those rates in 2008. Beginning and ending dates matter and hindsight always shows “what paid the best”. I personally think some diversification on the bond side is a good idea. I used, CDs, I-bonds, TIPs and a total bond fund. YMMV.
Rob, “Stay the course, build a sturdy portfolio.”
Keep buying your REIT and bonds and small caps!
That’s your takeaway from higher rates for longer?