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Football betting | The 'secret' formula that predicts the outcome of a football match
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 22 พ.ค. 2020
- In a previous video, which you can view here: -
• Football Betting tips ...
We discussed coming up with a set of ratings for each football match, so if you were betting or Betfair trading on that football match you would have logical scientific basis on which to do so.
However, knowing that number didn't convert it into a percentage chance. If you are trying to place a value bet or trading this is useful as it will allow you to compare and contrast your favoured Betfair trading strategy or range that you wish to search for value.
The formula is quite simple but very effective and you can use it to reverse engineer match odds to work out how many goals a match is forecasting.
We discuss how I learn about it, how it is used and put a few caveats into the mix as well.
Seriously, this set of videos is a game changer for us mere mortals that follow you Peter. I genuinely appreciate the info contained in this trilogy. Thankyou.
Thanks for your comment. That was the sort of intention, to give people something of true value. So I'm glad you can see it's value.
Thanks Peter
Just starting to trade football. Tennis is so hard unless the serve is reliable
I came to one of your live trading seminars many years ago when I knew absolutely nothing
Brilliant..tell me more, tell me more. I remember hating maths at school but once I'd left spending hours in the library learning about permutations & combinations etc. Still learning today, I'm 53 now. Thank you Peter.
I've got a great story on combinations and permutations from the 90's.
I love these more advanced videos for BetFair trading, there isn't really any other material like this on the internet. Would love to listen to you go deeper with this topic as well as others in the future. May get a bit niche but the development from basic concepts to intermediate to advanced really helps me envision the process better.
As an older "Yank" living in the States during the course of the pandemic I now spend an inordinate amount of time watching tv which has pleasantly led me to watching/loving Premier League football. With my existing fondness of betting, and after watching numerous videos by you I am seeing an uptick in my winning bets on football matches. I'm a huge fan of your content and look forward to seeing future content from you!
Many thanks. it's good to see interest from somebody on the other side of the pond.
Dont stop on video 2, let's go all the way please!!!
Really liked this. I also disliked Math's at School but became interested with because of ZX80 and wanting to make it do stuff. Visual basic was where my programming kind of stopped and career changed. Thank you for sharing that Peter you give me hope :-)
Hey Peter, very nice of you to share it with us. Looking forward to the next ones.
Thanks, I'll return to some more as we head into the new football season.
Interesting how you used the term ‘stumbled upon it’ towards the end. Given what you explain at the start and your approach I would say there was no stumbling and instead, a lot of hard work directed at finding it 😀
You’re a genius! And yes I know that feeling when you look at something that has always been there but you start seeing it in a different light. It’s an amazing feeling. That formula definitely looks so beautiful 😍.
I agree, I enjoy moments when everything comes together to and it all seems to make sense.
@@betangeltv i have been betting for sometime now and i have not made any profits. Thing is, i am new to this and i usually do not know what to make of an analysis. i checked your blog out and only just now did i find out about bet trading. i am usually just betting on odds that the bookies in my country offer me and it hasnt helped me at all. i have started taking your crash course and i'm hooked. Please can you help out in any way to beat the bookies. thank you !
this has changed everthing for me, a bit of maths before every game,calculations =profits
Glad to see it has had a positive impact.
When I had a ZX81 all I did was play 3D Monster Maze!! Love the Berkshire Hathaway Monopoly by the way. Thanks for a great video from 2 years ago. :)
Thank you Coronavirus for putting the world of sport on pause so Peter can spend time making beautiful videos like these! More please!
Glad you like them!
Hes not going to sleep with you Graham so unfortunately you will remain a virgin
@@betangeltv quality and p
Yes! That's exactly it. Maths is just as beautiful and creative as art, literature or languages.
It really is!
Excellent tool to use as a startpoint, please expand to the next level!
Will do!
Nice video Peter. The real secret would be to properly calculate the expected goals based on power ratings, situational factors, HFA, etc and then apply poisson to check for EV + opportunities :) stay safe!
Poisson doesn't really work, but that's another video completely.
Yup I know. It would be too easy to find the holy grail with a simple formula. But still it is fun (for stats freaks) to crunch the data, adjust it, model it, test it, backtest it and still hope to get some money out of the process! Keep on with these videos. Unfortunately I cannot use betfair to take advantage of all the great content you produce, but many others can (and should).
I agree, if you have the passion to get that involved, then you will do well. Most people never even try, so you are one up on them immediately.
@@betangeltv Oh Dear!! I've been using Poisson for my goals predictions for 22+ leagues for a while now. Is there anything on Soccer Mystic relating to this (expected/predicted odds section). I've been trying to reconcile my own data with BA-SM data
@@betangeltv why doesn't poisson work? When i input 2.50 goals into a poisson calculator it comes up with the correct answer 8.21% chance of 0-0.
Interesting stuff! You can separate the average match goals to the home and away teams average goals scored to see the chance of either team scoring when applying this equation.
Looking forward for another continuation video, really liked the explanation and application of the formula. Thanks.
Fantastic video! Please keep them coming in this series, would love to hear more
More to come!
Brilliant again Peter - Thanks so much for all your tutelage - I'll need to watch it a few times to grasp the possibilities. 'Really found your previous vid on the subject of goal rating strategy very useful, so i hope you produce the 3rd vid in the series and outline the complete procedure of converting the odds, probabilities and percentages - that would be greatly appreciated..
I love this series. muliple courses in to one . Removing the dust of my math memory and learning exel . wonderfull.
Many thanks for your comments. I'm glad the video was helpful.
I really enjoyed this video and I'll look forward to the next one on this topic. Makes me want to do an A-level in Maths again because I've forgotten so much of it and now I'd like to learn more about how I can apply it to my Betangel activities.
There is lots of good content out there now. You can almost become an expert in anything in super quick time. Having a look at maths can obviously help define a strategy.
Wish I saw the previous video before Liverpool v Chelsea 🤦🏽♂️🤣. I was on a roll.
Fascinating video, but please note that if you are using an Open Office spreadsheet you have to put a semi-colon in the equation rather than a comma
Great video, keep them coming. Peter, do you remember a spreadsheet you made, must have been late nineties/early 00's that I stumbled across it online. I think it was possibly about more sports than just football but a lot of it was about football and correct scores. As soon as you said 2.71828 it rang a bell. I remember that equation in it and it got me started down a rabbit hole of football correct scores that I'm still presently in.
Well remembered! it was on one of my first ever web sites, so that would have been back in 1996 or later.
@@betangeltv hi my friends tottenham and everton who win and draws? Tottenham 1- 2.10 draw300 everton 2.80
Thank you! Now we can interpret 0-0 odds.
Great informative video, thank you. Can't wait for the next one. When you do these videos your are at your best. Not sure about the sound FX.
Please make a part 3 of this series with taking in consideration the home/ away, injuries, weather and other factors that might influence a game.. Cheers
Why do i suddenly have the urge to play Monopoly?
That is still brand new and wrapped, all the way from Omaha! Probably worth a few quid now.
Exactly what I was thinking
It's the same as using the Poisson function because e is part of the Poisson formula, the results are exactly the same. You would have to concentrate on longshot scores to find odds that are off by enough to make it profitable, so 0-0 is a good one actually. If you check the Poisson odds for midrange scores like 2-1 you find that the difference in odds between each team averaging 1 goal per game and two goals per game is minimal, 14.78 when it's 1 and 13.65 when it's 2. Overround would probably be more than any odds inaccuracy there. With a 0-0 score the odds are 7.39 and 54.60, so there's more room for the book odds to be off. Can you call the odds more accurately though, by instinct or whatever? That's the question. Maybe if there's a strong crosswind during a game and nobody can kick straight.
I started with Poisson roughly 40 years ago, so have spent the time since then refining my modelling skills.
Brilliant video Peter! Would love to see another👍
More to come!
Increible ! Excelente información
Very interesting.
Do your calculations take into consideration team selection, injuries, suspensions, etc?
I imagine a team average can be worked out in micro detail.
yes, injury is 0.5 ankle twist 0.7 shoulder surgery 2.0
@@robsting5414 LMAO i loved this!!!
Great video . So how would you get the percentage chance of exactly 1 goal been scored??
I'll cover in future videos.
Find this really interesting but struggle to accept that something as unpredictable as a football match with numerous variables to consider can be essentially explained by means of one or more mathematical equations. Football isn't a science so surely it can't be? This is not meant as any slight on your knowledge, by the way, Peter.
Thanks for the video. I bet your were a dab hand at machine code on the ZX81 as well. My first computer was a 16K ZX Spectrum! £125 i think it was!
Great advice and betting tips for beginners in this video.
Glad it was helpful!
Okay so there is a match today, Koln vs Dusseldorf. Tell me if I'm doing this right. Koln have played 13 home games, they've scored 22 goals and conceded 18. Dusseldorf have played 13 away games, they scored 14 and conceded 27. So do I add all of those goals together and then divide by the 26 games? 22+18+14+27 = 81 then divide that by 26 = 3.11? Then after running it through the equation it works out at odds of 22.42 of 0-0? Is that right.
Pretty much the figure i arrived at (22.1 dec odds).
I'm really interested into this series
Please continue with it
Peter this is the key that I have been searching for ,saw it three weeks ago but am only now realising the absolute significance of this formula.
Can you expand from predicting the draw to the Home and Away probabilities .Prior to subjective nuances either way.
Need to get an EXCEL for dummies . Can you recommend a book source or download ?
More videos on Eulers Identity please.
Thankyou for sharing .
I'll keep adding videos to progress the series, so you should be able to build a nice set of skills after the series is finished.
I guess it depends what you want to learn in Excel as the sky is the limit, but the 'Dummies' series is a pretty good introduction and you also have lots of good content online now on places like TH-cam and the Khan Academy.
Thanks for the lovely video . =Power( 2.71828, -2.5) . Does 2.5 have to be negative?
Yes, correct
Anothre great video! Since my math knolage is not that good can you tell me if i understand the consept of the formula. If the precentage in your example of 2.5 (the 2.5 been the xG in a game) and the result is abit over 8% of no goals ocuring,does this mean there are 92% chanse of 2.5 goals ocuring in that game or the 92% is for that game having a goal. And also with time passing in a football match were still no goal is scored increse the chanse of a goal coming or it decreases?
92% chance of a goal
Thanks for this video. A very elegant story teller!
There is actually an online calculator which comes up when you google your equation. Fascinating stuff and something which allows you to set strategies around expected goals and match result outcomes.I like to dutch correct scores around expected goals so this would be useful.
Could you share the link?
what did you google exactly?
Great video thanks, so now I get why you called yourself Euler on on the forum! More of this type of content please.
You got it!
hi peter they say if you want to know about a man look at his library! What is the way of the turtle and how has it helped you?
love the depths you've gone through to seek knowledge.
I was just interested in it as it was a popularised story. The only thing I, sort of, learnt from it was that breakouts tend to occur when price volatility is low.
You're producing some really informative videos at the moment, I'm enjoying them.
I have a question that's not related to this, and to be honest not related to betting, (betting on football is not my thing) but I am curious how you will change your models for future football betting for games being played without spectators.
I wonder what impact that will have for 'home' advantage. You obviously know there is a number which is supposed to denote the value of home advantage, but I'm curious if there is any data which attempts to put a number on home advantage when games are played with no spectators.
Thanks for the excellent presentation as always. You have shown the formula for 0 goals as =POWER(2.71828,-2.5) Do you have a formula for this team 1 goal, this team 2 goals etc is that possible?
Yes I have and will cover it in another video.
My head hurts, I'm having a lay down hahahaha
Another great video thanks. It ties in well with my Poisson model. at 0-0 which i hope is a good thing.
I'll cover possion distribution in the future video if you like.
@@betangeltv Please do. I really enjoy watching your videos, educating and informative, from such a humble man. The world need more of this i think. Keep up the good work.
More goals high odds is a no no for some sites..it has been 5050 chance
Great video, but slightly confused in getting my head around it. So basically this example is only used to work out the chance of there being 0 goals in a match, rather than to try and work out the chance of different amounts of goals and apply it to different over/under or correct score markets?
It works out the chance of no goals then works out how many goals there are going to be.
The only way you could code a ZX81 was with machine code or hex Peter. I did this with my Spectrum 48K... & spend absolutely hours looking for that one line with an incorrect alpha numeric entry!. These things worked much faster with raw machine code, as they didn't have to convert the basic back to machine code. Ah... those were the days... did you have the additional RAM pack for your ZX81 I wondered?! :) .
This is informative... Please can you make a video using a real live example on how you actually arrive at s given average.
Like from getting your odd to getting your probability all in real practical form.
There will be more in this series for sure.
@@betangeltv thanks I'll be waiting
Hi Peter, Really like this idea, so thanks for the heads up. Yes, obviously I would be interested in learning the calculation method. Colin Smalley
Noted!
When I get average goal 3.5 does it mean 3 goals or 4.. and also 1.72 does it mean 1 goal or 2
You are just looking at the average, so that you can perform a calculation on that average. You shouldn't be rounding it up or down. It will just give you a percentage chance.
You never disappoint Peter, the beauty of Probability and how it enhanced your life, a ZX81 and the answers to all my questions, you make teaching and trading come alive. If you have the time I would appreciate another video.
All the best and stay safe.
can you put this Eulers identity set of videos together to review and repeat.
You mean in one big video?
The formula in excel is even more simple than you state. Instead of POWER(2.71828,-2.5) you can simply use EXP(-2.5).
(I may not be the first to point this out, but a did scan a decent ways down the comments and didn't see anything so I posted this)
Y, I have seen this comment elsewhere and use this in other videos. It's just a case of explaining it fully.
Amazing as ever! Thanks a lot!
Glad you liked it!
Hi There. I was wondering what others views are about the reliability of stats, especially form , in football as some leagues try to resume playing after lockdown. Can we take past stats into account or do people think that too much pause time has passed for form to be unreliable?
It's unlikely to restart exactly where they left off, so I'm going to bet against it.
You have mentioned in previous videos your dislike of maths at school, so,presumably you never had a thorough grounding in algebra and calculus etc that A level maths would have given you.
How did you manage to understand the maths pioneered by the mathematicians featured?
It would have taken a,lot more than enthusiasm for subject, intrigued.
Bet on value. Teams with a 70% chance of winnng. First goal scorer advantage. Wait for opposing team to level score. Then find out when favourite most likely to score next to place bet. Statera stats. Stats24 value hunter
Don't back away teams who have a red card
Cheers Peter great video, No.3 please Sir!
Thank you Peter for this amazing series ... Please don t here , let s go all the way...
Thanks for your feedback.
How do you work out average number of goals if there is no previous form say for example the Europa league?
You would have to go on similar matches that have occured in the past. Adjusted for any current differential that you see. So for example, top UK team traditional has achieved this against this type of team.
Thanks sir for the video please make another video on this topic
Sure I will
Remember buying a zx81. Thought I was the dogs bollocxs 😂
This is great Peter! I don't understand any of it but it was great! The elephant in the room that I've never heard explained really comprehensively is how high street bookmakers produce their odds for football. I know the overround is ridiculous but do they have about a 100 Peter Webb's crunching polynomial equations behind the scenes.. or is it a culmination of things like a witches potion that no one with ever know about! I would love it if you could enlighten us in a video of how they produce that magic numbers to open up the market, I've always wanted to know.
Brilliant
Please share some videos on NRL betting aswell.
Very good... more in depth would be great cheers
More on the way!
Bonjour comment fait on pour rentrer la formule sur excel ?, merci
forum.betangel.com/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=23700
Am hooked!
So LOG('0-0 price',2.71828) should give you the markets projected goals? Is that right?
Somebody posted the solution on another comment =LOG(1/[under0.5odds])/-LOG(EXP(1)))
@@betangeltv Right thanks, yeah same outcome both. Cool
hi peter please show how to do the 2.71828 calculation on a calculator in one of you videos
You just need to raise 2.718 to the negative power of goals. So if you check on your calculator you will see the power button. You just need to tap 2.718 and then the power button and a negative value representing the number of goals.
my last weekend was great, +2o matches was correct. and 23 May 13 matches.
Is their any other way I can be helped
Searching for your third video in the series......Help
Any difference with no home crowds atm?
There is evidence from Bundesliga in the top division that home advantage has been diminished, but not seeing it elsewhere at the moment.
People with math phds struggling to do their kids math homework atm.
Good advice but don't believe in gumbling itried many times only to fail.
Any safe method for cricket betting plz
th-cam.com/video/FdiILzwj1Mo/w-d-xo.html
Nice. Next video please
More vídeos like this bro please. Genius
Many thanks, I'll be sure to produce more.
@@betangeltv Amazing that you are fixing what the UK education system got wrong for so many people . Just like you, all my maths education began AFTER leaving school.
Please I want you to show me a best way to calculate odds
I've published a few videos on this.
Great content.......yes please
What a great video
Glad you enjoyed it
Pouvez mettre les traductions en français.
I have calculated expected goals for a particular match as being 0.918. If I do the calculation e^-0.918 it gives me a 39.9% chance of 0-0 which would be odds of 2.5. Seems very low odds for a 0-0 market. Am I calculating something incorrectly?
0.918 is too low. The range is usually between 2-3 unless there is a big mis-match and then you start straying into 3-3.5 goals. Use some historical data to get some context on a likely range.
I'm interested in game
Brilliant!
Good video
Glad you enjoyed
there it goes again wolfsburg 2-0 over 1-5 goals
Pleased that it's working for you.
Wonderful
Thank you! Cheers!
Bro show with images we can't understand wat u trying to say
I don't other videos in this series which you should watch also.
I with you on the wonder of maths
Thank you
You're welcome
They didn't have Modelling for Dummies? Bet they do now
Maybe I should rename the video!
Another one please!
I've puiblished a few now, will rearrange into a playlist.
NiCe Video sir I need your Help I talk to you