It’s great f you can redo a market to 100%. I have my own Excel sheet that does this. However it doesn’t matter by how much you beat the odds if your selection doesn’t win !
One of the best video’s I’ve seen, especially about the odds/ chance percentage thing which I go wrong at times I feel like. Thanks for this knowledge, helps a lot
17 years of professional sports betting and I only chased ONE TIME !! I tell everyone that if you didn’t place the bet at the beginning of the day why you place it at the end of the day. Weakness cost people money so does EGO’s
@@bigpossum5482 Amen 🙏 And don’t place bets just because there’s a game (action junkie) value or advantage or pass. Sometimes the best bet is not making one 💪🏼
@@bigpossum5482 I hear you. I overcame CHASING by deciding to only check my ticket the following day when all games have been played. Otherwise I was losing money by trying to chase because I was watching the games I bet on... Now I only check my ticket only after knowing all games have been played
Very good video, I've read most of the comments below, it seems people are not willing to put the effort in and wish to be spoon fed winning tips. Understanding value is so important if you are to turn the corner from being a mug to a profitable gambler. Watch the video again and take notes if you didn't understand it.
Thanks for the kind words! - I think you have summed it up in a nutshell, most people are too lazy to make betting viable. Even when they buy-in services (value betting / tips / data ), they fail to take advantage. For example, imagine paying for value betting software - It's like a buffet, if you are not hungry and ready to eat, there is no value! Same with betting accounts, betting with just one is like shopping for groceries in a solitary village shop. Every point counts!!
I've started very little (I literally only placed bets to make cents at the beginning lol), but over time I've accumulated a nice portion. I can now bet a bit more money, and win a more... It's very easy to get impulsive and impatient, but growing your initial betting amount is the objective - not 'striking gold' by making uninformed choices. Don't bet on a team that you love just because you have a 'feeling' (it can work out, but it's stupid). You'll lose your money in a second if you bet based on feelings.
Playing baseball always check the pitchers and with Colorado Rockies at home the bet is always the over. The ball flies in Colorado. Great money maker.
Thank you very much for this..really. a lot of people tell you to seek value, but nobody ever said how to find that value and the steps needed to see what is the base price. Looking forward to keep watching to your videos
Thank you, it also works a treat in a 8 dog race. But we all must remember that odds = probability % and that is down to the Bookies personal opinion. Most corp bookies in Australia aim for 120% to 140% Book. Thanks for the channel i am enjoying it.
Yes - in the UK its usually around 2% per runner for horses, and with dog racing (BAGS) they bet 120-130% (3.5 to 5% per runner). I prefer French racing(PMU 15% win pool = more runners the better) where I usually get a turnover rebate (high volume) of around 4% (deal with a POS). UK bookies offer fixed odds on the same (have to use high turnover shops to stay below the radar) and they are brainless, and on ocassions Betfair have a bit of liquidity on the same. I also have ''a bit'' of access to German/Italian bookies - but the stakes will be hundreds (won't get 4 figures). At the end of the day, the margin is less interesting than the market accuracy = opportunity knocks. PS - also works for US racing & at least in Aus you have the minimum bet rule!
In Aus you at least have the minimum bet rule - UK bookies are the biggest pussy's in the world. UK races are usually being offered at an over-round of about 2% per runner. Which compares to dog races of 4-5% per runner. Still - the overall margin is less interesting than the accuracy - and some people are making a living out of the dogs! I actually prefer French racing because my options are: 15% PMU - but with 4% turnover rebate (split commission with a POS for high volume) - For the most part, betting against the average Joe! UK bookies offer fixed odds on the same - They are useless & can be easily taken apart - but need to bet in high-volume shops to stay below the radar. Exchanges - Volume isn't much, but plenty of value if you have time on your hands. The Arc weekend will have big volume! Italy/German - Fixed odds (vary massively to those in the UK) - Realistically (if you know how), they will lay you to a payout of around 2500 to 5K - more at the big meetings! PS: If I was down under I would be attacking Sportsbet (player markets) & Bet365 (biggest bookie/ biggest dope) Good luck with your betting!
Very accurate and true video unfortunately you failed to mention with online accounts you will either be banned or severely restricted if you continue to keep betting at positive EV,the only way around this is to bet in the shops or with the exchanges. Bookmaker's hate winners and punters who consistently take the value....
Thanks for your comments on this and the other video. At 13:16 I mention treading carefully with betting accounts because of the aforementioned. 14:05 Use third-party accounts. 14:30 Get others to open accounts on your behalf. Also, I mentioned that to stay in the game for a long time it is important to develop yourself and learn other ways to win! By using this method (or value-betting) even a person with limited betting knowledge should be able to take an easy 5K from their own accounts. Profitable gamblers who play Leisure bookmakers full time learn to ''buy-in'' accounts (around $20K in bonus from US bookies alone & Italy around 5-6K if done right), and by creating a network the world is your oyster. Accounts will get more longevity by making ''in-play'' bets. Finally - this is money that the average person can take, and it's money they didn't have before. The object of any business is to make money, and the longevity is then down to the individual involved.
@@BettingAnalyst fair point ,you did drop hints it was a good video and your content was truthful I just felt that my point was valid for any considering paying for third party software, to know ...
@@tonymathews4049 - In my opinion, the software is a low cost if you can get the betting accounts. Alternatively, track the betting exchanges (when they have liquidity). Watch the Asian platforms. Do the bonus abuse. Go each way thieving. Learn foreign racing (UK bookies are useless) - I covered some points in this video - th-cam.com/video/VzGu4DyL9So/w-d-xo.html -- The only important part is taking the bookie's money, and reverse-engineering the process.
@@BettingAnalyst Good reply it will certainly suit certain players EV is the only way to make money long term,not getting caught by the ever increasing sophistication of the bookies algorithms is the real secret.....
Hi sir, thank you for all. I have question : Should we wait for the pinnacle closing line where the moment of calculation and removal of the juice is not important and the main thing is to beat the coast without pinnacle juice at a time T. ? thank you for your response.
Thanks! The removal of the house edge is always going to be part of the deal, even if you are betting at the start (closing line) of a game. Here is a link to a betting tool for removing betting juice and giving true odds (use the MPTO line): winnerodds.com/valuebettingblog/true-odds-calculator/
i hear you but my question is do you use pre odds or do you use live odds to do calculations? second question what happens if home & draw have positive value?
When you say live odds - i think you mean ''updated'' & not in-play! If that is the case - latest odds! If its in-play you are referring to - you need to find higher odds than those offered by Pinnacle (minus juice). It doesn't matter were the odds are advantageous, whether that be goal market, home, draw, away, Asian handicap - Its about taking the advantage!
All this is like double dutch to me . I need to see people betting on soccer as it happens and giving me ideas on what to do and when to do it , this is the key
A sense of reality is needed! - Complex betting as you mention (in-play football) can't be covered in a 20-minute video. This is the reason the video is called ''simple strategy'' - With all due respect, there is no blueprint for doing what you ask. It requires deep knowledge and loads of data crunching. furthermore, if you are calling this video '' double dutch'' - You have zero chance of devising modules, reading markets, and applying psychology. Where is the point of me adding a video for an advanced audience when most are looking for simple ways to win?
@@BettingAnalyst apologirs for my ignorance, I just have no idea what all these numbers are for , I'd need to sit down with you and go over in detail what exactly you're trying to get across and how to relate it in let's say betting before a soccer match for instance. Looking at this video I feel I had to have done a masters in advanced mathematics 😁 I'm probably complicating the whole thing but I do find it interesting if only I understood. I've never come across anyone who can beat the bookies
@@handeyecoordinationskills I don't know enough about the country (laws) that you live in. However, if you can get the same betting accounts, and do things right winning is a formality --------- This video i did BIG PROFIT BETTING STRATEGY MADE SIMPLE (USING REBELBETTING) is a talk-through with examples and methods. th-cam.com/video/cZVlS6rTy-E/w-d-xo.html&t The link to the software that we cover in that video allows two weeks of FREE USE - you can test it against the bookies that you can get, while at the same time learn about Value betting.
Can I get in touch with you? I am really not clear. I understood what the Juice is but I am not understanding how to beat the odds or what is the best option to choose(understanding the juice) for frequent wins slowly. I am not greedy but I lose alot! I need better strategies
I am not sure if you look back at old videos but i do have a question. When you say "the odds" is that just the line? I am in America and so tonight is Thursday night football. New England +240 and Pittsburgh -300. So when i calculate the percent do i take the 100 and divide by 2.4 (+240for New England) and by 3 (-300 for Pittsburgh)? or how do i use American odds?
Martin odds/Line With the 240 you add the stake 100 =340 (3.4) -300 = 1.33333 (1/1.3333 = 75%) +240 = 3.40 (1/3.4 =29.4%) In this instance, the over-round is 104.4% If laying to balance amounts, the sportsbook returns 95.79 (100/104.4) for every 100 wagered. That's just one sportsbook - If you go line shopping (more accounts) you can squeeze that number down. Best
Invest time in learning about the different types of odds - Decimal is so much more practical. Most betting sites have a setting, and once you understand them it's easy.
I've just got some figures for you and the audience: player 1 6.27 player 2 1.13 and another is player 1. 1.77 and player 2 2.09 (decimal system) Would you be kind enough to explain this... thanks for all your great sharing!!
If you can bet player one to beat player 2 at odds of 6.27 and player one at 1.77 you are guaranteed to make a profit. However, with such a vast difference, you have to worry about the bookmaker not paying (claiming palpable error)=
@@BettingAnalyst The american system is showing this results player 1 +527(6.27) player 2 -143 (1.13) and in the other game player 1 -129(1.77) and player 2 +109 (2.09). If I follow the american system i'm guarantee to win on the minus side -143 and -129.? But you are telling me to be player one (game1 1) and also player 1 in game 2.?
Καλησπερα και μπραβο για τα ωραια σας βιντεο!!!Υπαρχει δυνατοτητα να βλεπω τις αποδοσεις τηε pinnacle...ειμαι απο Ελλαδα..και δεν μπορω να εχω προσβαση....εκτος απο σελιδες που δειχνουνε καποιες αποδοσεις συγκριτικα...ευχαριστω εκ των προτερων!
Thanks - You have a few alternatives. 1. Use a VPN. 2. Use a odds comparison site such has Bet monitor. 3. Sign up to an asian betting broker and access it through there platform.
Hi there thank you for sharing this knowledge I think this is wonderfull. We should use Pinnacle opening or closing odds or it doesn't matter?? Is Pinnacle oppening odds accurate as well??
Pinnacle odds is a strong guide! If you think about it, when you are placing a bet early - you are literally futures trading. Odds fluctuate, and it isn't where the market will end (odds change). Beating the Pinnacle/Betfair starting odds is the target of professional sports bettors, but in the instance of 'no opinion'' value bettors, the value is at the time of placing a bet (ie - don't overthink it).
@@BettingAnalyst Thank you very much for replyng. Right now I have few positive EV strategies the problem is although tey are value bets I have low volume of bets per month and my bank is growing very slow with this that you show us I can have finnaly volume of bets that will hopefullt«y grow my bank faster. thank you once again.
Is there any site to check the pinnacle’s odds? Like the one you posted at your example at 7.20 of this video.. I can’t register to pinnacle from my country that’s why I need it
With regards to this video, it's more about the best of 2 or 3 as in a football match! I need to answer your question twice, in that there is a Dutch & split bet. For the sake of simplicity, lets us take a football match where the odds the Pinn (asian odds) were 2.00 (-0.5 Home win) - 1.92 (+0.5 Away win + draw). The converted 100% odds are 2.043 - 1.96 and you can get 1.98 (+2 pips). Alternatively, you can look for the best draw odds, and best away odds. Keeping it simple: If you found 3.333 (draw) and 5.00 (away) you can increase by placing 60 on the draw and 40 away) the +0.5 to odds of 2.00 (+4 pips). This can also be done for quarter ball, and other asian handicap odds if they are something you understand! As for a dutch bet - I do this with racing, albeit I tend to have more on my main bet and cover with the 2nd. Nevertheless, the answer is YES - You can Dutch/Split for positive EV
Hi, I am a novice. I did not understand the part about pinnacle are you saying their odds are right over 95% of the time? I.e. they odds rightly reflect who the winner and loser of the match will be? Thank you for producing these videos
This is from our tutorial - How to use Pinnacle odds to guide In our experience, Pinnacle odds are about the most accurate on the market. While nothing is 100%, our data research gives Pinnacle a 99.4% accuracy rating. Furthermore, if you find another bookmaker site that is better at a league/sport, the same method applies. www.betting-analyst.com/sports-betting-win-using-this-simple-strategy/ - That is the text format that might be easier to understand! Value betting is a great way for a novice to get on the right track - Learn a bit more, and then give it a go and you will see for yourselves!
Hey I still don't get it. For example I have done the calculation like the second example of three way bet... And I have removed the juice how do I know the team that will win? Please help if you understand
There's no correct winning odds due to life's variance and other stuffs. The truth to winning consistently is to model or create concepts that can help u to win. I said so because anything created by man which involves money requires manipulation. That being said, you have to be good at analysing the data of a football match plus good sense of discernment because sports gambling is about the odds on offer by the bookies. If you don't know how to interpret the odds in addition to all the great information in this video and understanding line shopping, you will be losing consistently. @BettingAnalyst opened my eyes to something spectacular in one of his recent videos and I sacrificed my time to do my own calculations. I was spot on with Chesterfield Vs Notty game two days ago with exact 2-2 correct score and Hauchipato Vs Colo-colo yesterday with exact 1-2 correct score. Cc: @BettingAnalyst 🎉
Pls sir I love and appreciate ur teachings and videos, pls sir can you explain to me how to find the juice, and also are we betting on the juice or odds. Thank you Sir and God Blesses your wisdom and Knowledge. Love you
Hi Prince Godwin! The video explains how to convert the odds into a 100% book, and then your job is to find higher odds! You can also use a software such has Rebelbetting to identify EV (expected value) for the bookmakers you have at hand. I did a separate video th-cam.com/video/cZVlS6rTy-E/w-d-xo.html&t . There is alternative software that you can google for the same. The only secret is betting at higher odds than ''true odds'' - Its a numbers game!
All well and good but bookmakers don't like winners. They will first entice prospective clients with "bonuses" and then make them jump through hoops to be "account verified". Win a few quid and you will likely be severely limited to very small bets if you are lucky or "gubbed" (accounts closed) if not. Better off trading on the Exchanges.
By all means, have your say, but betting exchanges are useless for Sports-betting. If you get an average of 500 out of each online bookmaker account and you have 20 - it's still 10k per person. Of course, if you get good at betting (which using exchanges suggest you are) and find a way to profit through knowledge, then all your bets are funnelled through Asia!! No commission, high limits, through agents can change accounts each week, winners welcome, and no bookmaker (KYC). While i certainly don't need to justify myself, you have to learn how to crawl, before you can walk, and then start running! - the secret is to make the journey profitable!
I've watched most of your videos up to now. All very enjoyable. In earlier videos you advise real price (100% book) is between back/lay on betfair. Which is more accurate in your opinion?
Thanks for watching! To best answer your question. You can use both, its just that Pinnacle will give you more options. You may have noticed that over the years Betfair liquidity dropped, and markets are getting established later. In short, Betfair works fine with big leagues , whereas Pinnacle works with all leagues/sports. Also, the Betfair market makers / traders are using Pinnacle/ Asia for guidance and hedging
It's the maths - the over-round is 103.57 and that = 96.55% payout --- meaning the juice is 100-96.55! -------- its like if you had 6 runners in a race and they were all offered at odds of 5.0 (20%) --- 6*20 = 120 whereas the payout is 83.3%
Lee - There are more ways to skin a cat! If our business module was built on value-betting, i would be loitering around Pinnacle for opening lines. Those early odds bookmakers make mistakes, so there is an advantage to be had. However, with a word of warning, your tactics would be easier to detect, and that could lead to limits being applied sooner rather than later. Also, my advice is stay away from crap (3rd league handball), and concentrate on higher liquidity leagues/sports/matches. Finally, in-play bets are the hardest to detect, and there is a tonne of value. My advice - reverse engineer your own situation - experience, funds, bookies available, past record (a poor one can help - accounts will have more leverage), and so on. Your target should be earn while you learn!
Tony I have a question... After removing juice Between ( 2. 49( 3.98) 2.92) should I be following the smaller number on the left or the bigger number on the right? Who's gonna be the winner?
The aim is to find bigger odds than the ''no juice market'' ------- If you see odds (keeping it simple) 2.85 2.85 2.85 ----- (the no juice is 3.0 3.0 3.0) Now you go line shipping (more betting accounts = more options) and the best odds you can find are 2.90 2.90 3.20 ------- your bet is the away because you have higher than true odds!
Thanks Tony for your guidance. Sometimes both home and away have same odds it's really hard to get the truth... Another one of my challenges. I consume alot of time comparing with different books I guess hard work here is needed no lazying... 🤣🤣
I became a pro sports bettor by studying mma non stop for about 6 years until I could predict well over 70% of fights but...this definitely seems easier 😂 sadly I suck at math but y'all should do it this way
Being a profitable ''opinionated'' gambler has its advantages. However, as you say, this is easier. In the States, i would recommend you get stuck into the enticement bonuses being offered by bookies. As they all fight for market share, it's a great opportunity for advantage takers. With regards to maths, you don't need to be an expert. Check out this video, it's about how software will lead you to EV bets (expected value). It's particularly interesting for US sports! While i covered Rebelbetting in this video, you have loads of options. BIG PROFIT BETTING STRATEGY MADE SIMPLE (USING REBELBETTING) - th-cam.com/video/cZVlS6rTy-E/w-d-xo.html&t
You got it! The bigger the difference, the higher the betting value! You can use a tool like: winnerodds.com/valuebettingblog/true-odds-calculator/ . Use the MPTO (margin proportional to odds calculation!! It can be used for any sport, and best of 2 or 3 betting. PS: Give yourself a chance by having a number of accounts/betting outlets - Good luck
After knowing true odds then how do I predict the winning team? What is the importance of knowing the true odds exactly (I’m new in betting I’m just trying to understand)
If you are new to betting - the easiest way forward is to sign up to value betting software and allow it to find your positive EV (expected value) bets. Much is explained in our other videos on the site
That's actually a good question, but the answer will depend on the person and his/her understanding of the betting market. In football, when team news comes out markets can be volatile, and betting near the start reflects the CLV (closing line value). With tennis, watch for when Pinnacle release their opening lines, the softbooks are in many cases easy to expose!
thanks for the video. I now understand how to get the 100% bookmakers odds without the juice. my question is what do you do after getting the true odds to make consistent profit?
If you can be more specific? You find the odds, bet the odds, log (record) the results, while continually looking for the next bets. Do it often enough, and you will make a tidy profit which in theory will help you build a bigger betting bank. Practice makes perfect!
One strategy is don't place the same amount on every bet. Good money mgmt you build in the fact you will lose some bets, but if you can consistently win over 60% you can do something like 10,12.5,15 and toggle between those 3 bets. so you have a low bet and a top bet
Hi Fergal, it will be dependent on what you are willing to pay for such services. Are you feeding it into Algorithmic Sports-modelling ?. At the lower end of the budget something like advancedsportsanalytics, while more established is the likes of sportsdata.io/. One of our guys here said Rotogrinders have options. For US sport, i believe the choice is massive!
@@BettingAnalyst awesome. Thanks for the reply mate. I found action labs and sports analytics simulator. But yeah quite expensive. Maybe something to think about in future. Thanks.
@@fergaldownes - Your welcome! One thing is certain, US sports can be an easy touch with value betting. If i was in your shoes, i would remove the brain part and concentrate on picking the bastards off! Increase number of bets, pay particular attention to player markets. Look for betting outlets in the Southern hemisphere (sportsbet/topsport/pointsbet), and it will soon grow.
Nothing changes - same procedure. Many bookies carry the same odds because they are buying them in from a third party service. Also, some bookmakers are part of the same group, thus the same applies!
Hey I still don't get it. For example I have done the calculation like the second example of three way bet... And I have removed the juice how do I know the team that will win? Please help if you understand
@@cailosh.3993 Simply, you dont. You count on fact that bookmakers made the odds correctly. So, after you remove juice, you get the probabilities to win for each team and you seek odds provided by your bookmaker that are higher than your counted value. For example, if the probability of winning of team 1 is 50% with odds 2.1 and team 1 actually won in 50 of 100 times (just example), you won 5 units (1,1*50-50).
By using this method please explain by what time odds are being accurate ? Because odds change anytime, and sometime u can find different value ..so this situation of odds to change doesn't affect this method?
You are beating the market price at the time. If you are tracking the right source your margin will hold-up! While there are other methods for reading markets, it's technology-based and for those organizations with deep pockets!
How do you know the 2.07 ( inverted to 2.15) is the real odd? It could have been the 2.21 inverted to 2.23 if you choose BetinAsia. How do you know which odds are the real world fair odds? Why did you choose Pinnacle as your starting point?
danke,sehr gute arbeit,habe viel gelernt.wie ist das inplay? wenn ich die pinnaccle quote schlage nach demselben prinzip,müsste auch positiv enden oder? besten danke,machen sie weiter so
Danke! Ja Pinnacle ist besser aber man muss zwei Sachen beachten; mache die Quoten zurück auf 100% (z.B. 1,95 und 1,95 ist 2,0 und 2,0) und Pinnacle Quoten bei Live-Wetten ist eine Meinungssache an Stelle von dynamischen Quoten (bei Pre Match Wetten). Für die richtigen Quoten muss man unbedingt in Pinnacle eingeloggt sein! Viel Erfolg!
@@BettingAnalyst ah,ok danke sehr,habe bisher nur über oddsportal die inplayquoten abgeglichen,mit par softbookies,,hat easy ausgeschaut,over pinnaccle 1.4,betwinner 1.5,theotetisch ca 15% value,aber eben war nicht eingeloggt,danke für den tip und die schnelle antwort
If i use only pinnacle as guide and if I see value bet on betfair exchange and only if I place bets on betfair exchanges or other exchanges will I in long term be in profit? I know that betfair exchange are also sharp or are they? Thank for your help
Once the market becomes active (liquidity), most of the Betfair/exchange deep odds (volume) are derived from Asian bookies! However, you will get the trumpers (individuals offering a pip or two more), market manipulators (need movement), and traders hedging back. In short, Asians use dynamic odds which move according to supply/demand. Exchanges follow, and it's more of a case of timing/negotiating your bet! Pinnacle & Betfair are both great guides, but that doesn't mean they can't be beaten. Nevertheless, the margins are fine, and you will need loads of volume to make it worthwhile! Soft books are an easier touch!
@@BettingAnalyst Hi there. I have been using this strategy for a while but my ROI are negative 2 percent. I have been using pinnacle as a guide and also cloudbet. The markets on wich I have been placing bets are corner handicap, booking over under, asian handicap for sports tennis,soccer and basketball. I cant realize what I have doing wrong? I just wonder wich market are the best to bet on. Is it 1X2 for soccer? Is that matters? Thanks in advance
@@igorkulaga3535 - If you have enough bets in the system, and have successfully removed the Pinnacle Juice (thus betting at positive EV) you shouldn't be losing. Betfair market makers track the Asians (Pinnacle - Sinbet - IBC - ISN etc) and work with tight margins (commission advantage - getting rebates from both sides). With Betfair/Pinn you won't see many differentials unless it's for a few peanuts! Raise your EV expectancy! - As for the question about Betfair, yes it's an accurate guide to market odds if there is liquidity! The lower-grade stuff is useless!
@@BettingAnalyst thanks for reply. What do you think about cloudbet as a guide? If i place a value bet and there is no longer value before the match starts is it better to cashout and loose some or simply do nothing? I have placed about 1500 bets on only few bookies and still not in positive. I also use en.surebet.com as a guide to see valuebets and even compare it with pinnacle and cloudbet (removing the juice) but still not good. And for the end you typed " the lower grade stuff". Did you ment low liquidity? The highest liquidity is on 1x2 market (match odds) for soccer, maybe is it better to focus only on match odds?
I’m new to sports betting. The language/verbage in this video makes it difficult to fully understand the math, I don’t speak sports betting language. Pls send links to other videos to learn the basics and foundation. I want to learn to bet to profit, not bet for fun. Like what does 1.95 mean on understanding odds? When I look at betting odds it’s +110 or -135 etc. Thank you, I will continue to replay and try to better understand in mean time
Ask yourself this - Do you think the US way of betting (-135) is the most logical? For me, the answer is a definite NO & fortunately i've convinced all my US clients to think the same. Decimal is the most logical way of offering/betting odds - all you have to do is change an outdated method in your APPS settings. With decimal, you see your potential win straight away, and when making parlays (you simply * the numbers together and they do the same with the stake!! Here is a link to a simple conversion chart: www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html ALSO - my advice if you haven't made this mistake already! Do not open betting accounts until you understand how to get the most out of them! Otherwise, you will fail to optimise any incentive bonus & you won't maximise out on accounts which eventually get closed/restricted by sportsbooks for winning (advantage taking). Before you even start, you should consider: How much you can put aside for a betting bank. Which in turn will dictate your stake sizing, and your ability to MAX out any bonus, line shopping (more accounts the better), any costs of software (if needed), ROI, risk (safe is matchedbetting/Arbitrage - but returns are substantially lower - Whereas, Value betting increases ROI, but it does come with variance. With regards to my videos - the one you watched would be the most simplified. My target audience is more proven winning gamblers who want to streamline. With that said, i consider at least 20 of my 80+ videos to be ideal for beginners, and you could google/search terms like beginners - its just that the average video doesn't tell you anything worthwhile! Good luck
You simply need to beat those odds - only the odds you receive are of interest! For example: If the Pinnacle 100% book odds are 2.50 3.33 3.33. and you can find the best odds (with bookies you have at hand) of 2.60 3.20 3.20 - take the 2.60 - it's 10 pips higher
If you are getting over true odds, that's the key to beating bookmakers at their own game. You could also make it easy on yourself by signing up for value-betting software. While they work with amalgamated odds, they will be pumping out loads of positive EV (expected value) bets.
@@Sum-10 If this is too difficult for you to understand, make life easier! - Sign up to a value-betting software and let them provide you with Positive EV (expected value) betting propositions!
I believe I mention in the video that it works best for the lower odds - The maths changes a little when the odds get bigger, and that's why you will often see a Pinnacle 10.00 become a 12.5 on the exchanges.
Its not confusing at all - Lines move all day long, and you can't control that! However, by staying ahead of the Pinnacle line you will stay ahead of the bookmaker! As you see on this and many other threads, plenty of people are saying it works for them!
Thanks for your content, you never disappoint. I’d like clarity on somethings if you don’t mind. As a positive EV bettor, how many trades am I expected to take daily, also, using fractional kelly criterion, can I place multiple bets at almost same time? If yes, will I recalculate my position sizing (using kelly criterion) after each bet to place another bet immediately without waiting for the outcome of the first bet. Example: Assuming I’m betting with $1,000, I used $50 for the first bet which hasn’t been settled. I have a balance of $950, will I recalculate my position sizing with $950 without waiting for the bet on $50 to settle. I really need clarity on this and how profitable it might be. Thanks a lot. I really hope you reply
I wouldn't use the Kelly Criterion because not all bets are created equal. By that i mean, more flexibility can be shown, in that you stake according to EV and quality of the Sport. I would trust higher liquidity markets to stand the test of time! Also, if your bets are online, be weary about betting non appropriate sums (EG with cents on the end), it tells the bookies that you are playing a system! I'm assuming that you are in Africa, so in theory you could place (reliable) friends in crowded shops who you feed bets? Two more points - 5% of your betting bank per bet is too much! You could only place 20 bets per day, thus your account options (because lack of funds) would become too small. Around 1% would be better! ps - Here is a video on how you can identify advantage plays th-cam.com/video/cZVlS6rTy-E/w-d-xo.html&t. - I suggest a software on there, but their are other alternatives. I don't think we need to get into making adjustments on staking plans because i'm suggesting that you avoid % plays. Just think, it's a numbers game, thus you need a bigger spread of bets. Finally, you can adjust stakes based on performance every month as your bank grows. Needless to say, a good run can be followed by a bad run, and vice versa!
It is a numbers game, the more high-value bets you can find, the better. Here is the blog tutorial : www.betting-analyst.com/sports-betting-win-using-this-simple-strategy/
@@onebowl5262 Thanks for the notice (we changed the site) - this is the link: betting-analyst.com/tutorials/sports-betting-win-using-this-simple-strategy/
great video, more people need to understand how odds work and what value is, odds is an interesting topic. You never say anything about an exchange though its very hard to find value with a bookiemake and when you do and you keep taking it then you will not be using there services for long as you will get your account stake resticted just seems like allot of work to try and beat the book maker but there is no long term gain from a bookmaker why take 1.85 odds with a book maker when you can go on the exchange and get true odds of 1.98 you loose a very tiny amount to the other side but if you have the edge in what your doing then that tiny amount then tips in your favor and again no need to worry about being gubbed or poor prices and the nice thing with the exchange is unlike a bookie where you can only find value on the back side on the exchange theres plently of value on the lay side. i really hope more people use an exchanges in the future, personally i trade on them but theres nothing wrong with being a punter and just punting as normal like you would with a bookie maker but you will always get a better price as book makers build there pricing based on the exchange prices again there true odds not the chopped up shite the bookie will offer you.
I haven't really delved into opinion betting, and from my own perspective, that's what I do! However. Secondly, as you said, at Exchanges you are playing at market price, and not everyone has access to the low commission, or indeed exchanges. Finally, it is not true that you can't find better odds with bookmakers. Many are slow to change prices, and they cover many more markets (no liquidity on exchanges). What about things like each-way thieving (in shops). Betting French racing (in shops), the UK and Irish bookies are clueless with odds. What should one do, show you cards for a couple of hundred on the Exchange or duck and dive to get a few K down without them noticing? I have a list of over 50 people that I have value betting with bookies, and some of them are making 50-100k per month. I believe I mention in every video - there is no blueprint. you have to find what's best for yourself. For me, that's betting in Asia (or racing bets in shops), but for many its ducking and diving (gnome accounts) and making the leisure bookie pay - it is more profitable than 5 and dimers on the Exchanges (read the stats). I hope that declares my position.
You don't need a Pinnacle account - that is simply your benchmark (odds you need to beat). Pinnacle odds can be found without signing, either on the website or through www.betmonitor.com/odds-comparison/ You could also use Betfair as a Benchmark - when the Exchange is at 100%
The information you provide for beginners is insanely useful 👌 Well done So your saying almost mostvof the times true odds provide by pannicle right ? But what I noticed was most of the times exchanges odds bigger than what pannicle provided so which one of them really is true odds ? And also what we should look for is odds bigger than even what exchanges provided ? So there no way to make money of off true odds am I right ? Sorry for so many questions 😅😃
This video was for the novice/intermediate (easy), to help identify value without needing deep knowledge. This is a simple way of finding value bets, albeit it's a numbers game and you will need mass. The advantage of using this method is you can find mass, and start your journey. Also, i mentioned in the video that you need to convert Pinn odds into a 100% book (eg, 1.95 1.95 becomes 2.0 and 2.0). We added a ‘’additive’’ excel chart in the description for understanding! If you think about it, what is the true odds in sports betting? We know the true odds on a flip of a coin is 2.00 and 2.00, everything else is open to interpretation. In sports betting, the betting exchanges (market makers) are in the main tracking Asia. And, on that note, with bookmaker competition like it is, finding less sharp odds is relatively easy! 99% of our own bets are opinion based, so yes it is possible to beat the bookies based on skill. Again, I re-iterate, the method mentioned in the video is more simplistic and for those with the right betting accounts easy to exploit. Sports-modelling, iceberging, market driving, timing, and a number of other methods require deeper understanding. Look at the Pinn odds on any match-up, you will see a great amount of variance. In fact, if you could bet at peak odds for each side, you would nearly always beat the system!
Thanks for the videos and the insite and effort in teaching some of us who just dive in for the sake of earning fast cash. My question as a newbie...What do you mean when you say beat the odds? Thanks
@Thomas Gavia - Get better than the real odds (100% book). For example, on the betting exchanges, you might be able to bet both players A & B at odds of 2.00 2.00. If you can find a bookmaker offering 2.10 on Player A you are beating the odds. Watch this video on finding Value bets (and try the software) - What you are aiming to achieve is finding EV (expected value) bets that put the odds in your favour instead of the bookies th-cam.com/video/cZVlS6rTy-E/w-d-xo.html&t
Very intriguing and informative to a number cruncher like me! How close the start of the event do you recommend placing your bet? Also, is one tick enough, or more?
Take into consideration that this method can be used for both pre-match and in-play. Betting during a game makes it harder to detect ''advantage'' players. For the record, Pinnacle uses dynamic odds which represent the weight of money being bet, albeit team news, betting intelligence, and other dynamics force a reset (manual change). The starting line (when the game kicks off) is the most accurate, but that doesn't mean you should wait that long. In an ideal world, you need volatility, and odds won't change much in the last few minutes. With regards to ticks, it will depend on your level, stakes, number of bets. In theory, you should be able to find 10's of thousands per month, but it will depend on the bookies you have at hand. If you are just starting out, i would suggest looking for margins of 3%+. With in-play betting you will often see big difference of opinions, that makes it easier again. As with any business, leave a small margin for error!
@@leetaylor8652 I'm personally no fan of Smarkets. Going back a few years they earned a reputation for reneging on affiliate payments. As with most 'catch-up' Exchanges, liquidity isn't the best, and the odds discrepancy between ''back & lay'' is wider than with the more established exchanges. Generally speaking, market makers on exchanges are tracking the Asian odds, and the name of the game is finding out-of-line soft books!
@@BettingAnalyst Hey I still don't get it. For example I have done the calculation like the second example of three way bet... And I have removed the juice how do I know the team that will win? Please help if you understand
I lay bets all the time, but at the end of the day, a ''lay'' is a glorified bet on the other side. What is important is to recognise when to bet and when to lay. If you are astute why not!
l don't usually trust calculations, odds are mutually exclusive no matter what. many times l won bets that had 60cents but the ticket is messed by an obvious team that had 20cents and to maximize my chances of winning l fancy a double chance which had 5cents either way, the ticket is lost.
This method has helped me a lot to win the bet ... but at the moment I am losing money through this method, I don't know why? and this indicates that not all the time value bet will win?... please explain more if there is altenative way 🙏
I honestly still don’t understand the importance of calculating the odds, when I have found the original odds after removing the juice how do I now predict the winning team? Please help
@@BettingAnalyst I'm still a bit confused. The found odds can be above the readjusted odds, but that doesn't mean it has positive expected value right? The example of the flipped coin I understand, but not with different games, changing odds different stakes and 3 or more outcomes like football win draw lose.
@@BettingAnalyst ah ok I was missing the EV calculation which shows it's positive in this case. Where stake is $100; EV= (0.4651*(2.2-1)*100)+((1-0.4651)*-100)= 2.322
Hi, thank you for video, but you will bet home team for 2,2 odds because you reduced the juice and real odds is 2,15, but what if is draw or away team won you will lose.
As the saying goes, if you want a guarantee buy a toaster, or in the case of betting ''arbitrage'' (bet both sides of the coin). Value betting is based on getting the numbers up. If you get 5% on 1000 bets with 100 stakes, that's 5000 profit - The secret is not to be opinionated, just follow the maths.
@@BettingAnalyst So that`s 1,000 bets made at £100 stake on each = £100,000 spent --you can only get the the said 5% (5,000 profit) from the 1,000 bets made if all the bets win! The info you provided does not help in finding a winner in which ever sport you choose, all it does is give you a (true price) - and all you need to do is look at something like OddsChecker there you will find which bookmaker is offering the best price and on which sport then you simply place the bet with them cross your fingers and hope your bet wins. There is no need to work out the juice you cannot control the odds given - so just take the highest price given by the bookie and good look you either win or loose simple
@@berttrum3319 Clearly you don't understand: 1. You don't need all the bets to win! If half of them won at odds of 2.10 you would have your 5%. 2. Oddschecker/oddsportal and so on show which bookmakers have the best odds - That doesn't mean they are EV bets. 3. Indeed - it does not show you how to find a winner! There is no such thing, and anyone on a quest to becoming a professional gambler will understand betting is all about the odds. This shows you a relatively simple way of finding over the odds betting opportunities. 4. The one thing you did get right is 1000*100 = 100,000. However, to get to that level, it is important to listen and learn.
It came - it went! They have a small head to head offering on some top US races, but its a waste of time! To be honest, i have no idea why they re-introduced racing, it doesn't pass to the Pinnacle dynamic betting module!! What happens with these bookies is they wake up in the morning and think - ''lets add racing''. One month later its gone!
Use this fantastic software : shorturl.at/hK3wH : Pinnacle odds dropper is a great tool for professional Sports bettors
It’s great f you can redo a market to 100%. I have my own Excel sheet that does this. However it doesn’t matter by how much you beat the odds if your selection doesn’t win !
One of the best video’s I’ve seen, especially about the odds/ chance percentage thing which I go wrong at times I feel like. Thanks for this knowledge, helps a lot
Seriously knowledgeable bloke this, any aspiring bettors need to listen very carefully to this man’s advice
17 years of professional sports betting and I only chased ONE TIME !! I tell everyone that if you didn’t place the bet at the beginning of the day why you place it at the end of the day. Weakness cost people money so does EGO’s
I felt this 💯
@@bigpossum5482 Amen 🙏 And don’t place bets just because there’s a game (action junkie) value or advantage or pass. Sometimes the best bet is not making one 💪🏼
@@wizardofbetting seriously?? Do you not read ??
@@bigpossum5482 I hear you. I overcame CHASING by deciding to only check my ticket the following day when all games have been played. Otherwise I was losing money by trying to chase because I was watching the games I bet on... Now I only check my ticket only after knowing all games have been played
Well done. I am searching for such discipline.
Very good video, I've read most of the comments below, it seems people are not willing to put the effort in and wish to be spoon fed winning tips. Understanding value is so important if you are to turn the corner from being a mug to a profitable gambler. Watch the video again and take notes if you didn't understand it.
Thanks for the kind words! - I think you have summed it up in a nutshell, most people are too lazy to make betting viable. Even when they buy-in services (value betting / tips / data ), they fail to take advantage. For example, imagine paying for value betting software - It's like a buffet, if you are not hungry and ready to eat, there is no value! Same with betting accounts, betting with just one is like shopping for groceries in a solitary village shop. Every point counts!!
I'm sorry I need to know clearly that how to pick right bet/odd according to this strategy?
Great lesson! Thanks!
Simple straight forward reminder of the basics that too many people forget. Good video
I've started very little (I literally only placed bets to make cents at the beginning lol), but over time I've accumulated a nice portion. I can now bet a bit more money, and win a more... It's very easy to get impulsive and impatient, but growing your initial betting amount is the objective - not 'striking gold' by making uninformed choices. Don't bet on a team that you love just because you have a 'feeling' (it can work out, but it's stupid). You'll lose your money in a second if you bet based on feelings.
What is your strategy, what do you bet on?
So if I'm not mistaken, you place your bets on the bets with higher percentages of winning?
Can you be sending me your bets?
Can we be friends so that I can be getting games from you
How teach me
Thank you for this great opportunity to change my life! you the great human been
How do you know the extent to which the odds on the betting exchanges are an accurate reflection of the true probabilities of the event’s outcomes?
your channel is so amazing... now I know how to creat money litereally from nowhere...
Playing baseball always check the pitchers and with Colorado Rockies at home the bet is always the over. The ball flies in Colorado. Great money maker.
Never bet on baseball
Will try😅
@@christiansoldier77why
@@viciousv9671 because it's unpredictable. Bet football
@ I guess football is unpredictable as well 🤷
Thank you very much for this..really. a lot of people tell you to seek value, but nobody ever said how to find that value and the steps needed to see what is the base price. Looking forward to keep watching to your videos
Glad it was helpful!
@@BettingAnalystsir I need software greyhound game hacking odds rate change win confirm help me
Thank you, it also works a treat in a 8 dog race. But we all must remember that odds = probability % and that is down to the Bookies personal opinion. Most corp bookies in Australia aim for 120% to 140% Book. Thanks for the channel i am enjoying it.
Yes - in the UK its usually around 2% per runner for horses, and with dog racing (BAGS) they bet 120-130% (3.5 to 5% per runner). I prefer French racing(PMU 15% win pool = more runners the better) where I usually get a turnover rebate (high volume) of around 4% (deal with a POS). UK bookies offer fixed odds on the same (have to use high turnover shops to stay below the radar) and they are brainless, and on ocassions Betfair have a bit of liquidity on the same. I also have ''a bit'' of access to German/Italian bookies - but the stakes will be hundreds (won't get 4 figures). At the end of the day, the margin is less interesting than the market accuracy = opportunity knocks.
PS - also works for US racing & at least in Aus you have the minimum bet rule!
In Aus you at least have the minimum bet rule - UK bookies are the biggest pussy's in the world.
UK races are usually being offered at an over-round of about 2% per runner. Which compares to dog races of 4-5% per runner.
Still - the overall margin is less interesting than the accuracy - and some people are making a living out of the dogs!
I actually prefer French racing because my options are:
15% PMU - but with 4% turnover rebate (split commission with a POS for high volume) -
For the most part, betting against the average Joe!
UK bookies offer fixed odds on the same - They are useless & can be easily taken apart - but need to bet in high-volume shops to stay below the radar.
Exchanges - Volume isn't much, but plenty of value if you have time on your hands. The Arc weekend will have big volume!
Italy/German - Fixed odds (vary massively to those in the UK) - Realistically (if you know how), they will lay you to a payout of around 2500 to 5K - more at the big meetings!
PS: If I was down under I would be attacking Sportsbet (player markets) & Bet365 (biggest bookie/ biggest dope)
Good luck with your betting!
Much success for your channel
Very accurate and true video unfortunately you failed to mention with online accounts you will either be banned or severely restricted if you continue to keep betting at positive EV,the only way around this is to bet in the shops or with the exchanges.
Bookmaker's hate winners and punters who consistently take the value....
Thanks for your comments on this and the other video. At 13:16 I mention treading carefully with betting accounts because of the aforementioned. 14:05 Use third-party accounts. 14:30 Get others to open accounts on your behalf. Also, I mentioned that to stay in the game for a long time it is important to develop yourself and learn other ways to win!
By using this method (or value-betting) even a person with limited betting knowledge should be able to take an easy 5K from their own accounts. Profitable gamblers who play Leisure bookmakers full time learn to ''buy-in'' accounts (around $20K in bonus from US bookies alone & Italy around 5-6K if done right), and by creating a network the world is your oyster. Accounts will get more longevity by making ''in-play'' bets.
Finally - this is money that the average person can take, and it's money they didn't have before. The object of any business is to make money, and the longevity is then down to the individual involved.
@@BettingAnalyst fair point ,you did drop hints it was a good video and your content was truthful I just felt that my point was valid for any considering paying for third party software, to know ...
@@tonymathews4049 - In my opinion, the software is a low cost if you can get the betting accounts. Alternatively, track the betting exchanges (when they have liquidity). Watch the Asian platforms. Do the bonus abuse. Go each way thieving. Learn foreign racing (UK bookies are useless) - I covered some points in this video - th-cam.com/video/VzGu4DyL9So/w-d-xo.html -- The only important part is taking the bookie's money, and reverse-engineering the process.
@@BettingAnalyst Good reply it will certainly suit certain players EV is the only way to make money long term,not getting caught by the ever increasing sophistication of the bookies algorithms is the real secret.....
@@BettingAnalyst mmh
Thank you for your knowledge.
Thank you so much for helping my growth
Thank you
How do you place your bet after taking out the Juice?
No one been able to answer this 😅
Use a arbitrage calculator
Hi sir, thank you for all.
I have question :
Should we wait for the pinnacle closing line where the moment of calculation and removal of the juice is not important and the main thing is to beat the coast without pinnacle juice at a time T. ? thank you for your response.
Thanks!
The removal of the house edge is always going to be part of the deal, even if you are betting at the start (closing line) of a game. Here is a link to a betting tool for removing betting juice and giving true odds (use the MPTO line):
winnerodds.com/valuebettingblog/true-odds-calculator/
Nice video, genuine geeza wanting to smash those greedy bookmakers
You are not wrong! - It's just that I prefer the words ''scumbag online bookies'' - a horrible business that needs punishing!
when you said give me a thumbs up, I liked straight away and subd
i hear you but my question is do you use pre odds or do you use live odds to do calculations?
second question what happens if home & draw have positive value?
When you say live odds - i think you mean ''updated'' & not in-play! If that is the case - latest odds!
If its in-play you are referring to - you need to find higher odds than those offered by Pinnacle (minus juice).
It doesn't matter were the odds are advantageous, whether that be goal market, home, draw, away, Asian handicap - Its about taking the advantage!
@@BettingAnalysthow do u take the advantage?
All this is like double dutch to me . I need to see people betting on soccer as it happens and giving me ideas on what to do and when to do it , this is the key
A sense of reality is needed! - Complex betting as you mention (in-play football) can't be covered in a 20-minute video. This is the reason the video is called ''simple strategy'' - With all due respect, there is no blueprint for doing what you ask. It requires deep knowledge and loads of data crunching. furthermore, if you are calling this video '' double dutch'' - You have zero chance of devising modules, reading markets, and applying psychology. Where is the point of me adding a video for an advanced audience when most are looking for simple ways to win?
@@BettingAnalyst apologirs for my ignorance, I just have no idea what all these numbers are for , I'd need to sit down with you and go over in detail what exactly you're trying to get across and how to relate it in let's say betting before a soccer match for instance. Looking at this video I feel I had to have done a masters in advanced mathematics 😁 I'm probably complicating the whole thing but I do find it interesting if only I understood.
I've never come across anyone who can beat the bookies
@@handeyecoordinationskills I don't know enough about the country (laws) that you live in. However, if you can get the same betting accounts, and do things right winning is a formality --------- This video i did BIG PROFIT BETTING STRATEGY MADE SIMPLE (USING REBELBETTING) is a talk-through with examples and methods.
th-cam.com/video/cZVlS6rTy-E/w-d-xo.html&t
The link to the software that we cover in that video allows two weeks of FREE USE - you can test it against the bookies that you can get, while at the same time learn about Value betting.
@@BettingAnalystappreciate that , thanks
thanks for your video, it is really helpfull i will try it and comment back later
Can I get in touch with you? I am really not clear. I understood what the Juice is but I am not understanding how to beat the odds or what is the best option to choose(understanding the juice) for frequent wins slowly. I am not greedy but I lose alot! I need better strategies
If the video is beyond your understanding, make life easy on yourself. Simply subscribe to a value betting software, and let it do the work for you!
Thanks for this video.
The reason i came here was cause of the man
I am not sure if you look back at old videos but i do have a question. When you say "the odds" is that just the line? I am in America and so tonight is Thursday night football. New England +240 and Pittsburgh -300. So when i calculate the percent do i take the 100 and divide by 2.4 (+240for New England) and by 3 (-300 for Pittsburgh)? or how do i use American odds?
Martin odds/Line
With the 240 you add the stake 100 =340 (3.4)
-300 = 1.33333 (1/1.3333 = 75%)
+240 = 3.40 (1/3.4 =29.4%)
In this instance, the over-round is 104.4%
If laying to balance amounts, the sportsbook returns 95.79 (100/104.4) for every 100 wagered.
That's just one sportsbook - If you go line shopping (more accounts) you can squeeze that number down.
Best
ps - you could use a simple guide to get the hang of things:
www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html
Thanks Great info.
Are you suggesting for initial or updated odds given by bookies?
How do I use this information to identify the winner?
I wish they had a video like this with American odds
Invest time in learning about the different types of odds - Decimal is so much more practical. Most betting sites have a setting, and once you understand them it's easy.
I've just got some figures for you and the audience: player 1 6.27 player 2 1.13 and another is player 1. 1.77 and player 2 2.09 (decimal system) Would you be kind enough to explain this... thanks for all your great sharing!!
If you can bet player one to beat player 2 at odds of 6.27 and player one at 1.77 you are guaranteed to make a profit. However, with such a vast difference, you have to worry about the bookmaker not paying (claiming palpable error)=
@@BettingAnalyst The american system is showing this results player 1 +527(6.27) player 2 -143 (1.13) and in the other game player 1 -129(1.77) and player 2 +109 (2.09).
If I follow the american system i'm guarantee to win on the minus side -143 and -129.? But you are telling me to be player one (game1 1) and also player 1 in game 2.?
Καλησπερα και μπραβο για τα ωραια σας βιντεο!!!Υπαρχει δυνατοτητα να βλεπω τις αποδοσεις τηε pinnacle...ειμαι απο Ελλαδα..και δεν μπορω να εχω προσβαση....εκτος απο σελιδες που δειχνουνε καποιες αποδοσεις συγκριτικα...ευχαριστω εκ των προτερων!
Thanks - You have a few alternatives. 1. Use a VPN. 2. Use a odds comparison site such has Bet monitor. 3. Sign up to an asian betting broker and access it through there platform.
Hi there thank you for sharing this knowledge I think this is wonderfull. We should use Pinnacle opening or closing odds or it doesn't matter?? Is Pinnacle oppening odds accurate as well??
Pinnacle odds is a strong guide! If you think about it, when you are placing a bet early - you are literally futures trading. Odds fluctuate, and it isn't where the market will end (odds change). Beating the Pinnacle/Betfair starting odds is the target of professional sports bettors, but in the instance of 'no opinion'' value bettors, the value is at the time of placing a bet (ie - don't overthink it).
@@BettingAnalyst Thank you very much for replyng. Right now I have few positive EV strategies the problem is although tey are value bets I have low volume of bets per month and my bank is growing very slow with this that you show us I can have finnaly volume of bets that will hopefullt«y grow my bank faster. thank you once again.
@@jadbiz You could subscribe to a value betting platform - then do a X check against Pinn lines for added insurance
Is there any site to check the pinnacle’s odds? Like the one you posted at your example at 7.20 of this video.. I can’t register to pinnacle from my country that’s why I need it
Oddsportal is fed Pinnacle odds
Why do you exactly take the platform pinnacle as basis for the vig calculation ?
Sharpest lines are an easy way to benchmark
Ofcuse we like it uncle keep going 👍
This may be a stupid question, but can you Dutch bet while finding Positive EV? Or are they completely separate?
With regards to this video, it's more about the best of 2 or 3 as in a football match!
I need to answer your question twice, in that there is a Dutch & split bet.
For the sake of simplicity, lets us take a football match where the odds the Pinn (asian odds) were 2.00 (-0.5 Home win) - 1.92 (+0.5 Away win + draw).
The converted 100% odds are 2.043 - 1.96 and you can get 1.98 (+2 pips). Alternatively, you can look for the best draw odds, and best away odds.
Keeping it simple:
If you found 3.333 (draw) and 5.00 (away) you can increase by placing 60 on the draw and 40 away) the +0.5 to odds of 2.00 (+4 pips).
This can also be done for quarter ball, and other asian handicap odds if they are something you understand!
As for a dutch bet - I do this with racing, albeit I tend to have more on my main bet and cover with the 2nd.
Nevertheless, the answer is YES - You can Dutch/Split for positive EV
Hi, I am a novice. I did not understand the part about pinnacle are you saying their odds are right over 95% of the time? I.e. they odds rightly reflect who the winner and loser of the match will be? Thank you for producing these videos
This is from our tutorial - How to use Pinnacle odds to guide
In our experience, Pinnacle odds are about the most accurate on the market. While nothing is 100%, our data research gives Pinnacle a 99.4% accuracy rating. Furthermore, if you find another bookmaker site that is better at a league/sport, the same method applies.
www.betting-analyst.com/sports-betting-win-using-this-simple-strategy/ - That is the text format that might be easier to understand! Value betting is a great way for a novice to get on the right track - Learn a bit more, and then give it a go and you will see for yourselves!
Hey I still don't get it. For example I have done the calculation like the second example of three way bet... And I have removed the juice how do I know the team that will win? Please help if you understand
I'm the same too, Cai..
@@kevinthompson8806Pls what number am I calculating to remove the juice. Help please
after all the calculations removal of the juices u find different odds .. So my questions is which one is the correct winning odds ???
There's no correct winning odds due to life's variance and other stuffs. The truth to winning consistently is to model or create concepts that can help u to win. I said so because anything created by man which involves money requires manipulation. That being said, you have to be good at analysing the data of a football match plus good sense of discernment because sports gambling is about the odds on offer by the bookies.
If you don't know how to interpret the odds in addition to all the great information in this video and understanding line shopping, you will be losing consistently.
@BettingAnalyst opened my eyes to something spectacular in one of his recent videos and I sacrificed my time to do my own calculations. I was spot on with Chesterfield Vs Notty game two days ago with exact 2-2 correct score and Hauchipato Vs Colo-colo yesterday with exact 1-2 correct score.
Cc: @BettingAnalyst 🎉
Pls sir I love and appreciate ur teachings and videos, pls sir can you explain to me how to find the juice, and also are we betting on the juice or odds. Thank you Sir and God Blesses your wisdom and Knowledge. Love you
Hi Prince Godwin! The video explains how to convert the odds into a 100% book, and then your job is to find higher odds!
You can also use a software such has Rebelbetting to identify EV (expected value) for the bookmakers you have at hand.
I did a separate video th-cam.com/video/cZVlS6rTy-E/w-d-xo.html&t . There is alternative software that you can google for the same. The only secret is betting at higher odds than ''true odds'' - Its a numbers game!
All well and good but bookmakers don't like winners. They will first entice prospective clients with "bonuses" and then make them jump through hoops to be "account verified". Win a few quid and you will likely be severely limited to very small bets if you are lucky or "gubbed" (accounts closed) if not. Better off trading on the Exchanges.
By all means, have your say, but betting exchanges are useless for Sports-betting. If you get an average of 500 out of each online bookmaker account and you have 20 - it's still 10k per person. Of course, if you get good at betting (which using exchanges suggest you are) and find a way to profit through knowledge, then all your bets are funnelled through Asia!! No commission, high limits, through agents can change accounts each week, winners welcome, and no bookmaker (KYC). While i certainly don't need to justify myself, you have to learn how to crawl, before you can walk, and then start running! - the secret is to make the journey profitable!
Thank u vry mch ,i have been betting soccer for a long time but i did win please expln to me after i done how do i see the tea will win
Its betting - We don't know which team will win until after the game! This video is about beating the odds, thus creating an advantage!
I've watched most of your videos up to now. All very enjoyable. In earlier videos you advise real price (100% book) is between back/lay on betfair. Which is more accurate in your opinion?
Thanks for watching! To best answer your question. You can use both, its just that Pinnacle will give you more options. You may have noticed that over the years Betfair liquidity dropped, and markets are getting established later. In short, Betfair works fine with big leagues , whereas Pinnacle works with all leagues/sports. Also, the Betfair market makers / traders are using Pinnacle/ Asia for guidance and hedging
Hello! In the Three-way bet example, why the juice isn´t 3.57%???
It's the maths - the over-round is 103.57 and that = 96.55% payout --- meaning the juice is 100-96.55! -------- its like if you had 6 runners in a race and they were all offered at odds of 5.0 (20%) --- 6*20 = 120 whereas the payout is 83.3%
Great article but unable to find any horses on pinnacle at this moment.
Thanks - it is meant for Sports-betting and more specifically Asian handicaps.
Using Pinnacle as a guide could you bet say the day before, or would you recommend closer to the event? Thanks in advance.
Lee - There are more ways to skin a cat! If our business module was built on value-betting, i would be loitering around Pinnacle for opening lines. Those early odds bookmakers make mistakes, so there is an advantage to be had. However, with a word of warning, your tactics would be easier to detect, and that could lead to limits being applied sooner rather than later. Also, my advice is stay away from crap (3rd league handball), and concentrate on higher liquidity leagues/sports/matches. Finally, in-play bets are the hardest to detect, and there is a tonne of value. My advice - reverse engineer your own situation - experience, funds, bookies available, past record (a poor one can help - accounts will have more leverage), and so on. Your target should be earn while you learn!
Tony I have a question... After removing juice Between ( 2. 49( 3.98) 2.92) should I be following the smaller number on the left or the bigger number on the right? Who's gonna be the winner?
The aim is to find bigger odds than the ''no juice market'' ------- If you see odds (keeping it simple) 2.85 2.85 2.85 ----- (the no juice is 3.0 3.0 3.0) Now you go line shipping (more betting accounts = more options) and the best odds you can find are 2.90 2.90 3.20 ------- your bet is the away because you have higher than true odds!
Thanks Tony for your guidance. Sometimes both home and away have same odds it's really hard to get the truth... Another one of my challenges. I consume alot of time comparing with different books I guess hard work here is needed no lazying... 🤣🤣
A good method is to use a tool like pinnacleoddsdropper - Google it and see if it helps
I became a pro sports bettor by studying mma non stop for about 6 years until I could predict well over 70% of fights but...this definitely seems easier 😂 sadly I suck at math but y'all should do it this way
Being a profitable ''opinionated'' gambler has its advantages. However, as you say, this is easier.
In the States, i would recommend you get stuck into the enticement bonuses being offered by bookies. As they all fight for market share, it's a great opportunity for advantage takers. With regards to maths, you don't need to be an expert.
Check out this video, it's about how software will lead you to EV bets (expected value). It's particularly interesting for US sports! While i covered Rebelbetting in this video, you have loads of options. BIG PROFIT BETTING STRATEGY MADE SIMPLE (USING REBELBETTING) - th-cam.com/video/cZVlS6rTy-E/w-d-xo.html&t
Hey where can i buy fixed matches!
@@cindyy4017 💀
So is it a “value bet” if the odds on my betting site are higher then the odds i calculated? Or am I saying something crazy now
You got it! The bigger the difference, the higher the betting value! You can use a tool like: winnerodds.com/valuebettingblog/true-odds-calculator/ . Use the MPTO (margin proportional to odds calculation!! It can be used for any sport, and best of 2 or 3 betting. PS: Give yourself a chance by having a number of accounts/betting outlets - Good luck
What odd are best for both team to score
After knowing true odds then how do I predict the winning team? What is the importance of knowing the true odds exactly (I’m new in betting I’m just trying to understand)
If you are new to betting - the easiest way forward is to sign up to value betting software and allow it to find your positive EV (expected value) bets. Much is explained in our other videos on the site
What is the best betting time
That's actually a good question, but the answer will depend on the person and his/her understanding of the betting market.
In football, when team news comes out markets can be volatile, and betting near the start reflects the CLV (closing line value). With tennis, watch for when Pinnacle release their opening lines, the softbooks are in many cases easy to expose!
thanks for the video. I now understand how to get the 100% bookmakers odds without the juice. my question is what do you do after getting the true odds to make consistent profit?
If you can be more specific?
You find the odds, bet the odds, log (record) the results, while continually looking for the next bets.
Do it often enough, and you will make a tidy profit which in theory will help you build a bigger betting bank.
Practice makes perfect!
One strategy is don't place the same amount on every bet. Good money mgmt you build in the fact you will lose some bets, but if you can consistently win over 60% you can do something like 10,12.5,15 and toggle between those 3 bets. so you have a low bet and a top bet
Gud qn
How did you get the 2.0 ,3.5 and 4.0 on the 3 way bet I'm confused
When the odds are say 15/1
Hi mate. Do you know of any data analysis tool for spots other than football. A tool like Betaminic but for sports like NFL, MMA, NCAAF, NBA etc.
Hi Fergal, it will be dependent on what you are willing to pay for such services. Are you feeding it into Algorithmic Sports-modelling ?. At the lower end of the budget something like advancedsportsanalytics, while more established is the likes of sportsdata.io/. One of our guys here said Rotogrinders have options. For US sport, i believe the choice is massive!
@@BettingAnalyst awesome. Thanks for the reply mate.
I found action labs and sports analytics simulator. But yeah quite expensive. Maybe something to think about in future.
Thanks.
@@fergaldownes - Your welcome! One thing is certain, US sports can be an easy touch with value betting. If i was in your shoes, i would remove the brain part and concentrate on picking the bastards off! Increase number of bets, pay particular attention to player markets. Look for betting outlets in the Southern hemisphere (sportsbet/topsport/pointsbet), and it will soon grow.
@@BettingAnalyst awesome. Cheers for the tips mate. I'm at 8% ROI at the moment. Let's see if I can increase that. 💪
For example you i will bet in ods 1.85 vs 2.02 i will pick what? 2.02??
Nice 👍
So if I'm not mistaken, you place on bets with higher winning percentages,?
With higher winning ODDS
Hello what happens when two bookmaker odds beat the pinnacle unjuiced odd
Nothing changes - same procedure. Many bookies carry the same odds because they are buying them in from a third party service. Also, some bookmakers are part of the same group, thus the same applies!
Thank you for your videos. You explain them in nice and simplistic terms.
Hey I still don't get it. For example I have done the calculation like the second example of three way bet... And I have removed the juice how do I know the team that will win? Please help if you understand
@@cailosh.3993 Simply, you dont. You count on fact that bookmakers made the odds correctly. So, after you remove juice, you get the probabilities to win for each team and you seek odds provided by your bookmaker that are higher than your counted value. For example, if the probability of winning of team 1 is 50% with odds 2.1 and team 1 actually won in 50 of 100 times (just example), you won 5 units (1,1*50-50).
@@zb0nk this is way to complex for an average better.
By using this method please explain by what time odds are being accurate ? Because odds change anytime, and sometime u can find different value ..so this situation of odds to change doesn't affect this method?
You are beating the market price at the time.
If you are tracking the right source your margin will hold-up!
While there are other methods for reading markets, it's technology-based and for those organizations with deep pockets!
Can this calculation be done with overs and unders
Yes - it would be especially efficient in the goal market and a lot easier for you to understand (best of two)
How do you know the 2.07 ( inverted to 2.15) is the real odd? It could have been the 2.21 inverted to 2.23 if you choose BetinAsia. How do you know which odds are the real world fair odds? Why did you choose Pinnacle as your starting point?
All explained clearly in the video!
@@BettingAnalyst yes true, I stopped the video to ask the question when playing further is was explained. Sorry for that.
danke,sehr gute arbeit,habe viel gelernt.wie ist das inplay? wenn ich die pinnaccle quote schlage nach demselben prinzip,müsste auch positiv enden oder? besten danke,machen sie weiter so
Danke! Ja Pinnacle ist besser aber man muss zwei Sachen beachten; mache die Quoten zurück auf 100% (z.B. 1,95 und 1,95 ist 2,0 und 2,0) und Pinnacle Quoten bei Live-Wetten ist eine Meinungssache an Stelle von dynamischen Quoten (bei Pre Match Wetten). Für die richtigen Quoten muss man unbedingt in Pinnacle eingeloggt sein! Viel Erfolg!
@@BettingAnalyst ah,ok danke sehr,habe bisher nur über oddsportal die inplayquoten abgeglichen,mit par softbookies,,hat easy ausgeschaut,over pinnaccle 1.4,betwinner 1.5,theotetisch ca 15% value,aber eben war nicht eingeloggt,danke für den tip und die schnelle antwort
@@schulssss Pinnacle 1.4 - 3.0 (100% = 1.44 - 3.27). Immerhin positiv EV
Wonderful...
Thanks for the video but how do bet & win??
If i use only pinnacle as guide and if I see value bet on betfair exchange and only if I place bets on betfair exchanges or other exchanges will I in long term be in profit? I know that betfair exchange are also sharp or are they? Thank for your help
Once the market becomes active (liquidity), most of the Betfair/exchange deep odds (volume) are derived from Asian bookies!
However, you will get the trumpers (individuals offering a pip or two more), market manipulators (need movement), and traders hedging back.
In short, Asians use dynamic odds which move according to supply/demand. Exchanges follow, and it's more of a case of timing/negotiating your bet!
Pinnacle & Betfair are both great guides, but that doesn't mean they can't be beaten. Nevertheless, the margins are fine, and you will need loads of volume to make it worthwhile!
Soft books are an easier touch!
@@BettingAnalyst thanks for reply
@@BettingAnalyst Hi there. I have been using this strategy for a while but my ROI are negative 2 percent. I have been using pinnacle as a guide and also cloudbet. The markets on wich I have been placing bets are corner handicap, booking over under, asian handicap for sports tennis,soccer and basketball. I cant realize what I have doing wrong? I just wonder wich market are the best to bet on. Is it 1X2 for soccer? Is that matters? Thanks in advance
@@igorkulaga3535 - If you have enough bets in the system, and have successfully removed the Pinnacle Juice (thus betting at positive EV) you shouldn't be losing.
Betfair market makers track the Asians (Pinnacle - Sinbet - IBC - ISN etc) and work with tight margins (commission advantage - getting rebates from both sides).
With Betfair/Pinn you won't see many differentials unless it's for a few peanuts!
Raise your EV expectancy! - As for the question about Betfair, yes it's an accurate guide to market odds if there is liquidity! The lower-grade stuff is useless!
@@BettingAnalyst thanks for reply. What do you think about cloudbet as a guide?
If i place a value bet and there is no longer value before the match starts is it better to cashout and loose some or simply do nothing? I have placed about 1500 bets on only few bookies and still not in positive. I also use en.surebet.com as a guide to see valuebets and even compare it with pinnacle and cloudbet (removing the juice) but still not good. And for the end you typed " the lower grade stuff". Did you ment low liquidity? The highest liquidity is on 1x2 market (match odds) for soccer, maybe is it better to focus only on match odds?
After I find the real odds. How do I find bet sites with those odds.
I’m new to sports betting. The language/verbage in this video makes it difficult to fully understand the math, I don’t speak sports betting language. Pls send links to other videos to learn the basics and foundation. I want to learn to bet to profit, not bet for fun. Like what does 1.95 mean on understanding odds? When I look at betting odds it’s +110 or -135 etc. Thank you, I will continue to replay and try to better understand in mean time
Ask yourself this - Do you think the US way of betting (-135) is the most logical? For me, the answer is a definite NO & fortunately i've convinced all my US clients to think the same.
Decimal is the most logical way of offering/betting odds - all you have to do is change an outdated method in your APPS settings. With decimal, you see your potential win straight away, and when making parlays (you simply * the numbers together and they do the same with the stake!!
Here is a link to a simple conversion chart:
www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html
ALSO - my advice if you haven't made this mistake already!
Do not open betting accounts until you understand how to get the most out of them! Otherwise, you will fail to optimise any incentive bonus & you won't maximise out on accounts which eventually get closed/restricted by sportsbooks for winning (advantage taking).
Before you even start, you should consider:
How much you can put aside for a betting bank.
Which in turn will dictate your stake sizing, and your ability to MAX out any bonus, line shopping (more accounts the better), any costs of software (if needed), ROI, risk (safe is matchedbetting/Arbitrage - but returns are substantially lower - Whereas, Value betting increases ROI, but it does come with variance.
With regards to my videos - the one you watched would be the most simplified. My target audience is more proven winning gamblers who want to streamline. With that said, i consider at least 20 of my 80+ videos to be ideal for beginners, and you could google/search terms like beginners - its just that the average video doesn't tell you anything worthwhile!
Good luck
Hi with a 3 way true ODDS of 1.31. 6.25. 12.15
And most stock betting side got a odds of 1.27. 6.00. 13.00 is there any value in a game like this?
Not unless you know more than the market!
Hii after calculating 3 way 100% pinnacle odds should I compare them with 100% book odds or the juiced book odds thanks
You simply need to beat those odds - only the odds you receive are of interest!
For example: If the Pinnacle 100% book odds are 2.50 3.33 3.33. and you can find the best odds (with bookies you have at hand) of 2.60 3.20 3.20 - take the 2.60 - it's 10 pips higher
@@BettingAnalystso I should compare the 100% pinnacle odds with the juced bookie odds
What about backing a draw? Just do the same maths and back it with a bookie who is paying a decent bit more than the true odds?
If you are getting over true odds, that's the key to beating bookmakers at their own game.
You could also make it easy on yourself by signing up for value-betting software. While they work with amalgamated odds, they will be pumping out loads of positive EV (expected value) bets.
I'm really so happy for your formula, although am still confused on how one gets the profits, can you please elaborate on how to get profits here
Simple - I did elaborate in the video!
Continually beat the true odds (as calculated in this formula) and you will win!
Still confused, how should I bet so that I can get profits
@@Sum-10 If this is too difficult for you to understand, make life easier! - Sign up to a value-betting software and let them provide you with Positive EV (expected value) betting propositions!
i would like to be advised where to sign up for value betting
Does this method work with high odds, lets say odds over 10.00 or is there an odd limit at which is no longer profitable?
I believe I mention in the video that it works best for the lower odds - The maths changes a little when the odds get bigger, and that's why you will often see a Pinnacle 10.00 become a 12.5 on the exchanges.
I probably missed it. So I limited the highest odds I go for to 6.00. Is that low enough, or should I go even lower? @@BettingAnalyst
It is very confusing and as the day goes odds keep on changing and when doing the calculation sometimes i find the odds os at 1.45 but u get a 1.40
Its not confusing at all - Lines move all day long, and you can't control that! However, by staying ahead of the Pinnacle line you will stay ahead of the bookmaker! As you see on this and many other threads, plenty of people are saying it works for them!
Thanks for your content, you never disappoint. I’d like clarity on somethings if you don’t mind. As a positive EV bettor, how many trades am I expected to take daily, also, using fractional kelly criterion, can I place multiple bets at almost same time? If yes, will I recalculate my position sizing (using kelly criterion) after each bet to place another bet immediately without waiting for the outcome of the first bet.
Example: Assuming I’m betting with $1,000, I used $50 for the first bet which hasn’t been settled. I have a balance of $950, will I recalculate my position sizing with $950 without waiting for the bet on $50 to settle. I really need clarity on this and how profitable it might be. Thanks a lot. I really hope you reply
I wouldn't use the Kelly Criterion because not all bets are created equal. By that i mean, more flexibility can be shown, in that you stake according to EV and quality of the Sport. I would trust higher liquidity markets to stand the test of time!
Also, if your bets are online, be weary about betting non appropriate sums (EG with cents on the end), it tells the bookies that you are playing a system!
I'm assuming that you are in Africa, so in theory you could place (reliable) friends in crowded shops who you feed bets?
Two more points - 5% of your betting bank per bet is too much! You could only place 20 bets per day, thus your account options (because lack of funds) would become too small. Around 1% would be better!
ps - Here is a video on how you can identify advantage plays th-cam.com/video/cZVlS6rTy-E/w-d-xo.html&t. - I suggest a software on there, but their are other alternatives.
I don't think we need to get into making adjustments on staking plans because i'm suggesting that you avoid % plays. Just think, it's a numbers game, thus you need a bigger spread of bets. Finally, you can adjust stakes based on performance every month as your bank grows. Needless to say, a good run can be followed by a bad run, and vice versa!
@@BettingAnalystThank you very much for the reply/advice. I really appreciate
How will i know the winning team after making all that calculation sir?
It is a numbers game, the more high-value bets you can find, the better. Here is the blog tutorial : www.betting-analyst.com/sports-betting-win-using-this-simple-strategy/
You don’t. But the more bets you place with the odds in your favor eventually you’re going to surpass the bookie
@@BettingAnalyst this link is nt working
@@onebowl5262 Thanks for the notice (we changed the site) - this is the link:
betting-analyst.com/tutorials/sports-betting-win-using-this-simple-strategy/
Thanks sir , please how do you use this method to predict for a strate win in 3 way method?
Its no different - expand the chart to incorporate longer odds.
@@BettingAnalyst please can you kindly show me the formula for calculating for a strate win? Pleas.
great video, more people need to understand how odds work and what value is, odds is an interesting topic. You never say anything about an exchange though its very hard to find value with a bookiemake and when you do and you keep taking it then you will not be using there services for long as you will get your account stake resticted just seems like allot of work to try and beat the book maker but there is no long term gain from a bookmaker why take 1.85 odds with a book maker when you can go on the exchange and get true odds of 1.98 you loose a very tiny amount to the other side but if you have the edge in what your doing then that tiny amount then tips in your favor and again no need to worry about being gubbed or poor prices and the nice thing with the exchange is unlike a bookie where you can only find value on the back side on the exchange theres plently of value on the lay side. i really hope more people use an exchanges in the future, personally i trade on them but theres nothing wrong with being a punter and just punting as normal like you would with a bookie maker but you will always get a better price as book makers build there pricing based on the exchange prices again there true odds not the chopped up shite the bookie will offer you.
I haven't really delved into opinion betting, and from my own perspective, that's what I do! However. Secondly, as you said, at Exchanges you are playing at market price, and not everyone has access to the low commission, or indeed exchanges. Finally, it is not true that you can't find better odds with bookmakers. Many are slow to change prices, and they cover many more markets (no liquidity on exchanges). What about things like each-way thieving (in shops). Betting French racing (in shops), the UK and Irish bookies are clueless with odds. What should one do, show you cards for a couple of hundred on the Exchange or duck and dive to get a few K down without them noticing? I have a list of over 50 people that I have value betting with bookies, and some of them are making 50-100k per month. I believe I mention in every video - there is no blueprint. you have to find what's best for yourself. For me, that's betting in Asia (or racing bets in shops), but for many its ducking and diving (gnome accounts) and making the leisure bookie pay - it is more profitable than 5 and dimers on the Exchanges (read the stats).
I hope that declares my position.
Crispy, do you know any bookie agent / local I can call to place a bet on NFL + NBA once in a while, by any chance?
For the case of Jack pots after getting the true odds when juice is removed what next im stuck???
I'm stuck with understanding the question!
The only time to bet jackpots (lottery style) is when the rollover is bigger than the sum being wagered!
@@BettingAnalyst I'm also stuck with the explanation sir
I don't have a Pinnacle account. Can I use Bovado ?
You don't need a Pinnacle account - that is simply your benchmark (odds you need to beat). Pinnacle odds can be found without signing, either on the website or through www.betmonitor.com/odds-comparison/
You could also use Betfair as a Benchmark - when the Exchange is at 100%
The information you provide for beginners is insanely useful 👌 Well done
So your saying almost mostvof the times true odds provide by pannicle right ? But what I noticed was most of the times exchanges odds bigger than what pannicle provided so which one of them really is true odds ? And also what we should look for is odds bigger than even what exchanges provided ? So there no way to make money of off true odds am I right ? Sorry for so many questions 😅😃
This video was for the novice/intermediate (easy), to help identify value without needing deep knowledge.
This is a simple way of finding value bets, albeit it's a numbers game and you will need mass. The advantage of using this method is you can find mass, and start your journey. Also, i mentioned in the video that you need to convert Pinn odds into a 100% book (eg, 1.95 1.95 becomes 2.0 and 2.0). We added a ‘’additive’’ excel chart in the description for understanding!
If you think about it, what is the true odds in sports betting? We know the true odds on a flip of a coin is 2.00 and 2.00, everything else is open to interpretation. In sports betting, the betting exchanges (market makers) are in the main tracking Asia. And, on that note, with bookmaker competition like it is, finding less sharp odds is relatively easy!
99% of our own bets are opinion based, so yes it is possible to beat the bookies based on skill. Again, I re-iterate, the method mentioned in the video is more simplistic and for those with the right betting accounts easy to exploit. Sports-modelling, iceberging, market driving, timing, and a number of other methods require deeper understanding. Look at the Pinn odds on any match-up, you will see a great amount of variance. In fact, if you could bet at peak odds for each side, you would nearly always beat the system!
Can i I use Betfair exchange as a guide instead of pinnacle?
Yes - If their is enough liquidity in the market
Thanks for the videos and the insite and effort in teaching some of us who just dive in for the sake of earning fast cash. My question as a newbie...What do you mean when you say beat the odds? Thanks
@Thomas Gavia - Get better than the real odds (100% book).
For example, on the betting exchanges, you might be able to bet both players A & B at odds of 2.00 2.00. If you can find a bookmaker offering 2.10 on Player A you are beating the odds.
Watch this video on finding Value bets (and try the software) - What you are aiming to achieve is finding EV (expected value) bets that put the odds in your favour instead of the bookies
th-cam.com/video/cZVlS6rTy-E/w-d-xo.html&t
So you only beat the odds if the odds for both team first came out equal ?
Very intriguing and informative to a number cruncher like me! How close the start of the event do you recommend placing your bet? Also, is one tick enough, or more?
Take into consideration that this method can be used for both pre-match and in-play. Betting during a game makes it harder to detect ''advantage'' players. For the record, Pinnacle uses dynamic odds which represent the weight of money being bet, albeit team news, betting intelligence, and other dynamics force a reset (manual change). The starting line (when the game kicks off) is the most accurate, but that doesn't mean you should wait that long. In an ideal world, you need volatility, and odds won't change much in the last few minutes. With regards to ticks, it will depend on your level, stakes, number of bets. In theory, you should be able to find 10's of thousands per month, but it will depend on the bookies you have at hand. If you are just starting out, i would suggest looking for margins of 3%+. With in-play betting you will often see big difference of opinions, that makes it easier again. As with any business, leave a small margin for error!
@@BettingAnalystThank you for the reply. I do have a 0% commission smarkets account. Could this be advantageous?
@@leetaylor8652 I'm personally no fan of Smarkets. Going back a few years they earned a reputation for reneging on affiliate payments. As with most 'catch-up' Exchanges, liquidity isn't the best, and the odds discrepancy between ''back & lay'' is wider than with the more established exchanges. Generally speaking, market makers on exchanges are tracking the Asian odds, and the name of the game is finding out-of-line soft books!
Now im learning
@@BettingAnalyst Hey I still don't get it. For example I have done the calculation like the second example of three way bet... And I have removed the juice how do I know the team that will win? Please help if you understand
I want know how i can bet both team to score
Hello, what is your opinion on lay betting? Many thanks.
I lay bets all the time, but at the end of the day, a ''lay'' is a glorified bet on the other side.
What is important is to recognise when to bet and when to lay. If you are astute why not!
l don't usually trust calculations, odds are mutually exclusive no matter what. many times l won bets that had 60cents but the ticket is messed by an obvious team that had 20cents and to maximize my chances of winning l fancy a double chance which had 5cents either way, the ticket is lost.
This method has helped me a lot to win the bet ... but at the moment I am losing money through this method, I don't know why? and this indicates that not all the time value bet will win?... please explain more if there is altenative way 🙏
Arbitrage is the only guaranteed method.
How did you get the inverted?
At 3.05 on the video i explain how to invert - total percent divided into 100. (100/102.56 = 97.50)
I honestly still don’t understand the importance of calculating the odds, when I have found the original odds after removing the juice how do I now predict the winning team? Please help
You compare contrast the odds to the different books in the example I believe
Do you always choose the one with the highest probabilty is that correct?
No - You bet the one that is over the readjusted odds! If both are over, you have a arbitrage and can take advantage.
@@BettingAnalyst I'm still a bit confused. The found odds can be above the readjusted odds, but that doesn't mean it has positive expected value right? The example of the flipped coin I understand, but not with different games, changing odds different stakes and 3 or more outcomes like football win draw lose.
@@BettingAnalyst ah ok I was missing the EV calculation which shows it's positive in this case. Where stake is $100; EV= (0.4651*(2.2-1)*100)+((1-0.4651)*-100)= 2.322
Hi, thank you for video, but you will bet home team for 2,2 odds because you reduced the juice and real odds is 2,15, but what if is draw or away team won you will lose.
As the saying goes, if you want a guarantee buy a toaster, or in the case of betting ''arbitrage'' (bet both sides of the coin). Value betting is based on getting the numbers up. If you get 5% on 1000 bets with 100 stakes, that's 5000 profit - The secret is not to be opinionated, just follow the maths.
@@BettingAnalyst thank you
@@BettingAnalyst thank you
@@BettingAnalyst So that`s 1,000 bets made at £100 stake on each = £100,000 spent --you can only get the the said 5% (5,000 profit) from the 1,000 bets made if all the bets win! The info you provided does not help in finding a winner in which ever sport you choose, all it does is give you a (true price) - and all you need to do is look at something like OddsChecker there you will find which bookmaker is offering the best price and on which sport then you simply place the bet with them cross your fingers and hope your bet wins. There is no need to work out the juice you cannot control the odds given - so just take the highest price given by the bookie and good look you either win or loose simple
@@berttrum3319 Clearly you don't understand:
1. You don't need all the bets to win! If half of them won at odds of 2.10 you would have your 5%.
2. Oddschecker/oddsportal and so on show which bookmakers have the best odds - That doesn't mean they are EV bets.
3. Indeed - it does not show you how to find a winner! There is no such thing, and anyone on a quest to becoming a professional gambler will understand betting is all about the odds. This shows you a relatively simple way of finding over the odds betting opportunities.
4. The one thing you did get right is 1000*100 = 100,000. However, to get to that level, it is important to listen and learn.
i can't see horse racing odds on pinnacle odds?
It came - it went!
They have a small head to head offering on some top US races, but its a waste of time!
To be honest, i have no idea why they re-introduced racing, it doesn't pass to the Pinnacle dynamic betting module!!
What happens with these bookies is they wake up in the morning and think - ''lets add racing''. One month later its gone!
Great