Fascinating stuff Kie! I feel you’ve explained a pretty complex subject very well-given that it’s complicated! For me, given what you’ve said here, is about whether or not I’m prepared to sit and analyse data on games until the blood vessels in my eyes turn a deep shade of purple. But I can see how important it is not to go with ‘emotion’, i.e. that gut instinct that, say, L’Pool or Man C. will thrash most teams they play so go with them or, vice versa, the bottom of the table teams losing most of the time (which they probably will based on past performance) over the course of the 38 matches they play.. There’s clearly more science to trading than most of us can get our heads around but thank you for taking the time to help the less arithmetical of us to at least get a grip on why it’s important to stay calm, focused and then trade with logic and not emotion. Great video. Thank you. 👍
Expectation of X is most important, but how do you start? Well, in stock market trading, for example, you would record the number of wins against the number of loses eg, I win 60% and lose 40% of the time. Next, you determine the average amount won over the 60% (using a money management technique) and then adjust the average loss of 40% to bring up a positive expectation. You do this by adjusting the overall amount you are prepared to lose. Using a geometric money management technique, eg, dynamic fixed risk may be your best bet. Remember var(X), the market fluctuation, don't get stopped out due to market variance. Once you have a positive E(X), compound interest takes care of the rest. Good luck👍
Example,100/ 2.20 =45.45, 100/3 = 33.33 ,100/3.20=30.76. True odds 109.54 /45.45=2.41. Question When i calculate with your formula,i have 3 outcomes,and final number is 196.5.Is that value bet or no?
Think I commented before on your vid I am mainly doing tennis trading under 2.5 strategy is one that I like very easy to understand and implement I did it on Man U v Leeds on Mon 4th 1st one I've done for ages only stayed in market for a bit as was doing screenshot to show someone about trading
Hi Tim, if you ever plan on doing something other than tennis trading then the under 2.5 goals strategy is a good entry level football trading strategy
Great stuff, I’ve been looking at the over 0.5 goals in first half market and the stats seem to suggest that around 93% of 1st goals are scored at an average of 30mins with an average of around 7% of games with no goals. Do you think there is value in placing a standard bet across all games where odds at the start will be 1.5. I will look to backtest this.
Yes. A bookmaker has maybe a dozen traders and THOUSANDS of bets to set lines for. The reason the line changes from opening to close is because the lines are wrong. The bookmakers will change the lines based on who is betting what.
@@huckleberryfinn8795 you're partly right. yes they change them very slightly depending on what people bet on. but the reason they change a lot is because they've found new research. you will never ever be better than a bookmaker at setting the lines. NEVER
Hi Kie. The formula is fair enough, but is it not easier to just know all odds as percentages? When looking at the market I see the odds immediately as percentages. eg If Tottenham are 4/6, Brentford are 4/1 and the draw is 3/1 then I immediately see those odds as 4/6 = 60%, 4/1 = 20% and 3/1 = 25%. With 60 + 20 + 25 = 105% bookies working to 105% overround.... which doesn't at first glance look promising. if I've worked out the form and believe Tottenham have a 52% (fair 10/11) chance, Brentford 25% (fair 3/1) and the draw 23% (fair 100/30)... Then it is immediately obvious that imo Brentford are a good bet @ 4/1 and being 5% better than 3/1... For staking I could use the Kelly Critereon but I prefer my own staking method which tells me: 7.5% of my betting bank is wagered @ 4/1.
Great explanation! I'm looking to make sure I understand how to expand this to Double Chance betting - that is, calculated expected value of a Double Chance Bet (either Home and Draw or Away and Draw). I think I have it but was looking for some resource to make sure. Haven't really found it. Wondering if anyone here can address.
ArbAdviser has transformed my betting success! With its powerful features and accurate predictions, I'm making more money than ever before. It's like having a professional bettor guiding me towards profitable bets. Trust me, this software is a game-changer!
You can use historic data to calculate what the probability of events occurring is for the average situation, however for individual games historic models aren't sufficient enough, which is where you need to model in the two teams/players that are playing. This is no easy feat by any means and something I am working on all the time
Thank you Nicholas. I agree it is very important and something always worth thinking about, admittedly it can be difficult to go through the process of calculating the EV out in the heat of the moment when an opportunity arises
Hi Kie, you young man seem to be very thorough in what you do, I can see you will go a long way. I like you just have some fun with sports betting but we all like to win and have an edge, mostly I don't like losing money. You need to make some real money selling PUT and CALL options (you may already be doing this). Look out for the wheel strategy to point you in the right direction. Markus Heitkoetter on You Tube.
When you came to sheet, you just confused everyone who was trying to understand the concept.. like bro.. you pick the team and add 5% probability it will win and take other 2 options -5% so your EV jumps to green.. but I can take bookies odds as well and from 20% probability make 70% probabilty because I think there is the probability so my value jumps to positive EV again.. its just guessing like classic betting.. formula useless in this scenario.. you need to explain why you put 5% probability to one outcome and take 5% from other outcome.. otherwise it doesnt make any sense. When you said ,,you should know" it means ,,you guess the bet" so EV is not real concept. We Can go back to guessing and try to find best odds for what we think is going to win. Thats it.. only arbitrage is accurate working concept.. might be EV as well. But this is not explained very well.. sorry
That's exactly right I was hummingbird same thing he has not explained why he adds 5% to Brighton in this example, so he has a formula for pricing up matches but does not say what it is
@@JohnnyBarnes-th7zc after some time I found calculator for winning probability of 2 teams based on odds given by bookies.. when you have that probability, then you go to EV calculator and put odds and % it will tell you if your EV is positive or negative.. positive is only when bookies make mistake.. most of the time is negative and its set to aproximatelly -2.5% ROI.. thats long therm ROI for bookies from every bet made. So its little bit komplex to explain but easy to understand when you get it.. just video is not giving much information. I had to find out myself.. hope it helps you bro
You can use whatever probability you like for the draw. You can either convert the odds from betfair to a percentage, or if you have modelled the match you can use that probability too.
@@KieMillett Your very welcome Kie. I'm a full time trader been there since 2000 when befair was born. If you need any help in the future don't be afraid to ask and good luck with your trading career 👍
@@neilratcliffe6814 That's great Neil and thank you for the offer. I am still relatively novice in the trading world, hopefully I'll still be around in another 21 years 😂😂
Hi Melaku, The intention of this video was by no means to discourage football bettors through using mathematics. Winning football bets here and there is always possible. This video is for serious value bettors who need to calculate if bets are worth placing in the long run rather than individual bets.
Amazing video, really helps me understand how important positive EV is! One question at the moment, if I consistently place an in-play back bet 2 or more odds above the starting back odds for a favourite player/horse/team, will this result in positive EV and profit in the long run? Or does this frequently only really result in roughly breakeven profit, since the gains are minimal due to variance?
I talk about calculating if a bet is positive value in this video. Choosing the bets which are positive EV is the difficult skill which takes years to get good at
Very well explained and extremely well illustrated.
You have a future in this line.
Fascinating stuff Kie! I feel you’ve explained a pretty complex subject very well-given that it’s complicated! For me, given what you’ve said here, is about whether or not I’m prepared to sit and analyse data on games until the blood vessels in my eyes turn a deep shade of purple. But I can see how important it is not to go with ‘emotion’, i.e. that gut instinct that, say, L’Pool or Man C. will thrash most teams they play so go with them or, vice versa, the bottom of the table teams losing most of the time (which they probably will based on past performance) over the course of the 38 matches they play..
There’s clearly more science to trading than most of us can get our heads around but thank you for taking the time to help the less arithmetical of us to at least get a grip on why it’s important to stay calm, focused and then trade with logic and not emotion. Great video. Thank you. 👍
Thanks for the nice comment Tony!
Expectation of X is most important, but how do you start? Well, in stock market trading, for example, you would record the number of wins against the number of loses eg, I win 60% and lose 40% of the time. Next, you determine the average amount won over the 60% (using a money management technique) and then adjust the average loss of 40% to bring up a positive expectation. You do this by adjusting the overall amount you are prepared to lose. Using a geometric money management technique, eg, dynamic fixed risk may be your best bet. Remember var(X), the market fluctuation, don't get stopped out due to market variance. Once you have a positive E(X), compound interest takes care of the rest. Good luck👍
I'm just relieved that there are some smart kids out there, the future doesn't seem so bleak.
😂
Example,100/ 2.20 =45.45, 100/3 = 33.33 ,100/3.20=30.76.
True odds 109.54 /45.45=2.41.
Question
When i calculate with your formula,i have 3 outcomes,and final number is 196.5.Is that value bet or no?
Bro talking like a clone, ai or something 🤣🤣
Think I commented before on your vid I am mainly doing tennis trading under 2.5 strategy is one that I like very easy to understand and implement I did it on Man U v Leeds on Mon 4th 1st one I've done for ages only stayed in market for a bit as was doing screenshot to show someone about trading
Hi Tim, if you ever plan on doing something other than tennis trading then the under 2.5 goals strategy is a good entry level football trading strategy
Its so easy to make that spreadsheet,,who wants to buy from me?😂
How do you determine the true probability?
Great stuff, I’ve been looking at the over 0.5 goals in first half market and the stats seem to suggest that around 93% of 1st goals are scored at an average of 30mins with an average of around 7% of games with no goals. Do you think there is value in placing a standard bet across all games where odds at the start will be 1.5. I will look to backtest this.
you're basically saying that you think you know the percentages better than the bookmakers. might as well just guess
Yes. A bookmaker has maybe a dozen traders and THOUSANDS of bets to set lines for. The reason the line changes from opening to close is because the lines are wrong. The bookmakers will change the lines based on who is betting what.
@@huckleberryfinn8795 you're partly right. yes they change them very slightly depending on what people bet on. but the reason they change a lot is because they've found new research. you will never ever be better than a bookmaker at setting the lines. NEVER
Hi Kie. The formula is fair enough, but is it not easier to just know all odds as percentages? When looking at the market I see the odds immediately as percentages. eg If Tottenham are 4/6, Brentford are 4/1 and the draw is 3/1 then I immediately see those odds as 4/6 = 60%, 4/1 = 20% and 3/1 = 25%. With 60 + 20 + 25 = 105% bookies working to 105% overround.... which doesn't at first glance look promising. if I've worked out the form and believe Tottenham have a 52% (fair 10/11) chance, Brentford 25% (fair 3/1) and the draw 23% (fair 100/30)... Then it is immediately obvious that imo Brentford are a good bet @ 4/1 and being 5% better than 3/1... For staking I could use the Kelly Critereon but I prefer my own staking method which tells me:
7.5% of my betting bank is wagered @ 4/1.
Great explanation! I'm looking to make sure I understand how to expand this to Double Chance betting - that is, calculated expected value of a Double Chance Bet (either Home and Draw or Away and Draw). I think I have it but was looking for some resource to make sure. Haven't really found it. Wondering if anyone here can address.
ArbAdviser has transformed my betting success! With its powerful features and accurate predictions, I'm making more money than ever before. It's like having a professional bettor guiding me towards profitable bets. Trust me, this software is a game-changer!
But they never win more
Interesting that you have to wait until 903 for the to come right. You need patience in this game. Many people give up too soon.
great to use the expected value formula on this, but how do you calculate the probabilities of the outcomes is the real question in a sports bet.
You can use historic data to calculate what the probability of events occurring is for the average situation, however for individual games historic models aren't sufficient enough, which is where you need to model in the two teams/players that are playing. This is no easy feat by any means and something I am working on all the time
Variance. Pittsburgh Phil one of the best gamblers once said he had the worst run of loses on the horse fallowed by his best run ever. 😮
The eye staring 😐👀
I see multiple people in the comment section using the term trading instead of gambling. Whatever makes you feel better, my fellow trading junkie.
Please help with the spreadsheet
Holy shit 😮
the problem is now a days bookmakers are smart enough to play us out. the odds are pritty smart to disallow such things.
Good vid, and something very important to consider before placing a bet.
Thank you Nicholas. I agree it is very important and something always worth thinking about, admittedly it can be difficult to go through the process of calculating the EV out in the heat of the moment when an opportunity arises
After using this equation, Barcelona still cut my ticket 😅
😂
Hi Kie, you young man seem to be very thorough in what you do, I can see you will go a long way. I like you just have some fun with sports betting but we all like to win and have an edge, mostly I don't like losing money. You need to make some real money selling PUT and CALL options (you may already be doing this). Look out for the wheel strategy to point you in the right direction. Markus Heitkoetter on You Tube.
Parlay or Straight Betting or Money line ?!
I just came across this video is this value betting?
I love winning method and your correct score trick, please can l get the software on my phone
top stuff! amazing explanation
can we have/buy a copy of that excel calculator?
Is there anyway to find value bet when you are laying?
Do you have EV (coin tossing experiment) excel to share with us?
What a fantastic video, you have earned a subscriber :)
Thank you for the kind comment, I'm glad you enjoyed
How does your table turn color
Conditional formatting
Now i have gone for a subscriber to a patron member :)
When you came to sheet, you just confused everyone who was trying to understand the concept.. like bro.. you pick the team and add 5% probability it will win and take other 2 options -5% so your EV jumps to green.. but I can take bookies odds as well and from 20% probability make 70% probabilty because I think there is the probability so my value jumps to positive EV again.. its just guessing like classic betting.. formula useless in this scenario.. you need to explain why you put 5% probability to one outcome and take 5% from other outcome.. otherwise it doesnt make any sense. When you said ,,you should know" it means ,,you guess the bet" so EV is not real concept. We Can go back to guessing and try to find best odds for what we think is going to win. Thats it.. only arbitrage is accurate working concept.. might be EV as well. But this is not explained very well.. sorry
That's exactly right I was hummingbird same thing he has not explained why he adds 5% to Brighton in this example, so he has a formula for pricing up matches but does not say what it is
@@JohnnyBarnes-th7zc after some time I found calculator for winning probability of 2 teams based on odds given by bookies.. when you have that probability, then you go to EV calculator and put odds and % it will tell you if your EV is positive or negative.. positive is only when bookies make mistake.. most of the time is negative and its set to aproximatelly -2.5% ROI.. thats long therm ROI for bookies from every bet made. So its little bit komplex to explain but easy to understand when you get it.. just video is not giving much information. I had to find out myself.. hope it helps you bro
Great job !!!!!! Super. Someone finally made this video
Many thanks for the support Jefferson!
So, great video Kie, ty. Do we have to pay you in order to download the expected value excel sheet? Tia
If you want to quickly download it yes, but if you don't want to pay you can always follow along with the tutorial from this video.
So where there are 3 outcomes like soccer.. Which probability do you use for the draw part
You can use whatever probability you like for the draw. You can either convert the odds from betfair to a percentage, or if you have modelled the match you can use that probability too.
gracias
Thank you sir
Fantastic video.
Thank you Michael!
Top vid mate very well explained 😎
Thanks Neil!
@@KieMillett Your very welcome Kie. I'm a full time trader been there since 2000 when befair was born. If you need any help in the future don't be afraid to ask and good luck with your trading career 👍
@@neilratcliffe6814 That's great Neil and thank you for the offer. I am still relatively novice in the trading world, hopefully I'll still be around in another 21 years 😂😂
in football there can be 3 results,....
Agreed, and any of those outcomes can potentially be a positive expected value bet.
@@KieMillett how ?? Please help,. It's 1 ÷ 3 how can there be a positive ev
Brilliant video, thank you. Don't bother with the background music, it distracts from what you're saying
Noted!
Nice video
I'm currently betting on draws and would love your view on this type of. Betting
Hi Jono, I have never pursued a strategy which aims to back draws. How has it been going for you?
Can you help
Yes come see me on twitter
after watching this video i feel like i will never win football bet ever... the probability and some shit he said
Hi Melaku,
The intention of this video was by no means to discourage football bettors through using mathematics. Winning football bets here and there is always possible. This video is for serious value bettors who need to calculate if bets are worth placing in the long run rather than individual bets.
Why do I care if bets are worth placing in the long run when I just want to bet on it for this day?
Monday304, because presumably you want to win money not give it away
Amazing video, really helps me understand how important positive EV is! One question at the moment, if I consistently place an in-play back bet 2 or more odds above the starting back odds for a favourite player/horse/team, will this result in positive EV and profit in the long run? Or does this frequently only really result in roughly breakeven profit, since the gains are minimal due to variance?
how to find positive value Paulo rebelo, the famous football trader, always talked about this, a bet with a positive value
I talk about calculating if a bet is positive value in this video. Choosing the bets which are positive EV is the difficult skill which takes years to get good at