Thank you for your content. IMO The projection of what the actual average Halifax house price will be in ,say, 2030 ,and then 2040,( despite being hard to look at in terms of affordability ) is not the real issue. Like you say, it has always kind of been this way in HRM. Even during stages of N.S.'s DEPOPULATION during 2000s /teens there were modest annual price gains that resulted in substantial cost increases when looked at in one decade chunks. What IS changing is the whole narrative that house price increases will somehow slow down enough or level out while the wages/ industry salary standards of the general populace will "catch up" with the cost of everything. Sadly not happening. Equilibrium has been lost. This disproportionate gap between peoples wages and actual costs is what is opening wider and wider past the" breaking point". Unless there are real turnarounds in terms of attracting productive industry to the province we will only see further societal problems that have just started to spiral , mostly due to an exaggeratedly house-centric economy. The government cupboards are bare, and we are caught up in a vicious cycle. As you know , once you pass a certain price point there is no necessary correlation between it and quality of a city's life, no matter the worth on paper. As a Haligonian raised here in 70s and 80s but lived in big cities in Asia throughout my life unfortunately I feel the sufferfest is just beginning. I hope for the best , but expect the worst unless there some truly innovative interventions. Thanks again for the channel!
Interesting video! Thanks for putting this together. I am not local but pay close attention to what is going on in HRM. I'd also add that 1) Halifax has a lot of governmental support (such as universities, hospitals, navy, etc.). 2) There is not a subway or highway into the peninsula. 3) As one of your videos mentioned, there was just an approval of the upzoning by-laws. These factors tend to support prices. From an owner's perspective, you would want real estate to appreciate "quietly" at 5% per year. Nothing wrong with that as the big gains are what will result in often unwated/unnecessary governmental changes.
At what point does the housing and rent prices and overall cost of living force people to look to live elsewhere. While Nova Scotia and even HRM still have relatively affordable housing compared to the rest of Canada, wages are lagging far behind and I dont feel that wages have been increasing nearly at the same rate. On top of that I am pretty sure the cost of living here went up way above official inflation numbers. Plus some of the highest taxes. At the moment the only thing that still keep people here is the rent cap. Without that in place I would likely have to leave because I cant pay $800+ per month more for rent. And neither do I want to search for a downgrade just so my increase is $400.
It's not until ppl move to Halifax to live the dream, they then realized the employment situation, VERY high taxes and high cost of living. Canada is approx 80% real estate and government. There's your answer!!
did prices drop during the 2008-2009 Great Financial crisis? We’re about to go through something much, much worse as the credit bubble pops. Fed to start cutting interest rates>>>>>>recession.😮
I figured data would suggest so as the GFC was a largely a US real estate phenomenon while Canada’s banks were praised for their practices. The credit problem isn’t US centric now……it’s global. Too many cracks and too wide spread to manage while BRICS makes the move to gold and resource backed trading. watch. 😎
Still waiting for Andrew to do a video on price drops :P Real estate doesn't go to the moon and keep going. What goes up this high and this fast, WILL correct!!!
@@AR-pr6mt we’ll see and if it happens I’ll certainly do a video about it haha. 44 years with one slight drop year over year along the way is pretty reassuring
One of the biggest catalyst for the recent dramatic price increases in the HRM is definitely the supply and demand. As Andrew mentioned at the moment there is a rather large discrepancy between housing supply and demand which is being fuelled by the population growth. Hard to envision a scenario where prices decrease when this is the case. Also, this new reality has created a lot more new investors, who may be willing to pay a premium for properties that offer the potential for rental income which is currently also higher due to demand, with the added benefit of future capital appreciation (5% year over year). Just my opinion of course.
All great points! I have a hard time seeing the 5% year over year growth over the next ten years... But I have a much harder time envisioning prices decreasing anytime soon. Realistically, I wouldn't be surprised to see more like 2.5-3% year over year average for the next 10 years as wages (maybe) begin to catch up to the cost of living (maybe wishful thinking). But... Even at 2.5% yearly growth compounded over ten years, it would put us around 656k in 5 years and 742k in 10 years. Which are also big numbers.. Time will tell!
Investors that can't make cash flow + will have too sell, or hold cash flow negative properties. Will investors keep cash flow negative properties? Any investor who thought buying a rental condo in 2021 at 1.25% was a good idea(boc said low rates for longer which didn't happen). Those investors on renewal could be facing 6% mortgages on refinancing. If investors know they will be cash flow negative at refi time, will they keep their investments?
@@AR-pr6mta lot of investors would’ve already had their mortgages renew at the peak rates. Anyone who bought in 2021 or 2022 will likely be renewing in 2025/2026 at rates that are around the mid to high 3’s, not 5 or 5.5%. So I don’t think it will be as bad as people think. We may see some unloading. But it won’t be an epic collapse by any means. If that was going to happen I believe we would’ve seen it already since people have been renewing at rates around 5% or higher for some time now. People will likely restructure and push out amortization before unloading (whether or not that’s in their best interest is a different conversation). But in general, yes, we’ll see some listings due to that fact and also some foreclosures.
@@AndrewStephens Interesting you feel BOC will cut that many times (or aggressively cut) in 2025/26 to get rates to 3's. variable vs fixed, not sure how different each rate would look!
@@AR-pr6mt based on the projections I’ve seen from several sources I think we’ll see one or two more this year (like 25 basis points each time) and then likely 3-4 next year but who really knows at this point. Most economists seem to be thinking aggressively now based on what I’ve seen but at the same time these are the same people that said Covid would crash the market and we all know how that went 😂 My thought about this year at the start of the year was 50 basis points lower by the end of the year. But I could see it being 75 points too.
Personally I think that we've got a massive shock of sea levels rising and many residences near water inundated with water. So, my feeling is that as houses get destroyed the ones that are higher up will become even more valuable. We moved to the province in 2023 and bought on a hill in Lucasville. I did not want to be anywhere near water. I really hope that peoples houses aren't destroyed but the rate at which glaciers are melting it's not going to take long for a few inches rise in sea levels to cause massive damage along the entire Eastern North American coastline and elsewhere, obviously.
Thanks for great insights and data. I don't think I've ever seen the analysis you did but I agree, seems insane pricing. The growth of HRM and Nova Scotia alone is significantly outpacing home building and apartments for that matter. We bought our home in Dartmouth in 2018 for around $220. If I put it on the market today it would pretty easily go for $400K I'd think or more. Sounds like I'll be a millionaire in no time unless something breaks. lol
Haha it will be a nice nest egg for you. Interesting when you break it down and go as far back as I did in this video eh? Not something that gets talked about a whole lot
@@jaredvaughan1665 It's an artificial way for goverment to boost the economy. Lure in people from other countries for a better life in Canada. With that they bring with them their life savings plus all their chips they cashed in when they packed up their lives that side (selling their homes, cars, cashing out retirement savings etc). They now arrive in Halifax (or elsewhere in Canada) with that cash and are guaranteed to spend a big junk of that just to resettle here - buy a home or pay rent, buy a car, furnish their new home, get insurance, get a phone contract, internet etc. No matter the crazy prices those are al necessities to settle in. It will only be after a year or two efore you realise it's crap expensive, you don't get paid that well because of not having Canadian experience and your qualifications aren't fully recognized. But you've already made the moved and settled and spent all that money. Can't move again. It's a bit of a trap but beneficial in the short term for government as long as you have a continuous stream of newcomers. Your gonna have big issues in the long term though if you don't keep your infrastructure up with the population growth and that's what we see now happening in Halifax. I would also argue that the real homeless number is a lot higher than the 1,300 odd that they mention. Lots of people that don't find housing are crashing with friends or families living together. Or house sharing. They do this because they can't find housing of their own. So they are technically homeless as they often have no contract in place and can lose that housing at any time. Others are one eviction away from being homeless.
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Are we about to hit the breaking point? 🤷🏻♂
Thank you for your content.
IMO The projection of what the actual average Halifax house price will be in ,say, 2030 ,and then 2040,( despite being hard to look at in terms of affordability ) is not the real issue. Like you say, it has always kind of been this way in HRM. Even during stages of N.S.'s DEPOPULATION during 2000s /teens there were modest annual price gains that resulted in substantial cost increases when looked at in one decade chunks.
What IS changing is the whole narrative that house price increases will somehow slow down enough or level out while the wages/ industry salary standards of the general populace will "catch up" with the cost of everything. Sadly not happening. Equilibrium has been lost.
This disproportionate gap between peoples wages and actual costs is what is opening wider and wider past the" breaking point". Unless there are real turnarounds in terms of attracting productive industry to the province we will only see further societal problems that have just started to spiral , mostly due to an exaggeratedly house-centric economy. The government cupboards are bare, and we are caught up in a vicious cycle.
As you know , once you pass a certain price point there is no necessary correlation between it and quality of a city's life, no matter the worth on paper.
As a Haligonian raised here in 70s and 80s but lived in big cities in Asia throughout my life unfortunately I feel the sufferfest is just beginning.
I hope for the best , but expect the worst unless there some truly innovative interventions.
Thanks again for the channel!
Thanks for watching! All good points and it will be interesting to see how the next 5-10 years go for sure
Interesting video! Thanks for putting this together. I am not local but pay close attention to what is going on in HRM. I'd also add that 1) Halifax has a lot of governmental support (such as universities, hospitals, navy, etc.). 2) There is not a subway or highway into the peninsula. 3) As one of your videos mentioned, there was just an approval of the upzoning by-laws. These factors tend to support prices. From an owner's perspective, you would want real estate to appreciate "quietly" at 5% per year. Nothing wrong with that as the big gains are what will result in often unwated/unnecessary governmental changes.
All great points. Thanks for watching! I would prefer “steady/normal” increases compared to 2020, 2021 and 2022.
At what point does the housing and rent prices and overall cost of living force people to look to live elsewhere. While Nova Scotia and even HRM still have relatively affordable housing compared to the rest of Canada, wages are lagging far behind and I dont feel that wages have been increasing nearly at the same rate. On top of that I am pretty sure the cost of living here went up way above official inflation numbers. Plus some of the highest taxes.
At the moment the only thing that still keep people here is the rent cap. Without that in place I would likely have to leave because I cant pay $800+ per month more for rent. And neither do I want to search for a downgrade just so my increase is $400.
It's not until ppl move to Halifax to live the dream, they then realized the employment situation, VERY high taxes and high cost of living. Canada is approx 80% real estate and government. There's your answer!!
did prices drop during the 2008-2009 Great Financial crisis? We’re about to go through something much, much worse as the credit bubble pops. Fed to start cutting interest rates>>>>>>recession.😮
Prices went up 2.8% in HRM between 2008-2009! They’ve only dropped one time since 1980 (1994-1995)
I figured data would suggest so as the GFC was a largely a US real estate phenomenon while Canada’s banks were praised for their practices. The credit problem isn’t US centric now……it’s global. Too many cracks and too wide spread to manage while BRICS makes the move to gold and resource backed trading. watch. 😎
Still waiting for Andrew to do a video on price drops :P Real estate doesn't go to the moon and keep going. What goes up this high and this fast, WILL correct!!!
@@AR-pr6mt we’ll see and if it happens I’ll certainly do a video about it haha. 44 years with one slight drop year over year along the way is pretty reassuring
@@AndrewStephens Wouldn't you say this is a "much" different real estate market?
One of the biggest catalyst for the recent dramatic price increases in the HRM is definitely the supply and demand. As Andrew mentioned at the moment there is a rather large discrepancy between housing supply and demand which is being fuelled by the population growth. Hard to envision a scenario where prices decrease when this is the case. Also, this new reality has created a lot more new investors, who may be willing to pay a premium for properties that offer the potential for rental income which is currently also higher due to demand, with the added benefit of future capital appreciation (5% year over year). Just my opinion of course.
All great points! I have a hard time seeing the 5% year over year growth over the next ten years... But I have a much harder time envisioning prices decreasing anytime soon. Realistically, I wouldn't be surprised to see more like 2.5-3% year over year average for the next 10 years as wages (maybe) begin to catch up to the cost of living (maybe wishful thinking). But... Even at 2.5% yearly growth compounded over ten years, it would put us around 656k in 5 years and 742k in 10 years. Which are also big numbers.. Time will tell!
Investors that can't make cash flow + will have too sell, or hold cash flow negative properties. Will investors keep cash flow negative properties? Any investor who thought buying a rental condo in 2021 at 1.25% was a good idea(boc said low rates for longer which didn't happen). Those investors on renewal could be facing 6% mortgages on refinancing. If investors know they will be cash flow negative at refi time, will they keep their investments?
@@AR-pr6mta lot of investors would’ve already had their mortgages renew at the peak rates. Anyone who bought in 2021 or 2022 will likely be renewing in 2025/2026 at rates that are around the mid to high 3’s, not 5 or 5.5%. So I don’t think it will be as bad as people think. We may see some unloading. But it won’t be an epic collapse by any means. If that was going to happen I believe we would’ve seen it already since people have been renewing at rates around 5% or higher for some time now.
People will likely restructure and push out amortization before unloading (whether or not that’s in their best interest is a different conversation).
But in general, yes, we’ll see some listings due to that fact and also some foreclosures.
@@AndrewStephens Interesting you feel BOC will cut that many times (or aggressively cut) in 2025/26 to get rates to 3's. variable vs fixed, not sure how different each rate would look!
@@AR-pr6mt based on the projections I’ve seen from several sources I think we’ll see one or two more this year (like 25 basis points each time) and then likely 3-4 next year but who really knows at this point. Most economists seem to be thinking aggressively now based on what I’ve seen but at the same time these are the same people that said Covid would crash the market and we all know how that went 😂
My thought about this year at the start of the year was 50 basis points lower by the end of the year. But I could see it being 75 points too.
Love your videos lately! And you sure make a fella want to do everything I can to buy my next property!!
Thanks for watching!
Personally I think that we've got a massive shock of sea levels rising and many residences near water inundated with water. So, my feeling is that as houses get destroyed the ones that are higher up will become even more valuable. We moved to the province in 2023 and bought on a hill in Lucasville. I did not want to be anywhere near water. I really hope that peoples houses aren't destroyed but the rate at which glaciers are melting it's not going to take long for a few inches rise in sea levels to cause massive damage along the entire Eastern North American coastline and elsewhere, obviously.
wrong
Thanks for great insights and data. I don't think I've ever seen the analysis you did but I agree, seems insane pricing. The growth of HRM and Nova Scotia alone is significantly outpacing home building and apartments for that matter.
We bought our home in Dartmouth in 2018 for around $220. If I put it on the market today it would pretty easily go for $400K I'd think or more. Sounds like I'll be a millionaire in no time unless something breaks. lol
Haha it will be a nice nest egg for you. Interesting when you break it down and go as far back as I did in this video eh? Not something that gets talked about a whole lot
@@AndrewStephens Yep exactly! I hope to live there for a long long time but if I ever did need to sell, it will be a nice payday!
@@DiscipleSteven doesn’t hurt just knowing that the equity is there for a rainy day! 🤑
Great content, thanks.
Thanks!
High immigration is killing the Canadian dream
@@jaredvaughan1665 It's an artificial way for goverment to boost the economy. Lure in people from other countries for a better life in Canada. With that they bring with them their life savings plus all their chips they cashed in when they packed up their lives that side (selling their homes, cars, cashing out retirement savings etc). They now arrive in Halifax (or elsewhere in Canada) with that cash and are guaranteed to spend a big junk of that just to resettle here - buy a home or pay rent, buy a car, furnish their new home, get insurance, get a phone contract, internet etc. No matter the crazy prices those are al necessities to settle in. It will only be after a year or two efore you realise it's crap expensive, you don't get paid that well because of not having Canadian experience and your qualifications aren't fully recognized. But you've already made the moved and settled and spent all that money. Can't move again. It's a bit of a trap but beneficial in the short term for government as long as you have a continuous stream of newcomers. Your gonna have big issues in the long term though if you don't keep your infrastructure up with the population growth and that's what we see now happening in Halifax.
I would also argue that the real homeless number is a lot higher than the 1,300 odd that they mention. Lots of people that don't find housing are crashing with friends or families living together. Or house sharing. They do this because they can't find housing of their own. So they are technically homeless as they often have no contract in place and can lose that housing at any time. Others are one eviction away from being homeless.
Great content, thanks.
Thanks for watching!