BIG Changes in the Catamaran Market. We talk to the President(s)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 26 ส.ค. 2024
- Some catamaran boat prices are rising, and some are falling. There is a lot of uncertainty in the financial market right now. This week, we try to get a little perspective by looking at the fundamentals. Then we chat with the president of Balance Catamarans, Phil Berman, and the president of HH Catamarans, Seth Hynes, to get some insight into how inflation is affecting new boat prices.
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The O'Kelly Journalism chops on full display here. Impressive reporting, and great job of making dry figures and ratios interesting.
Appreciate that. Thank you
@@TheOKellys Thanks. You answered question that I had not even thought about. GREAT JOB !
Some holes though. Comparing income vs net worth is strongly distorted by billionaires, who have whatever income they want ($0 for taxes) and vast quantities of wealth. This should leave us wondering whether the US is really that resilient vs. downturns. Perhaps the yacht buyer is different though.
Here is an anecdote you might think over. It is an observation of boating on the water, not catamaran pricing (used or new), but it might have downstream effects. It is also a regional observation, i.e., the Pacific Northwest.
For the first year since Covid hit, Americans were welcomed back into British Columbia this past summer. We and others returned to coastal B.C., specifically Desolation Sound, as we had for many years. We were (pleasantly) surprised that there weren't very many boats out there. Why? Over many conversations, we observed two reasons were repeatedly noted by folks who WERE up there. One: the reality of owning a boat has hit. Many people bought boats in reaction to Covid. What could be safer than boating? It offered automatic social distancing, right? Many of those buyers were inexperienced, and bought the most boat they could afford - in many cases more boat than they could afford. The first year wasn't bad. They were just getting into boating. But after two years, it became apparent that their boat had to go into the yard for maintenance. STICKER SHOCK! Who could have imagined that you might have to put in 10%, maybe even 20%, of your puchase price to maintain and modestly upgrade your boat? The answer of course is "Any Experienced Boater Could Have Foreseen and Planned for That". We have been doing this for over 40 years. Our annual budget (expectation) is that we will spend 10% of present value of the boat maintaining it. This year the bills were closer to 20%, but we added some new equipment. The second factor was the cost of operating the boat. STICKER SHOCK AGAIN! Diesel fuel in B.C. was $9/gallon this summer (not a misprint). People who bought big power boats especially gagged on $5,000 and more to fill the tanks. Their response was to reduce their cruising and run slower. A friend of ours took his 49' Riviera to SE Alaska last summer. His budget for fuel was $30,000. He exceeded it even though he cut his speed back. I predict the next reaction is going to "Well, Covid is whipped, we can get back to our normal lives. Let's sell the damn boat." That is just beginning to hit the used boat market here in the PacNW. It will explode next spring. It will hit sailboats as well as powerboats as the newbies bail out. I have several good friends who are yacht brokers. They all tell me they have gone from having too many buyers and no boats to having a lot of boats but no buyers. The price of financing a boat purchase is already killing the used boat market. It isn't going to do anything good for the new boat market. That's the news from the PacNW on this topic.
Thanks Hector. Really no substitute for boots-on-the-ground info. There has always been and always will be a percentage of folks who simply wash out after the first couple years. We try and keep it real on our channel, but we do know that a lot of people have been wowed by the TH-cam’s and said hey honey that looks fun…then later said…yeh too much headache! Where we are on that curve, I don’t know. As Phil and Seth will tell you, their customers are typically on their second or third or fourth boat by the time they place an order…so these are people who know what they are getting into. We know from our viewers and clients that all of the well known builders have seen buyers opt out of their build slots…but with demand still so high…will this hurt builders? I don’t know. On the lower end of the market, I suspect there will be softening….for the reasons you bring up, but also simply the wealth effect of real estate if prices continue to fall. How much softening? Really, no clue there. Anyway, thank you for the feedback and info.
This is very generous information, especially for me, a soon to be new boat owner for the first time. I am that exact person. Bought a boat that I can barley afford, inexperienced, first time boat owner. I am in Los Angeles so I have a wide range of places to go without breaking the bank on fuel, but the wife and I are going to retire in two years and the Marina is 3 miles from my home. Worse comes to worse, we will rent our condo and live between our boat and our family’s vacation home in the central coast. The good news for me is I have a good public safety pension, access to a great boat mechanic who can walk me through and help me prevent mechanical issues, a place to dock the boat at least part time without having to pay, and a 457 that can cover the price of the boat if it all falls apart. I also got a 4.5 percent interest rate which right now is really good. The boat (2023 Bavaria SR41) will arrive from Germany in January. I hope we aren’t making a big mistake. We could if I wanted to, back out, but we really want to boat our way into retirement. Thank you again for the experienced outlook. Would love to take her up to the San Juan’s one of these days. One of the most beautiful regions of our country❤
@@jps3b It looks like have done your research and prep. I hope my comment won't cause you or others to have second thoughts. Nothing in our lives has been more enjoyable than our boating experiences, and we encourage anyone who asks to dive in. Just the depth first so the experience doesn't become a disaster. Your best initial exposure to the boating area between Puget Sound and SE Alaska might be a two or three-week charter. Then you can determine if it is worth bringing your new boat up the coast.
Ok
@@hectorcyre7664 appreciate the advice Sir ❤️
Fantastic video. No guessing, no speculation, just data, analysis, economics and science. As a relative noob who is just beginning to charter and looking to buy in the not-too-distant future this research you've put together is extremely helpful. Thanks so much for your insight and for tapping into the perspective of 2 world-class builders. I have to admit that I've been watching your videos for a while and have yet to sign on as a Patreon contributor, I will be rectifying that situation today!
Thank you. Appreciate the support.
This is information that you generally cannot pay for. My hats off to the O'Kelly's for more of what they do so well. Clear thinking. Helpful perspectives, and solid as it is information. Thank You to both of you.
This is quickly becoming one of my favourite channels! Love this kind of info, the info around buying your boat and the other offers you made, and the one where you dissect why you were able to get offers accepted at 20% under asking. Keep them coming! I agree that housing prices going down, and interest rates going up will likely serve to weaken demand, reducing prices. I'll likely be buying in about 12 months, and am glad I have that time to learn, research and hopefully watch prices continue to creep downwards.
1/2 way through this video and just have to say WOW! Terrific, timely, and thoroughly researched. Thank you, Nick!
Appreciate that. Thank you
3m in and this is one of the better economic reviews I have seen in media.
Well produced!
I'm not shopping for a boat, but my experience as a renter in Australia is the market says house prices are dropping but my rent keeps rising as the interest rates go up, that's in-your-face fraud right there! Love your vids guys!
As a homeowner in Sydney... if I was to rent my house out I'd get a rental income around 1.5% or less return (which is taxable) in my suburb and a land tax bill around $16k per year to the NSW government. So why would I bother... cheaper to leave my house vacant and pay the loan on the boat. Blame the government not the landlord.
Also house prices in Western Australia are falling, my in laws sold on what felt like the last gasp of the hot market about 6 months ago and it took them way longer to sell than they anticipated because the turn was starting, we watch the market because that’s just what we do and the suburbs we watching are definitely slowing
I have no investment properties in Sydney (yes the real estate person looked at us weird when we said we wanted to live in the house). However everything goes up and you dont rent a house to go broke.
Incredible information as we have come to expect from you guys🎉 Great to see Seth working, I miss seeing him, his wife and 3 boys sailing around the world, look forward to his return one day!
Don't worry, we will be back (on an HH) someday! :)
@@TheSailingFamily Seth, it is a joy to see that companies have a CEO that knows the product because he has lived it. Congratulations to H&H board for a wise decision. ❤
@@CreekRanger That Creek - as you can tell, I am enjoying it!
You are my favorite adventure couple. The synergy of your different skills and personalities is fabulous. You two should do some adventure travel on land videos while the boat market cools.
Coming your way soon!
I'd love to see you do a video on what influence social media is having on more folks leaning toward boat purchases vs real estate. If youtube had been a thing when I was younger I have no doubt I'd have been living aboard for the last 40-plus years. I see a large influence on how people are more willing to take a chance to live a dream while still young and healthy enough to truly enjoy it. Not just in larger purchases but also in doing more toward living a life full of experiences vs just existing in the day-to-day ruts we tend to fall into unless something comes along to get our attention.
As a future boat owner (4 years to go) I've been very interested in the catamaran market and this video hit on a lot of areas of concern for me. Thanks for the effort!
Very cool insight, love this video! Thank you, we got a tour of an HH from Seth too and very impressed with his honesty and build. We haven’t had that interaction with Balance, but have had a killer interaction with there sales team.
Everything is based on supply, and demand currently there currently is low supply and still fairly high demand. You currently see the same scenario in the automotive market as you see in the real estate market. Like high tide raises all ships it’s very much the same in all sectors of the market. The tide is likely to change within the next two years some areas will obviously have a larger drop and some areas may have a minimal drop, it’s all going to be based on supply and demand. I definitely enjoyed your video as I do with all of your videos and this video has a lot of great information.
Thank you. Yes, in a free market supply-demand always finds price. Both sides of that equation are in flux right now. Will be interesting to see what happens
Nick, I have been in the boat business on and off for many years...since the 80's. What I have seen is that the price of new boats has a direct influence on the price of used boats. Think of it as an "either/or" decision. A buyer will look at the cost of new vs used and the greater the difference, the bigger the incentive to buy used. They are tied together and always have been. The cost of money will have the same impact on houses, boats and any other large consumer purchases.
I think you are right. Both sides of the supply-demand equation are experiencing turbulence right now. Buyers are dropping new build contracts right now. Just a few, and there are backup orders in place, so no price pressure now. Will be interesting to see how this evolves.
High Rates Affect High Loan Amounts the Most
As you move to higher purchase prices, the sheer dollar amount that is shaved off your purchase price by rising rates is pretty incredible.
You could buy a $420,000 home at 5.0% if your budget were $1,800 per month. But at 6.0%, your purchase price is $375,000, a reduction of $45,000.
At a $2,000 per month payment, your maximum purchase price is cut by over $50,000 by a 1% increase in rates.
These are big numbers and could affect your ability to get into the home you wanted, or into a home at all in higher-priced areas.
@@TheOKellys we are in line on a 1370 and have asked our broker to find someone to replace us. It hasn’t happened yet and we still retain our place in line and they’ve also been delays, so for now we are still in-line with our deposit. We are on the fence I’m going back-and-forth every other day I know if we should buy the boat or if we should not buy the boat. This is due mostly to the costs we’ve learned about since laying down the cash. You really have to live on it and make it worthwhile and at this point it looks like this boat would only add years to my working life and delay my retirement. For now, we continue to charter 1-2 weeks per quarter in different seas and on different boats trying to educate ourselves on what do and don’t like, etc.. it would be helpful if we could actually step foot onto a 1370. We think it looks like it will be a great boat, but of course how could you possibly know at this stage.
@@TQRosen who is your broker? I understand some Seawind dealers have been willing to reassign and others have not. Feel free to contact us privately. The 1370 is a big unknown….could be a fabulous boat, or not meet expectations. I hope for all involved that it is a fabulous boat that exceeds expectations. We personally could never buy a boat without not only setting foot on it, but sailing it in varied conditions. Heck, we couldn’t even review a boat without sailing it.
No clickbait, no bullshit, just plain interesting and serious conversation, data and information. We like that.
Um wow? Seth Hynes went from The Sailing Family just about nine months ago (last episode) and now he's the President of HH Catamarans? Holy smokes. Anyways, really good episode Nick & Meghan. I absolutely love when researchers show their data and cite their sources. Absolutely perfect. 👊🤘💯
I was building homes from the late 80's through just a few years ago. I've seen inflation all over the place throughout my construction career. The best time I've seen to build is when the interest rates went up. Now I didn't see this world wide weirdness we've had the last 3 years BUT typically if the interest rate went up the lumber prices dropped. When this happens you actually get more house for the money spent. Some of those swings in value to interest rates were huge throughout those years. Again this is homes in a "normal" society and supply chain.
I actually wrote that before the end of your video where you show the price of lumber and other things drop... lol
Good analysis in general but from an analyst perspective (me) there is one key thing you probably should look at to get a better pulse - the high net worth crowd who is buying $500k+. The numbers you showed include 50% of US citizens who make less than 50k/year and homes that reflect that population. The subgroup you are looking at are people whose net worth is $1mil+ or about the top 20%. Look at housing markets in Scottsdale, Palm Springs, Tampa, and other high-end 2nd home communities. The housing prices are barely coming down from the pandemic high and in many cases, still rising. Recessions, market downturns have some, but not a whole lot of effect on the purchasing patterns of this group. They have their money and can spend it. You can deduct the interest on any loan on it as it is considered a loan. It is reasonable to think that prices have around a 5-7% Upwards buffer that can be still written off (against continual income). With that in mind, as long as there are loans to be had, the demand should remain about the same or down a little. The kicker is that with interest rates rising, it could be reasonable to think many will choose not to buy a new boat or not to sell because loans are locked in. Another caveat of that if many loans are on ARMs then owners will want to off load them as they come off the ARM. If a money crunch happens like 2008, then you will see big drops - but it is very doubtful that will happen. The hurricanes probably also knocked out enough boats to drop supply and created additional demand for those who are looking to replace their damaged boat. The jump in materials for new boats will probably lead to fewer being made for a couple of years also limiting supply now and in the future. My thought - prices may drop about the same as interest rates rise and then hold steady and increase equal of interest rates over the next few years.
A really informative video. I have personally met and discussed Phil's and Seth's design philosophy and I would say you spoke with two key people in the catamaran production industry. Great work on the financial analysis part, was impressed to see Canada up there and mentioned.
How am I enthralled with a cat purchase topic when I will never sail the high seas (severe sea sickness, can’t even afford a dinghy)? Well done Nick! I look forward to ALL your future work. If you go new, I vote for a Balance over an HH [minor design issues].
Very good analysis and presentation of this complex market and difficult times.
Great information and you’ve given us food for thought to ask our ( likely) builder some serious questions about the contract
This is such a niche perspective on a global event, love it!
Hi Guys, nice change of gears whilst being boatless and keeping entirely relevant to industry. Very well done. Kind regards Gavin
Thank you
While I might nitpick how Nick interprets the data (mostly because using 'averages of averages' means the wealth gap found in some/many/most countries gets ignored...but that isn't a conversation suitable for TH-cam comments...) I think this is the best and most cogent presentation on the present situation I've seen. I genuinely appreciate the caveats and disclaimers Nick used about the data and the very clear differentiation between data and opinion that is presented. That's something many other Folks With Opinions forget to do...so, well done, sir. Well done, indeed.
We are still 3-5 years out from a decision as to whether we do a catamaran or a 5th wheel RV for our retirement. This was really helpful. We shall continue to watch and react to what is happening and make our decisions when the time is right.
I hope Team O'Kelly finds their next boat soon and continues their adventures!
Thanks for the feedback Martin. A complicated subject for sure. Very difficult to distill.
Tory Channel looks amazing. One of my favorite bits of water after a crossing of Cook Straight.
One of the best shows on this topic anywhere. I have been following the RubyRose2 build at Seawind in VN and the various interviews with The Wynns and their HH44 cs, which I think is being made in the Philippines. The downturn has not even started yet. All we have had is the prelude to the mess coming. Have some cash and be flexible. Happy Trails
Hi All, In Amsterdam the price trend has split, where ready to go appartments are still high in price and normal homes that need something are 6-10% down. I think all the good recent boats will stay high and the rest, like the charter cats, will take a big correction
You are driving through Manaia in Coromandel, New Zealand, at 3:25! That place (and the Coromandel in general) is amazing!
yes, a very solid point...that your builder be on strong financial footing and the owners have a good reputation.
You guys ALWAYS delivering the knowledge and wisdom. Well done and thank you for delivering honesty with big hearts👍🏽🤩
So very informative. I love you guys. We are setting out on our first large adventure to the Bahamas on our 31 foot Island Packet. Thanks for all you do to keep us informed.
We are so excited for you guys. And a little jealous. Heaven awaits. Have a great time!
Having been in the boat building industry, the one significant truth I heard from those builders was that the margins are VERY small. That is particularly true for smaller builders where one problem can turn a fixed price build from profit to loss. It is a rare build where there is only one problem. Personally, the current economic situation would definitely push me into the used market simply because I would not want to live with a potential 10-20% price increase over the course of a new build contract (with an inflation clause). On top of that, there is the current certainty that the cost of borrowing is going up for at least the next year or two. So if someone is financing a new build, not only could the actual price of the boat go up, but the cost of the money could rise significantly. Overall that could mean a 30-40% rise in the true cost of a new build. That is a huge risk to take. That said, I view a boat as a toy and firmly believe that the only way to buy a toy is with cash. Even then a potential 10-20% increase in cost over the course of a build could be painful.
Yes, exactly. This video was inspired by clients and viewers that told us they had changed their minds about building a new boat and had lowered their budget significantly.
Very factual and offering multiple points of view. Thanks for this analysis of the market. Great job!
Good to see Seth Hynes from sailing Family
Another fantastic episode. You guys are great. Nice to see Seth. Was a big fan of his sailing channel.
Loved the sailing family episodes on Archer.
@@steveturansky9031 Thanks guys!
This was a fabulous episode ‼️ I believe we all needed this eye opener discussion. Thanks for all your efforts. ✨ 🌊 💨 ⛵️ 🏝 👙 🌞 ✨ 💕 ✨
Good to see you are going at this with clarity. Clarity is looking better every day. Cheers.
my first ever sailing video was you comparing cats and mono hulls. No idea why it came up from the algorithm but 1000 sailing videos later your quality is still excellent.
Ok…I’m not just a coffee guy.. I’m an informed geek. The graphs…oh those glorious graphs. You’re not just a boating weather guy..you can also tune a guitar to an F#…and that is alright in my book.
Keep searching. S’Gonna happen and when it does…the “Fix-It-Up” videos are going to be majestic.
🙏
Same issues…..bought a 2002 45 Outremer direct from Outremer.Was guaranteed boat was in “pristine” condition.
Paid all monies up front to Outremer.
They insisted.
Packed up all our stuff including dog.
Flew to France from North America.Took two days to get to boat.
Boat was a nightmare.
No one at Outremer had even looked at it.
Doors would not close.Structural issues.
Refrigeration ripped out of cabinets leaving gaping hole.
Hatches siliconed shut.Told not to open them.
Bimini rotted out.
Fresh bottom paint no pre sanding so paint would peel off under way.
Sail drive boots siliconed.
Temporary ice box built under settee mould.
Electronics missing.Holes in console.
Showed sales pictures to owner he said pics were 5 years old.
We declined the boat.
Outremer charged us for the haul out.1000k.
Outremer charged us for a survey that didn’t happen.1500k.
Outremer took their time returning our 350k.
Entire fiasco car rentals,flights,hotels…7000k.
Back home exactly 1 week later.
Beware!!!
Wow what a nightmare, appreciate you sharing your experience to help others be extra diligent before money is exchanged.
In my humble opinion, the best video you have produced (and they are all good). I very much enjoyed how you put this together - real world accounts and actual data. I learned a lot today!!!
This was a very insightful episode. It was great to see Seth I have been missing the @thesailngfamily videos, what a great adventure that was!
Thanks for watching!
@@TheSailingFamily Seth, can I get a Detroit discount on a boat?? Harhar
We need more of these!
CPI comes out in a few minutes. I wonder if J Pow is going to be happy with it or not?
Great Video, I like how HH does business, it seems fair. I like the partnership description. We know a little bit about Home builders, and right now they are NOT like this. It is not a good time to purchase a home from a new home builder.
Thank YOU both for spending YOUR valuable time on US!
Well Seth certainly has been there done that....seems a cool dude.
Loved "Archer".......
I built boats back in 2008-2012 everything you said is true. Probably never do it again. Just getting quality parts became a issue with the changes in outboards a huge problem. Had to redesign the whole boat. Who would of thought that would ever be a issue? Even today. People think we'll it's just a boat. No it's a constant challenge for builders to find companies that stand the test of Time and costs to not close forever. Excellent information guys. Thank you
Appreciate that Paul. Boatbuilders…pros, amateurs….are a special breed I think. It takes a core passion to do it that goes beyond finances…it is a very difficult business. I met a gent a few years ago that had built a cat. Said it nearly killed him. I chuckled. He says, no…it really almost killed me. He made it around the world, but said he would never build another boat.
Great content! This one has to be one of the top vids from your channel!. Beautifully simple, with fine selection of indicators, and a clear interpretation of data/facts. Hope you don´t shy away (at least every now and then) from sharing more insights on the marine industry or the general economy for that matter. Your weather analysis and boat advice also superb!. Thanks for sharing!
Much appreciated! Thank you.
So good to see Seth Hynes again! I miss his videos from the Sailing Family but knew as soon as he announced his new job, that we would not see another video. His wife didn't seem to enjoy making them or being in them. Shame. It'd be nice to see how the boys are doing.
I knew, as soon as Seth's catamaran comparison videos hit the tube, that a fortunate company would acquire his expertise. HH is the true winner, with Seth at the helm. Seth is in a class above the rest. I miss watching his family sailing channel. I hope the family is happy, with their return to land life.
@@nooneanybodyknows1321 Aww, thanks guys. Move videos will come. I promise! Just been a busy year...
Excellent presentation of the state of the Cat market. That comes from an Econ major that spent 10 years high up at a top Wall Street firm and have been following the economy and markets closely for 45 years and has made a lot of big ticket purchases. Nick is the Universal Man! Pleased to see you can add your skills shown in the video to your consulting clients. One question I have that I don't think you specifically touched on is the effect of the relatively strong dollar on the Cat market for buyers based in dollars. In recent days the dollar has weakened about 5% but is still relatively strong. Totally agree the state of the housing market is the best indicator for the Cat market. I am a fellow cruiser and big fan, I am enjoying the videos. Looking forward to seeing what boat you end up with. Totally agree to wait for the right boat and when you observe a red flag, RUN! I do suggest even though it should not be an issue I would not video or discuss a potential boat until you buy not to make the seller nervous that you will "shit can" his boat and not buy it. Cruising in general and the boat buying process is to the nth degree : " Life is what happens to you while you are making plans".
That’s very nice of you to say. Thank you. I did get into the currency issue in an earlier edit of the video, but I felt I couldn’t adequately explain it. Also, it would depend on the builder and brand as most of these boats are sold in dollars. Labor is then in local currency while components will vary by source. Appreciate the confirmation from someone with formal training and extensive experience!
@@TheOKellys The strong dollar would tend to help buyers of new boats from builders located where the currency is particularly weak. But a lot but of the raw materials to build a cruising cat are dollar based. For the used Cat market the strong dollar probably helps dollar based buyers less. That is because so much of the World thinks/works in dollars and that every used cruising cat is a "one off" especially for any used Cat that is not a production boat. Within the used production Cat market the lower number of a model built or similar model built the more each boat will be tend to be a "one off". Within the production Cat market the older the boat is the more of a "one off" each boat will tend to be. I am fellow cruiser and big fan. Look forward to seeing the boat you end up with and then watching the process of getting her ready and the way you want her. The boat I liked best that you considered was the Chris White. The Outremer 55 model you were considering would be very fast and very comfortable at sea but less comfortable when not sailing. Neel's are not as well made as either of the above but have you talked Neel about giving you one for cost in return for the eyeballs from your videos? Have you seriously considered picking a great cruising base outside the US that would be less expensive to have a house ashore and then limit your sailing to those cruising grounds. It that way you could have a much less expensive but fun boat and have a an expat, less is more type place ashore. For example my wife are based just outside Antigua Guatemala at 7000 ft elevation. We have perfect weather year around, cost of living is 1/3 of PNW, medical care is dirt cheap and good for most issues, we had an event recently where needed an ambulance and it arrived in 5 minutes and an international airport is 1 hour away. LAX is 5 hours. Newark/NYC is 5 hours, Miami is two hours, Houston is 3 hours all non stop. Rio Dulce is an inexpensive place to store, maintain, and repair a boat. Rio Dulce is usually considered outside the hurricane zone and the western Caribbean is under cruised even has an atoll, has the trade winds, and has the second largest barrier reef in the World that runs from the Bay Islands, Honduras to Cancun/tip of Yucatan.
Another great spot for a less is more expat house on land and have a well equipped inexpensive cruising base with gorgeous cruising ground nearby is Guaymas, Mx on the Sea of Cortez. The negative of sailing in the Sea of Cortez is you can often lack wind(no trade winds), but climate is great all but 3-4 months a year in the summer and always low relative, humidity(hot days and cool nights for sleeping with no air conditioning needed). So for the Sea of Cortez a trimaran would make sense for light wind. You could get a less is more expat type place for next to nothing at elevation in Guadalajara or similar for excellent year around weather or go back to Oregon for 3-4 months a year in the summer when the Sea of Cortez is scorching hot.
I seen this in the oil field bust! Everyone keep hoping it change, it change, then all of a sudden it all hit and you could not give a house away. wow, a big deal if you cannot sell your slot! That a huge deal unless it just extra cash that it does not matter what happen.
One of the better videos I ever watched on TH-cam. Nice work Nick
The other problem is everybody thinks they can just start a TH-cam channel buy a half $1 million boat sail around, get subscribers and sail off into the cash Sunset. Those days are over. In fact, I think most sailing channels are over.
Absolutely. If we had put our cat up for sale earlier this year, we would have made a very tidy profit over our original purchase price. We did think about it but decided that we didn't want to go back to land in the foreseeable future. 🤷♂️
Wise move
Great info… but do you ever feel like you are in the movie Aladdin? For your business? “Poof, what do you need? Poof, what do you need? Poof, what do you need?”
Missed seeing Seth on his own channel… Good to see that he is doing so well! I want to be like home when I grow up!!!
Outstanding video with timely and elusive appropriateness in this volatile age of varying supply chains and interest rates/inflation. You nailed it on this one.
❤ thanks guys love the sense of humour
Great video. Another way to look at it is to write a list with two columns factors that will increase prices and beside it factors to that will decrease prices. Then see if one side of the lists is stronger or cancels out the other. Eg interest rates going up make prices go down but inflation making boats more expensive to build or refit makes prices go up. So these two factors might cancel each other out and prices might stay the same. Other factors
Seasons
Unemployment
Share/stock prices
House prices.
Hurricane seasons
Etc etc
Great video thanks
A good book to look into is Black Swan, by Nassim Taleb. We can weigh factors forever, but often nonlinear factors govern outcomes.
I have money set aside for a purchase a used monohull. I had full intentions to buy this year but, watching the sales turn into bidding wars put me off. I could have purchased the same spec boat in 2019 for *half* of what people were asking this past summer. So, I for one, am anticipating prices softening. I am already seeing it start to happen. My thoughts? My money may go further if I wait and prices drop. Instead of a 30' I may be able to afford a 34'. The budget I have includes purchase price, 5 years of moorage and repairs for that time period (based on 10% of purchase per year)
Hi, Great vid, one of ur best, very informative, interesting the 7year wait list, yet other youtubers aren't far from delivery, & considering the wait time, builders hardly need the promotion.
Weird Seawind weren't interested in taking part.
How many participated in ur FB survey's would have been good, I.e. 43% of how many? Cheers!
9great video as usual but let me suggest most new build buyers aren't as exposed (impacted) by the current impact of inflation. however, used buyers and used product prices are affected (influenced) which affects new prices. just like cars and houses
Great vid cheers. Good to see Seth again, miss his videos as well!
🙂
I remember in 2008 people were grinding serial numbers off boats and abandoning them, they were washing up on beaches
Great show and very pertinent for the times.
While I would love to be considering a new HH44, SW1370 or Balance 451, those are 2x-3x the budget I can put towards a boat if I'm lucky.
We will not sell our primary residence. We are early 60's and at our ages (and health), we need a place on land to call home.
Yep, that's our world. We left Seattle because there were not enough liveaboard or 50+ slips available. Moved to Fort Lauderdale thinking there will be ample space. Sure, there is, but at a price! Slips are twice if not, 3 X the price in Seattle. Insurance, double or more. Ugh. It's exhausting. Thanks for another fantastic video with such detail and explanation. Well done!
I hear you. But, you moved to dead center of a tropical hurricane zone, which also happens to be the place where everyone sick of covid policies decided to move to. Welcome to Florida!
I sympathize as a 2011 Florida transfer from the north. We have three houses, and could not afford to buy even one of them now. Prices from late 2020 until now went up so much, it is astounding. And they have not gone down. Tourism is still rock solid (we do vacation rentals) and 2023 prices are still climbing. The island used to be quiet in summer and dead in October - but this year we were booked more than 90% in summer and about 75% in October. Compare that to a typical 30%.
So yeah, everyone wants out of (insert location) and into Florida. Welcome to the team. Please take care of your neighbors, and maybe don't support the things that made your old home, the one you wanted to leave. Enjoy.
Absolutely! Cheers!
Nick, great video. One question: you presented a graph showing ~50% of future cruisers said they would be holding their home and had sufficient savings/pension etc for their passive income. I am curious how many of these people will be financing their boat purchase? The interest rate increases we are seeing are not going to have as much of a rapid effect as what we think as most people are locked into mortgages etc so they are unaffected in the short term. The government isn't seeing a cut in inflation so they just keep increasing rates. In Canada we can lock in money for maximum 5 years and I suspect this is what most people did when the the rate increases started... so the question will now become what the horizon looks like in 5 years time as this is when the pain will happen. We have given up on returning to catamaran life due to extreme boat costs and low value of the Canadian dollar (1.4X as US dollar after exchanges fees etc). I am taking early retirement at 55 and have never felt more uncertain than now.
Don't know. Interesting question though! Hope the tides change and you are able to get back out there. And I hope we can too....
This was a Educational as --- I Loved it Man Thanks ❤️🏴☠️🤙🏻🤙🏻🤙🏻🤙🏻
We went to the show for the first time, really enjoyed it.
Good discussion and very much what I have been witnessing in the market as we search in parallel to you for our next boat which will be a catamaran on the performance side. Since we are still out here cruising on our Hylas there is one other factor that I have been seeing firsthand while plying the waters of the Caribbean and that’s the end of the COVID era adventure seekers. There was a very large number of couples who decided to move from their homes during the excessive lockdown period and go on an adventure. These were not sailors in the traditional sense nor were they long term cruisers, but rather couples seeking to escape the craziness resulting from COVID and travel by any means possible. Many of these people bought large catamarans thinking that was the best platform for them to accomplish this temporary objective. Now they are selling those boats in droves as they return back to land and resume traveling the planet by more traditional means. I think this particular category of boats is adding significantly to the available inventory and helping to drive prices down rather quickly.
Yep. That is absolutely happening. Demand remains strong for GOOD boats, and if priced right they are still selling. Curious to see where the market goes from here. We know a LOT of people looking for a cat right now.
the best explanation of the economic situation and it comes from sailors :)
#1. Thursdays without an O’kelly video are like a root canal without novocaine. I need my O’kelly fix on Thursdays, you’re the crack dealer of TH-cam!! Two weeks!?!? I almost boarded a plane to New Zealand and searched for you! I thought something horrible happened. #2. An O’kelly video without Megan is like a day without sunshine, a pizza without pineapple and ham, a birthday with no cake,a Christmas without presents, If I had to sit through an entire video without seeing Megan, I would have to unsubscribe to this channel! (Don’t get me wrong Nick, you’re a super cool dude and one I’d pick up the entire bar tab to hang out with, but Megan is the star). Hope you find a boat soon and if I ever learn to sail, I’ll hire you to find my shipwreck! ❤
You’re too kind. LOL.
Waiting on a boat due next year and just saw a listing for a boat manufacture going to action hence many of these questions are foremost on my mind. Thanks
Great video. One other thought. Inflation is real all over the world BUT as we found buying and selling our Cat. Where you buy and the exchange rate at the time can make a huge difference. We bought an approx $400k Cat in Turkey from a NZ couple in OZ $ We spent $25K on upgrades and sold it in for $400K US..... During this time the US $ was higher so we effectively broke even. Sailing for nothing!!!. Cats in Australia have always been more expensive than other parts of the world! Taxes, distance, availability BUT the price stay with the flow you talked about. BUT exchange rates do not. A $750K Aust at the beginning of the year in US $ was $560K US NOW it is $472 US So depending on what currency you have.. forget inflation see what currency you can buy in and then see where and how you can buy.
Really good point!
The most insightful multihull video I've watched to date. Keep mapping that data and I look forward to the next update :)
Thank you. Glad to provide some value.
Excellent. Every point that you made is right on. I am going to add a few comments: There are some yacht and RV manufacturers that are on thin ground. But, more important, there are yacht and RV dealers that will most certainly NOT survive through 2023. It is a VERY sensitive subject in the industry, a subject that they do not want to talk about. Transferability of contracts? It is known that, until a recent health issue, I have been in the market for a "special" boat. Consequently, I have been offered build contracts (plural) for 2 of the 3 boat builders that you profiled.
Interesting. How soon are those build slots you’re being offered?
@@TheOKellys The Balance is a ways away but there seems to be some "panic" in the Seawind camp. There are some relatively new builds and (apparently) slots available. TBO, I am more interested in that Maverick which is a tough go almost anywhere little boat.
Looking at the cat market , someone many lagoons not moving after the bulkhead issue , and just how many others were built for the charter market, all makes.
One other interesting data point to look at is the demographic of boat ownership. I can't find it anymore but I once found a graphic of ocean boat ownership. From it I came along with 3 conclusions, 1)a bunch of people enter the boat ownership age 25 to 35 2) a bunch of people enter boat ownership 55 to 65 3) at about age 70 people people start selling there boats at a rapid pace. Intrestly millennials are in bullet point one and bomers are in bullet point 2. 5 to 10 yrs from now boomers will be in bullet point 3
Anecdotally, I’d say more people are buying mid life than ever before. But I have no data
@@TheOKellys the numbers I got where both ocean power and sailboat. They did not have separate data. That may be a factor. It was also only USA, based on coast guard registration.
Never owned a boat and not in the market for a boat. But this was outstanding.
What you have said is so true.
Times are very different now compared to pre covid.
Used and new prices have risen for different reasons. I'm a buyer it's hard as many yachts have been priced above the true value.
I no longer am looking to buy a cait so I'm looking for a smaller monohull just to get sailing.
Do you regret selling clarity.
It's hard for a buyer
We tend not to regret. Learn, move on. We thought it would be easier to get the next boat, and it wasn’t. Such is life. In the meantime, we’ve been having a good time!
I'm always happy to spend my valuable time, on your invaluable knowledge!🤙🏼💖🙇🏼
Our trusty crystal ball tells us the lack of Marina space and climbing insurance costs is making boat ownership unaffordable combined with high interest rates The SHTF for boats sales by Q1 2024 is almost certain if you are a seller. Great opportunity if you are a buyer but don’t expect to get a performance catamaran for 2018 prices.
Let’s check back then and see if Crystal ball needs to be replaced
Time for an update to this video!
Great episode guys. I am Mono hull person but truly enjoy your knowledge, insight and personal opinions on many subjects.
All I will say is it is bloody stupid in Oz for all used yachts including cats! Prices increased early COVID by 30%+.
Other industries heavily effected as well so we have just sold properties we had and now investing in the stock market over the next few years to capitalise and hopefully contract a yacht in the next couple of years!
HH 50 and Outreemer 55 are in our list
Sorry i missed yous in Picton , Would have loved having a pow wow on the way things are going here > Little happening in the boat market , I think people are waiting for the Interest rates to hit the big loans (Housing) & waiting to see what comes on the market . Enjoy your stay . > Ex broker , Charter skipper , Live aboard cruiser on many types of yachts .
Informative, well researched and presented. Very much appreciated too. Thankyou.☺️
as usual, great and well educated, informative video.
today i was pricing boat upgrades, the same upgrades i had considered several months ago. I was purely amazed, to the point initially, i thought maybe website typo's...[in one case, nearly 1/4 of the price from last february, $2000 plus to around $500.00. (new 2022 technology)].
significant price drops in boat hardware. top end products, not a lot noticeable difference. mid to lower end products, have a serious price decrease.
My hillbilly opinion/observation:
but: it's not rocket science to know the "feeding frenzy" ended some time ago. that's not to say, there are plenty of die-hards, holding out for that top price they had hoped for, and a few folks willing to pay it....
the housing market, as you mentioned is dropping, second hand, 20 plus year old boats prices are dropping, used auto market is dropping.
I do like your comment about straight answers from brokers.
there's an ol saying: how do we know when a salesperson is fibbing?
(their mouth is moving)
as one wise fella once explained to me many years ago: "commissions create prostitution" (seemingly, at least, occasionally, there's some folks willing to sell their soul to earn commissions) .
This was interesting. Thanks!
Very good reportage, fills a hole in the information flow regarding the acquisition of a new or used catamaran. A big thanks🤗
Good talk! Lots to think about. Much love to you guys... be safe and have fun!
Thanks for the insight. Just setting here biding my time until both of us are free to sail. Also trying to make some sound moves to purchase. Using the profits from our primary residence to buy a vessel is a big no no for us.
Good to see Seth doing so well. Now I understand why he sold that beautiful Outremer.
Dream job!
@@TheSailingFamily Not necessarily. There is an old saying about turning your hobby into a full time job and spoiling it in the process. Pretty tempting though I must admit.
Very interesting and informative! From my perspective (5-8 years until serious shopping.) I'm keeping a keen eye on today's new builds. There are some incredible boats in production right now, and I look forward to shopping for them, as second owner, when my time comes. Keep up the great work, and good luck in your search!
I wondered who's playing the solo on the end and here comes the answer. Megan is killing it 😎🤩
Great job, Nick! That offer still stands to review your contracts.
Thank you. May have something for you soon…. Do I have your email?
@@TheOKellys I’ll message it to you on Facebook.
A little different O Kelly show but still very helpful well done episode - loved it!! Was that original music???
Nick makes all the tracks for our channel in Logic Pro. He uses loops and samples as well as live play via midi and some basic guitar parts.
Catamarans take a long time to build and are mostly ordered by those that are retiring and aren't going to be scared off by short term economy fluxes. On top of that as you mentioned, it takes years to receive your order so by the time you get it the economy will have rebounded which further reduces getting cold feet by those that ordered. On the other hand, we haven't built enough houses since 2008. Sure we were building too many then, but for only a few year and only about 10% per year too much. It's going to be 15 years of under building once the current interest rates fall and the housing market un-freezes. It's going to make the run up on house costs of 2021 look mild once this happens. There simply aren't enough houses and no investment to build them and even when there is money flowing into building them, there is no one to build them as so many have fled the industry since 2008. This is the reason cruising had better attendance in 2008, all those people who simply up and retired as the economy when to crap. The same thing happened in 2020 and why we now have labor shortages. Those people aren't coming back as most are the last of the boomers retiring.