Bond Market Warns Of Economic Slowdown, Notes Founder of Recession Signal With Perfect Track Record
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 4 มิ.ย. 2024
- Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG.
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So many market participants now regard an inverted yield curve as a harbinger of a recession, due to the indicator’s perfect track record of preceding an economic slowdown. Today, Jack interviews the founder of this economic indicator, Campbell R. Harvey. Harvey shares how he discovered this signal in the bond market in the 1980s, and how it has an 8 out 8 track record in preceding recessions (with zero false signal). An inverted yield curve is when short-term interest rates exceed long-term interest rates. Harvey’s specific signal on which he wrote his dissertation in 1986 (his thesis advisor was Eugene Fama, Nobel Prize-winning economist) was the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 3-month Treasury yield. It is this indicator which has an 8/8 perfect track record, not the 2s10s (10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year Treasury yield), which as Harvey notes gave a false signal in 1998.
Harvey argues that since his 10-year / 3-month signal inverted in the fall of 2022, the first and second quarter of 2024 is when a potential economic slowdown would occur (the average lag between the inversion of the 10-year / 3-month spread is 12 months, but the longest lag is 22 months). However, Harvey notes that there are several positive forces supporting the U.S. economy, such as fiscal stimulus and a strong labor market, as seen by job vacancies in excess of unemployment. While Harvey hopes that these forces can induce a “soft landing,” it is his base case that the 10-year / 3-month inversion will go 9 for 9 in forecasting an economic slowdown.
Harvey is Professor of Finance at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Director of Research and Partner at Research Affiliates, and author of the book “DeFi and the Future of Finance.” Filmed on January 16, 2024.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
12:07 Early 2023 Harvey Raised Possibility That "This Might Be A False Signal"
18:39 VanEck Ad
19:18 Inverted Curves Go From Predicting Recessions To... Causing Them?
21:04 The Theoretical Support For Why Inverted Yield Curves Precede Recessions
25:18 The Impact Of Expectations of Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy On The Yield Curve
30:52 Factors That Support A Soft Landing: Tight Labor Market and Strong Housing Market
36:44 What About The Chance That There Was Already A Recession In 2022?
42:41 Worries About The Banking System And "A Future Credit Squeeze"
46:05 Fed Should Cut Rates Right Now, Since Shelter Inflation Data Is Extremely Lagging
55:04 Closing Thoughts On Yield Curve
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. - บันเทิง
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG.
2024 is here and things are not improving. I'm looking at high-yield dividend stocks. Selling 200k worth of equities is stupid without reinvesting it. I might turn to cash soon if I don't invest it. Any particulars?
Don't get any ideas. If I were you, I would bother less and buy gold and bitcoin. There are more institutional investors in long bonds than individuals. Btw the whole sell-off is not so bad.
I agree, while higher interest rates increase bond yields, they also hurt long-term bondholders who can't wait for their bonds to mature. IMO You are better off for next 5 years by buying the dip now.
These institutions want to hold your money for the longest in the worst bond bear market in history. Do not subscribe. Look for alternatives to keep passive income coming. I think the commodities market is looking good, but consult with a planner like I do before putting your money into these markets.
I'm sorry asking these questions, I am new to bonds, but what is causing the mass bond sell-off? What other alternatives have you tried that bring you passive income?
I consult with a GA but NY based advisor, Monica is well renowned among my colleagues at work as a fixed income strategist and market analyst with an unorthodox approach to investing. With over 130% in gains this past year and AUM ranging from 500b - 600b you can bank on even suggestions from Monica.
I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as bonds and stocks since this can protect my portfolio for retirement. I'm seeking to invest $200K across markets but don't know where to start.
Remember that investing in the stock market carries risks, and it’s important to do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
With the help of an investing advisor, I diversified my $400K portfolio across markets, and I was able to earn over $900k in net profit from high dividend yielding equities, ETFs, and bonds.
With the help of an investing advisor, I diversified my $400K portfolio across markets, and I was able to earn over $900k in net profit from high dividend yielding equities, ETFs, and bonds.
Speaking with an advisor helped me stay afloat in the market and grow my portfolio to about 65% since January 2022, This helped me stay afloat and improve my portfolio of $450k in months.They have strategies that are specifically suited to your long-term objectives and financial aspirations.
I agree, I've been in constant touch with a Investment advisor for approximately 17 months. it's really easy to buy into trending stocks and bond but the task is determining when to sell or hold. That's where my advisor comes in, to help me with entry and exit points , I've accrued over $337k from an initially stagnant reserve of $148K
Finally thanks for the update! I'm trying to hold a million dollars worth of AMS38T$ . Oddly enough it's a sleeper for some weird reason that not many TH-camrs talk about in regards to lnvesting. It has had steady growth since its release.
Gee this AMS38T$ sounds fantastic. I love getting my investing advice in the comment section in TH-cam it's always a sure winner. Can you please send me details of which third world country you are in so I can send all my money to you. I can't wait to hear from you.
Great video Jack, the professor is also great at articulating his word, easy to understand
Professor Harvey is correct about the current inflation data being elevated by inaccurate shelter data. It’s worth noting that the Fed missed the rise in inflation in 2021 because CPI shelter increased by only 4% in calendar year 2021, while Case Schiller increased nearly 20% in 2021.
Even if so, Why would the Fed higher shelter inflation - what the Fed is learning is that putting a lid on housing inflation while increasing wages extends economic growth
Go back to school.
This statement is dogmatically incomprehensible
@bleacherz7503
This is the best video I've seen spoken in language I can understand. Thank you!
It is a government inspired crisis this time. The Treasury have to sell Bonds to cover the trade imbalance and the government spending imbalance. In order to sell them they have to raise interest rates and the old long-term, low risk, low interest, AAA investments (including Treasury Bonds), held by the banks (often due to government regulatory policy), become next to worthless. The next milestone should be soon when the government issue a new batch of Bonds. I have a stagnant portfolio that needs growth. What is the best way to take advantage of this downturn?
Indeed, you are correct! But on the advantageous aspect, economic downturns offer numerous prospects for ordinary individuals to create wealth from the ground up. Nevertheless, seeking guidance from an investment planner might be necessary if you desire a more assertive return.
I'm sure the idea of an investment-Adviser might sound controversial to a few, but a new study by Motley-fool found out that demand for Financial-Advisers sky-rocketed by over 42% since the pandemic and based on firsthand encounter I can say for certain their skillsets are topnotch. I've accrued north of 880k within 16-months from an initially stagnant Portfolio.
This is huge! think you can point me towards the direction of your advisor? been looking at advisory management myself.. seeking ways to invest and make more money with the uncertainty in the economy.
Finding financial advisors like Colleen Janie Towe who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I greatly appreciate it. I'm fortunate to have come upon your message because investing greatly fascinates me. I'll look Colleen up and send her a message. You've truly motivated me. God's blessings on you.
Excellent interview ! I learned more in one hour than i could have read about for months . They should teach this in high school ! Our children would be much better off .
2 simple, humble, smart people sharing so much knowledge. Grateful 🙂
Jack is such a great host, smart, curious and Prof Campbell is so humble and knowledgeable! Love it :-)
Around 51:00 Jack constantly brings up in this and other past videos, this insane MMT dogma based question, asking "isn't the fiscal deficit of the government a surplus to the economy?" as if that makes criminal fiscal abuse of the tax payers' treasury and debt,.,.. the destruction of the dollar and reserve currency and the loss of US financial and geopolitical hegemony status.,... ok,.. "and it doesn't matter how much is printed"?
All I can say is,... and I don't think this is him playing devil's advocate,.. I think he believes in this MMT nonsense,... like his partner is an outright insane bitcoin cultmember,....
are youStupid,.. or do you just have aMentalDisease?
There are no other options.
Huge let down at the end when Jack, after he cut him off on the discussion of a real problem nobody talks about, unfunded liabilities, asked where he thought the yield curve would be in 2024,..., the guy drifted off on his thoughts on a soft landing,.. but didn't wait and push to get his answer on the yield curve.
So after what could have been a good discussion,.. we got no real answers.
Because MMT Jack wanted to bail out asap.
@@bigredfan123
Yep,.. the father of "the yield curve inversion (10's & 3 mos) predicts recessions 100% of the time",.. basically said,... "but not this time,.. no way,.. no how,.. nothing to see here...I was completely wrong."
One of the BEST INTERVIEWS............superb.....thank you....
Fascinating interview with a new interviewee. Thanks for a different perspective! It all adds to the macro stew.
Jack, thanx for bringing Cam to your channel...I learned a lot.
Excellent Analysis from Professor backed up with data. Assuming that it is not a deep recession, soft landing scenario, as some of the indicators suggest, it indicates that it may last longer and will take longer time to come out of the recession. Thanks for sharing the information
Thanks Jason, this was a great interview. Campbell is a quality guest and it was great to hear him explain the inverted yield curve. I've been follow the inversion since 2022.
Your hitting home runs Jason, keep up the great work, and please keep bring quality guests.
The most fascinating podcast I've heard for a long time.
this interview was awesome, thank you!
I REALLY like this guest!
Great interview Jack .. excellent choice of interviewee 👍
Boss Interview Jack! you're the man!
Thank u so much Sir Harvey for talking to us and showing the reality.
Excellent episode. Great insights !
What a great/interesting story Jack. Trust you to dig it out. And Cam is a great guy to boot.
Thanks guys!!
Brilliant disscusion
Thanks Cam & Jack ! 👍🏻💛
Incredible interview
Great Host and Great Guest
Outstanding content, thank you!
Thanks Jack...interesting interview.
Very interesting discussion on yield curve inversion and also a valuable explanation of the cause namely people buying 10Y Treasury’s in a flight to quality (safety) causing the rate to go below the 2Y or 3MTH rates.
Hate that he punted on your last question. The size of the unfunded liabilities is a non-sequitur to the point that government deficits = private surplus and the implication that high interest expense could be possibly stimulative.
Lol i got so confused as he was talking and then he spit out unfunded liabilities and i was like jesus thats the point ur making?! Wasted all that time listening for him to not answer the question lol
Very good show!
Great guest!
Great interview
Fantastic insights.
Excellent interview ❤❤ it
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊
Great interview and discussion. Personal theory: If yields uninvert due to falling short term rates, and if those rates are falling due to a weakening economy, does that not encourage increased buying of longer dated bonds? And does that bid for the long end further reduce liquidity? In some respect I would think this helps to cause a recession. Would love some thoughts on this idea!
wow! I had no idea he invented the yield curve! Took his course on DeFi at Coursera and applying to Fuqua MBA soon! Super super cool interview
Amazing video
Brilliant!🌞
Wish you asked about it the yield curve control may have an effect . I suppose not bc they do it underhanded either way but I'll have to look at japan and see
1. The deficit problem could be solved as this guy says in the video,.. but there's no incentive when the voters, and the demcorats use it to their benefit, have now learned how to raid the US kitty with their votes.
The debt has been doubling about every 8 years,..
2000 - $4 trillion
2008 - $9.5 trillion
2016 - $20 trillion
2024 - $36 trillion
2032 - $65 trillion
and on and on,...
while GDP grows at about 1 to 2% per year.
Japan here we come.
Where the Fed will be forced to buy 80% of the debt and enact yield curve control to ZIRP.
2. On the video,..
Around 51:00 Jack constantly brings up in this and other past videos, this insane MMT dogma based question, asking "isn't the fiscal deficit of the government a surplus to the economy?" as if that makes criminal fiscal abuse of the tax payers' treasury and debt,.,.. the destruction of the dollar and reserve currency and the loss of US financial and geopolitical hegemony status.,... ok,.. "and it doesn't matter how much is printed"?
All I can say is,... and I don't think this is him playing devil's advocate,.. I think he believes in this MMT nonsense,... like his partner is an outright insane bitcoin cultmember,....
are youStupid,.. or do you just have aMentalDisease?
There are no other options.
Huge let down at the end when Jack, after he cut him off on the discussion of a real problem nobody talks about, unfunded liabilities, asked where he thought the yield curve would be in 2024,..., the guy drifted off on his thoughts on a soft landing,.. but didn't wait and push to get his answer on the yield curve.
So after what could have been a good discussion,.. we got no real answers.
Because MMT Jack wanted to bail out asap.
Part of a very important coin been talked about in the BCL
When hitting the brake and accelerator at the same time "Bull Markets" can still boom, as Wall Street money manager want ?
Fed does not make the treasury yields move. They follow the two year T bill yield.
Fascinating story. I believe the pattern seems a bit unusual now due to the prolonged period of exceptionally low interest rates, possibly making it less accurate.
There is a missing CPI metric in play-new fees for things that used to be free(many digital services) are popping up EVERYWHERE
like your Vermeer
I did wonder if the yield curve predictor only estimates a contraction in private demand. The mega growth we have seen in the last 12 months was fueled by a huge expansion in public spending, which is certainly masking a real-economy recession.
1. What "mega growth"?
They deficit spend % to 10% of GDP and we get 1 to 2% growth.
The deficit problem could be solved as this guy says in the video,.. but there's no incentive when the voters, and the demcorats use it to their benefit, have now learned how to raid the US kitty with their votes.
The debt has been doubling about every 8 years,..
2000 - $4 trillion
2008 - $9.5 trillion
2016 - $20 trillion
2024 - $36 trillion
2032 - $65 trillion
and on and on,...
while GDP grows at about 1 to 2% per year.
Japan here we come.
Where the Fed will be forced to buy 80% of the debt and enact yield curve control to ZIRP.
2. On the video,..
Around 51:00 Jack constantly brings up in this and other past videos, this insane MMT dogma based question, asking "isn't the fiscal deficit of the government a surplus to the economy?" as if that makes criminal fiscal abuse of the tax payers' treasury and debt,.,.. the destruction of the dollar and reserve currency and the loss of US financial and geopolitical hegemony status.,... ok,.. "and it doesn't matter how much is printed"?
All I can say is,... and I don't think this is him playing devil's advocate,.. I think he believes in this MMT nonsense,... like his partner is an outright insane bitcoin cultmember,....
are youStupid,.. or do you just have aMentalDisease?
There are no other options.
Huge let down at the end when Jack, after he cut him off on the discussion of a real problem nobody talks about, unfunded liabilities, asked where he thought the yield curve would be in 2024,..., the guy drifted off on his thoughts on a soft landing,.. but didn't wait and push to get his answer on the yield curve.
So after what could have been a good discussion,.. we got no real answers.
Because MMT Jack wanted to bail out asap.
We're talking about the same yield curve that's currently signaling a soft landing, right?
Block , my man !
He's so happy about the Recession coming in, like he's super excited to be witnessing it.
I didn't get that at all
He specifically said that he hopes the indicator is wrong... what interview are you listening to?
Hold on, your discounting shelter because its smoothed, whilst allowing the CPI to record health insurance (which makes up a laughable small proportion of the total number) which is also smoothed despite it clearly running far hotter than what is being recorded?
In short the CPI and the way its recorded does not reflect reality, that much is clear, but what is obvious is that the large wage rises across sectors is going to have an impact on consumer spending and we are highly likely to see a rebound in inflation especially if the FED aggressively cuts.
Click bait? Guest is saying that there will be no or mild recession this year. Also what about the 1000 banks failing as claimed by the guest last year on TV?
He's right about the delay in housing but you can't lower rates fast when you didn't raise them fast on the front end. Can't have it both ways. People are already dealing with worst affordability of all time.
Unreal
why did you go from an accepted definition of 2months neg. growth of GDP, to adopt the yield curve inversion theory?
2 month neg GDP real growth is not what National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), defines as a recession. What counts is broad-based declines in real production, employment, consumption, and investment. As Professor Campbell says in this interview consumption and employment was very strong in Q1 and Q2 2022, the period in question where real GDP was negative for two quarters in a row. I know many (including me) have referred to two quarter-over-quarter negative prints as a recession but the NBER doesn't buy it and they are the last word on the matter.
-Jack
But if the rates are negative when inflation adjusted, this inverted yield curve cannot have the same meaning as an inverted yield curve of positive inflation adjusted rates!
Goldilocks window has closed that time when markets were aligned for perfection … again that Greenspan and post Greenspan era has closed. The understandable tendency is to try to proceed on the assumption that will continue. And the financial policies of the big players is to continue on those assumptions because it’s all gotten much too big to fail because failing comes from such withering heights of unsustainable stimulative policies that have gone on for much of the neoliberalism experiment
This left me confused. It seemed the whole time he was calling for a recession in 2024, but at the end when he summarized he said a slowdown, but probably no recession. I guess I need to listen to this again.
I heard that the USA is SLOWLY becoming less dependent on consumption growth as investment grows.
The market is no longer the same, it is completely different! To the moon
With all these growth why are most people in the Streets?
37:00 I love how everybody pretended we didn't have a recession, for purely political purposes. It used to be shouted from the mountaintops but now, no?
1. Yeah the guy says, it wasn't a recession because "they didn't say it was a recession".
Yeah, don't believe your lying eyes,.. believe us.
But then later calls it a recession with,.. "the mild recession we had in 2021,.."
2. Around 51:00 Jack constantly brings up in this and other past videos, this insane MMT dogma based question, asking "isn't the fiscal deficit of the government a surplus to the economy?" as if that makes criminal fiscal abuse of the tax payers' treasury and debt,.,.. the destruction of the dollar and reserve currency and the loss of US financial and geopolitical hegemony status.,... ok,.. "and it doesn't matter how much is printed"?
All I can say is,... and I don't think this is him playing devil's advocate,.. I think he believes in this MMT nonsense,... like his partner is an outright insane bitcoin cultmember,....
are youStupid,.. or do you just have aMentalDisease?
There are no other options.
Huge let down at the end when Jack, after he cut him off on the discussion of a real problem nobody talks about, unfunded liabilities, asked where he thought the yield curve would be in 2024,..., the guy drifted off on his thoughts on a soft landing,.. but didn't wait and push to get his answer on the yield curve.
So after what could have been a good discussion,.. we got no real answers.
Because MMT Jack wanted to bail out asap.
Sounds to me like he is saying after 8 out of 8, this time the indicator won't work.
Somebody get my boy a trip to Turkey stat
Fund Builders not D-Bags saying Dr. Copper
the most anticipated potential recession, Business are prepped, people had some covid cash, housing is more stable...but how low can we go, before something breaks...Beige Books showing some concerning job statements...unemployment to rise rapidly within 7 months or can lowering the rates safe us all....have my popcorn and soda ready ;)
Stocks extended their year-to-date rally following the CPI report, with the S&P 500 last up 0.8% in afternoon trading. but I don't know if stocks will quickly rebound, continue to pull back or move sideways for a few weeks, or if conditions will rapidly deteriorate.I am under pressure to grow my reserve of $250k.
It's really hard to beat the market as a mere investor. It's just better if you invest with the help of a professional understands the market dynamics better.
I agree, having a brokerage advisor for investing is genius! Amidst the financial crisis in 2008, I was really having investing nightmare prior touching base with a advisor. In a nutshell, i've accrued over $2m with the help of my advisor from an initial $350k investment.
I’ve been down a ton, I’m only holding on so I can recoup, I really need help, who is this investment-adviser that guides you
Aileen Gertrude Tippy' is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
Well, this guy has a model and all. But when the government runs a fiscal deficit at this rate, how can a recession happen? NO WAY.
Very good point. Also since the stock market is pesimistic about recessions, even if it is in a bear market a recession is not a sure thing; but we are far from being in a bear market now.
The past inflation has led to current ridiculous shelter costs. Unfortunately due to the large investment firms buying up family homes, relatively short supply and pent up demand if interest rates fall housing inflation will be immediately triggered again. The big problem is the Fed and gov't stimulus created this ridiculous asset bubble where housing takes such a large proportion of income. Being from Toronto you should be aware of distorted supply and demand for housing. In Canada's case due to huge immigration, lack of supply. Huge govt created problem. We need now a housing crash, especially in Canada. Government should heavily tax real estate purchase that isn't your principal residence. Ultra low interest rates created this unsustainable, unnatural growth. MMT is dead, thankfully.
41:31 GDP numbers come out tomorrow.
Great content, but the way this guy piercingly stared straight into the camera and also gave some sultry shoulder moves at times, makes me a little weirded out.
AMS38T$ gang in the house! Thanks for the analysis!
I'm DCAing in AMS38T$ as well. ETH heavier DCA and ALGO. I'm taking your advice and starting Google tomorrow with a 50 dollar purchase and continuing Microsoft and Apple. VTI and VOO on another app and longterm portfolio. Here we go family!
The Harvey signal does not work in practice and it is not even statistically significant in predicting recessions
Has he never heard of job skills mismatches?
Im calling BS on rental inflation. That shit is up where i live 20 percent from last year. I see NO rental deflation whatsoever.
I'm seeing some clear rental deflation. Not everywhere, but there's definitely rent deflation in a lot of places (well, I mostly look at the West/South) The biggest problem is that a lot of landlords play the "two months free" game before actually dropping rental rates, so the official "data" is often misleading.
I am seeing AMS38T$ everywhere can you make a video for these ico projects especially AMS38T$ .
Are you nuts? Bond market is down today when you released the video.. there are no recession signs flashing..
interesting that he doesn't think a recession will start this year.
1. Yeah but then he says there wasn't a recession in Q1 & Q2 of 2022 either because "they didn't say it was a recession".
The guy who invented the idea that "an inverted yield curve means a recession will happen on average 13 months after the 10's & 3 mo invert", says we're not going to have a recession in the 13th through 25th month after inversion"???
So should we take away his PHD or has he just gone insane?
There are no other options.
Speaking of insane,..
2. Around 51:00 Jack constantly brings up in this and other past videos, this insane MMT dogma based question, asking "isn't the fiscal deficit of the government a surplus to the economy?" as if that makes criminal fiscal abuse of the tax payers' treasury and debt,.,.. the destruction of the dollar and reserve currency and the loss of US financial and geopolitical hegemony status.,... ok,.. "and it doesn't matter how much is printed"?
All I can say is,... and I don't think this is him playing devil's advocate,.. I think he believes in this MMT nonsense,... like his partner is an outright insane bitcoin cultmember,....
are youStupid,.. or do you just have aMentalDisease?
There are no other options.
Huge let down at the end when Jack, after he cut him off on the discussion of a real problem nobody talks about, unfunded liabilities, asked where he thought the yield curve would be in 2024,..., the guy drifted off on his thoughts on a soft landing,.. but didn't wait and push to get his answer on the yield curve.
So after what could have been a good discussion,.. we got no real answers.
Because MMT Jack wanted to bail out asap.
The number of paid trolls and sockpuppets on FinTube is ludicrous.
agreed, we can't delete these comments fast enough
You are one of the most sophisticated and brilliant TH-camr/content creator I watch, and 1million percent the very best in finance. I appreciate all of your content thank you for AMS38T$ much love from Chicago
Imagine doing research in atmosphere of Lies doctored stats and deception.
He was wrong in 2019. He is 7 for 8. Yes, there was a recession in 2020, but economists know that it would not have occurred had it not been for shutting down the economy due to COVID. As an economist, we have many recession flags, and not all of them were waving. He may be wrong again this year, yet again. The economy will slow, but it may not be for two consecutive quarters. Only time will tell.
My largest holding is Amazons AMS38T$. Glad it came out to be this. I’m a fanboy and I like jeff. He reminds me of Steve Jobs when he speaks.
Look man, all this academic modeling is fine and dandy, but as long as the govt is juicing up the economy at an annual 7% deficit-to-GDP (most likely to increase in election year), there cannot be an organic recession (negative GDP growth, raising unemployment, etc). I am not saying such deficit rate is sustainable, but for as long as it is in place the dollars will continue flowing regardless of the shape of the yield curve.
Thank you for this video. There are so many uninformed people out there when it comes to AMS38T$
Rumors were that Amazon would launch AMS38T$ this month and judging from this it's pretty accurate haha
It would be funny when the FED goes brrr and the short end of the yield crashes (bull steepening), but the long end climbs steeply due to Janet Yellen going brrr + investors capitulating (bear steepening). The FED will end up buying everything anyway...
1. The Fed doesn't print money. It only reacts to fiscal abuse and printing done by the government and the treasury.
But I agree,.. if the demcorats and their voters prevent the republicans,.. not to mention the republicans themselves,.. from ending the unnecessary insane criminal fiscal abuse of this senile ole joe admin,.. then we will turn into Japan,... with the Fed being forced to buy up 80% of the debt issued and enacting yield curve control,.. in a never ending ZIRP.
The deficit problem could be solved as this guy says in the video,.. but there's no incentive when the voters, and the demcorats use it to their benefit, have now learned how to raid the US kitty with their votes.
The debt has been doubling about every 8 years,..
2000 - $4 trillion
2008 - $9.5 trillion
2016 - $20 trillion
2024 - $36 trillion
2032 - $65 trillion
and on and on,...
while GDP grow at about 1 to 2% per year.
Japan here we come.
2. On the video,..
Around 51:00 Jack constantly brings up in this and other past videos, this insane MMT dogma based question, asking "isn't the fiscal deficit of the government a surplus to the economy?" as if that makes criminal fiscal abuse of the tax payers' treasury and debt,.,.. the destruction of the dollar and reserve currency and the loss of US financial and geopolitical hegemony status.,... ok,.. "and it doesn't matter how much is printed"?
All I can say is,... and I don't think this is him playing devil's advocate,.. I think he believes in this MMT nonsense,... like his partner is an outright insane bitcoin cultmember,....
are youStupid,.. or do you just have aMentalDisease?
There are no other options.
Huge let down at the end when Jack, after he cut him off on the discussion of a real problem nobody talks about, unfunded liabilities, asked where he thought the yield curve would be in 2024,..., the guy drifted off on his thoughts on a soft landing,.. but didn't wait and push to get his answer on the yield curve.
So after what could have been a good discussion,.. we got no real answers.
Because MMT Jack wanted to bail out asap.
increased interest rates created artificially so that FED can decrease them just before elections, no need for lengthy analysis of patterns and forecasting efforts 😂
PLEASE ENOUGH ON RECESSION, NOT IN 2024! PERIOD!
Campbell Harvey is perhaps the most overrated economist today.
He states that the Fed should lower interest rates bc the housing inflation is a lagging variable - why would we want housing inflation at all??? That’s the real issue. Goods and services inflation generally mean that salaries will increase, housing inflation means at least 75% of consumers will have less spending power not more.
Not all inflation. Is created equally -
Someone f'd up here Jack...
what do you mean?
If neither the healthcare costs or housing prices are down, then all his analysis is typical armchair economist analysis.
This week is hell and a bloodbath can happen but why we don't discuss the fact that Amazon also released their AMS38T$ in it? Always two sides of a coin
Do not underestimate the power of getting in early. If you are not in AMS38T$ now, you are lagging behind.
Nothing original here: dr copper? Inverted yield curve? Stocks v bonds? He was laid off? Basic, cliched and a waste of time.
are you kidding me. he literally invented it. every time you hear about the signal from someone that's not him, it's not "original"
are you kidding me. he literally invented it. every time you hear about the signal from someone that's not him, it's not "original"
I tried to check my portfolio but realised I couldn't see it after being blinded by your forehead.
AMS38T$ and Bitcoin are the two top choices. I would start with them. I consider them must buys. The others I like and hold is Cardano and Gala. In time I feel they will go higher than they are. Probably 2025 when the next bull run happens. AMS38T$ real cheap to buy in right now so the future profit will be sweet. I also hold Shiba Inu but that's a risky investment and not something I would suggest to anyone new.