80% stocks 20% cash. I plan to take advantage of the s&p 500 as leading indicators predict above 10% rise by this year, my only issue is how to properly allocate a large $5m stock/bond portfolio for substantial gains at minimum risk of inflation.
I believe that diversifying your investments is the safest way to handle it. One way to lessen the effects of a market crisis is to distribute investments over a variety of asset classes, such as international equities, bonds, and real estate. It's critical to look for expert advice.
Certain Mag 7 companies are rumoured to be overvalued and might cause a market correction, I’d suggest you go with a managed portfolio, but even those don’t perform so well, so it’s best you reach out to a proper fiduciary to guide you, that’s what works for my spouse and I. We've made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.
I fired mine 12 yrs ago. now I am beginning to see the benefits, how do I get one? Considering your point I won’t want to get into a bubble. Can you recommend any?
"Melissa Maureen Ward" is who i work with and she is a hot topic even among financial elitist in New York. Just browse, you’d find her, thank me later.
Buying of ETFs is easy, but buying the right one without a time-tested strategy is incredibly hard. Hence which is best to buy now or put on a watchlist? I’ve been trying to grow my portfolio of $260K for sometime now, my major challenge is not knowing the best entry and exit strategies... I would greatly appreciate any suggestions.
Just because there are opportunities in the market doesn’t mean you should go in blindly. To understand the potential factors that contribute to your financial growth, I'll advise you to seek the help of a professional.
The best course of action if you lack market knowledge is to ask a consultant or investing coach for guidance or assistance. Speaking with a consultant helped me stay afloat in the market and grow my portfolio to about 65% since January, even though I know it sounds obvious or generic. I believe that is the most effective way to enter the business at the moment.
I believe that, given the current volatility of the stock market, investors should be concentrating on undervalued companies. This is because, despite the devastation caused by the falling value of three-quarters of the stocks in my $270,000 portfolio, I have no idea where to go from these stocks.
During a recession, investors must understand where and how to distribute capital in order to hedge against downturns while being profitable. If you are unable to navigate the market, speak with an expert advisor.
Several individuals minimize the importance of counsel until their own feelings become overwhelming. A few summers ago, following a protracted divorce, I needed a significant push to keep my firm afloat. I looked for licensed advisors and found someone with the highest qualifications. She has contributed to my reserve increasing from $275k to $850k despite inflation.
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
'Laurelyn Gross Pohlmeier' a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
I used to think every investor went broke during recessions, meanwhile some make millions. I also thought everybody went out of business during the Great Depression, but some went into business. Bottom line, there's always depression for some, and profit for others, it all starts from having the right mindset. That said, I've set asides $250k to invest for future, unfortunately l'm a complete noob.
What are the best strategies to protect my portfolio from a crash? I've heard that the market crash will devastate the financial market, so I'm concerned about my $200k portfolio.
Amidst recession, investors need to understand where and how to allocate funds to hedge against downturns and still make profits. if you can't navigate the market you should consult with an expert advisor
The US-Stock Market had been on it’s longest bull-run in history, so the mass hysteria and panic is relatable considering we’re not accustomed to such troubled markets, but there are avenues lurking around if you know where to look I’ve netted over $450k in the past 10months.
Please who is the consultant that assist you with your investment and if you don't mind, how do I get in touch with them? My portfolio is in the red waters right now
Natalie Marie Tuttle is my Advis0r. She has since provided entry and exit points on the securities I concentrate on. If you want to check her out, you may do so online. I usually trade in accordance with her strategy.
Thanks, I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a call.
It's hard to predict the future until we see this month’s inflation results. However, historical data consistently show that stocks tend to outperform bonds in the long term. Therefore, I'm staying in the market and focusing on selecting high-quality stocks. The challenge lies in identifying these stocks.
Staying in touch with a financial advisor was my effective strategy. During the pandemic, I outperformed the market, earning about $200k in four months. Its been a remarkable few years for me with my advisor .
I wholeheartedly agree, which is why I choose to delegate my daily investment decisions to a coach. Their specialised knowledge, research, and risk management skills make it challenging for them to underperform. They focus on utilising risk for its asymmetrical potential while mitigating downsides. I've been with my investment coach for over two years and have earned over a quarter-million dollars.
My collection has been underperforming recently, and I'm considering a strategy change with the help of a coach. Is it possible to get in touch with your coach?
"Lisa Angelique Abel" oversees my portfolio, simply do your due diligence. She's an extremely intelligent person, very thoughtful, cautious, and shows a great deal of expertise with over two decades of experience in her line of work.
The ongoing sell-off in bonds and worries about an escalation in Middle East hostilities are weighing on the market, as it waits for Big Tech companies to fire up earnings season this week. I want to invest more than $300k, but not sure on how to mitigate risk
investors are bracing for key data to shed light on the strength of the US economy. Readings on third quarter GDP and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge are expected later this week.
Speaking with an advisor helped me stay afloat in the market and grow my portfolio to about 65% since January 2022, This helped me stay afloat and improve my portfolio of $450k in months.They have strategies that are specifically suited to your long-term objectives and financial aspirations.
I started out with a financial advisor called Alicia Estela Cabouli Her honest approach gives me complete ownership and control of my positions, and her rates are incredibly affordable given my ROI. However, do your due diligence before contacting a financial advisor.
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
Thanks guys, I’m just a housekeeper, yet listening to you guys I feel empowered, not so much in avoiding most of the economic downturns, but just knowing why.
Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2023, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $350,000 savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.
It's a delicate season now, so you can do little or nothing on your own. Hence I will suggest you get yourself a professional that can provide you with entry and exit points on the securities you focus on.
Yes true, I have been in touch with a financial advisor. With an initial starting reserve of 180,000, my advisor chooses the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to approximately $355,000.
Laura Marie Ray is my Advis0r. She has since provided entry and exit points on the securities I concentrate on. If you want to check her out, you may do so online. I usually trade in accordance with her strategy.
@@WilliamHarwoodx Thanks, I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a call.
In these uncertain times, it's more important than ever to have a solid understanding of how to manage your finances, invest wisely and navigate economic downturns. But my primary concern is how to grow my reserve of $240k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains, sure I'm all in on the long term game, but with my savings are lying waste to inflation and my portfolio losing gains everyday, I need a remedy.
you are completely right, Advisors have information and paths that are not disclosed to the public.. I profited £560k in 2022 under the tutelage of my Fiduciary-counselor. Am I selling? Absolutely not.. I am going to sit back and observe how this all plays out.
My advisor is 'Margaret Johnson Arndt'. In terms of portfolio diversity, she's a genius. You can glance her name up on the internet and verify her yourself. she has years of financial market experience
i’m not sure it distorted valuations, instead i think it distorted our view on debt. we used to buy expensive things on credit like houses and cars and pay cash for everything else. using a credit card for clothes, food, vacations was frowned upon because of interest rates. same with governments borrowing, it was used for large projects and frowned upon for smaller jobs. with zirp people borrowed for everything and said “ah just borrow the money and make the minimum payments,”
You're thinking about the rate in relation to inflation, Luke is emphasizing the rate compared to 0% yielding bonds that have been sold for the past 10 years. The Treasury is issuing bonds with 5% yields while financial institutions are holding bonds on their balance sheets with 0ish% yield. This creates a feedback loop where entities sell bonds because they need to buy energy and materials which are becoming more scarce, which raises rates and causes more selling. Rinse and repeat. Yield curve control is the only answer to punish bond holders gradually rather than all at once and BFTP was 'yield curve control for banks'
Always enjoy Luke! Then he said he was from Cleveland and now I know why! It’s like listening to my friends not bullcrap me while having a beer. Thanks Mr. Groman.
I feel like the best parts of this interview were cut out. Like I'm pretty sure he em said something like "where going to crash so fast and so hard" but then the channel was like "we can't put that in" there's a few jump cuts to make me think so.
Such a good interview. I love Luke, but glad you pushed back often so we could get a deeper understanding of his position. It’s not always easy to do that vs just agreeing. Keep it up!
The best investment advice is this; " stick to what you know". For most retail investors the best investment is buying your home and paying off the mortgage, and or buying further homes for rent. The stock market is controlled by computer algorithms and inside knowledge. Long term, investment in farm land, water and healthy food production is the safest and best for growth.
As a Brit, am I the only hoping for higher rates 😊 Sold couple of my properties, put it in short term gilts. Now I don't have to put up with bloody tenants. And great thing is my yeilds are higher now and trouble free 🎉
There seems to be skepticism amongst investors regarding the Federal Reserve's plan to continue increasing interest rates until inflation is stabilized. I'm at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my dipping 200k stocck portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this bear market?
The current market might give opportunities to maximize profit within a short term, but in order to execute such strategy , you must be a skilled practitioner.
Having an lnvestment advser is the best way to go about the market right now, especially for near retirees, I've been in touch with a coach for awhile now mostly cause I lack the depth knowledge and mental fortitude to deal with these recurring market conditions, I nettd over $220K so far, that made it clear there's more to the market that we avg joes don't know
I see a lot of talking heads on TV and TH-cam blaming Jerome Powell for everything saying he can't lower rates for this reason nor can he raise rates for that reason. So if you're all the "experts" who know the right answers, then tell us all what he SHOULD do.
Playing in the stock market is like playing musical chairs. There are people at the top that control the music . When the music stops most of the chairs are gone.
So in simple terms, which should’ve came out of your mouth is the dollar is gonna be backed by gold and that’s where we’re headed. Wow that only took two hours thank you very much.
What is the best way to profit from the current market, meanwhile I'm still undecided about investing $250k in my stock portfolio to get some dvidends and minimize risk
The market is volatile at this time, hence I will advice you get yourself a financial advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the share/etf you focus on.
I was recently through an investing nightmare during the crash in march 2020. With the assistance of my advisor I have so far grown my dwindling portfolio of $145k to $400k
”Debra Ella Nicholas” is the lady's name. I first saw her on a goldman sachs' report, then on Smart Advisors, and immediately looked her up on the internet; it was the best decision I've made to stay afloat in these crazy times. She has been outstanding.
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web because this is equally important to me, and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
There seems to be skepticism amongst investors regarding the Federal Reserve's plan to continue increasing interest rates until inflation is stabilized. As for myself, I find myself at a crossroads, uncertain whether to invest $150,000 into my stock portfolio. I'm seeking advice on the best strategy to capitalize on this current market.
With the help of an investment advisor, I was able to diversify my $550K portfolio across multiple markets, and since the second quarter, I was able to earn over $350K in net profit.
A good FA is critical for portf0lio diversification. My advisor is *Sharon Louise Count* who can be found readily and has great understanding of the financial markets.
Is it a good time to buy a short term treasury bond 2year or lless? Its 5% interest so if you buy a 500 dollar treasury bond at the end of maturity you would earn 5% or qhatever the onterest rate is a td that time correct?
Gromen always sounds like a salesman than a researcher. And that is a BIG telling in terms of macro research/being a professional trader (promoting yourself)
Luke is calculating 5% on 30 trillion of debt? Why? Was all the debt sold at 5%? I doubt. Can someone explain? I think only the new debt will be at 5%.
TLT, sit back for a couple of years and collect the dividend. Only thing I hold that is not paying a dividend is PHYS (gold). Oh and the gold in my safe and in vault storage. No dividend. That is the worst investment in my mind
Putin has a PhD in energy economics, is a lawyer, speaks fluent German and is former KGB. You better bring your A game if your going to challenge him to a game of 3D Chess. Biden can't remember his name.
@@tjkoch408 dude, are you serious? His dissertation wasn't a PhD, and what was there is plagiarism pure and simple, large parts word-for-word from King/Cleland's textbook Strategic Planning and Policy. Have a look at it, it's a joke
@@roadrunner7988and have it turn into Afghanistan? Their goal wasn’t to take Ukraine. A 60 minutes report just came out stating our tax dollars are paying for salaries of gov workers in Ukraine. Not to mention the adverse effects sanctions are having on the fight against inflation via increases in energy prices.
The goal was $70 billion being funneled via Ukraine / Pentagon in to Black Rock ESG portfolios whose dividend's about to line up Rothschild aka Globalist cronies. Win win Ponzy
Ya but listen to what lacy hunt says. You can deficit spend to increase gdp. But once you go so high over 80% and then 100% debt to gdp the return of a dollar spent actually leads to negative gdp Growth. This means short term gdp grows sure, but after a while it leads to negative growth. This then forces the government to spend more to grow the economy because the money they spent in the past lead to the economy shrinking. Luke gets it. He says we need to get debt to gdp down to what 70% or whatever. My issue is why would politicians grow a pair and act like adults after they have massive inflation to inflate the debt away? It’s like if there’s no restraint before any would politicians magically find religion and become responsible? Even mitt Romney that’s lds is pro war with Russia. It’s like he’s voted for more death then most Christian’s. And then mitt says he votes with his conscience before god but it’s the opposite of his church’s teachings that war is only justified in self defense of your home and war is not justified in seeking and promoting war or looking for war which is what the U.S. has done for decades.
In this environment government deficit spending is driving inflation, forcing rates to stay high. This damages the private economy while the real culprits go unpunished.
I agree with his thesis; I’m skeptical of his timing. Government borrowing will just keep going for a while. The apocalypse will take longer to get to, but then be worse than expected.
Yeah, it's not as much of a binary switch as Luke claims. There's things the Fed can do in the meantime to suppress inflation (by oppressing the banks).
@@jonathanbaxter5821 The recent relative strength of the dollar against other world currencies, particularly the yuan, will embolden U.S. treasury & Ways & Means bureaucrats to keep the borrowing party going much longer than would have otherwise been the case.
@@tommyeschung To be clear - I do believe a stock market crash is coming soon. I’m quite comfortable taking my 5.5% on 1-year Treasuries and watching the next 12-months of shit show unfold. What I *don’t* believe is that there’s any fiscal or monetary sanity coming from the government for a long, long time. It’ll be at least a 2008-level equities crash - but just like then, won’t change government irrationality one bit.
You cannot equate inflation with real growth. The way I heard him, he said inflation equals growth: Interest Expense = Stimulus and Higher Growth = Higher Inflation. To determine the real growth rate, you have to subtract out REAL inflation (not Gov inflation) to arrive at the growth rates. if you understate inflation, you overstate growth.
Yea definition of words are so loose , everyone uses same names meaning different things.Whenever anyone says word liek " inflation", "economy growing" it is clearly necesarry that he sais definition. Becouse the use those words however they see fit ." inflation" used to mean exansion of money supply . He is apperently not using it in that sense. I think when he sais inflation he doesn;t even mean currency devaluation.
The problem is too many treasuries, period. It doesn't matter who holds them (the Fed or the banks). The effect is the basically the same when there's just not enough buyers.
Mr Gromen is really upset because interest rates aren’t zero? (or too high at 5%), If he subtracted 3% inflation, the real rate is 2%, and his mortgage is 2.9%, some people just like to complain when rates are not zero?
120k in my portfolio are in tech/TSLA stocks, can I get an advice on any other stocks that I can acquire to diversify my reserve across multiple markets while creating a comprehensive portfolio allocation that balances my concerns of risk aversion and returns that meet yearly inflation.
Concentrate on two primary goals. To begin, protect yourself by knowing when to sell stocks to limit losses and maximize gains. Second, prepare to profit from market shifts. I recommend seeking guidance from a financial-advis0r or another specialist.
The best course of action if you lack market knowledge is to ask a consultant or investing coach for guidance or assistance. Speaking with a consultant helped me stay afloat in the market and grow my portfolio to about 65% since January, I believe that is the most effective way to enter the business at the moment.
My consultant is Monica Amanda McClure She has since provide entry and exit points on the securities I focus on. You can look her up online if you care for guidance. I basically follow her instructions and haven’t regretted doing so.
If you are in debt you cant borrow to get out of debt . the FED is gone mad and the rest of the world has moved on they can see what the Dollars doing basically the Dollar is gone BOOOOOOM like in big short
My gut feeling from what I’ve seen and heard this year is the same, but I’m curious what makes you think this will happen. A continuing increase in dollar strength in the short term? Global recession causing fall in both equities and commodities concurrently?
The date of this interview literally marked the top of crude for 2023... I love how he made it sound like oil was going to $120 in 3 weeks just for it to absolutely dump, and it's still going down 😂
The idea of investing a significant sum of money may be both thrilling and intimidating. There is potential for considerable wealth increase with the correct strategy. How can one take advantage of compound interest and potentially grow your retirement savings/net-worth to about $3M over time?
A solid strategy can be a key component of an investor’s portfolio. Well, the bigger the risk, the bigger the reward and such impeccable decisions are better guided by professionals.
Very true, people downplay advisors role, until burnt by their mistakes. I remember just after my layoff early 2020 amidst covid outbreak, I needed to stay afloat, hence researched for license advisors. Thankfully, I came across someone of practical knowledge, and decades of experience, my stagnant reserve of $325K has yielded nearly $1m after subsequent investments so far.
How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financlal future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?
There are a lot of independent advisors you might look into. But i work with Carol Pasol Lewis and I have been working together for nearly four years, and she is excellent. You could proceed with her if she satisfies your discretion. I endorse her.
Unless the dollar goes down or unless the oil goes down, this is going to happen what is the this is going to happen and you mean by this is going to happen is gold a good thing to get into BClear? Could you please be clear
THIS used to be one of my most watched YT channels... sadly, it's been a while since i visited it has been a very rough year... i am experiencing one of the toughest phases of my life... Lost a fortune lnvesting in emerging companies. Hopeful, for a turnaround.
Short version: the federal government can no longer fund its debt, so it's acting just like a maxed-out consumer with 10 credit cards. Pick a card to pay off each month by increasing the balance on the other cards. Blows up real fast.
Always love Lukes tremendous knowledge - with Jack, I always have the impression that he has just come out of college and is passing on the knowledge he has learned there.
@@paulbuonfiglio7967yeah didn’t it? No matter how pointed Jack’s questions his answers ran in circles. To be fair it’s a very complex set of effects, it ripples out and echoes in rings like drops in a shallow pond. Jack seemed to understand just fine IMO, if anything Luke’s shrillness made me think he is on the wrong side of the trade, although who wouldn’t be should all this come to pass?
It sounds all very dramatic but wrong on many fronts. Firstly higher rates less demand, bond yeilds being more attractive than a crashing over valued stock market. Higher yields lower commodity prices, lower demand. Thongs are cooling down and there is always a bog spike in oil prices, whoch are in real terms at all time lows currently, before a recess3.
Luke is channeling his MMT where risings interests rates are stimulative. However, that's only true if any interest gain is immediately spent into the economy. Just a fantastic conversation ... a must watch.
Wtf is ‘pull the plug’? Life goes on no matter what happens. And if everything collapses, gold won’t be worth much because there will be nothing to buy.
If hedge funds are the most short treasury cash futures they have ever been, but are long the treasury bonds on the other side -- just because bond prices melt lower, arent these hedge funds 'hedged' being short the cash futures? WHy would they get forced out?
Real rates are still quite negative. CPI is a joke. Come on Jay “Transitory” Powell. Jack up rates and sell mbs. Make risk free saving of $ great again!
I know this is odd question but would you know if my per2 retirement is safe or is it going to become insolvent? I know that you would have to answer hypothetically and not asking for financial advice fyi. Lol
For the first time in almost 20 years bonds have to price not just the inflation level, but inflation volatility. That's going to keep longer duration bond yields higher for longer, even if the fed doesn't keep rates higher for longer.
Surprising that more people don't understand this. Jack should have been on top of US fiscal position vis a vis oil prices, shale, tax receipts and selling of TLT. It'll be very obvious in hindsight.
People need to accept that rates will stay higher for longer no matter how they want to rationalize why that won't be the case. The FED will continue giving you the middle finger, and that's a good thing in my opinion
Imho what powell wants it’s the financial economy not leading the “real economy” and lowering wealth inequality and the way to do it having a , stronger dollar and lowering financial assets and real estate . That tool is higher rates . If that failed gold will explode higher . What thing people forgot is like 80% of people do not have much financial assets and so the only asset they have is the actual currency -> wages . Regular people need high rates with lower inflation .
@sivi9741 Both the financial and real economy are out of whack because the US had a $10T monetary and fiscal stimulus to address the pandemic problem. It was way overdone, and since this awful, selfish, stupid society only cares about what will bring the most pleasure right now, that money was used to buy goods, financial assets, and for real estate speculation. Powell knows that he messed up, and now he is trying to correct that problem. Also, the reason he kept rates too low for longer was to combat inequality because the low cost of capital and reopening of the economy created an economic boom that favored people at the bottom the most, but squeeze the crap out of the middle class with inflation not seemed since the 80s
Anyone who is not an MMT looney will realize that higher rates are NOT stimulative. So, if i get a higher yield on a 2 year, I'm going to spend all that yield into the economy? Most likely not. I'll reinvest into those higher fixed rates and keep my money out of casino asset bubbles like stocks and real estate.
You could argue it would be stimulative if the US debt to gdp ratio was much lower like late 70’s and early 80’s, heck even the 90’s, it would at least sustainably persist without crippling things but now they are stuck as F as they (Fed) helped push for an economy running on all forms of debt (govt., consumer, commercial). Over indebted with higher rates and round the toilet it goes, weeeee, weeeee.
It is because higher rates mean higher federal deficit which they automatically borrow. They never cut spending to pay higher debt payment. They just borrow more.
This is what you can do . When core inflation hits 2% and the fed pivots DCA into "VOO SCHD QQQ" they will go up in value as inflation rises. Eventually the FED will say inflation is to high and will begin raising rates SELL VOO and put it into FDCI Ins money markets which checking/ debit priveldge it will eventually pay 5% safely and guaranteed no risk so you should not even be in the markets PERIOD. When the fed raises rates VOO SCHD QQQ will go down in value so you should not be in them. However they have done really well this go round of fed rate hikes but conventional wisdom dictates be in the money markets during rate hikes. You cant time the markets and between feb/march 2020 there was HUGE drop in VOO 306 down to 210 but that was due to covid and people panicking but it came right back up in Sept So its true you cant time markets buy you can move based on the fed movements and not have to suffer VOO dropping in value during rate hikes, you can ride it out in money markets, no need for bonds. In march of 2022 the fed started rate hikes VOO was at 397 and after 11 rate hikes its at 393. so it remained flat during the rate hikes and the money markets are now paying the magic safe 5%. the point of rate hikes is to force you to stop spending and sell VOO and put it all in money markets at the bank so do it. VOO has faired very well during rate hikes and covid, every one should be in it. Even if you just invested in VOO and went into a coma would will do fine.
Watching this again In May 2024. I used to watch it over and over when I was driving truck. I quit and came home. I watched Suits and now listening to Luke with his movie references, he reminds me of Harvey Specter of Financial world. Have him on again now that gold and silver are moving up. I love his if Powell wants to be Volcker, stand aside. Please get him on again now that metals are going up.
Interesting, but any suggestion of buying bitcoin automatically discredits guest position. Difficult times call for investment in real cash flow producing businesses.
Powell was trained as an attorney. Does he know what he's doing? What Economist is guiding Powell? Powell may be a good litigator, but not a good decision maker regarding economics.
This is what you can do . When core inflation hits 2% and the fed pivots DCA into "VOO SCHD QQQ" they will go up in value as inflation rises. Eventually the FED will say inflation is to high and will begin raising rates SELL VOO and put it into FDCI Ins money markets which checking/ debit priveldge it will eventually pay 5% safely and guaranteed no risk so you should not even be in the markets PERIOD. When the fed raises rates VOO SCHD QQQ will go down in value so you should not be in them. However they have done really well this go round of fed rate hikes but conventional wisdom dictates be in the money markets during rate hikes. You cant time the markets and between feb/march 2020 there was HUGE drop in VOO 306 down to 210 but that was due to covid and people panicking but it came right back up in Sept So its true you cant time markets buy you can move based on the fed movements and not have to suffer VOO dropping in value during rate hikes, you can ride it out in money markets, no need for bonds. In march of 2022 the fed started rate hikes VOO was at 397 and after 11 rate hikes its at 393. so it remained flat during the rate hikes and the money markets are now paying the magic safe 5%. the point of rate hikes is to force you to stop spending and sell VOO and put it all in money markets at the bank so do it. VOO has faired very well during rate hikes and covid, every one should be in it. Even if you just invested in VOO and went into a coma would will do fine.
There should be a free market of interest rates. Not a centrally controlled rate. The fallacy is thinking that a person or group of people is better than the market
I understand your perspective and agree that the technicality of the dollar being the world reserve currency allows for predictions about its behavior. However, I respectfully disagree with the notion that the dollar "rules" in an absolute sense. It is important to consider the impact of human perception. When leaders and individuals in various countries perceive the dollar as a tool for punishing and manipulating global politics through questionable means, it fosters a sense of rebellion. As a result, it is likely that the dominance of the dollar will inevitably dwindle as the world reacts to these perceived injustices.
If Powell were to get things contained, he'd have to tell Congress what the receipts allow and limit it to that. He would have to speak up that the spending has to be curbed, in order to maintain all fiscal responsibility. Trying to adjust the numbers, based off of unlimited spending is a losers game.
Odd use of the term 2nd derivative. That is a calculus term referring to the derivative of the first derivative. The first derivative tells us the rate of change of displacement, i.e. velocity. The second derivative tells us the rate of change of velocity, i.e. acceleration. The other problem with his comment is that the derivative assumes one knows the expression representing the phenomena in question. I have yet to see anyone propose an actual mathematical expression that describes this topic with any validity. Is he trying to say instead apparent cause versus secondary (actual?) cause.
foreigners sell UST to defend their currencies which means to sell USD to rise JPY or whatever the currency. But Selling usd should weaken it not drive it higher. If selling UST drives the rates higher and this attracts buyers it means there is demand for USD from other foreign players. The whole idea of this interview is that there is not enough demand for UST worldwide, therefore USD should weaken not rise
@@drno3391 dont think so, it’s the other way around. Foreigners dumb UST not to rise dollars but to sell dollars and buy their own currency. It means 3 trillion usd hitting the market :) not foreigners chasing the dollars
I get what you are saying, and i agree that to some extent you are correct, it's only logical. But what luke didn't say, which implicitly is a condition, is that foreigner selling will drive the yield up, so it will cause the USD index to go up temporarily, because you will have a situation where inflation looks like it has troughed and you have positive real rate, relative to majority of the world right now which has negative real rate, so in a way it's not so much that USD goes up, but really that it depreciate against gold slower than everything else. However in the long run you are correct and i think Luke's core thesis is the same, that the USD will devalue, partially due to inflation partially due to less and less trade are settled in USD, and so will most fiat with the exception of a handful of nations that run trade and fiscal surplus, has energy independence and etc
@@lsb0119but look: selling 7 trillion of UST by the foreigners (CB and others) would drive the yields up as its additional supply. Who’s gonna buy it though? There is no big demand (enough balance sheet world wide)to absorb this selling plus the regular issuance Luke mentions (more supply). If the buyers are another foreigners it means demand for usd and usd up. But if they are enough buyers to meet this enormous supply then there is no problem in the first place which is the main topic discussed here by Luke
The guy is flat out wrong. There's still Ginormous demand for dollars in every single country. Russia, China and other Clown-run countries must put LIMITS on the amount of dollars their "citizens" can buy, otherwise the demand would destroy their own (crap) currencies and make a mockery out of their claims to "de-dollarize".
Yields and oil has not even priced in a recession yet. 30 year bond is at key level from 2008 and a diagonal trend line from 2016. So these 2 trend line give a higher probability of a pull back at some point. On the COT chart you can see the bond selling started in 05/29 and has continued to sell over until today. 05/29 was also the time the dollar started to rally up. So i am assuming hedge funds shorted then and countries hold bonds started to cash out long term bonds and convert them from USD into their home currency since it was at the best conversion rate since april of 2022 (this is my take on how it started). USD and long term yields are pretty correlated at the moment.
80% stocks 20% cash. I plan to take advantage of the s&p 500 as leading indicators predict above 10% rise by this year, my only issue is how to properly allocate a large $5m stock/bond portfolio for substantial gains at minimum risk of inflation.
I believe that diversifying your investments is the safest way to handle it. One way to lessen the effects of a market crisis is to distribute investments over a variety of asset classes, such as international equities, bonds, and real estate. It's critical to look for expert advice.
Certain Mag 7 companies are rumoured to be overvalued and might cause a market correction, I’d suggest you go with a managed portfolio, but even those don’t perform so well, so it’s best you reach out to a proper fiduciary to guide you, that’s what works for my spouse and I. We've made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.
I fired mine 12 yrs ago. now I am beginning to see the benefits, how do I get one? Considering your point I won’t want to get into a bubble. Can you recommend any?
"Melissa Maureen Ward" is who i work with and she is a hot topic even among financial elitist in New York. Just browse, you’d find her, thank me later.
Thank you for this amazing tip. I just looked the name up, wrote her explaining my financial market goals and scheduled a call.
Buying of ETFs is easy, but buying the right one without a time-tested strategy is incredibly hard. Hence which is best to buy now or put on a watchlist? I’ve been trying to grow my portfolio of $260K for sometime now, my major challenge is not knowing the best entry and exit strategies... I would greatly appreciate any suggestions.
Just because there are opportunities in the market doesn’t mean you should go in blindly. To understand the potential factors that contribute to your financial growth, I'll advise you to seek the help of a professional.
The best course of action if you lack market knowledge is to ask a consultant or investing coach for guidance or assistance. Speaking with a consultant helped me stay afloat in the market and grow my portfolio to about 65% since January, even though I know it sounds obvious or generic. I believe that is the most effective way to enter the business at the moment.
I need advice on how to rebuild my portfolio and develop more successful tactics. Where can I find this coach?
Rebecca Noblett Roberts is the manager I speak with. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
I'm pleased with the advisor's prompt and knowledgeable assistance. Their professionalism instills confidence. Looking forward to further discussions.
I believe that, given the current volatility of the stock market, investors should be concentrating on undervalued companies. This is because, despite the devastation caused by the falling value of three-quarters of the stocks in my $270,000 portfolio, I have no idea where to go from these stocks.
During a recession, investors must understand where and how to distribute capital in order to hedge against downturns while being profitable. If you are unable to navigate the market, speak with an expert advisor.
Several individuals minimize the importance of counsel until their own feelings become overwhelming. A few summers ago, following a protracted divorce, I needed a significant push to keep my firm afloat. I looked for licensed advisors and found someone with the highest qualifications. She has contributed to my reserve increasing from $275k to $850k despite inflation.
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
'Laurelyn Gross Pohlmeier' a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
I used to think every investor went broke during recessions, meanwhile some make millions. I also thought everybody went out of business during the Great Depression, but some went into business. Bottom line, there's always depression for some, and profit for others, it all starts from having the right mindset. That said, I've set asides $250k to invest for future, unfortunately l'm a complete noob.
The market has gone berserk! regardless of experience level, everyone needs a sort of coach at some point to thrive forward.
How can I contact your Asset coach as my portfolio is dwindling?
@@CollinJon
Perhaps so -- but not necessarily the woman who is paying you to post this spam.
What are the best strategies to protect my portfolio from a crash? I've heard that the market crash will devastate the financial market, so I'm concerned about my $200k portfolio.
Amidst recession, investors need to understand where and how to allocate funds to hedge against downturns and still make profits. if you can't navigate the market you should consult with an expert advisor
The US-Stock Market had been on it’s longest bull-run in history, so the mass hysteria and panic is relatable considering we’re not accustomed to such troubled markets, but there are avenues lurking around if you know where to look I’ve netted over $450k in the past 10months.
Please who is the consultant that assist you with your investment and if you don't mind, how do I get in touch with them? My portfolio is in the red waters right now
Natalie Marie Tuttle is my Advis0r. She has since provided entry and exit points on the securities I concentrate on. If you want to check her out, you may do so online. I usually trade in accordance with her strategy.
Thanks, I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a call.
It's hard to predict the future until we see this month’s inflation results. However, historical data consistently show that stocks tend to outperform bonds in the long term. Therefore, I'm staying in the market and focusing on selecting high-quality stocks. The challenge lies in identifying these stocks.
Staying in touch with a financial advisor was my effective strategy. During the pandemic, I outperformed the market, earning about $200k in four months. Its been a remarkable few years for me with my advisor .
I wholeheartedly agree, which is why I choose to delegate my daily investment decisions to a coach. Their specialised knowledge, research, and risk management skills make it challenging for them to underperform. They focus on utilising risk for its asymmetrical potential while mitigating downsides. I've been with my investment coach for over two years and have earned over a quarter-million dollars.
My collection has been underperforming recently, and I'm considering a strategy change with the help of a coach. Is it possible to get in touch with your coach?
"Lisa Angelique Abel" oversees my portfolio, simply do your due diligence. She's an extremely intelligent person, very thoughtful, cautious, and shows a great deal of expertise with over two decades of experience in her line of work.
thanks for this tip, found her just after inputting her full name on my browser, no-sweat.. she seems impeccable!
I’m under pressure to grow my reserve that currently holds about $500k. I’m down by 20% already during the crash and i fear i could lose more.
Thank you for this amazing tip. I just looked the name up, wrote her and scheduled a call.
The ongoing sell-off in bonds and worries about an escalation in Middle East hostilities are weighing on the market, as it waits for Big Tech companies to fire up earnings season this week. I want to invest more than $300k, but not sure on how to mitigate risk
investors are bracing for key data to shed light on the strength of the US economy. Readings on third quarter GDP and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge are expected later this week.
Speaking with an advisor helped me stay afloat in the market and grow my portfolio to about 65% since January 2022, This helped me stay afloat and improve my portfolio of $450k in months.They have strategies that are specifically suited to your long-term objectives and financial aspirations.
My partner’s been considering going the same route, could you share more info please on the advisor that guides you
I started out with a financial advisor called Alicia Estela Cabouli Her honest approach gives me complete ownership and control of my positions, and her rates are incredibly affordable given my ROI. However, do your due diligence before contacting a financial advisor.
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
Thanks guys, I’m just a housekeeper, yet listening to you guys I feel empowered, not so much in avoiding most of the economic downturns, but just knowing why.
Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2023, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $350,000 savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.
It's a delicate season now, so you can do little or nothing on your own.
Hence I will suggest you get yourself a professional that can provide you with entry and exit points on the securities you focus on.
Yes true, I have been in touch with a financial advisor. With an initial starting reserve of 180,000, my advisor chooses the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to approximately $355,000.
@@WilliamHarwoodx I’ve been looking to switch to an advisor for a while now. Any help pointing me to a trusted advisor?
Laura Marie Ray is my Advis0r. She has since provided entry and exit points on the securities I concentrate on. If you want to check her out, you may do so online. I usually trade in accordance with her strategy.
@@WilliamHarwoodx Thanks, I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a call.
In these uncertain times, it's more important than ever to have a solid understanding of how to manage your finances, invest wisely and navigate economic downturns. But my primary concern is how to grow my reserve of $240k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains, sure I'm all in on the long term game, but with my savings are lying waste to inflation and my portfolio losing gains everyday, I need a remedy.
you are completely right, Advisors have information and paths that are not disclosed to the public.. I profited £560k in 2022 under the tutelage of my Fiduciary-counselor. Am I selling? Absolutely not.. I am going to sit back and observe how this all plays out.
My advisor is 'Margaret Johnson Arndt'. In terms of portfolio diversity, she's a genius. You can glance her name up on the internet and verify her yourself. she has years of financial market experience
I checked Margaret up out of curiosity and i must say i am impressed by her Credentials. i emailed her already, waiting on her response.
5% rates is not the problem. That is a normalized rate. The problem is we had zirp for 15 years that drastically distorted asset valuations.
i’m not sure it distorted valuations, instead i think it distorted our view on debt. we used to buy expensive things on credit like houses and cars and pay cash for everything else. using a credit card for clothes, food, vacations was frowned upon because of interest rates. same with governments borrowing, it was used for large projects and frowned upon for smaller jobs. with zirp people borrowed for everything and said “ah just borrow the money and make the minimum payments,”
Agree
Interest rates 20:43 one part of the trade. The other part is debt, and that is where things differ..
5% is a huge problem for the US Govt.
You're thinking about the rate in relation to inflation, Luke is emphasizing the rate compared to 0% yielding bonds that have been sold for the past 10 years. The Treasury is issuing bonds with 5% yields while financial institutions are holding bonds on their balance sheets with 0ish% yield. This creates a feedback loop where entities sell bonds because they need to buy energy and materials which are becoming more scarce, which raises rates and causes more selling. Rinse and repeat. Yield curve control is the only answer to punish bond holders gradually rather than all at once and BFTP was 'yield curve control for banks'
Always enjoy Luke! Then he said he was from Cleveland and now I know why! It’s like listening to my friends not bullcrap me while having a beer. Thanks Mr. Groman.
This man is a genius and I can’t understand the limited views other than TH-cam censorship.
Indeed, his brain is illuminated by 500W projectors when 99% of people trudge through the night with a flashlight...
I feel like the best parts of this interview were cut out. Like I'm pretty sure he em said something like "where going to crash so fast and so hard" but then the channel was like "we can't put that in" there's a few jump cuts to make me think so.
Well it's always been about 75% deficit US vs 60% surplus Japan...
What an absolutely fabulous presentation and interview - LG at his LG best!
Such a good interview. I love Luke, but glad you pushed back often so we could get a deeper understanding of his position. It’s not always easy to do that vs just agreeing. Keep it up!
The best investment advice is this; " stick to what you know". For most retail investors the best investment is buying your home and paying off the mortgage, and or buying further homes for rent. The stock market is controlled by computer algorithms and inside knowledge. Long term, investment in farm land, water and healthy food production is the safest and best for growth.
what an excellent interview. Your guest is extremely knowledgeable, and his thesis is extremely strong.
As a Brit, am I the only hoping for higher rates 😊
Sold couple of my properties, put it in short term gilts.
Now I don't have to put up with bloody tenants.
And great thing is my yeilds are higher now and trouble free 🎉
Agreed. These higher rates are the historical norm. It is high time that our cash and bonds start returning a fair rate of return.
There seems to be skepticism amongst investors regarding the Federal Reserve's plan to continue increasing interest rates until inflation is stabilized. I'm at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my dipping 200k stocck portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this bear market?
The current market might give opportunities to maximize profit within a short term, but in order to execute such strategy , you must be a skilled practitioner.
Having an lnvestment advser is the best way to go about the market right now, especially for near retirees, I've been in touch with a coach for awhile now mostly cause I lack the depth knowledge and mental fortitude to deal with these recurring market conditions, I nettd over $220K so far, that made it clear there's more to the market that we avg joes don't know
That’s impressive, Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one.
My advisor is .LEILA SIMOES PINTO. You can easily look her up, she has years of financial market experience.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
What a great guest. Have to listen twice to catch everything.
I see a lot of talking heads on TV and TH-cam blaming Jerome Powell for everything saying he can't lower rates for this reason nor can he raise rates for that reason. So if you're all the "experts" who know the right answers, then tell us all what he SHOULD do.
Agreed totally after awhile it sounds like…bla bla bla powell bla bla bla… meaning talk is cheap. How bout they walk all their talk?!
Playing in the stock market is like playing musical chairs. There are people at the top that control the music . When the music stops most of the chairs are gone.
Listening to this on my drive to work, fantastic questions and brilliant answers, really informative for me guys thank you.
So in simple terms, which should’ve came out of your mouth is the dollar is gonna be backed by gold and that’s where we’re headed. Wow that only took two hours thank you very much.
Luke sure does sound smart. On the other hand, my gold is still down in price, from when I first heard him over 3 years ago.
I love how the host did not get Luke’s car analogy. “What do you mean? If my dad buys me a car it’s mine” LOL
What is the best way to profit from the current market, meanwhile I'm still undecided about investing $250k in my stock portfolio to get some dvidends and minimize risk
The market is volatile at this time, hence I will advice you get yourself a financial advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the share/etf you focus on.
I was recently through an investing nightmare during the crash in march 2020. With the assistance of my advisor I have so far grown my dwindling portfolio of $145k to $400k
I find this interesting. Could you please provide me with the means to get in touch with your Adviser? I am concerned about my dwindling portfolio.
”Debra Ella Nicholas” is the lady's name. I first saw her on a goldman sachs' report, then on Smart Advisors, and immediately looked her up on the internet; it was the best decision I've made to stay afloat in these crazy times. She has been outstanding.
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web because this is equally important to me, and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
Somehow, this has been my favorite podcast of 2H, because I gained an understanding of snookering. Thanks Blockworks!
There seems to be skepticism amongst investors regarding the Federal Reserve's plan to continue increasing interest rates until inflation is stabilized. As for myself, I find myself at a crossroads, uncertain whether to invest $150,000 into my stock portfolio. I'm seeking advice on the best strategy to capitalize on this current market.
Investing in stocks can be a wise decision, especially if you have a reliable trading system that can lead you to fruitful days of success.
With the help of an investment advisor, I was able to diversify my $550K portfolio across multiple markets, and since the second quarter, I was able to earn over $350K in net profit.
I need a guide so i can salvage my port-folio from its current state and come up with better strategies. How can one reach this advisor?
A good FA is critical for portf0lio diversification. My advisor is *Sharon Louise Count* who can be found readily and has great understanding of the financial markets.
thanks for the pointer
That was TOP SHELF.....simple, and brilliant....
This guy is great! Thanks for having him
1:27 "Which snowflake touched off the avalanche which killed your and your entire family." Great analogy.
Is it a good time to buy a short term treasury bond 2year or lless? Its 5% interest so if you buy a 500 dollar treasury bond at the end of maturity you would earn 5% or qhatever the onterest rate is a td that time correct?
Your exceptional "tease out" ability is never wasted on a great mind like Luke G. Enjoyed this episode immensely!
Gromen always sounds like a salesman than a researcher. And that is a BIG telling in terms of macro research/being a professional trader (promoting yourself)
I think he just sounds pissed off. 😂
Luke is calculating 5% on 30 trillion of debt? Why? Was all the debt sold at 5%? I doubt. Can someone explain? I think only the new debt will be at 5%.
Good job jack. Luke brilliant as always.
TLT, sit back for a couple of years and collect the dividend. Only thing I hold that is not paying a dividend is PHYS (gold). Oh and the gold in my safe and in vault storage. No dividend. That is the worst investment in my mind
Gold is Emergency money
Dude you are getting killed with real inflation with a 5% yield.
I am running for the exits from long term treasuries through TLT..and I jusy=t bought at 88.5!!
TLT is the way
thank you guys..Luke ppreciate your explanations on these relationships
I didn't really follow any of this...but it really seems like we are up the creek without a paddle.
The PhDs from the FED forgot that Putin wrote his own PhD on natural resources and macro-economics... and that he owns the natural resources.
Putin has a PhD in energy economics, is a lawyer, speaks fluent German and is former KGB. You better bring your A game if your going to challenge him to a game of 3D Chess. Biden can't remember his name.
@@tjkoch408 dude, are you serious? His dissertation wasn't a PhD, and what was there is plagiarism pure and simple, large parts word-for-word from King/Cleland's textbook Strategic Planning and Policy. Have a look at it, it's a joke
@@roadrunner7988 US / NATO tried and embarrassed itself tremendously. Not gonna happen buddy.
@@roadrunner7988and have it turn into Afghanistan? Their goal wasn’t to take Ukraine. A 60 minutes report just came out stating our tax dollars are paying for salaries of gov workers in Ukraine. Not to mention the adverse effects sanctions are having on the fight against inflation via increases in energy prices.
The goal was $70 billion being funneled via Ukraine / Pentagon in to Black Rock ESG portfolios whose dividend's about to line up Rothschild aka Globalist cronies. Win win Ponzy
Raising oil price is the same as currency devaluing
This guy actually gets it. Deficit spending supports the economy.
supports GDP, which is a foolish measure of “the economy.”
Ya but listen to what lacy hunt says. You can deficit spend to increase gdp.
But once you go so high over 80% and then 100% debt to gdp the return of a dollar spent actually leads to negative gdp
Growth. This means short term gdp grows sure, but after a while it leads to negative growth. This then forces the government to spend more to grow the economy because the money they spent in the past lead to the economy shrinking.
Luke gets it. He says we need to get debt to gdp down to what 70% or whatever.
My issue is why would politicians grow a pair and act like adults after they have massive inflation to inflate the debt away? It’s like if there’s no restraint before any would politicians magically find religion and become responsible?
Even mitt Romney that’s lds is pro war with Russia. It’s like he’s voted for more death then most Christian’s. And then mitt says he votes with his conscience before god but it’s the opposite of his church’s teachings that war is only justified in self defense of your home and war is not justified in seeking and promoting war or looking for war which is what the U.S. has done for decades.
If that were true Venezuela would be a superpower.
Lol asinine. It’s true but it’s not a good thing
In this environment government deficit spending is driving inflation, forcing rates to stay high. This damages the private economy while the real culprits go unpunished.
I agree with his thesis; I’m skeptical of his timing. Government borrowing will just keep going for a while. The apocalypse will take longer to get to, but then be worse than expected.
Yeah, it's not as much of a binary switch as Luke claims. There's things the Fed can do in the meantime to suppress inflation (by oppressing the banks).
@@jonathanbaxter5821
The recent relative strength of the dollar against other world currencies, particularly the yuan, will embolden U.S. treasury & Ways & Means bureaucrats to keep the borrowing party going much longer than would have otherwise been the case.
Yields climbing too fast man
@@tommyeschung
To be clear - I do believe a stock market crash is coming soon. I’m quite comfortable taking my 5.5% on 1-year Treasuries and watching the next 12-months of shit show unfold.
What I *don’t* believe is that there’s any fiscal or monetary sanity coming from the government for a long, long time. It’ll be at least a 2008-level equities crash - but just like then, won’t change government irrationality one bit.
When asked "You Rent or Own" I actually have to think about it. From what perspective is the question being asked. Own - in what regard.
Rent from a landlord or mortgage from a bank
Gold miners are so cheap now, compared to the gold price that it's ridiculous! PE ratios are out of whack, time for dividends 😊.
Luke is right, there are productivity enhancing energy innovations ready to deploy.
You cannot equate inflation with real growth. The way I heard him, he said inflation equals growth: Interest Expense = Stimulus and Higher Growth = Higher Inflation. To determine the real growth rate, you have to subtract out REAL inflation (not Gov inflation) to arrive at the growth rates. if you understate inflation, you overstate growth.
Yea definition of words are so loose , everyone uses same names meaning different things.Whenever anyone says word liek " inflation", "economy growing" it is clearly necesarry that he sais definition. Becouse the use those words however they see fit ." inflation" used to mean exansion of money supply . He is apperently not using it in that sense. I think when he sais inflation he doesn;t even mean currency devaluation.
The problem is too many treasuries, period. It doesn't matter who holds them (the Fed or the banks). The effect is the basically the same when there's just not enough buyers.
Didn’t the problem really start when they printed way too much money and held interest rates down way too long?
Short answer... YES 😂
Mr Gromen is really upset because interest rates aren’t zero? (or too high at 5%), If he subtracted 3% inflation, the real rate is 2%, and his mortgage is 2.9%, some people just like to complain when rates are not zero?
120k in my portfolio are in tech/TSLA stocks, can I get an advice on any other stocks that I can acquire to diversify my reserve across multiple markets while creating a comprehensive portfolio allocation that balances my concerns of risk aversion and returns that meet yearly inflation.
Concentrate on two primary goals. To begin, protect yourself by knowing when to sell stocks to limit losses and maximize gains. Second, prepare to profit from market shifts. I recommend seeking guidance from a financial-advis0r or another specialist.
The best course of action if you lack market knowledge is to ask a consultant or investing coach for guidance or assistance. Speaking with a consultant helped me stay afloat in the market and grow my portfolio to about 65% since January, I believe that is the most effective way to enter the business at the moment.
Please who is the consultant that assist you with your investment and if you don't mind, how do I get in touch with them?
My consultant is Monica Amanda McClure She has since provide entry and exit points on the securities I focus on. You can look her up online if you care for guidance. I basically follow her instructions and haven’t regretted doing so.
I just looked her up and her strength is very attractive, I will definitely write to her soon. Thanks.
Luke is my favorite for understanding the big picture.
If you are in debt you cant borrow to get out of debt . the FED is gone mad and the rest of the world has moved on they can see what the Dollars doing basically the Dollar is gone BOOOOOOM like in big short
If this continues silver and gold will hit new lows in short term. Time to stack up
My gut feeling from what I’ve seen and heard this year is the same, but I’m curious what makes you think this will happen. A continuing increase in dollar strength in the short term? Global recession causing fall in both equities and commodities concurrently?
what blackrock whitepaper from august 2019 is he referencing at 21:10?
The date of this interview literally marked the top of crude for 2023... I love how he made it sound like oil was going to $120 in 3 weeks just for it to absolutely dump, and it's still going down 😂
The idea of investing a significant sum of money may be both thrilling and intimidating. There is potential for considerable wealth increase with the correct strategy. How can one take advantage of compound interest and potentially grow your retirement savings/net-worth to about $3M over time?
A solid strategy can be a key component of an investor’s portfolio. Well, the bigger the risk, the bigger the reward and such impeccable decisions are better guided by professionals.
Very true, people downplay advisors role, until burnt by their mistakes. I remember just after my layoff early 2020 amidst covid outbreak, I needed to stay afloat, hence researched for license advisors. Thankfully, I came across someone of practical knowledge, and decades of experience, my stagnant reserve of $325K has yielded nearly $1m after subsequent investments so far.
How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financlal future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?
There are a lot of independent advisors you might look into. But i work with Carol Pasol Lewis and I have been working together for nearly four years, and she is excellent. You could proceed with her if she satisfies your discretion. I endorse her.
Unless the dollar goes down or unless the oil goes down, this is going to happen what is the this is going to happen and you mean by this is going to happen is gold a good thing to get into BClear? Could you please be clear
THIS used to be one of my most watched YT channels... sadly, it's been a while since i visited it has been a very rough year... i am experiencing one of the toughest phases of my life... Lost a fortune lnvesting in emerging companies. Hopeful, for a turnaround.
You must have been greedy serves you right. lol.
Short version: the federal government can no longer fund its debt, so it's acting just like a maxed-out consumer with 10 credit cards. Pick a card to pay off each month by increasing the balance on the other cards. Blows up real fast.
Always love Lukes tremendous knowledge - with Jack, I always have the impression that he has just come out of college and is passing on the knowledge he has learned there.
Seemed like Luke was over his head...
@@paulbuonfiglio7967yeah didn’t it? No matter how pointed Jack’s questions his answers ran in circles. To be fair it’s a very complex set of effects, it ripples out and echoes in rings like drops in a shallow pond. Jack seemed to understand just fine IMO, if anything Luke’s shrillness made me think he is on the wrong side of the trade, although who wouldn’t be should all this come to pass?
Excellent interview, love the verbatim few good men reference lol
I feel like his "stand aside" bit was very much a line you could give to The Joker in batman and it would work perfectly!
It sounds all very dramatic but wrong on many fronts. Firstly higher rates less demand, bond yeilds being more attractive than a crashing over valued stock market. Higher yields lower commodity prices, lower demand. Thongs are cooling down and there is always a bog spike in oil prices, whoch are in real terms at all time lows currently, before a recess3.
Great interview I love how the post ask questions that might be on the listener's minds well done
Luke is channeling his MMT where risings interests rates are stimulative. However, that's only true if any interest gain is immediately spent into the economy. Just a fantastic conversation ... a must watch.
I had that thought a couple times too, LOL.
Thank you for the excellent presentation. This has really helped me understand all of this at a deeper level.
They're going to pull the plug on the whole thing. Own physical gold and silver and prep items.
Copper too
Wtf is ‘pull the plug’? Life goes on no matter what happens. And if everything collapses, gold won’t be worth much because there will be nothing to buy.
Jack, where did you find this fucking ray of sunshine?
Good questions Jack, your keeping up real time with one of the best
Now you guys are into reading and understanding the debt clock have you looked at it lately 1776 equals one dollar what does that mean?
If hedge funds are the most short treasury cash futures they have ever been, but are long the treasury bonds on the other side -- just because bond prices melt lower, arent these hedge funds 'hedged' being short the cash futures? WHy would they get forced out?
Real rates are still quite negative. CPI is a joke. Come on Jay “Transitory” Powell. Jack up rates and sell mbs. Make risk free saving of $ great again!
Banks will collapse, will take economy with them
@@yourdad-rq1zm nah. Fed will bail it all out with inflation
85% UST bills, 10% gold, 5% bitcoin recreates the risk free savings you're looking for since they are the best monetary debasement hedges.
I know this is odd question but would you know if my per2 retirement is safe or is it going to become insolvent? I know that you would have to answer hypothetically and not asking for financial advice fyi. Lol
Great questions! I love it when the interviewers push hard.
And then get schooled
For the first time in almost 20 years bonds have to price not just the inflation level, but inflation volatility. That's going to keep longer duration bond yields higher for longer, even if the fed doesn't keep rates higher for longer.
Wow, this was intense. Really enjoyed it.
Surprising that more people don't understand this. Jack should have been on top of US fiscal position vis a vis oil prices, shale, tax receipts and selling of TLT. It'll be very obvious in hindsight.
People need to accept that rates will stay higher for longer no matter how they want to rationalize why that won't be the case. The FED will continue giving you the middle finger, and that's a good thing in my opinion
Imho what powell wants it’s the financial economy not leading the “real economy” and lowering wealth inequality and the way to do it having a , stronger dollar and lowering financial assets and real estate .
That tool is higher rates .
If that failed gold will explode higher .
What thing people forgot is like 80% of people do not have much financial assets and so the only asset they have is the actual currency -> wages .
Regular people need high rates with lower inflation .
@sivi9741 Both the financial and real economy are out of whack because the US had a $10T monetary and fiscal stimulus to address the pandemic problem. It was way overdone, and since this awful, selfish, stupid society only cares about what will bring the most pleasure right now, that money was used to buy goods, financial assets, and for real estate speculation.
Powell knows that he messed up, and now he is trying to correct that problem. Also, the reason he kept rates too low for longer was to combat inequality because the low cost of capital and reopening of the economy created an economic boom that favored people at the bottom the most, but squeeze the crap out of the middle class with inflation not seemed since the 80s
It's not sustainable. Not with real GDP, debt and lower tax receipts.
Anyone who is not an MMT looney will realize that higher rates are NOT stimulative. So, if i get a higher yield on a 2 year, I'm going to spend all that yield into the economy? Most likely not. I'll reinvest into those higher fixed rates and keep my money out of casino asset bubbles like stocks and real estate.
Yep, I keep rolling the interest back into the next t bill auction.
You could argue it would be stimulative if the US debt to gdp ratio was much lower like late 70’s and early 80’s, heck even the 90’s, it would at least sustainably persist without crippling things but now they are stuck as F as they (Fed) helped push for an economy running on all forms of debt (govt., consumer, commercial).
Over indebted with higher rates and round the toilet it goes, weeeee, weeeee.
It is because higher rates mean higher federal deficit which they automatically borrow. They never cut spending to pay higher debt payment. They just borrow more.
This is what you can do . When core inflation hits 2% and the fed pivots DCA into "VOO SCHD QQQ" they will go up in value as inflation rises. Eventually the FED will say inflation is to high and will begin raising rates SELL VOO and put it into FDCI Ins money markets which checking/ debit priveldge it will eventually pay 5% safely and guaranteed no risk so you should not even be in the markets PERIOD. When the fed raises rates VOO SCHD QQQ will go down in value so you should not be in them. However they have done really well this go round of fed rate hikes but conventional wisdom dictates be in the money markets during rate hikes. You cant time the markets and between feb/march 2020 there was HUGE drop in VOO 306 down to 210 but that was due to covid and people panicking but it came right back up in Sept So its true you cant time markets buy you can move based on the fed movements and not have to suffer VOO dropping in value during rate hikes, you can ride it out in money markets, no need for bonds. In march of 2022 the fed started rate hikes VOO was at 397 and after 11 rate hikes its at 393. so it remained flat during the rate hikes and the money markets are now paying the magic safe 5%. the point of rate hikes is to force you to stop spending and sell VOO and put it all in money markets at the bank so do it. VOO has faired very well during rate hikes and covid, every one should be in it. Even if you just invested in VOO and went into a coma would will do fine.
Watching this again In May 2024. I used to watch it over and over when I was driving truck. I quit and came home. I watched Suits and now listening to Luke with his movie references, he reminds me of Harvey Specter of Financial world. Have him on again now that gold and silver are moving up. I love his if Powell wants to be Volcker, stand aside.
Please get him on again now that metals are going up.
Don't buy bonds at 13 year lows, you should have bought them at all time highs lol.
Interesting, but any suggestion of buying bitcoin automatically discredits guest position. Difficult times call for investment in real cash flow producing businesses.
Powell was trained as an attorney. Does he know what he's doing? What Economist is guiding Powell? Powell may be a good litigator, but not a good decision maker regarding economics.
This is what you can do . When core inflation hits 2% and the fed pivots DCA into "VOO SCHD QQQ" they will go up in value as inflation rises. Eventually the FED will say inflation is to high and will begin raising rates SELL VOO and put it into FDCI Ins money markets which checking/ debit priveldge it will eventually pay 5% safely and guaranteed no risk so you should not even be in the markets PERIOD. When the fed raises rates VOO SCHD QQQ will go down in value so you should not be in them. However they have done really well this go round of fed rate hikes but conventional wisdom dictates be in the money markets during rate hikes. You cant time the markets and between feb/march 2020 there was HUGE drop in VOO 306 down to 210 but that was due to covid and people panicking but it came right back up in Sept So its true you cant time markets buy you can move based on the fed movements and not have to suffer VOO dropping in value during rate hikes, you can ride it out in money markets, no need for bonds. In march of 2022 the fed started rate hikes VOO was at 397 and after 11 rate hikes its at 393. so it remained flat during the rate hikes and the money markets are now paying the magic safe 5%. the point of rate hikes is to force you to stop spending and sell VOO and put it all in money markets at the bank so do it. VOO has faired very well during rate hikes and covid, every one should be in it. Even if you just invested in VOO and went into a coma would will do fine.
There should be a free market of interest rates. Not a centrally controlled rate. The fallacy is thinking that a person or group of people is better than the market
I understand your perspective and agree that the technicality of the dollar being the world reserve currency allows for predictions about its behavior. However, I respectfully disagree with the notion that the dollar "rules" in an absolute sense. It is important to consider the impact of human perception. When leaders and individuals in various countries perceive the dollar as a tool for punishing and manipulating global politics through questionable means, it fosters a sense of rebellion. As a result, it is likely that the dominance of the dollar will inevitably dwindle as the world reacts to these perceived injustices.
Wondering when it will be time to buy TLT
But do you sell your gold to JPM for dollars.
If Powell were to get things contained, he'd have to tell Congress what the receipts allow and limit it to that. He would have to speak up that the spending has to be curbed, in order to maintain all fiscal responsibility.
Trying to adjust the numbers, based off of unlimited spending is a losers game.
Odd use of the term 2nd derivative. That is a calculus term referring to the derivative of the first derivative. The first derivative tells us the rate of change of displacement, i.e. velocity. The second derivative tells us the rate of change of velocity, i.e. acceleration. The other problem with his comment is that the derivative assumes one knows the expression representing the phenomena in question. I have yet to see anyone propose an actual mathematical expression that describes this topic with any validity. Is he trying to say instead apparent cause versus secondary (actual?) cause.
What's with the shifty eye thing.
I didn’t watch the video, just one question, is time to buy long bonds or not?
We are in positive feedback territory. The only way out is to balance the fed budget. (Or close.) cut spending + raise taxes.
That would be great! The government spends our money in the best and most efficient way possible anyway! Right guys
Your videos are a great resource for those who want to learn about finances!
foreigners sell UST to defend their currencies which means to sell USD to rise JPY or whatever the currency. But Selling usd should weaken it not drive it higher. If selling UST drives the rates higher and this attracts buyers it means there is demand for USD from other foreign players. The whole idea of this interview is that there is not enough demand for UST worldwide, therefore USD should weaken not rise
This is because of the Dollard Milkshake Theory (which recently ceased to be a theory)
@@drno3391 dont think so, it’s the other way around. Foreigners dumb UST not to rise dollars but to sell dollars and buy their own currency. It means 3 trillion usd hitting the market :) not foreigners chasing the dollars
I get what you are saying, and i agree that to some extent you are correct, it's only logical. But what luke didn't say, which implicitly is a condition, is that foreigner selling will drive the yield up, so it will cause the USD index to go up temporarily, because you will have a situation where inflation looks like it has troughed and you have positive real rate, relative to majority of the world right now which has negative real rate, so in a way it's not so much that USD goes up, but really that it depreciate against gold slower than everything else. However in the long run you are correct and i think Luke's core thesis is the same, that the USD will devalue, partially due to inflation partially due to less and less trade are settled in USD, and so will most fiat with the exception of a handful of nations that run trade and fiscal surplus, has energy independence and etc
@@lsb0119but look: selling 7 trillion of UST by the foreigners (CB and others) would drive the yields up as its additional supply. Who’s gonna buy it though? There is no big demand (enough balance sheet world wide)to absorb this selling plus the regular issuance Luke mentions (more supply). If the buyers are another foreigners it means demand for usd and usd up. But if they are enough buyers to meet this enormous supply then there is no problem in the first place which is the main topic discussed here by Luke
The guy is flat out wrong. There's still Ginormous demand for dollars in every single country. Russia, China and other Clown-run countries must put LIMITS on the amount of dollars their "citizens" can buy, otherwise the demand would destroy their own (crap) currencies and make a mockery out of their claims to "de-dollarize".
It's like the guy next door with a new car, new furniture, new clothes, and 5 credit cards maxed out.
Tomme Lee: Fugitive: "I don't care " -> Great Reference
Yields and oil has not even priced in a recession yet. 30 year bond is at key level from 2008 and a diagonal trend line from 2016. So these 2 trend line give a higher probability of a pull back at some point. On the COT chart you can see the bond selling started in 05/29 and has continued to sell over until today. 05/29 was also the time the dollar started to rally up. So i am assuming hedge funds shorted then and countries hold bonds started to cash out long term bonds and convert them from USD into their home currency since it was at the best conversion rate since april of 2022 (this is my take on how it started). USD and long term yields are pretty correlated at the moment.