Not what I expected - Ferrari 458 Depreciation & Buying guide
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 พ.ค. 2020
- Are you buying a Ferrari 458? Then this is the video to watch. In this buying and depreciation guide of the 458, I show you the depreciation per year and per 1000 miles driven. Furthermore, I show you how these numbers differ between the Coupe and the Spider. At the end of the video, I also show what a fair purchasing price is.
You can contact me on fourwheeltrader@gmail.com if you would like a personalized analysis.
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The video is structured in a top-down way. That means that we first have a look at the full market, including the 360 and 430, and some general price levels. After this, we will dive into the details.
Specifically, this means that the video for the Ferrari 458
is split into a few parts. We will start by having a look at the full mid-engine Ferrari depreciation curve. This gives a good indication of the 458’s position in the depreciation curve and how it relates to the one of the 360 and 430. We will also have a brief look at the 458 speciale and the apertas. In the second part, we will focus on the 458 market and figure out the depreciation per year and per 1000 miles driven. After this, we continue with the third part in which we compare these rates to some other cars I have analysed on the channel. At the end of the video, I show what a fair purchasing price is for a 458. - ยานยนต์และพาหนะ
Former Ferrari mechanic, been following ferrari values obsessively for 20 years. I'd be happy to give you my two cents. You've got something great here, keep it up
Happy to hear your thoughts. You can reach me at fourwheeltrader@gmail.com
As someone who can't afford a 458 yet... This is brilliant
Reading my mind.
I love studying your content. You are so thorough and I appreciate your knowledge! Thank you!
Thank you! Would love to continue the Ferrari trend and move on to an F12 analysis next!
I'm sure the F12 will feature on the channel.
Man! You deserve a lot more subscribers. Keep up the hard work :)
Thanks!
Fourwheel Trader - Car depreciation analysis I don’t know if it was even slightly lack of hard work though, as if it was not obvious enough. I don’t know TH-cam algorithms enough to tell you how but something else other than hard work should be explored if gaining more audiences is one of your goals. I wish all the best for your channel, it’s one of my favorites.
Agreed with Chiel!
Another insightful and great analysis!
Keep it up!
This is a fantastic video..The 458 is one of my favorite modern ferrari.
Another awesome video. Top!!!
Brilliant (as always) !
Awesome analysis!
thanks, you give one more argument to convince my wife to buy this 458 spyder ! well done. the same for the F12 will be great. MERCI.
What tool do you use to make these graphs? Your videos look amazing, I really enjoy your analyses!
I am a bit surprised. I thought the curve would have leveled but wow. I still keep looking to get another 458 Italia (not in red of course)
I was also surprised about this.
Why not in red!? It's sexy af. What colout would you buy it in?
@@mso008 i have chosen white and black.
Very interesting!! Althoug it is a Special market: but could you do a statistics about the 360 Challenge Stradale, 430 Scuderia and 458 Speciale? Thanks man!! 🙋🏻♂️👍🏻
Great video!
Yes, please do this analysis. Especially for the Speciale.
It's my favourite Ferrari ever. Gorgeous.
Great analysis as always! Would love to see a similar analysis on the Ferrari FF please.
I very much appreciate your videos . Without understanding depreciation you can not begin to understand the cost of ownership. If you added Interest Cost, Opportunity Cost, Repairs and Maintenance, Insurance and gas. Then you have a complete picture. I so much appreciate your work. Thanks again.
Just discovered your channel, awesome content! can you do an analysis on the Ferrari 550 Maranello? thanks!
Will be interesting to see the depreciation rate for the 458 over the next couple of years with the upcoming global recession...all supercar models I should think will suffer a greater downward curve. Great vid by the way!
We’re going to see hyper inflation and the collapse of the dollar. The bitcoin hodlers will be able to buy up all of the supercars and property from all of the mask wearing patsies. The “price” in usd will rocket up for all things, but that’s only going to affect the sheep.
Ferrari’s are almost recession proof. If the GFC was anything to go by, high value luxury goods don’t really fall in much value as many people seem to think
Hey I would love to see a similar video on the Ferrari FF and GTC4 Lusso
Could you please do a depreciation or appreciation analysis on Air Cooled Porsches, at least the 964 and 993? Thanks so much. Love the data!
Do the G Wagon please I think it would be very interesting
10k mark up
Great Video. What i think would be a really interesting video would be to do a comparison of average loss of value for cars with known accident damage for the super/exotic market by brand (ferrari, lambo, mclaren, porsche etc).
That's a great video idea. It requires some work but is definitely possible.
@@fourwheeltrader Issue also with small sample sizes. Its one thing to have 150 cars to look at data, but when only 5 have accident damage, it gets tough to expand out to future expectations & conclusions, which are really nice about your videos
Great analysis !!
Number of units produce and price and lease incentives should be also considered for 720 S and Astons
Do not forget cannibalism between models
Tributo kill Pista, Pista kill 488, 488 kill 458
Same with 570 S, 570 C, 600, 650, 675, 720 and now 765 !!!
One thing to remember about the 458. Most of the lower priced ones have steel replacement rotors. If it doesn't bother you not to have the original $20k ceramic discs then the lower priced ones are still great cars.
Great video
Would be interesting to see how different options could also affect value one way or another.
You should do a GEN V Viper Next!
Fascinating & nicely presented!
Curious how websites like Cargurus pricing analyses stacks up against your well thought out curves? I suspect their formulas are oversimplified and while interesting, don't include enough variables to be very good guidelines in the exotic car market.
Great Video , Can you do a video on the 488 GTB
Hi, I would be interested in the FF Market. These cars are amazing and have gone down quite fast. Maybe compared to the Lusso. Or a comparison between the 599 and F12? Looking forward to your statistics! Thanks alot!! 🚗👌🏻🙋🏻♂️
I'd love to see a video looking at the 458 Speciale market and projections
Excellent !!!...
Hey I got it right!!
Do g wagon next :D
I'm an owner of a 2008 599 GTB and would love to see you do a video on this Ferrari. Thanks
Great info! Can you review am F355 Ferrari?
I wish this guy could be a part of vinwiki
Excellent production.
I think curves aren’t flattening as fast due to the “mclaren effect”. Too many models, too soon. Even if Ferrari paces theirs out a bit more. Plus, the internet educates all of us so quickly. Even the seven year Ferrari maintenance has a limited effect on the curve. 458 is one of the best mid engine cars ever built. Will be so interesting to see the 430-458-488 curves, since 488 is “less” desirable than a 458. Great work. Thank you so much.
When i do the 488 i will update the graph :)
Can you have a look into the Maserati GranTurismo??? I would love to see a video about this car:))
People look for the spider because of the sliding back glass panel only on the spider so you can hear the sweet v8
Please the continental supersport value: right Time to buy ?
Thanks
Jean
I would like to see comparisons between Manual and Automatic-Trasnmission models. Often we can see big premiums being paid for MT and that could mean for example that buying now a 992 MT could be much better financially than PDK. The comparisons could go over several models like F430, 997, 991, M3 etc
Most my videos show a split between the manuals and the automatic boxes.
How do you find information and stuff that's cool i wanna be able to research and find information like this but for variety of subjects one being cars and so on.
"Why does the 458 spider has such a premium over the coupe than for the other models?" I suspect that is because the 458 is a hard folding roof, where the other 2 where soft tops. Looks a lot more like the coupe (i.e. better), and the driving experience with the roof up is probably much better than the 360 and 430 spiders.
Thibaut de Hollain Or more to the point Ferraris are for showing off and that is best done with the top down
Takes sodding forever to fold though v embarrassing compared to say an SLS roadster 🤔
I would also guess that it has to do with the buyer. A person in the market for a 458 is the kind of person that has a fair bit of money, but not enough to buy a brand new Ferrari. Could be that they want this one Ferrari to be their weekend car. Instead of having one drop top Ferrari, a coupe to go fast in, a gt car for holiday, etc... But you're 100% right on the folding hard top as being the primary reason.
Hi, can you do an analysis on SLS coupe and roadster and 430 scuderia
Can you do the F12 berlinetta? I'm interested in purchasing one soon and would like your type of analysis of it. Thanks!
I'm sure that the F12 will feature on the channel
The cabriolets are more expensive because they tend to have lower mileage. As fairweather cars, they are driven less, and on average have less mileage. That would help explain some of the variance in pricing.
That wouldn't be a bad explanation. However, the spiders tend to have a higher mileage than the coupes, with exception for the ones with model year 2012.
@@fourwheeltrader Interesting, these cars holding their their initial incremental cost for some reason.
Hello, how about the ‘old’ 456GT. It looks like these are going up slowly?
Hmmm! I bought a 458 2016 and it was stolen 2018, I’m now trying to find a 458 again!! But I have to pay around 5000-10 000 euros more now than four years ago!!
I am looking for a study on the 981 Porsche Boxster Spyder and what will happen with arrival of 718 Spyder
consider analyzing the dodge viper- all gen, but pref 1st generation
Good suggestion. I'm not too familiar with these cars but i received many requests for them.
The bottom has already been (in the UK). Last year I saw a few for sale at £95-99k(RHD). They are now climbing again. Early models £110 plus.
UK market can indeed show different dynamics due to the RHD availability.
Where I’m at the 458 was trading for as low as $70K three years ago. Now they’re going for $120K.
The green 458 curve would end up quite a lot higher than the 430 one, if you continue it.
A good video idea would be to compare this with 488
I think the fundamental of this analysis might be a bit off. The depreciation should be the price sold of a car with specific year model vs time.
Using the current price grouped by model year can give you a wrong impression since the older years tend to have more mileage and the older than 2012 model has a rougher dual-clutch gears. 2015 models also still have the 7 year maintenance covered, so that also gives the 2015 model more value.
Btw Love the video! Hope the feedback is helpful.
458 owner.
Looking to the values over time is indeed a better method. However, as far as i'm aware, this data is not available. The method i'm using is in essence showing the 'age premium' of the cars. Especially for new cars this method works as a good proxy. The older the car, the less good this approach works.
Hello sir could you do a video on the F8
Would you be able to send me an analysis for the 458 market in the UK ?
2 years ago 2012 was easy to find for 140,000 up to 160,000 now back to 230,000 dollars wish I got one last year
The market update includes the price changes: th-cam.com/video/IZIrWyN7P5o/w-d-xo.html
Didnt understand this AT ALL. And I think I was concentrating
Excellent video and analysis. I’m about to buy a Speciale and I’ve been tracking them for years. Looks like there is not much depreciation at all, just a flat line at around MSRP to $25,000 over MSRP. Remarkable for a 6 or 7 year old car.
Now should I buy or wait ?
360 Challenge Stradale, 430 Scuderia and 458 Speciale?
one nit is that you're comparing to current depreciation rates. a V8 vantage takes a much larger hit on years 1-2 so 5% (current) depreciation rate after a massive drop (bottoming out) might not be an apt comparison. One suggestion might be to compare %of MSRP at year 5 for a standardized mileage amount (say 10k) Good info however. Another important point to consider is that you need to remove outliers (for any vehicles with variability in accidents or low specs). It is truly hard to compare apples to apples however, so appreciate the effort.
Good points. In more recent videos the cars are grouped by age to make the comparison a bit more fair.
The 458 is the last ferrari I actually liked , yeh the v12 in the f12 812 sounds epic but i just dont like them or any of the newer v8s .
Telsa model S would be a great analysis with lots of data
There is an older video about the Model S on my channel
Fourwheel Trader - Car depreciation analysis great! Thank you! Keep up the channel, this will get very big with time.
What about the FF? Has had a model change/name change and v12/v8 option changes....analysis?
Good suggestion, they came down a lot lately.
I would like to see mercedes sls amg analysis
Could you make one of these videos on the laferrari or laferrari aperta?
Those cars are usually sold privately and not advertised. Very difficult to get data on them.
Would like a comparison between 997.1 and 997.2. Myself a 997.1 4S owner
Check out this video: th-cam.com/video/96qrLsNarSY/w-d-xo.html
How about values on the Chrysler Lebaron.
finally... bout time to buy dat speciale??
What about a Aston Martin V12s S manual?
*Which car would you like to see analysed next?*
What’s your personal favorite car?
E92 m3
Ferrari F12
@@william0147 Thanks, good suggestion!
@@MS-1994 That will be an interesting one!
Have your thoughts changed? Prices seem to be closer to $300K now for Spiders especially for certified cars.
Have a look at the most recent market update: th-cam.com/video/KuPeUvAw_m4/w-d-xo.html
subbed
Thanks! Which car would you like to see analysed next?
@@fourwheeltrader any car that has the potential to appreciate I'm interested, I also agree that 360 has reached its bottom almost
This is an amazing guide!! Can you please do W204 C63?
Pls make video of BMW 650i Convertible. Tons of data I’m sure
CLS 63 AMG PLEASE PLEASE
SLS AMG
AM Vanquish 2nd gen please?
What environment do you conduct your regressions in?
I use python
Honestly, for people who love driving, and want a car they can enjoy all the time, 2nd hand Ferrari's are not what you should go for. You can't put mileage on them, you can't park them on the street, and compared to today's mere sports cars, they aren't even considered as fast anymore. Take a C8 corvette. Say even if you pay considerably more than sticker. $75k, that's still less than anything on this list, but it'll have a full warranty, you can put 80k miles on it, and it comes with all the technology like apple carplay which I use literally every time I need to drive anywhere for more than 15 minutes. But hey, if you want to tell people, "I drive a Ferrari" yeah there are lots of moderate price options out there. Just don't use it when you really need to be somewhere.
Sure, the Corvette seems to be a great car, but in its "Stingray" model it lacks some of the appeal of a passionly engineered automobile from Italy, that makes you miss a heartbeat and makes you wake up at 5 in the morning to drive it as intented. A 430 owner told me once that he prefers less driving it, not in order to avoid depreciation or costs but because driving it is a matter of passion, a special moment, and he doesn't want to waste its fantastic purpose. I suspect that buying a used Ferrari isn't necessary a bad financial decision if you do your homeworks before. Sure, it is not for everyone. Servicing costs are expensive. However, I don't see how a mass produced Corvette could maintain its value as a well-taken care of 360 or 430 by example.
@NarrowPath And Ferrari is a Chrysler Fiat.
Cayman please! Hello from Singapore!
All the cayman generations are covered on the channel. Check it out.
McLaren 720S vs. 570S? Thanks again
There is a seperate video about the 570S on my channel. The 720S is also coming soon.
I wonder how much a 458 would be worth around 2030
You need to take into account that this is the last na v8 from ferrari. That being said we can expect less depriciation than the curve shows. The cars could literally just stay at the same price and the curve would still look like its going down. # marketfreeze
True, the older the car the less good this approach works. The depreciation per 1000 miles is perhaps more informative for cars witht this age.
@@fourwheeltrader yes that and also sometimes milage for old cars compltely doesnt matter. Sometimes it is very important to know other factors like new laws/regulations that make this car special because there will be no cars built like this or when another car comes out that basically fills the same niche that this car previously filled on its own. Like 911r that lost its value as gt3 touring manual came out. Btw what do you think about speciale prices? Are they going to dip before going back up? Or is this the low point?
No need to buy 458, especially when f12 has depreciated so much. Paying a little extra and get 4 more cylinders
That sounds like a good idea for a video :)
@@fourwheeltrader ky
@@fourwheeltrader look forward to your analysis of f12
Front engine and mid engine are very different beasts. Would be interesting to see how the depreciation curves differ between the front engine and mid engine Ferraris.
with the f12, u get a lot more weight as well and engine in the wrong spot. The design is also more controversial (think corvette?). The f12 might be worth less than the 458 in the near future, v12 gt just dont hold as well as midengine v8s historically
Holy data
Do the Bentley Continental GT Please.
Good suggestion
Things are different now huh 😁
They indeed are. This is the latest market update: th-cam.com/video/IZIrWyN7P5o/w-d-xo.html
675LT
Aventador SVJ
Mid engine corvette does not help any exotic car value.
Maserati Granturismo please :)
Good suggestion.
Mercedes Benz AMG GT (2 door version)
There is already a video about the 2 door GT S on the channel. That might be helpfull.
Where is the 2009 data?
It doesn't exist.
The depreciation analysis based on model year doesn't make sense for old cars. You compare values of model years of the same car for sale at the same moment (now) and say that in X years you lose Y money.
That is correct only for the current model that you can buy new from factory. Values of old models must be compared against different sale years - that means how the value has developed over the time. I.e. compare average asking price of a used 458 from 2020, 19, 18 and so on.
The depreciation curve based on model year will (almost) always be falling. But the curve as whole can move up or down or stay at the same spot from one year to another. (Example: a 1987-MY-car and a 1989-MY-car have values of 100t$ and 120t$ in 2019 but 110t$ and 130t$ in 2020. Based on your depreciation model the cars are depreciating but actually they are appreciating!)
I see that it is hard to get historic data for car sale values.
That's 100% correct, the older the car the less good this approach works. It shows in essence the age premium but doesn't capture a shift up or down of the full market.
@@fourwheeltrader Yes, it is especially relevant in the 360 market - probably I should comment on your 360 video and not here. The 360 is not depreciating anymore. Actually 60'000 EUR (I am in the EU market) is basically the lowest price a decent V8 Ferrari can ever get and ever got (+/- inflation). I remember 10-15 years ago a used F355 was about 60'000 EUR, now a 360 with F1 is the same value, a manual is about 80'000 EUR. Last year there were some manual 360s around 70'000 EUR on the EU market (one even at 62'000 EUR from a Ferrari dealer), now they are all sold. F430s are about 80'000 EUR as well (that matches the F355 value from 10 years ago increased with inflation). So I would say, F355&360&F430 are now at the bottom of the depreciation, there is simply no way to go down anymore. Especially the prices of F355s haven't changed the last 10 years. It's more the maintenance shape of the car that decides about the price. And to be honest, there is also not really a big way to go up for these normal Ferrari models because of the newer models coming after them.
I would say F355&360&F430 are already appreciating with the inflation. The only money you lose on them is mainly the maintenance costs (but that can be significant :) ).
7 Year Warranty finishes ---price drop---except limited cars--
Continental gt bentley
Thanks, good idea.
Older ferraris 348,328, etc
prices keep going up…
They are down from their market top, have a look at the latest mid engine ferrari market update in the ferrari playlist.