I’m a former Green Party member and Rory is basically 100% on what the green party’s strategy is. At least it was when I was a member. The greens have focused on local elections more than national elections. The greens won Brighton because they had quite a strong presence on the council and they’re hoping to replicate that across the country. They know they can’t win massively at national elections and they often just split the vote therefore they focus on a few seats they think they have a chance in. Last election I remember a lot of focus for the greens was the Isle of Wight. I’m very interested to see if it’ll work this time, if the greens win 3 seats they’ll see this as a massive win.
That's something that the third parties need to learn in the US. Work on the lower local elections instead of trying to win the presidency or a governorship
@@CashelOConnolly for the last 2 prime ministers they have reviewed the first 100 days of their government and the podcast has had different names. "Truss issues" "rishi business" I think they should call the next one "Starmergeddon"
Paywalling the largest political event of the year seems...bold. Your live stream would attract tens of thousands of avid viewers, you could sell a tonne of subscriptions in that time.
I do fully understand this argument, and it's something we obviously discussed at length in the office. I think we're just aware that if it's a public stream available to everyone we need to spend way way more time preparing and organising. We're obviously going to do the absolute best we can tonight regardless, but as it's paywalled the stakes are lower and we can use it as more of an opportunity to talk directly with the community instead of a 'proper' election broadcast. We did the maths and preparing a full broadcast would not only take days of our team's time it would also reduce our video output while we were doing so, offsetting the financial benefit of making it public unfortunately - Jack
honestly i think this podcast underestimates how much the right have been angered by the conservatives, they hate the tories more than labour because they think that the tories are literally traitorous and that they've been lied to for the past 14 years by the tories
I think that’s because they’re all left-wing or left-leaning in their personal beliefs, they probably find it very hard to comprehend that people are unhappy with the because the aren’t conservative enough. I don’t blame them though, I even find myself agreeing with a few social democratic policies these days.
@@mrsomeone846 yeah i don't really blame them either, a dissaffected right wing ex-tory voter will not vote tory at the ballot box this time around because they despise the tories so much
Results still coming in (about 60 left), but... Labour by these predictions has choked it. And that's after they took all of Wales except 4 and robbed the SNP blind. Tories managed to pull enough votes to exceed TLDR's predictions somehow Lib Dems are currently just shy of Georgina's line, but above Ben. Rory and Ben have the Reform point. All the Green estimates were off. The SNP margin for error was closer to reality than any of the predictions. They had a truly terrible night.
My greatest daydream is after the election if the LDs aren't the official opposition that enough Labor MPs switch to LD to keep the Tories from being the opposition
I really like your analysis. My only issue with the whole thing is you've ignored Plaid Cymru the entire time. Probably they will have the same vote share of the greens but campaign on the same issues as SNP but Wales.
While I like your seat numbers for conservatives that will never happen. As the podcast pointed out, people - especially older generations - are predictable when it comes to voting.
Vote Labour and we are going to be in a far worse state than even now. All mainstream parties are controlled and are taking us down the same path to ruins.
@pevebe yeh let's swap one round of right wing party of filth sleaze and liars, for a party of FAR right, racist sleaze and lies. Why are men obsessed with the far right
I'm expecting Reform to outperform expectations. One thing I remember from by-elections was a seat or two that Labour flipped after 100 years of being Tory. The thing is, the Tories lost more votes than Labour totaled. Labour's year-over-year vote count hardly changed; they just had 2/3 of Tory voters not show up. If all of those people instead voted for a single party (unlikely, of course), that party would have won.
I don't see how the greens could do much better considering how locked out of the media they are most of the time, this is one of the small windows where they really get to put their message out. I'd also say their message this time is quite different to what it has been previously, they're now seem more solidly on the left. They're pretty dependant on proportional representation being brought in to make any advances.
I like what they've been doing in terms of tactics. They've really broadened their manifesto over the years so they don't come across as eco loonies or one trick ponies. They're embracing TH-cam, Tiktok, and social media to reach a bigger proportion of the voting population as the traditional news channels and papers don't give them a look in. They've recognised that it's younger voters that care most about environmental issues and that these young voters don't follow current events in the same ways as previous generations. Rather than following the lead of their competitors they're moving in a bold new direction to appeal to those who feel abandoned by the major parties. Political ads and leafleting campaigns cost money but likes and shares are free.
Rightists call everyone 'Marxist' now, but they've been calling people socialist for longer. To them it's basically just an insult, I think. They're so far removed from the actual ideological foundations that it doesn't matter.
Nobody is still fooled by Starmer. Willfully ignorant maybe. In denial absolutely. But best wishes to all who hope to stick it out and reclaim Labour for the workers.
Very disappointed you didn't discuss the prospects of Plaid Cymru, who have more MP's in Wales than Reform, the Liberal's and the Green Party ,otherwise i enjoyed the podcast
I think you guys should do a format where you all have small whiteboards then in a 3-2-1 count, everyone reveals what they predict put down. Would be more engaging I think haha.
Great podcast as always, love watching Ben and Zac go back and forth. Also I think it’s hilarious that Zac feels so comfy at the office to be chilling in his socks while recording the podcast.
Winning Party: labour # of Labour Seats: 446 # of Tory: 99 # of Lib Dem: 70 # of Reform: 10 # of Green: 1 # of SNP: 24 Does Sunak Keep his Seat? No Does Hunt Keep his Seat? No Does Corbyn Keep his Seat? Yes Does Galloway Keep his seat? Yes Turnout: 50%
Reform will get 12-20 seats imo. The 'shy reform' factor will be very big and the younger right wing vote will be a massive swing from Tory to Reform. (Im in my early 20s and people Ive known for years as diehard tories since childhood all hate the current GOV and have flipped to reform)
Probably the same with shy Lib Dems as well due to the fact people still hate them for the coalition (although to a lesser extent). Going forward we’ll probably end up with a 3 party system once electoral reform is achieved, Labour on the left, Lib Dems in the centre and Reform on the right.
I was surprised by how similar my predictions are to Zac's! I'll just post them here for posterity: Labour 430 Tories 120 Lib Dems 50 SNP 35 Plaid 4 Reform 4 Greens 2 Independents 5 I wrote this out a few days ago, and on reflection the SNP and independent predictions are probably a bit high.
True, Reform will probably end up getting around 20-30 seats which would push the Lib Dems ahead of the Tories and make them the opposition, which would be a good thing in the long run as they want electoral reform, similar to most parties other than the Tories
@@bigships I'm not in the predictions game, but if Reform get 20 seats it would represent the biggest failure in polling history. Reform would consider five to be success, particularly if Farage was one of the five. .
Zac Zac Zac! I didn't actually write predictions myself(in part because I don't twitter), but I appreciate his shit distuber(Canadian for.. pot stirrer I think is the closest?) points especially the voter turnout numbers, Scotland, and the Torie seat share. I do think it is interesting how close the labour seat share estimates were, with the diferent tory libdem and snp seatshares. I didnt do the math but I wonder how peoples estimates would have changed if theyd done the math or, had made regional estimates and then added them up.
The SDP does run a few candidates, but I doubt they'll get any seats (and anyway, if they do, they're more aligned with Reform nowadays). But I suppose you were thinking of the SNP ;-) Anyway, I don't know if the rules would allow two parties that were standing against each other in quite a few constituencies to form a joint parliamentary party, but I doubt that either of them would.
intresting guesses on voting turnout. I think it will be over 70% because 2017 and 2019 were only 2 year gaps and people were getting fed up. we have almost a full parlement of 5 years now and a lot more people are fed up and wanting to vote
I worry you're heavily underestimating reform... The amount of media coverage they've had these past weeks is ridiculous for such a small party. In contrast I think I've seen a rep from the greens like 4 or 5 times, and I'm in a very lefty echo chamber.
Yeah blame the media! I hope Labour bring in some manner of media reform to redress the balance a bit (it would be in their interests given how heavily right wing and against them there majority of the UK media is). I reckon Greens have a decent chance of winning Bristol having been out campaigning for them today.
BTW are you looking to grow your audience or are you happy as you are? Yous can’t seriously be planning to hide behind a paywall as people channel/platform hop looking for engaging content? Give your collective head a wobble.
Small inquiry, but i think it would be cool if you guys spent a little time talking about northern Ireland again. You didn't talk at all about the resignation of Jeffrey Donaldson at the DUP, and not about the evolution of the political landscape since then. With the DUP crashing down and Sinn Fein potentially confirming their status as biggest party in NI, and Ireland as a whole.
Sinn Fein are in opposition in the Republic of Ireland, so not the biggest and at the moment they’re polling the same as Fine Gael (one of the governing parties in the ROI) and they underperformed massively in the Irish local elections so I don’t agree with them being the “biggest party” in Ireland as a whole.
@@cnd1882 they still have the largest number of seats in the Irish parliament, but I'll concede to you that their position is fragile. Still, I'm conviced that this is a fundamental topic, that TLDR really failed to cover lately
I predict it'll take you guys more than a week to release the episode with the results of your predictions. Zac will be in the office at the point you record it, but you'll still record it with less than five people.
Your predictions shock me but to each their own. I recon Greens will get four seats, Bristol Central, Brighton Pavilion, Waveney Valley & Isle of Wight West. Lib Dems will take the opposition as Reform splits the right vote. Taking over the swathes of the ultra rich southern constituencies. SNP will suffer greatly in favour of Alba and or Labour. I recon Plaid Cymru will do well in Wales but not well enough to beat Labour.
I think Jeremy Corbyn will withhold his seat, considering how his grassroot support has really backed him on every sides and since a lot of people were confused on Corbyn not running on Labour + polls showing there's no chance tories will win on their constituency will have a greater chance of people supporting him at the end and leading to him winning in the end
I hope so. He is one of the few who are saying democracy can only be rebuilt at the local level, and the bringing together of communities. It's the only way to bring power back to the people. The divisiveness among people has been deliberately manufactured, imo. There arent going to be any quick fixes, and this is really the only viable way forward, whatever ones political views are.
I think, like the Brexit vote, many pollsters are failing to factor in the effect of the usually non-voting electorate on the Reform vote. Combine a galvanised Reform voting base with general voter apathy for the main parties/complacency from Labour voters, and I think reform could do significantly better than many(even myself) give them credit for. Labour - 419 Conservatives - 82 Lib Dems - 66 SNP -35 Reform - 18 Plaid Cymru - 3 Greens - 3
Whats the UK law on publishing stuff like this on election day? Here in NZ we'd (theoretically) get in trouble for publishing anything election related on polling day (although enforcement is another question).
@@Jamal-Ahmed786Roughly Labour 40 Conservative 26 Reform 16 Liberal Democrats 11 Green 4 SNP 2 However I have adjusted the Tories up because I think Reform won't do as well in some normally safe Tory Seats and I think the tactical voting may be split in seats like mine where it is not clear enough and those predictions show a slight Liberal Democrats victory.
Labour will thrash the Tories, that´s certain. The most interesting questions are : Will Reform win any seats, Clacton I think is a given now, and they may win some in other seaside towns and possibly the UK rust belt (though Labour still have quite a lot of the White blue-collar vote, unlike the EU left parties). The other is whether the Greens will pick up any seats, in Bristol they have a decent chance, and perhaps in some other uni-constituencies. Also, there is the question as to whether Galloway and Corbyn keep their seats. It´s possible but far from certain.
One person Sir Nigel Farage in parliament is enough to cause a major shake up in the commons, no more slacking and Reform becoming a household name very quickly for future elections.
@@Minimmalmythicist they’re stuck in the same trap the Liberals were stuck in under Thorpe in the 70s, getting around 20% of the votes yet barely getting any seats (I think the liberals got less than 20)
for sure reform suffers hugely from FPTP so although they may receive a high percentage of votes Im not certain how many seats they will actually win. My guess is about 3-8
I think the MRP polls have manually adjusted too much in favour of the conservatives because they can’t believe the conservatives would be so low. My thoughts as of 10:40am on the day of election is that: Labour: ~500 Conservatives: ~70 LibDems: ~60 SNP: ~12 All other parties getting between 1-5 Edit: 23:00pm, after voting has finished, If the exit polls are correct I am incredibly disappointed, and I owe an apology to the guy who thought Reform Ltd. would get more than maximum 3 seats. Edit 2: 11:00am day after. So Reform Ltd. have 4 seats, so I wasn’t far off with that, LibDems have 71 so better than I thought, SNP on 9 seats worse than I thought. I am depressed the Tories still have 120 seats as that means they could rebuild and will still be relevant in UK politics. I am curious as to how many people were barred from voting due to the recent Tory voter ID laws.
I get that money is fun and all but having to pay to watch an election livestream seems kind of dumb ? I mean, just throw a big TH-cam/twitch stream with a LOT of viewers and that would still allow you to get a fair share of money
They said in a separate comment that it is a lot harder to host an election livestream with thousands, maybe tens of thousands of people, and it would make a lot harder for them to answer questions and stuff.
I think that you are underestimating the level of apathy out there. I don’t see tactical voting as the factor that it used to be as I reckon that with the outcome as close as it can get to a certainty: people are either going to vote for who they actively support or they will stay home and not bother. How good or bad the Tories do will not be about defections and protest votes as how many of their traditional voters just stay at home.
Credible pollsters assess there’s a 99% chance of a Labour majority and likely a massive landslide for them. Both Lib Dems and Labour will do well though.
Paywalling content that anyone could watch for free on BBC or many other news outlets is a d*** move to those that subscribe and like TLDR. I would've watched but I have no interest in paying for a magazine I'd never read. Just have the stream sponsored or with ads. Or just run it for free knowing the pull of new subscribers you'd likely get from it.
Since it's been two weeks since the election, I'm guessing the follow-up podcast going over your predictions isn't happening? Has that got something to do with the fact the results of the election highlighted how out of touch TLDR are with the general public.
Other than disagreeing on Corbyn losing his seat & thinking the reform party will get a few less seats than 10 I think I agree with Zac on most of the questions
Good program, just dissapointed that Georgina wasn't given the opportunity to speak more. She was overpowered by the men in the team, give her more a voice.
I agree more with Rory. I think in general tories are being under estimated and lib dem over estimated. Tories will get almost double the number of seats compated with lib dem I think
There is simply no point asking left wingers whether people will vote Tory or Reform. They just don't understand the psychology of a right wing voter. So I'd say, find some explicitly right wing voters and ask them what they think
27:32 completely agree with Zac - tried to vote & organise with Greens & they said, don’t need you here, come to Bristol 🤡- yeah so voted elsewhere - also very good analysis on SNP.
I've watched this channel since near the beginning, and all I say with confidence in this election is: the only person living their best lifw more than the Lib Dem Leader is Jack, suppressing the biggest grin at the end there. Thoroughly deserved, all of you 👍
UK Monarchy it Tories they upsets about it are run by Etonains yes. Avalon podcaster he super rich he better of Italy High as that 441. What Tldr news, what are you English upper class Thomas. What, I am, me Italian middle class Thomas.
Quote retweet with your predictions for a chance to win a copy of Too Long: x.com/TLDRNewsUK/status/1808496614136287366
the big one.
white socks everybody.... i can remember past history days that it was soooo not done!
I think the greens won the seats they were hoping for
why Twitter?
I think Count Binface will have a good showing in Richmond and Northallerton. His vote share will increase by infinity percent
😂Matt Parker
@@johanneskarlsson3859 To quote the band Make Believe: "One is so much more than none, than two can ever be than one."
It'll be amusing (read: infuriating) if Rishi is saved by fewer votes than Binface wins😱
Isn’t Niko omilana still running there?
Count Binface has got Kim Wilde's approval!
Forget the predictions, I just want to see Zac and Ben bicker over Ed Davey’s increasing elaborate stunts 🤣
There is almost no chaos.this.time compared to the Brexit election.
Turnout will be way lower.
I’m a former Green Party member and Rory is basically 100% on what the green party’s strategy is. At least it was when I was a member. The greens have focused on local elections more than national elections. The greens won Brighton because they had quite a strong presence on the council and they’re hoping to replicate that across the country. They know they can’t win massively at national elections and they often just split the vote therefore they focus on a few seats they think they have a chance in. Last election I remember a lot of focus for the greens was the Isle of Wight. I’m very interested to see if it’ll work this time, if the greens win 3 seats they’ll see this as a massive win.
That's something that the third parties need to learn in the US. Work on the lower local elections instead of trying to win the presidency or a governorship
Damn the predictions were way off , but Rory was the closest
Vote Starmergeddon for new podcast name.
What does this mean
@@CashelOConnolly for the last 2 prime ministers they have reviewed the first 100 days of their government and the podcast has had different names. "Truss issues" "rishi business" I think they should call the next one "Starmergeddon"
@@dralseth it’s very tabloid
@@CashelOConnolly ok
The Big Rissue was it@@dralseth
The only person who got a point for the party seat share was Zac with the LDs😂😂
Wow where they wrong...
Paywalling the largest political event of the year seems...bold. Your live stream would attract tens of thousands of avid viewers, you could sell a tonne of subscriptions in that time.
I do fully understand this argument, and it's something we obviously discussed at length in the office. I think we're just aware that if it's a public stream available to everyone we need to spend way way more time preparing and organising. We're obviously going to do the absolute best we can tonight regardless, but as it's paywalled the stakes are lower and we can use it as more of an opportunity to talk directly with the community instead of a 'proper' election broadcast. We did the maths and preparing a full broadcast would not only take days of our team's time it would also reduce our video output while we were doing so, offsetting the financial benefit of making it public unfortunately - Jack
@@TLDRpodcasts That makes sense, thanks for taking the time to reply. Hope everything goes well with the stream :)
Agreed! Shame I can’t watch it
Agreed, very odd decision.
@@joshboz6125 What's weirder is I think there above explanation is if your paying for it its okay to have less quality and put less effort in?!
honestly i think this podcast underestimates how much the right have been angered by the conservatives, they hate the tories more than labour because they think that the tories are literally traitorous and that they've been lied to for the past 14 years by the tories
True, that’s basically my view
Now reform will get the honour of being the right's hopes and dreams that ultimately become traitors in their eyes?
No that's not true they still hate Labour more than the Tories ...more likely to vote Lib Dem than Labour
I think that’s because they’re all left-wing or left-leaning in their personal beliefs, they probably find it very hard to comprehend that people are unhappy with the because the aren’t conservative enough.
I don’t blame them though, I even find myself agreeing with a few social democratic policies these days.
@@mrsomeone846 yeah i don't really blame them either, a dissaffected right wing ex-tory voter will not vote tory at the ballot box this time around because they despise the tories so much
For anyone interested in the predictions (after they finish watching) they were:
Margins of Error: L=10 C=5 LD=3 R=2 G=0 SNP=2 Turn=1
Rory. L=431 C=101 LD=67 R=2 G=3 SNP=25 Turn=66
Georgina. L=450 C=91 LD=65-68 R=1 G=3 SNP=17 Turn=65
Ben. L=450 C=98 LD=55 R=2 G=2 SNP=20 Turn=63
Zac. L=440 C=80 LD=70 R=10 G=2 SNP=35 Turn=64
Results still coming in (about 60 left), but...
Labour by these predictions has choked it. And that's after they took all of Wales except 4 and robbed the SNP blind.
Tories managed to pull enough votes to exceed TLDR's predictions somehow
Lib Dems are currently just shy of Georgina's line, but above Ben.
Rory and Ben have the Reform point.
All the Green estimates were off.
The SNP margin for error was closer to reality than any of the predictions. They had a truly terrible night.
Only guessed the libdems (70), conservatives (115) and reform (5) correctly.
My prediction:
Labour 0-650
Conservatives 0-650
Liberal Democrats 0-650
Scottish National Party 0-650
Reform 0-650
Green 0-650
My greatest daydream is after the election if the LDs aren't the official opposition that enough Labor MPs switch to LD to keep the Tories from being the opposition
Georgina looks so uncomfortable sitting there. Blink twice if you need help Georgina!
I think you guys greatly underestimated how popular Jeremy Corbyn is
The highest number of Conservative seats that would surprise me is 632, but I don't think thats what jack was asking about.
I’d be even more surprised with 650 on a Northern Ireland write-in campaign
I really like your analysis. My only issue with the whole thing is you've ignored Plaid Cymru the entire time. Probably they will have the same vote share of the greens but campaign on the same issues as SNP but Wales.
Completely agree, Plaid has been in existence for a lot longer than the Reform party
Zac was definitely playing it less safe
Tories upper end 41 to 48 seats. Low end, 3 to 23 seats. Lib Dems 67 to 80 seats. Labour? Massive.
3 low end!?!? I think that’s a bit too optimistic
ZERO SEATS!
While I like your seat numbers for conservatives that will never happen. As the podcast pointed out, people - especially older generations - are predictable when it comes to voting.
2 episodes in a week? Oh you spoil us
I guess I spoke too soon. What was that about the next episode coming out “next week”?
exit poll looking crazy for those predictions :D
Exit poll was also wrong 😂
Wow these guys are not that in touch with the wider country.
Yes they are definitely in an echo chamber.
Asides from everything, loving Georgia's Shoes today. Most swag
Georgia's cool leather shoes vs Zac's bare socks is such a funny contrast
i remember waking up to the Brexit vote and i could not believe it. I don't expect labour to get the numbers that we are thinking but they will win
Vote Labour and we are going to be in a far worse state than even now. All mainstream parties are controlled and are taking us down the same path to ruins.
@@maccagrabme reform all the way
@@pevebeHear Hear 🇬🇧➡️
@pevebe yeh let's swap one round of right wing party of filth sleaze and liars, for a party of FAR right, racist sleaze and lies.
Why are men obsessed with the far right
I don't care to make any prediction other than Count Binface will win.
It's disappointing that your live stream is behind a paywall
I'm expecting Reform to outperform expectations. One thing I remember from by-elections was a seat or two that Labour flipped after 100 years of being Tory. The thing is, the Tories lost more votes than Labour totaled. Labour's year-over-year vote count hardly changed; they just had 2/3 of Tory voters not show up. If all of those people instead voted for a single party (unlikely, of course), that party would have won.
"a Georgina smile" gave me a giggle.
You pay walled your biggest event by £20?! Ahahhaha
I don't see how the greens could do much better considering how locked out of the media they are most of the time, this is one of the small windows where they really get to put their message out. I'd also say their message this time is quite different to what it has been previously, they're now seem more solidly on the left. They're pretty dependant on proportional representation being brought in to make any advances.
I like what they've been doing in terms of tactics. They've really broadened their manifesto over the years so they don't come across as eco loonies or one trick ponies. They're embracing TH-cam, Tiktok, and social media to reach a bigger proportion of the voting population as the traditional news channels and papers don't give them a look in. They've recognised that it's younger voters that care most about environmental issues and that these young voters don't follow current events in the same ways as previous generations. Rather than following the lead of their competitors they're moving in a bold new direction to appeal to those who feel abandoned by the major parties. Political ads and leafleting campaigns cost money but likes and shares are free.
Well they did pretty well.
@@highvoltage7797 yes, I am very happy with how they did. They concentrated on seats they thought they could win and achieved their goal.
Do people think Starmer is socialist? He seems like a blue man in a red tie to me
Rightists call everyone 'Marxist' now, but they've been calling people socialist for longer. To them it's basically just an insult, I think. They're so far removed from the actual ideological foundations that it doesn't matter.
He said he was a socialist the other day. I’m a bit unsure but let’s see what he’s like when he’s in power?
He said he was a socialist the other day. I’m a bit unsure but let’s see what he’s like when he’s in power?
Nobody is still fooled by Starmer. Willfully ignorant maybe. In denial absolutely. But best wishes to all who hope to stick it out and reclaim Labour for the workers.
Very disappointed you didn't discuss the prospects of Plaid Cymru, who have more MP's in Wales than Reform, the Liberal's and the Green Party ,otherwise i enjoyed the podcast
I think you guys should do a format where you all have small whiteboards then in a 3-2-1 count, everyone reveals what they predict put down. Would be more engaging I think haha.
Great podcast as always, love watching Ben and Zac go back and forth. Also I think it’s hilarious that Zac feels so comfy at the office to be chilling in his socks while recording the podcast.
My only question is if there will be more Labour/Co-operative MPs than Tory MPs.
Winning Party: labour
# of Labour Seats: 446
# of Tory: 99
# of Lib Dem: 70
# of Reform: 10
# of Green: 1
# of SNP: 24
Does Sunak Keep his Seat? No
Does Hunt Keep his Seat? No
Does Corbyn Keep his Seat? Yes
Does Galloway Keep his seat? Yes
Turnout: 50%
Does Count Binface win a seat?
@@hdruk1 count bin face?
@@jbrooks1358One of the candidates challenging Sunak’s seat is our intergalactic lord and savior, Count Binface.
I thought the red jacket guy and glasses guy were same person
Lol I thought that for a while. They have very similar voices.
Lol I thought that for a while. They have very similar voices.
Reform will get 12-20 seats imo. The 'shy reform' factor will be very big and the younger right wing vote will be a massive swing from Tory to Reform. (Im in my early 20s and people Ive known for years as diehard tories since childhood all hate the current GOV and have flipped to reform)
Definitely a shy voter factor, also you have to get the filthy rats to actually vote.
Probably the same with shy Lib Dems as well due to the fact people still hate them for the coalition (although to a lesser extent).
Going forward we’ll probably end up with a 3 party system once electoral reform is achieved, Labour on the left, Lib Dems in the centre and Reform on the right.
Same 7-18 is my expectation for Reform.
@olivergille8305
A horrifying thought. I hope not
@@tabbymoonshine5986Yes, because their Left wing, open border future has been looking so rosy so far...
Where's Nadia?
I was surprised by how similar my predictions are to Zac's! I'll just post them here for posterity:
Labour 430
Tories 120
Lib Dems 50
SNP 35
Plaid 4
Reform 4
Greens 2
Independents 5
I wrote this out a few days ago, and on reflection the SNP and independent predictions are probably a bit high.
Your podcasts imo are the best content from TLDR. Huge missed opportunity to put nothing out two weeks after the election!
if I buy the (Digital) Premium Edition, does that still work
Great podcast! (not that i’ve watched it yet but i’m sure it is)
It is,vote Labour for a better future ✌🏻🌹🚩
@@CashelOConnolly Labour is already winning, vote Green💚 to save Mother Earth♻🌳🌍
I think you’re all incorrect on the Reform vote. I reckon they’ll be the biggest surprise of the night
Maybe, but anything above four seats would be a surprise under first past the post, even if they get more votes than the Lib Dems..
True, Reform will probably end up getting around 20-30 seats which would push the Lib Dems ahead of the Tories and make them the opposition, which would be a good thing in the long run as they want electoral reform, similar to most parties other than the Tories
@@bigships I'm not in the predictions game, but if Reform get 20 seats it would represent the biggest failure in polling history. Reform would consider five to be success, particularly if Farage was one of the five. .
@@zivkovicable I’m pretty sure 20 is the highest prediction for Reform, and will almost be certain if they get 23% as a few polls predicted
@@bigships even with 23% they suffer from FPTP so that might not equate to many seats as a result
Based Zac
Could the Raving Loony Party form the next Government.
Official Monster Raving Loony Party coalition with Count Binface.
Still a better government than the Tories.
Should have asked the panel who are they voting for
I just voted Reform, not so much for now but rather for the future, five years from now.
Reform will be alot higher than people think
Zac Zac Zac! I didn't actually write predictions myself(in part because I don't twitter), but I appreciate his shit distuber(Canadian for.. pot stirrer I think is the closest?) points especially the voter turnout numbers, Scotland, and the Torie seat share.
I do think it is interesting how close the labour seat share estimates were, with the diferent tory libdem and snp seatshares. I didnt do the math but I wonder how peoples estimates would have changed if theyd done the math or, had made regional estimates and then added them up.
I want to see a swingometer...needs a swingometer.
You reckon Sunak called the election because of the EU elections and he felt left out? 🤣
If the Lib Dems get within 20 seats of the Tories would the Lib Dems be able to make an aliance with the SDP to form the official opposition?
the second largest party is automatically the opposition
The SDP does run a few candidates, but I doubt they'll get any seats (and anyway, if they do, they're more aligned with Reform nowadays). But I suppose you were thinking of the SNP ;-)
Anyway, I don't know if the rules would allow two parties that were standing against each other in quite a few constituencies to form a joint parliamentary party, but I doubt that either of them would.
intresting guesses on voting turnout. I think it will be over 70% because 2017 and 2019 were only 2 year gaps and people were getting fed up. we have almost a full parlement of 5 years now and a lot more people are fed up and wanting to vote
I agree. After so many unelected PMs this parliament, I think we're all itching to get out and vote.
I worry you're heavily underestimating reform... The amount of media coverage they've had these past weeks is ridiculous for such a small party. In contrast I think I've seen a rep from the greens like 4 or 5 times, and I'm in a very lefty echo chamber.
Yeah blame the media! I hope Labour bring in some manner of media reform to redress the balance a bit (it would be in their interests given how heavily right wing and against them there majority of the UK media is). I reckon Greens have a decent chance of winning Bristol having been out campaigning for them today.
BTW are you looking to grow your audience or are you happy as you are? Yous can’t seriously be planning to hide behind a paywall as people channel/platform hop looking for engaging content? Give your collective head a wobble.
Small inquiry, but i think it would be cool if you guys spent a little time talking about northern Ireland again. You didn't talk at all about the resignation of Jeffrey Donaldson at the DUP, and not about the evolution of the political landscape since then. With the DUP crashing down and Sinn Fein potentially confirming their status as biggest party in NI, and Ireland as a whole.
Way to go Ireland. One of the few countries with any morality that is left in a world that is otherwise bankrupt.
Sinn Fein are in opposition in the Republic of Ireland, so not the biggest and at the moment they’re polling the same as Fine Gael (one of the governing parties in the ROI) and they underperformed massively in the Irish local elections so I don’t agree with them being the “biggest party” in Ireland as a whole.
@@cnd1882 they still have the largest number of seats in the Irish parliament, but I'll concede to you that their position is fragile. Still, I'm conviced that this is a fundamental topic, that TLDR really failed to cover lately
I predict it'll take you guys more than a week to release the episode with the results of your predictions. Zac will be in the office at the point you record it, but you'll still record it with less than five people.
Your predictions shock me but to each their own.
I recon Greens will get four seats, Bristol Central, Brighton Pavilion, Waveney Valley & Isle of Wight West.
Lib Dems will take the opposition as Reform splits the right vote. Taking over the swathes of the ultra rich southern constituencies. SNP will suffer greatly in favour of Alba and or Labour. I recon Plaid Cymru will do well in Wales but not well enough to beat Labour.
I think Jeremy Corbyn will withhold his seat, considering how his grassroot support has really backed him on every sides and since a lot of people were confused on Corbyn not running on Labour + polls showing there's no chance tories will win on their constituency will have a greater chance of people supporting him at the end and leading to him winning in the end
I hope so. He is one of the few who are saying democracy can only be rebuilt at the local level, and the bringing together of communities. It's the only way to bring power back to the people. The divisiveness among people has been deliberately manufactured, imo. There arent going to be any quick fixes, and this is really the only viable way forward, whatever ones political views are.
Yeah Corbyn won
I'm with Zac on these predictions
I am not spending £20 for exclusive access to live coverage when I can watch sky news lol
then don't
I think, like the Brexit vote, many pollsters are failing to factor in the effect of the usually non-voting electorate on the Reform vote. Combine a galvanised Reform voting base with general voter apathy for the main parties/complacency from Labour voters, and I think reform could do significantly better than many(even myself) give them credit for.
Labour - 419
Conservatives - 82
Lib Dems - 66
SNP -35
Reform - 18
Plaid Cymru - 3
Greens - 3
The reform manifesto: 43:28
I hope GG gets kicked out
Whats the UK law on publishing stuff like this on election day? Here in NZ we'd (theoretically) get in trouble for publishing anything election related on polling day (although enforcement is another question).
Well TLDR are an entertainment platform not proper journalists… so can do what they like I suppose
@@jamessmithson-br7rm So is John Oliver but he couldn't air his episode 2 weeks ago in the UK
The front page of every paper today is election related... There is no law against it
we do what we want m8
@@teelo12000 this isn't "airing" in the UK, so no problem
John smith - he may have died suddenly but he was well loved and was Scottish.
Just been a polling station full of what looked like 40 people under 25 all singing "oooo Nigel farage" crazy
Fortunately I got to the polling station before anyone else
Sure, that sounds true.
This is why I fell Reform will surprise. There are so many Reform voters that pollsters won't even realise exist.
I would love that to be true lol.
@@_2trueI think that. I'm so worried about it
Pffff hypocritical. Why do I feel like one will play surprised tonight...
Labour 438 Conservative 132 Liberal Democrats 26 SNP 22 Reform 7 Plaid 4 Green 2
I just have a sneaky feeling that the Tories will just cling on in lots of marginals but I would not be surprised for it to be as low as 80.
@@Idk-ys7rtwhat data is that prediction based on?
I reckon thats the best we can hope for. I wish tories got 0 seats lol
@@Jamal-Ahmed786Roughly Labour 40 Conservative 26 Reform 16 Liberal Democrats 11 Green 4 SNP 2
However I have adjusted the Tories up because I think Reform won't do as well in some normally safe Tory Seats and I think the tactical voting may be split in seats like mine where it is not clear enough and those predictions show a slight Liberal Democrats victory.
So, my seat would swing Liberal Democrats with that prediction but I think the Labour/Liberal Democrats vote will be more split than shown.
Wow, I didn’t expect them to be so out of touch!
Labour will thrash the Tories, that´s certain. The most interesting questions are : Will Reform win any seats, Clacton I think is a given now, and they may win some in other seaside towns and possibly the UK rust belt (though Labour still have quite a lot of the White blue-collar vote, unlike the EU left parties).
The other is whether the Greens will pick up any seats, in Bristol they have a decent chance, and perhaps in some other uni-constituencies.
Also, there is the question as to whether Galloway and Corbyn keep their seats. It´s possible but far from certain.
One person Sir Nigel Farage in parliament is enough to cause a major shake up in the commons, no more slacking and Reform becoming a household name very quickly for future elections.
@@maccagrabme they´ll get a fair few votes, though probably very few MPs
@@Minimmalmythicist they’re stuck in the same trap the Liberals were stuck in under Thorpe in the 70s, getting around 20% of the votes yet barely getting any seats (I think the liberals got less than 20)
for sure reform suffers hugely from FPTP so although they may receive a high percentage of votes Im not certain how many seats they will actually win. My guess is about 3-8
This isn't a real TLDR podcast, nobody is wearing short pants
Not to brag, but I predicted 410 seats for Labour and they got 411, and I predicted 5 for Reform (they got 5)...
I think the MRP polls have manually adjusted too much in favour of the conservatives because they can’t believe the conservatives would be so low.
My thoughts as of 10:40am on the day of election is that:
Labour: ~500
Conservatives: ~70
LibDems: ~60
SNP: ~12
All other parties getting between 1-5
Edit: 23:00pm, after voting has finished, If the exit polls are correct I am incredibly disappointed, and I owe an apology to the guy who thought Reform Ltd. would get more than maximum 3 seats.
Edit 2: 11:00am day after. So Reform Ltd. have 4 seats, so I wasn’t far off with that, LibDems have 71 so better than I thought, SNP on 9 seats worse than I thought. I am depressed the Tories still have 120 seats as that means they could rebuild and will still be relevant in UK politics.
I am curious as to how many people were barred from voting due to the recent Tory voter ID laws.
Reform 20 seats easy
@@pevebe HAHAHA
@@Thought_Processing_ 🤩🤩
@@pevebe wait are you being serious?
@@Thought_Processing_ 😉😉
I get that money is fun and all but having to pay to watch an election livestream seems kind of dumb ? I mean, just throw a big TH-cam/twitch stream with a LOT of viewers and that would still allow you to get a fair share of money
I'm guessing they want to kickstart their magazine.
@@bearcubdaycareI’m guessing this won’t do the trick
They said in a separate comment that it is a lot harder to host an election livestream with thousands, maybe tens of thousands of people, and it would make a lot harder for them to answer questions and stuff.
Zac makes the best points imo 😌
I think that you are underestimating the level of apathy out there. I don’t see tactical voting as the factor that it used to be as I reckon that with the outcome as close as it can get to a certainty: people are either going to vote for who they actively support or they will stay home and not bother. How good or bad the Tories do will not be about defections and protest votes as how many of their traditional voters just stay at home.
I’ve bought the magazine, how do I access the livestream?
Hernandez Paul Hall Margaret Clark Kimberly
Good luck reform. Any seat and any votes are excellent, tell libcon to do one.
Im going with the council election results where the Tories got caned but not entirely by Labour. Labour may need the LDs to govern.
That’d only be happen if Reform makes major inroads into the red wall which is a possibility
If you're confident I'd bet on it. Odds labour don't get a majority is massive
Credible pollsters assess there’s a 99% chance of a Labour majority and likely a massive landslide for them. Both Lib Dems and Labour will do well though.
anything more than 60 seats for the tories will be a victory for them
As a brexit voter can't wait to see the back of them. Reform only for me.
@@maccagrabme. First Brexit, now Reform? Oh dear!
There is no such thing as a super majority.
Paywalling content that anyone could watch for free on BBC or many other news outlets is a d*** move to those that subscribe and like TLDR. I would've watched but I have no interest in paying for a magazine I'd never read. Just have the stream sponsored or with ads. Or just run it for free knowing the pull of new subscribers you'd likely get from it.
I bought one. But I didn’t get anything can you help?
Zac thinks he is a bit too clever.
I had a go at predicting the seat numbers yesterday, I went for: Labour 439, Tory 114, Lib Dem 48, SNP 17, Reform 4, Green 3, Others 25
Reform only 4??
@@MrJojo-il2fy welcome to first past the post
Since it's been two weeks since the election, I'm guessing the follow-up podcast going over your predictions isn't happening? Has that got something to do with the fact the results of the election highlighted how out of touch TLDR are with the general public.
Newest podcast out now lol
just bought the toolong, digital version:)
how long will it take i get it guys?
+ i hope to join the live stream later this evening
It has to be a "premium copy", whatever that means
@@JakubS well i got the unlisted video to their stream but I still dont have access to the too long material.
@@Mrcheekymonkeyisback they haven't written the newspaper yet
Other than disagreeing on Corbyn losing his seat & thinking the reform party will get a few less seats than 10 I think I agree with Zac on most of the questions
Good program, just dissapointed that Georgina wasn't given the opportunity to speak more. She was overpowered by the men in the team, give her more a voice.
I loved some of Zacks predictions, even though I didn't agree with them all 😅, I think I was most in line with some of Ben's predictions 😊
I propose Larry for PM and Lord Buckethead for Chancellor.
I think the extent to which the right are angry with the Tories is being underestimated. These voters are making emotional not pragmatic choices.
I agree more with Rory. I think in general tories are being under estimated and lib dem over estimated. Tories will get almost double the number of seats compated with lib dem I think
There is simply no point asking left wingers whether people will vote Tory or Reform. They just don't understand the psychology of a right wing voter. So I'd say, find some explicitly right wing voters and ask them what they think
27:32 completely agree with Zac - tried to vote & organise with Greens & they said, don’t need you here, come to Bristol 🤡- yeah so voted elsewhere - also very good analysis on SNP.
I've watched this channel since near the beginning, and all I say with confidence in this election is: the only person living their best lifw more than the Lib Dem Leader is Jack, suppressing the biggest grin at the end there.
Thoroughly deserved, all of you 👍
UK Monarchy it Tories they upsets about it are run by Etonains yes. Avalon podcaster he super rich he better of Italy High as that 441. What Tldr news, what are you English upper class Thomas. What, I am, me Italian middle class Thomas.