Polls Predict Worst Conservative Loss In A Century & French Election Takes A ‘Peculiar’ Turn
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 26 มิ.ย. 2024
- How worried should Labour be about voter apathy? What is 'taxtopia'? Why is Liz Truss being brought up in the French election?
Join Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell for the latest episode of The Rest Is Politics, where they answer all these questions and more.
00:00 Intro
02:36 Latest in UK General Election
14:36 Return of the far right
17:15 What is the Tories 'Taxtopia' defence?
26:10 The incredible news in the French election
40:14 Alastair tired to chase down Viktor Orbán at the Euro's
44:57 The AFD in Germany have crushed the ruling party
53:33 Politics and football
56:10 Outro
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I do love how Rory never assumes understanding. He always makes sure you're keeping pace and get the background
Are people bored with politics or are they really bored with the way politics is done ?
For what it's worth, I sick to death of hearing politicians bang on about the other the parties rather than talk to me about what they are going to do!!!!
The activist press has a fair bit of blame to account for. Or rather the people that consume it without scrutiny.
This, I want politics to go back of being BORING again
It feels like Parliament and the politicians of all colours are in a race to the bottom, dragging the country with them… I want to see honesty, integrity and service come to the fore.
and then when elected, do non of it
L;;;&,
THIS is how you engage in politics. My 12 year old daughter follow your podcast, and we have bonded around you two. As a late birthday present I got her BOTH of your latest books. I have not hears ONE WORD about Kardassions or this love-program whatever its called for TWO WEEKS. Now it's all about elections and about the far right in Italy and France... SHE IS 12 YEARS OLD!!! What have you done?!?
As someone who is currently 14, I too was interested in politics at 12, and your daughter being so as well is incredible
Speaking from my own experiences - you're never too young to learn about, or to be interested in, or to be passionate about, these things; as long as the adults around you treat you with the same respect that they'd show to somebody their own age, rather than treating you as a child. You evidently are one of those adults, and I know you and your daughter will share an unshakeable bond as long as you're both around, thanks to the way you've approached this. I know because my dad and I are still inseparable, and probably always will be...for any parents out there watching or reading, this is how you should treat your children. :)
The problem with Alastair's point about labour trying to convince me that it's not all over is that a lot of people are voting other parties for good reasons and Labour just pulling the "if you don't vote for us, you will get the Tories" card doesn't cut it on the issues people care about.
Well said. People are free to vote for parties that actually represent their beliefs and in a much closer election they might hold their nose and vote Labour to keep the Tories out, but they shouldn't be bullied into doing so.
I genuinely cannot see a single legitimate reason to vote Reform
On most issues Labour are the Tories.
If Labour get in then inflation will be 2% instead of 11% how lucky are they?.
@@dragonfly6908 the point of the fixed terms parliament act was to remove a built-in advantage the party of government has, namely deciding the date of the election . So Sunak miscalculated there.
Inflation was always going to come down because the figure is based on a rolling average of the last twelve months and it has been 12 months since the last big jump. So it's a trick, which your media should be making you aware of.
The absolute chaos and noise since Johnson, up against a calm grown-up managerial approach make Labour an attractive alternative.
People are sick and tired of 'shock jock' politics.
More Thatcherism is definitely the answer. No doubt. An ideology that does not work for the majority and is the root cause of every problem plaguing Britain today is just what is needed.
Speak for yourself not the country
@jonathanfell688 - Calm and grown up? No. They will tax and tax us. Their election promises will cost us billions. The inordinate amount of money Ed Milland will spend on the virtue signalling that is so called green energy (and totally unsustainable) will make not difference to the world's carbon emissions. Starmer has flip flopped and lied and lied.
@@farzanamughal5933 I think he can quite confidently say he is speaking for the country(s). I won't be voting Labour but I completely agree with him
@@farzanamughal5933The polls suggest that the people are generally in agreement with him.
I don’t know anyone who’s voting Labour - and we’ve ALL voted Labour in the past.
What we desperately need is Proportional Representation.
Been loving the live podcasts from the past few weeks. Could I suggest stating the recording date for these main episodes in your intro? It would help provide context and relevance, especially for time-sensitive topics.
very much agree with this. like a "first broadcast on" feature
They have to and must be absolutely RINSED this election. Nothing is for granted. VOTE THE TORIES OUT.
We are, everyone with a brain is voting Reform!
.......vote Reform get Labour. It will be amusing when Labour get in and all the people who voted Reform now have the Labour Party elected along with all the policies that they don't want, open borders etc. 😁
@@dragonfly6908 We have open borders with the tories, and the net zero scam, so whats the difference if Labour get in? At least the left cant blame the right for the mess anymore. Its time to stop tribal voting for the corrupt partnership of CON/Lab, or at least start the process.
I'm sorry but Alastair is no better than the Tories saying "if you vote for Reform you get Labour". If Labour wants the votes of young people they need to inspire them, not convince them it's not all over. If the Greens, Lib Dems etc have policy they support they should vote for those parties. If Labour wants to convince them otherwise, they need to talk about issues like wealth inequality, public ownership, housing and other issues that are key to this demographic.
.........and people lounging about on benefits
20th June 2024
Dear Rory and Alastair,
I am 73 years old. I am voting Labour. My first vote was in 1970 and I have always followed every GE closely. I live in the new Waveney Constituency, previously the preserve of Richard Bacon and Dan Poulter. Both were gigantically safe Tory seats. As of today, I have seen precisely ZERO “Vote Conservative” signs displayed! Yes, I have seen two or three “Vote Green” signs, but exactly nothing otherwise. That’s all the way from Ipswich in Suffolk to Cromer in Norfolk. NOTHING! Nothing at all.
I know dozens of lifelong Tory voters. NONE of them intend to vote Tory. Nobody has any intention of singing small on this matter. They are angry and pissed off. They are furious with Bojo, Truss, and Sunak. This is primarily a “farming” area. Speaking to genuine Farmers (at all levels of Farming) they are not shy about proclaiming that they have lost about 90% of their income. Markets have vanished! Seasonal labourers do not exist! EU grants, subsidies, and compensation measures have evaporated!
All of the TV and Media outlets are basically saying the same thing- we just don’t know and 40-odd % of voters are as yet undecided.
No, they’re not! Only a tiny sliver of voters will come out for the Tories. They’ve got to go! They have to pay for Partygate, PPE, and Truss/Johnson ballsups. Whether you like it or not, Sunak is NOT regarded as a Patriotic Englishman!
The vast bulk of ordinary Tory voters are against the Tories now right across the country. In this Waveney constituency, virtually nobody is FOR the Tories. There is no love for Labour, Greens, Reform, or LD. Sunak was fond of saying that he was determined to “Deliver what the people want”. He’s done it, at last!
People want a GE to kick the Tories out!
Farmers seemed to be very keen on Brexit at the time. Fishermen have access to a captive market that sorely needs brain food.
Vote labour and you are voting for those who sold you the lie about Palestine and believe a genocide of innocents is fine, classist and think it's fine to drop 1 bomb (worth $3 million a piece) on human beings. Get an education please - btw, I am a well informed, seeking of truth and I just happen to be age 78! Born and bred in England.
Well said! I'm nearly your age, live in Canada, and I've registered to vote in my old home town, I feel so strongly about it!
Farmers and fishermen who supported Brexit must’ve been really dense to not realise how directly Brexit would affect them and their business. I used to feel sorry for the working class, but turns out they actually do lack more than a few brain cells compared to the others.
Google Labour 25 and see what you are voting for.
The more I analyse this upcoming UK election, the more I’m glad Australia has two things:
1. Compulsory voting
2. Preferential voting
There’s no fear of things like protest votes, because people’s votes still count to the end, and extremists can’t win seats because everyone has to turn up to vote - the country gets its preferred government.
How many Australians are satisfied and happy with their government though? Still not even close to a majority
This is what concerns me. The Australian voting system is prima facie hugely superior, but has it actually provided better governments? I guess those governments do have better democratic mandates (for repellent illiberalism)? Or do I read them wrong?
I've always voted but in what universe have our politicians got the slightest right to compel anyone to vote for them?
@@sirsurnamethefirstofhisnam7986 the point is more people see voting for other parties which is a very good thing. The rise of the teals is a direct punishment to the Liberals, who look like they’re not going to learn a lesson. The Aus system allows people to vote for other parties yet carry their vote into the final selection of the candidate.
@@redemptivepete you have a democratic duty to turn up and get your name marked off - that’s a small responsibility to keep the country from being like the US or UK where governments get elected without truly representing the will of the people.
Stop the Tories. vote
"Stop the Tories. vote" - Isn't your post contradictory (and tautological) if the people you seek to inspire vote Tory?
@@johnbarrett915 I think he was going to write 'Stop the Tories, vote Conservative'.
The comment is the address of a tactical voting website.
@@gourkernow5694 both, TH-cam blocks URLs
@@VaucluseVanguardnope
Well done Rory….that’s EXACTLY what I and a lot of my Conservative friends have been saying ever since he became PM…. Claim the centre ground…back to the Ken Clarkes, Domenic Grieves, David Gaulks etc etc…that’s where the mass of traditional Conservative voters always have been! It’s such a mistake to think the Conservative voters are where the Party members are…they aren’t rattled about immigration or ‘Woke’ politics; they’re worried about child poverty, the care system, the NHS, the cost of living, the fact that the standard of living is less than it was in 2010, library closures etc etc. They look at Labour and see that people like you and the MP’s I listed about would be more in tune with them.
It’s not so much that Labour have beaten the Tories (because you can’t honestly call the present government Conservative any more) it’s that the Tories are committing suicide. You go into a pub or a church or any social event and folk will confirm over and over again what I’m telling you.
There’s a relatively small number of very instinctive very right wing (bigoted imho) people in this country who are being courted by Reform and the Tories…and Nigel is a natural populist leader who is going to be far more a leader than Rishi and than rabble of Tory MP’s will ever be; and one more controversial but I’m afraid honest point…Nigel is white and Rishi, Suella, Pritti etc aren’t; and that makes a difference I’m afraid, whether you like it or not. I abhor it, but it’s the elephant in the room where Reform and the Tories are living.
Need to correct Rory on his analysis of Labours spending plans. They didn't say no more borrowing, they said no more borrowing for DAY-TO-DAY EXPENSES BY THE END OF PARLIAMENT, and have allowed a lot of space to borrow to invest!
They may not be about to dump tens or hundreds of billions into investment at once, sure, but it is nothing like then being "fiscally conservative" in the way described, rather it's a hybrid keynesian model which aims to use coherent long term strategy and public investment to encourage private industry to allign their goals and contribute without risk.
That's not fiscally conservative, its just good financial strategy.
I wish they would make that clearer for those of us somewhere on the left, though I understand why they're minimising a lot of left-leaning talk especially when it comes to the economy.
Their manifesto promises 1 third of the investment than the tories or lib dems. 0.2% of gdp per annum. We're reentering austerity with even less economic backing from the private sector. Noone wants that, and the country will be lost to the rising populist right soon after they implement their plans. No Hope.
I'd correct him on his analysis of Labour being "socially liberal" too. Woke, left-wing identitarianism is much closer to authoritarian than liberal.
Unfortunately they have a second commitment on debt falling by the end of the parliament, which is effectively bounding of the first. If they are to meet both commitments, they can't borrow to invest much either. Preston discussed recently on Rest is Money podcast.
@@simondehaas8784 To get debt falling as a percentage of gdp in a world of low economic growth, that means either buckling the trend or realising low deficits aren't enough to drastically drop debt to gdp, we need a surplus by 2031-32
The Tory Party 1834 - 2024 RIP
Gone but never forgiven, they will be gladly missed by so many.
Rory, why is a Brexit-voter wanting to get closer to Europe?
Why did your mother vote against our membership in the EU then?
Having you right there in Westminster at the time, she would have known that Johnson's promises and lies were all rubbish.
It's a good point about people not actually watching the debates. I haven't watched any of them either, but I do like to listen to you two unpick them for me. I have, however, watched their long format interviews on LBC. I think I prefer to hear them put forward their ideas calmly and clearly, without all the the conflict and bravado.
Debates are usually nonsense as everything is rushed & nothing new is said. Lbc isnt much better as the presenters & listeners are so right wing. I think channel 4 do better when they have a special debating one issue ie immigration or cost of living. Newsnight are good too.
Sky News announced some of their biggest viewing figures ever. So which is it? Fewer people watching the debates or record viewing figures?
@@bobtahoma it's record viewing figures. the people who watch this podcast are not the average voter.
This is my preference. I much prefer long-form conversation without journalists constantly interrupting them.
I've found the debates to be good comedy relief to be honest.
In 1993, the Conservative Party of Canada went from government to three seats in parliament. It happens.
Young people should still vote for Greens, Lib Dems or Independents as people cannot let Labour off the hook in anyway. They have to earn our vote , and they simply do not deserve it.
It's crazy that environment isn't right at the top of everyone's agenda. It's just so short sighted. How is this situation even possible. You might imagine this scenario in 1986 but now?
Labour are going to build thousands of new homes surely we are running out of brown field sites?. Maybe Labour will see nothing wrong with turning Derbyshire into a giant Council estate. 😬
Another great conversation. Thank God that there are still some influential adults around
The people stuck in the conservative social media bubble have no idea the bubble is tiny as F
The EU elections showed a different picture.
Maybe dont mix up conservative with Torie?
I love it that American Independence Day is the day Britain declares its "independence" from the Tories. The irony, like the tea, is delicious.
Welcome to the chains of The Liebour Government.
Austerity is a major reason for the rise of the far right… shame Rory denies that austerity was negative.
Rory and Alistair appear to be in deep denial that their centrist globalism is responsible for much of the anger we have now.
Not the insanity of the far lefts mass immigration obsession and hatred of their own country and people? 🤔
On Rory's point about politically engaged people not watching the debates between leaders, or manifesto launches: it's because they aren't exciting, they don't say anything and they don't engage in a grown up way on the issues or policy discussions. These things are designed for messaging and soundbites and that is boring when you've heard it all before. It might be useful to get the message across to a wider audience though, so I wouldn't say all voters are getting the "meta view" of the election, instead of the on the ground view.
I am probably one of those kinds of people, and I find it much more interesting to listen to commentary like this podcast, or analysis from say the IFS or other think tanks on the actual policy.
Labour haven't specifically ruled out invading France or adopting the Australian dollar as the national currency. Should we be worried?
So much for fighting for every vote. Looks like the expat antipodean Francophobe community is going to be seriously under-represented in that case.
If someone asks Starmer directly and he refuses to say no, then yes we should be worried.
@@SpudNickleson-im7is Well I would refuse to answer as well - it's a frigging stupid question. Rather like saying that because Labour haven't specifically said that they will not tax fresh air, that means that they will tax fresh air. And if you are going to have a go at Starmer for not answering the odd question you would of course never vote for Sunak who never answers a question - ever!
Public polls should be banned during election campaigns, as they are in France. It makes elections about issues, not polls and tactical voting.
Outside the UK polls would do it. And that would be 2nd hand and untrustworthy whilst influencing allsorts
You couldn't ban polls, you could only ban them being made public. So those with money and influence would still have access to them as they could pay for them to be conducted - hedge funds, political parties, wealthy individuals etc. You would also have endless rumours and speculation on social media etc, with no way of knowing if they were true or not.
Totally agree
@@mellowmarkable as I said, polls should not be public. They influence voters in a negative way. It doesn't matter if the parties, or anyone else, conduct them privately. The point is that during the 6 week campaign, making them public has a significantly negative effect on the result.
@@MabDarogan2 Cluelessness and electoral illiteracy.
Alastair - that figure of 50% regularly avoiding the news isn't necessarily about politics or apathy. I now skim through various news programmes for the headlines, ever since they turned into a cross between a reality show and a bad primary school teacher. I can be told that pubs are closing across the country following recession/austerity/cheap supermarket alcohol and get it. I don't need to have paraded across the screen landlords, microbrewery managers and serving staff relating me tales of woe. Tragically the same can be said of war zone reporting. They give you the details of a latest atrocity, then spend more time parading pictures of families in grief, repetitive stories from people that lost their houses and loved ones. Don't get me wrong, they absolutely have my sympathy and my compassion for their circumstances, but it doesn't progress the story - it just prolongs the clip and extends the programme. They have become programme creators instead of news broadcasters.
I'm old enough to remember the news when it was just the headlines, ten or twenty minutes - we need more stories, not infinite detail. I can make up my own mind about a story without having my emotions tugged on.
Please don't get me wrong, I have related my frustration about the news programmes and hopefully did not come across as callous and indifferent, it's a fine line to tread.
Alastair Campbell is slightly wrong in describing the French election system, to be elected in the 1st round you need over 50% of the vote and over 25% of the electorate (that's including everyone who didn't vote). To get to the 2nd round you need 12.5% of the whole electorate so if the turnout is 50% then you need 25% of the vote so that's why three-way 2nd round elections doesn't happen much. If only one candidate qualifies but doesn't get elected then the 2nd placed candidate makes the 2nd round even if they didn't get 12.5% of the electorate.
Remember your ABC.
Anyone But Conservatives.
Or Alistair Bloody Campbell!
Reform?
...but not Farridge.
@@-jamthesun1103ABR?
ABCOR Anyone But the Tories or Reform.
Brexiteer Andrew Neil: "Brexit destroyed the Tory party"
So why did he ignore Brexit then for many years as if it was a done deal? Did he think if you don't talk about , it will go away?
Tories never wanted Brexit before it happened, Brexit has massively divided them. You don't need to be a genius or a remainer to see that. I don't see what his personal stance has to do with this fact.
Neil has gone on record as saying that he never revealed how he voted in the referendum. He even said that his wife doesn't know which way he voted. He has also been highy critical of it in several videos that he done for The Spectator.
The Tories have been split on Europe for 40 years and by bottling it up until the referendum it erupted and fractured the party. By bottling it up more the Tories could have been destroyed by UKIP rather than Reform UK. The problem was the Conservative party attacking the EU while supporting EU membership and this dual policy split into two policy groups.
Since 2016, anybody who voted "Remain" has been battered into the ground. Only an idiot would discuss Brexit now- there's too much to lose and nothing to gain!
The people who wanted Brexit were perfectly willing to sacrifice the Tory party in order to get it.
It feels like sunak’s main strategist is a member of the Labour Party with how his campaign has gone
Same geniuses who were encouraging people to eat out during a deadly pandemic.
It doesnt take a politcal strategist to work it out. Making the election seem like a done deal gives 3 obvious boons to me.
It's gonna lower turnout, that helps the tories.
Make people complacent voting Labour, leading to people voting with conscious becauee "it doesnt matter, labour will win".
And "reform" being a credible threat will get people voting tory to keep the far right at bay and out of Parliament.
I
TORIES OUT
REFORM IN
SHAKE IT ALL ABOUT.
Out where?
@@Robc--jd6yh outta space as far as I care. As long as they're not in government
@@Stoddardian Yep, let's get the smirking little man-baby Farage and his little Englanders in shall we? Brexit was obviously such a roaring success wasn't it
As an ardent Labour-supporting family we have no choice but to vote tactically. Our constituency is historically ultra-Tory so with a Reform candidate in the running we are holding our noses and voting Lib-Dem. I feel terrible that the Labour candidate (bless 'em) will not see their share of the vote shift, but we may kick our sitting Tory MP out.
The tories have had their day and I can see them going into oblivion
I hope so, really do.
@Tom_murray89 - Labour will push this country into oblivion, as they did in the 70's.
@@spindizzy64I hope they don’t get together with the reform party
insha'Allah
@@Tom_murray89 I think they will but that would only push away the few moderate Tories left and link Reform to a bunch of proven losers. With a bit of luck they'll drag each other to the bottom.
I appreciate Rory constantly providing context and identifying who people are when Alistar name-drops. It is something I often forget to do when I am speaking to others who are outside my own context.
It's incredibly obvious why traditionally dominant more 'centrist' parties are being wiped out, and why Labour's insipid and uninspiring offer is paving the way for fascism in 2029. Our technocratic political class are completely out of touch with the needs and lives of working people, and more to the point, largely disinterested. Neoliberal capitalism has accelerated us to a dangerous precipice, and we must now choose: socialism, or barbarism?
I find it odd that Rory is a Conservative he has so many good qualities that you never find in your average tory mp
While Rory is a "Conservative" he fundamentally isn't a conservative, which I'd argue says very little about Rory but instead shows how pointless the Conservative party has become. Rory supports higher tax, a bigger state and more government spending, he's socially very liberal, he believes in mass migration and multi-culturalism, he's strongly in favour of globalisation including the EU which erodes the democratic power of nation states. I mean he was even arguing in this podcast that Labour's manifesto isn't left-wing enough. It's a mystery to me why so many people like Rory are even in the Conservative party at all. It's why we need parties like Green and Reform since they're actually providing us an alternative to the neo-liberal politics that have captured so many Conservative and Labour MPs since Blair.
Although perhaps I'm misunderstanding what you mean by "good qualities". He seems like a decent guy and someone I could have a drink with which I don't feel about other Conservatives.
He isn't a Conservative with a large C. They kicked him out for being as you described.
Well, he has a brain, which Tories always regard with suspicion: "too clever by half, ole boy" - they prefer too stupid by half. Put Rory Stewart back in Parliament as a Tory MP, though, and he'd vote just the same way as Rees Mogg and Duncan-Smith, and to prove it - that's just what he did. Beware of Tories who smile at you and seem reasonable, they're all just fodder for the whips: you have to change the Tory party itself, so that it doesn't unite so totally around fatheaded policies; you might like or dislike individuals, but it's the party's collective identity that's the real issue.
Seems about as conservative as Boris to me, without the clown qualities obviously.
@@stevendurrant1724 most of the party shares his view, it's a Blairite party
Alaistar, it is not just the young people. Labour is not a convincing party … having said that I like my local Labour candidate so I voted Labour (postal). I agree with Rory Labour is trouble long term …
You missed out talking about the very primary motive of Macron’s stand and that is to leave some room for a RN prime minister taking over (Bardella ?) thus expecting to show to the French people how poorly the RN party is at governing (which by the way has been very true at city lever of governance , only Montpellier ? Is still under RN management ), therefore diminishing Marine LePen possible succès at the French Presidential elections in 2027. Today the RN would probably perform very well at presidential elections and Le Pen could end up president of the French République which she missed out twice in the past and by a land slide.
Macron’s thought/strategy can be seen as totally absurd but knowing the French emotional way of voting and sudden backpedaling habits are such that he could be right.
In short it s a long shot which at the moment is putting the country in total disarray unlike if ,as he could have done , call for such legislative elections in the fall just before the vote for the country’s budget. He would have then give the Olympics room to go on and have a good reason to such call because the budget would certainly be facing some very serious opposition at the National Assembly.
I hope i made myself sufficiently understandable in trying to explain this specific aspect of Macron foolish decision.
Completely agree with your analysis. Having said that, the RN is already backpedalling on key aspects of their platform, and the example of Meloni in Italy shows they might be more moderate in power. Bardella does not seem to have many core beliefs, so who knows? What I know for sure is that he scares a majority of French a lot less than Melenchon.
Completely understand people leaning right, I really do. I'm not mocking or demeaning small-c conservative principles. But why anyone is voting Tory anywhere at this election is truly and honestly beyond me. If you want Trussonomics there is a party actually polling quite well for it. If you want Cameron-era compassionate conservatism the Lib Dems are pretty much there. That there is a gap between these two positions does not mean to say that the Tories remotely fill it, but the worse they do the more acute the need to refocus becomes for them.
they dont ordinarily realise that the big C tory are NOT small conservatives. nor do they realise the big C torys dont share the nondom values. its a shame most small 'c types have been hoodwinked.
Marine or Penn s partly is hardly 'hard right ' anymore. She s about as far right as Trump..Yeah?
Farage is like a rash he all over the tv..thats why we are turning off..........
I like Farage but he obviously hates the Tories so he is standing for this reason. Unfortunately it could backfire when millions vote for him and then we get Labour in power with policies that people voting for reform don't want, open borders etc.
It seems to me the only election campaign point for the Tories is to point out that a vote for anyone but the Tories will be a vote for the bogeyman party. Up here, the ony way to STOP THE SNP is to vote Tory. I've had 6 leaflets thru my door already in the past 10 months or so screaming Stop the SNP!.
That's it. That's the campaign.
MANDATE VOTING!!!!! As an Aussie, I don't get the UK on this front. If you don't like any of the candidates or parties, then invalidate your voting slip, but at least get off your backside once every 5 years to decide your own future!
Yep and the most important vote that couldnt just be reversed in 5yrs - Brexit - 13 million didnt vote nor assumed as in.
Working class people at the football? That’ll be the day.
Not the euros or Premiership but working class go to football all the time, championship, league 1 and 2 etc
Prawn sandwiches.
@@My_Name_Is_Brian championship is just like the premiership. League 1 and 2 no one watches. Working class middle class of whatever.
@@charlespirate1 😂😂 you have no idea
Regarding relationships between devolved governments and Westminster - its all well and good Rory wishing the conversations were "less political" however everything that happens in Government is by definition political, and one side will trumpet any success as its own parties triumph and ignore the participation of the other....
Just a thought on the latest Tory scandal. Why is their response "we will wait for the outcome of the investigation" EVERY single time there's a clear transgression, as we've seen in previous scandals? Why is the bar not higher than "Did you break the law or not?" Where are their standards for goodness sake! I'm sick of this defacto line they trot out in the expectation of zero pushback.
Austerity will lead Labour to a loss in 5 years. They will win this one but they are going down the wrong path.
They're following in the footsteps of Macron in France.
Alastair Campbell was totally invested in Macron's so-called centrist political project.
Just because someone wants to see the back of the Tories that doesn't mean they should be forced to vote Labour and it's really incredibly patronising to act so incredulous about some teenagers daring to vote Green or to dismiss people who choose not to vote for Starmer because they have strong moral objections to his stance on an ongoing genocide.
I think it’s simply pragmatism vs idealism.
@SpudNickleson-im7is I dont think they realise there is a revolution going on across the country and although there bias dose not want to address it REFORM have got an enormous part of this country with them. Most people I speak too say they are voting REFORM.
Yeah I’d agree with this but we live under First Past The Post so they’re essentially voting Conservative (in that they are voting in a way that benefits the Conservative party because the left/opposition vote is split). It’s one of the Tories’ main advantages.
@@TimThat You know that Reform exist and that they are splitting the vote on the right
It's the obviously right decision not to support genocide. I thought that Israel has spent many years crying about genocide. Have they changed their minds?
The thing that really annoys me about political parties is their idea that problems can be fixed by throwing money at them. For example: Labour say they will hire 6500 more teachers. Why? Because there aren't enough teachers! But the problem is that if teachers are leaving faster than they are being recruited then after a year or two the leave rate will go up by more than 6500.
Tackling the real problem requires difficult questions, such as if education experts come up with a theoretically wonderful education system but the additional workload leads to serious health problems for teachers and disrupted classrooms, is it actually an unsuccessful system? Since saying that would be politically bad, lets just say we need more teachers and chuck money at hiring 6500 extra then announce, "Job done."
As a teacher, I completely agree with you! Quality of life within the profession at the moment is awful. It really is (yes, even with the holidays). Teaching is absolutely static and uninnovative (except in small pockets). Much of the problem is with school leadership in my experience. Headteachers have too much freedom and power; and a group of volunteer school governors is insufficient oversight and accountability. I worked in IT for 25 years, before going into teaching 8 years ago. It was the first time I'd ever come across very blatent, explicit bullying (not against me by the way). Teaching does not need 6,500 new teachers; it needs a massive re-build from the ground up. The system is failing young people and creating cookie-cutter molds, that it then applies to children.
@@BobC250isn't the issue related to class sizes; the number of kids in the classroom per teacher?
Being fed up with the news is not the same as not bothering to vote. Everyone I know is desperate to get rid of the Tories and will def vote to get them out.
Alastairs anekdotes at the beginning showed, after 14 years of Tories, people who'd really benefit from it, have absolutely no clue how a first past the post system works
Rory’s point about Labour’s narrow bandwidth storing trouble for the future is spot on. That’s why so many people don’t care about lending them their vote. A Labour govt on this platform is going to have a very short honeymoon period. See Macron in french election.
Leave 51.9%
Remain 48.1%
Hard Brexit 100%
Surely there's already is and has always been a mandate for a soft Brexit.
This is far too simplistic. What *is* a "soft Brexit"? If you say it's EEA, fundamentally your problem is that you have to argue that the effect of Brexit was to keep the vast majority of the laws, but lose any vote in what those laws say. That is deeply, deeply problematic (even Tony Blair is on record saying it's problematic and likely a non-starter).
And it's not just problematic in the sense of pointless arguments about "sovereignty" as some sort of fantasy nationalist concept, but in the real world. The UK turned itself into a competitor state to the EU member states. For example, what happens to the UK's financial services industry if it is no longer the one setting its regulation and the EU member states decide to take things in a completely different direction (or one that favours Frankfurt and Paris)? It's 10% of UK GDP.
There IS NO compromise position between leaving and remaining that somehow magically preserves the status quo. That was always the problem. People keep saying "soft Brexit" as if there were some sort of magic economic reset button. There isn't, and in some ways what Labour is trying to do by suggesting agreements on eg goods border check issues is start stepping the stones to closer relationships that CAN improve trading relations but remain politically realistic.
The UK is not San Marino. It's not even Switzerland. It is an extremely large, diversified economy with very specific needs. This is one of the reasons we should not have left. But now that we have, the supposition that the existing EU trading concepts are appropriate for an economy literally four times the size of the biggest economy currently using them to adopt, and to adopt permanently, is dangerous. Indeed, that next biggest economy -- Switzerland -- enjoys arrangements the likes of which were never offered to the UK in the first place and will not be offered (eg Switzerland is not in the single market in respect of financial services).
Typical sore loser statement
The choice was leave or stay, leave won. A "soft Brexit" is nothing but changing the vote for the losing side to get what they want. The choice wasn't stay or the European Signle Market.
Rory's mother MUST appear on The Rest Is Politics, so we can meet her and she can speak for herself!!!!
I agree. It would be very interesting to have the perspective of a person from her generation.
Labour's entire schtick is "we're not quite as bad as the Tories". We need propositional representative ASAP.
Just to cheer up AC a bit I voted Labour for the first time ever (postal vote) in Ealing Southall. Historically a 'safe' Labour seat where the recent MP is not standing this time I would normally have voted Liberal and then Lib Dem, specifically to support the three party system, even though it hasn't felt like we have one for many years. In recent years the Tories have made politics a business run for the benefit of them and their friends and I don't ask any more of Labour than that they genuinely care and represent the whole country to the world in an open and even-handed way.
Any government is just a collection of constituency MPs whose first responsibilty is to all of their constituents with only the 'national interest' trumping that. Party interests should be a poor third. If any Tory MPs do good constituency work then let them stay by all means. The Tory front benches since Johnson have ignored, indeed worked against, national interest and have put party and personal benefit before any public good and I want them powerless, to as near the point of irrelevance as possible.
As someone about to vote Labour in south London, can I thank you, first for how you’ve voted, second for your explanation here.
There will be no option tax has to rise ! Avoiding it would be stupid and the country would be in a greater mess
No it doesn’t. They need to stop spending money on vanity projects, reduce the number of services pandering to minorities and sort out the waste and inefficiencies endemic in public services like the NHS. The roads are in a terrible state but instead of fixing potholes we spend millions on white paint, useless unnecessary road signs and cycle lanes. Traffic lights and cones shut off huge parts of the road network and are there for months with no actual work taking place. That all costs a fortune for the taxpayer and wrecks the fuel efficiency of vehicles.
I’m wondering if voter ID will be a factor in voter turnout.
High turnout will I feel benefit Labour
Some people are absolutely thick. Their not using the ballot box correctly and, sometimes, voting on stupid international or tiny minority side issues that don't, directly, affect the UK.
I dont think the Tories are panicking I think they've given up, every man for themselves locally. Thats why we only see the same 2 or 3 Tories being interviewed, parroting the exact same party lines like robots, and even then they're hardly enthusiastic. Last nights NewsNight the Tory couldnt be bothered to turn up to the studio and through video link she was probably the most low energy reading rehearsed lines Ive ever seen.
What is dumb about voting Green as a protest vote?
Labour has rescinded her environmental reforms to save money. Putting this into perspective this is about living or dying.
We need PR, and we also need a robust opposition to an Orwellian Labour once they take power.
never underestimate the cowards who won't vote so they don't have to take ownership of the consequences.
I agree. I discovered years ago that my next door neighbours never vote. I was surprised because my neighbour Alan is very union orientated and always putting the world to rights and moaning about everything. 😁
Quick clarification ;) for France, the 12.5% bar is of registered voters not a % of people who actually voted, which makes turnout incredibly important for these elections
My message to the Conservative Party, "Fool me once, Brexit, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me." They have been in power the last five years on a lie. The British public is wise to you now.
After the election Sunak should be stopped at Heathrow and his passport cancelled. Why? Coz before he gets on with his life, we need to assess his EXACT role in mass murder. We need to investigate Starma The Compulsive Liar aswell.
“Mass murder” lol. Let me guess, something about “not locking down hard enough” or not spending tens of billions of pounds of taxpayer money on benefits.
Starma?
......and Tony Blair should be added to the list, he used to be affectionately known as "Teflon Tony" because nothing seems to stick. 😁
It’s not the worst in 100yrs it’s the e worst in known history!! Exactly!
My problem is I have always voted Labour but live in Louth Victoria Aiken. I desperately want the Tories out but no hope here. How do I find out who I vote for tactically to try and achive getting rid of her?
This is my first time listening to this podcast. It is so refreshing 🎉❤. I am from Pennsylvania , USA 🇺🇸
Sorry, gentlemen, but the UK is not an outlier in terms of rightwing populism: shall I remind everyone of Brexit, johnson as PM, truss as PM?
Europe is just catching up.
Europe’s centre right wing politicians say things on a regular basis that not even our most mental right wing Tory MP would say.
If you think bojo and truss were right wing you’re really just showing how far left culturally Britain is from the continent, never mind the rest of planet earth that would make your eyes water.
@@enemywithin1295more than patel, braverman, anderson, rees mogg?
@@PrinsTan 100%. I know it might not seem it, but our right wingers are unbelievably tame compared to the continent.
Macron may have made a mistake equivalent of Cameron thinking having a referendum on Brexit would finally shut up the right wing of the Tory party.....
I never thought Id ever be worried about the death of the Tory party. Years ago I would have been grateful to see the back of the Tories but my worry is that if the Tory party falls, it opens the door for the right wing to take there place. I do beleave the we will proberbly get 2 terms of a Labour government but the election facing the country in 10 years could lead to major changes in our country and not for the better.
I'm, not for the first time, a bit confused. I recently received my Poll Card which states right at the top "Election of Member of Parliament for the ***** constituency. Now my sitting MP is in my mind doing a decent job. He's local, diligent, hasn't been caught up in any scandal, and having actually met him on a "voluntary litter pick" some years ago, seemed to be genuinely trying to improve our locality and the lives of those living here. So I'm instructed to vote for him or his rivals for the seat, not the party he represents as a whole. I'd love to see his party fail, however that is not my democratic instruction. So all these MPs and candidates who I, mostly, genuinely believe to be in it to improve things and look after people are held hostage by the idea that the General Election is a pseudo-presidential election. My vote counts only in my constituency, not for the leader or significant figures in their party, yet that is the focus. Yet no one talks about this - it's madness. "Tactical voting"? I mean that is derisory of the electorate. It basically says don't vote for the person who you think will do the best job, vote for someone who stands in opposition to the party you don't like, and who has the best chance of winning the seat. As you can tell it really pisses me off.
The MP your constituency puts forward will then vote for their particular party leader to lead parliament, and will also almost always vote along with the party whip on any parliamentary issues. You aren't just voting for them as an individual, the party they are a member of is a very big part of the package and it absolutely does play a part in deciding who the PM will be.
I do agree though that forcing people into a tactical voting position is derisory of the electorate and just further perpetuates the idea of a two party system.
It's called a "General" election for a good reason. Local parliamentary elections are for thinking about your local representative. In the case of a general election (and particularly this one, after the last few years of Tory rot), people must consider the national impact and outcome. After all, it's not the nice, litter-picking local guy who will be in No.10.
Labour essentially had 4 options open to them going into this campaign: increase taxes; increase borrowing; print more money; or cut public spending. Given the fact that the Tories are facing extinction and a Labour victory is guaranteed, I just find it sad and disappointing that instead of seizing this unique opportunity to put forward a bold and exciting vision for the country, Labour under Starmer, McSweeney and Mandleson have chosen the 4th option and more austerity.
I think what Truss did reduces the headroom for any Government! Labour have to be very careful until we get consistent growth!
I would have liked to see a bit of number 1 with a little of 2 or 3.
4 Is just not an option if things aren't already going well.
When Liebour get in they will do no wrong in the eyes of the media like what is happening in America with Joe Biden. According to the media the American economy is doing amazing but they don't ever mention the $34 trillion debt mountain. 💰💰💰💰💰
I'm calling the current political state of the UK Metronome Politics. I think it started after the 2017 election where people watched as the people they elected to get things done and run the country, bickered amongst themselves rather than get anything done for two years. I think that may have triggered a mentality of "Lets just give one of the parties so much power, there shouldnt be anything to disagree on and maybe the country will start moving forward again", hence the large majority for the conservatives in 2019. Now after 5 years of incompetence with no excuses over the majority they had in order to fix things, the country is saying "no you've had your chance, next party please". In 5 years time, I can easily see the exact same thing happening, another party, maybe someone like reform or whatever comes next for the right parties, will then be given a large majority to work with to just get things done. Eventually if no-one can seemingly fix the country's problems, I'm not sure what comes next, because you're then effectively describing what could arguably be described as a failed state, where nothing works properly and no-one can fix it. Hopefully the next government can set us in the right direction fast enough to stabilise the country's mood.
I think "The Unions" will gradually take over Labour. The Unions were the downfall of the Labour Government in the late 1970's with James Callaghan in charge.
Thanks gents a good chat
Yep. Vote anything but Tory!
But why *is* labour so awful on gaza?
And the Tories policy on Gaza is so much better because...?
@johnbarrett915 The Tories policy is no better. But the Greens is better; the Lib Dems is better; the SNP's is better. The question was, why is Labour's so bad?
@@johnbarrett915 1)nobody is contesting that 2) that's not the question. The question is why labour are so awful.
You mean like going to recognise Palestine as a State.
@jonathanfell688 no, the bit about not ending arms sales to Israel and the failure to call for a ceasefire.
Really agree with AC about the multiple versions of "what the Labour manifesto means for..."
I think it will not only significantly impact the voting but how politics re- engages with people in the future.
I live in France and a French guy said to me that they had an option in the election of a slow death or a fast death.
Labour have pretty well lost my vote over their lack of position on Gaza. It's not a minor issue - it exemplifies whether they have any moral authority or backbone.
How would that actually help anybody in Gaza? Too much of modern politics is nonsense virtue signalling that doesn't influence anything. Palestine/Israel is not a problem that we (in the west) can solve.
What lack of position? They said weeks later that the situation was unacceptable. (Arguably waited too long to say it but that's a different argument)
It has nothing to do with our country and it's issues.
It's a narrow view
@@denzel270 We're still supplying them arms. We were involved in the foundation of Israel and have consistently supported them politically.
Reform on 24% in the latest poll and growing fast, let's have real change, let's go!
I take it that you are oblivious of the fact that only those who are infinitely less intelligent than a fart support Reform?
All you're doing is diluting the Tory vote and ensuring a Labour landslide. Thanks!
@@thedivinemrm5832 Even if Reform supporters weren't taking votes away from the Tories, the Tories will still get obliterated.
Apathy and voter complacency is what gave us Brexit, don't repeat the same mistakes.
Brilliant, really enjoyed this .
Yanis Varoufakis has been spot-on regarding the dangers of labour embracing a centre-right position. Get that man on this pod as soon as possible! Would be an absolute joy to watch! If you dare to invite him on 😉
well, those warnings were there 25 years ago and then 40 years ago.
@@DJWESG1 Sure! Takes nothing away from my original point though! 😊
How the hell is Labour ‘centre right’? What planet are you on?
@@mogznwaz if they re-introduce austerity by refusing to increase spending I would absolutely refer them as centre-right in a economic sense. And economy is always king in politics.
@OskarHellstroem They aren't introducing austerity, they are going to invest and grow the economy. Their strategy is to avoid additional borrowing for day-to-day public expenses while investing borrowed money into expanding infrastructure and assuring market stability, so to encourage private industries to invest in their projects.
There won't be austerity. The only costs they are cutting are ones that are genuinely wasteful, such as the Rwanda scheme and hiring public sector workers through agencies at double the cost.
I'll never vote Tory but I've got no reason to vote labour, Starmer is more of the same.
Thank you for sharing.
Nice to see Alister properly lit and with his glasses polished for once.
If I thought Labour were actually distinctively different from the Tories and would actually make things better, I'd vote for them. As it is, they're now just two slightly different version of neoliberalism.
☄☄☄☄☄☄
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VOTE REFORM
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Oh, you clapped. Maybe I'll do as you say.
The Republicans in France went into melt-down when it was suggested by its leader it do some form of deal with La Pen, who, while she may be right wing is not an anti-democratic fascist. Meanwhile, the Socialist Party, who as Alistair rightly says are are social democrats, is fully able to form an alliance with the French Communists Party almost without comment. Why is it that the soft left never seems to have an issue working with the genocidal left (communists have murdered over 100 million people in the past 100 years) and seem to hardly be criticized, while the centre-right are pilloried for even talking to a party of the the right, no matter how democratic they are. This attitude originates in issues such as Ash Sarkar, an avowed Communist, and consequently at the very least an apologist for mass -murder regularly appearing on the BBCs "The Moral Maze", the same programme David Starkey was thrown off for making an historically correct statement, admittedly in a way a minority of people could have interpreted to be mildly racist. There is no evidence Starkey has promoted a genocidal ideology, while Sarkar does on an almost daily basis.
Surely it is about collaborating on the basis of polices held in current times. No one on the left now would collaborate with Stalin if he was around now, but would advocate for Marxist economic policies. What are the current policies of the Far Right?
She does not advocate genocide at all.
"while she may be right wing is not an anti-democratic fascist" There you have it folks, the Big Lie those on the right continue to peddle. That these fascists aren't really that bad. Look at them, they don't have skinheads, they don't have swastika tattoos, they dress like bank managers or car sales reps. What's so scary about that? GTF. The Allies didn't fight WWII just so that, 80 years later, the far right could just be welcomed in as saviours. Evil must be opposed. On all fronts.
@@elaineclift2227that’s a good question. What are the policies of the far right atm? It seems to me the main policies are lowering immigration, lowering taxes and being tough on policing. Sure I understand if you don’t like these policies. But like how what you are saying are far from Stalin, these are policies far from the fascista of the past.
@@joshyman221Because the far right never just stop with that. Scapegoating immigrants for problems they didn't cause is a slippery slope and history already shows us what's at the bottom of that slope...
The fat right have become nationalists and supremacists. Just look at what the GOP has done in America.
It's absolutely imperative that Western voters don't allow their political parties to surrender the centre ground. Coalitions lead away from that centre ground, and we know politicians will do anything to stay in power.
The Conservatives had a remarkable politician called Rory Stewart and made it impossible for him to stay and this is the result. I’m not a Tory by the way
Moderate politics that really delivers for the majority will always keep the extremists at bay, but of course over the last 25 years the majority have suffered so we are where we are today.
Whatever the number of Labour and Tory parliamterians nothing much will change if Starmer and his team implement the current fiscal logic. So what's the big deal. Our political system is BROKEN!
Rory appears to have aged a huge amount over the past few months. I really hope he’s alright
Its all the questions about pots what done it! 😂
The message we get from Labour's campaign is "If you vote for us, things probably won't be that much worse under Labour than they would have been under the Conservatives, but at least it will put an end to the endless Tory infighting and psychodrama".
The last and most powerful argument on the doorstep for voting labour has always been "If you don't vote for us you'll get the Tories again"? This election is no exception. The ONLY decision individual British voters have is to decide which party they loathe the most and to put their cross next to whoever will unseat them in the local constituency. The majority of people who vote for labour will not be doing so because of Labour's policies, which we expect they'll largely ditch anyway, but because we are sick and tired of the Tories.
It would be so nice if we could vote for a party because we're enthusiastic about their policies, not just because we want to see the back of the other lot.
Unfortunately some people are not educated enough to think for themselves. Some families can't name a single Labour policy but will vote for them because their family has done for generations. In one town in South Yorkshire it used to be said that if you stuck a red rosette on a donkey they would vote for it. 😁
@@dragonfly6908 And this is equally true of many Conservative voters.
@@Frankfrynk I would imagine they could name at least one policy.
My sense is the same as with Brexit. There’s a load of older hidden voters who don’t do YouGov and will vote conservative.
The ones who tipped Brexit over? They are hidden in their grave and won't be able to vote in the upcoming election.
Maloni is not a far right populist FFS. The more I listen to these two, the more I realise how out of touch with reality they are. They cannot get into their heads that the policies they have espoused for the past 30+ years have lead us to this point of popular revolt. Alistair, Rory, you need to understand that about a third of the UK absolutely hate you both because of what you and your mates have done to the UK. Now, 'about a third' is not a majority, but it is not tiny minority either. The UK's winner takes all first past the post system sows division and discontent it leaves people unrepresented, voiceless and feeling utterly powerless. What the UK desperately needs is electoral reform.
Really? Any proof of that? Your opinion isn't proof of anything and doesn't count for much either?
And what exactly do you know about Meloni and her party' stand?
Source of your "third" of the UK population hating Al and Rory?
They’re both oblivious to how their global centrism and Campbell’s lies sowed the seeds of problems we have in the UK now. They’re both also absurdly detached from reality, Campbell’s hypocrisy about other people lying is off the scale.
@@marleneMSWhat’s your “proof” for anyone critical of mass immigration being “far right”. You’re all simply regurgitating the same nonsense with your head still buried in the sand.
I don’t see how you can blame Nigel for not delivering Brexit. He is not in Parliament!
Farage got the entire country riled up. He did not need to be in Parliament as Brexit was decided in a vote before it became the business of Parliament.
Because Brexit in any form is fundamentally detrimental to UK trade. And he pushed for it.
But we voted for it and sadly he was not in a position to affect how it was delivered.
Roll on the election! We seem to be trapped in an intolerable volcanic fog of lies. Please carry on shining a light through the gloom!
I really appreciate the competency, especially within the UK politcal sphere, that you both bring to serious reporting about politics
Are you from the USA?