What’s the lowest odds you should bet on a horse?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 3 ก.ค. 2018
- Weekend Handicapper of Weekend Handicapper.com examines horses with low odds and What low odds are acceptable before you bet. At what point do you not bet on a horse because it’s odds is too low and offers no value? Or do you bet on a horse you believe in no matter how low it’s odds are? Watch this video for tips on when to know when to bet and when to pass on the race. Also be sure to subscribe to this channel as well as check out www.weekendhandicapper.com
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I took 2/5 on American Pharoah, but he's a definite exception! Last weekend? Get Smoking at 5/1
Nice!
it was 6 to 1 but thats before i found you now Im going to go off your advice
Thank you Joe! I appreciate you taking the time to watch the videos.
I dont bet that often, but when I do I always take the longer shots.
Like you, I have no interest in betting lower than 5-2
In the 2008 Preakness, Big Brown was 1-5, but the Super still paid over two grand. Exotics are great for that.
Solid advice
Thank you.
Great info
Thank you Pcola.
Plus remember if you are in Virginia you cant delete a bet over 250$ no matter what the odds change to, thats the BS part of betting in Va. Had a 2/1 I felt good about bet 500 and just about 15 seconds before they broke gate it dropped to 1/9 and of course it would not let me cancel. And he didnt win on top of all that. TVG gets a little shaky
That is BS! I didn't know that. I have been to Colonial Downs. I enjoy playing their turf races! Big turf fields!
Yesterday I bet four horses to win. Two of them won at 1--20, and one won at 1--5. The other one lost at 4--5. I had three winners out of four and lost.
I will bet a 1/9 in my p3 and up if I can get a price horse in another race. I am with you on waiting for another race if you don't find a payout. I bet $1.20 dime super hoping the 1/5would come second or third. It chalkedout and paid $0.66.....lesson learned
At the local track, I try to get in line as late as possible, but be careful you don't wait too long. You can also bet on one of the online betting sites. Maybe your track has one, but the bigger tracks tend to offer online betting for MANY tracks. That way you can always wait until almost post time.
Good video but over the years I've learned it depends on your bankroll cuz it TAKES money to WIN money no matter what the odds,also gotta get creative with an exacta or triple because I have seen big favorites pay with a decent price underneath,hey if its a 20 exacta?i gotta throw more money on it to make up for the low odds on the favorite,I stopped just refusing to play low price faves because it was killing me tbh,,,Justify the triple crown winner paid huge numbers in the exotics and he was the favorite every triple crown race,I hear what you saying but you gotta take what they give you,your not going to find many big prices consistently handicapping,I will skip odds on horses tho,lol
It depends on what you think the winning percentage of the horse is,if you think the horse has 70% chance of winning,that means it has a 30% chance of losing,you can go as short as even money
In one of your videos you mentioned you would create a how to on the pick 3. Is that out?
Hi have a question if the if I bet on the horse and the horse comes in second place and two or three weeks later they disqualified number one because he was positive test, do I still have a chance to get the money back
The difference of the pay out
When you bet on a horse, you lower it's odds. No way around it.
If you want to make more winners, at least lower your minimum to 2-1. It's the mean average price. I have found that betting on ranges of odds with varying amounts for each range gives me the action and risk I want because I spend a lot of time handicapping races and my best wins come in consecutive races so I stick with horizontals with the win bet covering the horizontal wagers, but I bet cold.
An average range horse, get an average bet, a below average range horse will get a smaller bet, a prohibitive range favorite gets a minimum ($2) wager. Conversely, and above average bet gets the next point on the scale, and the outstanding bet gets the top range. If you reduce the amount of thinking to a set of progressions, like a football play chart, you will know better bets.
I do track the odds and pools to help proportion my bets correctly. Some patterns are negative and tell me not to bet the horse I like but maybe a second or third choice.
People hate keeping records, especially at the track, but if you track your bets you will find strengths and weaknesses and you and work on the weaknesses by betting less, observing more and betting when the evidence is compelling.
I know that the bottom level maiden claiming has given me trouble since it dropped below $35k (NYRA) and that below that point you can virtually toss horses than well in their last because they rarely lack the resiliency to repeat, that's why they're in for that price. So when those races are part of a horizontal, I remember my personal tendencies, the statistics for the class and wager accordingly.
With the lower foal count over the last decade and smaller fields, the bottom at NYRA tracks is likely to stay below $35k for the near future.
Good detailed advice, Thanks for contributing!
There's a great advantage to meticulous work ethic.
I saw another video that used a 4 point system. I prefer to think of them as levels and I have found 5 to be better for me.
Newyork Filharmonik Cheers for this, I have been researching "tips betting race horses" for a while now, and I think this has helped. Have you ever come across - Donarial Speculation Sabora - (search on google ) ? Ive heard some unbelievable things about it and my cousin got great results with it.
This is glorious, I've been looking for "race horse betting tips" for a while now, and I think this has helped. Have you ever come across - Donarial Speculation Sabora - (should be on google have a look ) ? Ive heard some incredible things about it and my brother in law got amazing results with it.
Since I only have about a year's worth of handicapping experience where I've gotten serious about the game, I cut myself off at 5-1. Yes, I'm sure I miss opportunities, but for the time being, as my experience grows, striking at a horse below 5-1 is like diving into the deep end when you're starting to learn how to swim. 5-1 is where my confidence is truly challenged and hope the odds hold up for me to strike. I think it holds true with a horse at any odds, but I just don't have it just yet to strike at horses below 5-1 where the payout is less, more risky and less exciting. Not to say I haven't struck at 3.5-1 and won, as I did this previous week.. In general, if I don't see horses that are 5-1 or greater having a SOLID chance, I move on or like you say, maybe bet some cheap exotics. And you know what, I haven't had to deposit into NYRA since 2017. My question is this.....how long should it take for a horse player to handicap a typical race or a full race card?
I would say for most people 10-20 minutes per race would be sufficient. So on a typical 8-10 race card that would equate to around 90 minutes to 2 hours. This includes planning out what bets to make and structuring your tickets. A thing to watch for is spending too much time on races and overanalyzing. Especially on big race days.. I would set a goal of 10 minutes per race when you get good at handicapping. Hope this helps and thanks for the comment.
meslem99 what weekend said about the length of handicapping,just dont think to long because you will think WRONG alot of times
Weekend Handicapper Thank you. 10-20 is exactly where I'm at per race, depending on the number of horses or the type of race. If I find myself in a situation over analyzing a race, I typically skip betting altogether.
I agree. If it takes longer than that then it probably means you should probably skip it because you don't have a strong opinion. Good advice!
I try to got even odds but do so by playing show at certain tracks. Its hasn't been good. A few times a horse won the race at 10-1 and i got less than even odds for place or show due to fav coming to place. Why does the public hit those so often? In big fields i bet a couple of horses and hardly get my own bet back. I feel that its ridiculous to bet one horse in a good race. I like two or three. And at least one of those crashes, or falls asleep in the gate. If i get my money back it help s me to try again, rather than choking the neighbor's dog, or buying $5 lottery tickets at the 7-11.
But surely if bet on something horses what ever. And you bet when it's 3/1 then it goes down to say evens later in the day. And it wins. You will get the 3/1 odds. Not the even odds.
Hopefully I understand your comment right. I think what you are referring to what is called fixed odds. In some Kentucky Derby Future Pools you can "lock" in the odds of horses. Meaning that it is the odds that you get. But in most horse racing pools especially in the United States they are what are called pari mutuel. Meaning the odds will always fluctuate and are constantly changing as money comes in on each horse. The more money bet on the horse the lower the odds. And the less money bet on a horse that higher the odds. The odds can change on horses until they finally leave the gate for a race. For example I might bet a horse at 3-1 20 minutes before a race begins, but once the horses leave the gate that same horse might be 2-1 which is disappointing. Every now and then that same horse that was 3-1 20 minutes before post will drift up to 5-1 once the race begins. That is a good thing. It doesn't happen often but it is nice when it does.
Hopefully this answers what you were wondering about. Thanks!
A "cut off point" should be up to each individual horse's probability of winning a given race rather than taking a universal stance with all horses covering all races. Taking 8/5 on a horse you've determined had a 60% apx win probability is a good bet. Taking 6/1 on a horse that you've determined only had a 10% apx win probability isn't a good bet. If you've determined both of those same two horses had a 30% apx win probability then the reverse is true, and the 1st horse is obvious a bad bet at 8/5, and the 2nd horse is a great bet at 6/1. If looking to make win bets on a race(s), determining who the real win contenders is only a part of the equation. A big part mind you. But if looking to make smart bets (or smart passes) you also have to have some idea on what those contenders' apx win probability is via a "value line" or something similar. Once you can determine that then the bets make themselves depending on what the tote board says. Value can be found on short priced horses as well as long priced ones if you have a good idea of probability.
In 2010, at Parx, a horse named Gangsterontherun popped in on PA Derby day for a 2yo maiden, after flying up the rail to finish second to first-timer Skylord at Saratoga. Figuring he was a "supermaiden" I pounded him at 6-5, and he won easily without ever being threatened. Scratched from that race was Pants on Fire, who went to Monmouth and lost to future BC Classic winner Mucho Macho Man. Beware of the Supermaiden! Some of them in NY run second to two or three Derby horses in a row as 3yos and still pay 1-1 or higher when they graduate against weaker.
Gangster then came back to win a 16k claimer at Parx at 2-1 about a year later, then returned for one more try after that a bit down the road, broke down on the turn, and died.
Andrick gets it. You can also play limit poker using this method.
Awesome 👍
Wasn't American Pharoah 4-5 for the Belmont stakes?
Can you use the ML for odds?
Good question! Yes the thing to keep in mind about morning line odds is it is how the track handicapper thinks the public will bet the horses and not who they think will win. This is why it is a good thing to get to a point where each of us can assess a horses chances and find discrepancies in the morning line odds and what we think a horses true odds should be. I can do a video about this in the future.
I am following the betting where I bet the favorite below 5/2 plus even favorite 2 ie one unite 5/2 and 2unite 1/1but only sure the race is between two and no third horse
fucking smart
Take a price m8 if you happy with it , I’d rather put £100 on for a £20 profit than back a 20/1 shot that ran well but was 5th , point is you need a winner and a big price loser is pointless, even a EW bet needs to be 5/1 to just get your cash back normally and just like backing to win if thy lose you get nothing but going EW means you lose double I’d rather have say £50 win and 2£25 wins in the same race than go £50EW 3 CHANCES OF WINNING . Only gamble what you can lose ppl..
How can you have a cut off point if you cant take the odds/fixed price as in UK???? TERRIBLE VIDEO
Exactly makes no sense
There are no fixed odds in North American Thoroughbred Racing. That doesn't mean that it is unwise to determine a level of odds beyond which you will not bet on any horse. Most savvy horse players will wait until just before post before placing a win bet and at large tracks the odds are unlikely to change dramatically at that point. I don't know why you think that equates to the value of the video.
Odds do NOT matter unless you pick the WINNER...All of this secondary crap is just useless
Nice guy but don't quit your day job