Two of the Worst Ways to Bet Exactas in Horse Racing
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 4 ต.ค. 2024
- #exactas #howtobettheexacta #bettingexactasinhorseracing #horseracing #bettingonhorses #handicapping #horseracingtips #horseracingbetting #horseracingterms #weekendhandicapper
Join Weekend Handicapper of Weekend Handicapper.com as he shows you two of the worst ways to bet the exacta in horse racing. In this video, you will learn why betting exacta boxes is almost always a bad idea. And what is even more hurtful to one's bankroll is betting and boxing low-priced horses in your exacta wagers.
The exacta is one of the most popular bets in all of horse racing. And it is also one of the most misplayed. So join weekend handicapper as he explains ways to avoid losing money in the future by betting exactas in the wrong way. If you want to be a profitable handicapper in the long run and if you routinely bet exactas then watching this video is a must!
Here is an example of a successful exacta wager from the past that was referenced in the video from the 2019 Florida Derby. This is the kind of wagering strategy and mindset that will make you a winner in the log run.
• 2019 Florida Derby Pic...
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
7 Maximum Security 11.60 7.40 5.40
8 Bodexpress 47.40 16.60
9 Code of Honor 4.20
$1 Exacta 7-8 257.10
$1 Trifecta 7-8-9 1,105.70
$1 Superfecta 7-8-9-4 3,493.80
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I love some of the advice given here. Great channel. To beat the modern game you must wait for over bet horses and bet against them. Finding and playing value does not feel good because it may require the player to actually pass races. Boring but a must.... Keep up the great work, been loving this game for 29 years.
Thank you for the kind words and I appreciate you offering those words of wisdom! Very true!!!
You can't be afraid of missing a horse, when in doubt do as Ron does"sit on hands"
I am a pick 3, pick 4, pick 5 , pick 6 bettor. However I do place exacta bets when I see that a couple of my selections are likely to go off at 5/1 or higher. If you see a vulnerable favourite this provides especially good value.
Exactly right. That is a good time to bet them.
@@WeekendhandicapperWE NEED WINNERS AT THE BELMONT MAN. TELL US THAT. JUNE 5, 2024. WHO GONE WIN, PLACE, SHOW. THIS IS WHAT WE NEED. THEY SAY RACES IS FIXED. CAN YOU PROVE TO US, ITS NOT FIXED
Miss your videos man. Hope to see you soon
The worst exacta bet you can make is boxing two runners who compliment different pace scenarios. For example, a "need the lead" runner coupled with a deep closer needing a pace breakdown.
Great point Deelo!
there was a guy that was a loud talker at the otb. you could hear him tell the lady he wanted to do a exacta box. he always was taking the favorite over the field. one day he sat next to me and i decided to educate him by asking him if his bet was a "good bet". i didn't say bluntly that that was a bad bet. i said is that a good bet. he about flew off the handle giving me the "what if" excuses. when the race was over, he sat there with his arms folded and didn't say a word...and neither did i. i thought, he is a donator and he'll figure it out or run out of money soon.
One of the best times to bet and even box ex. is when a top trainer, Pletcher, Brown for example dropping a horse way down into cheap claimers. Most the time the horse will be bet favorite and not even hit the board.
That is a situation I will keep my eye on. That makes sense though. Big time trainers take the money and their intention is to get the horses out of their barns and part ways with them. Thanks for the insight!
Anytime I see Daveax, Merton, Taggart, Miller.... lol
U know what your talking about but your not a dynamic speaker u should use a chalk board to show the proper combinations😅
Especially in a 20 horse field..and don't forget to put money on your long shot to WIN !
That's true. Never forget the good ole win bet on a price!
When I started doing exactas (with $2 bets) I'd average $40 gross profit at the end whether I won 2 -4 exacta wins. I'd say that is the best an average person will do, so if you do "boxes" there is no profit to be had. But I've graduated to Trifectas because the profits are way better and not any harder than doing exactas.
Good advice Mark!
I’m new at this but tell me if I’m right: One of the other big reasons to not box the top lowest priced horses is because this ignores pace and running style. For example, if the top 3 favorites in a race are all E types, the chances of 2 E’s to be 1st and 2nd are extremely low, because in most races, E’s will have speed duels or at least one will tire and not even be in the money, possibly neither of them. On the other hand, if the top 2 or 3 favorites are different running styles, like E, S, P, then it could happen! and I would avoid that bet.
Exactly right!!!! Pace Handicapping is how you get some nice prices included in an exacta. For instance, horses with opposing running style often make nice paying exactas. Good insight History and Horseplaying.
@@Weekendhandicapper Thanks! Makes sense
The info is good but the explanations are too long-winded
Haha. Not the first time I have been accused of that. I guess I need to start using a script because I can keep talking and talking about these topics all day long. It never gets old. Thanks for the feedback.
I was distracted by the painting. I can't see a bridle on that horse.
Is it a goose,s bridle 😢😢😢
I think it’s called boxing because you are placing all those possibilities in a “box”, with the four sides of the box being the combinations. As in “boxing you in”.
Cool. I didn't know that. Thanks for the info!
What do you think about betting the lower odds over the higher odds horse. Don't you normally get more value playing the 2-1 over the 10-1, rather than the reverse?
Yes that will work in most cases. Nothing wrong with liking a horse at 2-1 and using a longer odds horse in the 2nd position to increase the payout and thereby increasing the value of the 2-1 horse. The main thing is to find horses that the majority of the betting public aren't using in the 2nd position. Many people select the two or 3 top win contenders and put them in their exactas. But it is more profitable to shift the mindset and be like which horse at good odds can have the best shot at finishing second. That change in mindset can allow you to find horses for the exacta that others don't have simply by thinking different for the crowd. Hope this helps and thanks for the question and watching the video!
@@Weekendhandicapper Agreed - if I like a longshot to win, I'll bet $2 win, $2 straight exacta with the most likely winner on top with my long shot second (exacta as place bet) - if my longshot gets beat by the 'favorite', I still cash & make $$ 😎
I like a long shot under with a habit of coming in second.
Then look for a false favorite to weed out.
That's a smart way to play. Good luck to you!
I sit on my hands a lot.
That helps too
😅
If you are new to horse racing and you are watching this video, you may not realize there’s and X in exacta. 😀
Ok, here is my analytical strategy to decide how to bet my Kentucky derby exactas, tris, and supers. Will consider the following scenarios:
1. Essential Quality wins-. A) Easily, by controlling the pace w no serious challengers, or B) Has to ride hard, beating back challengers and winning speed duels;
2. EQ loses, but is in the money (i.e. tires, is beaten by challenger/s, etc.
3. EQ loses, and is not in the money (i.e. he did not fire, or ran hard and was beaten early, therefore still influencing the pace somewhat); or
4. EQ is never a factor- has a bad trip, loses a shoe or rider, scratches, etc.
I think I will decide which 1 to 3 possibilities of those I will concentrate on and bet accordingly, or, make a series of small bets, one for each scenario. Chances of being right are low, but after all, it’s the KD so mostly just for fun!
I love how you are thinking of different scenarios and what ifs? That is a key to winning in the long term in my opinion! Nice job!
Pace won't matter EQ can be close or come off of it, he'll be tough to beat.
Your Betting strategies must be consistent to make money in horse racing. Good Luck 🍀 🍀
Exactly right Janet!
I love them, he’s the real deal.
Good point = cashing tickets is not turning a profit - by the time you factor in the cost of travel, parking, admission and program, etc., you'll have to cash lots of tickets just to break even 😎
If I see 2 horses that I really like but are low odds and know the exacta won't pay much, I'll play a super with those 2 first and second, and then wheel and deal the 3rd and 4th place finishers. A small bet can be quite rewarding if the bottom 2 go off at big odds, especially in a full field.
Yes that is a good strategy in the right field of horses! Hopefully we can hit those kinds of those wagers at least a few times a year!
I agree with most of what you said but you take a very long time to explain it. Often repeating the same thing over and over.. I subscribe but for me to to have 22 minutes to just sit and listen is almost impossible. And and I think that's true of most people.. I think if you're going to get more subscribers you gotta make 10 minute videos. Hopefully positive advice advice. I know you enjoy racing and betting and keep up the good work.
I appreciate the honest feedback Jeff! Good things for me to keep in mind when creating these videos in the future.
Just bet exacta of one of the three favorites with one of the three highest odds. Happens a lot
Biggest factor in exacta betting us how many horses are in a race. Say you play 3 horses in a box that are 9-5, 2-1, & 5-2 . If there's only 5 horses in a race the $1 exacta with 2 favorites is probably only paying $6 or $7. A $10 box cost $60. If it comes in youre lucky to make $10 profit. If there's 8,9 or 10 horses or more there are more combinations to be played & spread the exacta pool out a little more so that similar exacta as far as the win odds are concerned will pay a lot more than the 5 horse race. So in that case, you can play a $10 exacta box that costs you $60 & if it pays $12 you doubled your money. If it pays more than $15 which it could a lot of the time then you made a nice score! Moral of the story is there's a time & a place for a 3 horse exacta box. Most tracks show you the exacta will pays next to the odds so pay attention to that to determine if the exacta is worth the investment. A lot of the time it sure is. A great example is the Kentucky Derby. With 20 horses, even if the 2 big favorites come in it will pay great! I don't think I ever seen an exacta in the derby pay less than $30!
I like betting long shot lone front runner to win and bet exacta with 1-3 horses on top of the front runner.
Yes that is a good way to play exactas! I have had some success with that approach. I am glad you use it! That is a smart way to play.
Pretty sure this dude is speaking directly to me🤣. I suck at this horse betting thing.
Horse racing is a bad bet , the take out is so much. If you want to gamble and actually win more often , pick another game. It's fun to bet horses , but no one wins in the end, unless they hit a life changing pick 6.
For the love of the game
Trifecta..longshot in. a Trifecta KEY BOX....
I like to box two horses just for 2$ for example the 1&2. Then I’ll trifecta 1,2/3/1.2. For 1$. So 3$ total.
I should hit at least one if I have the 3 best horses in the race.
Hey Buddy, hope for your health , I’m not so great. Multiple myeloma, and prostate cancer. I’m hanging in there though. Something has happened in your life also. Sometimes we forget to pray brother. I’m guilty. Love to hear your picks. Hang in there.
Worst way to bet any exotics is a race with no whip or Lasix sure fire way to Lose
You are probably right. I don't even pay attention to Monmouth anymore. Hard to determine the pace anymore.
I always select.the horse & wheel it with all the other horses .I've done pretty well except when Max security was. Disqualified, placed 17th for interference & a 65 to 1 Longshot won .
What,s your opinion on that rCe being the first time a K.D.horse was Disqualified?
Yes wheeling and part wheeling horses is the way to go. I hated to see Max get dqed but I thought it was the right call. I thought we were lucky that horses didn't fall that year in the KD. A couple of horses clipped heels.. That would have not been good. I hate to hear it affected your ticket!
@@Weekendhandicapper I think it was the wrong call. War of Will cause the whole incident and besides it did not make any difference in the outcome. Nobody was beatin Max. People got screwed.
@@zoloboy7 I agree, war of will tried to go to a non-opening & he screwed up everything including poor maximum security.
It takes money to make money..BOX,BOX,BOX...watch the possible exacta's payouts...saver with your longshot: have him boxed with short price horse,,then 5.00 straight ticket with your lobster 2nd !
If you betting the favorite in an exacta, bet it only on top. Reversing it shows a much greater loss. I created a horse racing database with thousands of races and here are the exacta stats:
favorite (on top) paired with 2nd betting odds choice 12.16% loss
2nd betting odds choice (on top) with favorite 14.61% loss
favorite with 3rd betting odds choice 19.31% loss
3rd betting odds choice with favorite 30.45% loss
favorite with 4th betting odds choice 20.75% loss
4th betting odds choice with favorite 38.63% loss
favorite with 5th betting odds choice 11.37% loss
5th betting odds choice with favorite 17.96% loss
favorite with 6th betting odds choice 12.43% loss
6th betting odds choice with favorite 35.44% loss
favorite with 7th betting odds choice 36.39% loss
7th betting odds choice with favorite 69.40% loss
favorite with 8th betting odds choice 36.36% loss
8th betting odds choice with favorite 77.87% loss
Exacta at $2?? Yikes- NYRA has it as a $1 bet- same odds but you are putting more out
When you box exacta bets you are automatically buying one losing ticket
He is wrong in saying the most logical horses are the ones best most. A good handicapper waits for when the logical horse is not bet! Thus a box exacta can be a very good bet.
exactas used to be called perfectas
So your supposed to bet horses with the worst odds?
i have a dream that number 9 win the race ,i hope lol
I will looking forward to who number 9 will be Julio! Good luck to you!
BEST BET in horse racing tho are pick 3"s and 4's !
I used to like to play pick 3s but it seems most skip them for P4s or P5s these days. They seem to not pay much anymore unless you have them multiple times. But yes I used to love those Pick 3s.
APPLE BLOSSOM 2021 🤗you know I Love Switzerland🇨🇭 💪SWISS SKYDIVER😘beats them all.
Awesome! Good luck to you. I will be watching but won't be betting this race. It should be an enjoyable race to watch. Hopefully it is a good showdown between those two.
Might have a shot to hit the board not the win.. Good luck to you tho
The Apple Blossom Race is a example of the most likely trifecta not paying as odds are low on all three with Letruska at 4 to 1.
Bruh, isn't 3 horses a trifecta not an exacta?
No you can box 3 horses in an exact and a triacta
Horse betting is for people who don’t understand math
ha ha ha I was already married to this guy, although I never met him. I can handicap for myself.
Seem like a nice guy but don't quit your day job
Zzz zzz zzz zzz boring!!!
Thanks Dan. I am glad I could help you get caught up on your sleep!
@@Weekendhandicapper Maybe you could edit out the first 17 minutes or so and keep just the last 5 minutes where you finally get to the point.
@@danmaus245 I get paid every time you leave a comment so I appreciate it.
@@danmaus245 Make your own video nitwit!
Horseplayers die broke.
Oh yeah. You are absolutely right!
Hope these tips helped.
@@Weekendhandicapper A question for you. Is there anyone in the KD that can compete with Essential Quality? I had my eye on Highly Motivated. I think he is waiting for the Preakness.
@@blubberbooty Hi Randall. Yeah I think the race is wide open. Although I would love to see Essential Quality since I have a nice future bet on him and am a fan of the horse, it won't be easy. So this should be a wide open KD. I am interested to see how Highly Motivated will do. I agree. His running style and early speed makes him a good fit for the Preakness. I am excited to how both of them run!
@@Weekendhandicapper Did you see how Essential Quality won the Juvenile? The Jockey didn't really use the whip. This horse is smart and knows what to do.