Tony Seba presenting to Saudis about the energy transition is the meta version of Steve Jobs presenting to a room full of Motorola and Nokia execs about smartphones 😂
The Saudis has been smart about diversification and creating new ways to have a more sustainable economic model. For example they had great strides is agriculture, food production. They were smart enough to have Tony there and they knew about Tony's ideas, so I give them tons of credits.
Did you see him emphasize the Food transformation for this audience? Imagine Saudi Arabia bringing nutritious, protein-rich and tasty (sweet) food at scale at very affordable (near zero) rates to the entire region in maybe 10 years. (Hunger and food scarcity are going to be even more pressing issues as Climate Change progresses.) "Blessed" indeed is the country that is not just the birthplace of an important religion, but also is a huge part in solving one of the most basic and essential of human needs. Another excellent presentation from Tony Seba.
Well Saudi Arabia will lose in Hydrocarbon exports but gain in solar energy and food production. Overall it will be a positive for them because they have been investing big in this new economy already. Well their religous tourism money is not going anywhere.
One thing I find fascinating is how disruption arises from changing conditions. You can’t force a disruption, and you can’t prevent a disruption. It crosses very quickly from “impossible” to “inevitable”.
I’m not sure you can’t prevent one. In fact I’ll go further and say that, without China there not playing by Western rules, big auto and big oil would have tried to do just that. And probably held back the EV revolution.
@@rctezluh42069 The equilibrium economics that most people mean when they say “market” doesn’t account for disruption. It’s like how Henry Ford supposedly said that if he asked consumers what they wanted, they’d have said “faster horses”. This also means that targeted market optimizations can’t fundamentally change a market. For example, solar power became viable because it was heavily subsidized long enough to get manufacturing economies of scale to kick in. Now it’s cheaper than fossil fuels on merit and subsidies aren’t needed. But equilibrium “market” economics says subsidies are bad, and carbon taxes are better because market. But no politically feasible carbon tax would ever have made solar panels cost competitive (much less a “free market”, which is in no way free). They needed an initial boost to become viable. NOW the market is deciding solar is better, because solar is cheaper - because it is. As an aside, I’m reminded of Peter Thiel’s observation in his book “Zero to One”, that in the theoretically ideal “free market” of economists and politicians, profit is impossible, as perfect competition drives everything to zero. Profit, especially the huge profits that venture capitalists like Thiel seek, are only possible when the competition is imperfect - when there is a unique value proposition that can’t be replicated more cheaply by “competition”.
I’ve sent my young adult kids Tony’s videos about 8 months ago with him giving basically the same presentation. The fact it’s TAQA in UAE is hilariously funny. The look on their faces says they don’t believe. See if that group changes anything about their future plans after this. Bet is a Hard no.
I wonder if she was referring to the possibility that the large number of middle eastern people make them a hostile audience? A lot to lose if oil becomes less relevant. I believe that oil will always have relevance because of chemicals, plastics and lubricants.
@@randallsmith7885I'm not so sure. If Seba and RethinkX are correct with their predictions we'll arrive in an era of overabundance of energy. That also means cheaper production of synthetics from any source, really, even the carbon in the very air we breath.
@@lesbendo6363 I checked the event. It is TAQA 20th anniversary, which is Abu Dhabi’s electric and water utility and are also in the oil and gas business. I have to assume that Their CEO is a forward thinking person who wants to get the executives’ minds thinking about the future.
@beegdawg007He’s been proven correct so it’s hard to argue with success. Humans negativity bias has also been proven so while you’ve focused on the negative, things like global poverty have reduced dramatically and cost of solar energy has dropped 90%. In my 60 years I’ve heard nothing but doomsday predictions that never come true. It seems no one likes good news.
Exactly, and Tesla is killing it in all those areas. Disruption at it's finest! Which companies are strong in the food disruption (precision fermentation)? Which names should I add to my watch list?
Some folk can see what’s going to happen decades before it happens. In this era it’s Tony Seba doing the predicting, and predominately Elon Musk delivering the disruption, on an EPIC, global scale 👊
Some don't see the evidence even if it is presented in front of their eyes, the predictions he made 10 years ago about prices are now a reality, not fantasies.
@beegdawg007You are absolutely right, I have another number for you: Philip Tetlock once analyzed 82,000 predictions from hundreds of experts, almost none became reality. Why? Our world is a complex machine of many non-linear interferences. One example: The almost effortless expansion of wind energy, onshore wind, came to a grinding stop. Assumptions and fundamentals valid a decade ago have changed, higher interest rates, higher material costs and increased labor costs have a devastating impact on volatile (non dispatchable) energy generation. Europe's biggest onshore wind farm in Sweden has faced a bankruptcy marking it as a possible point of no return for onshore wind energy in many areas. Coming back to Mr. Tetlock's research it is highly likely the proposed solar-wind-battery system will face the same issue of a prediction that will never become true. Battery prices seem to stagnate at a far too high level for a possible grid storage for days (!) of electrical consumption.
How much does a car battery cost? After how many years one has to replace the battery? How much does a solar panel cost? In Switzerland to cover a roof with solar panels of an average house it costs 90‘000 $ !!!! And if there is very little sun, in certain areas there‘s lots of fog, no electricity can be generated through a solar panel….
This is simply brilliant. People should pay more attention to Tony. ICE manufacturers, AI, manufacturers in general should be watching out. Otherwise, we will have another Blackberrys, Kodak, Motorola etc moments.
By no means EVs will take over so fast in many markets, the infrastructure is not there, especially for many in bigger cities without a dedicated parking lot with a charger. You cannot compare the smartphone disruption with cars - the infrastructure has not changed, cell towers and wall outlets where there before. Don't forget all the mining required for battery materials which could become more expensive with rising demand. Future predictions are always tricky and most are plain wrong, at the moment the wind industry suffers. Tony Seba's predictions will most likely end like those of 82,000 predictions Prof. Tetlock has analyzed between 1987 and 2003: roughly 85% were wrong. Why would this age better?
@@MultiThibor Tony's predictions are much more likely to age well... because what he predicted over 10 years ago came true, to the exact year... and the same forces are at work! Battery materials are plentiful and, if they are not (cobalt is in this case), are already being replaced by other, common and cheap materials. Yes, mining and refining operations have to keep up with the rising demand, and might temporarily become bottlenecks... which will slow the transition by a year or two at most! The automotive transition started in the early 1900s with NO fuel distribution infrastructure, negligible oil production and refining, and hardly any motorable roads, at a time when things were happening much slower than they do now... and it nevertheless happened in a couple of decades. As to city infrastructure, I have two things to remind you: a) Chinese cities have already installed millions of charging stalls all along their streets and within a couple of years, and some cities in Europe are starting doing the same (although not as aggressively), and b) Tony Seba said it himself: the future of urban transport is NOT personal cars but of on-demand transportation, and this will reduce greatly the number of vehicles in cities. After all, owning a vehicle in a large city is an expensive pain in the neck!
@@MultiThibor Infrastructure is as easy as adding an appliance to your home. Most homes have a dryer/electric oven 240V/30-50 amp plug that can add 30-50 miles/hour, even a standard 120V/15 amp plug can give you 30-40 miles overnight. Mining for materials really depends on ever changing battery components, CATL already produces sodium batteries and lithium mining is blowing up all over the world.
@@Rockster1989 In many places around the world people can't park their car on their own spot - like in Europe or Asia. EVs without a home charger are not very pleasent to use for everyone, to be honestly. Adding charger in apartment builings is often difficult.
Tony Seba. Thank you. Humanity saves humanity via cooperation. Long live the mothers that teach brothers and sisters to be loving builders cooperating with each other and to set aside the infantile jealousies or narcissistic greed.
For those disbelievers in what he is saying, look back at how the cost of long-distance calls has dropped. 40-50 years ago, you could have a monthly bill of hundreds of pre-inflated dollars, now the cost is essentially zero.
Excellent analogy!!!! I didn't think about that one... thanks, I'll owe you royalties! As a foreign student in the USA in the late 70s, I was limited to calling my parents once a month for a few minutes. Nowadays, I could have a visual call with them for an hour a day, every day... if we had that much to tell teach others... and that would cost us NOTHING!
IMO Saudi Audience was listening to him very carefully and respectfully. They understand that within 10-15 years their profits from oil will shrink. On the other hand they are full of money and Mr Seba's visionary could give them the direction in which sectors to move capital and invest in new technologies in order to achieve biggest profits.
Great presentation 👏🏼 Thanks for sharing your ideas, and I hope we see them all in Saudi Arabia. A lot of what you said is in Saudi Vision 2030, and I’m sure the rest will be in Vision 2040 🇸🇦❤️
I think this was one of the best talks given by Tony Seba that I have watched. I recently read the 'Rethinking humanity' thesis which is both inspiring and somewhat of a warning given the recent increase in wars. I do hope he is correct about the disruption that will come in food and agriculture: I think that the other predictions in solar, wind, batteries and EV's are almost unarguable as they are further along their S curve path. To keep hope in our future we need positive narratives so Tony's presentations are a rare oasis of much-needed optimism.
Been following Tony since 2017. Spot on! Question for Tony is whether disruptive patterns will impact social constructs, like conservatism or religions that resist technological advancement?
AI might be "new", but many other disruptions happen in the "background". SWB still provides electricity, no reason to reject it (except windfarms). Precision fermentation still provides proteins (as a precursor for B2B, not as an end product) and your new dairy products feel the same as traditional ones.
During #PhaseChangeDisruptions, new organizing systems emerge that outcompete legacy ones. #OrganizingSystems include prevailing models, belief systems, political, social systems, and so on.
@@tonysebaor more simply put (as you hinted often enough in the presentation) it's the economy stupid (or rather personal well being, if you are right, is there even a need for an economy as we know it)
Just found your Video from the speech from 2017 about PV and EV adoption on Champion Speakers YT channel. Please make a new video now. Just a PPT with you explaining your view on the world now. You nailed it, that was such a great prediction. Can’t wait to hear more from you. I subscribed hoping for more !❤
This is one of the best "TED-talks" ever on the subject and I'm glad it took place in The Kingdom which as SOME people know owns TWO ELECTRIC CAR BRANDS in Lucid and Ceer... So even they know where future is headed... And for the record, Ceer is partnered with BMW and Foxconn two of the largest names in their respective fields which means this is no backyard experiment. They mean to become MENA's Top Automaker and I fully support them in this goal... If you can't beat 'em? Join 'em!
You look at the faces in the audience. What are they thinking? Who is going to be ready for the future, I wonder? Will the shift in technology go with the shift in power? Will Asia be the new superpower? Will Africa transition faster than we with our current technology? As always a great presentation!
This has been my view for a long time. The term "Superpower" will apply to many previously "poor" regions with the resources (sun/ wind) and the foresight to invest early (Morocco as one example) . It's going to be interesting watching the stance of US politicians in 2024. Their success and subsequent actions will have huge impact on the status of the US moving forward. If you're not in the game, you can't win the game.
@@rogerstarkey5390 Germany has "Superpower" sometimes - when wind and sun feed more in the grid than they consume. This electricity is then send abroad for a negative price, yes, Germany is paying them to take useless electricity. By the way, the wind industry is struggeling at the moment - no more superpower? The future will be nuclear and renewables in a 50/50 share, the rest is simply absurd for any industrialized nation.
Why "first"? Peace will further expand in parallel to the diff. disruptions mentioned by Tony. The developed world is already extremely peaceful today compared to it's history. Once the diff. continents are energy independent (thanks to Solar, Wind, and Battery), there are much less reasons for wars and much less audience for extremism. Btw, China and Russia will collapse within 10 years (for demographics and other reasons) and with them all communist countries and dictators. Giving room for Democratic nations and increased global harmony.
Some countries hav already succeeded in doing so, but given the nature of mankind, it will take a few more centuries to spread out, if ever! So, it is definitely NOT going to come first!
For decades I bought almost exclusively Toyotas. However, Toyota still seems to be figuring out which new evolving technology is going to win. Despite the fact that the winner is now obviously EVs. I'm afraid my once favorite car company will soon be non-existent or tiny shadow of its former self. I am of the opinion that this transition is going to happen fast. The EV technology once mature is so much simpler than an internal combustion engine vehicle. It replaced hundreds or thousands of complex parts for engine, transmission, cooling, electrical generation, electric storage, pollution control with a far simpler system of a battery bank, one or two electric motors and some electronics. Even the 12v or 48v power for accessories can simply be drawn from the main battery through well understood power electronics. So EVs will soon be cheaper and better than traditional (ICE) cars. Traditional car manufactures are not well positioned to succeed. They'll have to walk away from their current products to go 100% EV within the next couple years and their stock holders will never allow them to do it. Nor do they have the battery, motor, electronics and software knowledge to transition fast enough. By the time they're competitive with the Chinese EV makers and Tesla they'll be a shadow of their former selves or out of business in my opinion.
Modern engines have an incredible number of finely machined parts made at low cost. Electric motors are so simple in comparison, and batteries have no moving parts. The cost advantage of converting concentrated chemical energy into movement through combustion will be beat with simpler manufacturing and few moving parts.
@@chrisgaul866 Absolutely! 21st century technologies competing with 19th century ones (even if much refined by over a century worth of engineering)... a pretty safe bet!
Toyota CEOs current and in the past are what Tony calls ‘Incumbent mindset’. Stuck on ICE with no common sense to realize hydrogen and fuel cells are going to be bit players in the foreseeable future. Dark times ahead for Toyota.
"It is very hard to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it." (Upton Sinclair). That seems to be true even if his salary (or industry, or lifestyle) threatens his kids' future...
Regarding protein PF he is referring to the company in Finland called Solar food that will go commercial 2024. Solein protein out of thin air “We lead by example. We started the construction of Factory 01 in 2021. We will be ready to produce the world’s most sustainable protein in 2024. And this factory is only the first of many to come.”
Seba doesn’t deal with the limitations of the grid delivering 10x the current electricity demand for electric cars. The number of transformers needed far outstrips manufacturing capability.
Hey, Tony - A judgement on the debt brake means that Germany has reached a peak. Either slow down the transformation and risk prosperity or speed up the transformation and create new prosperity. Please use your reach and your network to explain the unleashing of market forces to the Federal Chancellor, the Vice-Chancellor and the Finance Minister once again. After all, all three are "liberal" at heart - the programme actually suits them perfectly.
Germany will fail with its energy transition, manufacturing, heavy and chemical industries are fleeing that place, populism is on the rise due to high energy costs. Even Meyer-Burger (pv manufacturing) will close down their factory in Saxony - how so, if solar energy is almost free? They could even install their own panels...😂😂😂
For those of you who don't know Tony yet, of course I recommend listening to his conference. But then I also recommend that you watch the video again this time focusing on the attitude of the attendance. You can see slightly mocking smile, arms crossed on chests, disbelief on face expression,... This is the incumbent syndrom at work.
I definitely did notice that. I guess when you're entire existence and generation of wealth is seriously under threat, they were probably planning his 'accidental' demise...
Interestingly - aside from oil disruption, Saudi at one time had the second largest cattle herd in the world - they used underground aquifers to supply water ( which is running out) - and that was in a desert !. That was to make milk - which they consume a lot of.. If they have an alternative ( precision fermentation) - they have plenty of money ( ummm oil !) to create an industry to make it....
#PrecisionFermentation is a potential multi-trillion dollar industry to make not just food but also cosmetics, medicine, materials and more. Disruptions come from the edge - and this opportunity is still up for grabs.
@@tonyseba I think food is a problem area in your talk. The human body adapts slowly to changes and has wonderfully adapted to particularly meat and fat. Even if certain proteins are exactly duplicated, the whole package of, for example, a piece of fatty meat will include enzymes, phytoneutrients, and much more which we cannot "fake" in a petrie dish. We cannot really outsmart nature because we ARE nature, and are deeply intertwined with nature. Many people are curing their bodies in profound ways by moving away from processed foods and back to natural food, and the more natural the better. I hope this makes may point clearly.
Most people in the audience looked very pale after this presentation --> energy cost evolving to zero implies that some parts of the world become irrelevant (again)... Scary for some, but probably true.
Those poor OPEC grifters must have found all this quite upsetting. To hear that their half a century of bleeding the world dry with artificially high oil prices would soon come to an end must have been just awful for them.
Tony giving this presentation from about a year ago to TAQA (in 11 countries for power, oil and gas) in UAE is hilariously funny. The look on their faces says they don’t believe. Bet: will they change their biz model after this? …I say a hard no.
The Saudi minister of oil stuff some years ago: the stone age didn't end because of the lack of stones. They are aware, it's the speed by which it happens that is the mentally hard thing to grasp because we humans have difficulty understanding exponentials.
@@christianvanderstap6257 The world will burn oil for decades to come, decades! From 2004 to 2022, global spending on wind and solar totaled $4.1 trillion, yet hydrocarbon use increased 3.4x faster.
What I fear, is the effect of geopolitical disruption in the absence of a de facto rules based global order. Historically, humanity has *never* managed power disruptions without violence and war on a scale matching the scale of the disruption. In that context, the current state of the rules-based global order is beyond worrisome. Even worse, the cheerleaders of geopolitical "multipolarity", who, obviously, have no clue about how multipolarity always equal war within a realist framework (as in the absence of rules-based order) appears to be gaining ground, while at the same time failing to understand that the only path they offer, is the short-cut to nuclear catastrophe.
Livestock as a part of regenerative agriculture is strongly required to quickly regenerate disturbed by historical agricultural activities topsoil biodiversity and fertility, improve heat and water stress adaptation of ecosystems by mimicking natural processes. Precision fermentation will not occur if it can not supported by resources from agriculture (regenerative one). It is needed to think about double disruption and divergence of current agriculture land and life degraded practises into regenerative agriculture (to obtain row material) and precision fermentation (to produce applicable food)
Right on! As much as I appreciate Tony Seba, and as much I owe to him (HE made me aware, in early 2013, of the potential of a start-up company, then called Tesla Motors, in which I significantly invested...plenty early enough!), as much I must say that there is something missing in his presentations about the disruption of agriculture. And that is the indispensable role of livestock (in extensive, obviously not intensive breeding and raising) in agriculture in general, and for many many regions and cultures in particular.
As demand declines the most expensive wells will be shut down IE deep water Production and demand cycles will continue with more wells shut down Eventually the cheapest oil will survive Saudi oil can almost be pumped into your car About 2 bucks a barrel is their cost
1400 years ago Arabs take/translate western (Greek) knowledge and run/improve on them. Now is good time to repeat and not only in energy. Go for it. It is your destiny.
Could the Saudis stretch out the EV adoption curve by increasing supply and lowering oil prices to the $40 to $50 per barrel range? I would think that this strategy would slow the EV adoption rate … especially for SUV and Truck users. A drop in diesel prices would be a big help to curb inflation since it powers boats, trains and trucks.
Is there a link to get the slides so you can spend more time on them? I'll be interested to see a blind taste test and nutritional analysis comparison of a cow steak vs. a precision fermentation steak!
Curious to see grid disruption. Disruptive use of electricity on a very aging grid will literally cause rupture... not to mention energy needed to replace fossil fuel based energy.
The Saudis know that they have all their eggs in one basket so it only makes sense that they are the most interested in an alternate energy source. Especially one involving the sun when they live in a giant dessert.
@tonyseba Liked it, but a half hour is too short for containing all you have to say. It's great for a review, but if it's the first time someone has seen this info, it becomes too disjoint. 1 hour works better.
I sometimes worry that the Rethink forecast will move faster if it is under the radar. The future unrolls for reasons of purely economic self-interest, free so far of the obstructionists attacking to slow it down.
Then why is Germany going through a crisis with almost 30,000 wind turbines and more than 60 GW of pv? Sun and wind are free, turning them into a reliable supply of electricity 24/7 definitely is not. Wind power is actually rising in costs and many projects are canceled. Sun and wind are medieval sources of energy with an extremely low power density requiring vast amounts of raw materials like copper and steel to utilize them. Since generation and consumption (not all places are suitable for wind turbines) are often far away the distribution of power needs enormous upgrades. In Germany the "grid development plan" estimates 237 Billion (!) € of investments into the 380 kV grid, the 110 kV grid needs upgrades in the "triple digit Billion €" range. Financing this over consumer bills until 2030 would increase the kWh price beyond 50 ct - totally insane 😮. Presentations like these are only looking at isolated aspects and are not at the whole system. France is building 14 new NPPs from 2024 onwards - but, hey, they will be disrupted... Bulgaria, Ukraine, Poland and Slovenia are signing a memorandum of understanding with Westinghouse for their AP-1000 plant. Everything is wrong about them...😅😅😅
I would like to hear more about food production. It's interesting that Kimball Musk is involved in innovative food production while Elon is in Energy and robotics. I would love to hear some speculation on what they might be up to.
How's China doing strip mining Aftica, Mongolia and Chile of their semiprecious metals for your car batteries? How many children die daily in African Mines?
@@MarkSpohr It won't happen so fast, by no means. Use of energy from hydrocarbons 2004: 384 EJ Use of energy from hydrocarbons 2002: 494 EJ despite of $4.1 trillion invested in wind and solar
Everything in society approaches zero marginal cost except for housing. Rent for a studio apartment is expected to be $4K by 2040 in the US. Minimum wage will still be $7.25/hr. A ride to your soul destroying job in an autonomous vehicle at that point will be about 0.02¢/mile. Housing will be the last thing that gets addressed.
That’s why legislation just got passed in the US that large investment companies must divest themselves of residential housing. The trend has changed the model of citizens owning their own homes, which is the foundation of middle class assets. Capitalism without guardrails will always lead to unsustainable accumulation of wealth to a few percent. The “ Monopoly game needs an adjustment or it can’t be sustained. Even Warren Buffet recognizes that the wealth gap as jeopardizing the game he’s prospered from his entire career.
Parking space is not gonna be used no more with Taas, that government sells 30 m² plots and put a city cocon on it. A cool small living unit. Look at the great Belgian architect Vincent Callebaut amazing PLUS-ENERGY HOMELESS SHELTERS. In Paris, France
My understanding is it’s expected that EV batteries will outlast the cars. They’re talking of second life uses for them. LFP batteries are now being used that are safer, to the point worrying about fires isn’t justified.
You need to take another look at the data. EV fires are 100x less likely than ICE fires. The big difference is that your local fire dept probably hasn't had the training or the tools to put them out properly, so they get a lot of press. The standard EV has an 8 year battery warranty. Most batteries last longer, then you actually get money from them because they still have another life as storage batteries.
@@AKJammer1 I’m amazed at the level of opposition EVs generate within certain people. It’s like you were talking about flying cars rather than just battery propulsion, which is hardly revolutionary. It’s even worse for self-driving software, which I also support, since it can’t help but be safer than very fallible humans, some of whom shouldn’t even be in a car. Sooner or later an autonomous car will kill someone and that news will be broadcast worldwide, with attendant calls to ban it etc, but my take would be - how many faulty human drivers have killed people the same day, the difference being that the software will be fixed, and won’t do it again.
There are a few Teslas out there with a million miles on them. Have you ever owned a car long enough to put that many miles on it? The battery life is a non issue. The fire issue is also a myth. I have bought three Teslas now. I will never drive anything else.
I'm totally onboard with all of this except the precision fermentation bit. For energy, EVs and AI we are talking about superior technologies taking over. Goop (or whatever you prefer to call it) on the other hand from precision fermentation is an inferior product. It is unlikely to be acceptable to humans. because it is just another UPF (ultra processed food), and the consensus is that these foods are incredibly bad for our health. I guess we might end up feeding them to livestock, but even that is a bit of a stretch again for the same health reasons.
Exactly why replace a perfect food that are body is designed to eat, as in beef, to replace it with processed garbage so that more of our lifeline is owned by big agriculture or big pharma. Tony should stay in his lane. When it comes to optimal human nutrition he has no idea of what he is talking about.
@@MoDa87 I buy from local farmers. I support local, 100 mile diet. It is about optimal health. We are designed to eat ruminant animals. Many are managing health issues by just eating meat and nothing else. They no longer need any medication. There are beneficial amino acids and fatty acids that does not exist any other food. It is the most nutrient dense food available.
Excellent work Tony. One argument an electrical engineer mentioned to me was the bad state of the old cooper electrical grid on every continent. That infrastructure needs massive upgrades to delivery from the solar farms and megapacks. What's your response?
Fragment ("invert") the "grid". . Solar on buildings, local Wind. Megapack at the end of the street/ within the factory. . Local distribution. . Tesla Texas as an example. (When complete, 70,000 panels, 65 Megapacks) . You can still have a distribution grid, but working "back to front" as required, with energy being sent *by* the end user to the grid. Very much like the internet. One node fails, there are other connections to supplement the supply.
Transmission takes a long time to build. It is needed to move energy from where it is generated to where it is consumed. With solar panels every roof and parking lot can be a power generator next to the load. It may be cheaper to construct a big solar array on a greenfield site, but if the grid cannot carry electricity to loads the lower projects meaningless. Put solar in the already built environment and society saves the time and cost of transmission.
This is more like the work of an utopian than rather someone with sensible knowledge about electrical grids and power distribution. Germany alone has estimated costs of 600 Billion (!) € to uprade their grid to work with 100% renewables, that is simply absurd. What many people without knowledge do not know are required conditions to operate an electrical grid safely and reliable: 1. spinning reserve or instantaneos reserve for immediate frequency support 2. black start capabilities (wind and solar need a grid to synchronize, in Europe pv inverters have to follow the DIN VDE 4105 which prohibits island operation) 3. control of reactive power Solar is useless in many of these terms, making grids unstable if it is the main source. Despite of falling prices, batteries are insanly expensive even for one night of storage on a grid scale - this includes transport and industry as well. At the moment, Germany has roughly 10 GWh of battery storage. For one night in the summer (without wind, sometimes common in heat waves) they would need roughly 500 GWh - 50 times the actual capacity. Material use? Staff the put them in service? Sounds a bit too ambitious. Tony made predictions about SWB being the cheapest form of energy, but there is small problem: wind energy is pretty crippled, almost dead at the moment. Why? Because wind and sun are medieval sources of energy with a super low energy density and therefore a huge requirement in material use, if material prices rise, wind and sun will become exepensive. I've got nothing againt solar pv, on my roof there is a 6.6 kWp system and a 10.75 kWh battery in the basement, installed ourselves, but running everything in northern countries only with those two power sources (wind and sun) is absurd. Look at electricity prices in Germany, California and Denmark - more volatile renewables, higher energy prices. And especially in Germany their government is going to collapse due to utopian green projects, making hydrogen from wind energy (projects cancelled due to high costs), building batteries for grid storage which is useless for several cloudy days in row without wind (3 weeks last december!) requiring CCGT plants "hydrogen ready" to backup the grid. People are sick of it - where are engineers from real life to judge things from the point of practicality and not fancy presenters with colorful PowerPoint charts.
The key is, that the grid function and usage evolves: Before: ALL electricity produced at large powerplants and distributed everywhere via HV grid to consumers. After SWB: MOST electricity produced locally by everone owning a roof. Local "leftovers" are distributed by the HV grid. The new SWB grid does not need the functionality that was required before. To avoid stranded investments, its much better to invest in distributed SWB than in a upgraded grid.
@@walterholaus6891 SWB is a pipe dream in industrialized nations with high energy usage, to cover winter months with nearly zero sunshine and often weeks with hardly any wind Germany would have to increase its storage capacity from 10 GWh (battery storage) to roughly 30.000 GWh - which is simply impossible, power plants would still be required for black starts simply to synchronize all wind and pv systems on the power grid which they can't. People dreaming from SWB are far away from reality.
28:13 "In my estimation, we haven't seen transformation of humanity this big since..." I was sure he was going to say The Industrial Revolution 200 to 250 years ago. That'd be a pretty big deal, right? Nope: "...the first domestication of plants and animals ten thousand years ago." 😲 So as big as the change from bands of hunter-gatherers to farming communities. Oh, is that all? Buckle your seatbelts, folks!
It is 2023, we don't need any cuts to see how the crowd is paying attention to the speaker. I don't care how cute the girl/handsome the guy is in the crowd.
On the broad macro level; Tony Seba is correct and these changes will be HUGE in our cultures. Trying to delve into what they mean on ever more micro levels of society boggles my mind. What will our culture/societies look like ten or twenty years from now ? Tony doesn't address the latest, and perhaps the most major disruption, of AI and AGI.
Listen again. It is replacing animal milk protein with identical fermentation sourced protein. Not close, but identical. Likewise with beef. The replacement will be of highly processed animal ground beef with fermented ground beef.
So, the fact that adding more solar and wind power generation beyond what's required on the best days will decrease the need for storage isn't immediately obvious even for some very intelligent people? I mean, if a given amount of solar and wind just covers half the need in the worst month of the year, twice that amount of solar and wind will cover the whole need that worst moth of the year, and generate more than needed the rest of the year, to me that's obvious. Even at an average 100% over production, new solar and wind will be much cheaper per unit of used energy than new nuclear power. And can be built in a fraction of the time, and as a system is much much more reliable.
@@MoDa87 Hopefully whatever is most beneficial in the given situation, there are plenty of good things we could do if we have a lot of "spare energy" most of the time. Many industrial processes of which energy is a big part of the total cost might adjust to increase or decrease production with variations in the cost of that energy. Producing hydrogen could be one option, if the hydrogen is used for things like replacing natural gas in production of nitrogen fertilizer. Storing nitrogen fertilizer is easy, storing hydrogen to use as fuel isn't commercially viable, and won't be, even if we had all the free energy needed, for months at a time, storing hydrogen would remain an absurdly impractical option. Even if we wanted to use hydrogen later, turning it in to some other fuel, and then back to hydrogen would be a much better option than storing plain hydrogen for later use, at an industrial scale. But, with very cheap energy we could produce a lot of cheap fossil fuel free nitrogen fertilizer, aluminium, iron and cement, just to name a few examples.
00:05 Los próximos 15 a 20 años serán los más perturbadores de la historia. 03:07 Las tecnologías disruptivas conducen a cambios de fase en la industria. 08:58 Las personas y las empresas inteligentes a menudo no ven la próxima disrupción debido a su mentalidad tradicional. 11:36 La industria del transporte está experimentando una gran disrupción debido al auge de los vehículos eléctricos. 17:18 La transición a la energía solar y eólica se está produciendo según lo previsto, lo que se traduce en fuentes de energía más baratas. 19:48 El diseño de sistemas de energía eólica centrándose en maximizar la generación de energía durante todo el año puede alimentar varias regiones con un sistema de batería eólica 100% solar. 24:51 El costo del PF ha disminuido significativamente y se prevé que alcance el dólar por kilo en 2030. 27:24 Las proteínas dulces son mil veces más dulces que el azúcar de caña, lo que las convierte en un posible sustituto del azúcar. 00:00 TAQA celebra su 20º aniversario en Dhahran, Arabia Saudita
But you're comparing a Tesla on the high end and China on the low price. I highly doubt a 200 mile range BYD car was ever $80k. And you don't know if the Chinese market is subsidized. It probably is. Not to poopoo the power of disruption, it's a very real thing. It's ok his his projections are off on amount or timing or both. Disruption does happen in short periods of time and often kill incumbent powers.
Not sure EV trucks will work. They need gigantic batteries, which are heavy, and subtract to the carrying capacity of the truck. Also, many trucks travel twice the 200-250 miles range, and it take too long to recharge.
@@MarkSpohr Yes, you are absolutely correct. I just would like to see how efficient they are and how the batteries will degrade. My experience with a small EV, driving at Highway speed decrees greatly the range.
@@carlospadilla7296 EV trucks are still away for many years. A "megacharger" uses 1 MW - simply absurd putting them up in many places around the globe on major places, there is simply no transmission infrastructure ready for these high loads.
@@MultiThibor Totally agree, perhaps with with Solar Panels, it could be done, without the need for transmission lines. My limited experience with battery degradation (I have a small BMW i3 for 5 years, and had to replace the battery), we are still learning how long batteries really last: What's the effect of fast charging? Is it bad to have full discharges? Or shall we charge more often? Can different chemistries alleviate the problem? or improve the amount of cycles?. Therefore, still much to learn and different groups have distinct points of view (Tesla says one thing, BWW disagree). We will lean more with TIME.... Time to see how long they really last and understand all the variables. So to mandate, by "X" year, no more ICE vehicle, it's not realistic, it's silly...
I love everything Seba does, but I have beef with Super Power. As we know from his God Parity principle, on-site generation at some point becomes cheaper than the cost of transmission, and later, the cost of over-generation and storage becomes more affordable than transmission. I don't care how free the Superpower is; it won't be worth building a 5x transmission to send it anywhere for part-time use. So, users such as steel, hydrogen, or crypto will have to be co-located to avoid the delays and costs of transmission. But wait, it gets worse. Superpower is free but intermittent. The uptime varies, but this 90+% Superpower is only slightly over demand, so the number of days the Superpower is truly 3-5x will be much fewer. But wait, it gets worse. Most energy-intensive industries are actually capital-intensive, run 24-7-365, and have expensive distance-dependent supply chains. That is, it costs more to build and supply and staff and maintain a facility than it costs in electricity to run it. No one likes to pay a mortgage on an asset that sits idle. No one wants to dramatically increase freight to get a better price on the energy. No one wants to schedule workers and intermittent day here or there for a few hours at a time. So, there will be a few use cases where a co-located heavy energy user (like crypto) benefits from free off-peak power, but it is likely to still be more cost-effective to pay peak rates than shut the thing down and twiddle thumbs. I see it co-located with a few niche use cases where power is the dominant expense over all else. The idea that we will have a widespread centralized superpower transmitted everywhere that entire industries will become intermittent to take advantage of is unreasonable. Heavy industry is about to go renewable, but on the same 'firm power' basis everyone else runs on. But wait, it gets worse. We learn that the process of curtailment in power markets is caused by bad contracts or generation sources that are expensive to shut down. But renewables are cheap or free to shut down, provided there is no contract that requires the un-needed power to be sold anyway. So why do we curtail free wind and solar and keep nuclear running? Even though it is cheaper to run, it is also cheaper to shut off. You are now telling me that a power company is gonna have all this free power they can easily shut off, with no risk or customers to fuss with, and instead make on-site deals to offload it to get paid...... nothing? Why not just shut them off? The cost of having a superpower off-take system must include the risks and hassle of selling away power that you could have just shut off for free. So what we end up with is the same sort of systems we see now - peak prices and near-zero off peak prices, with transmission costs avoided for co-location, which are largely ignored by nearly everyone because electricity costs are trending to lower anyway. Power matches to demand and the rest is curtailed or wasted on-site, maybe to crypto and hydrogen, if those capital costs are low enough.
To add a bit of context - I think the concept is one of de-centralised superpower - it is more or less available everywhere, without a massive generating station. Adding in ( and Tony Seba has done the calcs) a large local battery storage component can make this feasible...
Good questions. But things are moving in this direction nevertheless. The more appliances are found for superpower, the less it has to be sold for nothing or curtailed. Easy options for superpower: desalination of water, pumped-storage of water, pumping fresh water over great distances, making hydrogen or ammonia. How big factories will adept, who knows.
But a butterfly is not just a faster caterpillar. You're applying excess electricity to todays industry. But the real question is what does society do with intermittent nearly free electricity? I don't think we'll know till we get there and the world's entrepreneurs have had their chance. I suspect new industries will emerge. Maybe excess solar used to create methane to provide nearly free space flight? Disrupting another transportation segment. Or AI or computer problem solving only when excess power is available. Who knows what creativity will unleash given new conditions.
In terms of Superpower, there will be an incentive to build out the network to transport this excess energy. One of the obvious options is to use electrolysis for hydrogen. But one other application of all this potential hydrogen is as a feed stock for chemicals. e.g making plastics, new materials, drugs etc There is also the ability to use this excess energy to manufacture cement and aggregate etc to build the infrastructure of the future. Point being, there is an incentive to go further and go after superpower cos it's an enabler of so much else Also to add..Crypto is absolute nonsense. Ignore it. @@rogerstarkey5390
I agree that he should hire someone, maybe James Stephenson (?), to improve on his graphs. But, having said this, he does convey his message brilliantly!
![The Great Transformation [Part 3] - The #Disruption of #Energy](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/fsnkPLkf1ao/mqdefault.jpg)
![The Great Transformation [Part 3] - The #Disruption of #Energy](/img/tr.png)
![The Great Transformation [Part 1] - Patterns of Change, Key Technologies & #PhaseChangeDisruption](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/z7vhMcKvHo8/mqdefault.jpg)
Tony Seba presenting to Saudis about the energy transition is the meta version of Steve Jobs presenting to a room full of Motorola and Nokia execs about smartphones 😂
Saudis are and have been diversifying so small wonder they listen to Tony.
The Saudis has been smart about diversification and creating new ways to have a more sustainable economic model. For example they had great strides is agriculture, food production. They were smart enough to have Tony there and they knew about Tony's ideas, so I give them tons of credits.
The Saudis own the planet, including the US.
I mean Saudi has unlimited solar potential. They will be right at the beginning of this all
@@MoDa87 Saudis are building the world's biggest solar farm or one of the biggest.
Brave to present to an audience with the most to lose, fantastic !
Read my mind. Those guys in Turbins looked pissed😅.
You actually see them not give a damn and thinking "This won't happen any time soon. Do you have any idea how much oil I sell?"
no...they have the most to gain if they have a deep understanding of this transition..
Did you see him emphasize the Food transformation for this audience? Imagine Saudi Arabia bringing nutritious, protein-rich and tasty (sweet) food at scale at very affordable (near zero) rates to the entire region in maybe 10 years.
(Hunger and food scarcity are going to be even more pressing issues as Climate Change progresses.) "Blessed" indeed is the country that is not just the birthplace of an important religion, but also is a huge part in solving one of the most basic and essential of human needs.
Another excellent presentation from Tony Seba.
Well Saudi Arabia will lose in Hydrocarbon exports but gain in solar energy and food production. Overall it will be a positive for them because they have been investing big in this new economy already. Well their religous tourism money is not going anywhere.
One thing I find fascinating is how disruption arises from changing conditions. You can’t force a disruption, and you can’t prevent a disruption. It crosses very quickly from “impossible” to “inevitable”.
❤❤❤❤❤❤
I’m not sure you can’t prevent one. In fact I’ll go further and say that, without China there not playing by Western rules, big auto and big oil would have tried to do just that. And probably held back the EV revolution.
the market decides
@@rctezluh42069 The equilibrium economics that most people mean when they say “market” doesn’t account for disruption. It’s like how Henry Ford supposedly said that if he asked consumers what they wanted, they’d have said “faster horses”. This also means that targeted market optimizations can’t fundamentally change a market. For example, solar power became viable because it was heavily subsidized long enough to get manufacturing economies of scale to kick in. Now it’s cheaper than fossil fuels on merit and subsidies aren’t needed. But equilibrium “market” economics says subsidies are bad, and carbon taxes are better because market. But no politically feasible carbon tax would ever have made solar panels cost competitive (much less a “free market”, which is in no way free). They needed an initial boost to become viable. NOW the market is deciding solar is better, because solar is cheaper - because it is.
As an aside, I’m reminded of Peter Thiel’s observation in his book “Zero to One”, that in the theoretically ideal “free market” of economists and politicians, profit is impossible, as perfect competition drives everything to zero. Profit, especially the huge profits that venture capitalists like Thiel seek, are only possible when the competition is imperfect - when there is a unique value proposition that can’t be replicated more cheaply by “competition”.
Very well put!
Tony has the cristal ball of the future. Pass this golden presentation to your teenagers.
I’ve sent my young adult kids Tony’s videos about 8 months ago with him giving basically the same presentation. The fact it’s TAQA in UAE is hilariously funny. The look on their faces says they don’t believe. See if that group changes anything about their future plans after this. Bet is a Hard no.
Cute, she said "Good Luck" as he came on to the stage. Luck has nothing to do with t. It is data, data, data! Good video as always! 🇨🇦
I wonder if she was referring to the possibility that the large number of middle eastern people make them a hostile audience? A lot to lose if oil becomes less relevant. I believe that oil will always have relevance because of chemicals, plastics and lubricants.
@@randallsmith7885He is in the Lions den. Hope they take note of the non oil opportunities.
@@randallsmith7885I'm not so sure. If Seba and RethinkX are correct with their predictions we'll arrive in an era of overabundance of energy. That also means cheaper production of synthetics from any source, really, even the carbon in the very air we breath.
@@MattCasters fair point. Disruptions are possible for those other oil based products.
@@lesbendo6363 I checked the event. It is TAQA 20th anniversary, which is Abu Dhabi’s electric and water utility and are also in the oil and gas business. I have to assume that
Their CEO is a forward thinking person who wants to get the executives’ minds thinking about the future.
Tony has been speaking his thoughts for 15 + years. People r finally starting to listen…..
@beegdawg007He’s been proven correct so it’s hard to argue with success.
Humans negativity bias has also been proven so while you’ve focused on the negative, things like global poverty have reduced dramatically and cost of solar energy has dropped 90%.
In my 60 years I’ve heard nothing but doomsday predictions that never come true. It seems no one likes good news.
Notice that Tesla is advancing in 4 of the 5 areas: Transportation (Vehicles), Energy (MegaPacks), Intellence/AI (FSD), Labor (Tesla Bot)
Exactly, and Tesla is killing it in all those areas. Disruption at it's finest!
Which companies are strong in the food disruption (precision fermentation)? Which names should I add to my watch list?
“It’s just a car company” 😂😂😂
But…. there will competition…… soon…….maybe….
@@mik2137Kimbal Musk is in the food industry…
@@mik2137Upside Foods my friend - they’re slaying it. And yes, Kimbal Musk is very likely to move into this space 🎉🎉🎉🎉
Fun to imagine heads silently exploding around the room as the realization sinks in!
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Look at projects in the area. They're already on board.
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Some folk can see what’s going to happen decades before it happens. In this era it’s Tony Seba doing the predicting, and predominately Elon Musk delivering the disruption, on an EPIC, global scale 👊
Some don't see the evidence even if it is presented in front of their eyes, the predictions he made 10 years ago about prices are now a reality, not fantasies.
@beegdawg007You are absolutely right, I have another number for you: Philip Tetlock once analyzed 82,000 predictions from hundreds of experts, almost none became reality. Why?
Our world is a complex machine of many non-linear interferences.
One example: The almost effortless expansion of wind energy, onshore wind, came to a grinding stop. Assumptions and fundamentals valid a decade ago have changed, higher interest rates, higher material costs and increased labor costs have a devastating impact on volatile (non dispatchable) energy generation. Europe's biggest onshore wind farm in Sweden has faced a bankruptcy marking it as a possible point of no return for onshore wind energy in many areas.
Coming back to Mr. Tetlock's research it is highly likely the proposed solar-wind-battery system will face the same issue of a prediction that will never become true. Battery prices seem to stagnate at a far too high level for a possible grid storage for days (!) of electrical consumption.
sun's power as the great equilibrium of all of us :)
Great! thanks for your quality content.
How much does a car battery cost? After how many years one has to replace the battery? How much does a solar panel cost? In Switzerland to cover a roof with solar panels of an average house it costs 90‘000 $ !!!! And if there is very little sun, in certain areas there‘s lots of fog, no electricity can be generated through a solar panel….
This is simply brilliant. People should pay more attention to Tony. ICE manufacturers, AI, manufacturers in general should be watching out. Otherwise, we will have another Blackberrys, Kodak, Motorola etc moments.
By no means EVs will take over so fast in many markets, the infrastructure is not there, especially for many in bigger cities without a dedicated parking lot with a charger.
You cannot compare the smartphone disruption with cars - the infrastructure has not changed, cell towers and wall outlets where there before.
Don't forget all the mining required for battery materials which could become more expensive with rising demand.
Future predictions are always tricky and most are plain wrong, at the moment the wind industry suffers.
Tony Seba's predictions will most likely end like those of 82,000 predictions Prof. Tetlock has analyzed between 1987 and 2003: roughly 85% were wrong. Why would this age better?
@@MultiThibor Tony's predictions are much more likely to age well... because what he predicted over 10 years ago came true, to the exact year... and the same forces are at work!
Battery materials are plentiful and, if they are not (cobalt is in this case), are already being replaced by other, common and cheap materials. Yes, mining and refining operations have to keep up with the rising demand, and might temporarily become bottlenecks... which will slow the transition by a year or two at most!
The automotive transition started in the early 1900s with NO fuel distribution infrastructure, negligible oil production and refining, and hardly any motorable roads, at a time when things were happening much slower than they do now... and it nevertheless happened in a couple of decades.
As to city infrastructure, I have two things to remind you: a) Chinese cities have already installed millions of charging stalls all along their streets and within a couple of years, and some cities in Europe are starting doing the same (although not as aggressively), and b) Tony Seba said it himself: the future of urban transport is NOT personal cars but of on-demand transportation, and this will reduce greatly the number of vehicles in cities. After all, owning a vehicle in a large city is an expensive pain in the neck!
@@MultiThibor Infrastructure is as easy as adding an appliance to your home. Most homes have a dryer/electric oven 240V/30-50 amp plug that can add 30-50 miles/hour, even a standard 120V/15 amp plug can give you 30-40 miles overnight. Mining for materials really depends on ever changing battery components, CATL already produces sodium batteries and lithium mining is blowing up all over the world.
@@Rockster1989 In many places around the world people can't park their car on their own spot - like in Europe or Asia.
EVs without a home charger are not very pleasent to use for everyone, to be honestly.
Adding charger in apartment builings is often difficult.
Super abundance and zero cost, now where have we heard that before? We are such a caring sharing species, that it is sure to benefit all of us.
Tony Seba. Thank you. Humanity saves humanity via cooperation. Long live the mothers that teach brothers and sisters to be loving builders cooperating with each other and to set aside the infantile jealousies or narcissistic greed.
For those disbelievers in what he is saying, look back at how the cost of long-distance calls has dropped. 40-50 years ago, you could have a monthly bill of hundreds of pre-inflated dollars, now the cost is essentially zero.
Excellent analogy!!!! I didn't think about that one... thanks, I'll owe you royalties!
As a foreign student in the USA in the late 70s, I was limited to calling my parents once a month for a few minutes. Nowadays, I could have a visual call with them for an hour a day, every day... if we had that much to tell teach others... and that would cost us NOTHING!
@@st-ex8506got I remember that.
Thanks for sharing,Tony.
IMO Saudi Audience was listening to him very carefully and respectfully. They understand that within 10-15 years their profits from oil will shrink. On the other hand they are full of money and Mr Seba's visionary could give them the direction in which sectors to move capital and invest in new technologies in order to achieve biggest profits.
Great presentation 👏🏼
Thanks for sharing your ideas, and I hope we see them all in Saudi Arabia.
A lot of what you said is in Saudi Vision 2030, and I’m sure the rest will be in Vision 2040 🇸🇦❤️
I think this was one of the best talks given by Tony Seba that I have watched. I recently read the 'Rethinking humanity' thesis which is both inspiring and somewhat of a warning given the recent increase in wars. I do hope he is correct about the disruption that will come in food and agriculture: I think that the other predictions in solar, wind, batteries and EV's are almost unarguable as they are further along their S curve path. To keep hope in our future we need positive narratives so Tony's presentations are a rare oasis of much-needed optimism.
Been following Tony since 2017. Spot on! Question for Tony is whether disruptive patterns will impact social constructs, like conservatism or religions that resist technological advancement?
Me tooo - Main reason i Invested in TSLA ☺️
AI might be "new", but many other disruptions happen in the "background". SWB still provides electricity, no reason to reject it (except windfarms). Precision fermentation still provides proteins (as a precursor for B2B, not as an end product) and your new dairy products feel the same as traditional ones.
Politics as well how will nations govern these disruptions a lot money will exchange hands and a lot of countries maybe not accepting the disruption.
During #PhaseChangeDisruptions, new organizing systems emerge that outcompete legacy ones. #OrganizingSystems include prevailing models, belief systems, political, social systems, and so on.
@@tonysebaor more simply put (as you hinted often enough in the presentation) it's the economy stupid (or rather personal well being, if you are right, is there even a need for an economy as we know it)
Just found your Video from the speech from 2017 about PV and EV adoption on Champion Speakers YT channel. Please make a new video now. Just a PPT with you explaining your view on the world now. You nailed it, that was such a great prediction. Can’t wait to hear more from you. I subscribed hoping for more !❤
This is one of the best "TED-talks" ever on the subject and I'm glad it took place in The Kingdom which as SOME people know owns TWO ELECTRIC CAR BRANDS in Lucid and Ceer... So even they know where future is headed... And for the record, Ceer is partnered with BMW and Foxconn two of the largest names in their respective fields which means this is no backyard experiment. They mean to become MENA's Top Automaker and I fully support them in this goal... If you can't beat 'em? Join 'em!
You look at the faces in the audience. What are they thinking? Who is going to be ready for the future, I wonder? Will the shift in technology go with the shift in power? Will Asia be the new superpower? Will Africa transition faster than we with our current technology?
As always a great presentation!
This has been my view for a long time.
The term "Superpower" will apply to many previously "poor" regions with the resources (sun/ wind) and the foresight to invest early (Morocco as one example)
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It's going to be interesting watching the stance of US politicians in 2024.
Their success and subsequent actions will have huge impact on the status of the US moving forward.
If you're not in the game, you can't win the game.
@@rogerstarkey5390 Germany has "Superpower" sometimes - when wind and sun feed more in the grid than they consume. This electricity is then send abroad for a negative price, yes, Germany is paying them to take useless electricity.
By the way, the wind industry is struggeling at the moment - no more superpower?
The future will be nuclear and renewables in a 50/50 share, the rest is simply absurd for any industrialized nation.
I’m trying to process this in a way that I can best advise my 16 year-old on life planning.
Cheers Mr Seba
Woukd be great if we could learn to live in peace first.
ha. we'll have to. How awful! lol
Perhaps we should evaluate nations / regions / religions on that basis and have a world peace council to sort out the outliers...
Why "first"? Peace will further expand in parallel to the diff. disruptions mentioned by Tony. The developed world is already extremely peaceful today compared to it's history.
Once the diff. continents are energy independent (thanks to Solar, Wind, and Battery), there are much less reasons for wars and much less audience for extremism.
Btw, China and Russia will collapse within 10 years (for demographics and other reasons) and with them all communist countries and dictators. Giving room for Democratic nations and increased global harmony.
Some countries hav already succeeded in doing so, but given the nature of mankind, it will take a few more centuries to spread out, if ever! So, it is definitely NOT going to come first!
For decades I bought almost exclusively Toyotas. However, Toyota still seems to be figuring out which new evolving technology is going to win. Despite the fact that the winner is now obviously EVs. I'm afraid my once favorite car company will soon be non-existent or tiny shadow of its former self. I am of the opinion that this transition is going to happen fast. The EV technology once mature is so much simpler than an internal combustion engine vehicle. It replaced hundreds or thousands of complex parts for engine, transmission, cooling, electrical generation, electric storage, pollution control with a far simpler system of a battery bank, one or two electric motors and some electronics. Even the 12v or 48v power for accessories can simply be drawn from the main battery through well understood power electronics. So EVs will soon be cheaper and better than traditional (ICE) cars. Traditional car manufactures are not well positioned to succeed. They'll have to walk away from their current products to go 100% EV within the next couple years and their stock holders will never allow them to do it. Nor do they have the battery, motor, electronics and software knowledge to transition fast enough. By the time they're competitive with the Chinese EV makers and Tesla they'll be a shadow of their former selves or out of business in my opinion.
Modern engines have an incredible number of finely machined parts made at low cost. Electric motors are so simple in comparison, and batteries have no moving parts. The cost advantage of converting concentrated chemical energy into movement through combustion will be beat with simpler manufacturing and few moving parts.
@@chrisgaul866 Absolutely! 21st century technologies competing with 19th century ones (even if much refined by over a century worth of engineering)... a pretty safe bet!
Toyota CEOs current and in the past are what Tony calls ‘Incumbent mindset’. Stuck on ICE with no common sense to realize hydrogen and fuel cells are going to be bit players in the foreseeable future. Dark times ahead for Toyota.
"It is very hard to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it." (Upton Sinclair). That seems to be true even if his salary (or industry, or lifestyle) threatens his kids' future...
13:56 Economics are changing for sustainability 😊😊😊
4:53 I've seen most of the others in previous talks, but this is a new one for me. Brilliant in its clarity.
Regarding protein PF he is referring to the company in Finland called Solar food that will go commercial 2024. Solein protein out of thin air
“We lead by example. We started the construction of Factory 01 in 2021. We will be ready to produce the world’s most sustainable protein in 2024. And this factory is only the first of many to come.”
If we could do this *and* solve climate change we’d be golden.
A new age of freedom! And a new task for humanity. Research Carbon Quantitative Easing and the Global Carbon Reward.
Seba doesn’t deal with the limitations of the grid delivering 10x the current electricity demand for electric cars. The number of transformers needed far outstrips manufacturing capability.
right audience. Fossil fuel kings told that your days are numbered!
If you actually research, you'll see they are WAY ahead of "certain other regions" (guess who?)
Hey, Tony - A judgement on the debt brake means that Germany has reached a peak. Either slow down the transformation and risk prosperity or speed up the transformation and create new prosperity. Please use your reach and your network to explain the unleashing of market forces to the Federal Chancellor, the Vice-Chancellor and the Finance Minister once again. After all, all three are "liberal" at heart - the programme actually suits them perfectly.
Germany will fail with its energy transition, manufacturing, heavy and chemical industries are fleeing that place, populism is on the rise due to high energy costs.
Even Meyer-Burger (pv manufacturing) will close down their factory in Saxony - how so, if solar energy is almost free? They could even install their own panels...😂😂😂
Ok i need to remember this term, precision fermentation. Going to throw a party when the meat and dairy industries collapse!
I can't help thinking beer....
2 years to go...
Which companies should we watch reg. Precision fermentation?
For those of you who don't know Tony yet, of course I recommend listening to his conference. But then I also recommend that you watch the video again this time focusing on the attitude of the attendance. You can see slightly mocking smile, arms crossed on chests, disbelief on face expression,... This is the incumbent syndrom at work.
I definitely did notice that. I guess when you're entire existence and generation of wealth is seriously under threat, they were probably planning his 'accidental' demise...
Interestingly - aside from oil disruption, Saudi at one time had the second largest cattle herd in the world - they used underground aquifers to supply water ( which is running out) - and that was in a desert !. That was to make milk - which they consume a lot of.. If they have an alternative ( precision fermentation) - they have plenty of money ( ummm oil !) to create an industry to make it....
#PrecisionFermentation is a potential multi-trillion dollar industry to make not just food but also cosmetics, medicine, materials and more. Disruptions come from the edge - and this opportunity is still up for grabs.
@@tonyseba I think food is a problem area in your talk. The human body adapts slowly to changes and has wonderfully adapted to particularly meat and fat. Even if certain proteins are exactly duplicated, the whole package of, for example, a piece of fatty meat will include enzymes, phytoneutrients, and much more which we cannot "fake" in a petrie dish. We cannot really outsmart nature because we ARE nature, and are deeply intertwined with nature. Many people are curing their bodies in profound ways by moving away from processed foods and back to natural food, and the more natural the better. I hope this makes may point clearly.
Awesome 👏
Tony sees into the future.
Most people in the audience looked very pale after this presentation --> energy cost evolving to zero implies that some parts of the world become irrelevant (again)... Scary for some, but probably true.
The headlong rush into artificially created foods has real health risks. I'm happy to stick with real food. Thanks Tony.
Gotta wonder how well they took this presentation in the room. "Well, you need to completely change your investment focus in the next 12 years."
they already started to diversify it a decade ago or more
@@SzabolcsSzekacs
Unbelievable that people don't know this (and don't bother to check before commenting..)
Those poor OPEC grifters must have found all this quite upsetting. To hear that their half a century of bleeding the world dry with artificially high oil prices would soon come to an end must have been just awful for them.
They don't look poor to me
Tony giving this presentation from about a year ago to TAQA (in 11 countries for power, oil and gas) in UAE is hilariously funny. The look on their faces says they don’t believe. Bet: will they change their biz model after this? …I say a hard no.
The Saudi minister of oil stuff some years ago: the stone age didn't end because of the lack of stones. They are aware, it's the speed by which it happens that is the mentally hard thing to grasp because we humans have difficulty understanding exponentials.
I think Tony would confirm that these guys are more switched on than many politicians "elsewhere".
@@christianvanderstap6257 The world will burn oil for decades to come, decades!
From 2004 to 2022, global spending on wind and solar totaled $4.1 trillion, yet hydrocarbon use increased 3.4x faster.
‘Incumbent mindset’ = Mary Barra, Toyota CEO, others
What I fear, is the effect of geopolitical disruption in the absence of a de facto rules based global order. Historically, humanity has *never* managed power disruptions without violence and war on a scale matching the scale of the disruption.
In that context, the current state of the rules-based global order is beyond worrisome. Even worse, the cheerleaders of geopolitical "multipolarity", who, obviously, have no clue about how multipolarity always equal war within a realist framework (as in the absence of rules-based order) appears to be gaining ground, while at the same time failing to understand that the only path they offer, is the short-cut to nuclear catastrophe.
Well done
Livestock as a part of regenerative agriculture is strongly required to quickly regenerate disturbed by historical agricultural activities topsoil biodiversity and fertility, improve heat and water stress adaptation of ecosystems by mimicking natural processes.
Precision fermentation will not occur if it can not supported by resources from agriculture (regenerative one). It is needed to think about double disruption and divergence of current agriculture land and life degraded practises into regenerative agriculture (to obtain row material) and precision fermentation (to produce applicable food)
Right on! As much as I appreciate Tony Seba, and as much I owe to him (HE made me aware, in early 2013, of the potential of a start-up company, then called Tesla Motors, in which I significantly invested...plenty early enough!), as much I must say that there is something missing in his presentations about the disruption of agriculture. And that is the indispensable role of livestock (in extensive, obviously not intensive breeding and raising) in agriculture in general, and for many many regions and cultures in particular.
As one of the world's largest oil exporter, I was wondering what the Saudis were thinking about their future.
Oil will still be needed at scale,and Saudis extract the cheapest oil...
As demand declines the most expensive wells will be shut down
IE deep water
Production and demand cycles will continue with more wells shut down
Eventually the cheapest oil will survive
Saudi oil can almost be pumped into your car
About 2 bucks a barrel is their cost
I know what they're thinking.
"We have a ton of money to invest in this and the natural resources to make it work".
Nostradamus of tech destruction
1400 years ago Arabs take/translate western (Greek) knowledge and run/improve on them. Now is good time to repeat and not only in energy. Go for it. It is your destiny.
At about 20 minutes in - Design for the trough (over engineering) - that's what a Victorian engineer would do.
Could the Saudis stretch out the EV adoption curve by increasing supply and lowering oil prices to the $40 to $50 per barrel range? I would think that this strategy would slow the EV adoption rate … especially for SUV and Truck users. A drop in diesel prices would be a big help to curb inflation since it powers boats, trains and trucks.
Is there a link to get the slides so you can spend more time on them? I'll be interested to see a blind taste test and nutritional analysis comparison of a cow steak vs. a precision fermentation steak!
Instead of batteries for storage why not use the excess energy to pump water up high store it then release it to generate energy
Curious to see grid disruption. Disruptive use of electricity on a very aging grid will literally cause rupture... not to mention energy needed to replace fossil fuel based energy.
The Saudis know that they have all their eggs in one basket so it only makes sense that they are the most interested in an alternate energy source. Especially one involving the sun when they live in a giant dessert.
@tonyseba Liked it, but a half hour is too short for containing all you have to say. It's great for a review, but if it's the first time someone has seen this info, it becomes too disjoint. 1 hour works better.
Refer people to his 5-part Great Transformation series, which is excellent, sufficiently detailed without being too long.
This was not for us, but for the room.
I recognize that suit.
I sometimes worry that the Rethink forecast will move faster if it is under the radar.
The future unrolls for reasons of purely economic self-interest, free so far of the obstructionists attacking to slow it down.
I agree with your assessment of energy and transportation, however when you think chemistry can replace naturally raised food... you are wrong.
Well there it is, Near Net Zero and we don't have to spend a thing, in fact it will become cheaper.
Then why is Germany going through a crisis with almost 30,000 wind turbines and more than 60 GW of pv? Sun and wind are free, turning them into a reliable supply of electricity 24/7 definitely is not.
Wind power is actually rising in costs and many projects are canceled.
Sun and wind are medieval sources of energy with an extremely low power density requiring vast amounts of raw materials like copper and steel to utilize them. Since generation and consumption (not all places are suitable for wind turbines) are often far away the distribution of power needs enormous upgrades. In Germany the "grid development plan" estimates 237 Billion (!) € of investments into the 380 kV grid, the 110 kV grid needs upgrades in the "triple digit Billion €" range.
Financing this over consumer bills until 2030 would increase the kWh price beyond 50 ct - totally insane 😮.
Presentations like these are only looking at isolated aspects and are not at the whole system.
France is building 14 new NPPs from 2024 onwards - but, hey, they will be disrupted...
Bulgaria, Ukraine, Poland and Slovenia are signing a memorandum of understanding with Westinghouse for their AP-1000 plant. Everything is wrong about them...😅😅😅
The food revolution will have a disastrous effect on human health. I bet he eats wagyu beef.
I would like to hear more about food production. It's interesting that Kimball Musk is involved in innovative food production while Elon is in Energy and robotics. I would love to hear some speculation on what they might be up to.
A lot of people with money are getting involved in food production, you can guess why.
RethinkX is his foundation
Greak videos
Sir, indian company gensol coming with ev below 10 k $. Pls read about it
Where will it be sold?
@@michaelmuller665 it's under production I expect in Jan 24 . 300 km milega
Why he doesn’t talk about Q-tech and HTC smartphones instead of Nokia? They appeared 3 years prior to Iphones
Which are these PF Diary companies what will make cows obsolete?
Another great presentation, pity it doesn't sink in with the those in power and the fossil fuel mob.
How's China doing strip mining Aftica, Mongolia and Chile of their semiprecious metals for your car batteries?
How many children die daily in African Mines?
They don't need to understand. It will happen with or without them.
@@MarkSpohr It won't happen so fast, by no means.
Use of energy from hydrocarbons 2004: 384 EJ
Use of energy from hydrocarbons 2002: 494 EJ despite of $4.1 trillion invested in wind and solar
@@MultiThibor Most people don't understand the S curve.
@@MarkSpohr There is sadly no S curve, no.
Everything in society approaches zero marginal cost except for housing. Rent for a studio apartment is expected to be $4K by 2040 in the US. Minimum wage will still be $7.25/hr. A ride to your soul destroying job in an autonomous vehicle at that point will be about 0.02¢/mile. Housing will be the last thing that gets addressed.
That’s why legislation just got passed in the US that large investment companies must divest themselves of residential housing. The trend has changed the model of citizens owning their own homes, which is the foundation of middle class assets. Capitalism without guardrails will always lead to unsustainable accumulation of wealth to a few percent. The “ Monopoly game needs an adjustment or it can’t be sustained. Even Warren Buffet recognizes that the wealth gap as jeopardizing the game he’s prospered from his entire career.
@@pohkeeedid it pass both houses?
Parking space is not gonna be used no more with Taas, that government sells 30 m² plots and put a city cocon on it. A cool small living unit. Look at the great Belgian architect Vincent Callebaut amazing PLUS-ENERGY HOMELESS SHELTERS. In Paris, France
I would love to own an ev but the fire risk and the inability to replace batteries economically puts me off for now.
My understanding is it’s expected that EV batteries will outlast the cars. They’re talking of second life uses for them. LFP batteries are now being used that are safer, to the point worrying about fires isn’t justified.
You need to take another look at the data. EV fires are 100x less likely than ICE fires. The big difference is that your local fire dept probably hasn't had the training or the tools to put them out properly, so they get a lot of press. The standard EV has an 8 year battery warranty. Most batteries last longer, then you actually get money from them because they still have another life as storage batteries.
@@AKJammer1 thanks for educating
@@AKJammer1 I’m amazed at the level of opposition EVs generate within certain people. It’s like you were talking about flying cars rather than just battery propulsion, which is hardly revolutionary. It’s even worse for self-driving software, which I also support, since it can’t help but be safer than very fallible humans, some of whom shouldn’t even be in a car. Sooner or later an autonomous car will kill someone and that news will be broadcast worldwide, with attendant calls to ban it etc, but my take would be - how many faulty human drivers have killed people the same day, the difference being that the software will be fixed, and won’t do it again.
There are a few Teslas out there with a million miles on them. Have you ever owned a car long enough to put that many miles on it? The battery life is a non issue. The fire issue is also a myth. I have bought three Teslas now. I will never drive anything else.
I'm totally onboard with all of this except the precision fermentation bit. For energy, EVs and AI we are talking about superior technologies taking over. Goop (or whatever you prefer to call it) on the other hand from precision fermentation is an inferior product. It is unlikely to be acceptable to humans. because it is just another UPF (ultra processed food), and the consensus is that these foods are incredibly bad for our health. I guess we might end up feeding them to livestock, but even that is a bit of a stretch again for the same health reasons.
Exactly why replace a perfect food that are body is designed to eat, as in beef, to replace it with processed garbage so that more of our lifeline is owned by big agriculture or big pharma. Tony should stay in his lane. When it comes to optimal human nutrition he has no idea of what he is talking about.
@@goden8884lol, beef is already owned by big agriculture.
@@MoDa87 I buy from local farmers. I support local, 100 mile diet. It is about optimal health. We are designed to eat ruminant animals. Many are managing health issues by just eating meat and nothing else. They no longer need any medication. There are beneficial amino acids and fatty acids that does not exist any other food. It is the most nutrient dense food available.
What is the precision fermentation brand of chocolate you eat?? I’d love to buy it too!
It's called Oobli. 🍫 It has sweet proteins made with #PrecisionFermentation.
@@tonysebalooks fantastic - I wish they shipped to Australia 😢
How many women in the audience? That would be a disruption that I would like to see, more women being included in the Saudi Boy's Club.
Excellent work Tony. One argument an electrical engineer mentioned to me was the bad state of the old cooper electrical grid on every continent. That infrastructure needs massive upgrades to delivery from the solar farms and megapacks. What's your response?
Fragment ("invert") the "grid".
.
Solar on buildings, local Wind.
Megapack at the end of the street/ within the factory.
.
Local distribution.
.
Tesla Texas as an example.
(When complete, 70,000 panels, 65 Megapacks)
.
You can still have a distribution grid, but working "back to front" as required, with energy being sent *by* the end user to the grid.
Very much like the internet.
One node fails, there are other connections to supplement the supply.
Transmission takes a long time to build. It is needed to move energy from where it is generated to where it is consumed. With solar panels every roof and parking lot can be a power generator next to the load. It may be cheaper to construct a big solar array on a greenfield site, but if the grid cannot carry electricity to loads the lower projects meaningless. Put solar in the already built environment and society saves the time and cost of transmission.
This is more like the work of an utopian than rather someone with sensible knowledge about electrical grids and power distribution.
Germany alone has estimated costs of 600 Billion (!) € to uprade their grid to work with 100% renewables, that is simply absurd.
What many people without knowledge do not know are required conditions to operate an electrical grid safely and reliable:
1. spinning reserve or instantaneos reserve for immediate frequency support
2. black start capabilities (wind and solar need a grid to synchronize, in Europe pv inverters have to follow the DIN VDE 4105 which prohibits island operation)
3. control of reactive power
Solar is useless in many of these terms, making grids unstable if it is the main source.
Despite of falling prices, batteries are insanly expensive even for one night of storage on a grid scale - this includes transport and industry as well.
At the moment, Germany has roughly 10 GWh of battery storage. For one night in the summer (without wind, sometimes common in heat waves)
they would need roughly 500 GWh - 50 times the actual capacity.
Material use?
Staff the put them in service?
Sounds a bit too ambitious.
Tony made predictions about SWB being the cheapest form of energy, but there is small problem: wind energy is pretty crippled, almost dead at the moment.
Why? Because wind and sun are medieval sources of energy with a super low energy density and therefore a huge requirement in material use, if material prices rise, wind and sun will become exepensive.
I've got nothing againt solar pv, on my roof there is a 6.6 kWp system and a 10.75 kWh battery in the basement, installed ourselves, but running everything in northern countries only with those two power sources (wind and sun) is absurd.
Look at electricity prices in Germany, California and Denmark - more volatile renewables, higher energy prices.
And especially in Germany their government is going to collapse due to utopian green projects, making hydrogen from wind energy (projects cancelled due to high costs), building batteries for grid storage which is useless for several cloudy days in row without wind (3 weeks last december!) requiring CCGT plants "hydrogen ready" to backup the grid.
People are sick of it - where are engineers from real life to judge things from the point of practicality and not fancy presenters with colorful PowerPoint charts.
The key is, that the grid function and usage evolves:
Before: ALL electricity produced at large powerplants and distributed everywhere via HV grid to consumers.
After SWB: MOST electricity produced locally by everone owning a roof. Local "leftovers" are distributed by the HV grid.
The new SWB grid does not need the functionality that was required before. To avoid stranded investments, its much better to invest in distributed SWB than in a upgraded grid.
@@walterholaus6891 SWB is a pipe dream in industrialized nations with high energy usage, to cover winter months with nearly zero sunshine and often weeks with hardly any wind Germany would have to increase its storage capacity from 10 GWh (battery storage) to roughly 30.000 GWh - which is simply impossible, power plants would still be required for black starts simply to synchronize all wind and pv systems on the power grid which they can't.
People dreaming from SWB are far away from reality.
Pessimism is ignorance
Said every cult leader. It’s vital to always question.
Can anyone read what brand of chocolate that is?
So... uh, how are humans supposed to adapt to all this change?
The audience cuts are distracting and unnecessary.
Tony is lost in the carbondioxide myth.
It's quite funny this is being pitched to an oil state. At least they're thinking about how to deal with it.
28:13 "In my estimation, we haven't seen transformation of humanity this big since..." I was sure he was going to say The Industrial Revolution 200 to 250 years ago. That'd be a pretty big deal, right? Nope: "...the first domestication of plants and animals ten thousand years ago." 😲 So as big as the change from bands of hunter-gatherers to farming communities. Oh, is that all? Buckle your seatbelts, folks!
It is 2023, we don't need any cuts to see how the crowd is paying attention to the speaker. I don't care how cute the girl/handsome the guy is in the crowd.
On the broad macro level; Tony Seba is correct and these changes will be HUGE in our cultures. Trying to delve into what they mean on ever more micro levels of society boggles my mind. What will our culture/societies look like ten or twenty years from now ? Tony doesn't address the latest, and perhaps the most major disruption, of AI and AGI.
19:35 women with no burqaa. Saudi is changing.
I love your work Tony but people love real food too much to give up meat and dairy for fermented alternatives turned into processed food.
You think "natural" meat and dairy isn't processed?
Listen again. It is replacing animal milk protein with identical fermentation sourced protein. Not close, but identical. Likewise with beef. The replacement will be of highly processed animal ground beef with fermented ground beef.
The future looks bleak. GM crap food. Fields of solar panels and windmills all breaking down and getting destroyed by storms.
The saudis must be really worried that their core product will be no more worth it
They are making the preparations in their own countries and their investments!
They know it very well since over a decade, and are making preparations for the change.
So, the fact that adding more solar and wind power generation beyond what's required on the best days will decrease the need for storage isn't immediately obvious even for some very intelligent people? I mean, if a given amount of solar and wind just covers half the need in the worst month of the year, twice that amount of solar and wind will cover the whole need that worst moth of the year, and generate more than needed the rest of the year, to me that's obvious. Even at an average 100% over production, new solar and wind will be much cheaper per unit of used energy than new nuclear power. And can be built in a fraction of the time, and as a system is much much more reliable.
What will we do with all that spare energy? Desalination? Hydrogen?
@@MoDa87 Hopefully whatever is most beneficial in the given situation, there are plenty of good things we could do if we have a lot of "spare energy" most of the time.
Many industrial processes of which energy is a big part of the total cost might adjust to increase or decrease production with variations in the cost of that energy.
Producing hydrogen could be one option, if the hydrogen is used for things like replacing natural gas in production of nitrogen fertilizer.
Storing nitrogen fertilizer is easy, storing hydrogen to use as fuel isn't commercially viable, and won't be, even if we had all the free energy needed, for months at a time, storing hydrogen would remain an absurdly impractical option.
Even if we wanted to use hydrogen later, turning it in to some other fuel, and then back to hydrogen would be a much better option than storing plain hydrogen for later use, at an industrial scale.
But, with very cheap energy we could produce a lot of cheap fossil fuel free nitrogen fertilizer, aluminium, iron and cement, just to name a few examples.
00:05 Los próximos 15 a 20 años serán los más perturbadores de la historia.
03:07 Las tecnologías disruptivas conducen a cambios de fase en la industria.
08:58 Las personas y las empresas inteligentes a menudo no ven la próxima disrupción debido a su mentalidad tradicional.
11:36 La industria del transporte está experimentando una gran disrupción debido al auge de los vehículos eléctricos.
17:18 La transición a la energía solar y eólica se está produciendo según lo previsto, lo que se traduce en fuentes de energía más baratas.
19:48 El diseño de sistemas de energía eólica centrándose en maximizar la generación de energía durante todo el año puede alimentar varias regiones con un sistema de batería eólica 100% solar.
24:51 El costo del PF ha disminuido significativamente y se prevé que alcance el dólar por kilo en 2030.
27:24 Las proteínas dulces son mil veces más dulces que el azúcar de caña, lo que las convierte en un posible sustituto del azúcar.
00:00 TAQA celebra su 20º aniversario en Dhahran, Arabia Saudita
'great'forwho is the question, likely not good for my pay packet
But you're comparing a Tesla on the high end and China on the low price. I highly doubt a 200 mile range BYD car was ever $80k.
And you don't know if the Chinese market is subsidized. It probably is.
Not to poopoo the power of disruption, it's a very real thing. It's ok his his projections are off on amount or timing or both. Disruption does happen in short periods of time and often kill incumbent powers.
Not sure EV trucks will work. They need gigantic batteries, which are heavy, and subtract to the carrying capacity of the truck. Also, many trucks travel twice the 200-250 miles range, and it take too long to recharge.
1) Outrange the driver.
.
2) Recharge the pack while the driver refreshes.
.
Repeat.
.
Problem solved.
Tesla already has one for sale and in use.
@@MarkSpohr Yes, you are absolutely correct. I just would like to see how efficient they are and how the batteries will degrade.
My experience with a small EV, driving at Highway speed decrees greatly the range.
@@carlospadilla7296 EV trucks are still away for many years.
A "megacharger" uses 1 MW - simply absurd putting them up in many places around the globe on major places, there is simply no transmission infrastructure ready for these high loads.
@@MultiThibor Totally agree, perhaps with with Solar Panels, it could be done, without the need for transmission lines.
My limited experience with battery degradation (I have a small BMW i3 for 5 years, and had to replace the battery), we are still learning how long batteries really last:
What's the effect of fast charging?
Is it bad to have full discharges?
Or shall we charge more often?
Can different chemistries alleviate the problem?
or improve the amount of cycles?.
Therefore, still much to learn and different groups have distinct points of view (Tesla says one thing, BWW disagree).
We will lean more with TIME.... Time to see how long they really last and understand all the variables.
So to mandate, by "X" year, no more ICE vehicle, it's not realistic, it's silly...
Why is the volume set so low on this video???
Tell me that the oil sheiks in the audience are actually paying any attention to this... Probably not.
🫣🤨 They are making the preparations in their own countries and their investments!
They bloody damn do! Much more than ANY US audience would!
They are actively divesting their oil assets and investing in other business!
I love everything Seba does, but I have beef with Super Power. As we know from his God Parity principle, on-site generation at some point becomes cheaper than the cost of transmission, and later, the cost of over-generation and storage becomes more affordable than transmission. I don't care how free the Superpower is; it won't be worth building a 5x transmission to send it anywhere for part-time use. So, users such as steel, hydrogen, or crypto will have to be co-located to avoid the delays and costs of transmission. But wait, it gets worse. Superpower is free but intermittent. The uptime varies, but this 90+% Superpower is only slightly over demand, so the number of days the Superpower is truly 3-5x will be much fewer. But wait, it gets worse. Most energy-intensive industries are actually capital-intensive, run 24-7-365, and have expensive distance-dependent supply chains. That is, it costs more to build and supply and staff and maintain a facility than it costs in electricity to run it. No one likes to pay a mortgage on an asset that sits idle. No one wants to dramatically increase freight to get a better price on the energy. No one wants to schedule workers and intermittent day here or there for a few hours at a time.
So, there will be a few use cases where a co-located heavy energy user (like crypto) benefits from free off-peak power, but it is likely to still be more cost-effective to pay peak rates than shut the thing down and twiddle thumbs. I see it co-located with a few niche use cases where power is the dominant expense over all else. The idea that we will have a widespread centralized superpower transmitted everywhere that entire industries will become intermittent to take advantage of is unreasonable. Heavy industry is about to go renewable, but on the same 'firm power' basis everyone else runs on.
But wait, it gets worse. We learn that the process of curtailment in power markets is caused by bad contracts or generation sources that are expensive to shut down. But renewables are cheap or free to shut down, provided there is no contract that requires the un-needed power to be sold anyway. So why do we curtail free wind and solar and keep nuclear running? Even though it is cheaper to run, it is also cheaper to shut off. You are now telling me that a power company is gonna have all this free power they can easily shut off, with no risk or customers to fuss with, and instead make on-site deals to offload it to get paid...... nothing? Why not just shut them off? The cost of having a superpower off-take system must include the risks and hassle of selling away power that you could have just shut off for free. So what we end up with is the same sort of systems we see now - peak prices and near-zero off peak prices, with transmission costs avoided for co-location, which are largely ignored by nearly everyone because electricity costs are trending to lower anyway. Power matches to demand and the rest is curtailed or wasted on-site, maybe to crypto and hydrogen, if those capital costs are low enough.
To add a bit of context - I think the concept is one of de-centralised superpower - it is more or less available everywhere, without a massive generating station. Adding in ( and Tony Seba has done the calcs) a large local battery storage component can make this feasible...
Good questions. But things are moving in this direction nevertheless. The more appliances are found for superpower, the less it has to be sold for nothing or curtailed. Easy options for superpower: desalination of water, pumped-storage of water, pumping fresh water over great distances, making hydrogen or ammonia. How big factories will adept, who knows.
But a butterfly is not just a faster caterpillar. You're applying excess electricity to todays industry. But the real question is what does society do with intermittent nearly free electricity? I don't think we'll know till we get there and the world's entrepreneurs have had their chance. I suspect new industries will emerge. Maybe excess solar used to create methane to provide nearly free space flight? Disrupting another transportation segment. Or AI or computer problem solving only when excess power is available. Who knows what creativity will unleash given new conditions.
Steel.
British Steel (ironically now Chinese owned) just announced plans to transition from Coke to Electric Arc furnaces in the UK.
.
Superpower....
In terms of Superpower, there will be an incentive to build out the network to transport this excess energy.
One of the obvious options is to use electrolysis for hydrogen.
But one other application of all this potential hydrogen is as a feed stock for chemicals. e.g making plastics, new materials, drugs etc
There is also the ability to use this excess energy to manufacture cement and aggregate etc to build the infrastructure of the future.
Point being, there is an incentive to go further and go after superpower cos it's an enabler of so much else
Also to add..Crypto is absolute nonsense. Ignore it. @@rogerstarkey5390
He needs to work with visual capitalist to fix his graphs and bring them into the 21st century and get someone better to communicate his ideas
He's fine
I agree that he should hire someone, maybe James Stephenson (?), to improve on his graphs. But, having said this, he does convey his message brilliantly!
What absolute drivel. Electric cars haven't changed in more than 100 years, hardly disruptive