Now it's official: our own semiconductor industry is in a "death spiral" after Chinese export bans
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 20 ส.ค. 2024
- Analyses by the New York Fed and the Center for Strategic and International Studies confirm that US semiconductor companies are losing tens of billions of dollars per year in sales. In an 18-month period immediately following strict sanctions against US chip exports to China, US companies lost an average of $770 million in market capitalization, with $130 billion in lost market cap industry wide.
In company-specific examples, Micron has lost half of its revenues as a result of China export restrictions. In 2024 alone, Qualcomm will forego $10 billion in lost sales of 7-nanometer chips which are now manufactured by SMIC, a Chinese semiconductor firm.
The United States now faces strong challenges from companies in allied countries, who are resisting calls to further decouple from China's semiconductor market, the world's largest.
Resources and links:
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Geopolitical Risk and Decoupling: Evidence from U.S. Export Controls
www.newyorkfed...
www.newyorkfed...
Collateral Damage: The Domestic Impact of U.S. Semiconductor Export Controls
www.csis.org/a...
Commerce Department Implements New Export Controls on Advanced Computing and Semiconductor Manufacturing Items to the People’s Republic of China (PRC)
www.bis.doc.go...
The Anatomy of Export Controls
libertystreete...
Reuters, China sets up third fund with $47.5 bln to boost semiconductor sector
www.reuters.co...
Former ASML CEO says US-China trade war is on “basis of ideology”
www.datacenter...
US calls for Netherlands, Germany, South Korea, Japan to tighten chip curbs on China, drawing resistance from allies
www.scmp.com/t...
Bloomberg, US Seeks Allies’ Help in Curbing China’s AI Chip Progress
www.bloomberg....
Closing scene, Xinjiang Province
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No clickbait, no jump cuts, no sponsor segments. I like this side of TH-cam
and he kept it 2 seconds under the 10 min monetization
This guy is great. Good info, sources, no drama or introductions or ads.
@@reginald7214plus genuine patriot. Rare.
@@matthiasw.7414 yeah seems like a great guy.
@@matthiasw.7414 Hear! Hear!
*WHEN YOU ARE NO LONGER THE GLOBAL HEGEMON* you cant go around dictating terms to other countries without repercussions
破罐子破摔
F to U.S.
Time for my country to go out from Nato and to close all the american military bases
@@huskywr240 I 100% agree. None of this is for the benefit of the E U or the other countries you have the bases in, its for the benefit of the U S
@@piccalillipit9211 My prime minister that kiss the ass of Usa it's disgusting
As a Chinese I want to thank the US for incessantly pushing us to build our own hi-tech industries instead of simply buying from others. Such a selfless and noble nation❤
American government can be so out of touch 😂
Now they might end up self isolating like Japan and rebuild itself but will likely not be able to compete in global markets vs Chinese.
@@cottagegymfun As a Chinese born in 1996, I still remember When we wanted the "Global Village", to keep the globe as one big family. For each country to produce what they have "Comparative advantage" in, to make the whole planet more efficient . But we learnt that we have to build everything by ourselves and we learnt that the hard way.
@@Justspinwin Sad. im ´sorry!
🤣
For many decades, Chinese scientists and engineers all face the same headache, for anything they want to build, they always have to answer the question "Why build when you can buy, why buy when you can rent?" The US government grabbed the opportunity and became the best guarantor for Chinese engineering and scientific jobs - it worked so hard to convince everyone in China that you have to master absolutely everything that is considered high tech. Can't really complain too much for such pro-science and pro-engineering approach.
Before the trade war, China had so much trade surplus of from the US, to please the US they have to buy more from the US beside soybean.
Chinese people have always believed that only science and technology could make China strong. This belief has been held deer since China lost the Opium Wars almost two centuries ago. It has nothing to do with the US government.
Even from within its so-called allies.
The green card obviously, but at the expense of local talents.
And oh, its educational system which has not seen an improvement since the 1900s
If trade protection can be effective, then India should be the most productive country in the world.
But India we see has almost no industrial products to export.
@@amandagrant4331 Never. India has more than 800 million people in extreme poverty.
This is exactly what the Dutch semi conductor industry (where I live) warned about when the US forced their China sanctions on the Netherlands. To be fair they got a few sweetheart deal in return from the Dutch government.
ASML CEO famously said that "the laws of physic are the same everywhere" and that China would overcome the Dutch EUV monopoly eventually. What hundreds of Dutch engineers developed over decades, thousands of Chinese engineers can replicate in years.
asml has 42000 employees.
@@vogue43 Engineers, not regular employees are what matter.
Somewhat curious if there were anyone that wise like ASML CEO in 1941 Netherland East Indies before deciding to impose oil embargo to Imperial Japan..?😂.
Tragic events like Battle of the Java Sea / Sunda Strait or even Jan-Ruf o Herne (who was forcibily recruited as sex-slave by the Japanese) may be preventable then…
The Dutch better watch out for regime change from the US
ASML wants to move to France.
@@herobrinecyberdemon8104Wouldn't it be better to move to China?
@@herobrinecyberdemon8104- (Moving) - To - (France) - 🇫🇷 🇫🇷 🇫🇷 🇫🇷 🇫🇷 - (Won't - Stop) - (Dictating) - Who - (Your - Customers) - Are - 🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄 -
@@cedriclynch They should move to Russia :D
@@herobrinecyberdemon8104 get out eu, eu states of america.
I'm a daily viewer. Mr. Walmsley presents cold, sobering socio-economic data with respect to China. The man calls balls and strikes and I appreciate that.
Keep up the good work! Thanks for all you do.
💯✅️💯✅️
Same here. It has become my daily ritual now. Kevin's video goes well with my cup of coffee.
He is brilliant!
Me, too. One of my best sources of information.
Wish American politicians would listen and comprehend
Lots of my friends are in total denial that China has built a decent semiconductor industry and are even producing 7nm chips. One of them still believes that Chinese are taking US Chips and stamping their own company logos on them, laughable😂.
SMIC is now producing 5nm chips for the upcoming Huawei Mate 70 phones.
So far the US companies can´t even produce in 5nm, they totally rely on TSMC.
Well actually China isn't producing 7nm chips at least with the same performance.l, features and capabilities of 7nm chips using ASML machines and EUV.
China's multi patterning method only delivers some features and limited.
So technically Chinese na can produce at best something that has some 7nm capability but likely not fully equivalent to an ASML EUV machine
Ignorant much? Huawei phones beat IPhone 15!
Your lots friends are very pious believers, one would reckon.
Hebrews 11:1 - Now faith is confidence in what we hope for and assurance about what we do not see.
Stopping your companies from selling to their biggest customer is such a dumb thing that only American politicians like Raimondo and Blinken can take credit for. Years from now, MBA students will be debating the case studies of how the US semiconductor industry declined.
Jai Hind. Now only Indian origins will be allowed to study STEM at US colleges while Chinese origins can only read their Shakespeare etc. to imbue them with Western or American culture.
Not different with Navarro. Basically on both side of the aisle. Good Luck to US
Raimondo said that the Chinese were doing "bad things" with the US chips and that the US semi companies need to suck it up with less revenue in the name of democracy and national security. What a load of horse manure!
You mean the current MBA instructors did not foresee this and were basically unqualified?
@@tedchandran😂😂 true and another case of American stupidity
Kevin, 90% of your followers here knew this is going to happen, unfortunately the smart American politicians don’t or pretend they don’t.
I heard a lady who dated a senator. She said the senator told her, he has no interest in politics, people nor any policies. He's only in it for money and power. How pathetic is that.
Or it is Chinese propaganda. Did you know that the combined market value of NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, META, TSLA, AMZN, and GOOG is larger than China's GDP? You're welcome
Systems evolve into what they become. Its been grift for 4-5 decades, now. There is no saviors not trump not biden, not gaetz, not AOC. Its the PR arm to the public for power. Goodbye fellow americans, everyone abdicated civic responsibility. @IA100KPDT
@@IA100KPDT 85% of senators and government bodies in it only for themselves. That's why America has fallen
They were warned by Gates and the founder of NVIDIA and ASML this would happen.
"It gets worse". Summarizes life in the US.
They're entering the "finding out" phase.
@@olisk-jy9rz Please don't make me laugh it is too serious: The UK is the same.
I luv this guy's channel 😂😂
@@HughJass-jv2lt , Kevin appears to me as a patriotic US citizen, and hopes for a cooperative mindset from the US authority when dealing with other independent sovereign countries.
Consequence of women and Blacks being allowed to vote.
When trade policies are driven by a commerce secretary who has a personal vendetta against China, what can go wrong.
She does not have the experience. She was the governor for the smallest state in USA drippling with corruption. People working in the state gov't are related to somebody in the gov't.
She is still angry she couldn't afford a barbie doll when her father lost his job. Instead of blaming the capitalist in her own country, she direct her anger at China (built-in bias)
What "vendetta" ??
Go curb your overactive imagination.
Meanwhile China is setting new export records one after another. Its balance of trade registered a surplus of almost U$ 100 Billion only in June/24!!
USA became a nation of over consumption. They need to go on a diet!
💯✅️
The USA has become a nation of patent trolls.
in Jan to May 2024, setting chips export records to over 21.2% compared with same period last year and setting new manufacture records for mature chips in 14, 28nm , produced over 30% compare with same period last year, amount to over 170 billion units in total
Half of that were my Temu orders 😅
Just FYI, the latest Huawei phones are using 5 nm chips on modified "7 nm" process equipment. These are legitimate 5 nm chips. Sanctions are working to force Chinese technology independence, and China is never going back. Given the history of sanctions, it's really strange why the US persists. Blocking China from GPS, and the ISS resulted in China building their own Beidou constellation and space station. Chips are just the latest sector that China is taking in-country. It's like America doesn't understand that China has so many STEM graduates that they can accelerate development in any sector they want.
Not really. I've seen claims but not by anyone with true authority and no deliveries to the general public yet.
It's likely that small quantities of 5nm chip might be producible but at such high cost they would never sold to the public.
The story you told actually makes sense. Ask all the high IQ Asian-American scientists and engineers who worked in US high tech and they will all tell you they were used and discarded by racist white people who took them for granted or worse, they sometimes reward Indian engineers who may have contributed little but they speak English much better and they are better at copying American personalities to make the white people more comfortable - note all the Indian CEOs of American high-tech companies even though Chinese or East Asian people have been working here much longer. This is more of a stab against the white racists then the Indians (i.e. who can blame them?)
Are you ignorant or just stupid? You made the same silly argument before Huawei released it's 7nm chip. The only mobile chip in the world with hyperthreading! FYI China is now self-sufficient in advanced chips. Now cope better!
@@tonysu8860 Huawei has delivered literally millions of Pura 70 phones with actual 5 nm Kirin 9000-series chips. The unsubstantiated claims of "low volume" and "low yield" and "high cost" are Western propaganda to avoid admitting China having already achieved a mature 5 nm process when they're not even supposed to have 14 nm chips.
@tonysu8860 Are you still burying your head in the sand? These 5nm chip are already on huawei ‘s latest phone.
Thank you Raimando and Biden. China never had a semiconductor industry before you.
🤔🤨😅😂🤣
For the people who I ironically saying that the stock market is rising high and American companies are hitting stock price records, I don't know why I have to say the obvious: the stock market in America is mostly speculative and fueled by easy printed money and do not reflect the real economy.
I'm from a 3rd world country, and I know very clearly that the stock market can go up while the economy is going from bad to worse. The US markets will go up no matter what, because that's what they're designed to do.
And buy-backs rather than reinvestment.
Why do you waste your time saying things you do not understand? Everything in the world is valued by printed money. My stock market investments are making a lot of money and those profits can be exchanged for gold any day that I choose to do that.
China now has its own space station, while ISS will be decommissioned in just a few years. So far, Chinese taiķonauts conducted 16 spacewalks within 3 years of after launching its own spacestation, while the US astronauts are stranded in space without one single successful spacewalk and no return date to earth. Chang'e-6 just returned from the "dark" side of the moon with lunar soil samples indicating the possibility of unlimited supplies of helium 3, water, and graphite, while NASA proudly gifted the Dutch government with a piece of petrified wood found on earth. Pretty soon, China will be able to produce its own semiconductor chips with 0 nm in dimension. China is beginning to implemen its 6g network, while G7 lags behind in the 4g stage. All these Chinese achievements are made possible thanks to the US sanctions.
This is the reason why the US is getting more desperate n irrational
The US is very magnanimous in helping China be self sufficiency in chip making To China, more sanctions mean more encouragements .
35% of ukrainian agricultural land owned by American Companies.So who are we fighting for lads?
Those hedge fund vultures
Jai Hind. US companies can buy up almost all the World assets using Printed papers or Fiat money based on thin air. For example, Warren Buffett had requested Huawei to stop keeping their stocks and profits private for its employees only. As they had refused to go public to sell to Western companies like Blackrock, Huawei is facing all sorts of scrutiny form NEA and had faced sanctions from the West.
资本家
That's fake news but of course you don't care since it validates your biases.
@@TheNefastor “About half of all agricultural land in Ukraine belongs to three large American companies Cargill, Dupont and Monsanto. These firms are said several years ago bought almost 17 million hectares of Ukrainian agricultural land out of Kyiv's 40 million hectares.”
It was unbelievably easy to see that these would backfire. The South Korean memory chip businesses lost 90% of their profits overnight. The profit fall would make R&D much harder which would accelerate the rate that China catches up and overtakes the memory business.
Every other chip sector had the same effect. China now had real incentives to switch to domestic production. The reduction of AI chips to China has meant NVidia has lost the Chinese market permanently and the Chinese have their own Huawei AI chip that is even better than Nvidia and sells for 20% more. This means the valuation of Nvidia is significantly overvalued and hasn’t been priced in yet by the markets.
South Korea enjoyed trade surplus with China for decades till last year. China has the capability to produce 14nm and above chips and LEDs.
@@willengel2458 China can now produce chips down to 5nm which is why Huawei restarted phone production. Most products don’t require such chips and China has a huge cost advantage in the larger chips. Military chips use 28nm. So the target of the sanctions was completely missed.
there goes Jensen Huang's leather jacket money
You may not know a fact, that is, half of the credit for the development of the semiconductor industry in the United States is due to the contribution of Chinese Americans.
US is ruled by lawyers who as a previous commentator said are in it for money and power...could care less about sensible policy. So when right wing racists tells them to cut off chips to China, they just do as they are told. They barely understand the consequences.
If I had to pick only one channel to watch it would be yours. Thank you.
Same here; the way he explained the impossibility of de-risking, friend-shoring or whatever is superb.
Thanks to Obama, Trump, and Biden. BTW, this channel bring real news which is better than all MSM combined! Excellent work, Kevin.
Not just semiconductor, even the wheels for high speed train, the American told the German not to sell to China anymore. Then, the Chinese did the research by their universities team and then they created their own high speed train' s wheels. Recently, the American also told the German not to sell diesel engine for their submarine, and the German obeyed. I bet eventually the Chinese will be able to create their own diesel engine for their submaine, it is matter of time.
China has its own submarine diesel engines. The reason why the Chinese submarines purchased by Thailand use German diesel engines is actually due to customer demand. And this demand is driven by inertia... When customers can no longer purchase German engines, they will try Chinese engines and then find them just as good... Sanctions create markets... The same thing happened in Russia, where Russian truck drivers now drive Chinese trucks. They have discovered that driving Chinese trucks can actually earn them more money than European trucks.
I do not have any information saying the United States said anything to Germany.
@@outman1923 Great !
@@Matthew_Loutneryou didn’t get the memo? How dare them?!
@@tc-red9000 Let us just say . . .
"There is no memo."
How about US going back to work making products instead of banks and investors just collecting profits from renting intellectual ownership of patents.
Yeah, they need to get re-education.
@@elliekwong3180 Yes but unfortunately they've raised college tuitions to the level of a perpetual loan trap.
@@elliekwong3180 Do you mean going back to vocational training institutes? Those are called concentration camps in American language.
made in usa cannot compete
@@Larkinchance Talk about China's Debt Traps for developing countries...😂
Kevin for China news, Lena Petrova for US financial analysis, both excellent 👍
You are right there. Lena is excellent as well.
sean foo?
@@fannyalbi9040 And Richard Wolff
The shocker will come when the Chinese anonouce an in-house 3nm chip next year
"Hear me now, believe me later!"❤
Jai hind @@jeeprack570
The Sanctions that the Americans are imposing on Russia and now China, among many other states Reminds me of the Continental System the French imposed on their allies during the Napoleonic wars. The French economy never really recovered from this folly, and the British dominated Europe until the unification of Germany. The signs of imperial overstretch are all around us.
Wow this was great! This guy has restored my sanity!
Doesn’t the US government have advisors with business back ground. By cutting off chips to Chinese market, who the hell are they going to sell the chips to. 🤦🏼🤦🏼
Yes, USA gov't collects MBAs from Harvard Business School. They produced students like Daleep Singh who devised this elaborated sanction on Russia. Oh yeah, he got these graphs where Russia's business and USA business intersect and how they could put pressure on those intersect points. What a brilliant man!
The British will buy it for their national dish “ Fish&Chips” 😂
Endia...saree modi
@@elliekwong3180 Daleep was feted as the Tzar of Sanctions when the nuclear option was imposed on Russia. Wonder where he is hiding now, or does he still have a job with the Biden regime?
The US is the world's largest consumer market, no detailed analysis required!
Friend countries? Countries with that title got to watch out - it could be fatal
"Friendly country" are the words engraved on the headstones of unfortunate countries.
Vassals - not friends
China produces the largest number of STEM grads by far, and their performance in the "hard sciences" has been exceptional. Really, what did the US Senate expect? When it was more cost - effective to buy from the US, China bought from the US. Nevertheless they were even then investing in the silicon sector hence the purchases from ASML and others. Now? The US decides it doesn't want to trade (and prevents others from trading), so China will inevitably (and quickly) develop its own technologies.
The next self - inflicted problem for the West will be when China sells their own fab technology in direct competition. Remember ASML's boast that "even if we gave them the plans, they could never build these machines!"? The Chinse models will be cheaper, and better than anything ASML produces (assuming ASML still exist).
Raimondo's real name is Morondo.
She just follows orders. Not bright enough to think up all these stupid policies on her own.
@@randygraham926 Tell me who thinks up these stupid ideas. Biden is too preoccupied with tying his showlaces. Blinken is too busy playing his guitar. I think Sullivan. A guy driven by ideology, not intelligence.
Chinese EVs and gas under $20k should be let in the US without tariffs. Detroit abandoned the poor and Chinese sells them goods through Wal-Mart also. They need them for work and inexpensive Chinese autos don't compete with US autos in that price range because there are no US autos in that price range.
EV's are not for the poor
the Chinese one are though.
Here i Bulgaria we have $12k EV's and the $28k one my neighbour has got looks as good as a BMW or Merc for build quality, staggering how good it is
@SaintFluffySnow USA has greedy profiteers.
😂😂
This has nothing to do with "Detroit".
The Manufacturing Plants left a long time ago
I worked in the microchip industry in Bay Area in 2022. Because of this stupid ban most of us (~80%) in tier 1 & 2 were layoffs and never recovered. Who are the geniuses running our country making the stupidest decisions for us. This has had disastrous consequences for our economy and future for the microchips sector.
😂😂
What now?
Leave the county?
@@HughJass-jv2lt , I actually know some guys like Jean actually moved to China and have been working in the Chinese microchip companies.
@@Goodfellow1234567
Sounds like a Winning plan to me 😆😆
This is bcos american politicians don't understand basic economic rules.
@@HughJass-jv2lt Considering US chip industry is declining in the face of the rising Chinese chip industry obviously the major future job opportunities in the industry will be in China.
Kevin, you're making insightful content that not many others are doing on TH-cam. I'm rooting for you and hope your channel grows substantially. 🎉
The US is so delusional.
U s is getting comical love the facts with the evidence provided?
@@terryl858 What evidence do you need, do some research, start with Lena Petrova and some of the people she interviews.
@@tunintunin3417 Lena petrova is a CPA. She's an accountant. She has many crazy theories, but in the end she really is not qualified to have opinions on geopolitics and economics.
@@MrNickjberry I am not talking about her, listen to her guests, professors from Stanford, Harvard … nevertheless, other sources are available…
Truth without bias 👍 China's growth can't be slowed by much if another country agrees to ruin businesses as US political ego & habits are surreal. Thanks for non bias news & graphs simple for anyone 👏 👏 👏 We share your videos with friends & groups 😀
maybe ten years ago some countries would have said ok to the u s , but now I say good luck with that project and if its run the same way america runs its commerce department the chinese have nothing to worry about nor do the friendly countries there are many more things spiraling out of control in the united states these days that need more attention than microchips
South Koreans, not Koreans in general, North-Koreans are way smarter and so are Chinese Koreans
Koreans, Japanese, and Native Americans came from China.
There's North Koreans and there's South Koreans. But there is NO Chinese Koreans. In China, even if you have permanent Chinese residence they still call you Korean and not Chinese Korean. Unlike the US/Europe that call a Jew an American Jew.
Korean Chinese hello.
Koreans living in China are 1 of the 56 minorities.
Chinese Koreans, hello.
The Korean Kingdom was a vassal state of the Ming Dynasty
@@lowcc7602There're at least a million or more Chinese of Korean descent in China, dude.😂😂😂😂
Unbelievable.
They know it's a death spiral, but still try to extend it to their allies.
Just shows that USA do not have ALLIES... they are treated as lapdogs. Most have no choice when US master ask them to turn the knife on themselves.
Thank you for sharing your knowledge, most of the people in government are not aware about what they are doing
No, China is not growing the chip industries for themselves, they’re spreading it to the developing countries via BRI to build their own global supply chain and leave the US and cohorts in their own isolation.
West is fucked 😂
Self-f*cked.... basically
Sometimes i wonder if Biden and Trump is helping China to innovate and be independent faster and better in advanced technology.
That's why the Chinese calling Trump and Biden 川建国 and 拜振华 respectively.
😂😂😂😂
As Bill Gates said "America is helping China development"
You don't have to wonder. This one video is enough of a proof to validate that. Enough evidence in there.
I think both are seriously underestimating China's resilience
John and Robinette are making China great again.
糟糕，暴露了
Kevin thanks for honesty in your reporting. Sobering. Be good to
Now blaming China , oversupply..😂.
Dumb politicians
Just look at what happened with the space station.
Has USA asked China for help yet? How are they going to bring these 9 people back to Earth?
@@elliekwong3180 India offered help.
@elliekwong3180
Elon of course.
Elon will fix everything.... probably tomorrow.... next year definitely.. 😄
@@elliekwong3180 , "TAIWAN can help!" as the politicians in Tawian love to chant whenver there is a crisis or something like that. 🤣
China's trade surplus through the first half of the year was USD 434.9bn, which represents an increase from 2023's USD 400.7bn levels over the same period. As for 2Q24, the trade surplus settles at USD 252.6bn, up from USD 219.8bn - hellenicshippingnews
Sadly this is factual information, most appreciated.
And they also will announce MBSS type of lithography soon which will allow China to do what ASML does but quite a bit cheaper. This is a very high speed photon accelerator where it can split the beam for use in various plants on the site.
Another excellent analysis.
Thank you for this.
SMIC development of semiconductor at 7nm using DUV technology was not a surprise by industry insider. The Co-CEO, Liang Mong Song, did the same (using DUV lithography) while he was an engineer at TSMC. Ditto when he went to Samsung. Can SMIC develop 5nm using DUV instead of EUV? He's already done so while he was TSMC, so announcement of SMIC development of 5nm chip should be forthcoming.
It is already being made at SMIC for the Huawei mate70 phones. They will be for the market in September.
@@laowantongchau Can you buy one in Hong Kong?
intel 13 & 14 series are having high error rate. many sources already advice to replace them with AMD.
@@elliekwong3180 Yes. Mate60 was being sold in HK.
“These People running USA are either from Mars or somewhere or living under the rock” It’s stupidity beyond belief 🤣🤣🤣
Please, do not insult Martians.
@@SophyaAgain my apologies. I love Martians. Happens to be favourite kind of folks. Perhaps they from a far far away planet outside our galaxy 🤣🤣🤣🙏🙏🙏🐝
@@alanx1522 And they've got a lovely pair of big eyes and I love green.😁
@@SophyaAgain me too. 🫠
Wall Street always prioritizes short term gains at the expense of long term viability. Stock buybacks over R&D.
Sounds like the clue-less, racist parts of the US government.
Thanks for superb commitment - Be Good
Excellent reporting. Thanks for doing all the search
So glad I found your channel
Precise well researched info, no extra useless babbling
US preventing Dutch ASML from exporting-trading with China.
ASML are moving to France which is less inclined to bow the knee to the US. And they said if the US go after the French govt, they will relocate to China.
China is 55% of their business. The US is 5%
ASML have now lost 40% of their market permanently. That will eliminate the profits for R&D. They will fall behind really fast.
@@davidlazarus67 Its NOT permanent - see my comments above
@@piccalillipit92119:49
ASML are already in China ??
I used to cook for my kids now that I have stopped they have learned to cook for themselves . In fact one of them cooks better than me so at times he cooks for me .
😂analogy and facts🎉
Politics is irrational.
Speak for yourself. American and western politics is irrational.
Chinese politics is very rational and sober.
…. when the system is set up around politics rather than governance ….
Another fantastic report!
Let’s hope US politicians continue to offer opportunities for Chinese chip industry to prospect and innovate without US competitors in for the global south.
Kevin might have misinterpreted the two reports quoted in the video.
The STAFF report asks the US government to indemnify the US firms suffered from the export ban. That effectively hints more subsidies are needed to run the export ban.
The CISIS report clearly states the "death spiral" is the worst case but Kevin immediately accepts it as the current situation. The report summary suggests the ban should has a time table and recommends tightening of the ban by forcing US allies to toe the line. Thus CISIS report is for the continuation of the export ban.
Crucially both reports concentrate on the negative aspects of the export ban and omit to mention the benefits the ban has bought to the US companies. Apple for example mop up the smart phone business of Huawei and became top seller for a few years in China. It was as a coordinated policy to remove Huawei and put Apple into its place. Qualcomm may have suffered a set back recently but it was buoyant with orders at the beginning of the export ban. Many US companies achieved huge capitalisation of their stocks but none was considered in the two reports, making one think may be their publications have devoted and separate agendas.
US leaders and politicians are in a state of panic about the decline of US
You be the next US president, you are so much more better and decent than the two senior citizens!!
Your knowledge given, are for me, like the furtilicer in a newly seeded cornfield!
Thank you.
And all well to you too.
I like how you say "friendly countries", the US has colonial relations and orders it's client states which is exactly what happened to Huawei; even the UK did the research, found nothing hidden and was prepared to do business, but the US said NO. Ditto every other compardor client state.
You're a new and much appreviated discoevery for me. TY for your fact filled unemotional posts.
They should have conducted this kind of study BEFORE imposing sanctions.
I remember when the semiconductor industry was going strong in north Texas in the 2000’s. I was one year out from graduating after doing research in 3-5 nitrides. It was all sold down the river to Taiwan by short sighted politicians and bean counters. Thousands of working growers and researchers found themselves out of jobs over night. It will take generations to put that back together.
ASML sold only 2 EUV machines in Q1, and they were targeting to sell 10 times more than that 😂...... That's not even 1 EUV machine per G7 country
Yeah, I mean, you decide, for good reasons, to stop selling specific things to China, then you do that, and then they do not pay for the things you did not sell. Does not seem surprising to me.
A high school kid have seen through that. No need of IISS or Bloomberg ‘expert’ analyses. From Middle Eastern oil to Australian , Brazilian Ore, Soybean, to EV To ICE. We always could see the trend. Even the smart Jewish capital never left or quit on Shanghai. Shanghai CME will replace Chicago CME!!
From what I read, Japan is very eager to help the USA even if it means hurting their own companies. Japan is a fairly sinophobic country. S Korea is extremely sinophobic too and has been trying to make the USA instead of China its largest trading partner again.
China is not SK top trading partner because it's replaced, memory chips, LCD, OLED, TV, etc it imported from SK. The same for Japan and Germany!
Japan is not sinophobic in the traditional sense. Japan is a defacto vassal state like Germany is because not only do they remain under US military occupation (i.e. all the US bases) but their LDP government and party was created and installed by the US after WWII to rule Japan on behalf of the US. The LDP is a fascist type party a continuation of the ruling group of Japan during and before WWII. It's the US who is Sinophobic except when they needed them to counter the Soviet Union. The US let most of the Japanese war criminals free to help them run Japan despite their responsibility for killing 30 million Chinese (Chinese Holocaust). The US refused include war crime charges for Japan's barbarism in China when they put Tojo and his generals on trial. The US tolerates Japan's refusal to apologize for their war crimes and genocides of WWII. The list goes on. I've never know South Korea to be broadly sinophobic. Again, SK is a US vassal state under military occupation.
@@kenw.4539 You explained it well. Most westerners know nothing about these facts.
They are HOSTAGE countries, they are not xenophobic.
Another excellent and informative video. Thank you very much!
The gap between TSMC and Mainland China Fabs is also narrowing very rapidly. Once the Chinese have a reliably good source of EUV, and even x-ray (synchrotron/SSMB), the economics of multi-patterning should go out the window. I don't see why the Mainland cannot achieve 1 nm within 3 years at economies comparable, but probably better than TSMC. You couple that with 3D geometries such as Gate-All-Around and one can achieve astounding improvements in power consumption (LLMs are often benchmarked by their carbon footprint) and device density.
Semiconductor has reached its limits anyway. Photonic now. Just as China skipped the ICE race into EVs
@@bubuneowoo6161 I don't think photonics will replace all semiconductors. There is still a lot of mileage left to nano-metre and sub-nano metre chips. However, Photonics research should go on.
Gina Romando the self destruction queen 😂
She really has not been in the swam that long to create that much damage. It is the commander-in-chief and Katherine Tai, US Trade Representative. Tai is actually came from a Chinese minority group in Southern China. She looks like a Hakka.
@@elliekwong3180 This is called conversion fanaticism
FYI
The total, total number of US STEM graduates with a Computer Hardware Engineering degree was 45 in 2022.
45, not 45k, including foreign students.
Because everyone is making webapps for FinTech. Biggest industries in the US don't make anything (Finance, Insurance, Healthcare Admin).
But it is 45K in China 😂
That cant be true, is it? That is INSANE wth
@@UrosStankovic67 degree given in 2021 according to another souce.
However, there are about 60k engineers with the Computer Hardware Engineer tittle. Average age is 45 yo.
That means most US computer hardware engineers do not have the degree bearing the same name. And it is a shrinking field because we don't do this stuff in the US anymore. Same for the semiconducter field.
My kid sister is 55 years old. I steeled her to get a computer degree in the early 80's. She chose computer engineering degree because computer science degree meant programming or coding that sge did not want to do. . Her first (and only) job was at Phoenix, spinning different versions of BIOS chip from a master file for different pc manufacturers. It was more software work than hardware work. Then PC manfacturing went to Asia. Phoenix merged with another company. Then another. 10 years later Oracle brought the company for unkown reason. Cut the staffing down to just a handful of engineers. She still have the same job because she said "nobody wants my job and they need me to keep the light on."
@@UrosStankovicI told my daughters to get computer engineering degrees (as I used to work for nVidia). But they all got jobs and interns and got paid so well by programming, so they just got their computer science degrees instead. It is market driven. The need for hardware engineering is not that big. And it is difficult.
Thank you for the US and Good to whole mankind
first thing in the morning, I check for your feed, I am addicted to your videos & I have learned a lot from you, and not just about China. I am so glad I found your videos a couple of weeks ago. Top man, O ja, another 2 things I like about is "Good morning" & "Be good" :)
"Be good", thats so Confucius.
There are 3 generations of 7nm chip/node total; only the 3rd generation requires EUV, while the 1st 2 generations only require DUV. For the 3rd generation 7nm node, DUV can be used in place of EUV. However, in to reach 80% yield, using DUV would cost 3 times more than using EUV, or even as much as 4 times.
Now this is where US sanction policy against China becomes extremely stupid & absurd: while prohibiting exporting any production equipment & material that can be used for 16nm or smaller nodes/chips, US also prohibiting export chips of 10nm or smaller to China at the same time.
This means that even if Chinese 7nm chips made by DUV is 3 or even 4 times more costly than 7nm chips made by EUV, Chinese firms would still have to buy the former, because the cheaper latter is not available to Chinese.
As a result, Chinese chip makers such as SMIC can make steady profits & survive on their own without any Chinese governmental subsidize, albeit its profit is no where near that of TSMC or Intel.
Had US allowed most advanced AI & other chips to be continuously sold to China, similar domestic Chinese chips made by DUV would have been driven out of Chinese market, & Chinese chip makers would be stopped dead @ only being able to make mature/legacy chips. But thanks to this stupid & absurd policy of prohibiting selling both the advanced chips, and equipment necessary making them, China is increasingly become self sufficient in both.
DUV costs twice as much as EUV, at most. DUV has lower power consumption than EUV exposure, shorter exposure time, lower machine cost and so on.
DuChen-py7gl:
What you said is true, but only for situation of EUV vs 14nm DUV when making 7nm chip, when using SADP process to make 7nm chip with 14nm DUV.
However, for situation of EUV vs 28nm DUV in 7nm production, things are drastically different. When using SAQP to make 7nm chip with 28nm DUV, the cost is at least three times of that of using EUV in one shot. In this situation, if forcefully to lower the production cost to that of EUV, than the yield would suffer greatly, drastically reduced to only around 30%. This is the reason why many sources outside China claim Chinese 7nm chip yield is only 30%.
In reality, Chinese 7nm chips yield is actually more than 80%, but at a much greater cost which is more than 300% of the same 7nm chip produced by EUV.
Therefore, when making 7nm chips using 28nm DUV, either spend 3 times more to achieve the same yield of EUV, or sacrifice yield with significant decrease of more than half, if you want to keep the production cost the same. Obviously the 2nd choice is out of question, but SMIC can still manage to make $ despite its hi price tag, because Chinese customers cannot access much cheaper 7nm chips made by EUV, thanks to the foolish & absurd US policy
don’t understand all the US chip stocks are still hitting new high as if nothing has happened
user es6eg7tl4d
It is apparently obvious you have never worked in an international stock exchange
I have in the London stock exchange
I leave it you work out the nonsense you typed
Well go an buy stocks go buy Uber as well they never made a profit probably never will many stocks have over inflated prices when they fall it will be a very steep fall😂
@@jarrodwilson2382
What absolute nonsense are you typing
The stock exchange deals with international products
That are relatively stables and deals with future buying
@@mark4371 the gaslighter bug persists
@@erenyeagerist7681
The never worked at the London international stock exchange persist
When you are attempting to comment make it significant related to the facts of stock exchange and finance
The poor opinion you typed is ridiculous
One of my favorite new channels. Sources provided upfront and no bs!
Thanks again Kevin
100% agree BUT the NASDAQ and S&P hit all-time record high everyday. How can anyone argue the doom and gloom against that?
Inflation driven and the expectation of this year's Fed rate cut priced in.
And Biden has print more USD to go into Boeing, Raytheon & other MIC industries to boost military production & send to Ukraine to battle the Russians. US 600 billion has been approved last month. That will jolt the markets nicely
There are a number of reasons for that..
1) Covid stimulus - the govt dumped a couple trillion into the private sector. This was a one-time pump for the economy.
2) AI bubble - there is an expectation that AI will boost GDP, productivity, innovation, all types of things. These expectations are now getting scaled back.
3) Inflation - this is not a negative for multinationals because they have the resources to handle inflation. But it is eating into US consumer savings.
If you notice, it is only a few large tech companies that are producing the record highs. But there are a number of signs of ill health. Personally I am quite concerned.
@@darkphoton_15keVMost Americans don't give a damn about that. All they see is the balance on their brokerage statement (401k and what not) going up every month and so too the value of their home. They're getting richer. The media brainwashed them into hating China. They're happy to see their "democratic" government is containing "evil" China and protecting them from "evil" China by erecting massive tariffs on Chinese products. They don't care or want to know what's going on outside their country.
@@darkphoton_15keVMost Americans don't care about that. All they see is their savings (401k and whatnot) and home price going up in value every month. They're getting richer.
Lol idn why they think they can do these things, regular people can see this would happen, why not the “experts”?
The "experts" are paid very well NOT to see it.
Remember what Plato(n?) wrote about Atlantis? They became arrogant at some point.
Kevin, you must know this, but cannot say it on TH-cam. If you follow the money, the sanctions have harmed a lot of American companies and foreign companies of our allies. However, which few major companies have benefited and in turn our ruling elites?
And Biden's family may own a lot of SMIC stocks 😂
Ask Pelosi what stocks she buys.
When God is for you no one can prevail against you.
The Chinese Communists ... who are mainly atheists ... have God on their side?🤔 Well, Ok then. 🤣
I don't object to Chinese communism or atheism myself ... but I found your comment very curious, all considered.
But maybe you were just making a random comment that had nothing to do with the video.😉
@@randygraham926
Randy, you obviously don't know anything about YHVH. Do you think his favour upon a people depends on whether that nation is communist ir capitalist? Gosh! You're suffering from a very serious and delusional case of American propaganda.
Our Father in heaven, LOVES the chinese people, just as He does any other peoples on earth. YHVH cares for the Chinese, and won't NOT provide for them or give them success just because their government is run by CPC. Nor will YHVH grant success to America on the basis that its a capitalist system. Your logic is so puerile, it'd be funny if it weren't so sad!
Listen:
The Father in heaven is good to both the righteous and the unrighteous. He sends rain upin both the evil and the good.
Get out of your propaganda-filled American bubble. Stop watching American news channels and try international ones (not Uk, Canada, Australia) for a change.
@@randygraham926 And to be beaten at their own game by atheists and communists. Must be a communist conspiracy.
The government knows best. 😂
Great report!
You do a fantastic job covering these topics. Always enjoy these succinct videos.
As always , great analysis .
Thank you for your excellent channel.
Agreed!
Ok so I’m not the only one that thinks our export control is hurting America. I work at ASM and had so many training on how not to communicate and trade with Chinese customers. Our management keeps complaining it is very stupid because a strict export control will only expedite China’s progress on semiconductor. They should do what Microsoft does! Look at how Microsoft has no export control but Windows is the dominant OS in China till this date. Imagine if China came up with its own OS… that will be terrifying Those congressmen are clueless…
They already have that's why they was not effected by crowdstrike
Your show is absolutely fantastic. Big congrats
Is NVIDIA’s earning report fake????!!!!
Q. April 22nd 2024 ... Can China make 7nm chips?
A. Yes, 7nm chip powers Huawei's Mate 60 Pro Phone
Q. June 1st 2024 (5 weeks later)... Can China make 5nm chips?
A. China's recent achievement in developing a 5 nm semiconductor chip marks a significant milestone in its technological advancement.
Basically sanctions don't work and is actually harming the West.
They also make 3nm chips now but not yet nearly as efficiently and cheaply as TSMC, another chinese company.
@davidrichards1741 Extremely impressive to move through the production of 7nm, 5nm & now 3nm chips in a matter of months. Knowing their perseverance to produce high quality products in large quantities as cheaply as possible, I suspect it won't be too long before they start matching and possibly surpassing TSMC in both quality chip yields and price. I know for certain this is the case with EV's, where "once again" the EU has imposed tariffs on Chinese EV's simply because they can't compete on quantity, quality and price.
Too late, inexperienced politicians have opened the Pandora's box already
Thks Brandon
Thanks to Raimondo.
She just follows orders. Not bright enough to think up all these stupid policies on her own.😂
Less sales = less money for RND….😅😅😅