Ukraine intercepts Russia's Kinzhal missile?!? Here's what happened
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 1 ต.ค. 2024
- Ukrainian and American Defense officials have now both confirmed an intercept of Russia’s much-hyped “hypersonic” Kinzhal missile during a Russian missile and drone attack on May 4.
But nothing in warfare is ever quite so cut and dry, and in the days following this intercept, a number of competing narratives emerged; some born out of genuine confusion about Ukraine seemingly denying the intercept, others out of seriously questionable evidence making the rounds on social media, and of course, more still driven by the Kremlin’s sprawling I.O. (information operations) machine.
So here's the complete breakdown of what Kinzhal is, what the Patriot air defense system is capable of... and what really happened on May 4.
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Kinzhal, more like Kanceled
good one
Nah. Only evidence offered has been taken directly from Ukraine Defense Ministry saying “believe us,” as if they have ever been trustworthy. Patriot has trouble shooting down rockets fired by Islamic Militants in Yemen.
Not that sharp a dagger after all. 😂
HA
cancel culture is at it again
Some may now say, Did I say hypersonic? I meant hyperbolic 😅 (as in hyperbole) 😂
Or hyper-bollocks (as Russian propaganda usually turns out to be) 😆
Turns out the real Kinzhal missile is the friends we made along the way.
The Ukrainians?
@@Bustermachine Well, I'm just referring to this particular incident (Ukrainians were already friends), so that expert who came with circles on photos, those willing to admit they were wrong like Alex here, and of course the Ruzzian bots spouting their nonsense, always good for a laugh and a 'cope' response from someone in the comments, classic.
Plays TheMissile.webm
Turns out anderi is dead wrong because it was a BETAB-500 in one of the pictures he posted he literally put an image of a Betan mounted on an aircraft then the main part of the wreckage with the hole he literaly gave the real answear accidentally.
The previous so called crash of a kinzhal doesnt make sense because the crash sight is located in the southwest from the base where the migs are so why would a mig go southeast then turn west in direction for ukriane and only then fire the missile ? Besides we dont know where this missile was suppose to go so we dont know its trajectory ? An accidental launch of p800 oniks seems plausible since there are russian ships which carry it in the caspian sea
LOLLLL
There is a good video which explains why ukrianians thought they downed 6 Kinzhals, but actually did not. Most likely only 2 kinzhals were sent and both hit the target.
I had some guy claiming the patriot systems hydraulics were going to quickly fail in the wet dirt environment of Ukraine. Yeah in the 30 years it’s been in development it has never gotten wet or dirty.
"More hype than hypesonic"... love it.
HyperboleSonic 😂
That's seems to be so true of most of Russia's claims.
Nicely done sir.
Uh, it is hypersonic. It is a maneuvering quasi-ballistic missile. This is like saying F-117 is only hype because one got shot down. At least with that we can confirm it was actually shot down. The evidence of this offered is “trust us,” basically. Time will tell if their claim is true or not. Considering it has been optimized to defeat systems outside their own S-500 I’d be skeptical.
hypeRsonic
Russia: Boasts and lies about literally all its weapons.
Nato: Believes it all, starts to develop "solutions" to the bs russian weapons.
Nato 1 year after: "wait wtf is this? y are we winning so hard?"
Russia is a guard dog with a spikey collar and a voice recorders, and the barks of a big dog on the recorder, it also like to show those bloodthirty fierce teeths so there that, but when deception is revealed it tries to hide, and you can only hear the noise of a dog in extreme distress or pain😂
The F15 saga repeating all over again.
The Foxbat scared the US so they developed the F15 and turns out it was so well designed it works well even 50 years later and will probably fly for over 60 years.
It’s like developing F-15 to counter MiG-25 all over again
F15 vs Mig25 moment. F15 was basically made to solve a problem that never existed
I think Putin really believed his military was one of the top militaries in the world. Otherwise he wouldn’t have invaded. His generals lied to him. He even allocated a lot of money to his military when it was clearly in decline during the collapse of the Soviet Union. They presented him with parades and show these weapons and believed all the hype. I think he realizes now how much of a fraudulent weak army they really are.
Posting before the ольгинские тролли show up so I can enjoy the unhinged replies 😂
I used to work with a man who earlier headed a Patriot battery in the 1991 Gulf War. He said that during and immediately after that conflict, upgrades and improvements to the system were incredibly rapidly designed and deployed as weaknesses came to light. I fail to see how that wouldn't have continued to this day.
fake news
@@atvkid0805 А ты говоришь по русски?
Of course your friend lied
It wouldn't surprise me if there are some Americans near the Patriot systems who are monitoring and taking notes to come up with more improvements.
No matter how the patriot air defense system is improved, it cannot destroy aeroballistic hypersonic targets. Just as he cannot destroy the "iskandar", the predecessor of the "dagger".
Patriot destroyed Kinzhal by the ingenious technique of letting itself hit by the missile
I'll bet it really burns Putin's nuts that our gear actually works as advertised. (EU or US)
I bet he doesn’t even heard about it, grandpa just reads the paper reports that FSB is feeding to his dumbass, he doesn’t know how to use the smartphone. He’s just stupid evil fascist
Putin: wait, they are not exaggerating their capabilities?! Uh-oh...
That's the power of accountability. Don't get me wrong, western arms manufacturers still find other ways to be a little corrupt, but in the end the weapons have to work
@@nommchompsky if you're not counting dogshit like the LCS program ships as weapons, maybe.
'Our" gear???? as if you fucking invented it lol
Its never been advertised that it could shoot down a hypersonic and to this day there is zero proof it can. USA failed its last hypersonic test and still doesnt have a functioning hypersonic. Not a single test from research and development has shown it can shoot down a hypersonic.
Even one of the guys that wrote the software for the patriot says they can even track or identify objects going that fast.
I suggest you find better sources or not be so naive.
This is something I have tried to explain to critics of the MIM-104 Patriot system, albeit unsuccessfully for the most part. The current system is NOT the same system used during the 1991 Persian Gulf War. It has had a myriad of upgrades over the last 32 years and is now a FAR more capable and effective system than what was used to intercept Iraqi Scud missiles in the early 1990’s.
Most people I think do not understand the difference systems upgrades can make. I’ve seen the difference in my time in the Royal Australian Navy decades ago(before Desert Storm). New radars, new missiles, new software, etc., can almost create a whole new warship in terms of capability. The same principle applies.
It's the exact same. The current system couldn't stop Yemenis Iranian built drones and missiles from hitting Saudi oilfields. Same Old garbage patriots.
@Changeur2009 no need. you just need to move to the side. They can't hit moving targets.
@Changeur2009 Our radars on the patriots can not see the hypersonic missiles cuz if their speed...If a radar can't tracked or spot a missile, it can't coordinate interceptors to it. It's that simple. Bruce Lee has a better chance dodging a bullet at point black range than a patriot or Aegis System spotting or tracking a hypersonic. These things are moving at mach 10.
@Changeur2009 from my understanding. The higher the speed of an object. The harder it is to maneuver. So more than likely yes.
It's so ridiculous that people compare the 1991 version of Patriot with today's version. With all the high value targets protected by Patriot why would the pentagon just leave it alone for 3 decades while we upgrade every other system constantly. It's laughable. That's like saying the S-200 and S-400 are the same because they are both in the S family of AA systems.
The S- series are all operated by the same poorly trained conscript troops, so ARE essentially the same. If the operators don't press the right buttons, the systems fail, in other words.
91 version of the patriot wasnt bad. its blast frag warhead is very effective again fighters. The problem is that missiles on a ballistic arc dont give 2 damns about shrapnel. They have expended all of their fuel in the first minute of flight and at such a high angle of attack what damage shrapnel causes only throws them off course slightly. They will probably miss but land close enough to damage sth imp. Im sure Ukraine would love as any 90s version of patriot that they could get
It's like comparing Intel 486 processor from around the same time with current generation of PC processor.
Ahhhhhhhh MONEy 🤫
@@jerelull9629poorly trained Conscripts ya reckon?¿.
Air defence systems are mostly autonomous...any retard can push the fire button
This reminds of the Nazis. They were so focused on 'wonder weapons' that they didn't produce enough of that which was working. If the Nazis had forgotten about their long range bombers to reach America and bombing England with V2s and instead had concentrated on producing more Focke-Wolfe 190s and ME262s they might have survived long enough to realize the 'bomb. But instead they got 'distracted' with 'toys.' That seems the case here. If the Russians had focused on drones, and better tanks and ground attack aircraft this war might be different.
Fake
Russia, putting the Hype in Hypersonic, since 2018.
Well, it wasn't a Kinzhal Ukraine shot down. Just a little fact for you before you go on.
@@Test4Echos No, it was.
I’m sorry you and your vatnik buddies are having a having a hard time digesting it but turns out when Putin says something is “invulnerable” to western systems, he may actually not be telling the truth🫢
@@MacTac141 No, it wasn't.
Firstly, no ballistic missiles were in the air that night as has been reported by the Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security.
Secondly. anyone with an objektive mind can clearly see that the missile shown with Kievs mayor Klitschko standing beside it and holding his hand on it, is NOT a Kinzhal because of the size. It's not even close.
I understand you guys need to clutch at straws here, but this is just redicilus.
@@Test4Echos Oh, but I thought Kinzhal was a hypersonic missile not a ballistic missile. Are you saying your Lord Putin outright lied? Crazy
It was literally explained in the video mate the thing he’s holding is not the nose cone but part capsule for the warhead, the wreckage has been broken down by many experts and it’s definitely genuine of a Kinzhal. I understand you vatniks of limited intelligence likely don’t know what your own systems look like but there it is for you ;)
Of course the Ukrainians made denials initially, that’s standard procedure when your entire military is on a media blackout in preparation for the largest counteroffensive operations in almost a year, nothing gets released or confirmed publicly unless the military leadership determine its smarter to do so.
Is anyone really surprised either? Despite Putin’s claims Kinzhal is just an air launched ballistic missile, not a HCM or a HGV. The Patriot system is more than equipped to take out such threats, particularly when it only has a single target to contend with. There’s no systems limitation reason for why this wouldn’t be a probable outcome
@@Test4Echos it's not the entire missile, it's a pet of it. It also looks roughly the correct size, so either you're blind or talking shit
The Netherlands will supply parts of a Patriot air defence system, specifically 2 launchers and missiles, to Ukraine. The Netherlands is also responsible for training Ukrainian soldiers. Further The Netherlands will supply 100 vehicles fitted with anti-aircraft guns that were commercially purchased in the Czech Republic. Netherlands Minister of Defence Kajsa Ollongren reported this to the House today. During the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Ramstein, Germany, agreements were made to accelerate the replacement process for the Patriot. In Ramstein, the ministers of defence met for the eighth time.
Your pronunсiation of ukrainian last names was almost there, except for lt. general Oleshchuk, whose surname should sound more like [oleshchook] so don't bother yourself with so much apologies next time, you did a great job, as always.
Greetings from your Ukrainian subscriber.
Good video, I especially liked that you mentioned that you were fooled initially as well, but that you kept an open mind and continued to evaluate data as new information came in. Not many do that. I subscribed to your channel based solely on this video.
So did I.
@@denniswhite166 And in the end you were deceived, saying that the "patriot" destroyed the "dagger". :)))
@@Andy-kl1ry you didn't watch the video, did you?
@@yomama629 not so :)
@@Andy-kl1ry is "not so" the only thing your Russian to English translator could come up with?
Don't understand the big deal if it is hypersonic or just air to ground ballistic missile, or if it was shot down.
The real issue is at what % it can be intercepted. And what is the cost to make&shoot one versus to intercept it.
Meaning you can't relay air defense keep high value target safe if from example 3 missiles 1 or 2 comes through.
On other hand how much each side can use missiles. Meaning how much it cost and how much you can produce missiles to launch. Are we talking about air defense or missiles trying to hit targets.
That is the big question in war like this, about production, logistics and input/output.
Of course in media you can make big stories in matter like these, but besides propaganda they are not so big deal in outcome of war.
did you see that MALD decoy drone remains were just found in Ukraine? Very interested to hear your take on that. I'm wondering if they have explosive payloads, as a cheap cruise missile option
To the best of my knowledge - no. I’m pretty sure they don’t even have any targeting systems because… why would they?
Edit: So, I’ve read up on the development of the ADM-160 MALD and there WAS an experimental version called MALD-V which introduced a modular payload so that the MALD-V could take on board surveillance gear, jammers, etc.
So, even though it really wasn’t the idea behind the -V experiment, it could have been technically possible to produce a payload module with a warhead and turn the MALD into a cruise missile, just like the original commenter suggested. Mea culpa.
Interesting question . I do not know the system that replaced the TACIT RAINBOW..
But what's even better, if the MALDs clean out the path for Storm Shadow, bye bye Kerch bridge (and hopefully all ships and remaining fuel tanks in Sevastopol plus a bunch of S400 search radars).
Supposedly MALD was cancelled after only 150 were made. I'd say they improved it and made more or developed a better version as a dark program. MALD has one job: look like a F-117, F-22, F-35, B-52 or B1 or F-15 etc to seduce enemy resources away.
@@williamzk9083 The ADM-160 MALD is alive and well. It’s still being developed, produced, etc. The only thing resembling being “cancelled” is that shortly after the improved version, ADM-160C MALD-J (which is indeed really impressive), started being delivered in 2012, the older version (ADM-160B) stopped being ordered in favor of the new variant.
1. Russia makes boast about missile
2. Missile gets shot down
3. Russia 😮
authoritarian states love to lie about their capabilities. something about looking strong when you are weak
The Russians love to exaggerate their capabilities. The MiG-25 is a perfect example of this.
@@mr.nemesis6442 the Foxbat loop
@@mr.nemesis6442 Granted, but DoD fell for the hype. In their defense, during the height of the Cold War it was better to be safe than sorry and I'm kind of glad they did. The result was the F-15 Eagle. Arguably the finest interceptor on earth prior to the F-22 Raptor.
@Hawk Anonymous Oh sure, the Foxbat wasn't exactly a bad plane, it just made the US have a panic attack which led to the creation of the most successful modern fighter jet of all time.
Like everything else out of russia its all sizzle and no steak....just look at the Mig-25 "super fighter" that turned out to be anything but
Eh. The whole narrative around the MiG-25 was less about the Soviets lying about its purpose and more about the American media woozling it up and the Soviets choosing not to debunk them.
Not doing so was a mistake, though, since the *imaginary* MiG-25 became the target for the *real* F-15. Of course, the MiG-25 was meant to chase a ghost of its own, since it was built to intercept B-70s.
@@maiteleim well aware of all of that...my piont was russia never told the trurh and decided to let the west belive what they thought was reality and russia stupidly belived the west would never learn the truth that it was no fighter,let alone a "super fighter"....to put it into perspective during the Iran/ Iraq war (1980 to 1988) there is at least one account of an Iranian F-5E shooting down an Iraqi Mig-25
@@jaws666 Russia's been doing this since WW2 and has it down to a science.
@@heathwirt8919or so they think
@@heathwirt8919 Maybe instead of dumping money into psyops disrupting other countries they should have been using it to actually develop their "super weapons" 🤷
why don't you make the latest video about the Patriot being destroyed by the Kh-47? Are you afraid of this failure?
US trident speed: Mach Jesus
16:16 .. "You can't hit a target that's flying faster."_ is dumb on its face. Obviously that isn't true, just from basic common sense. If an object is flying slower, but will intersect with the faster target's path, it makes no difference what the target's velocity is.
Kinzal is like their best tanks in the world..... just a regular, nothing special.
YOU ARE SO WRONG ABOUT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE PATRIOT BATTERIES! I was in Riyadh Saudi Arabia during Desert Storm assigned to the 1700th AREFS at Riyadh Airport with 10 KC-135Q models refueling the F-117. Almost every night we had SCUDS launched at us and we heard the Patriots fire and saw the SCUDS destroyed. I have first hand experience with their success. If the Patriots weren't there, I might not be here! Your reporting is almost always right over the target but in this instance, I had to provide some counter information.
Oh apparently equipment can't be upgraded.
@@Just_A_Random_Desk He specifically stated that the Patriots weren't that good in Desert Storm. Perhaps reread what I wrote! I never addressed the Version 2 or Version 3 Patriots.
@@mpcaz my bad, my bad
His number comes from a US Department of Defense report about the Patriot's performance during the Gulf War and led to major improvements to the Patriot. The Patriot did intercept SCUD missiles but it still had a poor intercept rate.
@@onedeadpixel12 Not where I was being subjected to SCUD attacks! Maybe our Patriot batteries had better equipment since we were at the capital. We were constantly having to do FOD walks to pick up pieces of missiles from the taxiways. Also consider that if all Patriots were as successful as the ones that I witnessed first hand, the Pentagon wouldn't be able to go begging for money for updated systems. Military Industrial complex bullshit.
Tell me please, what patriot was destroyed by kinzhal yestarday? USA or Germany?
What a lie! You are sick with lies.
LOL that ending Scooby-Doo stinger was excellent haha. Great work explaining this as always Alex. I was kinda confused about all this and decided to wait for more comprehensive reporting from people who know better. From how confusing all of this is, looks like that was a good decision! Reassuring to hear
Patriot still going above and beyond and doing good work. We'll see if someone can develop something to counter the other hypersonics or not
Last I heard, we're developing a land-sea-air-space integrated satellite system to detect, track, and intercept future possible hypersonic _maneuverable_ threats.
Work on countering HGVs has been ongoing for a while now. Medium or long-range HGVs, like ICBMs and IRBMs, attain exoatmospheric altitudes during midcourse - HGVs do this in order to attain terminal high speeds used for maneuvers ("climb high, then dive fast and glide"). They are vulnerable to interception during midcourse phase by kinetic vehicle interceptors like those on the SM-3 series, interceptions which typically occur in the Mach 20+ range. I worked the SM-3 Blk IIA program before retirement back in 2012, and lets just say the program was very aware of maneuverable HGVs like the Chinese DF-21D ("carrier-killer") missiles back then. While I can neither "confirm nor deny" that SM-3s are now capable of intercepting true maneuvering HGVs (not "air-launched IRBMs") in midcourse, lets just say an assumption that in the last ten years some progress has been made is not hype.
@@seekrengr751 - That's much better than anything I could say about the program! I had just seen one video of a conference on countering hypersonic threats by the Center for Strategic...something or other and a really good video or two by Military Aviation History - both channels are available on TH-cam if anyone's interested...(anyone who _didn't_ literally work on an anti-hypersonics program 😉).
HGVs cannot manoeuvre. The dynamic forces would rip them to shreds. They also cannot use any form of radio control including GPS. The plasma created around the aircraft has the same effect as any other re-entry vehicle. They “can” use inertial guidance but the vibration of ultra high speed flight makes that unlikely. Basically you can have a hypersonic ballistic vehicle that’s aimed before it goes hypersonic. It’s called a ballistic missile. Anything else is pretty much pointless.
@@seekrengr751 I see no reason why they wouldn't be - I just expect engagement envelope to be somewhat different and smaller, as well as I think that issue might be actually minimum range at which SM-3 can be used successfully.
I would love to see a graph in the next five years of Russian military exports. My guess it's a massive nosedive...👍🇺🇦🇺🇲🇬🇧
🖕🇷🇺
what's with the tiny letters "🇺🇦🇺🇲🇬🇧"?
currently nosediving now i think
Five years? I think you’re giving more time than necessary.
@@Just_A_Random_Desk idk, just how it typed?
@@--Dani oh nvm on mobile it's flags but on PC it's just tiny letters
badass patriot system
Whole claim is fake.
Patriot site blew up and you say Kinzal is shot downed!?
This one is not a Kinzhal missile. Remind me after two years. You will have a different story.
I heard that even if you identify as a hyper-sonic missile you really are just a 1970’s Ballistic Missile.
The Missiles are really just "Fluid" 😂 . I'm not going to change my pronouns for them though.... You can't be ballistic one day and hypersonic the next.. Missiles have feelings too.
Big fan Alex. Your content is absolutely excellent. ❤
Your verbal content is really good, but I find your stock video use annoying & distracting. The video editing is too fast and irritating which takes away from your research and actual content. Stock video from a library is what the TV networks use to entertain their audience making up for their lack of information, background and a real crafted story. Please up your video game by adhering to “less is more”.
@@briancavanagh7048 I think some of this is fair, but none of this content is especially easy to produce in an engaging manner and remaining timely for the viewer I would argue. And at the end of the day, it is essentially ‘current affairs’ and while I’m sure he would like 3 months to produce a more ‘polished’ video (by your standards)… the relevance would not exist. Viewing Alex’s content as a credible source to flesh out mainstream news (in the uk at least) is where he gets the mark spot on. Remember attention span is dwindling, and punchy editing is favoured. For me, none of that distracts from the quality.
@@NNICKKK
Hey Nnickkk. Thanks for your response. I would refer you to the YT content of Perun. Essentially his content is a power point presentation with no video content at all. His high quality content is based on his verbal narration content not his fixed images, which he does one presentation a week. Your verbal content Nnickk is first rate so no need for you to get too worried about providing fast video editing. “Less is more”
As always, excellent narrative and coverage Alex 🤙
Yes a narrative much counter to facts th-cam.com/video/9gklH095o9s/w-d-xo.html
Ah.... Make that scratch 6 more. Launched from air land and sea.
Hi MR Hollings.
And Hi Sandboxx Team and comunity.
Could you make a Video about the Satan 2 Misile that is realy Hyped in rusia too.
Inb4 the Russian bots arrive
Apparently the ruzzy tried to hit a Patriot site near Kyiv; guess now they know it can stop those ballistic missiles, as specified.
So Russia launches long ranges missiles at Ukraine, yet describes the UK's supply of Storm Shadow long range missile as an 'escalation'!
Much, much longer range missiles. The Storm Shadow missiles supplied by the UK "only" have a range of over 560/260 km (normal/export version, not sure which one they got).
The Kh-101 cruise missiles that Russia has been launching at Ukraine for many months now have a range of over 2500 km...
This is as believable as the ghost of Kiev lol thanks for the lols
Great summary, Alex. Way to cut through the fog of reporting.
Excellent video, excellent reporting, love this channel. Love technical breakdowns.
Kinzhal is Dagger in Russian, hence google translated it to "we intercepted an enemy Dagger"
He was actually saying "we intercepted an enemy Kinzhal"
Intercepted right in the face blade first th-cam.com/video/9gklH095o9s/w-d-xo.html
*CORRECTION* during desert storm Patriot had a 94% interception rate, the problem was the SCUDs were breaking up and the warhead section would break loose from the SCUD before interception. And the Patriots didn't destroy the warheads on many intercepts.
Leading to secondary explosions on the ground.
...
Also PAC2 GEM-T are probably a large number of the donated missiles sent to Ukraine. Germany has ordered 100 GEM-T interceptors. (Likely replacements)
You would also want to use PAC2 GEM-T for maximum coverage against Russian missiles over a large area.
The batteries are most likely a mix, with a large amount of GEM-T made for interception of theatre ballistic missiles over a large area
The 94% was just a clever bit of propaganda. They counted Iraqi SCUDS missing their target, something that they did the vast majority of the time because of their unguided nature and the Iraqis poor targeting data, as « successful intercepts ». The actual range of successful intercept of the OG patriot for ballistic missiles was between 3 and 5%.
And I don’t know what versions the Saudi got, but those still struggled like hell against Iranian supplied and homemade Houthis long-range weaponry, including cruise missiles.
So that’s like trying to block someone from hitting you and you brush your forearm, but they still crack you in the face
@@nihluxler1890 It's really not propaganda. If the missile is not going to hit anything but desert why waste a missile on it.
As for the Saudis it is widely known that they are incompetent
I completely agree with you!! Patriot defense system is a hit to kill interceptor defense system. It doesn't have a warhead that explodes upon contact, and that's the main reason why a lot of Iraqi scud missile debris were found all over Saudi Arabian cities and Israeli cities, a lot of times warheads are still intact, during the dessert storm war. Patriot is no different from the other US Ballistic missile defense system THAAD, also a hit to kill defense system interceptor mainly used for Ballistic missile defense. People needs to realize that even a defense system armed with a warhead, like the Germany's IRIS -T, US NASAMS, and the famous Stinger manpads. you will find debris all over the place like in Ukraine after a successful interception.The subject that is being intercepted is many times bigger than the actual interceptor, the idea is to immobilize and get it down when you have an opportunity.
@@nihluxler1890the Saudis had more problems with their operators than they had with the system.
But you also forgot to mention that later after this was revealed, three Russian key people who are in charge of the design of these Kinzhal missiles were arrested in Russia. You know, if this is fake, then why would russians punish their own authors of this weapon?
shhh they are allergic to logic and you don't want to hurt their frail egos now do you.... wait say it louder!
You know something is true when Russia denies it.
You meant the west
@@AbuBawa-sw1ut what is the west denying now?
I feel the same way about Biden along with his crack military team of Austin & Milley. I can't wait to I see the results of the three stooges with their misadventure in Ukraine, especially after the Afghanistan Withdrawal.
@@AbuBawa-sw1ut did you get a new lada for posting this? Maybe a new dacha? Hopefully it has a working toilet..
@@John-mf6ky i don't even have a car but in the next 2-3 months I will be able to buy any car that I want
Let us never forget that Russia invented the concept of the Potemkin village. It fooled Catherine (2), the Great and modern Russia has perfected the subterfuge. So much so, that most of us were taken in, yet again. Your scholarship, knowledge, and analysis are outstanding. Thank you!
Counter subterfuge. Oh, how great your missiles are! But secretly, is this all they got? You know, like when your girlfriend tells you how well-endowed you are...
Moscow is a giant Pontemkin village. 99 percent of Russia is a broken mess
@@buddyrojek9417 Freshly painted rust
Sorry, we didnt know it was invincible.
Based Rhodesia
Heres the thing, the patriot intercept the target by physically hitting it right ?
Soo the kinzal is flying hypersonic, and patriot is also going fast. Wouldn't the kinzal be sooooo destroyed?
Fantastic analysis, as always!
Another well researched, clearly presented piece.
As for the Patriot system, not only is the PAC-3 much better at intercepting cruise and ballistic missiles than the PAC-1 and PAC-2, but you can fit four of them in each box and 16 per launch vehicle. So that's up to 96 missiles in a six launcher battery. That can engage 9 targets at once with an over 90% hit rate.
As for what to cover next, it would be nice to get some hard facts on what kind of fighters are available to send to Ukraine and what numbers are available.
The suggestions I've seen in the last few months are F-16, F/A-18, Rafale, Mirage 2000, Eurofighter Typhoon and JAS 39 Gripen.
Ukraine is clearly going to need fighters for air defense and ground support in the near future and we need to be planning on that.
True but the number of PAC-3 missiles in a single launcher depends on which version we’re talking about - the older PAC-3 (now called PAC-3 CRI) does pack 16 missiles per launcher, but the newer and more capable PAC-3 MSE fits 12 per launcher (the weird thing is that the “MSE”, despite sharing the PAC-3 name, is in reality a 100% new missile designed completely from scratch)
That's literally ground SPAMRAAM
Remember that a battery can have up to 16 launchers. 6 was only ever considered/conceived during the very early stages of development and prototyping…
@@MikeOxlong- Right.
I think the batteries Ukraine got have eight launchers.
Also the radars and command trucks can be placed miles away from the launchers making taking out a Patriot battery a difficult challenge.
unfortunately, it is clear that sufficient numbers for such a large country as Ukraine are available in a reasonable time frame only by American machines, i.e. F-16 and F-18. Considering the price and numbers produced, I'd bet on the F-16. In addition, if I take into account the concerns about sharing the most modern electronics, I again assume in layman's terms that older versions could be available for the F-16 where this would not be a major problem.
Remember, we launch ballistic missiles out of C-17 s all the time. Used for test purposes.
Pretty sure i need a source for that
@@ravener96 Not quite the same but there’s the term air launched ballistic missile on Wikipedia that details many of America’s early designs that where similar. The truth is we could make them as far back as the 1950s with the High Virgo. In the end though we canceled the project around the 1970s from concerns that every time a plane launches one of those missiles there would be a chance someone thinks it’s nuclear-tipped and triggers M.A.D.
Sure it is, but in their dreams 🤣🤣🤣 Just last night Kinzal destroyed Patriot in Kyiev 😉
I also wonder what they are talking now
They cabnt even intercept kh22 and now they intercept Kinzhal 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣.
Really TH-cam the only front where Ukraine is winning 🤣
"Kinzhal" is the Walmart "hypersonic" missile. Excellent content. Slava Ukraini!
USA doesnt have a functional hypersonic. Its last test failed. you know absolutely nothing about hypersonic missiles. Its already destroyed multiple high value targets in ukraine with footage.
Really? Wal-Mart? I better hurry down for the grandkids. I got a gopher problem. Think it'll help?
💙💛Glory to Ukraine
Khuiova vukraini
Geroyam khuiova
Your country is absolutely screwed for the next decades.
No EU or Nato membership any time soon
Millions of skilled workers left the country and will not come back to work for the terribly low wages you got
Destroyed infrastructure
Billions in debt for that stupid war
Is there really any reason to praise this country and encourage this war to proceed?
You failed so damn hard at softer politics to establish a position between two powers and will pay the price.
@@sovietrussia3874 the hell is this? Doesn't even make sense
The performance of the khinzal is probably SUPER overrated. I wouldn't be surprised if the propulsion systems weren't so roughshod only 10% of the missiles are actually capable of hypersonic flight.
Yeah I'd love to know what the failure rate is. You know it's gonna be crazy high.
Need to get into costs to understand the sustainability.
Pac-3 costs around 8 million per missile on the pessimistic side.
If Kinzhal is like the Iskander precises are similar to pac-3 more or less.
There is other part of this equation.
What's the value of the information gathered in Ukraine?
All radar signatures are being recorded and surely sent back to the US. Price of this intel?
I think US is learning A LOT by providing this systems.
Learning and improving with tons of information.
In the meantime Russia is eating hours of its Mig-31 and does engines where not made to last. They were made for speed. (in general fighters are no made to fly a lot).
I think this equation is paying off for the US, NATO and Ukraine for now
Is Russia capable of learning about Patriot systems? will see
Once PAC-3 started getting mass produced, the price for every missile would go down. That's why the F35 keeps getting cheaper every year.
The reason it cost so much was because no one was buying it then. There was no need for PAC-3s since no one was fighting a conventional war.
And then Russia invaded Ukraine and China starts getting more aggressive.
According to NATO F-35 pilots. Russia has been using a secret scan mode for their S-400 batteries during this war so F-35s flying over NATO airspace encountered an unknown radar contact for the first time. But after realizing it is S-400 it has been already catalogued and added to radar signature database. So yeah everything Russia does in this war shows their hand to NATO a lot more.
Kinzhal can't be shot down by a Patriot...Impossible...
I do hope that your joking.
@@ChristopherWentling Keep hoping.....Patriot is simply not capable of taking down hypersonics.....
Based on what? The weapon is a disgrace and of course patriot can intercept it as long as it is generally in front of the Kinzhal and not too far off axis.
Now they know that😅😅😅😅
@@asimoford4994 Really? Ukraine was claiming 6 more yesterday.
This Presentation on Kinzhal - Sorry Sandbox, Too Much Rambling. Needs better 'Organized Info' in Summary Packets 'For' and 'Against' then Conclusion. Never fail to watch you, Alex, always good stuff.
It would have been wise for the Ukraine military to keep the intercept quiet, not letting the enemy know what their capability actually is. In this case events overtook the narrative and let the cat out of the bag. Now Russia will have to make changes to counter the Patriot missile system.
I'm just guessing, but what if the Ukrainians don't need to worry about that? For all this time the Russians had such fancy missiles, but their slow kill chain and lack of information has prevented them from acquiring high-value Ukraine military targets that the missiles could be used on. If the Russians could have used their missiles to cripple the Ukrainian military, they would have already done it a long time ago. Instead they had to switch to stragetic bombardment against civilian infrastructure and population centers, which General Surovikin hoped would cripple Ukraine's ability to fight, but which failed to do so despite the number of innocent people killed. I suspect the only reason that Russia continues to waste its missiles on these repeated bombardments of cities is to try and wear down Ukrainian civilian morale, while at the same time trying to prop up Russian morale by showing that they're still hurting the Ukrainians despite the lack of successful ground battles.
By announcing that they can shoot down the missile that Russia said was unstoppable, the Ukrainians can cheer up their citizens a little while embarassing the Russians and hurting their confidence in their technology. And is there really such a downside? Sandboxx was saying the fact that Patriot could intercept a Kinzhal shouldn't be so surprising to us, since it was never the breakthrough in technology that the Russians claimed it was. Even if the Russians know that Kinzhal is vulnerable, that doesn't necessarily mean they have the technical ability or resources to fix the problem, especially since their supply of Western parts is restricted. Given the state of Russia right now I would sooner expect America to improve the Patriot than for Russia to improve the Kinzhal.
@@michaelparker9083 Many good points but this incident was the very first time the Patriot system was used against the Kinzhal. Up to this point the effectiveness was an open question based mostly on knowledgeable opinion. I'm sure Ukraine's and US military would have preferred to keep it that way. Now the point is moot.
@@heathwirt8919 But that's precisely what I'm saying: I'm not so sure that the ability of the Patriot to shoot down this missile is some kind of big secret that the US government or Ukrainian military thought was important to protect. The mere fact that the Russians know that it worked doesn't mean they know why it worked, or give them the ability to counter it.
Countries routinely boast about what their equipment can do, and only hide details that they specifically think could be exploited for weakness. Like, did the United States go into the Gulf War trying to pretend that the M1 Abrams had no advantage over the T-72? They may hide exactly how they manufacture the armor, but they'll gladly tell you how strong it is.
I'm curious, how do you think the Russians would actually take advantage of this information?
@@michaelparker9083 The true performance specifications of virtually any US military system is usually classified as secret or top secret. At least the one's I've worked on. The enemy knowing these true specifications makes a countermeasure easier to design. Loose lips sink ships.
@Atheos B. Sapien (Ubi dubium ibi liberatas) Non Sequitur.
Great job digging into this and kudos for naming your sources as well as stating your limitations. Keep up the great work Alex!
Indeed Kudos for a lot of hard work.
The Russian cope is amazing.
They just intercepted 6 more 😂😂😂😂
In all fairness, the patch for the software error was LITERALLY one day late. As it turns out the cause was an inaccurate calculation of the time since boot due to computer arithmetic errors. Specifically, the time in tenths of second as measured by the system's internal clock was multiplied by 1/10 to produce the time in seconds. This calculation was performed using a 24 bit fixed point register. In particular, the value 1/10, which has a non-terminating binary expansion, was chopped at 24 bits after the radix point. The small chopping error, when multiplied by the large number giving the time in tenths of a second, lead to a significant error. Indeed, the Patriot battery had been up around 100 hours, and an easy calculation shows that the resulting time error due to the magnified chopping error was about 0.34 seconds.
Because of the way the Patriot computer performs its calculations and the fact that its registers are only 24 bits long, the conversion of time from an integer to a real number cannot be any more precise than 24 bits. This conversion results in a loss of precision causing a less accurate time calculation. The effect of this inaccuracy on the range gate's calculation is directly proportional to the target's velocity and the length of the the system has been running. Consequently, performing the conversion after the Patriot has been running continuously for extended periods causes the range gate to shift away from the center of the target, making it less likely that the target, in this case a Scud, will be successfully intercepted.
Excellent explanation! I remembered something about the incorrect timing, but did not know the details. Thanks.
It didn't help that right after it happened a Ukrainian official denied that a hypersonic missile was shot down, only to admit the next day that a hypersonic missile was indeed shot down. I took that likely to be due to him not having authorization from his superiors to release that information when he made the first statement. Of course Russia and their supporters have latched on to that as "proof" that it wasn't shot down. There is a more recent video of the wreckage/parts being examined by experts and journalists in Kiev showing that the numbers on the parts do match up to the Kinzhal missile but the RuZZian supporters online still claim it didn't happen..
Anything travelling at 12,348 kilometers per hour will not survive the impact . It will be pulverized when it hits the ground. What "wreckage" are you talking about?
As always, excellent content Sir! And a fun fact to go with it, your pronunciation of the Ukrainian names is actually pretty decent. You did not "butcher" any of them, which for a native English speaker (whom, I presume, you are) is a very decent effort.
I thought that the Netherlands also provided an Patriot system. Keep up the good work! Nice video
At the moment it's only one from the US and one from the Germans.
No, our prime minister said we would do that but later backed down. In the end we only provided two launchers that were added to the German system.
@@nietkees6906 two additional launchers helps.
@@geoff4383 Not much. People often count the amount of SAMs by the amount of launchers, but the amount of radars is far more inportant.
I mean it all helps, the launchers are 10 million a pop with missiles that cost 4 million. I’d be surprised if the launchers didn’t cost more. It’s a huge expense. The radars also have a range over 100 km. Where as the pac 3s range is around 50km meaning you need multiple launchers to service one radar. I’d be surprised if the logistical bottleneck isn’t the launchers and the missiles.
No one ever confirmed interception of Kinzhal, except that stoned Clitschko "major",BTW he was pushing so hard "Ghost of Kyiv" fairytale also soooo...
Sure, by placing Patriot in open field? 🤣🤣🤣🤣
So far Kinzhal 0 : Patriot 6, well done ukronazis
Once again the superior Russian weapons systems turns out to be not so superior
Wtf? Keep sharing fake news😂
you told us this not to long ago but, this time you laid it out a lot better, thanks for that. I for one appreciate the work that you do for us. keep it up. thanks again. " videos are great "
Ukrainian here. Your pronunciation is on point. The reason you may see 'g' swapped for 'h' is a change in the transliteration rules Ukraine uses, but both letters meant convey the same sound. For example, if I would've gotten my passport just 2 years later, my name would be spelled Serhii, not Sergii. I guess the idea is to be clear it's not a soft g, but closer to hard g.
It seems kinzhal actually damaged patriot system😅
Watching your video is very educational and very interesting, with regards to the capabilities of different missiles and platforms. As I’m by no means an expert on missiles and the technology in todays warfare, as I’m just a regular joe living in the sticks. However I do watch the news and keep up with non msm sources etc. now in my view it sounds like people are convinced the Russians are bumbling idiots who are lost on tactics and warfare in general, in your video it sounds like the Patriot system and other various systems easily takes out Russias “best” missile system. So now as a regular guy I’m now confused a bit. If Russia is so incompetent, why is all of NATO and various other countries giving Ukraine billions and billions in money and weapons with an agreement to keep it all flowing? Plus now Leppard tanks and F16 fighters and Missile systems over and above the Patriot Missile system. I see on my computer very advanced fighters, AWACS planes, attack helicopters, P38s, black hawks, global Hawks, and troops, all patrolling the skies and ground around Moldova, Black Sea, and up and down the Russian border. That’s just the US alone, and we all know there’s many counties there with their planes and hard ware. So again I’m a little confused, because if the Patriot System can handle all of Russia’s best missiles and their troops are idiots and their armor is crap. Then why are we spending billions and billions and have many countries involved too? Sounds to me like a Patriot system and maybe the Ukraine army teamed up with either Canada or British soldiers could do the trick and call it a day! No? See now this is why I’m confused, not to mention China is trying to instigate a war too. Being a guy from the sticks what you think is needed to defeat Russia! Hey thanks and great video!
The fact Patriot is working is a huge bonus. After years of meh success and negative press, these are big wins for the system. Cracks in Russian equipment are simply becoming more and more apparent
Wow, can I offer you some more Kool-Ad. There isn't a single system out there, from any nation, that can track a hypersonic missile. Their radar signature is practically non existent.
Thanks Alex. A lot of good info in this vid. And thanks for the shoot down affirmation. Tom.
When the word comes from Ruzzia, I run out of salt, I don’t ever have enough 🧂 salt!……Great presentation Alex, appreciate the hyper-detailed work👍🏻…Glory to Ukraine 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
Fake news when shoot down khinzal😂
@@Patir_Sigma source?
Source.. Believe me bro
Except it didnt happen.
i was a little surprised so many defense experts didnt know that most missiles dont have the war head right in the front... most of them need avionics in the nose cone. just like the tomahawk. the warhead sits a little back. of course we have no images of what a real Kinzhal warhead looks like but if they made a version with a bunker busting one then that thing they found looks exactly like what one would expect for a concrete penetration warhead. a lot of material and a little void for some high explosion.
People assumed that was the nose cone.
You are completely right, Russian Wiki states about Iskander (which is actually the same missile, only ground-launched):
"Non-cluster munitions for hitting point targets
Non-cassette warheads are designed to destroy point fortified objects such as command bunkers, reinforced concrete warehouse buildings, barracks, fuel storage tanks, and the like. The anti-bunker ammunition is generally similar in weight to the BETAB-500U concrete-piercing bomb, due to the kinetic energy and hard shell designed to break through reinforced concrete floors up to 1.2 meters thick and detonate indoors [45]."
There are images of failed Kinzhal missiles during testing that show what's underneath the nosecone, specifically the warhead casing, and it looks more or less identical to the one in Ukraine.
@@Skinflaps_Meatslapper Nobody except ukrainian propogandists said, that it was kinzhal. They are using another fake as "proof" for this fake.
@@Skinflaps_Meatslapper No the one ukraine took out was a BETAB-500 bomb.
Thanks Alex for all your hard work and investigation skills well that made me feel a little better, now, how capable are these Chinese missiles? Is it everything that they claim it to be?
And now yes to rain on your parade th-cam.com/video/9gklH095o9s/w-d-xo.html
So the actual warhead of the kinzal and the ground launched version is basically their 500kg bunker buster bomb.
This aged like a milk, lol
Russias most effective weapon seems to be propaganda😅,its faster than any of thier hypersonic missiles.
I thought The Pac 2 in first Iraq war had a high hit rate, but lots of them had hit there target destroy the missile rocket booster in the air but not the warhead, so it still end up landing randomly in the city in parts, but with the warhead Intact.
Yes, that original report and subsequent testimony in front of Congress counted that and many others not directly on target as a "miss".
Which I guess turned out okay since it forced our engineers to improve the system! 😃
That was PAC-1. PAC-2 is a long range anti aircraft missile and PAC-3 a medium range anti missile missile (endo atmospheric only), PAC-4 is a bit of a waste of money done for the sake of Israel. I'd say there will be a need for an extended range PAC-2 with about 2-3 times the range. We've seen how problematic S-400 can be with its 200km range and 400km range. The glide bombs Russia is launching have a 50km-70kmm range and at best PAC-2 has 150km (realistically 100km) which would mean Patriot would need to be placed within 20km of the border to intercept Russian bombers releasing glid bombs. A system as big as Patriot would be detected and targeted by artillery for Sure.
That’s true. Also, a lot of Scuds just kinda fell apart midair, especially the ones that were jury rigged to give greater range, which obviously made “interception” impossible (although said missiles were already destroyed).
One thing that people tend to not get about these hypersonic missiles is that while they're hypersonic for their glide phase, they aren't necessarily hypersonic for their terminal phase. Once they get to the lower layers of the atmosphere, they tend to slow down because otherwise the drag would put too much strain on the missile, but because they slow down, they are a lot easier to hit.
The scary part is that they are hard to shoot down until right before they hit something, so the stakes are a lot higher.
Duh. Everyone knows this about atmospheric pressure but kinzal is hypersonic in lower elevation with maximum atmospheric pressure that's why it's shell is so thick.
This is for HGV's Kh-47 is not an HGV
@@ChuckyRed06 It has more to do with the shell's material and its ability to endure extremely high temperatures.
@@ChuckyRed06 The bigger issue is that, at extreme speeds, you don't have much maneuverability. And most shoot downs aren't tail chasing the missile, they're just trying occupy the same space as the incoming missile at the same time. Which is easier to do the more predictable the flight path happens to be.
yer. They still go in a straight line. Fast or slow its just basic maths at that point
It may or may not be a Kinzal... it could be the internal parts of the older Istander missile ithe Kinzal is based on. Furthermore, it's easy to claim you've shot something down when you have the wreckage of something made to ht a target and explode.
Even so, there are Avanguard and Zircon hpersonic missiles in Russia aresnal.
Yeah, right, my ass they did. The video of the event shows ~30 patriot missiles fired, and single Kinzhal at the end flattening down the Patriot battery. Officially, "it was damaged".
Ha ha ha ha ha , THIS DIDNT AGE WELL 🤭 , just like America military all ego and no show .
It always surprised me that a nation that produced the Lada for decades, could do anything better.
Yes they make Lada and they makes the rockets you clowns buys for your space traveling for more than 50 years.
@@AbuBawa-sw1ut So... Stuff that basicly USSR created and not Russia? :)
Sorry to ruin your cope filled twitter styled perception of reality but anderibt and alex are dead wrong,why ? Because anderibt himself without knowing debunked the whole claim. He posred verious pictures which he was trying to convince people that a bunch of ruble and unrecognisable wreckage are the fuselage and the fins but he also posted a few other pictures one featured a very interesting object, after it a picture of the main piece with the hole in it. Why is the aforementioned picture of object important ? Well because it shows a BETAB-500 bomb which by coincidence has the same blunt nose, width, length and the two hole present on the object featured by the ukrainians
The previous so called crash of kinzhal may not even be a kinzhal but an oniks p800 and while one twitter user was trying to convince us real hard that the range didnt wasnt possible he forgot that the caspian sea existed and that the russians have ships there.
The base where the migs are is northeast from the crash sights so why would the mig go southeast then turn west and lauch it instead of going straight for ukraine ?
@@kuronyra1709 is it the USSR that was building them in the last 20 years? According to you racist clowns,the Russians can't do anything.
weren't ladas of the era basically copies of order era fiats?
Even idiot will see that ukrainianans are showing BETAB-500 bomb (2.2m) while kinzhal have different shape(7.2m).
the speed of a hypersonic missile means that a defending SAM can hit those that are travelling directly toward the launcher, but if the incoming is off-axis, its going to find its range severely restricted.
Post numbers instead of words. For example how much is the reduction of the side range of a patriot missile system against a mach 10 hypersonic missile?
Launch angle is important. They tried several angles and had some misses until they got it right in the very same first engagement.
Those are not part of a kinzhel but are a kinzhel, ... if it shows and smell as a scam,,... it's maybe a scam....
I hope Russa totally Destroyes Every thing Ukrain pops up . Go Russa . Zelensky is a Punk . Russa No.1 !
Great report Alex, thanks.
A refreshingly informative and non click bait video. I actually learnt a lot from this. Definitely earned my sub. Looking forward to more such content. Thumbs up from Australia 🇦🇺 🦘👍
How much do the intercepters cost per shot ?
Well, as long as it's less than 13x the Kindzhal's cost, it's technically cost-effective.
@@LoisoPondohva ya you can't just do cost comparison bc you don't really know what damage it would cause if it hit if it wasn't cost effective the Israelites wouldn't use it
@@lepepelepub12 it's hard to figure cost of a intercept when u don't really know how much damage it would have done to what I'm assuming they are protecting very key shit
@@josephsmith6777 that too. What I was talking about is even before that is taken into account. US GDP is 13x the Russian one, so if the interceptor is 12x the cost of the missile, Russia will still run out of money faster.
@@LoisoPondohva true that's a bad scenario but I get you're point Russia has done very good considering the sanctions for example if you put those sanctions on china it would implode inside 6 months but bc of Russian energy metal and sanctions busting they have faired better than expected but they are robbing peter to pay Paul and once they loose the energy money it will be over fast