Operations Management using Excel: Seasonality and Trend Forecasting

In this video I explain how to create a forecasting model in Excel for a data set that involves both trend and seasonality. I chose not to de-seasonalize data set before finding the trend parameters.
Dataset URL: Copy and Paste it into Excel or work in Google Sheets
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...
I posted a follow up video in which you can handle multiple forecasts at the same time for multiple SKUs (Stock Keeping Units).
• Seasonality and Trend ...
An alternative method could be to use a multiple linear regression model. And I think the regression model is more practical. Yes, I have recorded a video for that as well. The link for the video is • Seasonality and Trend ...
These videos are created for the students at The College at Brockport, State University of New York. However anyone can benefit from them as they should work for any Operations Management class.

[@goforward12ify]

THIS VIDEO IS SO UNDERRATED, IT SHOULD BE ON THE TOP OF THE PAGES

[@arifrayhan1126]

exactly

[@AnkitPatel234]

Exactly. Love from India.

[@OscarFromIndia]

I agree

[@Rajdeepdey943]

Absolutely

[@zazisosibo6015]

Nothing but the truth there.I passed an interview practical with this video.

[@jamesjennings9438]

This is absolutely an AWESOME technique! The seasonal adjustment is exactly what I needed and I put this into actual use -- Thank you for helping me look good to my boss!

[@debanshumajumdar9790]

Dear Mustafa sir, the whole TH-cam community, and the whole world are blessed to have you here. You answered all the questions that were coming into my mind as the video progressed. It was like you were reading my mind and answering all the questions that I have.
Thank you sir

[@mcanbolat]

Thank you!

[@97NRBhgfdkjsvfdkjl]

Wow, incredibly helpful. I learned more from this video than I've learned from the actual class all semester.

[@fabianl9465]

This video is literally a must for everyone that works as a planner. It’s one of the best educational videos out there

[@fsociety_]

Hy, did this help you in planning in real life? I am a Production Planner myself and I want to know which forecast method people normally use in forecasting demand in real life scenarios.

[@randominternetviewer166]

​@@fsociety_ It depends on the data. This one he presented works well if the data has obvious repeatable patterns that repeat every year, like the one shown in the chart. If it doesnt have that, this method will easily fail.

[@jabulanisello3712]

This is the best explanation I've found and it basically answered even the questions I didn't know I had. Thank you. I've subscribed to your channel as well.

[@abhinavgupta1195]

You answered all the questions that were coming into my mind as the video progressed.

[@dwnttttttyyyyypppppp]

Many videos are watching, so im here and only this video I got the answer. Thankyou, love from Indonesia.

[@anneliesehanson5256]

This video was so incredibly helpful! I love how you explained everything.

[@matiuszhu8967]

Thank god i found your video man. You don't know how much I needed this before my interview. LIFESAVERRRRR

[@josephmastropietro5810]

Incredibly helpful. Great walkthrough, I was able to replicate the process with my data and drive some great discussion.

[@iPururin]

Straightforward and practical presentation. Thank you.

[@y020380]

This was extremely helpful, THANKYOU!

[@bensmith6987]

This is much clear explanation than my prof who has 30 years of experience. Thank you so much.

[@shubhamraje6122]

Very well depicted. Follows all baby steps. Must watch for a newbie learner!

[@zorkminer]

I don't comment much, but this video is amazing. I'm impressed that a video so short could be so informative.

[@mcanbolat]

Thank you!

[@utopia800]

Thanks a lot man, amazing tutorial!!!! So happy to find this :) just simply brilliant

[@peterdoherty4558]

It was great when you taught me years ago and it's even better now that I have some real world experience. Fantastic!

[@mcanbolat]

Thank you Peter! Nice to hear from you!

[@michaelyounes29]

Absolutely fantastic explanation. You sir are a star!

[@atgny]

Thank you for this very detailed review of forecasting! Amazing!!!! :)

[@jbyxxx]

Thanks for such detailed explanation. I was looking for something else but now know something new :)

[@kellyzimmermann3391]

This has helped me so much!! Thank YOU Mustafa!

[@kamsun508]

dude, it is a amazing video , very helpful. thank you a lot

[@selimcanpolat8664]

just predicted my future bills on excel w/ this method, thanks a lot!

[@deuskrieg5635]

This video gets the number 1 sport for the most informative 13 minutes of my planning life.

[@mcanbolat]

Thanks.

[@danelleduardorapozoramirez1030]

Amazing video, i was looking for something like this for a while. Subscribed.

[@southbayeric]

Great example my friend. Very useful!

[@godfreyharris4582]

Dr. Mustafa is a Genous. He makes complex work easy to do.

[@shikhajaiswal5148]

This is the best video I came across on model for forecast

[@oddmik7273]

Bravo Monsieur,
Thank you for your explications.

[@daniel_ptt]

Sir, you are the man of career development, love your videos

[@Chanheegogo]

Thank you so much for sharing this technique. Very clear and simple to understand for even beginner for demand planning Thank you so much. I will try to utilize this method in my workplace

[@jieyeye7302]

Many thanks! Really good explained!

[@OldMenAreHip1]

Incredible vid. Helped me on my exam with seasonal linear trend forecasting

[@ahammadgalib5810]

Awesome video, easy explanation, great presentation. Thank you very much. 👍

[@qianwu1873]

This is exactly what I was looking for!! Super helpful for my upcoming interview.

[@rounaksinghbuttar9083]

God you're a genius. No one else has explained forecasting using Excel for Production and Operations Management as well as you sir.

[@mcanbolat]

Thank you!

[@patrickfranciotti6212]

Thank you @mustafa. Saved my life with this video. Definitely subscribing.

[@AdamTauro]

Thank you Mustafa! Very helpful!

[@linaf6299]

Thank you Mustafa.. very clear & helpful!!

[@ektajain334]

AMAZING EXPLANATION- also learnt renaming of a range. thanks sir

[@didimples]

amazing breakdown of the forecast methods!

[@dianap.carlos4934]

Excellent video. Thank you very much for your help Dr. Canbolat.

[@Rabixter]

Nice one, I liked the seasonality index idea. It's very simple but still gives a decent accuracy.

[@vishalkulkarni9227]

One of the great video regarding forecasting. 👏 Thank you so much need more video like this. Thank you so much.

[@drinkbeerandchillwithmzohm4507]

You should get an award for this video sir 🙌🏿🙌🏿🙌🏿

[@shashankvaradhi9290]

Very very informative. Great explanation. Thank you so much!!

[@knockoffnomad]

Thank you! This was so helpful

[@cowboybuddhaful]

THANK YOU! This is great.

[@peiyuanshao6248]

Thank you! That's pretty helpful.

[@khaledalharbi4028]

Thank you so much! I've learned a lot from this video.

[@Kentucky-ev7bd]

Very nice!! Love it!! The only thing I would say add is a quick explanation of key terms. Slope, intercept, seasonality.

[@haveyoumetpia]

I got everything that I need. Well explained. Thank you to the creator of this video.
New subscriber here 🤗

[@valentinapatino8215]

Thank you so much for sharing your knowledge! An amazing technique

[@drmilk1100]

best video for forecasting!!!

[@madinat.3863]

you're the best! thanks for explaining

[@dalex7777]

This is GOLD. Thank you so much +MustafaCanbolat!

[@angiesmith3386]

Amazing! Thank you! I agree with FSK... you made this so easy!

[@varunsurya6811]

I loved this method. Superb.

[@PradeepRamesh-ew7uh]

Simple to understand and Great video

[@yordanmihaylov5986]

Perfect video , very helpful

[@Simon-pt4ox]

perfect video! thank you very much for this!

[@mahadev2023]

Thank you Dr. Mustafa. You described very well.

[@aloy5678]

Excellent Video , Thank you so much Mustafa

[@lennywilson2702]

Thank you.Excellent video.

[@chrisdireduryan]

This video is so educating it made me post a comment. Couldn't be better. Thanks a million

[@mcanbolat]

Thank you!

[@huyhelloworld]

Very useful. Thanks a lot!

[@AtomTiger3460]

What a godly video *praise*

[@aminualiyu555]

Thank you, so much for this insight.

[@anihusein6168]

Dear Mustafa, you are great.

[@amithmihiranga1913]

Thank you so much. You made my task so much easy with this nice video

[@elenamohanty517]

Hi Mustafa, this was great! thanks a lot for your video!

[@hassanalianees5530]

This was so helpful. Thanks

[@sebastianmakaruk7339]

Great video. Thanks so much! :)

[@azizony123]

Awesome Mustafa, very well explained........

[@DavidSme]

Hi Mustafa, very helpful video. Your voice is also pleasant to listen to. Thank you!

[@mcanbolat]

Thank you!

[@diegocanales6783]

Thanks, so muchh the video was really clear and the document help a lot to put It in practise. thanks a lot again.

[@helpmetoreach10ksubsbefore97]

It's very useful. Thank you

[@alexpressley4469]

sindex! Heck yeah. Great video.

[@woodypham6474]

I hope that you will keep doing forecast for different kind of business sales. That would be great

[@SuperAchraf91]

Well explained thank you so much Mustafa

[@thanhthaovothi3576]

Love your video so muchhhh!

[@mcanbolat]

Thank you!

[@KevinNguyenSESE]

Very well done!

[@vishalkulkarni9227]

Great Video, This Video should be at Top...Amazing learned alot and would like to use this in real life. Thank you so much 😊

[@ashupashu5559]

Nice video Mr. Canbolat.

[@johntimothyvillacorte9115]

Awesome!! 👍🏼

[@TristanBailey]

Great forecast work and nice and straight forward. Many other examples are more limited and don’t go this far.

[@rohanchadha3506]

Great video!

[@jacksambrano25]

GREAT JOB - THANKS :)

[@evguenivassiliev4778]

Amazing!! Thank you!

[@SanjayVerma-bv6dt]

Thank you. It's a good one.

[@franckkarinamaryo1336]

Thank you very much Dr

[@eduardocastilleja6665]

Great tutorial.

[@mohammaddanish1670]

Great 👍🏻 explained well

[@callmeazyy]

Thank you very much Mustafa

[@pinkaura6983]

Thank you so much for this

[@OlugunnaAdeifeAlabi]

I hardly comment on videos here but this is wow!!!!!!

[@mcanbolat]

Couple of people criticized that I didn't de-seasonalize before finding the trend. No one can prove that the model will be superior if we de-seasonalize. Below is a link with a small simulation with random dataset. You can refresh it in Excel using F9 or you can enter a value in an empty cell to refresh in Google. I calculated the MAPE for both deseasonalized and not deseasonalized models. I have shown empirically that there is no obvious benefit of removing seasonality before finding the trend parameters.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YVjz1IZT8Hd489ZCifAIM5yTiuyk0qdcoCrdWIbBruk/edit?usp=sharing

[@lalu225]

Thank you very much, your video is very useful. Also, I tested the excel sheet that simulates the difference between the two trending approaches and it seems like the the differences in error is indeed random. Do you know if there are any papers or studies suggesting otherwise? Where did people get this impression from, that one needs to de-seasonalise before finding the trend? I'd be interested if this is true over say 100k trials - I'll attempt to run a python script to test it and check the distribution of outcomes

[@mcanbolat]

lalu225 I haven’t looked at the literature but if someone proves that there is no benefit it may get published. It would be interesting to try this on a large number of datasets and report empirical output.

[@helloh5727]

Thabks for the videos man, I am an operations and supply chain management major and your videos are amazing.

[@ammaralolaqi7627]

Thank you a lot Dr. Mustafa for this great video.
I have 2 queries:
- is there a name for this forecasting method ?
- What about if you had a data set for one year only, 12 months ? (Means January do not repeat etc...). Anything will be applied differently then ?

[@yassineerrachid3561]

Thank you so much 🙏🏻

[@navalksa]

this should be on top