Operations Management using Excel: Seasonality and Trend Forecasting
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 5 ก.พ. 2025
- In this video I explain how to create a forecasting model in Excel for a data set that involves both trend and seasonality. I chose not to de-seasonalize data set before finding the trend parameters.
Dataset URL: Copy and Paste it into Excel or work in Google Sheets
docs.google.co...
I posted a follow up video in which you can handle multiple forecasts at the same time for multiple SKUs (Stock Keeping Units).
• Seasonality and Trend ...
An alternative method could be to use a multiple linear regression model. And I think the regression model is more practical. Yes, I have recorded a video for that as well. The link for the video is • Seasonality and Trend ...
These videos are created for the students at The College at Brockport, State University of New York. However anyone can benefit from them as they should work for any Operations Management class.
THIS VIDEO IS SO UNDERRATED, IT SHOULD BE ON THE TOP OF THE PAGES
exactly
Exactly. Love from India.
I agree
Absolutely
Nothing but the truth there.I passed an interview practical with this video.
Dear Mustafa sir, the whole TH-cam community, and the whole world are blessed to have you here. You answered all the questions that were coming into my mind as the video progressed. It was like you were reading my mind and answering all the questions that I have.
Thank you sir
Thank you!
This video is literally a must for everyone that works as a planner. It’s one of the best educational videos out there
Hy, did this help you in planning in real life? I am a Production Planner myself and I want to know which forecast method people normally use in forecasting demand in real life scenarios.
@@fsociety_ It depends on the data. This one he presented works well if the data has obvious repeatable patterns that repeat every year, like the one shown in the chart. If it doesnt have that, this method will easily fail.
Many videos are watching, so im here and only this video I got the answer. Thankyou, love from Indonesia.
God you're a genius. No one else has explained forecasting using Excel for Production and Operations Management as well as you sir.
Thank you!
I don't comment much, but this video is amazing. I'm impressed that a video so short could be so informative.
Thank you!
This video gets the number 1 sport for the most informative 13 minutes of my planning life.
Thanks.
Dr. Mustafa is a Genous. He makes complex work easy to do.
This is absolutely an AWESOME technique! The seasonal adjustment is exactly what I needed and I put this into actual use -- Thank you for helping me look good to my boss!
You answered all the questions that were coming into my mind as the video progressed.
This is much clear explanation than my prof who has 30 years of experience. Thank you so much.
Wow, incredibly helpful. I learned more from this video than I've learned from the actual class all semester.
This is the best video I came across on model for forecast
You should get an award for this video sir 🙌🏿🙌🏿🙌🏿
Thank god i found your video man. You don't know how much I needed this before my interview. LIFESAVERRRRR
just predicted my future bills on excel w/ this method, thanks a lot!
Sir, you are the man of career development, love your videos
This video is so educating it made me post a comment. Couldn't be better. Thanks a million
Thank you!
Couple of people criticized that I didn't de-seasonalize before finding the trend. No one can prove that the model will be superior if we de-seasonalize. Below is a link with a small simulation with random dataset. You can refresh it in Excel using F9 or you can enter a value in an empty cell to refresh in Google. I calculated the MAPE for both deseasonalized and not deseasonalized models. I have shown empirically that there is no obvious benefit of removing seasonality before finding the trend parameters.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YVjz1IZT8Hd489ZCifAIM5yTiuyk0qdcoCrdWIbBruk/edit?usp=sharing
Thank you very much, your video is very useful. Also, I tested the excel sheet that simulates the difference between the two trending approaches and it seems like the the differences in error is indeed random. Do you know if there are any papers or studies suggesting otherwise? Where did people get this impression from, that one needs to de-seasonalise before finding the trend? I'd be interested if this is true over say 100k trials - I'll attempt to run a python script to test it and check the distribution of outcomes
lalu225 I haven’t looked at the literature but if someone proves that there is no benefit it may get published. It would be interesting to try this on a large number of datasets and report empirical output.
Thabks for the videos man, I am an operations and supply chain management major and your videos are amazing.
Thank you a lot Dr. Mustafa for this great video.
I have 2 queries:
- is there a name for this forecasting method ?
- What about if you had a data set for one year only, 12 months ? (Means January do not repeat etc...). Anything will be applied differently then ?
It was great when you taught me years ago and it's even better now that I have some real world experience. Fantastic!
Thank you Peter! Nice to hear from you!
Incredible vid. Helped me on my exam with seasonal linear trend forecasting
One of the great video regarding forecasting. 👏 Thank you so much need more video like this. Thank you so much.
Very well depicted. Follows all baby steps. Must watch for a newbie learner!
thanks brother
i will start my new job as an executive manager for a small factory and this is going to help a lot
few question
what if there are "controllable" factors that will effect the demand, for example, huge random advertising, or getting new businesses to order the products in large number
I mean it will not be just seasonal, is there a way to determine the future demand?
I have one in mind but not sure if it's scientific.
@@MohaAlraed my take is that since those events weren't seasonal you shouldn't take it into account when doing your forecast.
Thank you very much! Just what I was looking for. Super helpful!
Excellent video. Thank you very much for your help Dr. Canbolat.
Dear Mustafa, you are great.
Very nice!! Love it!! The only thing I would say add is a quick explanation of key terms. Slope, intercept, seasonality.
I hardly comment on videos here but this is wow!!!!!!
Simple to understand and Great video
This is the best explanation I've found and it basically answered even the questions I didn't know I had. Thank you. I've subscribed to your channel as well.
Thank you @mustafa. Saved my life with this video. Definitely subscribing.
AMAZING EXPLANATION- also learnt renaming of a range. thanks sir
I got everything that I need. Well explained. Thank you to the creator of this video.
New subscriber here 🤗
amazing breakdown of the forecast methods!
This has helped me so much!! Thank YOU Mustafa!
Thank you Dr. Mustafa. You described very well.
Awesome video, easy explanation, great presentation. Thank you very much. 👍
Incredibly helpful. Great walkthrough, I was able to replicate the process with my data and drive some great discussion.
Absolutely fantastic explanation. You sir are a star!
Awesome Mustafa, very well explained........
Great Video, This Video should be at Top...Amazing learned alot and would like to use this in real life. Thank you so much 😊
Amazing video, i was looking for something like this for a while. Subscribed.
Great forecast work and nice and straight forward. Many other examples are more limited and don’t go this far.
Hi Mustafa, very helpful video. Your voice is also pleasant to listen to. Thank you!
Thank you!
Thanks, so muchh the video was really clear and the document help a lot to put It in practise. thanks a lot again.
best video for forecasting!!!
I loved this method. Superb.
Thank you so much for sharing this technique. Very clear and simple to understand for even beginner for demand planning Thank you so much. I will try to utilize this method in my workplace
This video was so incredibly helpful! I love how you explained everything.
Thank you so much. You made my task so much easy with this nice video
you're the best! thanks for explaining
Thank you so much for sharing your knowledge! An amazing technique
Very very informative. Great explanation. Thank you so much!!
Hi Mustafa, this was great! thanks a lot for your video!
Could someone please help understand the period column that was plugged in here? Is that the correct way to do it or is it just a representation of certain values that we might have?
Nice one, I liked the seasonality index idea. It's very simple but still gives a decent accuracy.
Excellent Video , Thank you so much Mustafa
Straightforward and practical presentation. Thank you.
Done. Thank you po, Ma'am!
Thank you for the great video! does this methodology considered to be a liner regression model or time series?
They are all time series. This model uses linear regression for trend and adjusts the forecast values for seasonality.
Bravo Monsieur,
Thank you for your explications.
How can I forecast with sinusoidal forecasting. For example if we have 120 in January, 150 in Feb, 180 in March, ... 500 in July, 600 in Aug, 500 in Sep, 400 in Oct, 350 in Nov, 250 in December, 180 in January next year, 250 in Feb next and so on for the next Month usually have Demand like sinusoidal forcast? Can u let me know? Thanks
That is possible, you need to set up a sinusodial function with parameters and optimize the parameters to fit the line using Excel Solver.
this should be on top
perfect video! thank you very much for this!
This is a hidden treasure. I am so glad I found this channel. Could you possibly explain if the seasonality index we have used so far is what we call exponential smoothing ?/
Thanks. They are quite different. I have a video on exponential smoothing.
I hope that you will keep doing forecast for different kind of business sales. That would be great
Great 👍🏻 explained well
Thank you so much! I've learned a lot from this video.
subscribed after watching this..
Thank you, so much for this insight.
This is exactly what I was looking for!! Super helpful for my upcoming interview.
Awesome!! 👍🏼
Great video. Thanks so much! :)
Amazing! Thank you! I agree with FSK... you made this so easy!
Great example my friend. Very useful!
My friend, love your video. In this case im trying to get a forecast for 2022. It seems like that the rule aplies to all the cells, but just the first till january to december are my data por 2022?
sindex! Heck yeah. Great video.
Great video!
Love your video so muchhhh!
Thank you!
What a godly video *praise*
Very well done!
Great work
Tesekkur ederiz.
Teşekkürler birader!
Nice video Mr. Canbolat.
This was extremely helpful, THANKYOU!
This was so helpful. Thanks
Thank you very much Dr
Thanks a lot man, amazing tutorial!!!! So happy to find this :) just simply brilliant
Mustafa Hocam, adamsın!
Thank you for this very detailed review of forecasting! Amazing!!!! :)
Thank you so much for this
GREAT JOB - THANKS :)
Thank you so much 🙏🏻
dude, it is a amazing video , very helpful. thank you a lot
Thanks, your video helps me a lot. If you can add some equations attached in the sheet, that‘s will much better. But, anyway, it is an amazing video!
Great tutorial.
very nice. plz discuss ARIMA and Seasonal arima
It's really going to help me in my professional career. Can you please make a video over OTB planning.?