You’ll Regret Missing This…
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 พ.ค. 2024
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In this video, we delve into the recent increase in initial jobless claims and the drop in the economic surprise index, leading to recession fears and market volatility since March 2024. Contrary to popular belief, the recent S&P 500 correction was due to rising interest rates, not recession concerns. We discuss how shifts in interest rate expectations impacted the market and highlight the significance of technical indicators and the OEX open interest ratio.
DISCLAIMER: This video is for entertainment purposes only. We are not financial advisers, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky; best of luck!
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You can’t really say it, “bounced nicely off the channel”, when the channel didn’t even exist, until it actually bounced off that level.
The title states that smart money is selling, and the video concludes smart money is buying. Cant go wrong on this one. Good call.
3:02 "The stock market bounced quite nicely off this price channel..." _that I just drew because of that same bounce._ Your lines have verified themselves 👍
I've been following him for months now and ngl he's had that line for a long time, which I didn't super agree with at the time but clearly worked so I'm impressed
Most important trend line is top of SP in 2008, connected to topIn 2021. And we just got to the line this week. Vix is low and the market has gone up on the lightest volume. Looks like your gonna get stuck holding the “investment bag”
Reality, as much as I agree with your thesis, just likely won’t matter until this election is over. Unemployment could spike and we’ll still grind higher. Yellen and Powell etc will just keep sloshing in liquidity
Why does the election have this hold on the market? Would love your thoughts!
Absolutely, the Fed wants Biden or similar who are only puppets of corps and MIC
Eh not sure man last year everyone said recession and it didn’t happen. This year everyone says elections so we’re in the clear… likely recession will happen
They can’t if they have to pay bonds at 6% bro🤦🏼♂️ reason we had 4 tril pumped in was Fed rates were at .25% lmao
My Lord, I'm actually not making $$$ this year; everything is fairly valued or overpriced and nothing freakin' moves. Mediocre earnings? Drops .00001%. Horrible earnings? Media spins it and it drops 1%. It's getting ridiculous. Now we have MORE bullish signs? We're already priced in the second coming of Jesus. This is getting insane. Going into bonds and CDs
Agree, the recent mini shakeout did not provide sufficient resolution to overbought conditions. I think the next time we get a greater than 5pct correction, a major top will be in. Bad news on Main Street will likely soon mean bad news on Wall Street.
Most unemployed people don't file for unemployment, and the number who don't file has been increasing. It's still an ok indicator of actual underlying unemployment, but changes to filings due to changes in policy can give false signals. This has happened multiple times in the past few years due to covid policies (and unwinding covid policies) that streamline the process or change unemployment benefits (which happen at the state level).
Under ordinary circumstances your analysis is valid. Ordinary circumstances don't exist today, however. There is ZERO risk premium built into the market despite the levels of geopolitical risk being off the scale at the moment. That risk could be priced into the stock market overnight. I would like to point out that gold has hit a number of all-time highs in the last few months (and is about to again) AND silver just hit an 11-year high and had a major breakout (these are risk barometers and they are shouting danger).
There are some very long term, multi decade year trend lines on the Dow and S&P that the market is at or very near, forming significant negative divergences on momentum indicators. Historically, that is the precursor to big downturns, although they can take weeks or even months to play out.
Digital Video communications < Digital>....Monetary System (in progress)
Phantom Ripple effect (In progress)...
😚
Market moving higher due to capital inflows.
Thanks
September to remember?
I got confused on that SP500 chart. Dates were shifted a little bit.
There are no interest rate cuts this year, and probably not next year either......get used to it people
Nice🎉
Still one of the best analysis over so many others..
Zimbabwe stock market up 1000% or so commensurate with currency debasement
Thank you for another great lesson!
Amazing analysis! Thank you
The current stock market situation has similarities to August 2007. The market began to fall apart in the summer of 2007. Bernanke came in and "saved it" with liquidity injections (just like with Powell today) and then some interest rate cuts (inflation was not the issue back then that it is today). The FED managed to juice the market higher until it peaked in October. It was then straight downhill until early 2009. The market completely imploded in the fall of 2008. The lesson here is that the FED can postpone a stock market collapse, but can't stop it, and that postponement makes the final collapse even worse.
Where was there a move down in interest rates ?
I think the drop is the future prediction. Unless that graph includes Switzerland.
I can connect two dots together as well.
hold till the cut rates than sell
Sep24
I have seen in 2023 you have price target for 3500 and short bias on SPX, now in 2024 near ATH, you have long bias, I agree it will go higher in next few months, but please do caution your followers when to sell, otherwise they will keep doing dollar cost avg when market starts going down
So we need to buy sir
bullish for stocks, especially the SPX... just buy and get rich... stop being a permabear $$$
🔥👍
interesting vid
Infaltionary Depression. Inflation will march forward as the economy crumbles. The stock market will go higher with inflation. I see all that now.
Nope,no regrets
😂 the interest rates have not fallen yet!
It's all gunna crash like a mofo
Hahaha blind side inbound
The problem is when
Only 👽 invasion can crash this market😂
In the meantime.... the market is at all time high.... so it doesnt matter.
😂 People like you make me so much money. Thanks!
ALL THIS IS MOOT during an election year.
Penny stock insiders that bought the dip are getting a golden opportunity
Who doesn’t think technicals are a useful tool 😂😂😂
Well I mean the technicals on GME were ripe 😂
It'll be "musical chairs"........
Buying PayPal, Canada Goose and Starbucks ⬆️
Tech stocks about to go vertical. Wouldn’t sell now
Hope so. A blow off top would lead to a crush and reset valuations.
1929 here we come
Bad news equal good news has been the case for almost 2 years. When that changes, it will be bad
When you find pessimist in TH-cam it's time to invest..