This Only Happens Before Major Economic Downturns…
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 18 พ.ค. 2024
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In this video, we delve into the recent increase in initial jobless claims and the drop in the economic surprise index, leading to recession fears and market volatility since March 2024. Contrary to popular belief, the recent S&P 500 correction was due to rising interest rates, not recession concerns. We discuss how shifts in interest rate expectations impacted the market and highlight the significance of technical indicators and the OEX open interest ratio.
DISCLAIMER: This video is for entertainment purposes only. We are not financial advisers, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky; best of luck!
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it will be much worse than 2007. consider the debt of the consumer & the savings rate, that's just two things, many more yet to come
Probably not worse. The Fed is much more aggressive in bailing out banks these days. 3200 SP500 is my target.
Gold is a safe haven asset. It's not a way to invest, it's a way to preserve wealth. That's what is happening. People are hedging against a potential recession.
Consider this as well, Buffett has almost $200 billion in cash. Why, he says he doesn't see anything out there worth investing in.
Best of luck for eveybody! 😊❤
Hard to see how we could possibly be heading into economic prosperity. Somebody enlighten me.
I see trade wars increasing. Massive piles of public and private debt. Commercial real estate weakness leading to bank failures. Inflation picking up again. Bond market has been trashed and could continue to falter for decades. Massive deficit spending with lower and lower impact on GDP.
The only reason the stock market is doing OK is because people need to shield their money from inflation so they're dumping it in either stocks or bonds, and bonds are a really bad choice right now.
Still, there are opportunities to make a lot of money out there. Always.
Do a chart of China purchase of gold in the past 6 months and see if there is a correlation.
Exactly. The East controls the price now
There’s still lots of skepticism in this market I don’t think we’re in the euphoria phase yet
The bank crisis isn't over yet, and experienced individuals know credit crises don't end quickly. Some find it amusing that some think it's resolved, but in reality, we're headed for a major economic downturn due to this credit contraction.
I don't think a low close in the Dow to Gold ratio is a good indicator of recessions - there were many instances of that in the long bull market from '80 - '00. Had you sold stocks in that period in anticipation of a recession, you'd be materially worse off. Best practice is to own some stocks, some gold, and if you need to liquidate a position in an emergency, you shouldn't need to sell at a loss. Zoom out, my friends. I'd add that in the examples you gave of the S&P P/E ratio being high, it didn't indicate the economy was doing well, instead that investor sentiment was euphoric and people were willing to pay over the odds for stocks. Hence the subsequent declines in valuations.
Wonderful presentation as always. The charts are like eye candy - what software do you use to make them?
This analysis is quite compelling, though it would be better if you elaborate a bit more because the DJI does not have sufficient representation of the AI-related stocks that have been providing buoyancy for the S&P 500.
Its the roaring 20s 2.0… we havent peaked yet. It will end up being a lot higher than ud think. Volatility galore. Followed by a collapse of epic proportions
I would avoid the index funds, mutual funds, or specific stocks for the time being. The 5% fixed incomes are the safest bet for now. Save your cash for when the market actually shows sign of recovery
Markets are going to rip higher and higher until it doesn't. Just hit the buy button.
100% true
What can you buy with gold besides other currencies?
this video is simply excellent!!!
I have us reversing from here . Hope you get some.
What time period is long therm / short therm in stock market?
That was brilliant
The opportunity cost of holding Gold is too high.
We all know this is the FOMO top move, play the fire cautiously!
Always the most logical assessment of markets. Great job GOT!
It's not that Gold is going up, it's that the fiat dollar is going down. And in spite of all the shenanigans that scam street is engaging in by manipulating the Magnificent 7, the RSP and QQQE are telling you the story as is gold and silver.
I agree
With the way the market is moving, I must say we are up for interesting times.
2000 = internet bubble, 2024 = IA bubble.
great video - well spotted
Yellen: there will be no new crisis in our Lifetime's...
Hi, is there a ticker for GOLD?
It is the year by year impact and useless for the forecast. Even it has impacts, the economy will deteriorate 1-2 years later
Flight to safety = US Treasuries
The Federal Reserve is trying to slow the economy. Powell predicted this would likely result in some pain.
Hope for a cleanup in US markets, to get some good buy oportunities
Should we get out of the stock market?
Thanks for the info, but just wondering, why are you always bearish? What are your personal returns YTD?
We just happen to expect that a recession is on the horizon. We also happen to expect it may be quite severe. We're definitely not always this pessimistic! We show our track record at gameoftrades.net.
This is the main reason you shouldn't predict in every market. Always follow price action. Everytime. I still watch you bro. For education purpose but when it comes to trading it's a bit nah since 2022 bro. I know it's late to call bullish now. You might be right this time but bro 2022 to 2024 you miss out a lot of good opportunity and gains.
@@GameofTradesFair enough, now, bases on your data and models, when do you forecast the onset of the next recession and the impact on the market?. We all understand nobody has got a crystal ball.
My best guess today is September of this year. But we've pushed our timeline out already a couple of times.
I didn't find that particularly bearish, especially when compared to some of the doomsayers out there.
At one point about a month ago, many TH-camrs essentially said 'ignore TA, the FA here is too strong'. What just played out was forecast by sharp TA. Moral: include savvy awareness of both, if you're trading. If your BTC time horizon is years, then FA alone is enough. Much appreciation for the channel and your work...managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Francine Duguay, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Looks like a head and shoulders forming on that P/E ratio chart.
I loaded up on 23.5lbs of gold. All in graded gold coins.
Still need at least 6-12 months for the top.
Brics-countries have bought gold like no tomorrow because their currency is going to be gold-backed
What’s everyone’s estimate to when this will happen ?😊
I would seriously doubt a recession occurs at least until after the election.
As early as this September
Just keep an eye on unemployment numbers. Initial claims and continuing claims are weekly data points that will start to show an upwards divergence from their averages before the actual unemployment % number starts to go up.
Also keep an eye on things like $HYG for bearish divergences plus $VIX on the longer term chart for higher peaks and higher valleys.
VIX just set a low we haven't seen since 2019 to finish this last week. We have a some time to go with stocks continuing up yet.
Eventually, the high interest rates will come home to roost, and negative economic data will start to come in. When that moment comes, there will be a sell off in stocks and U.S. treasuries will get bid, their yields will start to come down.
At first, it will be a trickle, but eventually it becomes a flood in that direction. So, you'll have adequate time to recognize we're still near a top and it's time to start positioning for a bigger down move.
Between July and October 2024.
Gold futures are at ath right now.
Weakening economy? Tell us something we don't know
Why do you ask us? You are supposed to be the expert!
📈06:46 If the Divergence widens, it could lead to a fantastic selling opportunity for stock market investors, but if the ratio climbs back up, it could signal a period of economic strength.
As he’s showing these charts he missing the chart analysis I can clearly see 2 beaming head and shoulder patterns on these charts
It's all gunna crash like a mofo now...
Has anyone started combining these market ratios with crypto data? Ive always felt like i could see the future of stocks by watching btc. I rarely pay attention to the stock market but I keep my eye on bitcoin all the time and I always find myself saying well this is different right before something big happens in the stock market. I give Bitcoin credit for the soft Landing. Not the Federal Reserve. People buying into cryptocurrency only takes it out of circulation. A trillion retail dollars sitting idle has to be a significant impact. One the people in power still can't see yet. And thank God its to late now lol. It's check mate and nobody even knows it yet. Wild time to be alive my friend. Hold my beer.
Head and shoulders pattern= Recession!!!!
It's entirely possible the because of videos and theories like these that causes people to buy gold.
Has anyone started combining these market ratios with crypto data? Ive always felt like i could see the future of stocks by watching btc. I rarely pay attention to the stock market but I keep my eye on bitcoin whie actively trading all the time and I always find myself saying well this is different right before something big happens in the stock market. I give Bitcoin credit for the soft Landing. Not the Federal Reserve....I've engaged in active trading and managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 24Bitcoin....At the heart of this evolution is Francine Duguay, whose deep understanding of both cryptocurrency and traditional trading has been instrumental. Her holistic approach to investment and commitment to staying abreast of market trends make her an invaluable ally in navigating this new era in cryptocurrency investment.
As always buy the deep. Nothing new.
New Zealand is already reported as being on a technical recession and unemployment is increasing
Retail buying AI stocks , smart money buying gold … smh
second
bitcoin is the safe haven.
You could hold a hundred thousand dollars in stock a this could not buy you five thousand dollars in groceries