Real Estate Crash Could Be Worse Than 2008 Great Financial Crisis | Anthony Dilweg
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 11 มิ.ย. 2024
- Anthony Dilweg, veteran real estate investor and Founder & CEO and of Dilweg, joins Forward Guidance to share shocking information from the world of commercial real estate (CRE) in general and office in particular. Dilweg, whose firm owns over 5.5 million square feet of real estate, mostly located in the Southeast United States, argues the challenges CRE will contend with may be greater than those faced during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC). Dilweg’s base case is that office as an asset class is structurally broken as the trends of remote and hybrid work are here to stay. He expects over a billion square footage of U.S. office space will be rendered obsolete in the coming years. With all these challenges notwithstanding, Dilweg is optimistic that there will be great investment opportunities for well capitalized players who can take advantage of market distress. Filmed on November 29, 2023.
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About Dilweg: www.dilweg.com/
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:19 Dilweg's Background in Football and Real Estate
04:54 Dilweg's Start In Real Estate: "Ready, Fire, Aim"
09:34 Office Is The Most Capital-Intensive Sector Of Real Estate
14:03 Interest Rate Surge Has Been A "Jolt To The System"
21:11 Office Is Structurally Broken Right Now
34:54 It's A Lot Worse Than The Headlines
43:52 Lease Term: Comparison To "Duration" In Bond World
44:55 Interest Rate Hedging In The Real Estate Business (Public REITs and Private Investors)
45:38 Are Office Rents Going Down?
51:09 Dilweg's Forward Outlook On Returns
53:56 A Lot Of Properties Will Go Back To Banks
01:09:38 Dilweg's Outlook on Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Other Than Offices
01:15:29 The Rise Of Experiential Hospitality
01:18:28 WeWork & Adam Neumann
01:23:31 Dilweg's View on Office Markets In Big U.S. Metropolitan Cities
01:29:54 The Work-From-Home Debate
01:46:46 The Rise of Private Credit - บันเทิง
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I remember in 2007 when I was working in real estate seeing people buy homes new from builders with the intention of selling before close of escrow to a new buyer for profit. The crash was so brutal and fast that I remember seeing a lot of these units foreclosed on with the builder plastic still on the carpet.
Most people find it difficult to handle a fall since they are used to bull markets, but if you know where to look and how to maneuver, you can make a size-able profit. Depending on how you intend to enter and exit, yes.
Given that we are not used to such volatile markets, the fact that the US stock market has been on its longest bull run in history helps to explain the widespread fear and enthusiasm. There are chances if you know where to look, as you noted when I earned more than $780k in the prior ten months. I hired a portfolio advisor because I knew I would need a solid plan to get through these difficult times.
My portfolio has been in the gutter for the entire year, so I started researching new ways to profit in the market, but everything I tried just seemed to miss the mark. Please let us know the name of your financial advisor.
It was run by Natalie Lynn Fisk, who I learned about and got in touch with thanks to a CNBC interview. Since then, it has served as the point of entry and departure for the games we have emphasized. A search on the internet can be done if tracking is necessary.
I just copied and pasted Natalie’s whole name into my browser, and her website appeared right away. You've saved me several hours of arduous research, therefore I appreciate it.
Great conversation. It seemed he was willing to just talk about whatever and give his honest opinion. It would be great to have him on again, or more people like him. I like a good analyst interview, but actually talking to someone who is trying to business is the best way to gather info.
jack farley is the greatest journalist of his generation
The house market gave me quite a scare recently. A home is just not the best investment right now. Recently had to sell one of my homes in California, just want to invest about $400,000 of it in stocks since I've heard that even in challenging times, investors may turn a profit. Any excellent ideas for stocks?
One can actually make killer riches faster with the right stock picks. Highly recommend consulting with an expert first; as in hedge funds or financial managers. I personally prefer the latter.
Agreed, instead of panic or following a hearsay, I simply adopted the service of an advisor early 2020 amid covid-outbreak, and so far, I've attained my most measurable financial milestone of $850k after subsequent investments. Maybe thats what you also need
@josephbush Nice! once you hit a big milestone, the next comes easier.. who is your advisr please, if you dont mind me asking?
Curiously inputted her full name on my computer and searched online, found her site ranked top, very professional.. thanks for putting this out, it has rekindled the fire to my goal
No one wants to go to the office. The commute alone isn’t worth it. You can do everything you need at home
Not only that you might be able to get more work done at home
This guest was awesome great job Jack!!!
Loved the convo. Really interesting when someone in a specific market takes a deep dive into how they operate their business
Fantastic interviewing with Fantastic guest. Love the in-the-trenches interview. Can you get more real estate deal makers like Airbnb or multi-family. Keep up the good work. 5 stars
Great guest and convo. Some really interesting insights and perspectives here.
Great conversation
This was a great watch!
Very insightful!
Awesome interview.
Thank you, brilliant!!
Very interesting!!
Wait till every knowledge worker has an AI assistant to collaborate with all day.
The management concern over people working a full day will evaporate, because the records will be pretty complete.
And the productivity will soar anyway.
Many think the number of employees will shrink but the number of companies will actually go up, as everything that needs doing to start and operate a company gets automated.
Good interview.
Love the guest and loved the boots on the ground insight by Dilweg.
Have not seen anyone say "you know" so many times
And?
Fantastic... I work in the special assets sector and hearing the borrower perspective is very enlightening.
Wow, take a shot every time a new three letter acronym is mentioned...jk very interesting and insightful guest.
I am so happy i dont have an HR person or a boss that is acting like my high school guidance counselor while reffering to some co-workers as "team" . Unfortunately i do have to go to the work , 2000 hrs a year , including throughout the pandemic "essential worker" the key has been not having a far commute
I'm at a large Fortune 500 and we are at 80% with most all of the workforce being required to be onsite. But admittedly we are probably an exception.
How many guest on this show predicted a crash in 23
The money supply will take years to unwind many no huge crash but sideways for years with small pullbacks
Better tb early than Late and lost… Checkout your balance sheet genius
I remember Dilweg from Tecmo Super Bowl
I often ponder whether individuals who weathered the 2008 market crash had a relatively easier time coping, considering the distressing conditions prevailing in today's markets. This November alone, my portfolio has incurred a staggering loss exceeding $27,000, plunging my profits into a downward spiral. The unsettling reality is that this tumultuous market environment is threatening the prospects of a secure retirement. It's disheartening to witness my reserves stagnate without any signs of growth.
Even in this whirlwind, there are chances to be had, thus an increase in volatility is not always a bad thing. You have an opportunity to rebalance thanks to volatility. In order to help you diversify your portfolio, you must hire a financial counselor or broker.
I aim to engage in a long-term investment strategy utilizing well-diversified funds. How can I connect with this Certified Financial Planner (CFP) you've mentioned?
Researched her accreditation. She seems very proficient, I wrote her detailing my Fin-market goals and scheduled a call.
@kelvin_benson
So long as the banks are bailed out prices can rise to the sky
During an interview, the most significant point that was highlighted is having finance experts involved in real estate businesses.
It is bringing back the 90's New Yorker brokers on an unregulated market, inflating property value and bringing together individuals with the belief there is a safe haven for assurance of future prosperity.
Strong regulation for property speculation coming your way with a developer like Anthony would properly benefit and make a profit for actually building something.
I hate the guys that brag about owing 10 properties during barbecues and carrying a ton of debt.
Great stuff Jack!
The tide is about to go way out and the number of things that will die on the beach will be shocking. Most people have no clue how bad things are about to get.
we know who's playing Santa this year
Commercial Real Estate
A ticking time bomb for regional banks in 2024 & 2025
The fact that people talk about MMT in such a fear mongering fashion is evidence of how far the movements come. Also, if Anthony actually understood MMT he'd know that these high rates are adding over $1T to deficits and end up stimulating the economy further lol😂
Exactly -- somebody ought to tell Dilweg that the record peacetime deficits that the US Federal government is running right now are what's keeping this economy out of recession. Not sure how long they're going to run like this, but higher interest rates are adding a lot of new money into the private sector via the interest income channel ...
The pain was in residential RE in 2008, not commercial. Also, banks weren’t willing to work with homeowners then, not like today.
Duh
False. You clearly werent in the CRE game
@@jwheatly I owned 3 homes and 2 apartments buildings. Sit down.
@@FSharp357that’s it? Shocking that a tiny operator wouldnt have a pulse on the commercial sector
@@jwheatly I was 34 years old. I fed my family and hustled while you still lived in your mom’s basement. Obviously you don’t know or can’t handle winners.
Duke football hall of fame!
What are the best strategies to protect my portfolio from any possible economic crisis? I've heard that it may devastate the financial market, so I'm concerned about my $200k stock portfolio.
Amidst a crisis, investors need to understand where and how to allocate funds to hedge against downturns and still make profits. if you can't navigate the market you should consult with an expert advisor
The US-Stock Market had been on it’s longest bull-run in history, so the mass hysteria and panic is relatable considering we’re not accustomed to such troubled markets, but there are avenues lurking around if you know where to look I’ve netted over $450k in the past 10months.
I need a guide so i can salvage my port-folio due to the massive dips and come up with better strategies. How can one reach this advisor?
I started out with an FA named *Kaitlin Rose Sternberg* Her honest approach gives me complete ownership and control over my position, and her rates are incredibly affordable given my ROI.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
Really interesting insights. I just wish he could finish a sentence.
I’ll take my long term 8% return from index funds rather than deal with all this b.s.
Look at you - the Entrepreneur
thanks Rasputin
Lol
lolol I always try to be constructive, but thats funny and now I can't unsee it.
Lol you really don't think outside of your tax bracket if you think most working people don't have the option to work from home. CRE just has flaky tenants right now.
He's in the office sector. If you are not a gov employee, in a mom and pop, blue collar, or customer facing business then people aren't coming to the office on average more than 4 days a week max. Facts.
@@joythought you just listed the biggest employers in the country bruh. Point proven. Only a small number of people work from home.
Take out Mag 7 and the stockmarket is actually down.
Not really
That could be bullish looking forward as most is fairly priced or possibly undervalued.
Check out RSP. It’s not.
FOMO being in the office?
I'm home when my son gets back from school. What do you actually think you are going to offer me reatlor man, that exceeds this?
We are employees. Pay me a share of the profits if you want me to love "the culture".
As long as you take your share of the losses
A bit too many “ you know” to focus on.
1:45:25
Did he just mutter that Modern Monetary Theory leads to "socialism"??
It does tho
@@triswilsful In what system did MMT lead to Socialism??
When did Marx EVER talk about MMT being socialist??
Nothing will happen.
It seems to me that you Jack do need to sit down face to face with your people at least some time, or rather face time can not be replaced, or not..can it be?
Putting well-earned money into the stock market can be over emphasized for first-time investors, unlike a bank where interest is sure thing! Well, basically times are uncertain, the market is out of control, and banks are gradually failing. I am working on a ballpark estimate of $5M for retirement, and I have a good 6-figure loaded up for this, could there be any opportunity for a boomer like me? I'm nearly 60.
Sincerely it's best to seek an advisor right now, unless you're canny yourself. As a business owner in both the service industry and eBay reseller of all product categories, I can tell you we’re in a deep recession and everyone is running out of money
Very true, people downplay advisors role, until burnt by their mistakes. I remember just after my layoff early 2020 amidst covid outbreak, I needed to stay afloat, hence researched for license advisors. Thankfully, I came across someone of practical knowledge, and decades of experience, my stagnant reserve of $325K has yielded nearly $1m after subsequent investments so far.
That's fascinating. How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?
My Financial adviser is ‘’TERESA LYNN CARMI’’ she’s highly qualified and experienced in the financial market. She has extensive knowledge of portfolio diversity and is considered an expert in the field. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Thank you! I just looked up Teresa lynn carmi online and researched her accreditations. She seems very proficient, I've scheduled a call with her.
1:27:45 Basically the more left the city the more screwed it is. Pretty self explanatory...
In these uncertain times, it's more important than ever to have a solid understanding of how to manage your finances, invest wisely and navigate economic downturns. But my primary concern is how to grow my reserve of $240k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains, sure I'm all in on the long term game, but with my savings are lying waste to inflation and my portfolio losing gains everyday, I need a remedy.
you are completely right, Advisors have information and paths that are not disclosed to the public.. I profited £560k in 2022 under the tutelage of my Fiduciary-counselor. Am I selling? Absolutely not.. I am going to sit back and observe how this all plays out.
That's impressive! I could really use the expertise of this manager for my dwindling portfolio. Who’s the professional guiding you?
I checked Jenny Pamogas Canaya up out of curiosity and i must say i am impressed by her Credentials. i emailed her already, waiting on her response.
this. guy. is. awesome