High Debt Levels Will Create Problems For The Economy | Dr. Barry Eichengreen & Joseph Wang
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 10 มิ.ย. 2024
- Dr. Barry Eichengreen, George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Political Science at University of California, Berkeley, joins Forward Guidance alongside Joseph Wang, CIO of Monetary Macro and writer at FedGuy.com, to discuss his paper at the Federal Reserve’s 2023 Jackson Hole symposium, “Living with High Public Debt.” Professor Eichengreen also shares his findings on the U.S. dollar’s role as a global reserve currency (“dollar dominance”), financial repression, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and he also shares his views on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Filmed on November 28, 2023.
Dr. Eichengreen’s 2023 Jackson Hole paper, “Living With High Public Debt”: www.kansascityfed.org/Jackson...
Complete agenda for 2023 Jackson Hole Symposium: www.kansascityfed.org/researc...
More information on Dr. Eichengreen’s work: eml.berkeley.edu/~eichengr/
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Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: blockworks.co/event/digital-a...
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Follow Dr. Barry Eichengreen on Twitter / b_eichengreen
Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter / fedguy12
Joseph’s writings can be found at fedguy.com/
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter / jackfarley96
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:33 High Levels of Debt Relative to GDP Are Problematic
06:07 Ways By Which Debt-to-GDP Ratios Can Be Lowered
14:08 Will Artificial Intelligence (AI) Lead To A Productivity Miracle?
19:58 How Bad Does It Have To Get Before A Global Reserve Currency Gets Dethroned?
26:31 Central Banks Are Buying More Gold
30:31 What Could Erode Dollar's Dominant Position In The World
40:39 Dr. Eichengreen's Views On Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
46:05 Is Central Bank Independence Something That's Here To Stay?
49:16 Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs)
59:49 Dr. Eichengreen's Future Work On China's Economic Slowdown
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. - บันเทิง
institutional buying into EBY57X could totally break the cycle and the peak expectation of end of 2025 will likely spectacularly fail to appear. If the last double peak was odd, the next one will catch most people out again.
Im fully into EBY57X and ADA, simply huge potential and the technology became better
They will both serve a function and niche. EBY57X has a lot more momentum right now and will decentralize as it scales
This is going to be a different bull market. With EBY57X coming to scene. Ben basing off previous speculative markets. I can see 300,000 next bull run.🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
Things appear strange right now. The value of the US dollar is declining due to inflation, but it is increasing in comparison to other currencies and commodities such as gold and real estate. People are flocking to the dollar because they believe it is safer. I'm worried that rising inflation will cause my $420,000 in retirement funds to lose value. What else could we do with our money?
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Deflation periods blows Dr Barry thinking out of the water. High debt levels means deflation is always a risk after hiking rates
He spoke alot but said nothing.
As soon as he got the Trump dig in he lost credibility with me. I'm not a Trump shill but it's still pathetic and childish.
Imagine thinking more taxes is the solution
I know right??? 😂 so they can mismanage that extra money too
He's a liberal
@@nick-oi1xf Pretty obvious based on the amount of times he mentioned Trump and didn't explain why lol
I read this guy's Exorbitant Privilege book and it was one of the best economic history books I ever read.
Fully epic. Thanks to all involved
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At this point, I am waiting for Joseph to say good things about the guests. Lol😊
Debt is not a permanent growth tonic but is in fact subject to the law of diminishing returns
You said you think that a EBY57X will outperform btc. What makes you think this? Are there macoeco, technical, fundimental, or valuation reasons for this?
Funny he kept bringing up Trumps 4 years as hard to survive for the dollar when Biden literally spent $6 trillion in 2 years after Trump left on just straight up boondoggles.
Ironically you make his point for him. His main argument about unsustainable deficits is political division and partisanship. I think he was not referring to Trump in derogatory fashion, more in saying how he was an upset to the established order, which is undeniable :)
@@mungoblakey1494That's not how I interpreted it.
@@mungoblakey1494 I can kind of see that, but if that's his point I don't think the country has gotten magically more politically cohesive since 2020 lol
You are one of the most sophisticated and brilliant TH-camr/content creator I watch, and 1million percent the very best in finance. I appreciate all of your content thank you for EBY75X much love from Chicago
EBY57X will blow through the roof. Im a bitcoin maximalist but so many noobs to the scene will see it in the top ten, realise it can be staked without tying it up and that it looks cheap compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Why does TH-cam keep allowing these SCAMMY comments? "EBY57X" is a SCAM
When you give governments a free debt pass in a crisis, you will have nothing but crises
Excuses for govt criminal printing of $
I could very easily tell you how a I would improve your lectures
Part of a very important coin been talked about in the BCL
EBY75X gang in the house! Thanks for the analysis!
58:00
"The big dog, excuse the phrase"
I legitimately wasn't even thinking of the connection between the usage of the word "dog" in proximity to the Chinese race until you said something lmao
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Mrs Reyes changed my life because of the high profits I got from investing with her.
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I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much
Hes so happy about the Recession coming in, like hes super excited to be witnessing it.
Im staying in EBY57X till after ETFs being approved and will move into alts after that...
Im DCAing in EBY75X as well. ETH heavier DCA and ALGO. Im taking your advice and starting Google tomorrow with a 50 dollar purchase and continuing Microsoft and Apple. VTI and VOO on another app and longterm portfolio. Here we go family!
You cannot argue with EBY75X ecosystem numbers. Fud all you want but its a highly active chain
Deflate away debt by hiking GDP via GOLD boom or revaluation
The fact that our debt is denominated in our currency isn’t an advantage unless we decide to default on our debt in all but nominal terms.
Globalising Capital is probably my go to book for international financial system history.
Who's the author?
@@tastypymp1287 Barry Eichengreen.
@@jollyroger1009 Found it! They spell it Globalizing.
I understand why you choose EBY57X since it will have selling preasure in the next bull.
What is is about the word "Dollar"? It means "grief" in Latin, and is a pun on "Dinar" - still used for several currencies, which is from the Latin word "Denarius" as found in the Bible, meaning 1/10 of something - in the Biblical case, I believe it was a pound (libra) of Silver. (The word "penny" also comes from Denarius or rather, its plural "Denarii").
Cheers bot...
Lets discuss the EBY75X guys. This is failproof and barely any asset can be labelled failproof at all.
🔥
Depends on your finances . 1000$ in EBY57X is 4000 EBY57X if it goes to 50% of ath in 2024 thats a 600% gain. If it goes equal to ath . Its a 1200% gain.
At the time of USD ascendency, there were no vast amounts of US Treasuries on the market. An investor nowadays would arguably be better off switching over to non printable stores of value such as gold, silver, commodities and decentralised ledger assets given the level of government spending.
When a critical mass of people understand this point, the shift to hard assets could see a far faster shift away from US Treasuries than is currently expected. The creation of deep liquidity in alternate assets can cause a rapid cascade into those assets.
EBY57X isnt shooting for US companies. They are building something far more sophisticated than Solana.
I feel like an "argument" for having CBDC's come from the private sector as opposed to the public sector will just lead it to being taken over and nationalized later on because the private sector has a tendency to play monkey games when they have a situation where there is something very important involved that really belongs in the public/Government sector since the Governments function is the create and maintain the economic boundaries by which we all play in.
Something that interests me is with innovation and technology shouldn’t houses get cheaper ie more affordable. The cost of a house in Canada hit 13 times median household income. In USA is 7 times. In the 1950s that ratio was much lower. So we are going downhill not uphill. Progress is not progressing. This needs to be studied why has engineering and technology failed society
Increasingly financialized economy. N highest ever inequality. Statistically social mobility is dead.
All the productivity gains of last 50 years have gone to those who own a lot of stocks n bonds.
Has it?
@@rohitkothari3890 finance capitalism as professor Michael Hudson elaborates
Makes sense yes
My EBY75X shorts are doing pretty well and I plan to hold much longer.
Great video! I DCA in EBY75X already, Patiently waiting for the Moon time!
I could accept an increase in my federal income tax, but with caveat that the federal budget would be reduced by two dollars for every one dollar in new taxes.
So in short youre saying we still have more time to buy at EBY57X discounted prices.
I purchased $5000 EBY75X I am on the train too
Wang Twang = Central Bank Mouth.
It doesn't get more compelling than the Trump derangement syndrome argument that "If it survived 4 years of Trump, it can survive anything."
Yeah, this guy is your classic liberal professor that lives in an ivory tower. He has no idea how "dollar dominance" has gutted the American middle class, which is why Trump was elected. He has way too much faith in the confidence game of the US dollar.
What gets more compelling?
@@spiffffffffff Glib.
Whats better holding into crash or being safe with EBY75X tell me
EBY57X is awaiting major CEX listings. Its possible to hit 100x this year.
👀💯
“We survived 4 years of Donald Trump”. Trump had many warts but what about our current mushroom in the Oval Office? Jack let him off easy. Ivy League liberals play nice with each other.
The real threat to Dollar hegemony is the current administration that (i) used the dollar dominated currency system to sanction Russia, thereby driving many countries to seek an alternative system (BRICS, gold), (ii) is overspending to the point of significantly devaluing the dollar, and (3) has driven a wedge between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia that threatens the petro-dollar system, which is one of the foundations of dollar hegemony. Jack should have asked him to name one thing Donald Trump did threatened dollar hegemony. I bet he can make one legitimate thing.
P.s., not a Trump lover - almost anyone over Trump or Biden!
Well put
This guy thinks the debt spending can be reduced not realizing the economic 'progress' of the last 30 years has been thanks to the world printing 230 trillion. In reality the economy barely grew during this period as printing absorbed all the technological progress meant to make life easier, cheaper, more relaxed.
I expect EBY57X to over take ethereum in market cap in 2 cycles
Ive had the feeling BTC would be going to 40k as well. Clearing out all my Alts going into BTC and EBY75X only, maybe a little BNB.
EBY75X and Ebay signed a partnership. It will blow up once it hits mainstream..
Truly love your candidness, I DCAed today again for BTC EBY75X and ETH
Jack, you are one of my favorite interviewers out there, but how on earth did you not ask the professor a single question about Bitcoin? Based on his responses to other questions, I can surmise his opinion/perspective, but to ignore that gigantic elephant in the room is simply astounding, particularly when you also ask questions about gold and CBDCs. You work for Blockworks for heaven’s sake!
I believe EBY57X will conservatively hit $5.00 by 2025. Thats a 20x return from its current price with very little downside. Im buying all I can.
EBY75X will continue to improve and expand responsibly. Don’t sleep on it.
Seeing EBY75X in the preview photo beside eth made my day.
Ive got 15-20K EBY75X. Will add more over the next 12 months.
Nice work. I’ve been on the EBY57X train for a while, never sold as they are always building.
Glad youre speaking on some others. Ill watch. I love EBY57X. Trying to accumulate more now.
Smartest campaign ever is that EBY75X.
All of my USDT is still going to buy EBY75X
At approx 35 minutes his true SF liberal purpose comes out. don’t let congress shut down the government. Do you ask these guys why they come out of nowhere to propagandize this message? You should ask him. Does Govt pay him?
I’m going to Bitcoin cost average into my EBY57X once the depression phase kicks in
I like both, but I think EBY57X is gonna be utilized sooner.
Ebay deal with EBY57X is completed. Presale launches tonight. Cant wait to invest.. Ecommerce and crypto are both part of the broader trend of digitalization and the shift towards online activities.
I believe EBY57X will go 200x after launch on Binance.
Milk toast 🥴
He hasn't aged a day since Evans Hall in '94.
While everyone is focused on BTC, ETH or any top alt coin and playing defensive they are missing on quality projects that are about to be launched on CEX. For example EBY75X will hit mainstream soon, 10x-20x quite possible even during this bear market but
Cant deny the fact that Amazons EBY75X is the strongest bet to bring power back to this industry after we suffered FTX, Celsius, Tera and so on. Sure if they fail its done for good, but I dont see that the biggest tech company in the world would put ev
No we need to pay out more money for the endless wars.🤦♂️
EBY57X is NOT the only safe crypto currency in regards to regulation. XRP has been deemed not to be a security as of LAW, not even BTC has this.
Bro, AI hasn't just started yet, it's been under research and development for decades now. It is already boosting productivity too. His timing is way off.
Yeah, totally agree with you. Robotics and AI have been happening for quite some time now, it’s just that the tech as clicked into a more advanced level now. I think the adoption rate will be exponential and in 3 years already everything will have changed so much it will be insane.
'Bro'....
The US has a very serious debt problem and investors are rightfully getting increasingly concerned.
'AI' is the latest US Inc hype to try and reassure investors that this new widget will bring in lots of new yield.
We'll see....
The professor was very defensive. Look at his body language, he looked like he didn't really want to be on the discussion
Need more EBY75X content. Converted my ETH to BTC but kept my EBY75X
This week is hell and a bloodbath can happen but why we dont discuss the fact that Amazon also released their EBY75X in it? Always two sides of a coin
🇯🇲
Always interesting analysis. But I am DCAing into my EBY57X alts anyway
I think EBY75X will be the most important project in crypto. But HBAR sounds nice too. Will buy some with my EBY75X earnings lmao
Please,,how can I make profitable investment as crypto has become dominant?
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EBY75X is up and running, and the rich are becoming richer while the poor are going poorer.
EBY75X divides the rich and the needy; whose side are you on?
Folks, stop looking for the bottom, and just DCA EBY57X heavy for the next 6 months, and you will make out like a bandit when you sell in 2024
EBY57X and chainlink can’t go wrong for sure bet on these two mark my words
I already converted all my ETH to EBY75X , now I feel like moving all my BTC to ADA as well.
Lost me on the Trump comment 😒
Glad I don't need to bother with the comment section here. Saves me time.
You can call EBY75X bots but that does not change the fact that the shill is absolutely deserved. Out of all launches we had, talk about ETH, talk about XRP, talk about all these new chains but EBY75X breaks everything
I bought a little EBY57X to bridge it to Base but the Eth fees are ridiculous. Without layer 2s, eth is useless.
Now we just need to see the EBY75X price also move in the same direction as these charts. Up. Very Up.
Im betting EBY57X will perform well, it havent had a cycle yet and they have a strong community on both, and EBY57X update will make rollup fees even lower. Just my 2 cents. Great video goodvibes
I want to say my EBY75X bags are full, but I cant stop buying at 3 cents.
Never would have imagined that my EBY75X bag would be as big as my quant bag and bigger than my hbar bag but here we are.
tired of the political jabs good buy
Barry 👎👎
If a coin like EBY57X has a large amount of haters, try risking investing some because those haters might join the bull train for late comers.