Avalanche Forecasting in Kyrgyzstan: Conceptual Model of Avalanche Hazard

In the winter of 2021-2022 while ski guiding for 3 one week long trips in the Terskey Ala Too of the Tien Shan Range in Kyrgyzstan in Central Asia for 40 Tribes, my co guide Sam Thackery and I would create a daily avalanche forecast using avalanche, weather, and snowpack observations. We had access to daily weather forecasts but with an uber continental snowpack climate and the wind driven lake effect snow off Lake Issyk kul learning the weather patterns was engaging.
Since there is no public avalanche forecast center we would collect weather, avalanche, and snowpack data to create our daily avalanche forecast. And with an unusually touchy snowpack in the Terskey Al Too we had to relearn everything we thought we knew about snowpack and avalanches.
In this video I describe some avalanche observations we gathered, how we combined them with our snowpack observations and then entered the analog data into our field books to use the Conceptual Model of Avalanche Hazard along with the Bavarian Matrix to come up with our avalanche problems, danger ratings, and ultimately our terrain selection. On a daily basis we would brief our guests with this information. Its quite dense at times and can be a lot to process but living in the yurts for 3 weeks kept our nose to the stone so we were on top of changes.
This is the 2nd video in a series of what went into our forecast. And offers some options to help you understand how public avalanche forecasts get created.
Conceptual Model of Avalanche Hazard (CMAH)
www.avalanchere...
CMAH w/ Bavarian Matrix
arc.lib.montan...
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[@stevens6021]

This is the best publicly available, high-level treatment of CMAH I've seen. Thanks!

[@jereburrell]

Glad its helpful, this is a pretty deep topic and requires quality observations over time