The Challenges Ahead
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 14 มิ.ย. 2024
- NB. This video was created prior to some of the more recent leaks and developments although the analysis still applies.
Expectations are the Switch 2 or next Nintendo console will have some form of backward compatibility but how will it work and how comprehensive will it be? We're going to look through Nintendo's history, its stated philosophy and then look to the future to forecast what exactly is going on.
00:00 Backwards Compatibility
00:35 Nintendo's View
01:56 Nintendo's History
03:13 Challenges
04:40 Console Transitions
06:41 Polling and Research
08:40 How it's used
YouGov links:
business.yougov.com/content/4...
business.yougov.com/content/3...
I really appreciate how open your topics are without feeling too speculative. A lot of channels either focus too hard on trying to think like Nintendo, or dont know what to talk about other than the latest rumor. You bring a lot of interesting ideas and overlooked data to the table, it strikes a really good balance that allows for discussion to continue during a very slow time in the industry.
Agreed
Quickly became one of my favorite channels to watch
Same
I click on those notifications real quick
Agreed
The main reason the massive amount of ports was successful on the switch is that no one played those games because no one had a wii u. Imo the chance they do that again for the switch 2 is basically zero. I could see them enhancing the framerate and resolution for something like breath of the wild and charging for that as an upgrade, but I think the amount of good will they would gain from making that a free upgrade would be massive.
almost all switch games won't be rereleased
There were dozens of us wiiu owners!
@@pwittsso like 24?
@@mr.shplorb662 at least
Also the Switch couldn’t be backwards compatible with the WiiU because (1) the Switch didn’t have a disc player (and a disc player would be a bad idea on a portable system anyway) and (2) the WiiU had the Gamepad gimmick. It’s true that a lot of WiiU games didn’t use the Gamepad for too much interesting stuff, but some games did and it’s still a matter of making games work without the gamepad on an individual level.
The Switch 2 will probably have all of the key features of the Switch, so across the board backwards compatibility with the Switch should be feasible for the Switch 2.
If Switch 2 doesn't have backwards compatibility it will absolutely kill it IMO. The switch library is SO huge and a lot of people forget but the switch had so little to play at launch other than BotW which was also on the Wii U. And they really can't afford to do the whole "port stuff from the last platform for $60 one by one" thing again like they did with Wii U stuff because most Switch 2 buyers will have actually bought a Switch 1. A lot of the old switch games have really long legs sales-wise like Mario Kart and Animal Crossing. It would be a mistake to cut these off with Switch 2 with no replacements.
agree, and requiring payments for upgrades for games like Splatoon 3 or MK8D puts them in a weird position for future installments of said franchises
It really must have most games 'just working'. The switch is different to any other console Nintendo have made. It's more like an iPhone then an Xbox, so they shouldn't treat it like a generational leap
BotW isn’t on the WiiU. 😅 it was supposed to be but never was.
considering the large install base of the switch i’d have to agree
@@phoenixmorphixare… are you serious? you may want to google this because tons of people played botw on wii u, myself included. it absolutely came out on wii u
Backwards compatibility is paramount with the increased push by the industry for digital purchases. If BC was dropped, digital purchases would likely take a big hit, which would be catastrophic for indie developers who don't have the means to support physical releases. Additionally, Live Service games potentially make the feature a necessity in order to bring over existing players.
The biggest thing for me, when it comes to backwards compatibility, is what the customer's expectations are. Both PS5 and Xbox X/S are fully backwards compatible with their previous consoles' libraries, so I think people would be confused/angry if the Switch successor wasn't. Simple as that.
Also, Nintendo has always supported backwards compatibility on their handheld devices. Switch is a handheld device with an HDMI port. So I would expect it regardless.
Maybe HW backwards compatibility would be a simple slick solution that ensures that Nintendo does not need to expend effort porting games, however that is also a revenue source and the HW, R&D & QA needed might be too much.
We need Backwards compatibility for switch 2 and we need GameCube games too.
IMHO most of the major GameCube games have already been remastered - Sunshine, Pikmin 1 and 2, The Wind Waker, etc. We do need Twilight Princess and The Wind Waker on the Switch 1 or 2 though!
@@caseypenk
Sunshine was a port, not a Remaster.
They'll probably add GameCube NSO support for the next console
@@Laz3rCat95 i believe Nintendo seen more beneficial to do ports, remakes and remasters of Game Cube games
100%
It better be fully physically and digitally backwards compatible
Can you give me a Link to the article you mentioned at 6:52? The one with the 50%
You would help me a lot with my own research! :D
I've added the links to the show notes.
2:54 well, actually...
The MegaDrive was designed to be retrocompatibile from the get go. The cartridge pinout just needed a little rearrangement and a pause button. Hence the power base converter
As you pointed out, any Nintendo system that isn't a giant change from its predecessor has had it. Especially with handhelds. I probably played more DS software on my 3DS than 3DS software due to the DS' fantastic library and still having a significant DS backlog in the 3DS era.
We've been getting increasing leaks/rumors/reports that the new system has full Switch backwards compatibility
Because it's not like the "No BC" narrative came from speculation based on basically nothing.
love this channel so much. intelligent takes but also digestible for someone like me who’s just a layman
There are games that I refused to play because the lag or massive slowdowns even for some pixel games were way too big to overlook or ignore. I’d love to be able to play them the way they were intended.
Yuzu's NCE made me a firm believer that Nvidia will make a translation layer for games compatibility between Switch 1 and 2; even though Nintendo has historically enabled native BC (basically having the previous generations' guts inside the new generation), I think this will be a shift to emulation-based / translation-based BC because of how manageable it is now to patch incompatible games, or to offer next-gen versions for people who bought them with Nintendo accounts. Game updates/patches were basically not a thing until after the Wii/DS era.
The downside to this is that it will require per-game testing, and maybe not every game will be compatible day one. For digital games, they could blacklist untested games on the eShop until they confirm it works right, and for blacklisted games in physical format (or physical games not running the latest update), there would be a warning that the game might is running on "Legacy Mode" and might have some issues (like some PS4 games on PS5), but they wouldn't blacklist physical games. This wouldn't be a problem for Switch's best-sellers, so I think we'd only see compatiblity issues with lesser-known shovelware. I'm sure Nintendo will make sure their entire first-party catalogue will run as intended on the Switch 2, and that they'll reach developers to patch/recompile their games if they don't pass the compatibility test.
However, because of service-based games that are beyond the console they run on (like Fortnite or Minecraft), there's the option to re-compile native ports to the Switch 2, shoving compatibility issues aside and take full advantage of the console's new hardware. This will also probably be an option for Nintendo's evergreen titles like Mario Odyssey and for Switch ports that would benefit from improved specs like Witcher 3 or DOOM Eternal. By that point, the Switch cartridge would only work as a key to access a recompiled digital version on the Switch 2. Some Switch games that will get a physical re-stock might also have a banner saying that they're compatible with tthe Switch 2, and after Switch 2's launch, it might be a QA requirement for future Switch 1 games that they need to run well on the Switch 2.
What are the recent leaks you mention in the description?
I think backwards compatibility really does just hinge on how much Nintendo want to build the successor off of Switch's architecture. With the market capture of Switch, I think there's a desire to make the transition to new hardware easy. I wouldn't be surprised if the design mentality is "the Switch, but more". More processing power, more resolution, more bells and whistles. Keep it backwards compatible with all previous games so that early adopters don't feel they're suffering through early launch drought, and so those same adopters can talk about how TotK runs better on Switch 2. Then in that second year there'll be a more strong library of exclusives to convince people who held off to come over.
Could you please include reference links in the show notes? Great video, thanks!
Done and thanks!
Nintendo had full BC for all of their handheld. Gbc, gba,ds, and 3ds all had them. Wii and wiiu were the only two home systems to have full BC. Unlike going from wiiu to Switch, Next gen system should not be a big architectural departure and as a handheld/console, it is more likely than not to offer some kind of BC.
You can literally buy standard tablets with the Tegra X1 in it (the NS SoC). Granted we don't know for sure what the next consoles specs will be, but unless they use crazy custom tech back compat wouldn't be difficult from a technical point of view. Though gatekeeping it regardless would be a very Nintendo move
Great video
Backwards compatibility is great overall but I hate that it makes my OG switch obsolete after I did a shell swap, joystick to hallstick swap and just the TLC ive put into it over the years; I'd hate to pack it up and put it away, probably indefinitely, or sell it.
Nintendo has a pattern of usually doing backwards compatibility for one generation back unless if doing so wouldn’t really be feasible (they also sometimes drop backwards compatibility in mid gen refresh models).
I think if the Switch 2 was not going to be backwards compatible, then they probably would have delayed Zelda TotK and made it a cross-gen release like BotW.
I think backward compatability would help move console owners to the new platform. Then after that, it's use would dwindle to a minimum.
(As i was typing this, you said something similar.)
Or maybe they remove it down the road with a new revision, similar to GBA backward compatibility being cut for DSi, or GCN compatibility being cut for the Wii Mini/Wii U
I think backwards compatibility makes sense if the hardware can support it and the previous console was popular enough. Assuming the rumors I've heard are correct that this will be a very similar system to the current Switch, they should absolutely make it backwards compatible.
For me this is mainly about trust.
If it isn't backwards campatible, I won't buy a big library of games anymore on a nintendo machine (that being said I have about 250-300 switch games).
personally, if there is no backwards compatibility it would probably put me off from purchasing the new console for quite some time. I bought too many games in the early years of the switch after getting my first job prior to college, and now I'm in a position where I have to save a lot of that money that is still have left over from that job through the rest of my college years as piling a job on top of a CS degree does not seem particularly appealing to me at the moment. I can't spend my money simply because Nintendo is putting out a new system like I used to do when I was younger. I don't have that kind of money or time to fully enjoy it.
If I can't bring all of my old games over, many of which I never played that much of, or was able to complete, I wouldn't see a reason to upgrade until I can get Pokemon or Xenoblade on the new system. Why waste $300-400 on a system that I can't even play any of my old or favorite games on? Most of my playtime has been spent trying to 100% both franchises over the years and I'd like to continue playing them until I do finally reach my goals, not to mention move on to games I also bought but never spent much time in.
I would like to continue working on completing games like Xenoblade 2 or Pokemon Legends on the new system. That's quite important to me. It would not be worth it to get a new system until the next entries for both franchises.
I will also say that one of the reasons I justified buying a lot of games when I was younger and less careful with my money is I figured the next system would have backwards compatibility. If this wasn't doesnt with Switch it would heavily discourage me from buying new games, especially digital ones I can't sell.
Given that the next Pokemon Legends game is coming out next year for the current console, likely around the release time of the new console, that's even more reason for it to be backwards compatible.
One of my biggest nintendo switch regrets is that in 2017, when I had to make a nintendo account, I made a new email very quickly without saving any of the details. I felt like it didn't matter and that i'd never use it. Now my switch's online account is linked to an email I don't have a password to ;u;
I have around 200 physical Switch games, this thing better be fully backwards compatible or so help me god I will implement it myself
9:29 - I remember watching MVG's video on the challenges of backwards compatibility - and I remember disagreeing with it. Nintendo is likely to stick with an ARM CPU on the next-generation system, and it sounds like Nintendo is working closely with nVidia to create the GPU for the next-gen system, which sounds like it will be customized for Nintendo's needs. If Nintendo wants to make backwards compatibility available for their next system, they've already planned out how that will work with nVidia, and it won't require as drastic changes as MVG imagines since nVidia can ensure the appropriate functionality is baked into the GPU. It's very likely there will just need to be some changes to the drivers - I don't think it will need to go as far as outright emulation or having a separate chip.
But that narrative stuck, it seems. Was it just supposed to be outrage farming based on an appeal to authority?
@@NuiYabuko Well, I'm not living in his head, so I can't tell for sure - but I think MVG sees everything in the lens of emulation because he's so deep into that particular field.
Hey Nintendo Forecast - your mention of the GB/GBC/GBA line made me think something - what if nintendo tries that again, but with the switch? What're the odds of that? Also because youre a forecast channel every year or so you should go back and review your old forecasts in a livestream or something that we can watch later too!
I'm thinking about how to approach that. It's tricky because quantifying exactly what that looks like to make a forecast is hard. And I did do a roundup a few weeks ago of my forecasts for the first year if you go back in my videos - "What I learned forecasting Nintendo for a year". Livestream is an interesting idea.
During the Wii U early days when there was nothing on the system I just used my Wii to play Wii / game cube titles until the Wii U had an acceptable library and then I just used the Wii mode and when the Wii U a great library I just played the Wii U and never touch the Wii / game cube again.
Backwards compatibility is certainly something valued amongst consumers.
- Also "Back Compat" is terrible. There definitely was space on the thumbnail for both words without abbreviation.
One thing you didn’t bring up is used games. Assuming Nintendo doesn’t keep making original Switch Cartridges after the Switch 2 releases, the only way for new Switch 2 players to play original Switch games is to either buy the excess stock stores have or buy a used copy. The issue for Nintendo is that they make no money off used sales. That may be another reason why Nintendo may lock backwards compatibility behind a paywall.
There is more retention on the nintendo switch than any nintendo console ever. The Backwards compatibility should be more meaningful in my eyes.
Nintendo always prioritizes back compat in transition periods, unless there is some unique barrier. There is none now. First gen Switch 2 will likely sport back compat and then we will get a lite model without it.
best case scenario they do what sony does with $10 upgrades assuming next gen nintendo transitions fully to $70. BC is mostly just for goodwill and as iwata pointed out, for helping the library at launch. As time passes tho it becomes less and less of a feature which explains why Ds lite and on they removed GBA BC from it. Hopefully nintendo allows at least their games to be BC with 3rd parties having to do their own
Sony’s first party games are free to upgrade to next gen most of the time. it’s usually just EA and Ubisoft who charge.
Imo putting a upgrade system behind a subscription would be down right awful
Imagine enjoying your game that you bought but because you don't have internet you can't play it
I’m surprised by the amount of people who are genuinely afraid of Switch 2 not having backwards compatibility. IMO, that’s the WAAAY less likely scenario. Everyone should assume that it’s backwards compatible until Nintendo shocks us otherwise. It’s a very very very safe bet! (I will return to this comment and accept your condemnations if my optimism about this somehow fails)
if they got rid of those obnoxious, fugly grey gradients on the side of their NSO retro apps i would use them.
1:55 Nintendo Switch have a massive game lineup,not making Switch sucessor backward compatible with Switch, will be Nintendo shooting themselves on the foot.
Commonly cited fallacy is that Nintendo will want to resell old games as ports bc that strat worked for Switch. But they neglect to mention that only worked bc the install base 10X'd from Wii U to Switch.
exactly. they wouldn’t get away with it now. the userbase is so large people would just play the originals on the switch instead.
Not only that but the only times they didn’t do backwards compatibility is when their hardware is far too drastically different for it to be feasible which was more common with their home consoles vs their portable systems. So unless the successor uses a completely different architecture or changes physical mediums (which seems unlikely) then there shouldn’t be any logical business reasons to cut backwards compatibility
Not only that but the only times they didn’t do backwards compatibility is when their hardware is far too drastically different for it to be feasible which was more common with their home consoles vs their portable systems. So unless the successor uses a completely different architecture or changes physical mediums (which seems unlikely) then there shouldn’t be any logical business reasons to cut backwards compatibility
Switch 2 is going to be the Series S and X of Switch console family.
The Switch doesn’t need backwards compatibility as there are still games being made for the Nintendo Switch, like there are still games being made for the Xbox One.
The Nintendo Switch and Switch 2 are just a small piece of the NX puzzle.
NX is literally just a code name for the system back in 2014-16.
@@cwega2463 A codename for the next generations of Nintendo consoles. Not just one. Especially when businesses are shifting gears to AI and are making mergers with other businesses in the process.
It isnt its actually a nvidea code for console level tegras every tegra gen has a Nx version with a game console like power draw the term nx is litterally used to discribe the kind of chip the switch family would use @@cwega2463
@@callibor3119currect based on the tegra family of soc and there nx level designs
@@audie-cashstack-uk4881 The Tegra X1 is underclocked on the Switch. Which means there are less cores to work with. But the Switch is going to get a boost to keep up with all the games already in the eShop and more games that may come. What Nintendo is doing is no different than what Xbox is doing with the Xbox One and Series S and X.
The Switch 2 however is going to have a more powerful chip not from Nvidia’s Tegra line, but another chip line with more cores than the Tegra series and with better frame rates and resolutions to play on. But I think the smart move like we have seen with all of Nintendo’s consoles before the Switch, they make the chip just powerful enough to play Unreal Engine 5 games, not at native 4k, but can be upscaled to 4k.
3rd parties seem to have started having a pushback against backward compatibility. At least the western ones like Rockstar.
Trying to predict the Switch 2 is like solving a really hard yet fascinating puzzle. One that combines tech, business strategy and creativity.
As much as I love the unique hardware features (and hate the term ‘gimmick’) it is crazy to see how users eventually become bored with every one of those features (3D, motion control, dual screens etc). I wonder if this is even true for the TV mode on the switch. I hear a lot of people say they only ever play it in handheld mode.
Moti9n controls is a gimmick so 3d fyro ouse is a gimmick in what universe are tou referring to 90% of switch gamers use gyro mouse and its a 100% basic feature of any modern controller andmis fully integrated as a overlay in steam on pc your full of shit
I only bought an Xbox Series X cuz of backwards compatibility. But it’s also the least popular system!
Having to pay to upscale games you already own sounds horrid
Switch 2 is backward compatible simple logic
Stewie from Family Guy sure can’t wait for Switch 2 😂😂
While I do want digital backwards compatibility. I won’t care much if they don’t get physical backwards compatibility.
MVG 🤢🤢
No one uses backwards compatibility
That's absolutely FALSE.
The 3DS had DS backwards Capability that served as a big benefit.
I use it all the time on my 3Ds to play DS games.
that false, i played my DS games on my 3DS, and Game Cube on my Wii.
I’ve always used the backwards compatibility. I don’t usually have a lot of storage space or extra space to store additional hardware. I rather sell my old console and keep the games to play on the new console, like DS to 3DS and Wii to WiiU. For me, I would I have a console just sitting there collecting dust since I can use the new console to play the same games? I’m no console collector so I don’t mind selling the old console.
Yeah, TOTALLY no one uses it at all. Me using my 3DS to play DS games never happened apparently. Please stop making stupid takes. Everyones now ratioing you.