Under/Over Football Betting Strategy to Win Repeatedly - Football Betting
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 21 ส.ค. 2022
- Here I reveal an Under/Over football betting strategy that mathematically wins repeatedly. See how and why in this video as the strategy is shared over a 30-day sample.
Simple advantage software: bit.ly/3r55vkb (OddsMonkey)
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Premier League betting strategies are rare, this video explains why. Taking value is the only way to win long term, although sportsbooks won't tolerate it for long!
This video explains a football betting strategy for informational purposes. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Always do your own due diligence. Some links within this description are affiliate links. If you click on one of them, I may receive a small commission.
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For more sports betting tips, subscribe to Caan Berry Pro Trader: / caanberry - กีฬา
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See a follow-up video about football accumulators here: th-cam.com/video/IeyoU4uJuMM/w-d-xo.html
Mate is a company called WHG (White Hate Gaming) they ban all gamblers on small spending special slot players they play on 20p 40p and they only keep high spenders, streamers they represent their casinos can bet £1000/£2000 in one spin in Roulette and do £10 to £40 a spin, but low stake slot players they get banned as problem gamblers.
Do you have a betting site or website
Bro create a vip sportbetting group ill pay to join
Open 1xbet
I want to ask, how do you easily scan the sportsbook to find these overpriced odds, scanning the entire market for these odds is time consuming.
I’ve seen a team H2H being 3-3, 3-1, 2-1 and I bet over 1.5
That day they played 1-0😂
The beautiful game!
Me as well😂
The day I bet , match gets cancelled !
that isnt a great indicatior. You need to get bigger trends to justify an over /under bet. Check for that trend both home and away that specific season throughout the entire season. If the trend is good you should also check to see if it is still observed in the most recent matches (last 5 or so). Then check if the usual goal scorers are all playing (usually only possible for more popular leagues). Betting for consistent wins requires hours of chasing value.
Lol
@@amanthegreat23 😂😂
Even though the downside is sports books restrictions, it's great to see these videos where you actually find value bets and give a step by step guide....throwing money at rebel betting etc removes thinking for yourself . Best video yet in my opinion!
Glad you enjoyed!
What are the restrictions?
@@lll.636 I did this for nba player props, ladbrokes limited my stakes after about 2 months, PointsBet same
@@lll.636 went from betting around 100$ to 22.38 and they wouldn’t accept the rest. Dogs
I have not understood could u tell me what is the strategy?
Always so sad to be reminded that ultimately there is no way to beat the bookies for more than a short window, unless you have the ability to grow an unlimited farm of pets :(
I had rangers on a 15 game slip.only scored 1 goal,needed 2 on the match.
Theres no way of knowing
@@catup8669 Rangers 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
There's only one way of beating the bookies............................................. do not give them any of your money
If I offered you 11/10 on the toss of a coin, would you take it?
Even 21/20?
Don’t agree at all. I have made profit from the bookies the last 3 years since I started properly started studying football. Not much but I was up £435, £800 then £250 last year and I am up £270 this year so far. As I said, it’s not much but well better than being down to the bookies and it can be done.
This is a fantastic video. For a long time I always thought about how I could use low liquidity markets to my advantage, you may just have solved that! Looking forward to getting gubbed by the bookies now!
This is fascinating to someone who’s studied statics and decision analysis.
You are exploiting a long run market asymmetry between the real odds and the better value odds.
It is endless also as the discrepancy is there and you bet when it’s in your favour, as you are always consistently getting better odds that’s the book maker who you are competing against.
Basically you are both taking the same bet, but you are going in with the probability of you beating them higher than the other way around. So over the long run you will come out on top!
This is great!
Very nice Caan, heart sank when I realised you were using sportsbooks though haha.
You could just leave an order in the exchange the price you see with the bookie. Okay, a chance it may not get filled if a game develops quickly, but it’s another potential angle. It would also allow full automation with software such as Fairbot or BF bot
For me I know very well how I win. Every day and big amounts and I'll start teaching my strategy soon
Great video, I like the way ou explain the content detailly. Is easy to understand and put into practice my everyone.
I always thought you guys held back information on TH-cam, but this is gold.
See the new upload we just added too!
Any advice on how to find these opportunities? I'm finding it difficult to actually locate these on sportsbooks
Thanks for the video mate👍 any chance in the future you could show a day showing all the bets you pick for examples ?
Good video, however when the exchange spreads are that wide, you can't automatically say the mid point is the correct price. It just doesn't work like that. If it was, say, 2.4 - 2.48, it would be reasonable to assume 2.44 is right. But when it's 2.3 - 2.6 with £2 traded than there's no way you can be sure 2.45 is the true one.
Can you explain this shit in American odds 🤣
American odds are as complicated as fractional to me
@@jnxythemouse for odds over 2, just minus 1 then multiply by 10, for odds under 2, good luck. 2.4 becomes +140, 2.44 is +144, 2.6 is +160.
A fair comment, the problem comes with creating videos here though. I have to keep it simplistic for everyone to understand. If I start going harder on finer detail and exchanges the majority aren't interested and don't get it. There could have been better examples for sure but this was the first one that I looked at for the recording, will keep that in mind for future uploads!
@@CaanBerryProTrader Thanks for the reply. Enjoy your videos, and get the point you were making in general.
As you say, maybe not the best example here but good luck for future ones 👍
another well explained and presented video as you keep saying got to keep taking the value to profit over the long term
Hello Caan, thanks for the video and strategy. What is the most common way to find the matches? Thank you
Using kelly criterion to work out bet sizing could maximize said profits by alot. Obviously more variance. But when your edge is higher, betting more relative to odds must be advantageous.
if your completely restricted with your bookmaker accounts but you have an exchange account then try offering the bookies value price on the exchange with the stake you wish to use as obviously prices move both before and during a match so it may suprise you how often you can get your bets matched even if like me you add a couple of ticks more to the bookies value price to increase your value on that particular bet as well. Just a thought
Love my weekly Caan Berry Monday morning vid 😂 Another good one sir
OK I might give that a go on some gubbed/stake restricted accounts with small stakes to see how I get on. Nice one. Time to get scrolling through the Algerian 2nd division ;-)
I have a real problem understanding what he says. Hhahaha
Well he is British, all the Hollywood movies made us get use to American accent😂
He speaks very clearly actually
He speaks very fast
I know you said that you can find this opportunities in the lower leagues, but is there a more specific method or were you just going through the different leagues and different games until you found something?
in your video you mentioned that you could set up alerts for this so i presume that there is software you use as a time saver for yourself since your obviously doing your daily betfair trading etc and videos so can you give us a clue as to what your using to do this cheers for all the time and effort you put in to do all your informative videos and content
Can you Tell us the software maybe?
I only bet on over 2.5 goals. This video helps a lot!
Cool, glad it helped. We just added another that might be of interest.
Help a brother
It's Harem for you Muslims to gamble, hope your mum don't find out & beat you.
Same. It is only a matter of goalkeeping bettint over/under 2.5. I’ve had games with extremely many shots on goal but it won’t simply score because their goalkeeper is a monster. I once was one game away from 1500 euro. Each team had 7 shots on goal with ZERO goals. My previous game the scoreboard was 2-2 after 35 min when both teams had each 2 shots on goal.
I do not look at the odds because of this reason. I have won on over 2.5 goals where the odds were 2.90 but lost on odds 1.70 despite statistics. All.About.Goalkeeping. All.
Yeh bruv thats the best market but they fix games alot so its getting harder to win
Could betconnect be used to avoid account restrictions in the long run?
Thank you so much brother for everything you've been doing for us thank you for telling the truth I was realizing why we are losing so much money. I'm really appreciate. I am thinking using over and under it's more better than saying winning.
Send odds
Whatsapp number
@@keng4560We see these things easily spiritually.
I love when bookies did 2 dollar favs in afl was easy to get a free bet
Getting the point with this fella is milestone
Really? Others say it's too fast to understand!
534£ is huge over here mate 😂 Good video!
Does backing with small stakes (like 10 pounds or less) or laying (expecting someone to back my lay odds also with less than 10 pounds) make it sure that I'll get matched?
good evening, I've been admiring your work for a long time and I thought I'd try one of your tactics. I started with over/under betting strategy to compare the odds from Betfair exchange and I have a question for you if you want to help me. What are you doing when the odds at exchange are wrong and its to low? I play the bet on my sport book as a value but odds from exchange goes up and their is no value at all
Great quality video
I backed Over 3.5 in Psv-Rangers game @2.90, day before kick off. It's Wednesday morning, I could lay it on exchange @2.6. Not bad ;)
Thats the one.
Please which platform accepts laying of odd??
Best part of the video @1:55 Aussie Rules!!!
Can't i do this strat on other bets than Overs/unders, if i just find odds over the midtponit of the back bet and the lay bets on the exchange?
Great video caan. Im in a tricky position where I don't have many accounts that aren't open or limited. How would you go about getting more accounts?
Caan, wouldn't be easier to bet on selected value bets in exchanges
once the match starts after 10 -15 minutes if no change in scoreline this way you'd get much higher odds
so 2% commission wouldn't matter
I think sportsbooks took this explanation in consideration cause it´s being very hard to find a value game. The odds at sportsbooks are all under the betfair exchange price!
yet another excellent video Caan - can't see it working on Sportsbooks though - no chance of getting decent stakes on minor football especially if taking value - would it not be better suited to the exchange?
Exchange means commission, and premium charge for me. Wont get mental stakes on any sportsbook to be fair unless a total degen. Can work for a limited time on reasonable stakes.
@@CaanBerryProTrader I use the exchange to place my bets. I just factor in the commission (2%) and add it to the odds I want to reach. Not every bet gets matched, but I find it the best option due to being limited by the sportsbooks.
@@HeadstoneRestorer It would be better to use Pinnacle...
Great video. Liked the content and production.
I’ve been doing value betting for a little while now but starting to get the stake restrictions coming through now so looking into trading as more of a longer term prospect. Any recommendations for trading strategies that don’t require you to be at your computer during races/matches? I like the relative time flexibility and speed of value betting, not sure can achieve that with trading though? Thanks
How do u do it please
Share please 😂👍
Great content!
Thanks.
Am very grateful thank you God bless you
I’ve started using this technique but am struggling to understand when to place bets as the odds are always changing so one second they are a value bet next minute they aren’t
Bet when you see the value early
Interesting video but again penalised for being successful by the bookmakers which makes it difficult to make it pay long term. Looking forward to more racing website and tipster videos maybe a live Q&A would be good 👍.
Does this apply to live bets? If before the match the odds for over goals is 2 for example, if during the match we bet on 3 odds. Is this a value bet?
Dear Caan, thanks so much for the video, my question is how do you stack per team. Or the minimum and maximum of stack .
Caan, did you have min odds in mind here? Can't see any odds on bets in your sample.
Hi, Please advise the money side of the strategy. Do you start at a particular stake and increase when there is a loss or level staking ? Thats where i think the profit is made, what is the staking method. Thanks.
I love your videos you are soooooooo incredible brother
What do you think is a much more stable way to find true odds using betfair exchange values or pinnacle values?
I have a good strategy i saw it on this spanish match i saw a player get 2 to 3 warnings from the ref early on infact i think it was 3 warnings after 20 mins so next challenge and he was going to bet booked betfair had him at 7/4 to be carded what a giveaway
Very interesting. Very cool channel
Hi Caan, would this strategy work with the Over/Under Corner kicks market?
Do you use software to get the matches? I saw they are hard to find even in the Asian competitions.
i have just found one game with odds applying to this criteria. It's not easy, but it's there, i suppose it's not there for long, so best to get when market forming. I wonder if same applies to other sports hmmm
Perfectly explained, thanks for the video its a great help 🙂
I have not understood could u tell me what is the strategy?
can you explain it to me then ?
from the excel sheet he posted i can see i bet always 50 euros on different matches. monstly i bet over but sometimes also under. why should it work in this way ?
i think live play is more better. you remember what odds must be and then wait ?= because i cannot see signals at all at pre game. today for example there no games that fit into this criteria
Lost loads betting. Only learned one thing, never bet against a 1/0 or 0/1.It is in my opinion the killer score.
Could you not also try to get matched for the higher odds on the exchange Instead ?
Great betting tip! I should tell carson teng bo teng to bet another 50 dollars TY!
System working well, please send more money
will this work on money line too. i see signals more often with moneyline then over unders
A little while ago "a friend" had the genius idea of backing at BF's sportsbook and repeatedly laying against it on the exchange. My "friend" now has two broken legs and a gubbed sportsbook account! lol
dident enjoy hurting your boyfriend tom but you know the rules i hope you took him flowers when you visited him in hospital its the least you could have done now tell him to behave himself and dont get lemon with me or the next time i will really go to town. chow baby
I'm still proper confused 😅 but here to learn. Put a bet on last night for 69's (Basketball) to win my 9-15pt margin and it came in £510 🥳
Start with 10 euro, choose 2 matches with over 1.5 goals a day for sure about odd 1.40 together and 10 days winning reaks got 1100 euro
Do u need a minimum liquidity in the Betfair market
Is this only possible with the Exchange? or could i abuse it with other bookmakers offering higher average odds?
Can you ELI5 all of this?
Thanx dog you is the best
I'm feeling good about this binary options. Think everybody can make some money on it
How about watching match live and wait till price lifts to hit the value mark then place it on the exchange.. Might miss a few winners I guess ..
this type of market is interesting and also risky especially on some matches like classicos
The only problem in Germany is that we dont have Betfair anymore. Do you know any other sites that display the true value of the bet? Great content btw!!
Smarkets?
Do you choose at random the number of goals ?
So if you do it at 50 pound stake say odds of 2.6 over 2.5 goals and its nil nil at half time are u leaving it or cashing out for a loss
i see signals are happening often with basketball pre game instead with 3 odds. do you think its worth of shot
To be successful at this you'll need to have access to multiple accounts as sometimes with value betting the bookings will restrict you when you are losing and you won't be able to place enough bets to have the guaranteed profit ☹️
Way of the world now isnt it, Dave.
So you just find anything over the true odds and make the bet? any rules you would suggest? like nothing past 75th minute for example
So we should bet on lower teams ???
Hi Caan, Did you select the bets based on value alone or did you check the expect goals per game?
Value, always value.
Me am among a group where I receive 350odds daily and I make a lot of money from it if you are interested to join comment or like
i did not understand how this strategy works. would you mind to explain it to me ? @@CaanBerryProTrader
Hi, thanks for your videos. I am having a bit of a problem understanding, you place two or three bets a day with a 50 pound stake. with an average of 2.6 odds? And if you win 40 percent of the bets in 30 days you make profit?
Its bc when you do win, your stake is more then doubled. So even if you win less than u lose in the end ehat you win still covers the stake losses. Its simple math
Did you always bet the same amount or did you alter your stake that the winnings will always be the same? Or did you just staked randomly?
Fixed matches are real, I paid for a match and I got what I paid for, it came out positive
Hi Caan, quick question if you wouldn't mind answering..... I prefer the fibonacci method of staking as opposed to level stakes, only problem is tho is finding a type of bet that provides around a 50% strike rate.....youhave just given me that I think?!! Do you ever use fibre? Many thanks mate.
Fibo not fibre that's another subject entirely 😆
Does this work for other markets too?
yes caan probally most honest trading expert on the web
I do my best, there are plenty of duds :)
Whats the starting budget? To see earnings
Did you only bet overs or did you bet the under as well
hi, which staking is for you most profitable in long run for betting on value? is ok to use proportional staking 2 percent from recent bankroll?
yes if u want to spend that
Hey, let me ask you a question. I recently discovered coupons in William Hill, on which you can predict which teams will score at least one goal in their matches. I used to gamble a lot years ago, and I never saw these coupons back then. How long have these coupons been around? Are they a new thing, or have they always been around? I wish I'd discovered them ears ago.
When I should play over 4.5 or 2.5.. I only saw over 2.5... How to know that?
Regards
What’s the formula you was using on your spreadsheet
Is there a maximum odds we should be looking for using this? Like 5.0 should mean the backed outcome is highly unlikely to happen... are we looking for something no higher than 3.0 or is there another strategy to picking which bets to make?
No not the odds that matter, its the difference between the odds shared that matters. The bigger the better.
Everything went over my head and that's fine. But I don't understand you can give prices what type of bets but your list had for. Example over 4.5 under 2.5 over 3 .5 ect. How do you know when to go under as high as 4.5 or as low as 2.5 and who to pick? So much left uncovered and surprised no one has picked up on this.
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Or euro 2024
I dont get it, do you take your bet before game? or do you leave like that till the game ends it?
So for this strategy are you just placing one bet with the sports book?
This has stumped me for some reason, can't get my head round out !
It is basically, if the odds are higher than the mid point between back and lay you back it on the Sportsbook / 365 etc?
Berry communication is very good, how can I get these odds
Please where can I follow you instagram or email ,which which
So:
1. Pick semi-unknown leagues matches
2. Check the “fair value” of over / under off of a bet exchange (e.g. betfair)
3. If the bookie you’re using (eg. William hill) has odds higher than the fair value AND that the odds are greater ~2.2 (that’s a crucial point) then place the bet
That makes sense.
Question: do you always bet on “over” or do you also bet on “under” ? What if my bookie overprices both “over” and “under”?
Should we always stake the same amount?
And should we check the betfair odds for every single match?
Or do we just say for example any odds less than a certain amount isn’t value
Why bother using a bookmaker? Just use an exchange and you will get a better price
Can someone explain it to me?
Well the same game would not be over value on BOTH sides of the same game Over Under
@@lumiii7391 when you gave a higher value, you stake higher
What about two results overpriced which should i select??
Would love a copy of the spreadsheet if available please?