Why China’s Economy isn’t Actually Collapsing?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 1 พ.ค. 2024
- #china #europe #economy
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Entering 2024, foreign media continues to utilize topics like industrial transfer and consumption decline to render the Chinese economy as “collapsing”. Today, we are honored to have Haico Ebbers, one of the leading scholars in China-EU economic relations, to present why he feels "confident" about the Chinese economy.
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Agree with the professor. But unfortunately in regards to protectionism :
- The West believes in free trade when the West is in the good times.
- The West believes in protectionism when the West is in bad times.
- But the West will NEVER EVER allow others to have protectionism at ANY time under ANY circumstances.
.... even if that protectionism is in response to an attack by the West and sanctions by the West.
The simplest propaganda technique is when, in the title, they ask a question and then the chewed-up answer is given in the material or video itself. pre-prepared answers are offered that do not provide any room for maneuver for the viewer’s mental activity.
It's been collapsing for the past 30 years
Lol
as per western media. hahaha
Go and visit, travel, see it by yourself
The "Experts " prediction range from tomorrow to a decade.
yes. yes. will be so for the next 100 years.
During my recent visit to China, I saw a country with a vibrant economy with signs of rapid innovation everywhere. This is the most digitized large economy in the world. The impact of housing correction is significant but will be temporary. I think China will show good growth in the coming years.
It makes economy more healthy other than heavily depends on real estate and American market.
The housing collapse were actually initiated by the CCP themselves, they don't wanna see runaway real estate price like Japan previously.
I couldn't agree with you more.
Anyway, the u.s. spent 300 million annually approved by congress to conduct a smearing campaign on China, just be more aware of propaganda from the west.
Homes price in major Chinese cities are way overpriced. A large correction is needed for the good of home affordability. That’s something the ruling elites in the US would not like to see
Because all sources who tells that make propaganda for the American public, to average American feels good about themself
Psychologically it makes perfect sense American despair in their own economy translates into popularity of cope videos about China's collapse.
You can almost use view counts on those videos are a direct measurement of American economic confidence
@vlhc4642 statistics don't lie, buddy . These aren't just American or Western statistics. The CCP can push the propoganda all they want, but the world can see the truth . How many buildings are collapsing in china etc . The freeway in southern china that just collapsed must be good architecture. So advanced.
@HahaHaha-gq8ft What you said is 100 % propaganda, this is exactly how it sounds. how many bridges and buildings fall in the USA, and how many trains derail and kill people and nobody talks about it? What problems China can have the US is 10 times worse
@@HahaHaha-gq8ft You're not working with statistics are you, do you know how many roads gets washed away by landslide every year? Statistically China has more buildings than everyone else combined and in turn has the lowest failure rate in the world, do you know what the word "rate" means American? Do they teach that concept in America?
California just spent 9 years and $11 billion building 1 mile of HSR, America is not even remotely in China's league buddy.
agree. they need lies to feel validated because their small brain cells can't differentiate between lies and reality
Americans think that China cannot live without American market, which is not a fact.
China has ready started diversifying away from just depending on the US market since 10yrs ago... The bri
Ironically it's the opposite: America cannot live without cheap Chinese manufacturing.
Americans think that *THE WORLD* cannot live without American market
Americans Think that THE WORLD -- Not Only China -- Cannot Live Without Them...😅
That THE WHOLE WORLD 🌎 Would Collapse Without Them.
😂😂😂
WHOLE WORLD WOULD COLLAPSE WITHOUT THEM.
😂😂😂
farmers workers engineers soldiers... just find out they're fine
Without bankers
The reason is quite simple Western Economists, Politicians, anti-China governments, and their obedient MSM view China's economy through Western theory and standards or with a pair of jaundiced eyes. But the Chinese System is totally different from the West
excellent analysis
True. Chinese savings and family supports reduce the pain in housing collapses problem, unlike the Americans.
Chinese central Government is the largest, biggest Landlord in the world. They own every inch of the land legally and physically, and its citizens can only lease their property for a period of 70 years.
US central government can only dream they own every inch of the land in America. 😂😁
The biggest Landlord in the world will never collapse, because I can not think of any other way to collase it.
Most Western economists are just ideologues for Western capitalist dominance. They go bonkers when China plays by her own set of rules and, best of all, succeeds.
Chinese economy shall be studied by socialism economy model, western experts won't get the answer from capitalism perspective. Two difference system.
A lot of people doesn’t understand , China economy is not collapsing but transitioning . I’m a frequent traveller between HK and mainland China , there is a short term challenge in real estate market consolidation , it’s a natural economic cycle which people believe it will transition ultimately. China is investing heavily in high end industrials , 2024H2 is what most people believe when China will transition into next big upwards trend
Gordon Chang and US said China's economy has collapsed 10 times.......
and everytime he said that, he got promoted.
Between clowns like Gordon Chang and the government, the phrase,"fools seldom differs" applies. 😂😂😂😂
Don’t forget Pete zaihan. 😂
more than that bro even wrote a damn book about it
and that 公子沈Mr. Shen, who is desperately trying to collapse his motherland using his mouth.
"We still believe in free markets" He said "but sometimes(means when they are losing) we need protectionism." 🤣
There has never been a "free market" for the top economies in the World. You only promote "free market" when you hold the top economic position because anyone who follows such "unrealistic" advice will never ever displace you from the top. For those who don't know, read "kicking away the ladder" by H.J. Chang.
From a pure economic point of view, free market aren't always perfectly efficient and do not account for negative externalities. That's when government intervention may be required. E.g. without government pressure, car manufacturers will have minimal incentive in manufacturing cars that has less co2 emission.
😂
5.3% is small, how about miniscule 1.6% that US has 😂
With inflation at 5%….so real growth has been negative in America for the last 2yrs!!!! But you wouldnt know this truth if you read western media. Hahahah
And EU only grows 0.6 % last year which means Europe is literally in stagnation and recession If We cut off the inflation factor
Double standard 😂
@@ivybae9906Europe is in even big trouble than USA 💀💀💀
needs to look at the GDP number though
Ive been watching video of China collapsing for more than 5 years yet it aint happening but always ends with titles like that "why china isnt actually collapsing even tho we wanted to badly that to happen?".
I've been told about China collapsing from 1990s by the western medias. Generally they end up with "well China really achieved something, but what is the cost".
"Isn't actually collapsing" makes western world still thinks "is partly collapsing" and feels good 😅
And yet, the Chinese economy has performed better than western economies in the last 40 years. Even now, the Chinese economy is outperforming all western economies. But, lies have become one of America's tools against China, but the Chinese civilization is thousands of years old. They have experienced the vile efforts of the west before and now, their economy is the largest in the world.
feels good is very important
It is clear that the collective west dreams with the fall of Eurasia but hasn't happened, the far east has thousands of years of existence. With patience and investing in his people and nation rather than fighting endless conflicts one after another.
East Asia has had its share of conflicts, but it also has an unparalleled history of accomplishment. The world is falling back into place.
Check where 6 out of 10 bloodiest conflicts in human history took place.
How can China fail if it has a solid industrial foundation and internal and external markets !
bad leadership. which is not the case now
Any economist that ignores China's political landscape when talking about China have no idea what they are talking about.
Don't tell em😂
"When you winning, you don't need protectionism but when you are not, it is sometimes ok to have protectionism." He said. Find me a real economist on this show!
Double standards😂😂😂
Hypocrisy😊😊😊
China used protectionism to achieve economic success.. nothing wrong for protectionism.
@@user-nu5yq5fc9j China abides by the rules of trade. In the past, international brands were absolutely leading in China.China's increased investment in the new energy sector has given it a global lead, a comparative advantage it has worked hard to gain.
@@user-nu5yq5fc9j Other countries not diligent, but blame others too diligent
Great China 🇨🇳 ever great 👍 in the world 🌎 ❤
This is what the US and some western countries wanted to see but they are disappointed 😊
The reason is quite simple Western Economists, Politicians, anti-China governments, and their obedient MSM view China's economy through Western theory and standards or with a pair of jaundiced eyes. But the Chinese System is totally different from the West.....written by @yu_jd5jg
They can dream on
Thanks for explaining the industrial policy and protectionism. But I feel if we call that a double sided sword, it cuts deeper on the West than that to China, because they also lose huge market potential and profitablity in China, which is more than the rest can combine. So I think the only logic reason to explain why the west is still pushing these "looking good but actually bad"policies is mostly because of geopolitical and idealogical reasons, not on economy ones. Just my 2 cents.
很高兴你是看清楚真相的少数人之一。
@@jackli3569 that'll make two of us.😉
Everyone can see it, except those idiots in White House.
And the worse, US politics has been highjacked by Dual Citizenship Jhews for their own gains.
It's because of Trump, he brought out all the Maga America first proud but not very smart or hardworking white folk.
Nah, the iPhones are not “produced” in India. They’re manufactured in China. What they do is just take the some parts manufactured in to india, to put together. That’s all.
They put some of it together, not the actual manufacturing.
Not to mention western customers are avoiding the Indian assembled ones like plague. 😅
Because China’s economic foundation is manufacturing, as long as the energy cost is low enough and stable, it can support the economy in balance. It‘s very similar to Germany!
He said there is a rise in protectionism all over the world.
(Then mentioned only Europe and US. US has always been protectionist, and Europe is becoming increasingly protectionist. It’s not the world. It’s Europe and US. The same people that have always been preaching “free market economy”.
Then he went on about how “free trade” could also be unfair. I don’t think free trade can ever be fair. Because as you’re gaining something from free trade, someone is losing. That’s the way it’s always been, except it’s been western countries gaining, and most of the world losing.
But now that we see China, a developing country rising economically, it’s increasingly taking more out of that entire pie we call free trade, which western countries almost entirely mainly benefit from.
So no, I believe to things like globalization, there are always more losers than there are winners. The fact that some African countries, some in Asia and some in the Americas are not as wealthy is proof of that.
And from the actions of EU and the US, all that shows to me is that they only care about “free market” only when it benefits them.
Protectionism (sanction) is a poison to industrial development, and China figuer that out long time ago.
Once you built tarrifs barriers, other countries will do the same against you, which means you will lose your excess to other markets.
Secondly, you will increased your industrial input costs which makes your final products unattractive for international market. Side effects are increasing your own inflation domestically, and cause financial melt down.
The winning formula is Globalisation + Domestic Productivity. But US is losing in both fronts.
China‘s Economy will never collapse. Period.
Every individual, entities, companies, organisaions, local and central government has its "Income statement" and "Balance Sheet".
US government in terms of income is in "Trade Deficit", in terms balance sheet, they are 34 trillion in debts.
Chinese government in terms of income is in "Trade surplus", in terms of balance sheet "relatively low in debs" but "high in domestic saving".
China has beat US in its own game of Capitalism.
US can print "Unlimited USD" to boost its economy. But China can print their RMB as well, but they do it in a more conservative manner.
Furthermore, China has another "Economic Magic power" that US never had.
China central government owns every inch of the land in China, legally and physically. Its citizens only has 70 years of lease to properties they owned, which makes Chinese government the biggest "Landlord" in the world.
If they convert that into Balance Sheet and turn it into "Financial Liquidity Asset", no country in the world can beat that.
Hence, Chinese economy will never Collapse, never ever.
Something
This guy is long winded..
Protectionism is all good and fine but know that it goes BOTH ways! Law of Unintended Consequences. It will only hurt the developed West b/c the global South remains a huge , not yet tapped, market that will buy as low rates! The West will suffer for as long as the South continues to develop and fill in the gap, then it will gradually level out.
😂😂 Although China's nominal GDP is th 2nd highest in the world, its per capita GDP is very low. However this is a blessing in disguise because what this means is that if the productivity of the Chinese worker increases to only half that the USA, China's GDP will be twice that of the USA since it's population is 4 times as big. When a worker's productivity is very high as seen in those of the western countries, it is extremely difficult to increase any further.
Anyway in terms of Purchasing Power Parity GDP, China's PPP GDP of $34 trillion is already way ahead of the USA whose PPP GDP is only $27 trillion.
That isn't how you count productivity. You count productivity from the value of the goods produced in comparison to its cost to produce it. You don't count it from the worker's wages' perspective or GDP per capita. A western truck driver paid 100k USD a year is not more productive than an eastern factory manager paid 30 000 USD a year.
A western truck worker paid $100,000 per year will have $100,000 per year to spend and consumption is a part in the calculation of the nominal GDP !😂
nominal GDP is a "flawed measure". The real measure of an economy is GDP by PPP. In 2016 China already became the #1 economy.
100k in the US is not much. 30k in many parts of China gives you a better life then the truck driver making 100k in America.@@colombard140
The GDP hype in Western World was backed by higher value in USD as a currency.
Once De-Dollarisation happened and took away its fake nominal values, US economy will shrink to its real core.
Besides, average Americans are slow, stubborn and lazy, there is no "Productivity" at all.
The west want to be independent of China which also makes China Independent of the west . That's like shooting yourself in the foot. 😅 😂
Thanks again for your information and analysis
You are very correct. 他们搬起石头砸自己的脚。
Why would we do business with someone who steals our tech and wants to destroy us?
@@Lim-212 Why would we do business with someone who steals our tech and wants to destroy us?
US market only contribute 3.1% small to china GDP.
Combined with EU its only 6.6% small.
Most of china market is global south.
great points! I believe real innovation should be originated from the reality and be applied in the reality!
Be sure this economy has reached such a height that it will never collapse rather will scale newer and newer heights.
Perfect, this is a clear and fair economical analyses.
According to my monetary finance learning, could I consider it as a situation: China is in trouble with inner-cycle cash flow bcz of low income and consuming willing, but western countries are in trouble with inner production and inflation bcz of Fed's selfishly, irresponsibly rate hiking and Russia-Ukraine war?
it looks like engineering ingenuity in processes (eg. the standard container reference) is more important to economic development than highfalutin, massively expensive, threshold of science innovation.
Do people really expect second largest economy to collapse overnight and the world can get away with it?
I agree we need protect self industry under some conditions. But those conditions should be well regulated otherwise it could abuse to hurt free trade.
Yes collapsing the US ECONOMY Is collapsing 😅
Your words make me have a good tea break.
Slow cooker with timing function! Cool 😎
My first thought to the answer of the question was 'cuz western media says it's collapsing.‘
China:
Monday Wednesday Friday :COLLAPSE😂😂😂
Tuesday Thursday Saturday :THREAT😂😂😂
How about sunday?
@@fdazda3212 island fun time
In today's current global environment of wars and unilateral sanctions China's 5%plus growth is alot higher than many if not all Western countries.
You forgot the add the minus sign in front of the 5.2%
Go check how much drop in foreign investment. With that drop there was still 5% , how does it make any sense.
All western propaganda china is doing all right and will continue to grow,unlike the west which will continue downwards😊😊😊
The economy of the EU, UK, US, Canada and Australia have steadily increased for the last 50 years and despite slow growth, are on tract to keep expanding due to innovation and technology. Western GDP may relatively decline but not absolute, meaning their high standard of living will only increase. Thinking it goes downwards shows ignorance
Your anti-West sentiments are duly noted.
Chinese real estate bubble was not crashed by US like it did on Japan. That made huge difference. Chinese still has good control on its economy. US can't benefit from Chinese economic downturn. That just drove the Wall Street bankers crazy.
Our beloved Gordon Chang is screaming while watching this video.
It's a large country w. a complete supply chain, huge domestic market and hardworking and modest people, shaped both by natural tendencies and gov's pressures. Protesting is not allowed and media is tightly controled, so you won't see chaotic scenes leaking out, although many videos of business and people struggling can be found online.
Trust, it is collapsing, just like it has been in the past 2 decades
Ah, now I understant, Yellen went to China to offer help to China's treausery
Sure
No, she went to China purrly for Chinese outstanding cuisines. 😂😁
Well who the fuck said it was??
❤ protection is necessary?
Well, its more of a debt problem that will make them hit a recession than anything else. Internally, local governments are struggling with a lot of debt. This isn't to mention that 25% of their GDP was fueled by real estate, which was the primary funding source for most municipal governments in China. The export thing is actually quite misleading conclusion. If export decreases, than they can only rely on internal consumption to maintain the same economic growth. But if domestic consumption decreases along with export, then the economy won't grow. Even if they want to shift entirely to tech innovation, so it makes up and replaces the real estate sector (which is how municipalities get their funding), this would still take decades.
Long - long, term, they might recover and eventually make a pivot, but in the short term, without changing their domestic debt problem its unlikely to see any real recovery unless they just straight out print money to service existing debt, which would end up causing inflation, which would decrease domestic consumption even more (especially since none of this money would reach the consumers and is only used to essentially bail out municipal debt).
This is quite honestly a long term problem that they have to deal with, or it will be impossible to prop up their GDP numbers like it is now. Their tech advantage is not the problem, it can easily be corrected in a command market. Consumer spending is also not a hard thing to fix. The biggest problem is the unmanageable municipal debt.
China's low-end manufacturing industry is shifting, and this part is for American artificial underwear. But in high-end manufacturing, that's quite good. Since the beginning of this year, the sales of high-end industrial equipment in our company have been very good. The R&D department has been working overtime for five months continuously, and the orders are too many to finish. The performance of our products completely crushes the Germans.
Interesting take on china. Can certainly agree with most points mentioned. However, what will the effect be of the demographic change in the population of china? Further, what are the macro economic implications of the current mismatch of the labour skills in the Chinese labour markets (a lot of graduates but more manufacturing jobs are required atm)?
Robotics. That's been their latest 'catch-up' focus. Although some people have argued that the robotics isn't to replace Chinese workers, but it's to replace western workers. I think it's a bit of two birds with one stone.
@@teac117 Point taken though the question will be how to address consumption. Export problems are on the horizon.
@@davidscholz7489 The BRI is meant to de-risk export venues. It's not just a resource grab. Training expats helps raise the standard of living to create a sink for the exports.
Teşekkürler.
Is not that we don't believe in free markets... well... it is, buuuut, we say its not.
The first 2 minutes, discussing productivity growth inefficiency, has me thinking one thing only:
"Oh, my home country of Canada is screwed, aren't we? That's, like, the exact thing we've been repeatedly told we suck at." Doesn't even matter if I believe any of the rest of the video; what matters is that the long term drivers for my own country sort of suck atm. Hmm.
Rotisserie China chicken 🍗 is quite salivating 😂
It's not that we don't believe in free trade, but we only believe in it when we're on the winning side.
The United States sanctions may be able to stop China in its tracks, but these policies are more damaging to the development of the United States and the global economy. I don't think it is possible for manufacturing to return to the United States because the profits from manufacturing do not meet the expectations of Wall Street, and financial capital is invested in manufacturing.
It is the USD that needs value endorsement, not Chinese industry. The more USD FED prints, the more centralized manufacturing it needs to assure USD's purchasing power.Modern, super-large-scale manufacturing leastways need stable and unlimited supply of 3 things: 1, clean water, 2, electricity and 3, population of engineers/ skilled workers . Putting these 3 factors into consideration, the day China left/got kicked from, whatsoever, the SWIFT and rejected the USD would be the day USD collapse. The main reason that China didn't do such move together with Russia, I personly believe is that China still benifits from current USD system and Chinese ruling class had put too much wealth in it.
Where is Gordon Chang? Is he dead by now?
because our people work hard. simple
Too bad young people can't even find jobs. High youth unemployment in China.
@@Xero15there are plenty of jobs in China, just less jobs that young graduates feel they are entitled to. Since there are so many educated youth, competition is high for high skilled jobs.
Simply working hard does not protect against recessions and economic hardship. Do you think hardworking Americans could prevent the 2008 housing crisis?
What is going to happen in China to raise consumer confidence and generate more domestic demand? The real estate continues to be a drag and there is resistance in many countries in accepting more Chinese exports. To do that they would have to reduce their manufacturing base further. Something with de-risking will be difficult. As he says China has had it's day of easy economic growth.
As an economist, why does he believe in China's official numbers?
Americans completely overestimate the power of ordering underwear for China.
It would be untimely if China's economy collapses too soon. Gordon Chang plans to publish a couple more books on this topic.
I know. Because they invested heavily all over. The global. Fee scour. It’s just matter of thine
Their population decreasing hence rate of growth will decrease with time, but per capita will increase, and future is of ai and robotics and they are developing in that field hence become high income research based country, with no addiction of game, porn and western standard of sm their youth are growing much better than western youth,
“With no addition to games” where all the news some gamer played for several days and died are all coming from China. “With no addition to porn” where there are dozens of millions less females than males and there is even a special lonely men day celebrated across China by aged men who know they will never be able to marry and have kids.
Sino Collapsology is a well-funded discipline.
What do they know?
Yes China economy is collapsing toward the ceiling by 5.2% this quarter. And German economy is growing .4% toward the ground.
Strange with the very last point you make with free trade don’t hear the economist say that when the west is on an upper hand.
pure bravery to say positive things about china
As if there is an absence of positive things about China in the Western media?
Me too, the Chinese will pick-up the taps whenever ccp asks the people to obey?
Because our elite is not rule by election compagn speech false promesse but KPI evaluation like private company, they are very skilled.
China can be still fast developping in next 30 years ,as the per capital GDP personally is still not high ,there is still huge gap for China developing fast for next few decades , frankly speaking
it's been reverse-collapsing for 4 decades, LOL
if you still asking why it's not collapsing, it's better to take some pills before sleep
it's already collapsed, and is on life support now until all the money dries up
Experts from USA/Euro : China is collapsing
same experts USA/Euro:China is not collapsing,
Same USA thinktank. :Why China over-capacity in productions
Delusions rarely make reality conform to them
1960s 6 kids per woman, then 1 child 1 family policy with an extremely high girls abortion rate. Now that most of folks moved into cities and kids are no longer contributors into agriculture or whatever the peasant activities but rather are significant resources recipients families are no longer able to allow many kids even with all the legal restrictions lifted. The fertility rate in China is 1.15. Now still productive labour forces will be unproductive in a couple of decades. There are to be replaced by several times smaller generations. Not quite sure it is something amazing for any economy feeding tonnes of old people per each working person. Just don’t tell me those elderly folks who worked 12 hours a day, 6 days a week in awful conditions are still be working efficiently in their 70s and 80s.
These critic's are very disappointed after so many prediction .
The reason is quite simple Western Economists, Politicians, anti-China governments, and their obedient MSM view China's economy through Western theory and standards or with a pair of jaundiced eyes. But the Chinese System is totally different from the West.....written by @yu_jd5jg
Yes, the current economy is due to consumption -- high debt and savings fuelled consumption in America and low consumption in China due to the real estate shock. These will soon pass.
Saying is believing.
it don't collapse its just having hard time and generally speaking Chan's econmy is slowing
There’s so much spare capacity. So much unemployment.
The creator dares not to mention Taiwan as a better example of moving to high-income countries. Since Taiwan shares similar culture with China. He just followed Chinese ways of bullying Taiwan.
China 🇨🇳 😃✌️
U make cars ships smartphones and so on will not cause collapse. Print money,financial tools will lead to collapse
wow ! There is so much wrong about what he says I had to stop watching. What a shame. There is "big think" and this is tiny think. Just two reasons: it is all about the resources. That is why China is growing now and there are no limits. And all of Asia is cooperating now.
Still the only world factory.
It is but its funny that people are desperate to pretend that it isnt
American economy is flying!
My grandma told my parents China is collapsing when I'm still inside my mom's womb. And now I'm 40.
It’s not about believing in the free market or not. It’ 's about whether China, not a free market, should be permitted to continuously dump its overproduced goods into the world. China worsens the already unsustainable global production systems.
western media told me the China economic had been collapsing for 30 years.
Are you trying to imitate Boris Johnson or Javier Milei?
Your theory is not correct
专业
Westerners don’t care about their economy,focus on political issues