What to Expect with Home Prices This Fall
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 ก.ย. 2024
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Home prices have held steady in the first half of 2024, driven by a balance of moderate demand and slowly rising inventory. Will prices remain strong into the fall, or are there bargains for homebuyers on the horizon?
Watch the replay of our July 18, 2024 webinar with Altos President Mike Simonsen, who'll share all the latest data on the fast-changing housing market. He’ll touch on what’s happening with mortgage rates, discuss which signals he's watching for price movement, and look at other leading indicators pointing towards continued rising inventory in the second half of the year. He'll also dive into the latest data for local markets across the country.
Topics will include:
- What to expect with home prices
- An update on inventory, and where this is likely headed
- How mortgage rate fluctuations are shaping the market
- Where the latest pending sales data is pointing
- How to talk to buyers and sellers about the data right now
… and more.
Altos Research is the premier resource for real-time real estate data. We provide weekly market statistics, analysis and reporting for 99% of the zip codes in the U.S., helping real estate professionals, investors, financial institutions, and their clients make better-informed decisions.
Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research
A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.
Please like this video and subscribe to our channel if you want to see more videos like this.
You can also follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights:
/ altosresearch
/ mikesimonsen
See you next week!
#realestate #realestatemarket #housingmarket
Altos Research is now part of HW Media! Check out their channel at @HousingWire for more housing market insights.
Because so many people overpaid for homes even while loan rates were low, I believe there will be a housing catastrophe because these people are in debt. If housing costs continue to drop and, for whatever reason, they can no longer afford the property and it goes into foreclosure, they have no equity since, even if they try to sell, they will not make any money. I believe that many individuals will experience this, especially given the impending mass layoffs and rapidly rising living expenses.
Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.
You're correct! With the help of an investment coach, I was able to diversify my 450K portfolio across markets and produce slightly more than $830K in net profit from high dividend yield equities, ETFs, and bonds.
Would you mind providing details on the advisor who helped you?
Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
This reference seems valid.. Just looked up her full name on my browser and found her webpage without sweat, over 15 years of experience is certainly striking! very much appreciate this.
Living in Oklahoma here and the housing market here over the last 7-8 years is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Homes that were bought for $130K in 2015 are now being sold for $590k. I’m talking about tiny, disgusting, poorly built 950 square foot shit boxes in quite mediocre neighborhoods. Then you’ve got Better, average sized homes in nicer neighborhoods that were $300K+ 10 years ago selling for $750k+ now. Wild times.
A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time!
Many people lack this kind of information, which is unfortunate. I understand why some people panic. It can be hard without enough information. I have been earning over $51k passively by investing through an advisor, and it doesn’t take much work. The economy’s performance doesn’t matter; good wealth managers always make profits.
That does make a lot of sense, unlike us, you seem to have the Market figured out. Who is this consultant?
“Iynne Marie Stella”, is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I copied her whole name and pasted it into my browser; her website appeared immediately, and her qualifications are excellent; thank you for sharing.
I think it's time to make it more appealing for potential buyers. Real estate can be quite the rollercoaster! the stress and uncertainty are getting to me. I think I'll cut rents to attract potential buyers and exit the market, but i'm at crossroads if to allocate the entire $680k liquidity value to my stock portfolio?
"Overall, buyers hold a lot of the cards right now, and sellers are having to give out more concessions to close a deal." All the best, buying on sale is actually one of the best ways to invest in stocks, and advisors are ideally suited for such task
Until the Fed clamps down even further I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now with financial markets will be best you seek a fin-professional with fiduciary responsibilities who knows about mortgage-backed securities for proper guidance.
this sounds considerable! think you know any advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
Video starts @ 3:17
Im on the sideline (looking to upsize) and 6.75% would have no effect on my likelihood to buy.
Home prices have doubled in 4 years. A .5% drop in interest rates won’t do squat. Still holding on to my cash for better opportunities.
Anyone thinking 6 percent rates will ignite buyers...go to a mortgage calculator and see the difference..negligible given current prices...maybe if prices were 15 percent lower. It's like a hundred bucks cheaper for me which is nothing
They try and keep hope alive.
Thank you..your comment is on point
Even if it’s at 3% why tf would anyone still buy something valued at 200k for 500k?!!!
Boy, I sure have to disagree with 6.5% interest rates causing significant market action. Maybe if prices were still going up or even holding steady, but not at the threshold of huge declines.
Yes, it’s never that simple.
That's very good observation.I don't see people buying as home places are in decline It's kind of cycle of a spiral down...
Yup. Can have the opposite affect video is describing. People will be eager to sell and move when rates go down.
Don’t over complicate things, rates drop, demand up, rates up, demand drops
@@jkim356 Not so fast. Rates were 6.5% just several months ago. And demand was dropping. Before that 6%, and demand was dropping.
Love the new "percent of new listings sold immediately" chart 👍
The buyer is tapped out. Everything costs so much more than a few years ago and years of paying these prices for everything has caused buyers to run out of money. FICO scores lower is just the beginning. Lower prices coming and coming fast. If you are thinking of selling, you should put it on now and at a reasonable price. Buyers are rebelling
Classic credit cycle at play. Except this one was even more manufactured than others. They used every tool in the box to pull forward years of profits. They crammed a decade's worth of demand into four years with impossibly low rates...now there's an air pocket because everyone is broke and/or fully indebted. Who could have known? I call it Wimpy-nomics...I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today...
idk... my market is flooded and nobody is pending! 30-90 day Zillow map is BLEEDING RED
Are you in FL, TX, or somewhere else?
@@hankduncan2665 Ohio
Mike, love the videos. But it’s not accurate when you say “higher for longer than anyone predicted”. That’s not true. It’s higher for longer than the mainstream predicted. Big difference.
When he says "anyone", please remember that this is a fairly niche channel that is generally aimed at people who are already IN the Real Estate game. So replace "anyone" with "my peeps" and it makes more sense!
@@CaptainCaveman1170 yes, only people with severe wishful thinking thought rates would be lower by now
@@seanoconnor8138 They don't understand that rates didn't jump up for no reason, they went up in response to excess inflation. That situation doesn't resolve itself pleasantly...unless this time is different!
@@CaptainCaveman1170and if rates decline significantly, they will also do so in response to the economy. They will not decrease without economic hardship on most buyers
Avg cost of a new home in central Texas is $425k. Avg median household income in Texas is $72k. See anything wrong with this? The numbers do not add up.
prices need to come down
Thanks for the review on Atlanta, where I live. I’m in the market for a new home. What I have experienced is builders are becoming teasingly more aggressive with their incentives. Sadly, however, new construction quality in the Atlanta area is poor, based on other news homes I’ve purchased in Ohio, Illinois, and Utah. The few quality builders in the area are outside of my price range. So I will wait about a year longer and perhaps move to another market with quality construction in my price range.
556 Olympic Way, Acworth, GA 30102
Take a look at it.
I am also planning to buy one north of Atlanta. Would you suggest some good builders?
There will soon be a giant spike in inventory. Due to a giant spike in job loss as morrgage rates baaaaaarely even edge down.
If rates go down prices are staying high which does nothing. Rates need to be higher and price crash for sales to pickup. All the people that wanted to overpay already bought.
Am I missing something? That coming soon inventory number at 24:00 looks like a hockey stick after the 4th of July
Doesn’t a lot of inventory mean they are overbuilt combined with no interested buyers?
Right. Sellers not meeting buyers where they are.
Long term inventory in the US was well over 2M homes. We are still far away from that. And with a steadily growing population.
@@peterbedford2610 And with a steadily growing group who buy up the homes for STVRs and elder care homes?
@@peterbedford2610 Inventory for sale is low, but the absolute quantity of structures isn't. The narrative is that we are structurally undersupplied, but we are not, there's just a listing stalemate being caused by a variety of factors. I feel that people betting on those factors being permanent are taking a huge gamble, basically betting against History and mean reversion at the same time. The idea that in America, builders would leave money on the table by not meeting the demand for structures, for years on end, seems ridiculous to me. Yet that's what gets rammed down everyone's throats by the media and NAR, etc.
Atlanta home prices will never crash!
(:
Thanks for the video!
great data put together !
6% Mortgage rates will get a ton of inventory on the market... ppl are pinched on home owner costs they didn't fully figure in... insurance rates up, property taxes up... that 6% is 'close enough' to get ppl to dump and rent or downsize...
Seems like there is way to much focus here are on 1/2 point or 1 point shifts in the interest rate, when what will determine the housing market is how the job market is doing. If the fed starts dropping interest rates, that normally signals a recession and that will cause inventory to rise and prices to drop. If it is a bad recession, then prices will drop a lot.
9:20 Wow, this chart tells me that all of the "inventory is skyrocketing " experts are wrong. If you look pre-pandemic, these are the actual numbers we were at in 2019. So there is no new norm, we are just re-adjusting back to prepandemic levels. Very interesting. Thank you.
Florida may have high inventory but they are building like crazy in Central Florida. That's new inventory.
Good stuff.
With many southern states seeing record price cuts, i think its only a matter of time before something starts to give. We have a housing crash every 20 years, so we are due. The one we are scheduled for has been halted by frivolous government money printing and spending. Not looking to buy anytime soon, going to continue to wait
Well we wouldn’t be due until 2028 if that’s the case.
@@user-zo2ge3oe8d Its not a doctor’s appointment, your cant schedule a recession for an exact date 💀
Hoa's and rising insurance costs...
Re: Inventory: Listings are definitely rising everywhere (slowly but surely)...but LA county and parts of Orange county seem like they are not joining the inventory party. Statistically impossible levels of new inventory in some places, rate lock-in effect or no. There's something very fishy going on there, and I'm not surprised because it's LA!
For the past 2 years we had max 5500 homes ( all type including condos, mobile and 55+). Now we are sitting at 6600. So there is an improvement. But chinese nationals are buying home to dump their money and keeping those houses empty. I have seen people bringing 1.3 mil cash offers when they don't know a single word of English. That lady was using an app to translate what she was saying. Another lady bought 400k worth of house for 700k last year and nobody is living there yet.
I thought the Evergrande crash will help us but it bit us in the ass.
@@mbzinfpt I agree but the deals must be happening before they hit the MLS because the "new" inventory levels in some places is mathematically impossible. I would know, I've been watching many neighborhoods in and around SoCal closely for about 20 years...and I can also "just tell" when something isn't right. It's not "just" the lock-in effect, because life still happens.
@@CaptainCaveman1170 certainly off market deals are there still we can see a small improvement. And this improvement is happening in the middle of the home buying season.
People need housing, those with 3% loans will be better off owning an underwater house than renting.
Seems like I can never get good info on Indiana
Back in 2008-12 we never saw a big reduction in home prices in the Kansas City area.
what is the percentage in SC for "months of inventory"?
All I hear is a cap on inventory, kind of bias imho!
Michigan governor announced 6:23 50 % raise over 5 years on property taxes.
Up
Who makes money when home prices are inflated? Realtors, the county or community for taxes......I cannot believe how inflated property values are in south central Alaska. 1/2 million for a 2100 sq. foot house. Blackrock/Vanguard and the WEF are involved in this racket you can bet.
My home was bought at 340k...estimated at 370k 1 yr later...if I sell, I make that money
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I'm looking forward to a potential housing crisis to make affordable purchases when I sell some properties in 2025. Additionally, I'm considering investing in stocks as a backup plan. Any suggestions on the optimal timing for making these investments? I've been noticing significant trading earnings, but there are concerns about the market being unstable and going through a dead cat bounce. Could you shed some light on why this market phenomenon occurs?
Investing in real estate and stocks might be a wise choice, particularly if you have a sound trading plan that can get you through profitable days.
You're not making mistakes; you just don't have the know-how to profit in a tough market. In such challenging times, only highly experienced individuals who went through the 2008 financial crisis can anticipate making significant profits.
Lately, I've been thinking about reaching out to consultants for advice. I'm at a stage where I could benefit from some guidance, but I'm uncertain if their services would truly be beneficial.
Desiree Ruth Hoffman, my CFA, is well-respected in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her qualifications. With her extensive experience, she serves as an invaluable asset for those seeking guidance in the financial market.
Thank you for this tip. I must say, Desiree appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her online page, I thoroughly went through her resume, and I must say, it was quite impressive. I reached out to her, and I have booked a session with her.
Prices have to drop. That simple.
Prices will only shoot up ...if people lose their jobs, then maybe
@@jimmyjay689 your right BUT if they cut rates next month prices will shoot up. They will do anything to make Harris look good. Socialism will be the killer sadly. All we can do is slow it down. Property taxes will continue to increase... Including ALOT more.
You violate the 3 minute rule, which states that you need to come to the point within that time. I exit at that point
holy spam in the comments
Housing wire seems to agree that low 6% rates will reignite activity.
6% mortgage rates are only coming if the bond market senses that a recession is here. The Fed just follows the bond market's signals. So yes, reignite due to lower rates, but de-ignite due to rampant job loss. So rates are not a savior, only a radical increase in incomes can save the bubble from popping.
Rampant job loss... No one is saying that
@@peterbedford2610 Everyone who is an expert in inverted yield curves is predicting that.
First