Home builders trigger major Recession Warning. Supply spikes to 2008 levels.
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 5 ก.ค. 2024
- Home builders are reporting the biggest growth in unsold inventory of homes since 2008. With Reuters reporting that the supply on builder lots just hit the highest level in 16 years.
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This is the signal of an imminent housing slowdown and economic recession. Or at least it has been historically. Each of the previous 6 recessions was preceded by a big surge in home builder supply. This is especially true in the housing market in the south, where homes for sale from builders is now at the highest level of all-time.
Even higher than the previous peak in 2006, meaning that states like Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Georgia, and South Carolina could be seeing a major and continuing surge in inventory of homes for sale in coming years.
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While everyone in the mainstream media continues to refer to the "housing shortage", supply on builder lots is now at the highest level since 2008.
This is causing massive inventory spikes in many parts of America, particularly in the South.
Head to www.reventure.app and search the home value and inventory trends in your market to stay up to date on what's happening.
If u need help with reventure app in Miami let me know!
I run / operate / develop several platforms for entrprenuers like yourself, based in Miami!
I think you should move to Jacksonville. That's where my husband and I are thinking of moving to from Southwest Florida.
I feel like that's the new up and coming place where there's going to be a lot of new investment.
It also has several benefits that the rest of the major cities don't. Which is that it is the second oldest city in the country after St Augustine, so it's really got this amazing architecture and the old school layouts of the city rather than this grid situation that's so obnoxious. It also has a really up and coming downtown, a bunch of really cool historic areas, and a bunch of really cool beach towns.
And furthermore it is not stuck down the end of nowhere like an island like Miami and Southwest Florida are. It is right there next to Georgia and is very accessible to get to the mountains in the Carolinas, in Georgia, or in Tennessee. So it's really good for people who want to be snowbirds but don't really want to travel all that far.
Plus it does also have the benefit that it's only 45 minutes from St Augustine. So you really get to live in both cities which is really nice.
It's also still very close to Orlando as well. So it's really quite accessible to a lot of other places and it has some really inexpensive great deals even now before the prices have crashed.
Also, I love your videos. Peter Schiff doesn't seem to be talking about real estate as much this time around, so I really was looking for someone to fill that niche, and you have done a fantastic job. Thank you so much for all the work you're doing. I think you're going to save a lot of people a lot of money and we all really appreciate it 🎉
Bc Peter Schiff has been calling dollar collapse which would hyperinflate assets like real estate.
Question, was anyone calling 2008 GFC on yt? No, Even Mike burry took years and kept his mouth shut. Today? Every 🤡🤡on social media calling collapse....
It's not a housing shortage, it's an affordable housing shortage.
A recession is currently the "most likely consequence for the economy," and I cannot fathom becoming a victim of circumstances, with inflation at a four-decade high. In two years, I plan to retire, and my target retirement fund is $967,000. How can I assure this? What steps can I take?
My money was almost wiped out entirely in 2008. I took out my money and invested it with my wife's wealth manager. I haven't caught up to her profits over the years, but I do earn more. Haha
This is great. I started investing with a wealth manager in 2020, too. I hated myself for a long time because I didn't know I could do that. Funny how I have quit my day job, because my profits cover for every living expense.
this is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Her name is “Annette Christine Conte” can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since l need all the assistance l can get. I just scheduled a caII.
More and more people might face a tough time in retirement. Low-paying jobs, inflation, and high rents make it hard to save. Now, middle-class Americans find it tough to own a home too, leaving them without a place to retire.
The increasing prices have impacted my plan to retire at 62, work part-time, and save for the future. I'm concerned about whether those who navigated the 2008 financial crisis had an easier time than I am currently experiencing. The combination of stock market volatility and a decrease in income is causing anxiety about whether I'll have sufficient funds for retirement.
This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over $800,000.
How can I reach this person?
'Carol Vivian Constable’ maintains an online presence. Just make a simple search for her name online.
I checked Carol up out of curiosity and i must say i am impressed by her Credentials. i emailed her already, waiting on her response.
Because so many people overpaid for homes even while loan rates were low, I believe there will be a housing catastrophe because these people are in debt. If housing costs continue to drop and, for whatever reason, they can no longer afford the property and it goes into foreclosure, they have no equity since, even if they try to sell, they will not make any money. I believe that many individuals will experience this, especially given the impending mass layoffs and rapidly rising living expenses.
I advise you to invest in stocks to balance out your real estate, Even the worst recessions offer wonderful buying opportunities in the markets if you're cautious. Volatility can also result in excellent short-term buy and sell opportunities. This is not financial advice, but buy now because cash is definitely not king right now!
Soon, cheap homes won't be cheap anymore because prices today will look like dips tomorrow. I think inflation will cause panic until the Fed tightens its grip even more. You can't just pull the band-aid Off half way. Booms and busts are the ups and downs of the economy, and they will affect any investments. If you are at a crossroads or need honest advice on the best steps to take right now, it is best to get counsel from a financial expert.
Recently, I have been exploring the possibility of consulting with advisors. As a mature individual, I am in need of guidance, but I am curious to know how truly impactful their services can be?
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Sharon Marissa Wolfe for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
Thanks for the advice. The search for your coach was simple. I investigated her well before using her services. Considering her résumé, she appears competent.
I had problem comprehending trading in general. I tried watching other TH-cam trading channels, but they made the concepts more complicated. I was almost giving up until when i discovered content and explain everything in detail. The videos are easy to follow
I've been making a lot of looses trying to make profit trading. I thought trading on a demo account is just like trading the real market. Can anyone help me out or at least advise me on what to do?
Trading on a demo account can definitely feel similar to the real market, but there are some differences. It's important to remember that trading involves risks and it's normal to face looses sometimes. One piece of advice is to start small and gradually increase your investments as you gain more experience and confidence. It might also be helpful to seek guidance from experienced traders or do some research on different trading strategies.
I will advise you should stop trading on your own if you keep losing.
If you can, then get a professional to trade for you i think that way your assets are more secure
I'd recommend Cassandra Robert , her profit is great even when there's a dip
I remember in 2007 when I was working in real estate seeing people buy homes new from builders with the intention of selling before close of escrow to a new buyer for profit. The crash was so brutal and fast that I remember seeing a lot of these units foreclosed on with the builder plastic still on the carpet.
Most people find it difficult to handle a fall since they are used to bull markets, but if you know where to look and how to maneuver, you can make a size-able profit. Depending on how you intend to enter and exit, yes.
The enduring US stock market bull run evokes a mix of fear and excitement, presenting opportunities with insight, resulting in $780k gains in the past ten months, utilizing a portfolio advisor for a well-defined strategy.
Being heavily liquid, I'd rather not reinvent the wheel. Since this strategy works for you, how can I contact your advisor?
Finding financial advisors like Amber Dawn Brummit who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
As the housing crisis poses a significant risk of triggering a global market crash or financial crisis,it could send shockwaves through the stock markets worldwide. I’m worried about my investment of over $600K stocks. Is this a time to consider diversifying my portfolios?
If the housing market takes a hit, it might lead to reduced consumer spending and overall economic instability. I advice you consult with a professional about your investment portfolio to enable you to take advantage of the downturns.
The housing market has always had its ups and downs, but it's true that this time feels different. Having a portfolio manager will save you a lot in the market. My coach has helped me expand my portfolio by 200% over the past few months.
this is all new to me, where do I find a fiduciary, can you recommend any?
There are many independent advisors to choose from. But I work with monica Mary strigle and we've been working together for almost four years and she's fantastic. You could check her if she meets your requirements. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with
Thank you for this share . It was easy to find monica, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
It is difficult to make exact projections for the housing market as it is still unclear how quickly or to what degree the Federal Reserve will reduce inflation and borrowing costs without having a substantial negative impact on demand from consumers for anything from houses to cars.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage rules are getting more difficult, and home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes. For now, get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. If you are at a cross roads or need honest advice on the best moves to take now, it is best to seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
I will be happy getting assistance and glad to get the help of one, but just how can one spot a reputable one?
Well, I chose Sharon Ann Meny as my advisor after her interview on CNBC In 2020. She is SEC regulated with offices in the US and quite frankly a genius with portfolio diversification.
I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an email shortly.
This is a really interesting take on the housing market. People are being impacted by the long-term decline in property prices and the housing market. I recently sold my house in the Sacramento area, and I want to invest my lump-sum profit in the stock market before prices start to rise again. Is now the right moment to buy or not?
Safest approach i feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown. its important to seek the guidance of an expert
It's true that many people underestimate the importance of advisers until their own feelings burn them out. A few summers ago, following an ongoing divorce, I needed a significant push to keep my company afloat. I looked for licensed advisors and found someone with outstanding qualifications. She has contributed to my reserve increasing.
I'd love to work with the same advisor you invested with. How do i align with the person?
Annette Marie Holt is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
This recession should have happened in 2022 but the government printed money and kicked the can
That and they've rigged the unemployment numbers just to make biden look good. And the "job" creation is mainly within the government sector as opposed to have manufacturing and other jobs in private sector.
Possibly, but this looks more like people who moved to the south returning to where they moved from. Locals can't afford the prices that the coastal buyers post-pandemic paid, so prices need to drop to get back to an affordable rate for the local populations. $800k was fine when people paid in cash, but with a $100k income, having to take a loan, and crazy high insurance and property tax rates in the south, the prices just don't match the local incomes.
Should have happened In 2020, but Trump printed money. Biden is also printing money to kick it down the road. Both are killing us.
@@krakken- Nope, the original poster got it right. People moving back to where they came from accounts for 1-2% of this inventory explosion. What we're seeing is pure fiscal hangover from handing out $6 trillion for "free" that congress had to print out of thin air over 18 months in 2020-2022. It took a while longer than expected, but the math is so much worse now than 2008 bubble in terms of unaffordability relative to median income that we should all really hope for the best for people who don't have at least 12 months of bills saved up in cash, because half of all of those people will lose everything they own. The odds have never been stacked this bad against the people who took out too much mortgage ever in history.
woah, someone on youtube that actually thinks critically. the fed lost control of the interest rate October 2019. cv19 conveniently showed up a month later to cover up the vast amount of money printing they did to save the banks
I dont feel sorry for home builders, realtors or car dealers they are all crooks
Poor man mindset
@@William-ph1xe Gullible mindset
@@William-ph1xeyou must be young
With the quality of the building materials they use today it's truly disgusting how much they charge for a house. These houses won't be standing in 100 years.
I agree 100% and ANYONE who doesn't think a realtor, car dealer or home builder hasn't ripped them off is simply ignorant. Ignorance is bliss. Have someone who really knows look at you sale and they will explain how you overpaid.
It's sad how difficult things have become in the present generation. I was wondering how to utilise some money I had. I used some of it for e-commerce business, but that sank. I'm thinking of how to protect my $300K stock portfolio from decline is my main concern, but I don't really know which way to go.
Yeah, things may be hard right now, but I've come to realize both bear and bull market, recessions and economic boom, all provide opportunities to make high gains, I used to call bluff on folks that bragged about making a fortune from such down-markets until I happened to do so myself
I agree. I've been working with a financial advisor since 2020, and I return up to 15k every month, and I don't even have to lift a finger. Although I also think the reason I make this much is because I started with significant capital.
That makes a lot of sense. To be on the safer side and not second guess your market decisions, I’d suggest you reach out to a proper investment adviser for guidance, they’re better equipped at understanding market patterns/movements and adjusting portfolio to match up with these market trends
There are many independent advisors to choose from. But I work with Melissa Elise Robinson and we've been working together for almost four years and she's fantastic. You could pursue her if she meets your requirements. I agree with her.
Thank you so much for your helpful tip! I was able to verify the person and book a call session with her. She seems very proficient and I'm really grateful for your guidance
just sold a property in Texas and I'm thinking to put the cash in stocks, I know everyone is saying its ripe enough, but Is this a good time to buy stocks? How long until a full recovery? How are other people in the same market raking in over $200k gains with months, I'm really just confused at this point.
Yes, a good number of folks are raking in huge 6 figure gains in this downtrend, but such strategies are mostly successfully executed by folks with in depth market knowledge
true, despite having no prior investing knowledge, I started investing before the pandemic and pulled in a profit of approximately 950k that same year. In reality, all I was doing was getting professional advice.
how can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and I am eager to participate. who is the driving force behind your success?
I'd say a little due diligence on "Amber Michelle Smith" truly exceptional..
Thank you for sharing, I must say she appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her web page, I went through her resume and it was quite impressive. I reached out and scheduled
700k for a house in 100 degree humid climate with no trees to shade and in the Stix. Prices are bonkers. Who the hell needs 2600 sq ft to cool/heat and maintain and more importantly....who TF! needs 4 bathrooms?!? 😂
😂😂
🐊🦎🐊🦎
Its the same thing I said, but today's people need theirs own bedroom with bath... otherwise is to far to walk in the house for family member,,,
@@annak5464😂😂😂
@@maxpol007it's all fun and games until you have to take a 💩 and all of the crappers in your home are pre occupied
You have to be out of your mind to buy a new build with an HOA in 2024. No way in hell would I buy their garbage.
100%, HOAs are horrible
Not a lot of options near cities with high paying jobs
Totally brain dead.
I was born in silicon valley. in 1942 I started building houses in the bay area in 1969 and watched what has happened. The bay area is run by teachers and democrats.. When people want to build a house the gov thinks now is the time to rob them and they do In 1974 I bought 3 acres for 7500 and built a 3000' for 20 dollars sq ft today it costs 600 a sq ft I got my permit in 2 weeks today I have been trying to get a permit for a similar house for 2 1/2 years It is gov it has destroyed the US
HOA is for the people
That like other people to telling them what they can and can't do .
HOA is not for smart thinker . Why do I want someone to control me .
I want to live a stress free life .no way Jose on HOA.
After the mess we had in 2007-2010 I can't believe they inflated another bubble with super low rates and loose money. We never learn from our mistakes.
Super low rates and loose money?
Must be nice living on earth 2
You been living under a rock the last 20 yrs. @@markpaperhanger2481
Why not. Everyone at top gets bailedout. It will keep happening
Yes, that makes the elite richer. That's of course who our government & the federal reserve works for
WE DO, but THEY DON'T
The housing market is inflated and oversaturated with homes being on the market with astronomical price tags just stagnant for months. It is very clear that or generation will be likely one of the most devastating bubble pops in modern history. Seeking best possible ways to grow 250k into $1m+ and get a good house for retirement, I'm 48.
I don't think here is the place for personalized investment guidance. However, I suggest consulting with a reliable advisor like Azul to ensure appropriate retirement planning.
I’m closing in on retirement, and I have benefitted much from using a financial advisor. I didn’t really start early, so I knew the compound interest of index fund investing would not work for me. Funny how I pulled in over 80% profit than some of my peers who have been investing for many years. Maybe you should consider this too
I've been considering getting one, but haven't been proactive about it. Can you recommend your advisor? I could really use some assistance.
'Kristin Amber Landis' is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.
My neighbor is in the drywall business. I asked his wife how busy he was and she replied "He's been off the last three days, there's no work." Not good to see it happening next door.
You might be living in a ghost town.
In Houston we have boat loads of work on our hands
In Florida?
Yea but that's Texas😂@@bhupesh0111
Good thing my husband works for industrial construction
Where?
A million bucks for a tract home in Loxahatchee is nuts. I don’t care how much you want to live in Palm Beach County, that is nuts.
That only shows that the dollar has become totally worthless. A dollar is now worth a few Pennies
Couldn't agree more.. The area where I live in Florida they are building Tens of THOUSANDS of unaffordable homes...
Thanks for the comment!
@@edubbs3528 Dude they have places in Florida new construction for 250K
my grandfather bought in Wellington in the early 80's dirt cheap. Now you have to be millionaire lol
It’s insane you can’t buy a home for these prices.
It feels like everybody has 300k for down payment
Or they can swing 4500 a month everybody makes 300k a year????? Something don’t add up.
If you team up with 3 or 4 level headed people you can do it. They make houses big enough.
@@GriftospherequalitycontrolWho TF would want to buy a house if your goal is to have 3-4 roommates?
@@kcor4imagine that being the solution. Buy a house and then get roommates to cover the difference. I think it would be better for everyone if house prices were 2.5X the median household income like they used to be.
If they can put up that kind of money now and buy a house they are probably the biggest idiots out there
@@Griftospherequalitycontrol . Dumbest comment of the day! Congrats!
A new house at the zip code 76002 was sold at an inflated price of $180k in 2006 and was foreclosed by the bank and sold for $118k in 2010. The same house was sold for $328k in 2022 for an investor and has been unable to rent it for $2800/month.
CRY ME A RIVER !
😂😂
Excellent!
I live in Huntsville Alabama where they have been building new homes and apartments like there’s no end in sight. I don’t understand how builders think this is sustainable. To me it seems like they’ve overbuilt but that’s not stopping them. I can’t imagine how this can end well. They’ve ruined the charm of the town.
Miami charm is also
Especially when millions of illegals leave
A lot of the escapees from Florida need housing in Alabama.
@@torsten6777no, the massive overbuilding is spot on. We are headed to disaster. Municipal leadership has made grave mistakes with the constant approval of developments. It’s a disgrace- as a realtor, I refuse to sell the new construction and tell all my clients to wait 3-6 years as the shit hits the fan-unless they have money to burn.
@@hsvkid building for the newcomers and government will subsidize the rents
I think this is going to be region dependent. Florida now has a perception of rising unaffordable insurance costs and people literally trying to abandon their condos at any price.
These factors are gonna drag prices down.
I agree that it’s region dependent especially for Florida the insurance is going up similar to California with the fires ..not all condos in Florida are in areas that fall under the new condo laws..three sorry and up, 30 years or older and 3 miles from the coast..which is most of Miami and south florida. The sales on condos that can demonstrate adequate reserves and structural reports are still in demand given the cost of single family homes .
Definitely region dependent, even within Florida. Miami isnt slowing down
There are also a lot of people that own five or six that shouldn't have bought one. Speculative is Floridas middle name and idiot speculators flock to Floridumb like birds.
@@privateprivate4882I wouldn’t touch a condo with a 10 foot pole right now. HOA and insurance,property tax increases out the ceiling in FL..
Thanks for the comment!
The LAST shoe to fall was employment, and that contraction has started spreading like wildfire as well.
Agree 💯👍 unemployment is the last metric and often follows start of a resession. California is already about 5.2% UE and up for the past year.
Businesses closing at an alarming rate.
Thanks for the comment. I can feel that in Florida. Met lots of people who had been laid off are and are struggling to get by.
I sold an apartment in Springfield and made about $250K. I was frustrated when I only earned $171 in interest from a regular savings account. After doing some research, I was advised to invest in stocks. Are stocks a good point to start from?
While the stock market is promising and can give good ROI, expert guidance is essential for effective portfolio management so you don't get burnt out in the market as it is very volatile.
I opened an online high-yield savings account with 5.12863% interest compounded daily, expecting to get $2,500 in interest on my initial $50,000 at the end of the month. Instead, I only received $420. When I inquired, I was told the interest is calculated daily, which was not clearly stated on the website. My partner advised me to divert into stocks through an advisor, and in just six months, I achieved over 80% capital growth, excluding dividends. Highly recommended!
Pls how can i meet this advis0r? i want someone to help me invest my divorce settlement, It's just being laying around in the bank without much interest.
Melissa Jean Talingdan is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment. She’s really good
Melissa Jean Talingdan
American people SCREWED again from greed ! 😢
YEP...DEMOCRATS GREED...HILLARY¬S GREED!!
BIDEN CRIME FAMILY GREED...ADAM SCHIFF¬S GREED
I left Florida in '23 because of the heat, humidity daily summer storms, terrible traffic,Hurricane Ian and bad food...moved back to Las Vegas
Welcome back
Agreed! Forgot to mention about the horrible Florida healthcare.
News for ya. Vegas will be dead in no less than 10yrs from water drought. U just watch
@ehartsoe you moved away from Florida because of the heat to a hotter city?
At least there is some water in the air if the heat bothers you. In Vegas people's faces age faster.
Made my day as a Las Vegas resident
I moved from Tampa to Santa Clara a few months ago and I’m thinking of purchasing a single family home there, but with real estate prices currently through the roof, is it still a good idea to buy a home or should I invest in stocks for now and just wait for a housing market correction? Looks like NVDA, TSM and AMD and AVGO are strong buys this week.
it’s a personal decision, but according to Forbes, housing activities will remain stagnant for the most part of the year, so maybe hold off a little.
well you could put a downpayment on a home and as well diversify as much as you can into Ai, energy and big pharm. stocks like Pfizer and JnJ, ASML, MLM and S&P 500 ETFs. I’d suggest you go with a managed portfolio, but even those don’t perform so well, so it’s best you reach out to a proper fiduciary to guide you, that’s what works for my spouse and I making a whooping $738k in Q4 last year
I’m an art collector, this is not very new to me but has a nuance to it. Can you assist me?
There are many advisors to choose from. But I work with 'Leah Foster Alderman' and we've been working together for years and she's fantastic.
You could check her if she meets your requirements. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with
The construction industry is completely dead in WA. One major lumber mill recently closed down, the lumber yards are empty and I don't know any carpenters that are still working except for one who works for Boeing. Six out of the 24 homes in my little country community with each home having at least 5 acres are brand new residents. I feel sorry for them because they all purchased at the top of the market in bidding wars. Now one of them is loosing their job in the construction industry with a brand new baby. I hope that they make through OK because that must be very difficult to afford all that they have going. The same thing happened to me in the last housing crash of 2008 but I still had work till 2010. I didn't have any more work so I moved to a different area, rented for two years and then purchased a lot at the bottom of the market and built a debt free home on the nights and weekends without hiring anyone to help me. I did it all by myself except for on concrete day. I recently sold that home at the top of the market after doing a lot line adjustment so that I could keep the other half of my land and am building another home on the other half. The land was free minus the small cost of getting the lot line adjustment. I'm sitting pretty well after I did that and when the market crashes, I will be purchasing a small apartment building. Probably a tenplex or something like that and retire early so that I can purchase a sailboat and sail around the world and still keep my place on the other half of my lot. I'm living in a travel trailer on my land why I'm build so that I can save money rather than pissing my money away on renting. I'm about ready to sell that travel trailer as soon as I get dried in which I'm almost there. All I need is the roof, exterior windows and doors and a working bathroom to move in. I'll finish it up while I'm living in a closed off section so that I don't get my bed dusty. That's the way I've done it several times before.
This is awesome
@@mattvandy6 Thanks man. Hopefully this makes someone think of the possibilities and motivates them to do the same or similar. I'm thinking of purchasing land to build an apartment building or purchasing something already built and rented out. I'll have to wait till the market crashes and see what the prices end up being first.
@@lazydayB2B you “ain’t” making much sense.
I’m in Ohio and the housing market here over the last 7-8 years is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Homes that were bought for $130K in 2015 are now being sold for $590k. I’m talking about tiny, disgusting, poorly built 950 square foot shit boxes in quiet mediocre neighbourhoods. Then you’ve got Better, average sized homes in nicer neighbourhoods that were $300K+ 10 years ago selling for $750k+ now. Wild times.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
Personally, I can connect to that. When I began working with a fiduciary financial counsellor, my advantages were certain. I got into the market early 2019 and the constant downtrends and losses discouraged me so I sold off, got back in Dec 2021 this time with guidance, Long story short, its been 2years now and I’ve gained over a million dollars following guidance from my investment adviser.
This is huge! think you can point me towards the direction of your advisor? been looking at advisory management myself.. seeking ways to invest and make more money with the uncertainty in the economy.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
It's not Florida's heat that's bad. It's the HUMIDITY! Anyone used to drier west coast weather will hate Florida.
Nah…
The mosquitoes and “no see ems”
that’s the worst part of Florida.
FL is a TROPICAL region. Heat and humidity are the norm, doesn't bother me I was born here. Growing up, our house had no AC. It's possible to acclimate but easier to complain I guess. However, the entire state is being paved over! That neighborhood he was in, I'll bet was once pristine forest and woods. Roads, driveways, asphalt. This creates the "Heat Island Effect", everybody should read about that. It's happening and will get hotter yet! If ya can't acclimate, try Alaska! It's always mentioned about tax, HO ins and prices but no ones mentions "utilities"!, all these new homes will require. That's going to go WAY up!
@@zsigzsagFlorida heat sucks, I've been here since 1982. The only reason you acclimated is because your house had no AC when you were growing up, but make no mistake, it's hot and humid here compared to most other parts in the country. 👎
@@TheMadmax0609 It always has been. Going to get hotter just watch.
@@zsigzsag of course it's going to get hotter. 🙄
DO NOT, i repeat DO NOT open an office in California. Thank me later.
I support your message!
@@maxpol007 me too... and I need a new pair of shorts.
Yeah, you really have to top percentile talent in your game, whatever it is in you are doing, just to have a chance in California.
In Phoenix we are having another scorcher this summer. We already hit 118* this year. I have talked to some of my customers, and they are looking to leave. They cannot handle the oven.
The problem is home prices haven't come down at all. People can't afford a home on a single income.
@@stevenwalker4923 … yet.
the idiot sellers still think they're in a sellers market when no one can afford buy a home because of 7% interest rates
Homes prices are never coming down. The problem is homes are worth more its just the dollar is worth less.
Depends on where you live or how bad they need to sell. For out house, They wanted $545K and we offered $500K and they took it.
@@kylegrant9980 That means your boss better give you a raise to get home buying affordable. Like you said, the value of homes is affordable. Only the weekly paychecks aren't practical. Everyone should quit their jobs all at once to regenerate the salaries into today's affordable levels.
Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
-I will be happy getting assistance and glad to get the help of one, but just how can one spot a reputable one?
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
I'm a Florida lifer. Born here in 1978 and still here. And yeah, I tell people it feel like getting out of a hot tub and then going in sitting in the sauna.
I got news for you brother, New Yorkers have been invading Palm Beach County for past 50 years or more. That's why I left my hometown of Delray Beach and moved to Northern Florida over 30 years ago. Native-born Floridians like me have a saying, "the further south you go in Florida, the more north you go."
Boo hoo 😂😂
I always said the further north you go the more southern it gets 😂
@@garage2track
That's the Magic of Traveling on a SPHERE 😜😜
If you go far enough East....
You'll end up *WEST.*
☀️☀️
@HughJass-jv2lt someone didn't understand the joke 🤣 You must not have spent any time in Florida
@@garage2track
O.P. was pretty clear.
Numerous Northern Transplants are in SOUTHERN Florida
With HOA and insurances nobody would buy in Florida anymore. Tell the rich to keep those houses for themselves.
The rich have plenty empty houses .😅
AZ too HOA has taken over like crazy.I am out, don't like it.
That weather analogy was right on point. I lived in the Fort Lauderdale area for 8 years in the first part of 2000's. My Camaro didn't have ac and I was sitting in traffic waiting for it to move and I fainted from the heat. I was young and fit back then. Still it knocked me out. It was probably 120 in the car. Anyone, especially the over 50 crowd need to think very seriously about their health before moving to Florida. If you have any kind of heart issues, do not even think about it. Unless you don't mind staying in an ac environment for the rest of your life. Be prepared to pay a couple of hundred bucks for electricity every month depending on how big your place is. Budget for the cost of ac repairs. Walking around, playing sports, forget about it. The only place outside that's tolerable is at the beach because of the breeze or if you have one, by the pool. So even in a few years when prices will be 50% lower, if you can't take the heat, don't want to pay a fortune for utilities, stay away.
Good point! Most stay inside in the A/C living in Fla . So what good is it?
I play tennis in FL morning heat, great sweat and toxin removal
"homes will be 50% off soon. I've been wrong the past 4 years but just trust me" - Reventure
A 9 month supply of houses that are not affordable is not a supply.
It is in the sense that sellers need to be more appealing than the other 9 months of supply of they want to sell
It's like seeing a car lot full of fully optioned out / high price new BMW and Mercedes when the buyer just wants an affordable and reliable Toyota.
I would like a boat.
" Can I interest you in our vast stockpile of battleships?"
No.
@@Pangora2 Lots of houseboats in Texas!!
If I was selling my house, I’d be cutting my price and lowering expectations because it’s only going to get worse. Sellers minds are living in lala land.
Really? You would actually do that as a seller? Sounds like you know something that these other sellers don't understand.
@@skyfinancellc9538 no way in hell these people are going to get these prices, especially with the high interest rates and they won’t be going down and even if they did it would send home prices even higher. The buying pool will shrink even more.
What people don’t realize is most “sellers” own multiple homes, there is no hurry to sell if they don’t get the price they want because they can always rent it out.
The problem with most Developers is that they fell in love with building nothing but McMansions when Interest Rates were below 5% . Profits were High and people could afford the payment . Now the opposite is true . Interest Rates are at 7% and the Homes are still north of $400,000.00 . Florida has another serious problem as Property Insurance Costs from Orlando Southward are nearly the same as a House Payment was Pre-Pandemic .
An average house in south Florida will have a 10-12k home insurance policy. Another 7-15k property tax.
@@wwjccsd It's not like u get something for that too. U just get to Live 😝😝😝😝
Taxes at these prices are also prohibitive.
It's actually cheaper to build big homes... not total price obviously but the per square foot prices goes down as the home size goes up. There's just more profit in building bigger homes, so thats what they build.
❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤@@wwjccsd
Imagine what would happen to home prices if not for an infinite stream of rent seekers flooding the country.
I'll ask the half dozen that seem to live in every single 2 bath 1 floor house around here. The eighteen cars in the front lawn and eight names on the mailbox are usually a give away
@@Pangora2 lol
By this measure the immigrant crisis is beneficial for landlords, so they have a cover up for demanding higher rants from new tenants
I am 71 and survived the late 70s/early 80s oil embargo and the 2008 recessions, but what is coming I believe will be far worse the longer the FED artificially props up the economy for the 2024 elections and the government keeps spending like drunk sailors.
To those complaining about 7% mortgage rates my 1981 rate was 16%. After several year we refinanced at 9% and living frugally paid off the mortgage in 11 years all while maxing out my 401K. Retired now and living comfortably in the same small ranch house.
Today the young just starting out and those in their 40s and 50s with a family and all of the associated expenses are just trying to survive to the next week let alone even contemplating the fantasy of retiring. Over the decades wages have simply not kept up with the real inflation rate which is at least 2 to 3 time the bogus rate reported by our lying corrupt government.
It may be too late, but carefully vet the candidates before casting your votes. Think logically considering accomplishment, not emotionally on personality.
Average Americans have been in a recession for at least a year already. A sh!tstorm is coming and absolutely nothing can stop it.
SO RIGHT JAY..THEN THEY CAN BLAME THE BIDEN SH*T STORM ON TRUMP !!
Florida is nasty hot from May to September. Too hot to go outside and do anything past 10am. My dad's pool felt like a luke warm bath.
People up north think FL is a real live Magaritaville where you can take your grandkids to Disney every so often. Not sure how standing in a blazing hot themepark is "magical"
Yea, but if you're looking to get laid --- dancers are the best in Florida
Stand outside in mid Michigan in February and you’ll understand.
Should try to sell it back to france while you still can get anything for it. In 15-20 years this will be an unhabitable wasteland (as will be large parts of Texas, probably will have the whole state plastered with solar panels...the only people living there will be maintenance workers in underground dwellings 😂
@@StefanChicag France? I think you mean Spain.
And, they say Southerners are stupid. At least get your history correct, Chicago.
I lived around the Daytona area for 4 years. It was better than South Carolina. This place is way worse than florida lol
Nick, just watched your latest posting. I haven't always agreed with you, but here you are 100% correct. Thanks for the well thought out analysis and predictions. Good luck on your app and move to Florida.
Finally looks like the naysayers are coming around to their senses.
@@jordanmetcalf9496you mean the people who were correct for the past 3 years?
I lived in Florida. It is flat, humid, and buggy. You also have hurricane season. Don't miss it at all. That was back when it was cheap to live there. Couldn't imagine living there now with the high costs to boot. I hated always having to have the bug guy come out and spray the inside and outside of the house. Plus, there are the cockroaches, that they give the pretty name of Palmetto bug. It's a cockroach. I don't miss any of it. If you have pets, you get the displeasure of dealing with the fleas too. A lot of people who moved there will probably get sick of it eventually. This year is predicted to be a terrible hurricane season. We will see who stays, and who leaves.
FAKE NEWS!
😂😂
I’m in Dallas. I live near a creek and we have water bugs too. They are a kind of roach. I resisted putting chemical bug spray out, but I broke down 3 weeks ago after I found more in my house. It is disgusting. I don’t really want to live by a creek again. Pretty trees, but the bugs make it not worth it. My dad is in Fort Myers, and he has not mentioned water bugs or palmettos.
Slave -wage state
Where do you live now?
It's 95 degrees and 95 percent humidity today here in Hallandale Florida there isn't a soul walking outside. At night it's still 85 degrees disgusting when you dress up and blow out your hair to look good for two minutes. This is a swamp . If you like walking this not the place for you . I hope prices come down ,and I can go to a friendlier state.
When nobody wants to buy a house, asks about buying a house, thinks about buying a house. THEN the downturn will really get going. until then it's just people catching a falling knife.
same as 2007
Actually what happens first is the commercial inventory crashes. Next will be the houses that folks can't afford to live in any more.
Thanks for the comment, Brian!
Falling? the prices hit another ATH
The high humidity in conjunction with the high temperatures cause the heat index to increase which translates to more sweating. A high temperature with low humidity decreases the heat index and it feels much cooler with less sweating.
Personally I think South Florida is a cesspool. I grew up in South Florida. The crime, the con-artists, the traffic, the high taxes, the aging infrastructure is horrible, the flooding is really bad even if it rains a little. The gangs, flop houses and drugs are bad. Don't believe the charts, they don't report the official stats. I finally escaped when I was 35. That was in 1997. I moved to North Florida. Completely different good people.
Jacksonville isn't much better.
I work for a municipality in So Cal, and developers are SCRAMBLING now to get entitlement to their properties! 😮😮
My guess is that they to hit the iron while it is still hot, though cooling very fast! I remember a similar situation in 08.
They just downgraded DR Horton and Lennar. Florida is a big problem for all builders. Florida has always been a Boom/Bust state too. Thanks Nick!
We have built off a cliff in Sarasota/Manatee county Florida. This unwinding will be epic!
Same in IRC @Michael-qy1jz of course they're all dropping their prices now.
They just hit ATHs and record profits
What do you mean: "They" just downgraded DR Horton. Who is "they?" Can you explain where they did this? And what it really means? TY
Not all areas.,been looking to buy in saint Johns county for the last 6-9 months and inventory is still annoying low. I thought we were gonna find a place with the summer boom and no one selling. I’m not buying new construction garbage. There’s no homes for sale in mature neighborhoods there.
Instead of building these depressing, isolated houses, they should build a new walkable town or city with a main street and things going on, where you arent a slave to a car. The cities are so overpriced because there is so much demand. People want to live in communities not suburbs. We need more city like housing
I want to live alone in the woods.
Grew up in a city, nice small though house, us kids really enjoyed the back yard.
I can't imagine anyone raising kids without their own backyard...
Forgot to mention that I left the city at 18 years.
Will never ever live in a large city again!
If the demand was there for “walkable towns” they would be building them.
Yeah, the crime is so appealing in the cities.
FRED economic data shows 577,000 new single-family homes in July 2006 peak and 481,000 in May, but your point is correct nonetheless. The trajectory shows definitively that inventory will eclipse 2006-2007 by a lot, and as unemployment triples over the next 2 years, home values will crash 60% in TX and FL, 50+% in AZ and TN and over 40% everywhere else in the US. I'm actually convinced old fixer uppers in FL will crash 70% because I bought an old fixer upper 1 mile from the beach in 2009 for 65% off of 2007 values and it dropped another 6% in value in 2010 and the math is so much worse this time in terms of unaffordability relative to the median income, it's not even in the same ballpark.
@enthused7591 -- Someone with a brain. Keep on preaching my friend. People need to hear it.
I pray prices in eastern TN drop 50%. The Smokeys are calling my name.
@@breadnaut3087 No! I live in East Tennessee and would like very much to hold on to my home equity. Modest house in a decent neighborhood. I'm hoping for the best.
It would be nice to see an 80% price reduction
I don’t think you understand what that would entail.
St. Petersburg Florida would be a great place for your office. It’s going to experience a lot of growth due to the shortage of land and the nature of it being a peninsula.
My sister lives there. It’s very nice. But her HOA fees keep skyrocketing and insurance is too high.
The year 2008 is the good old days, compared to what's coming.
Hyperinflation will bail out the housing market this time around. Don’t expect the dollar to go up in value (buying more house for less dollars).
@@torsten6777 God i hope that doesn't happen.
I don't think it will because prices are stuff are starting to tick down.
Histrionics aside..
Thank god I bought in 1998. 118,000$ is what I paid. It’s a 1500sf house with a front and back porch. It got hit by the hurricane in 2005. So the interior was totally rebuilt. I feel so happy to have my home.
These 400-700,000$ homes. Wow how can anybody afford such?
400-700k? Try 1M and above.
Look to Canada for the dystopia that the future holds.
Never understood putting the $ after the number…
Most people can't. But tent sales are up......Way up.
People afford those $400k-700k homes by selling their old home that they bought in 1998 for $110k for a crazy price of $500k now.
What sucks even for those who came here to Florida and paid these out-of-control prices for these houses are going to owe 2 to 3 times on those houses than what they're going to be worth. I talked my brother out of buying a new house about 8 months ago, I told him to wait at least a year because things are going to crash.
Housing prices GRADUALLY increase, so when you see their prices skyrocket to over double or more in a short amount of time, you can bank on the fact that it will not last, It can't last, that type of thing is not sustainable.
Nick, you should open up a Reventure office in Freeport Bahamas, only 60 miles from West Palm Beach. This is where all the money is going to be flowing in the next decade. The place is nearly undiscovered.
You don’t need brick&mortar for an online business
I believe the retirement crisis will get even worse. Many struggle to save due to low wages, rising prices, and exorbitant rents. With homeownership becoming unattainable for middle-class Americans, they may not have a home to rely on for retirement either.
Consider buying stocks when the economy is not doing well, like during a recession. It could be a chance to buy them at a lower price and sell later when prices go up. Just keep in mind, this isn't financial advice, but sometimes it's better than keeping a lot of cash.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial. Some use hedging or defensive assets in their portfolio for market downturns. Seeking financial advice is vital. This approach has kept me financially secure for over five years, with a return on investment of nearly $1 million.
Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service?
Sharon Lee Peoples maintains an online presence that can be easily found through a simple search of her name on the internet.
Jupiter, FL is a very nice place to live so I would say that would be a good place to open your shop. You want a good place to live and work so it's not all work and no play/ fun. You want your home to be a peaceful location where you love living there. For me, I like the water front on acreage with a nice yard to relax in.
You might be the exception, but few people can afford such property. The insurance alone would keep most people away
@@joewoodchuck3824 It's a good goal to want that if you can afford it.
Left Florida. Can’t imagine returning.
Floridian here! Yes Florida is Hot and sticky but you’ll get used to it but not the mosquitoes.
I like that the unfinished home shown at 2:00 is cinderblock and metal studs. This allows the builder to abandon it for a year or two without it getting moldy. Might come in handy.
most of us know crash is coming, and this has been talking for years. the problem is when!
it could be interesting to see a interview video on people who recently bought a home, why they did it...
when they cut rates, housing prices on the lower end still affordable houses will go up so even they will be unaffordable and then inventory will go up and these houses will sit on the market. Smaller single family homes $250k and under are still selling fast and in low inventory
Good. I'm happy to see it. Builder inventory is up, lumber and appliances are on fire sale. I hope they keep building and flood the market even further with inventory.
It has been over 25 years since I left Nashville and moved to Broward County, the best decision I ever made, and I do not regret it! I loved this area; it is very beautiful. I wanted to be in Florida but not in the hustle and bustle, and I found something similar to Nashville in Broward. My best wishes to you in your goals, and I hope everything goes well for you.
7;15 Water and include some salt if you're not medically restricted. I had ankle and finger cramps last week and realized I had been profusely sweating outdoors while drinking caffeinated beverages.
Great video.
All forests cleared out and temperatures going up
Homebuilders are doing the same thing as auto makers. They're building high end models when most people are looking for affordability.
As an old man who has been around for the past 8 decades, I totally agree. This is reminiscent of the 70's during the Carter administration. We still have a period of unemployment to go through before the recession bottoms out.
Not "if" but "when"!
What concerns me is, big corporations buying up all the single family homes if prices drop
Here in Phoenix, just hot, rarely humidity. Huge difference. Oh and pistol in your pocket or holster on your hip, no license required by law. Carjack the wrong guy or gal here…. And many are carrying.
The humidity has always been a killer here in FL I was born and raised here from the 60s and it's no hotter today than the 70s...
First time ever in Phoenix a few years back and rented a car from the airport and left stopped at a gas station about 20 minutes out heading to Sedona of course> the dash showed 117° lol it was hot but I was happy with no issues because there was no humidity lol
FROM FLA but lived in Phoenix back in 2010, really liked it and the heat didn't bother me one bit, never sweated
The home prices will definitely drop. I hope more first-time buyers will be able to afford one.
It gonna take maybe a decade before it can happen
After 2008 I'm so glad my home is paid for and i love where i live out in the country on acreage.
Opening up a office in Florida ? A Very Bad Idea ! Period !😮
I'm from Florida and that is a perfect analogy!
Use to live in Orlando and what you said about taking a shower in your clothes and walking outside in the wet clothes is right on.
NOW I live in Arizona that was over 115 today. The way I tell people the how it is different than Florida is “Go put some cookies in the oven. When they are done, and you open the oven door to grab them, and that heat hits you in the face and you wince! “That is what waking outside from the AC of your house and car feels here. :)
I’m in Gulf Shores 5 years from Phoenix of 26 years.
I always explained Arizona at 113+ as: (it’s like taking a hair dryer and holding it 2 feet from your face.
I'm from Las Vegas, been in Mesa Phoenix area 6 years. Las Vegas is like a hair dryer, AZ is like being IN the oven. Ridiculous 😅
And in Arizona when the heat hits you, you don't even get the smell of cookies!
And living in Florid is like opening up the door to the steam sauna and standing inside for a while. Having lived in Colorado before (same dry heat and cold) I prefer that heat than this steam sauna heat that lasts for 8 months out of the year.
you are right about people in the northeast selling and moving south. People on my street that have multi families are selling them for well over a million dollars. it's crazy
But every Realtor on TV and social media keep saying we have low inventory …
No idea of what development you're in but what i notice is all the houses look the same. And no land. Lots of developments like that in the far west of PB County based on what I've seen. And many over 1 million. No thanks
I moved to Florida after college in 1982. My 1973 beetle which I drove down to Florida did not have air conditioning. I got a job as a stock broker in Palm beach and I lived in Palm Beach Gardens. In the summer months I would start out wearing my white dress shirt and my suit. By the time I arrived at the office I would jump into the men's room and change my dress shirt for another white dress shirt because my shirt was soaked with sweat from the drive to the office. It was so hot, I'll never forget it. My first bonus check I drove to Roger Dean Chevrolet on Northlake Blvd and I bought a 1983 Chevy Camaro with air for $9,200. Florida get really hot in the summer followed by thunder and deadly lightening storms.
Lived in FL in the 90s. I hated summer. Too hot to do anything outside. I didn't have internet, so being inside most of the day was miserable
@john, lol, y didn’t you just wear a T shirt to work then change to the suit🤦🏻♂️. Everyone in Florida at that time were wearing flip flops and T shirts anyway.. 🤙
In the 1980's as a young stock broker working on Worth Avenue you needed to wear a suit all the time. If people saw you wearing a tee shirt and flip flops they would think you were a pool cleaner. Wouldn't take you as a serious person. @@Jay-ju9jw
😂😂
@@shashipatil120465 Here in the Philippines, we had a really hot Summer, a LOT of 45C days. But, most of the time Summers are +/- 41C or 42 C. Today is nice. It's only 32C. Even still... I keep my AC set at 26C.
Florida, we have been here 6 years from MN.
You have to golf, play pickelball and go for walks between 6:30am and 10:00 am. After that time you need to either be at the beach or pool or inside in the AC. It is like this for 9 months. The other 3 months it can be brutally cold, down to 30 in the morning but 75 mid day so during those 3 months. Stay inside morning and evening and play outside mid day, exact opposite of the 9 month summer.
It is still better than combatting blizzards and treacherous driving and dark at 4pm all winter.🥶 no thanks.
Hi, Nick. I've been a subscriber to your TH-cam channel for nearly 6 years. I've learned a lot from you. I think setting up a Reventure App office in Florida is an excellent idea. Like you said, the Sunshine State seems to be a microcosm of the wider US housing market -- the move would make a lot of sense strategically. I live in Central Florida neat Orlando, so naturally I think you should pick the Greater Orlando market to set up shop! You recently visited Davenport, the town where I live. I'm sure you will let us know if and when you decide to make Florida your (second) home. Keep up the great work!
This crash will be worse than 2008. Reason why is there is not much rate relief that came be offered to people. In 2008, no one had a 3% had lowering rate made a big impact. It will only help a few this time. From the commercial lending side SBA lending has been on steroids for the past 15 years. The crash will bottom out when commercial real estate becomes affordable for small business again.
Agree it's definitely going to be worse . In 2007-2008 we were only dealing with mortgage debt. This time it's mortgage + Auto loan +student loan +credit card debt.
I think what could really make it worse than 2008 is *** investor selling ***... when a homeowner sells a house they immediately buy a new one.. so they do add supply, but also corresponding demand. But investors can list 1, 10 or even 10,000 homes for sale, but buy zero. This will skyrocket supply, drive down prices which will encourage even more investors selling, additional supply and even lower prices. A negative feedback loop in RE is a real possibility.
In 2008, everyone already had 2 or 3 houses, so people had to get rid of a couple and of houses when recession came. This time, tens of millions are looking to buy as soon as prices decline. For the first time in 100+ years household size increased due to the ongoing housing shortage caused by underconstruction from 2008-2016.
@@torsten6777 Looking to buy and being able to buy are two different things... if home prices are falling how many banks do you think will write loans with 3% down? Their borrower could easily have negative equity after 12 months. Banks don't like that. And then there is job loss... home prices do not fall in a vacuum.. if home prices fall significantly you will see much higher unemployment and those people will not be able to buy a home. And then there is investor selling which could easily skyrocket supply.
@@torsten6777 Where I live there is more investor properties now then in 2008. There is a lot of people waiting to buy at a 50% discount when they can afford it. The crash is coming and lowering the rates won't bail out the market.
at 4% unemployment and with golden hancuffs still in place. This is just a trickle when unemployment goes to 5% and beyond and the fed cuts rates then the dam will really break and inventory will double. New listings are still about 50% lower than pre pandemic and inv is still rising fast. Almost 0 demand.
Please do yourself a favor and take a few finance courses. There's many issues with what you said, including supply and demand issues that you clearly don't understand. I'm an economist by training. Self-made investor.
The Fed cuts rates when the dam breaks. When they cut rates something is broken
Can't wait 😂😂
Everyone seems to think the rate cuts are going to save this mess. They constantly need reminding that the last two market crashes (2000 & 2008) came AFTER rate cuts.
@@JasRoss Yep. Rate cuts come when the unemployment starts to rise in an attempt to slow down the job loss. Everyone is listening to their realtor and mortgage broker who are starving for business since transactions are down 30% from norms.
There is a big difference between what happened in 2008 and what is happening now.
Up until the end of 2007 you could get a mortgage with just one qualifier, you had to have breath in your body.
Now you have builders chasing the money and building these homes during the pandemic .. now that the interest on loans is up again you have a stagnant market.
I was at 6.4% when I bought my first home and it was a struggle for me then but I pushed through.
People are not willing to take on a mortgage at that percent anymore. Buyers have been spoiled with 0% interest loans.
Buyers want easy money and builders want all the money.
I can drive around and see with my eyes plainly that there’s more houses for sale and they’ve been for sale for longer periods of time than ever before.
Ever before? Inventory levels are even up to pre-pandemic levels yet.
Bravo, Nick! Thank you for the informative presentation. Florida heat tip: I'm near Melbourne Beach. Just drinking water won't help you with the heat. You need to put electrolyte in your water...and stay hydrated all day long. This heat can kick your ass if you're not careful. Cheers.
To my own research In USA, individuals living in cars due to partial homelessness result from a complex interplay of factors. High housing costs relative to income, stagnant wages, and income inequality drive this issue. Job loss, weak social support, medical expenses, evictions, and lack of affordable housing also contribute, while systemic problems and inadequate policies further perpetuate the phenomenon.
Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.
I've remained in touch with a financial analyst since the start of my business. Amid today's dynamic market, the key difficulty is pinpointing the right time to buy or sell when dealing with trending stocks - a seemingly simple task but challenging in reality. My portfolio has grown by more than 5 figures within just a year, and i have entrusted my advisor with the task of determining entry and exit points.
Recently, I've been considering the possibility of speaking with consultants. I need guidance because I'm an adult, but I'm not sure if their services would be all that helpful.
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Vivian Jean Wilhelm for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
Vivian Jean Wilhelm is the licensed advisor I use. Just google the name. You’d find necessary details to work with and set up an appointment.
No homes for sale at all in Las Vegas,that's what my Realtor Ben said,no inventory prices are still going up,buyers wrapped around every for sale home that comes on the market,and the home sells in hrs for $150,000 over asking price no inspection allowed.
Your realtor is lying to you. Find an honest, knowledgeable realtor.
Given we're in construction, you'll notice subcontractors feeding into construction going bust which is a clear warning sign, especially window installers fabricators. Builders with unsold inventory invariably have to offload as the unsold houses don't create any cashflow but the debt on them requires cashflow to pay the interest. (You'll see construction firms going bust).
Polk County markets should’ve never jumped on the greed,cash grab bandwagon!!!!
The new home Naples FL market is INSANE. I saw it in 2006 and now I see it happening again.
In the northeast such as New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Connecticut are still going strong and that’s because of low inventory and prices are still skyrocketing. I don’t think we’ll be experiencing a crash anytime soon, and if that happens it won’t be as bad as the south.
Presented very good data to support your arguments. Well done and very informative! Thank you.
Are there jobs, transit, things to do? Super expensive. Mc Mansion made out of card board that you can literally punch through the walls and have a 2 hour commute to work? "Affordable."
Walls are concrete block
Work from home. 10 min to walmart