Trading Gold: Breakout or Fake-Out? (w/ Peter Boockvar)
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 6 ก.ย. 2024
- Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, is looking to take advantage of the technical breakout in gold. He explains the impact of a dovish Fed, notes the relationship between the metal and negative-yielding debt, and reveals just how high he sees prices going, in this interview with Justine Underhill. Filmed on June 28, 2019.
Watch more Real Vision™ videos: po.st/RealVisio...
Subscribe to Real Vision™ on TH-cam: po.st/RealVisio...
Watch more by starting your 14-day free trial here: rvtv.io/2NwPHFV
About Trade Ideas:
Top traders unveil their specific plans for cashing in on the market's next move. In these short videos, our traders cut straight to the point and lay out their thoughts on the best risk-reward trades of the moment. Each episode concludes with a visual recap of trade details including profit-loss potential and trade duration.
About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™.
Connect with Real Vision™ Online:
Twitter: rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ
Instagram: rvtv.io/2J7Ddlw
Facebook: rvtv.io/2NNOlmu
Linkedin: rvtv.io/2xbskqx
Gold: Breakout or Fake-Out? (w/ Peter Boockvar)
/ realvisiontelevision
Transcript:
For the full transcript visit: rvtv.io/2NwPHFV
is very similar to how people look at gold. And it's back to an asset with limited supply, negative yielding
interest rates, central banks are better out of their minds, that are losing control and not helping the
economy. And let's have an area of safety, let's have a form of value.
So I think Bitcoin and gold really are now being defined in very similar ways. Whereas Bitcoin maybe was
going to be a transactional coin, and you're going to buy some pizza with it. Well, I don't think that's the
case. And the same thing with gold, it's a store of value. And I think people are now grouping them together.
So well, I have no opinion on where the price of Bitcoin ends up. I still pay attention to it in terms of the
messaging that it gives to markets, because I think that the messaging that it is giving is very similar to what
gold is saying. And that they're now speaking the same language
JUSTINE UNDERHILL: So then in terms of gold, are you also looking at technicals as well?
PETER BOOCKVAR: So the $1375 level, I believe, we talked about this channel, and breaking out from
this downtrend, I think, was really that key level. And now that we've gotten above that, now, $1400 is
becoming this sticky level. I know it's a round number and you're just picking it out of thin air. But when
you're talking about an asset like this, you trend toward to round numbers. But I believe that you look at a
chart, going back to 2012-2013, this is really a massive, multiyear bottom that we've created here, this
reverse head and shoulders that I believe has real potential of going back to those 2011 highs.
And it's not just the technical, it's a combination of the fundamentals and technicals that are really coming
together in why I think this time is different, in terms of not being a fake-out with previous rises in gold
where, again, and I'm guilty of this as well as others that this is it, this is it, because I really be this is going
to be it. And one other thing I want to distinguish, this potential easing cycle ahead for the Fed, versus the
last infinity-type easing cycle in 2013, we had QE3 infinity QE is that we entered that year and the gold
bulls, such as myself, after being global gold bulls since 2000, was, okay, this is what's going to finally get
us to this parabolic, epic move above $2000, $2500, wherever, and ended up failing in $1900. And the
exact opposite happened.
Gold totally broke down while the Fed was printing a trillion dollars in 2013. And that is because the market
said you know what, the economy is good, the Fed is helping, let's rely on the Fed and everything is- the
macro situation is fine, why own gold, I don't care what the Fed's doing. Now, we're entering a different
form of an easing cycle. But the fundamentals around the world are deteriorating, the dollar is softening.
You have all these negative yielding securities which didn't exist in 2013 really, you had only- I think it was
maybe Sweden or Denmark that started down that road. So that's what separates this time versus that time.
JUSTINE UNDERHILL: So could you review the levels that you're looking at for gold as well as the stop
loss that you would have?
![🎤 จับฉลากร้องเพลง x P’ #XXSIVK [EP.1] (2/2) เพื่อนจับได้คำไหน..ต้องร้องคำนั้น เริ่ม! 💓🎶 #MXFRUIT](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/1bJvMJXmeS4/mqdefault.jpg)
"Gold has no yield!". Soon bonds won't either. It fact increasingly negative yield. ;)
Very true! Some mining stocks do have yield. That makes them a little less painful to hold a few years waiting for gold to run again.
Sentiment in gold wave two tends to repeat the sentiment of the overall prior trend. In this case, it’s here we go again. The only way you can stay in control of your emotions and separate yourself from the crowd is to follow this discipline, keep your head in the chart, and block the emotions of the crowd. I learnt discipline superbly with Lukasz Wilhelm IQD Momentum strategy technique.
Riandi Anthok I’m up about 60% on my cost basis and not buying any more, just holding. Long term cart looks very bullish for late 2019 into 2020.
He’s completely forgetting about the futures market paper gold and silver manipulation. If that doesn’t break down it’s not going to go anywhere .
Gold is a hedge against massive inflation coming soon. The real opportunity must be in silver, bullion as it cost less to buy the bullion than it does to mine it, that is crazy!
Massive inflation requires people with enough money to sustain that inflation. Oil runs the economy so you might need to see high oil to get that inflation rather than deflation. Remember how much currency will vanish as bad debt, and remember the growing demographics of fixed income people. You are not seeing that massive inflation in real estate today - you are seeing wicked deflation in big and small estates.
So if the printing of trillions of dollars in 2013 coincided with the drop in gold won't future MASSIVE printings coincide with a drop?
Ergo, Comex bandits! Since when does gold fall with a devaluing dollar?
@@rosedalepaint I took this idea directly from the video.
mock my words... before gold spikes up.. it will take a substantial dip. This will happen during the recesion. So if you miss out... dont trip... dont buy. If you do your homework, youll realize what im talking about
Ummm.. I think you mean "mark my words". But we'll mock you either way.
JS72 Just checked Ebay and silver is selling at a very high premium already. I won’t really be buying much more into the metals market other than buying some dips on miners if there are any in the months ahead. My positions are already big enough. Time to watch and wait for the time to sell out. My guess is 2 years.
This guy says bitcoin gives an indication for gold... its total value is less than whats traded in xauusd a day ......
Well with the NFP numbers that came out today I highly doubt that the FED will continue to cut rates!!!
u obviously dont understand the fed has only one way and its down, to much debt and the economy is slowly going into a recession and the bonds markets have been showing this. Keep thinking that and u will be burned
@@ryanshaeffer103 LOL I am not an economist I have 0 trades open, it was just an OPINION!
@@ryanshaeffer103 And to your point that the bond market has been showing this my answer would be: YEAH because market correlations have been on point up till now....... (sarcasm)
Agreed.
@@SPQRapid Im suprised you didn't get an insult. He insulted me on another thread when I didn't agree with his Bitfraud take.Although the Fed take is correct...they are stuck...its a ponzi scheme. Mathematically to keep system solvent they have to lower rates .
Massive cups or small people?
I was thinking the same. Cups are too big.
Good is like the VIX it never stays up
look at all the steam coming out of those coffee cups!
“The bigger the base the higher in space!”
Gold hasn't even reached the level of January 1980...and it won't anytime soon.
If ever.
dpends on inflation and other factors.
kevin joseph That’s the point. The London fix in January 1980 was $850 which is approximately $2800 today.
So the great inflation hedge has lost nearly half its value.
Sentiment in gold wave two tends to repeat the sentiment of the overall prior trend. In this case, it’s here we go again. The only way you can stay in control of your emotions and separate yourself from the crowd is to follow this discipline, keep your head in the chart, and block the emotions of the crowd. I learnt discipline superbly with Lukasz Wilhelm IQD Momentum strategy technique. after finding out some secrets about he's system on net, i got most of his ebooks through *iqdtrades .com*
What about the sleeping silver story!?
@@stevenjordens1 The nerve! You do know it has much higher industrial use, is not recovered nearly as well as gold, is on a 3 year production decline AND is incredibly under priced @ 93:1 when historically the average has been 55:1. The fundamentals suggest it should be MUCH higher in price, but somehow it's price is depressed compared to gold...(no complaints as I'm stacking). *sleeping silver*
Gold in $/ounce has appreciated 41 times the early 1971 price of $35. This makes me nervous, because the overall purchasing power of a US dollar has declined by only one-sixth since that time, for most commodities & services purchased in the USA, outside of ultra-inflated areas like coastal California. In other words, I wonder if gold has already seen most of its appreciation versus the dollar.
No. Dollars are now worth 7 cents. It has been suppressed for decades. When they reset, they will have to use gold.
When the US dollar finally hyper-inflates like ALL fiats have in history, when the world no longer trusts the US dollar as the reserve currency, or when the US starts WW3 with Russia... gold will sky rocket, the dollar will plunge.
@@malthus101, Yes, I think that could happen in the future, but the massive question is WHEN?
@@astralpx, I lived through the 1970s and kept receipts and records. For commodities and services like rent, bread, gasoline, vegetables, clothing, and tools purchased in the US heartland, a dollar today in 2019 purchases what 17 cents bought in 1971. That is not my opinion; this is a matter of record. I don't know where your seven cents comes in, probably back in the 1940s. Good day to you.
@@bboucharde Good day. Look up the historical purchasing power chart of dollar. It shows through inflation how the dollar loses more and more purchasing power over the century... aka worth in relation to real goods/services.
Excellent information 🙏Thank You Very Much 👍
I like This Guy please call him Back
The coffee cups are too big and distracting.
Gold declined in 2013 because of Comex paper shorting, period. Nothing to do with debt based positive macro outlook.
Smart guy
gorgeous hair
But do the collars match the cuffs?
The coffee cup is too big!
The more I look at Justine the more I like her! 😉
Smart guy !!!!!!!! Very smart
Ok on the gold analisys but Justine is gorgeous, worth more than gold, which her hair reminds of.
GOLD IS TOPPING INTO 1455 INTO JULY 10 TO 16 AND NEG CYCLE IN DEFLATIONARY CYCLE AS RATES BOTTOMED
Bitcoin's price benefits from Idiocracy.
Assessing voluntary value to an invisible nonentity is most illogical. But after decades of using Government Fiat currency humans have been conditioned to accept, grade and add value to invisible nonentities. When logic is scarce and conditioning complete, the value of nothing can accelerate to very high levels and last for an eternity.
I've talked about this at length with my friend, there is no reason to own btc other than the prospects of it becoming more valuable (more purchasing power) in the future. It isn't capable of providing fast and cheap transactions at even medium scale, so how on earth could this thing be the future when it's claim to value is just plain false? Then we admit it's never going to be used as a currency so they go to the store of value argument and that's nonsense too. It's fake digital currency that the government "can't manipulate", it has no inherent value and never will. If there is no inherent value then it's just gambling.
All these macro bs vendors on real vision. Is there anything these guys get right?
She should marry him. Perfect match.
He's far too Beta for her. Too nice.
You had a very very brief 1900 in 2012 as things fell apart. A month or two, then gold demonstrated its ability to drop 1000 points, then stay between 1250 and 1350 for 7 years of see saw. Good luck to you making money on all these reputed leaps of gold, just make sure you are liquid enough to sell at what you see as a peak, because peaks in gold are very brief, as you would hope in a zero dividend item, because as a long term investment gold is horrible. But the big boys will get to sell at peaks, not you. Gold in your hands is not a liquid investment, gold not in your hands is liquid but fake. The average person should feel good about forgetting golds coming quantum leaps. My advice posted for the last 5 years of buy 1200 to 1250, sell 1300 to 1350 because it is a rigged see saw market, was good advice.
I could be wrong now, but a number in the Wall Street journal will not make me wrong. You selling your 1400 gold at 1900 and pocketing 500 an ounce - that would make me wrong. When the number gets high, the impact of stackers or governments selling is hard to predict. Fair chance your sale will not be on an exchange, but at a coin or pawn shop - so the numbers have to filter through some tiers before impacting the widely accepted fake paper price. While gold is real in an unreal world, it is not traded in the real world by little players, the big players dominate that world. I advise holding gold in a manner that assures you access to a liquid market within 7 days, not two months.
If gold really was a liquid asset, most banks would loan money to you at their lowest rates if you let them hold 150 percent in gold from the day of the loan. Most banks will not loan a dime on any amount of gold period. When I can borrow 70 cents for a year on gold posted at $1 today, for an annual interest rate of 4 percent or less, I am all in and will rave about gold. Who wants my gold - but you have to be a bank or reputable institution, not a scammer buying gold at 30 percent discount.
Yawn. Another gold bull story.
Oops lol
she is classy & cute!
The thing about these hot chic interviewers is that they seem so switched on and interested any arcane topic. In the real world women like this have nothing going on inside their empty heads. They dont need to. They are there to be entertained. To be pleased.
She's paid to do this.
The girl looks creepy
First comment!!!