Market To Hit New Lows In 2023 As Interest Rates & Inflation Go 'Higher For Longer' | Peter Boockvar
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 ต.ค. 2024
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As investors enter 2023, all eyes remain on the Fed and how committed it will remain to its hawkish course of hiking rates & tightening its balance sheet.
The latest data shows that the markets doubt the Fed will fulfill its plan to hike the Fed Funds rate to 5%, or higher, and then hold it there for a meaningful number of months.
In short, they expect the Fed to pivot soon.
But today's guest warns not to underestimate the Fed's resolve. Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group & Editor of The Boock Report sees rates as going "higher for longer" than the market is pricing in.
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There’s no doubt that it's a very challenging time right now for the average investor. Above and beyond the recent economic impacts of COVID, the new era of record low interest rates, runaway US debt and US deficits, and trillions of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus stimulus has changed the rules of investing by dangerously distorting the Dow index, the S&P 500, and nearly all other asset prices. Can prices keep rising, or is there a painful reckoning ahead?
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IMPORTANT NOTE: The information and opinions offered in this video by Wealthion or its interview guests are for educational purposes ONLY and should NOT be construed as personal financial advice. We strongly recommend that any potential decisions and actions you may take in your investment portfolio be conducted under the guidance and supervision of a quality professional financial advisor in good standing with the securities industry. When it comes to investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance. All investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.
Global financial markets have been significantly impacted by SVB's demise, prompting investors to sell off bank equities hastily and reevaluate their interest rate expectations. I am a $350,000 investor who is at a crossroads and wondering if it is wise to hold onto securities that are losing value. I want guidance on the best approaches to maximizing my returns in this negative market.
During market downturns, invstors should remain committed to reputable companies by maintaining or growing their investments, as well-managed businesses eventually regain their former strength. To find the best entry and exit points for long-term gains from st0ck appreciation, get advice from a market expert. Gains from working with an invsting advisor can be substantial, as was demonstrated during the pandemic when a gain of $530k in just 8 months was realized.
@@oneiljerry9460 Could you kindly leave your investment advisor's contact information here? I absolutely must have one.
@@alexyoung3126 HEATHER ANN CHRISTENSEN, a well-known person in her field, is my advisor. I advise further investigating her credentials.
I appreciate your advice. It was easy to locate your counsel; after pasting her full name into my pc, her website appeared right away. Before hiring her services, I did a lot of research on her. Her résumé suggests that she is knowledgeable.
We are already in the big crash, Inflation is a catastrophe. This CPI report is a colossal failure. To bring the housing market to a halt, the FED will have to pull all the stops. The unfortunate issue is that other markets are being decimated. If you want to stay green, you have to rely on a lot of diversification. Currently up 14% and being careful. Still a better deal than leaving it in a savings or checking account yielding 0-1 percent interest.
People believe their currency has the worth it does because they have no other option. Even in a hyper-inflationary environment, individuals must continue to use their hyperinflationary currency since they likely have minimal access to other currencies or gold/silver coins.
Inflation is gradually going to become part of us and due to that fact any money you keep in cash or in a low-interest account declines in value each year. Investing is the only way to make your money grow and unless you have an exceptionally high income, investing is the only way most people will ever have enough money to retire.
@@chandlerethan9567 You are right! I diversified my 450K portfolio across various market with the aid of an investment coach, I have been able to generate a little bit above 1.3m in net profit across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds during this red season.
@@carmindaAntunes How can I reach out to this coach? because I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach How good is this person at portfolio diversification, particularly with regard to digital assets?
@@carmindaAntunes Please I'm very much interested. How can I get touch with this coach, i really want to give her a try.
it feels good to see the market in green, but just how long until we actually break even, I’m the average retail trader, DCA-ing, buying and holding on to stocks for eons, but it’s like I’m up 5% today and down 17% the next week, Yes the market is very unpredictable, there’s winners and losers, and it’s looking like I’ve been on a losing streak, while others make huge 6figure gains in the same market. What strategies are these folks using?
So what I do is buy companies that are doing good things, executing on business plans and then short companies that are missing earnings, it’s as simple as that.
@@MariusNatt we’ve been in a rally for the last decade, you just gotta accept not everyone is as knowledgeable in the market to handle the opportunities a crash market presents, and unfortunately for me too, I got in 2019 right before the market’s melting point, I just hope I recover soon enough before retirement. Stay strong.
My advice is to stay away from individual stocks unless you can understand the business and finances, buying an index tracker is best for novice and is hard to beat, next is sector ETFs but the timing is difficult. The problem is we are arguably in a bear market now so the strategy that has ‘always’ worked is now not. DCA is an option still, especially for 20+ year time horizon, keeping some funds aside to deploy in the event of a black swan event is also an idea. Really though you should speak to a qualified financial advisor (not one of the countless ‘gurus’ in these comments) as everyone’s situation is different. Don’t be surprised to see further downside yet, so have a plan ready so you are not making decisions based on emotion.
I have been in this industry since 1980. Interest rates have typically been 1.5% above inflation. It's amazing that people believe interest rates must be negative. Everything has a price, especially money.
I really enjoy the presentation of Peter Boockvar.
Peter Boockvar is a realistic pessimist with some optimistic variant.
He is one of the few on this channel that is not preaching ‘’The Fed will break something’’.
Remember the words of Warren Buffet:
“We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”
‘’Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.”
‘’The three most important words in investing are margin of safety’’.
You in particular and your guests are so good>>Thanks for your information#
This is an outstanding channel, with excellent content. Thank you.
One of your more knowledgeable guest. Valuable information.
Amazing show
Mr Boockvar is brilliant at conveying his thoughts and knowledge of the subject matter. His similes are perfect and give the lay person a frame of reference for the topic under discussion.
Peter offers wonderfully broad based insights..
I don’t understand why your guest says that we don’t do much business with China; has he never been to Walmart?
Adam, if you want to answer your questions related to growth or the lack of it in the future, please have an interview with Dr. Charles Hall, Richard Heinberg or Steve St Angelo. You would be able to understand the issues once and for all.
How about the prospects of natgas in 2023 under the light of this set of information?
Wow!!
Brilliant analysis from Peter
Thank you for these interviews
I'm learning a LOT!!
Thank you Peter and Adam
Get everyone in your family involved with keeping to a budget. Sit down together and make a plan that you can all stick to. Work out how much spending money is.
The key to budgeting is sticking to a basic rule - spend less than you earn. One way to start budgeting is to list what you earn, spend money on and owe. It can help to look at past salary statements, benefit statements, bills, bank statements and credit card statements.🥴
Creating a budget doesn't have to be difficult. Commit to the process of knowing how much money comes in and goes out.
With a family budget, you can make a plan for any discretionary income ... sit down together and have an honest conversation about money.👨👩👧👦
You need to commit to sticking to your budget and make financial decisions ... Many people have competing financial goals, including retirement planning…
@@baileypeters7743 sticking to your budgets is really good. imagine making 3k weekly and live in a 1k apartment.
Excellent!
Peter nailed it. What always frustrates me is the somewhat rosy interpretation that many people seem to have of the whole notion of "reversion to the mean" - it doesn't just mean going BACK to the mean, and then you're done. By definition, in order for a mean to be a mean... an average... all deviation above the mean level must be balanced, over time, with deviation below the mean level. Otherwise, it's not actually a mean (or it's an incorrectly calculated mean). So, use the analogy of a "pendulum swing" if you like, but for me just the fact that you have a mean trend by definition means that a time spent deviating above the mean needs to - eventually - be balanced by an equal amount of deviating below the mean.
Interesting point. I know what you mean but the value doesn’t have to cross the mean at the point of the ‘mean reversion’, or at all if the mean is rising or falling, as the case with a moving average. I think
I think you are right the term is commonly misused, perhaps just ‘reversion’ or ‘reversion to baseline’. What do you think?
Scoot over Luke Gromen and Brent Johnson! This interview was fire! 🔥🔥🔥
Right on !!!
Doing well with bond ETFs right now (TMF and BND). Will hold these until the S+P gets down to the low 3000's then transition over to VTI and/or VOO.
I like this guest speaker. Peter Boockvar has a large, big-picture view of the global/local markets without fear-mongering.
It is my opinion that (late stage, unregulated) capitalism is unsustainable and survives as a predator of cheap and less regulated labor markets. Capitalism is competitive and costly, because companies pay good money for an experienced employee to minimize their liability of costs (like who is liable to pay for healthcare, or insurance, or whatever). Minimizing liability does not mean minimizing NEED.
We don’t need socialism, but we need large-scale socialistic practices (like universal healthcare) to pool our individual resources and increase our buying strength to deflate rising costs. Housing is different than healthcare - but housing was never intended to be a commodity traded as “a stock” and there is limited availability, so we need to remove housing from the investment markets to some degree.
Could you please make a podcast on how does US Fed-Treasury money creation work. Who US is indebted to? Why can’t US print money? Etc.
He said US doesn't do much business with China and the Chinese has been saving money. Is this for real?
Love this channel
What actionable advice am I supposed to take from this video?
When was the last time inflation was at 2 percent?
The year 1491.
Higher rates longer is inevitable
Great content! Love this channel
Plz have Peter come back as the year progresses and the FEDS play games, the war continues and we are just tired of uncertainty in the markets
reshoring does not happen in a bubble. when you have a population with more employment opportunities, it will raise all boats in the harbor. will it be absolutely more expensive, sure but relatively less so.
A least the outlook is cheery! LOL
Mr. Boockvar, it is about time someone tells us the truth, thank you! Adam, you talk softly, but carry a big heart!
Bravo! Gentlemen...Bravo.
Schiff is another peter who's on point.
6.5 percent on top of already previously inflated prices!? Seems pretty grim to me. Would not the already record high prices put pressure on demand to slow inflation. “High prices are the cure for high prices “ along with steep increases in interest rates, yet CPI still clocks in at 6.5. Must be a misdirect for anyone of influence to pretend this is improvement
Friend-shore & re-shore . . . look at the complete cost. Yes, wages are far higher in the States, how much is that offset by things like energy costs and supply reliability. By world standards, electricity and natural gas are cheep in America. How much does it cost when you customer goes down the street where their store has the thing made in the States or Mexico and your store doesn't because it was made in Asia? Energy and reliability are only two factors for a short comment. Throw in another factor of the same equation with people in the States employed in manufacturing from the production floor, to machinery production, to maintenance, to software & maintenance, to engineering . . . and the beat goes on. It will be an expensive transition that is likely to come out on the other end with a dramatic improvement for the US consumer.
😅 death by a thousand's cut? OMG, that certainly sounds like hell! So this often happened after the Goldilocks? This episode unpacks so much! Tkz😮
Timestamps would help, Adam!
Everybody is concerned about the market going down but refusing to take advantage of it. The best decision I ever made was to investing regardless of the market conditions. I made over 100k. USD with an capital of 5k.USD within 3 months. Trust me guys the market is still very much profitable
Things you can invest In
👇👇
Real estate
Stock
Crypto
Bonds
@@afeesoluwanishola5929 Stocks, bitcoin are falling and bond yields are rising, but markets still don't seem convinced, the Federal Reserve will pursue plans to keep increasing interest rates until inflation is under control. I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $117k stock portfolio, what's the best way to take advantage of this bear market?
@@stephenpalmer8982 you just spoke my mind, all stocks are crashing, bitcoin and others are falling, how can one take advantage of you this time
@@stephenpalmer8982 Most time having knowledge or insight about a particular activity can as well be a pleasing exercise. I can boldly say that the digital market is one of the profitable money exchange services that elevates investors and their financial status.
@@stephenpalmer8982 The first step to successful investing is figuring out your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but is very advisable vou make use of a professional like I did. I invested in cryptocurrencies and l'm making a huge profits but this was only possible when I started working with en expert
Yes, unwind the epic bond bubble. Raise, raise, raise those rates. Get back to historical norms. The risk free rate should be 5 or 6%. Money should be expensive. Take the artifical support away from the economy. End it once and for all. Let economic forces work naturally. If you want to finance something, pay the freight - just like every generation before. There's no free lunch.
Australia 🇦🇺 🙋♂️ ...and we don't have the long term fixed mortgage rates like the US has - ours are only 5 years = a lot more refinancing and much higher repayments
More travel and demands on the supply will then create more inflation if there is actually any pent up demand still, thus Circling back to the same outcome, a crash. The only way to prevent hyperinflation if the fed pivots too soon will be forcing digital currency adoption and physically restricting purchases of assets and food. This may protect in short term, but those big guys not being forced to limit their spend then creates the same outcome. At the end of the day, we always come to the same outcome, which is that the average person needs to buy assets that are income producing and/or not taxable to shift wealth from the top. You can only tip the boat so far one way without it flipping, so it needs to tip.back the other way to the benefit of the consumer, or it will flip and hurt everyone badly
Corporations are people, Mr. Taggart.
Rate hikes cannot reduce inflation.
He thinks the stress and pains are going away lol
Wow!
I lost 15% of my money 2022 (not really, I cashed out early Jan 2022) but good news coming out of Asia!:
I can now lose everything by going to Macaw!
The Casinos are expecting a Great Year!
Sweet!
"The company I'm engaged with here..." - I thought you said you were the founder?
“Chinese Private Company” 😂😂😂😂 Ask Jack Ma how private they are! But good point on the Chinese tourist.
I think yr interviewee's opinion is A Glass Filled x 3 times
Adam Taggert, the most pleasant guy in finance.
Todays’ price action strongly disagrees
1 day trade do not indicate a trend .
Nothing goes up or down linearly.
I produced saunas in Wuhan China. Took 3-6 months in 2019-2020. Took 6-9 months in 2020-2021. Took 9 months and gave up after 2021-2022.
PS it’s a lie that in early 2020, they locked down. Your media told you that and they were working full throttle. If someone got sick, such like always before, they stayed home.
Some solid points but he’s missing the partnership we can develop with Mexico and their labor pool ads much more value than Chinese labor and closer to USA
One smart guy
Re: credit card debt. Banks are offering zero interest for 15 months on new cards. Some people who use to pay the balance each month are now letting the balance rise to build up cash reserves.
Unless you're planning to file bankruptcy, what's the point there? You'll have to surrender all that cash to pay off the debt soon anyways
@@ludwigvonmiseswasright4380 is 15 months soon?
@@one4change4thebetter yes....15 months is soon. Under what scenario dies a rich person load up money on a credit card, a d under what scenario does a poor person have the excess cash to pay $10,000 off in 15mo? Said poor person can only justify getting a $10,000 loan for 15months (which then changes to 26%) if they are within the 15months changing their cash flow by paying off a debt.
Adam, you should interview Peter Zhien ; he keeps talking about the demise of China so not a finance guy but talking about macro trends .
I like when you, Peter said: "It is according to plan."
Good question when the narrator asked how the Chinese ppl were able to save when they were forced to remain home? His answer puzzles me. How does factories keeping their lights on help the Chinese ppl save money??? Remember, the chinese ppl were rioting in the streets hoping to reopen the economy.
yeah i dont get that either but if you read robyn above she says they never locked down.
So our entire economic future is suddenly evolving around China now...what the?
All based on an debt receipt for 40%
IT in Eastern Europe is definitely not quality competitive. The problem is, if you are an employer trying to hire IT services the chances that you would be able to identify a superior candidate is essentially zero switch makes Eastern Europe a good choice since you won't be able to utilize the better quality in America and you're more likely to get grifted in America
4.00 mins in .... the Chinese consumer is also the Chinese worker ..... during lockup, how do the workers work? Unless all the locked up were allowed to go 2 their factory work. So either way, the West public were told lies. Not 2 mention the property collapse of EverGrande et al. Are we not being too optimistic?
Great stuff thanks
I disagree with this video. I work in manufacturing in the US 🇺🇸. We were deemed necessary. A friend works for Honda. They shut down because they couldn't get parts from China...
China causing inflation by reopening and they've been working and saving is contradictory.
America has policies that punish people for being responsible. For instance, people who worked their way through college instead of partying.
It's true we have lots of Americans who are eyeballs deep in debt and will default. But lots of those people have responsible family members who will take them in. The irresponsible will then live for free and keep spending.
People don’t care about earnings, they only care about liquidity. This is a popularity contest where value-investing is virtually dead. What will eventually happen to the $2.5 trillion in RRP?
you cannot declare that the digital transition will cost jobs - but insist on higher wages for having an argument for inflation.
... if there is inflation then it will be because the USD is moving closer toward its inner value ...
Complete counter argument on the far east than Kyle Bass and Mike Green. Their graphs look terrible but this could be the classic contrarian view. Do they pull us up and down? Mike thinks down......
The federal income tax is voluntary. I never did willingly volunteer. only out of ignorance, Happy to say have not paid a dime for 20 years now. I will volunteer for the army who takes down the IRS, central bankers and the like.
The market has had some healthy adjustment back to more reasonable PE ratio's, 9-22 in my opinion. However, there are still many growth stocks that have never made a profit and can't show a plan to have earnings in the next two years. They should have a $5.00 or less valuation in my opinion. Still lots of bubble valuations that need correction. Set up for a pump and dump, buyer beware.
Pump in progress
How do you define a white and blue collar worker ? I lived in a Blue Collar town in Northern NJ and the average income in the town was $105K and still considered blue collar
Blue collar as defined here, is rhe in-person work which can't be done from home. So, nursing is blue-collar, plumbing, welding, roofing..... maybe your blue collar town earned so much because it was on the east coast. I bet thar $105 didn't go far
White collar, is a person with no trade skill, or low skilled. Blue collar is higher intelligence with trade skills combining technical and physical.
@@duanejackson6718 thanks . I never knew that .
@@duanejackson6718 huh ?
Blue collar is physical/manual (electricians/plumber)
while
white collar is more intellectual /office job (teachers/nurse/secretary/etc)
@@sivi9741 , yes, because a blue-collar worker like your example of plumbers and electricians, can do the job of a white-collar worker because those are all skills they already have to do they're blue collar job. Whereas a white-collar worker can only do their white collar job and they can't do plumbing or electrical.
Another example a car salesman is White collar, a diesel mechanic is blue collar, the diesel mechanic can sell a car, but a car salesman cannot repair a diesel.
China is far and away the biggest economy in the world in terms of production and consumption. The US is ranked first only in inflated dollar value. Factor in China's production and deveopment throughout the Belt and Road system, and it is the greatest economic system in world history - and growing.
You should live there.
25:22 QT has only reduced the balance sheet by 4.3%, just a drop in the bucket, need another $8 trillion reduced.
Let's talk single payer non profit insurances.....this travel prediction is not as important as happy healthy workers.
There should not be profit in health insurance.
China’s lock down caused inflation, and supply chain issues, now reopening it will also cause inflation or help those supply chain issues?
"Has The Fed lost control?"
these guys are talking about inflation like no one saw this coming. well guess what, if you double the money supply bad things happen.
Are you planning on having a discussion with David Hunter again anytime soon?
China may be good for business people but the equity market is not for the retail investor. China is un-investible makes for a good, defensive strategy and China should not be confused as an emerging market.
Nope
Real Estate 30% of China’s economy is hemorrhaging and the Semiconductor sector is toast. They’ll spend their gold reserves on energy and soybeans because they have to import both. Not worth the risk investing Mexico labor is a 1/3 less in cost and resource rich.
One guest says one thing about the markets another says the opposite. The doom and gloom crowd tend to get the most clicks. This means nobody really knows and all a simple punter can do is stay the course investing in quality businesses, quality people, quality education, and quality time. Not much else you can do...
No there are times when things are more bullish or more bearish. Just watch the charts, it shows something coming in the not too distant future that doesn't happen often 00 08 covid etc. Then invest in quality when panic reigns!
@@mohamedAli-kj6fb Yes. But even without looking at the charts...we just experienced a never-before-seen 12 year bull run. At some point, it becomes mathematically impossible for there NOT to be a multi-year bear market.
The only thing guaranteed to happen is the Fed printing more money to save the wealthy schmucks falling assets. That is a given.
Central bankers are always, ALWAYS, far more concerned about entrenched inflation than unemployment or recession. The market and those expecting a 'pivot' will learn this lesson the hard way.
On the edge of my seat looking forward to part 2
This is only speculations! No one really knows for sure what is going to happen m!
This guy is based af.
Another great interview Adam...thanks!
Get the pampers! NO quarter
At $200 earnings, S&P would be somewhere between 2400 and 3400. It’s at almost 4000 right now 🙄 with 4.8% t bills.
yes sir plus S&P pays only 1.74% divvy, uhm let's take the T-bills yes
First off the narrative was that markets will hit new lows again in 2022 now its 2023…..inflation is starting to cool off and it’s evident in todays CPI numbers. This is the start of the effect of the tightening
Inflation has not cooled. Do you go to a supermarket? Have you paid an electric/gas bill?
The cpi is down, because the government depleted strategic reserves to flood global market and depress fuel prices. That's why inflation is lower.
UK FTSE markets near record highs. Our economy, political picture, NHS, cost of living crisis seem to be ignored.
The Market is 2X fair value.If you think a 2 year froth blow off is a Bear, you are sadly mistaken.Insiders are on a buyers strike should tell you all something.
Wealthion 🥇
While Chinese can now travel to Thailand the Chinese government hasn’t allowed group tours to leave. No doubt this will be allowed in due course. Interestingly there are now many Russian tourists in Thailand having a fun time. Perhaps things are not as bad economically in Russia as western MSM portrays?
Correct
6th, 12 January 2023
Hello 'Michael Pento.'
awesome guest, many great macro points.
Peter is great, but since being on mainstream channels such as cnbc, he has become very dovish, against rate hikes, much less libertarian austrian school, etc😔
Gorge Soros economy is kicking off in year 2023?
We don’t do a lot of business with China??? Uhhhhh
Yes ... they do a lot of business with us but not the other way around. Import vs Export.
Exogenous viruses are not out of the question when China opens.
🤣🤣🤣🤣
As a 23 year old I thank you for providing in depth financial education on a platform I will consume it.
TH-cam isn’t the best place to get this kind of information I feel, but this channel is a clear exception and very insightful
These videos are too long.