TIMESTAMPS: 00:01:50 How to Play China 00:11:49 The Hong Kong Banking System 00:14:36 2018 vs 1998 00:18:04 The Hong Kong Monetary Authority 00:23:19 Capital Flight from China 00:30:25 Endgame Scenarios 👉 Do you want even more content like this? And to see this video before we release it here? Become a member of Real Vision -- get started here: rvtv.io/membership
DaveBraga lol and without blinking I might add, the motivation behind his words as a pro American anti ccp doubles up with his incentive to help hedge funds against all the forex fluctuations that will happen throughout the trade wars and now transfer of wealth outside to the western world. Perhaps Singapore and other financial powerhouses may get a huge chunk of the rewards from the undeniably disgusting tactics by Kyle
I was thinking of using a Chinese company for a manufacturer. Head Office was in Hong Kong - Manufacturing was just 50 KM away in Mainland China. I had to pay them in USD. I could not pay them in CNY or HKD. So mainland China has purposefully made Hong Kong into a service economy - being the business front and money funneler of USD into the Chinese economy. Hong Kong companies are not allowed to have manufacturing in China - and still do business in HKD or CNY. If they want to have manufacturing in China and an Office in Hong Kong - they have to do business in USD - otherwsie they cannot do business. When Hong Kong was British run they could be an import export company - not have businesses in China - but do business with China. Now it is Chinese run - the Hong Kong companies were forced to move part of their business to China - then start doing import export in USD. And this was a requirement from the Chinese government... To weaken the power of the Hong Kong businesses. And to move the economic power of HongKong to mainland China. Part of Mainland China's power is from forcing Hong Kong companies to invest in mainland China... moving Hong Kong's economic might into China... and forcing Hong Kong to be the Financial Port for Mainland China. You cannot do import Export business with a Chinese company - unless you do it through Hong Kong - and you can only do business in USD.
I feel like I’m going to search all of Kyle Bass’s interviews and watch each one of them, maybe even more than once
4 ปีที่แล้ว
Kyle Bass's stocks have been growing at 1.5% per year according to Google. To put that into perspective, I make 10-30% quite easily. Would you like my advice?
@ Me too, but it is much easier with personal portfolio and lower amounts. I am on track of 100% this year. But what happened with HK curency 9 months later ant there isnt any significant drop?
Is Kyle just REALLY mad that his shorting of the Yuan didn't pan out, and is now going all in for another try? I find this channel really interesting, but also a bit one-note sometimes.
If the federal reserve reduce interest rates by 25-75 basis points this year, as implied by bond yields, then how does this affect this trade? I am guessing that it would also reduce the pressure on the HKD and hence postpone the reckoning that is discussed in the interview?
There is always an overshooting thus what is implied means absolutely nothing. Bond market is overly bearish but US macro is still decent. Like core inflationary pressures for instance, they will be positive at least for another year. Add rising oil core inflation and you have high geo risk enviroment, moderately high inflation at target with still running fundamentals at least in the yearly outlook. Thus FED lowering yields is overly bearish view taken by the "consensus" atmo. Literaly 7 months ago people were almost certain that FED will RISE yields, thus one can imagine the general view has shifted to the other side of the spectrum, but reality is somewhere in between. imho
China’s Debt is worse off than Hong Kong’s CHINA IS THE MOST LEVERAGED in real economic terms the actually GDP is lucky to be 2% for a variety of reasons-I’m getting actual input from Chinese Tax Authority senior official at great risk! He is looking at getting out-speaks volumes!
Ask yourself why Google is feeding you this, NOW? If the news is fake, Invision how this history lesson was fostered?fkn propaganda THIS CHANNEL SO FKN SKETCH.
THL LI its a simple commonsense that people worship Guo for syphoning money out of the public, and then condemning the very system he got his riches from. How ironic that the people that is supporting democracy are after all silently preaching that the world is ruled by the one country that Guo is hiding in, and that is the world we are in sadly...
Gotta say I hesitated to watch -- like what an HK story gonna teach me? But oh, boy am I glad I did. This video was really good -- I put it on my "must re-watch list". Thanks guys!
Hongkong is absolutely controled by the ccp, and became the happy pool of money laundry for the top officials of ccp like Jiang ze Min and Wang Qishan.
When China first took control of Hong Kong it unabashedly stated that it could and would take the money from individuals including expats and including financial institutions incl banks
Can anyone recommend a book. . .or video. . .that would explain the basics of what they're discussing here? I need something that simplifies the overall concepts so I can begin to get a handle on this. I do want to delve into this much more deeply than just the basics, but I need a simple explanation of the economic concepts involved to get me started. Any suggestions would be most appreciated!
Hmmm I would say, have you played monopoly? well the game ends when a player is the only one that owns everything right? so that's what the ccp is kind of doing (cheating using the bank since many private companies in china are half+ part of the state), while any capitalist would want the game to keep going and not go for all the cards on the board. or at least that's how I would explain it LOL
In short, China wants to Steal and is stealing the wealth from Hong Kong. Hong Kong used to be UK colony. It was a free trade port and economic engine. People got rich, China wanted to take the wealth. A 99 year lease was put in place. The lease came up, then after some turmoil, a new deal was cut giving a time frame till China could control fully Hong Kong. China is pushing the timeline up and arresting people inside Hong Kong and taking them back to China. Also China wants to take the wealth too. Just see that Jack Mia from Alibaba lost his fortune to 5 unnamed new share holders of his shares. In the end, the wealth creators are leaving and Hong Kong is having civil unrest and will collapse. China will take possession and it will degrade into chaos at first and then authoritarian control by China the end!
Frankly, Australia’s economy is like a ticking time bomb. Their government spends too much on welfare and humanitarian cause which is great if you’re a rich country but not having enough people, lack of manufacturing, heavy reliance on imports are basically a recipe for disaster. You can’t just rely on wagyu beef and mining to support the whole country. There is so much more that needs to be done. Solution: ease immigration laws and make it easy for the right people to call aistralia their new home. Non-muslims from malaysia, phillipines, and other south east asia will definitely be a great backbone for a growing country. 2. Ease taxation and provide incentives for SMEs 3. Stop allowing Muslims in for gods sake. Look at how they treat the non-muslims in malaysia, indonesia etc
Trump will Tweet that Hong Kong will now be treated as Chinese territory and subject to all the trade rules placed on Chinese trade. BOOM! Before this goes down I would love Trump to ask for all the man made or man enhanced military islands in China Sea to be demilitarized.
Charles Granata and for the USA to be subject to the same game and remove themselves from the islands they have claimed for themselves for military bases and countries they have attacked and stationed their troops there. Doesn’t make any difference for the tarriffs on Hk. Mind you, they are made in China
Short the HK Dollar... (there's one) Short the HK Property Market (there's two) Short the HK Banks (HSBC?) - (There's 3) Short the HK Property Developers (There's 4) Short any corporation that does 50% or more of its business there (There's 5) and that was just a couple of seconds thinking about it...
wow I diden't know and this, this is the first time I heard of the problem with Hong Kong, I have shorted Tesla but HSBC seems to be in worse shape by far!
In the end he goes "Well, there you have it!". Except we don't. He didn't say what the investment idea was. He didn't say how to trade it. He didn't say how to put the trade on or even what it is.
I wonder how much credit went into Mainland China or went through Mainland China to the Projects like Silk Road 2.0 and other Infrastructure Projects outside of China? Anyone curious?
I get the idea that some people think that USD in Hong Kong stops and circulates in Hong Kong. It doesn't... it sits in Hong Kong for about 2 days then moves into Mainland China. So to see the USD peg to HKD - is not correct. The Hong Kong USD peg is Mainland China buffering a CNY to USD peg. So it is more than just a Hong Kong currency / economic issue - it is a mainland China issue. So mainland China uses Hong Kong as a buffer and a funnel to get a hold of USD.
@@danesovic7585 Thanks for your response, I appreciate it because I really don't know much about currencies and their trade. Is there more to the opportunity here than just a chance for people who have invested in HK to get out? How does one bet against something from the outside if they don't already have a ton of HKDs.
In a forex trade, go Long USD and Short HKD, since the HKD is pegged to the dollar your downside is minimal and your upside is massive. That is the asymmetry that you can capitalize on. Also you can short bank stocks whose main profile is mortgage lending, also you can just short the Hong Kong stock market as a whole. I think the real deal is the forex trade.
You have NO IDEA of the money that flows through HK and BVI's which are totally related. For every single HK company there is a counterpart BVI company as well - because HK is a money pump. It comes in and goes out ... no one knows how much money - because HK is the most deregulated banking system in the world !!! Hong Kong is NOT just about Chinese money - it is about Global money !!
See no reason it cannot defend the peg at expense of economic deterioration. When hibor can go up to 300%, you won’t attack the peg, but other assets, which HKMA wont care
What are your thoughts on the proposal for Hong Kong to purchase the London Stock Exchange? This is going to tie UK's money with Hong Kong. My opinion is that this is a long term bad deal for the global economy.
Now: HKD -> USD peg Soon: HKD -> RMB -> USD managed exchange. All HKD deposits overnight will be converted to RMD and entire system in HK will be subject to capital controls. Thank daddy Xi!!
Kyle, I enjoy these interviews, but more your financial expertise! I Really enjoyed your interview with Miles, the Chinese businessman. I still have Major questions, about his allegiance and motives...Keep up the Great interviews, Very enlightening!
Ok, the HK dollar is set to crash as the reserves to fight it off are dwindling. The wealthy in HK are fleeing wholesale due to CCP pending Iron Fist rule. The banks are way over-leveraged in over-priced Realestate due in part with artificially low rates. The whole place is a huge house of cards with a hurricane on the way. So what is the investment advice? Short the HK dollar? Invest in US Treasuries as they run to the US dollar?
US treasuries are just as much of a ponzi scheme as the HK dollar. Almost the entire world economy is a ponzi scheme waiting to collapse. Gold, guns and ammo seems like a good bet.
I am not a financial person and I need to re watch this video however, I do think China is acting to shore up this problem. He said China needs money to maintain stability that they don't have but what they do have is a lot of very rich billionaires and it seems to me that they are using their money for government purposes like example of what just happened with Alibaba and it's owner
Very interesting discussion. As Kyle said earlier, HK's ports once operated 30% of China's shipping business -- today, it's down to 2%. HK's GDP today is $341.4 billion while China's is $12.2 trillion -- which is only about 2.8% of China's value. Thus, if HK goes south, mostly those in HK will be effected.
Yes, U.S knew it couldn't do anything about the chinese communist's. Nice! LOL. this is a checkmate for democracy U.S is letting hong kong's ship sink......
Great interview. Can you bring Kyle back for an update! Six months to go in his time-frame...and the USD/HKD just had a little jump on Friday....It could be about to unfold.
First, everyone needs to read Peter Zeihan's new book, "DisUnited Nations". Many interviews on YT. This gives the long term historical, geographic and military background for all over the world. Gives insight into what Bass is talking about. Second, as to China, their agriculture is so poor and worn out it is impossible for them to feed their population without massive imports. How do they buy imports without exporting? And this necessity is what brought about the debt crisis.
What are you talking about? He literally told everyone to sell their homes in 2007. This is the most liquid macro trade in since the dollar was taken off of the gold standard... Hes obviously already positioned himself but thats his fiduciary obligation to his investors. Watch and learn fam.
@@chickeninasal4381 You know nothing about me other than a comment or two on a youtube video, you're delirious. I was just condensing information, He was bearish housing... made billions. Tons of regular people had 3 or 4 houses in highly leveraged real estate areas... but you're going to have to find someone else to cry about being poor to.. Maybe you should start your own hedge fund if you know better than Kyle Bass bro. My point stands that Blind skepticism only hurts the skeptic.. if you are intelligent enough to be skeptic you should be intelligent enough to read data for yourself also.. this trade is much bigger than kyle bass its not like hes fading/lying to the market here.. Just chill on the Dunning-Kruger stuff man. Learn some things.
@@chickeninasal4381 i sold at the top of the market after owning for about 7 yrs. did fsbo at 1.8% fee, i made 12.5 times my down payment. vacationed, traveled and day traded for 2 yrs. after which the housing market was still going down. i then got a job, housing and coasted in to finally retirement. Barrett L is right about listening and learning beyond your own inherent belief system.
And he also doesn`t seem to understand that federal governments have printing presses. His argument is, who`s gonna buy all this government paper. The answer is....the government.
@@dutchymcdutch2553 I know...And Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe and Hungary. All the rare hyperinflation events. Then we look at the vast number of deflationary events. When people look at a country that lost WW1 and think it`s analogous to 2008 or 2019 America... Or a African country that`s run by a thug who`trying to cling to power. But if people like me say Bitcoin is the modern Tulipomania....well then. People say the analogy is false. Fact of the matter is Bass made one brilliant well timed call. All credit...and giant sack of cash to the winner. But how has he done against the indexes since then. I gamble on sports a lot. Everyone can have a good streak. Or a bad streak. But the grinder who makes consistent profits is the one with the good methodology.
Wait a minute.. Wasn't this guy talking about the collapse of Japan for the last 3 to 4 years and betting on it. Now he's talking about the collapse of China. What happened to his Japan angle? Forget about past predictions and Onward Ho ?
He mentions this at the end in the summary - along with China. His point is that no one gets them all right - fair enough. This one seems pretty significant.
@@samrolfe2563 The problem is his current pitch sounds just like his previous (failed) pitch. Are we better off rolling dice rather than listening to these gurus?
@@freddykrueger6571 Evidence is there for you to make your own assessment. He is simply presenting the basic facts - make your own mind up. He doesn't actually tell you what his final trades are. The absolute same can be said of Australia (mentioned in the piece). BOTH of these countries are defying gravity - both may continue to do so, but there is an absolute finality about the inevitability of both - they are completely and utterly overwhelmed with debt and entire consumed with FIRE economy - nothing can save them in the long term.
Hong kong economies is back by nothing ! The properties market is highly speculated and is ridiculous high , it is even more expensive than London , New york and Tokyo makes no sense.
This, the end of Hong Kong as the beacon of free enterprise in the east, will be a tragedy of epic proportions if Kyle is right. It's with sincere hospitality that I extend an invitation to all those of wealth and liberal spirit in Hong Kong. We in the USA would be better for your company and hope you choose to flee to our country.
But we don't want a mass importation of Chinese into my country. You have to do what other people do fight for your country. Like Europeans and white people did. A lot of people died fighting for freedom. Don't run to another people's country like cowards.
@@6530517 Just the way the whites fought for their counties in Rhodesia and South Africa, fought against communism, not against blacks, only to be beaten by the so called free world of US,UK EU, then left to rot. So yes, hard working free HK people should leave to wherever they can.
The real estate market in China and quality of construction in Chinese Construction is so bad in many cases it’s worthless and must be rebuilt-massive apartment blocks. The RMB is so over leveraged with even larger dark debt, including P2P is enormous-my internal information is from CCP tax office officials looking at ways to get out.
China Will Manage Your Being Short Hong Kong Dollars . Either By Taking HKD Out Of Their System ( Buy Up In Exchange For Yuan / Rimibi ) Or Just Flood It With HKD Which Will Deflate HKD And Then Offer Yuan / Rimibi As A Safe Currency . This Is Exactly Why They Are Trying To Kick USD ( US DOLLARS ) Out Of Hong Kong ...... Control , And Henceforth Manipulation is At Stake ........ From All Parties .
Iran just announced to use chinese yuan in stead of US dollar for their oil and team up with other five countries to de dollar and promote yuans. So what you think about it Mr Kyle Bass?
There is more gold sold than actual gold in the world. You can't change your stocks in gold for real gold. Gold stocks are just like bitcoin, worthless, only worth something if others will pay for it.
Gold Will Adjust With Inflation . It Is influenced By Demand And Manipulation . You Can Buy In To This " Game " Buying The Physical Metal ( Be Able To Actually Hold It ) EQUATES To Owning And Controlling The Actual Precious Metal And Influencing ( Possibly Controlling ) Your Out Come . You Just Have To Set Your Timings , ( Buying , Selling ) Accordingly .
"The HKMA’s assets, mostly foreign-exchange reserves, totaled $438 billion in May 2019 and have barely declined from their peak of $442 billion in January 2018. Under the Exchange Fund Ordinance, the regulation that provides the currency board’s mandate, all HKMA assets, including accumulated fiscal reserves and surpluses, are available to support the exchange rate." -From the June 24th WSJ column Mr. Bass cites. The Aggregate Balance has dropped from roughly HK$400B to HK$54B, as Mr. Bass says, but unless the quoted statement is entirely wrong, the HKMA has a lot of reserves to back the peg. Granted, the liquidity profile is difficult to assess. But when Mr. Bass mentions "unless they get the money from somewhere else in the economy", he's glossing over the reserve position of the HKMA, knowingly or unknowingly. The points about structural changes in the U.S. and Chinese economy since the peg causing significant imbalances are spot-on. But the HKMA appears stable at the for the time being, and a long way from a Southeast Asia currency crisis, leverage notwithstanding (also addressed in the WSJ column).
TIMESTAMPS:
00:01:50 How to Play China
00:11:49 The Hong Kong Banking System
00:14:36 2018 vs 1998
00:18:04 The Hong Kong Monetary Authority
00:23:19 Capital Flight from China
00:30:25 Endgame Scenarios
👉 Do you want even more content like this? And to see this video before we release it here? Become a member of Real Vision -- get started here: rvtv.io/membership
this guy is brilliant
People tend to overestimate the magnitude of things that happen quickly and underestimate things that evolve gradually.
Kyle really knows his stuff.....and explains it wonderfully without being arrogant.
Uhh, funny that Google is feeding this propaganda to the masses.
DaveBraga lol and without blinking I might add, the motivation behind his words as a pro American anti ccp doubles up with his incentive to help hedge funds against all the forex fluctuations that will happen throughout the trade wars and now transfer of wealth outside to the western world. Perhaps Singapore and other financial powerhouses may get a huge chunk of the rewards from the undeniably disgusting tactics by Kyle
Kyle knows jackshit
I totally agree. He also has a sound, informative and persuasive answer to every question.
Not really. He doesn't understand HK's currency board system at all.
This channel is My Netflix, please keep it up.
I was thinking of using a Chinese company for a manufacturer. Head Office was in Hong Kong - Manufacturing was just 50 KM away in Mainland China. I had to pay them in USD. I could not pay them in CNY or HKD. So mainland China has purposefully made Hong Kong into a service economy - being the business front and money funneler of USD into the Chinese economy. Hong Kong companies are not allowed to have manufacturing in China - and still do business in HKD or CNY. If they want to have manufacturing in China and an Office in Hong Kong - they have to do business in USD - otherwsie they cannot do business. When Hong Kong was British run they could be an import export company - not have businesses in China - but do business with China. Now it is Chinese run - the Hong Kong companies were forced to move part of their business to China - then start doing import export in USD. And this was a requirement from the Chinese government... To weaken the power of the Hong Kong businesses. And to move the economic power of HongKong to mainland China. Part of Mainland China's power is from forcing Hong Kong companies to invest in mainland China... moving Hong Kong's economic might into China... and forcing Hong Kong to be the Financial Port for Mainland China. You cannot do import Export business with a Chinese company - unless you do it through Hong Kong - and you can only do business in USD.
What is HK if there is no China?
李博 free
thx for sharing ur experience, as a chinese in mainland, it means a lot to me, I start to understand what the CCP is. thx bro.
why dont you using your own country's company?
This interview will be one for the ages. In 2019, we say to you in the future, observe and choose Freedom.
I just dug this back up for another view after watching it over a year ago. So relevant today…
I feel like I’m going to search all of Kyle Bass’s interviews and watch each one of them, maybe even more than once
Kyle Bass's stocks have been growing at 1.5% per year according to Google. To put that into perspective, I make 10-30% quite easily.
Would you like my advice?
He is amazing
@ I would...depending
@ Me too, but it is much easier with personal portfolio and lower amounts. I am on track of 100% this year.
But what happened with HK curency 9 months later ant there isnt any significant drop?
Awesome. Very lucid breakdown of the situation.
Gary Tse I need a primer . I don’t know about these things and cannot really follow. Certainly, it’s very interesting and important.
and completely wrong...
Not one mention of gold and silver as hedge against crash. Great interview.
This video is aging very well. Great call Kyle!
You’re telling me June 2020
it is aging really well today, this explains why HK is desperate to please Chinese authoritarian regime
Kyle’s hedge fund has been an absolute trainwreck for many many years.
His bets against China always age like milk...
@@ognjenvignjevic4148 haha
Omg thank you for this full upload, very appreciated!
אל תשחק אותה מדבר אנגלית
@@miltonfriedman3593 Why not ?
@@lifuranph.d.9440 ככה
@@miltonfriedman3593 So what ?
@@lifuranph.d.9440 מי?
Is Kyle just REALLY mad that his shorting of the Yuan didn't pan out, and is now going all in for another try? I find this channel really interesting, but also a bit one-note sometimes.
If the federal reserve reduce interest rates by 25-75 basis points this year, as implied by bond yields, then how does this affect this trade? I am guessing that it would also reduce the pressure on the HKD and hence postpone the reckoning that is discussed in the interview?
for hong kong and everyone else, its all about the credit and leverage now, american junk market seems much worse.
There is always an overshooting thus what is implied means absolutely nothing. Bond market is overly bearish but US macro is still decent. Like core inflationary pressures for instance, they will be positive at least for another year. Add rising oil core inflation and you have high geo risk enviroment, moderately high inflation at target with still running fundamentals at least in the yearly outlook. Thus FED lowering yields is overly bearish view taken by the "consensus" atmo. Literaly 7 months ago people were almost certain that FED will RISE yields, thus one can imagine the general view has shifted to the other side of the spectrum, but reality is somewhere in between. imho
@@FRANTAJE1 exactly where do you See fundamentals that get better?
@@FRANTAJE1 you can still delete your comment
@@MisterTwister222 Well joke is on me I see. haha
When the bubble burst for Japan - what happened? It will be 10 times worse when the Hong Kong / China bubble bursts.
Stephen Cotton Can not wait to see the drama rolls out.
make your own time machine bro, so you will never get caught by surprises. trollolol am i trolling or not? who knows!!
We want a new interview with Kyle Bass.
Psyvator Darkpsy Be interesting time hear his views now with the virus here ? Nice quote
He has one with Epoch Times. Saw it yesterday.
Kyle Bass sounds like a fashion line
R WG, you shouldn't be. It's his expertise
I
China’s Debt is worse off than Hong Kong’s CHINA IS THE MOST LEVERAGED in real economic terms the actually GDP is lucky to be 2% for a variety of reasons-I’m getting actual input from Chinese Tax Authority senior official at great risk! He is looking at getting out-speaks volumes!
Ask yourself why Google is feeding you this, NOW?
If the news is fake, Invision how this history lesson was fostered?fkn propaganda
THIS CHANNEL SO FKN SKETCH.
donetta trump ?!?.... do you wear a tinfoil hat, mrs donetta, 😆👎🏻
Watching this on September 3rd, 2019. The Hong Kong streetsare full of protesters.
Disaster ensues.
And the tanks
Paid for by US Intelligence agencies
Black-hand-CIA-Illuminati at work.
there is got to be a reason why HK youngers stand out and fight with CCP. support and keep tracking Hong Kong & ShinJang (Education Camp).
Kyle NEEDS to be in the administration
Brian Dailey the more he spread his ideology, the more he benefits off it from a financial sense.
Haha, he's too smart to be one of the illuminate puppets
New subscriber here, came across your interview with Guo and am hooked! Can't wait to watch more amazing insightful content!
THL LI its a simple commonsense that people worship Guo for syphoning money out of the public, and then condemning the very system he got his riches from. How ironic that the people that is supporting democracy are after all silently preaching that the world is ruled by the one country that Guo is hiding in, and that is the world we are in sadly...
Same with me!
Gotta say I hesitated to watch -- like what an HK story gonna teach me? But oh, boy am I glad I did. This video was really good -- I put it on my "must re-watch list". Thanks guys!
HKer here. It happened. Autonomy of HK has been lost. What happen to the peg?
All the best from the US. Nothing yet. Has to be time soon.
Hongkong is absolutely controled by the ccp, and became the happy pool of money laundry for the top officials of ccp like Jiang ze Min and Wang Qishan.
suslin Mew and you reckon it’s just for the chinese? There’s laundering in Hk from us controlled entities... gotta love a free market ;)
When China first took control of Hong Kong it unabashedly stated that it could and would take the money from individuals including expats and including financial institutions incl banks
Can anyone recommend a book. . .or video. . .that would explain the basics of what they're discussing here? I need something that simplifies the overall concepts so I can begin to get a handle on this. I do want to delve into this much more deeply than just the basics, but I need a simple explanation of the economic concepts involved to get me started. Any suggestions would be most appreciated!
Hmmm I would say, have you played monopoly? well the game ends when a player is the only one that owns everything right? so that's what the ccp is kind of doing (cheating using the bank since many private companies in china are half+ part of the state), while any capitalist would want the game to keep going and not go for all the cards on the board. or at least that's how I would explain it LOL
At the heart of it, its a debt crisis. There's a recent book called Big Debt Crises by Ray Dalio on this topic. Very comprehensive!
Fabozzi
In short, China wants to Steal and is stealing the wealth from Hong Kong. Hong Kong used to be UK colony. It was a free trade port and economic engine. People got rich, China wanted to take the wealth. A 99 year lease was put in place. The lease came up, then after some turmoil, a new deal was cut giving a time frame till China could control fully Hong Kong. China is pushing the timeline up and arresting people inside Hong Kong and taking them back to China. Also China wants to take the wealth too. Just see that Jack Mia from Alibaba lost his fortune to 5 unnamed new share holders of his shares. In the end, the wealth creators are leaving and Hong Kong is having civil unrest and will collapse. China will take possession and it will degrade into chaos at first and then authoritarian control by China the end!
@@superchuck3259 great comment! On point!
Would like Kyle to review the Australian debt bubble too!
Frankly, Australia’s economy is like a ticking time bomb. Their government spends too much on welfare and humanitarian cause which is great if you’re a rich country but not having enough people, lack of manufacturing, heavy reliance on imports are basically a recipe for disaster. You can’t just rely on wagyu beef and mining to support the whole country. There is so much more that needs to be done. Solution: ease immigration laws and make it easy for the right people to call aistralia their new home. Non-muslims from malaysia, phillipines, and other south east asia will definitely be a great backbone for a growing country. 2. Ease taxation and provide incentives for SMEs 3. Stop allowing Muslims in for gods sake. Look at how they treat the non-muslims in malaysia, indonesia etc
@@billiardgrandmastershifu554 Australia had a trade deficit of 1.4 per cent of GDP, much less than the US and Japan
Australia's Debt = China's Manipulation.
China is getting very close to destroying the autonomy of Hong Kong. If they continue, Hong Kong will be finished. Sad.
Trump will Tweet that Hong Kong will now be treated as Chinese territory and subject to all the trade rules placed on Chinese trade. BOOM!
Before this goes down I would love Trump to ask for all the man made or man enhanced military islands in China Sea to be demilitarized.
Charles Granata and for the USA to be subject to the same game and remove themselves from the islands they have claimed for themselves for military bases and countries they have attacked and stationed their troops there.
Doesn’t make any difference for the tarriffs on Hk. Mind you, they are made in China
Next is taiwan , what a irony , a battle of idiology between democracy and communism
Hong Kong people, come to the United States and bring your money and innovation. ❤️
And tanks are coming
Watched the whole thing. And I still don't know what the trade opportunity is...
Ditto. But then again I am dumb
Short the HK Dollar... (there's one)
Short the HK Property Market (there's two)
Short the HK Banks (HSBC?) - (There's 3)
Short the HK Property Developers (There's 4)
Short any corporation that does 50% or more of its business there (There's 5)
and that was just a couple of seconds thinking about it...
HSBC is full of South American drug money.
This is like the big short part 2 before it happens
You might want to hold your breath
Huge protests in Hong Kong over extraditions to mainland happening today.
Time to bring in the tanks.
Yes there sure is by everyday hk people, everybody is worried about this there.
And tanks.
That chart at 13:48 is crazy, my god the credit leverage.. and they have no clue
@Masked Singer Has his idea been disproven yet?
Fascinating insight into the HK/China monetary system for me. Thank you!
wow I diden't know and this, this is the first time I heard of the problem with Hong Kong, I have shorted Tesla but HSBC seems to be in worse shape by far!
"I have shorted Tesla" Doh! Sorry mate.
I wouldnt have shorted Tesla.
Never bet against an insane customer group and crazy fanbase
@@AsDfler12
George Hotz
What instrument has Kyle actually shorted? Is it just a massive short position on HKD?
That was not revealed, only speculated on, but it seems pretty obvious?
In the end he goes "Well, there you have it!". Except we don't. He didn't say what the investment idea was. He didn't say how to trade it. He didn't say how to put the trade on or even what it is.
They actually did say a few successful ways to trade it, but most retail traders are too slow to catch it.
They did change the title twice since I wrote this.
Damn that’s great interview
I wonder how much credit went into Mainland China or went through Mainland China to the Projects like Silk Road 2.0 and other Infrastructure Projects outside of China? Anyone curious?
Yes
17:43 me saying Yep when i don't understand a thing
Daily lending rate is for banks to banks but prime is for bank to public.
Singularity - thanks
@Me that might be true right about until you're faced with a medical emergency (in the US)
I get the idea that some people think that USD in Hong Kong stops and circulates in Hong Kong. It doesn't... it sits in Hong Kong for about 2 days then moves into Mainland China. So to see the USD peg to HKD - is not correct. The Hong Kong USD peg is Mainland China buffering a CNY to USD peg. So it is more than just a Hong Kong currency / economic issue - it is a mainland China issue. So mainland China uses Hong Kong as a buffer and a funnel to get a hold of USD.
I see the asymmetry, but what is the opportunity here?? all I heard was "leave Hong Kong"
Bet against HK dollar and against banks operating there.
@@danesovic7585 Thanks for your response, I appreciate it because I really don't know much about currencies and their trade. Is there more to the opportunity here than just a chance for people who have invested in HK to get out? How does one bet against something from the outside if they don't already have a ton of HKDs.
In a forex trade, go Long USD and Short HKD, since the HKD is pegged to the dollar your downside is minimal and your upside is massive. That is the asymmetry that you can capitalize on. Also you can short bank stocks whose main profile is mortgage lending, also you can just short the Hong Kong stock market as a whole. I think the real deal is the forex trade.
thankyou very much kyle
-from a Hongkonger
So the depletion of their dollar reserves will sound the bell that will awake everbody to the reality!
Print!
think china would not put dollars in there?
Second largest Hong Kong real estate company declared bankruptcy today. This video is happening today.
Fantastic video and brilliant analysis. Amazing!!! Thank you. : )))
This is very informative. Great interview.
You have NO IDEA of the money that flows through HK and BVI's which are totally related. For every single HK company there is a counterpart BVI company as well - because HK is a money pump. It comes in and goes out ... no one knows how much money - because HK is the most deregulated banking system in the world !!! Hong Kong is NOT just about Chinese money - it is about Global money !!
Well Said Sir .
Yes ABSOLUTELY Yes .
So short the HK stock market? How as the revolution going on affected this situation?
See no reason it cannot defend the peg at expense of economic deterioration. When hibor can go up to 300%, you won’t attack the peg, but other assets, which HKMA wont care
What are your thoughts on the proposal for Hong Kong to purchase the London Stock Exchange? This is going to tie UK's money with Hong Kong. My opinion is that this is a long term bad deal for the global economy.
Now: HKD -> USD peg
Soon: HKD -> RMB -> USD managed exchange. All HKD deposits overnight will be converted to RMD and entire system in HK will be subject to capital controls. Thank daddy Xi!!
That's why today we have an important protest in Hong Kong with more than a million of people. HongKongers don't trust CCP.
No one should trust the CCP @@Ken-S
Us uk further demise of hk dollar
25:09 the piece to pay attention to
Sort of like a type of symbiotic relationship as long as HK remains autonomous?
hkd hasn't lost value in past year. so was Bass wrong or just mistimed?
"The inmates running the asylum" lol
What ?
Kyle, I enjoy these interviews, but more your financial expertise! I Really enjoyed your interview
with Miles, the Chinese businessman. I still have Major questions, about his allegiance
and motives...Keep up the Great interviews, Very enlightening!
Silver is the big trade
I am up 40 % on silver in about 5 months
Bitcoin
@@vincentjohnson3763 What currency?
Ok, the HK dollar is set to crash as the reserves to fight it off are dwindling. The wealthy in HK are fleeing wholesale due to CCP pending Iron Fist rule. The banks are way over-leveraged in over-priced Realestate due in part with artificially low rates. The whole place is a huge house of cards with a hurricane on the way.
So what is the investment advice? Short the HK dollar? Invest in US Treasuries as they run to the US dollar?
US treasuries are just as much of a ponzi scheme as the HK dollar. Almost the entire world economy is a ponzi scheme waiting to collapse. Gold, guns and ammo seems like a good bet.
Shorting HK fixed income vs long US bonds is the big trade.
This is my new favorite channel!
You know there is a reason we say, never say never.
im working and listening to this & every few minutes I look back at the video with my hands on my face like... "THIS IS MIND BLOOOOWING"
Very educational! Thank you
I am not a financial person and I need to re watch this video however, I do think China is acting to shore up this problem. He said China needs money to maintain stability that they don't have but what they do have is a lot of very rich billionaires and it seems to me that they are using their money for government purposes like example of what just happened with Alibaba and it's owner
Lee has been selling his assets in China then Hong Kong years ago
Can we get this report?
I hope Kyle has a large security team - his opinions will anger some very powerful people.
Very interesting discussion. As Kyle said earlier, HK's ports once operated 30% of China's shipping business -- today, it's down to 2%. HK's GDP today is $341.4 billion while China's is $12.2 trillion -- which is only about 2.8% of China's value. Thus, if HK goes south, mostly those in HK will be effected.
Dying to hear an update now that HK has lost it’s special trade status w US. Assuming this is economic checkmate for HK.
Yes, U.S knew it couldn't do anything about the chinese communist's. Nice! LOL. this is a checkmate for democracy U.S is letting hong kong's ship sink......
Great interview. Can you bring Kyle back for an update! Six months to go in his time-frame...and the USD/HKD just had a little jump on Friday....It could be about to unfold.
Wat u mean?
Hong Kong is gone beyond repair.
Fantastic insights by Kyle Bass. Kudos to Raoul Paul and Real Vision as well for bringing the best content.
At what point will people admit he’s plain wrong
Thank you!
First, everyone needs to read Peter Zeihan's new book, "DisUnited Nations". Many interviews on YT. This gives the long term historical, geographic and military background for all over the world. Gives insight into what Bass is talking about.
Second, as to China, their agriculture is so poor and worn out it is impossible for them to feed their population without massive imports. How do they buy imports without exporting? And this necessity is what brought about the debt crisis.
he wouldn't tell you if it was true
What are you talking about? He literally told everyone to sell their homes in 2007. This is the most liquid macro trade in since the dollar was taken off of the gold standard... Hes obviously already positioned himself but thats his fiduciary obligation to his investors. Watch and learn fam.
@@chickeninasal4381 You know nothing about me other than a comment or two on a youtube video, you're delirious. I was just condensing information, He was bearish housing... made billions. Tons of regular people had 3 or 4 houses in highly leveraged real estate areas... but you're going to have to find someone else to cry about being poor to.. Maybe you should start your own hedge fund if you know better than Kyle Bass bro. My point stands that Blind skepticism only hurts the skeptic.. if you are intelligent enough to be skeptic you should be intelligent enough to read data for yourself also.. this trade is much bigger than kyle bass its not like hes fading/lying to the market here.. Just chill on the Dunning-Kruger stuff man. Learn some things.
:DD Like bunch of youtube people will move literaly the biggest market there is.
@@chickeninasal4381 i sold at the top of the market after owning for about 7 yrs. did fsbo at 1.8% fee, i made 12.5 times my down payment. vacationed, traveled and day traded for 2 yrs. after which the housing market was still going down. i then got a job, housing and coasted in to finally retirement. Barrett L is right about listening and learning beyond your own inherent belief system.
Thanks for a great video and exposition of what is happening.
so if you can leave Hong Kong leave it now?
no duh.
I am researching how to structure this trade this is awsome content, thank you !
Kyle bass never understood that markets can stay irrational longer than he can stay solvent.
well, he's still here managing large sums of money, so you're probably talking shit.
@@hotsiam3193 you're a f'ing noob go learn something before you vomit here
And he also doesn`t seem to understand that federal governments have printing presses. His argument is, who`s gonna buy all this government paper. The answer is....the government.
@@drmodestoesq Venezuala is printing like crazy, how is that going...
@@dutchymcdutch2553 I know...And Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe and Hungary. All the rare hyperinflation events.
Then we look at the vast number of deflationary events.
When people look at a country that lost WW1 and think it`s analogous to 2008 or 2019 America... Or a African country that`s run by a thug who`trying to cling to power.
But if people like me say Bitcoin is the modern Tulipomania....well then. People say the analogy is false.
Fact of the matter is Bass made one brilliant well timed call. All credit...and giant sack of cash to the winner. But how has he done against the indexes since then.
I gamble on sports a lot. Everyone can have a good streak. Or a bad streak. But the grinder who makes consistent profits is the one with the good methodology.
Another SUPERB interview! Thank you!
thats why they're getting into Bitcoin...
China's banned it.
@@Kawasakifreak1 no..... It's legal to own but not legal as for payment.
What has the Wyflu done to all of this?
Thank you for the explanation❣
OK... But how do I make money from this upcoming crash?
This segment should be called "My Hong Kong Friends." lol
What if the fed cuts rates and devalues the dollar, does that just ruin the timing of this trade?
I would like to see you guys particularly, Kyle give us his thoughts on Australia -- is it another Hong Kong ?
gullible travels it is the same story. Capital flight is waiting at the runway for takeoff clearance.
Kyle Bass needs to elaborate on this. It would be so interesting.
They were joking about hkd pegged to rmb, now we're facing with that possibility.
Wait a minute..
Wasn't this guy talking about the collapse of Japan for the last 3 to 4 years and betting on it.
Now he's talking about the collapse of China.
What happened to his Japan angle?
Forget about past predictions and Onward Ho ?
He mentions this at the end in the summary - along with China. His point is that no one gets them all right - fair enough. This one seems pretty significant.
@@samrolfe2563 The problem is his current pitch sounds just like his previous (failed) pitch. Are we better off rolling dice rather than listening to these gurus?
@@freddykrueger6571 Evidence is there for you to make your own assessment. He is simply presenting the basic facts - make your own mind up. He doesn't actually tell you what his final trades are. The absolute same can be said of Australia (mentioned in the piece). BOTH of these countries are defying gravity - both may continue to do so, but there is an absolute finality about the inevitability of both - they are completely and utterly overwhelmed with debt and entire consumed with FIRE economy - nothing can save them in the long term.
@@samrolfe2563 Do yourself a favour and listen to his Japan narrative from a couple of years ago. Same sh7t different day.
Does he mean *leveraged* when he says “levered”?
Hong kong economies is back by nothing ! The properties market is highly speculated and is ridiculous high , it is even more expensive than London , New york and Tokyo makes no sense.
ty for posting
This, the end of Hong Kong as the beacon of free enterprise in the east, will be a tragedy of epic proportions if Kyle is right. It's with sincere hospitality that I extend an invitation to all those of wealth and liberal spirit in Hong Kong. We in the USA would be better for your company and hope you choose to flee to our country.
your country is free as a bird's cage!
Don't come to the US. We are headed over a cliff.
But we don't want a mass importation of Chinese into my country. You have to do what other people do fight for your country. Like Europeans and white people did. A lot of people died fighting for freedom. Don't run to another people's country like cowards.
@TrueSkillRoulette 👎🏻hello,... you seem to be completely braindead OR you are just a paid propagsndist from CCP,... i can SMELL it...
@@6530517 Just the way the whites fought for their counties in Rhodesia and South Africa, fought against communism, not against blacks, only to be beaten by the so called free world of US,UK EU, then left to rot. So yes, hard working free HK people should leave to wherever they can.
18 months check, check... 1... 2... 3....
hehe. the sequel to crazy rich asians. crazy inflated asians
Crazians (my daughter is Asian so I can say that)
Oliver Rios Crazy looting Asians.
@@shericontrary2535lol that's funny Crasians!
Kyle will tell us ALL day what the problems are, but the soluitons are strictly reserved for him and his investors.
The real estate market in China and quality of construction in Chinese Construction is so bad in many cases it’s worthless and must be rebuilt-massive apartment blocks. The RMB is so over leveraged with even larger dark debt, including P2P is enormous-my internal information is from CCP tax office officials looking at ways to get out.
How do you short a Country? Short the Currency?
He Whom Controls The Monetary System .....
To Paraphrase .
So if we're to place a bet.... we're supposed to SHORT the HK Dollars? Say.. 12 to 18 months?
Unless they want that so you owe a shitload
China Will Manage Your Being Short Hong Kong Dollars .
Either By Taking HKD Out Of Their System ( Buy Up In Exchange For Yuan / Rimibi )
Or Just Flood It With HKD Which Will Deflate HKD And Then Offer Yuan / Rimibi As A Safe Currency .
This Is Exactly Why They Are Trying To Kick USD ( US DOLLARS ) Out Of Hong Kong ...... Control , And Henceforth Manipulation is At Stake ........ From All Parties .
Iran just announced to use chinese yuan in stead of US dollar for their oil and team up with other five countries to de dollar and promote yuans. So what you think about it Mr Kyle Bass?
I am buying gold it is neutral
There is more gold sold than actual gold in the world. You can't change your stocks in gold for real gold. Gold stocks are just like bitcoin, worthless, only worth something if others will pay for it.
Gold
Will Adjust With Inflation .
It Is influenced By Demand And Manipulation .
You Can Buy In To This " Game "
Buying The Physical Metal ( Be Able To Actually Hold It ) EQUATES To Owning And Controlling The Actual Precious Metal And Influencing ( Possibly Controlling ) Your Out Come .
You Just Have To Set Your Timings , ( Buying , Selling ) Accordingly .
"The HKMA’s assets, mostly foreign-exchange reserves, totaled $438 billion in May 2019 and have barely declined from their peak of $442 billion in January 2018. Under the Exchange Fund Ordinance, the regulation that provides the currency board’s mandate, all HKMA assets, including accumulated fiscal reserves and surpluses, are available to support the exchange rate."
-From the June 24th WSJ column Mr. Bass cites.
The Aggregate Balance has dropped from roughly HK$400B to HK$54B, as Mr. Bass says, but unless the quoted statement is entirely wrong, the HKMA has a lot of reserves to back the peg. Granted, the liquidity profile is difficult to assess. But when Mr. Bass mentions "unless they get the money from somewhere else in the economy", he's glossing over the reserve position of the HKMA, knowingly or unknowingly.
The points about structural changes in the U.S. and Chinese economy since the peg causing significant imbalances are spot-on. But the HKMA appears stable at the for the time being, and a long way from a Southeast Asia currency crisis, leverage notwithstanding (also addressed in the WSJ column).