TROPICAL UPDATE - Ernesto A Future Threat to Become A Hurricane
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 9 ก.ย. 2024
- Confidence is already fairly high before anything organized hits the Atlantic game board. Interests in the Caribbean Sea from the Lesser Antilles up to the Bahamas need to be monitoring. We then reach an enormous fork in the road where steering suggests it will eject northward before moving into the Southeast or the Gulf of Mexico. However, the strength of our pattern is in question thanks to Debby who continues to linger across the east US.
Beyond future Ernesto, odds favor Francine will enter the fray fairly quickly.
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Wow you're at 12K! Steadily growing. Thanks for the update! Never give up and keep persisting. Your growth shows that obviously you're doing something right. Keep it up!
I suppose as we continue to grow our community, others may try to attempt to knock it down. Thank you for your continued viewage, it means a lot
@@WxCenterNazario yup, don’t react to them. That’s what they do. Bring good people down because they are unhappy or mentally not well . Keep doing what you’re doing. You are awesome and we love your work and updates 🙏❤️
@@sharonlacey3176 💯
@@WxCenterNazario ❤️🔥 ofc!
I believe this was my second live chat and that was pitiful. I follow you DAILY and thoroughly appreciate your professionalism, enthusiasm and accuracy with the weather. I’m 70 years of age and possibly the oldest person in the chat. I’m headed to Fort Lauderdale this coming Sunday to board a cruise ship heading to the Bahamas on Monday the 12th so this information was very important to me. I lived gone thru Irma, Ian, charley, Francis, Jean … and yes Donna, Betsy and Cleo. These storms are not to be taken lightly. It’s a shame that immature trolls have to ruin a live stream for everyone else.
Thank you first off for being such a faithful follower. I can't help but "break character" from time to time when I see folks attempting to spoil our discussions, number one because of you all and number two because I work passionately to bring you guys as much information as possible. So forgive me for cracking in the midst of a discussion when I see the chat going into chaos because people are arguing. It's completely uncalled for.
@@WxCenterNazarioYou’re absolutely correct, and I love this response Nazario
If you ignore the bad guys, they'll go away! Honestly trolls exist you can't do anything about them. You just persist and focus on the positive. Never give trolls any leeway.😊
Amen! Same here! I'm in fort myers and Ian and Irma were nutttttty
@@zen_mindset1Well said!
Bro at the end of the day, I believe your data as presentation helps keep us information for preparation . Extremely detailed, Thank you. Do not give up. From Dominica.
Definitely never give up. Keep persisting! You got this, 😁
We won't be going anywhere Lord willing. Thank you so much for the awesome comment
@@WxCenterNazario ❤️🔥🙂
Excellent information. Your channel keeps me up to date on the weather. Very professional.
Thank you very much for watching
Nazario, I didn't catch the livestream because of other things, but I still support you and all of your work! I hope the trolls don't get to you, and you will keep doing what you love.
Sincerely from NomadAve06
We'll keep working hard for everyone regardless of what's tossed our way. You guys are very important to this community and despite efforts we have so much more that needs to be done
Thank you for the update. Watching closely from Bermuda. Appreciate your time in getting the information out!
This is the first time all hurricane season so far I encourage viewing from Bermuda! If steering holds, this could be a player in your weather down the road
@@WxCenterNazario thank you for your advice. I will continue to watch Great information. Don’t let the trolls get you down!
Thank you for taking the time for updates....you are appreciated
Your support is sincerely appreciated!
You rock Naz, Keep doing what you are doing. It's valuable. What you do can save lives. Life is always a series of possibilities and many people value knowing them.
Appreciate this greatly. One of the primary reasons I constantly grind away to get as much information out to you all as possible. It's all about relaying the critical message so folks can hopefully take heed
Watching from BARBADOS
Your information is valuable. I like fish storms.
Blessings
Fish storms are usually the best storms for many
G.M. Naz from the Cayman Islands 🇰🇾 ❤️🇰🇾. Thanks for your detailed views of 🌀🏝️🌀to us here in the Caribbean.
Always grateful to have you watching from down there. After Beryl, I'm not taking any chances missing a forecast if it plays a role in your weather
I just found you.will keep up with your program. The whole world has gone insane. This causes atmosphere to get much more catastrophic.
Thankyou for all you do
And thank you for your continued support, it is the blood of our channel
Thank you for the update! I missed the live stream, but just finished watching the recording. Love all the detailed explanations that you share with the viewers. It’s fascinating!
Happy that you enjoy the detailed breakdowns! Still need to work on explaining a bit better for the non-weather folk, but I appreciate you all allowing me the time to practice :)
thanks for update. I appreciate your enthusiasm accuracy and you always pin point with accuracy ...as far as negativeness in chats I would ignore those just focus on what you need to focus on. If you accuse you of any stupidity I would ignore those you can't please everyone & I should know that -I'm a working musician. You're doing awesome.
Much appreciated! And thank you for the kind words and feedback. Only way we can improve.
Just so you know, I missed the live but I did watch and like the video. 😊❤
As anticipated! Haha, appreciate your continued support Sharon
Thanks, interesting how the storms come through. Thanks I’ll be watching.
And thank you for always tuning in
Naz I sincerely appreciate you taking time to keep us informed about what to possibly expect with regards to the tropics. We have much to watch and dare I say I'm excited! I always look forward to your live streams . Try not to let the trolls detail things though. TBH it takes away from your important messages your good at getting across. Ignore them. They aren't worth your time. Your way better than those losers.
Glad you're always looking forward to more! We'll see you again very soon in our next discussion, definitely lots to discuss as we move through the next couple months
I've learned more in the short time subscribed to your channel than a lifetime watching Chief Meteorologist around the country. Find all of this very interesting . Thanks for all of your great analysis and hard work keeping us up to date and beyond
Lord willing not only can this channel continue growing but I can mentor more and more as time goes on. Thank you for the very kind words and genuine support
@@WxCenterNazario I hit the bell and will share 🙏
@@kenny.g727 much, much appreciated!
Great info. Subscribed from SW Florida
Happy to have you! Thanks for tuning in
Thank you. You do an awesome job.❤
Much appreciated!
Your doing great, thanks again.
Can say the same to you, thank you!
14:49 This was literally my reaction when I flicked through the CHI anomaly thing with the CFS yesterday 😂😂 its literally the deepest colour scale possible!! One thing though, the fact the strong MJO keeps moving quite rapidly instead of being semi-stationary like with 2020 is maybe a difference between our current cool-nuetral pattern and the La Nina pattern that was forecast several months ago? I know trades will return soon for the rest of August so we'll see if in September that cause the MJO to stick over Africa and Indian Ocean for more time 🤔
I aim to review all the data before getting in front of you guys, but that was as GENUINE of a response as I could have given lol... the standing wave will pay us back with quality tropical waves that bare monitoring from start to finish. It does appear the MJO will be a bit more progressive than it was in 2020, but of course with how much our models have been making adjustments we'll need to see what the analyzed pattern looks like as we go over the next week or two
That mountain chain is called Entoto Mountains in Ethiopia
Thank you for plugging this in!! Saved me some time doing background homework
@@WxCenterNazarionot a problem!
@@WxCenterNazario gonna have to do some research on my end about that mountain chain and see if we have to same info for next livestream lol
@@Space_FL always here for more research
You are the best. 🎉 I like everything you have showed me.
I miss your live stream but so grateful for your updates.
Sorry you couldn't make it! We will meet again very soon
Love your channel. Love your professionalism and knowledge of the weather. Appreciate all your time. Big hugs.
Thank you much!
Naz thanks for the update sorry i missed the stream if i was there i would have taken care of those trolls😒
No worries at all! This was a last minute decision on my part. Wasn't going to leave the community without any overnight information. Next time buddy
Thank you!
Very welcome!
Earned my sub! Following you every step of the way and aeen you here and there but was always busy and would just listen cause driving to my installs for work lol so thats my not sub excuse
Haha no worries at all! Regardless thanks so much for joining the community
Awesome analysis as always. Gots to look past these trolls as they would always slither their way into videos. Whicxh serves as evidence that youre doing the RIGHT thing you seeee
Thank you, and I concur. Just have to keep on keeping on as they say
Passion steers the boat. Keep up the great work.
Agreed, and thank you kindly
This is not military this is TH-cam ignore the trolls just acknowledge the good people the trolls will dissappear
Concur. Like I said, passionate about the info I present to you all. Still learning to avoid delving into the negativity, because it derails the flow of the discussion
@@WxCenterNazario I would TOTALLY IGNORE THE TROLLS and tell your viewers to go ahead and post their comments (to boost the ‘whatever’s’) and you will try to answer as many comments as you can when the live stream is over. YOU control what’s going on … don’t let others control you (spoken from a true grandma).
@@user-ku4xu1wm9k love the guidance and feedback. Thank you kindly!
Just so you know...I didn't make the live but I did watch and like the video. ☺️
@@sharonjackson1216 thank you much!!
I missed today's live but watched the replay, great, informative stream as usual. Going to be another interesting forecast with future Ernesto, I recall the initial Euro had Debby taking that east/out to sea track as well and it ended up not happening. Regarding trolls; they are in every live stream out there, just means you're getting noticed. I've never done any TH-cam moderation but if you ever find yourself in need of one and nobody else is available, I'd be willing to drop the ban hammer on trolls trying to disrupt the discussion; we have such a cool community here I'd hate to see it disrupted by idiots.
The end of this comment is why at times I come off as "rude" or "short" You hit it on the money. I'd happily give you the chance to throw the hammer down if need be, just let me know a way to contact you off here if possible
A great information ! ❤🙏🏻
Glad it was helpful!
Love your videos
Thank you!
Thank you for these updates. Keep them up, brother.
You got it!
It's ok Nazario I like you. ❤
Thank you very much :)
I am glad I found you.
Charleston SC might get drowned out all these storms🙏🏾
Let's hope not, Debby is almost finished
Thanks for your updates great as always watching closely from St.lucia.
Great to have you with us! Your islands will likely feel affects as this comes through
The farmers almanac states a hurricane threat on the Gulf Coast in the south east between 28th 31st.
Also a Hurricane threat to the South central states in the Gulf coast between 28th to 31 of August. Their pretty acrurate!
We shall see! Watching everything feverishly as we quickly approach the historical peak point of the season
Hope to God Jamaica is not in the path, because we can't take another storm, Beryl was a disaster
You can rest easy for the time being and focus on relief and recovery. I don't see anything coming at JM anytime soon. Naturally, if that changes I will send out info as early as I can. Where we stand currently the next system should miss to the east. I will keep you all in mind!
Headed for a surf vacation to the Outer Banks (NC) next Friday. Looks like I'm in for some decent waves!
Just be cautious. These storms especially the deeper hurricanes off the coast can really instigate hefty rip currents. Regardless of experience, just be aware :)
Part of learning, the weather is learning physics and mathematics it takes training and experience that’s why you got a degree inmeteorology. It’s important to realize the computer models that you look at those are computer programs that use math physics, and calculation to simulate what the atmosphere could look like on a particular day. And for those people who think you are hyping stuff up, I would save that at the very end of the hurricane season for any accountability or criticism. Let’s get through the hurricane season first then I would be open for criticism if I did the web after I can tell you what I know what I don’t know. But should caution that the season could be a supercharged one because of the anticipation of Va and the record warm water temperatures on which some of that is partially due to human cause climate change.
It seems we're getting very close to the full vision of what 2024's season will look like. And I completely agree, we can hot wash the rights and wrongs, do's and do not's, once the season has concluded.
Mother Nature not being nice to her Children.Fires,Floods,Volcano Eruptions,Earth Quakes. oh my.
Was just reading about the earthquakes and tsunami that occurred in Japan
@@WxCenterNazario SE Japan Nagasaki and Hiroshima US Atomic Bomb attack August 1945.location.
I have learned a lot
Mark Weatherman Plus has future storms one can be a Cat 4 for the east coast that could hit NC and bring a 13-18 foot storm surge NC/VA. Ten days. I remember they knew 2 weeks ahead that Katrina would have a 150 mile wide eye and Mayor Nagin didn't get the info till 2 days before impact people need more time than that to evacuate.
Currently not concerned with anything tropical entering the Gulf of Mexico thankfully. Of course if anything shows signs of changing you will get that across your notifications immediately
That's not accurate about Hurricane Katrina. We literally sat here Thursday night and it was an East Coast Florida problem. Went to work on Friday and looked at models and they shifted that morning to central and West coast of Florida. That afternoon they were flip flopping from Alabama to Mississippi. It wasn't until Saturday afternoon / Sunday morning did they narrow it down to NOLA. Katrina hit Monday morning. I don't think anyone knew Katrina would have a 150 mile wide eye 2 weeks out. I don't know if you're advocating for Weatherman Plus, but EVERY thumbnail has the same mantra "scream Cat 5, draw 27 arrows, and sell sell sell" for clicks. I myself can do with out the scare / fear tactics.
Tha k you
WELCOME ERNESTO.
Just about arrived!
Nazario i love your updates
THIS REALLY SUXX< UNCLE UNCLE !
BARBADOS is over cast now
We getting alot of rain now
Rain and storms may be the song and dance for much of August. Please be on the look out for what's headed in from the east
🦋🌻🍄🙏
Thank you for watching!
I am hearing “ favorable” as “ dangerous”; presuming that is what you are saying as in, “Watch Out!!”
Watch out and be prepared especially if you reside in the eastern Caribbean Sea
HEY, NO SHOUTING!!!
Being civilized isn’t an unrealistic goal
I was not expecting a stream, which is why I was not on.
No worries, no one was.. Made the decision mid morning to pop live before the day got away
How ready should Florida be?
If you go back about 5 years, a disturbance sitting in the same location would have been named and show intensity. Now they dont have a clue, even once it's on your DOORSTEP. The Father said he would take understanding out of the land in the last days. This is no coincidence, its prophesy.
We shall see
If Francine follows Ernesto right behind, is Belize a target?
Very unlikely. Not seeing much of anything for the greater West Carib or the Gulf of Mexico for a while. Still lots of time to watch though
Funny. I can’t even find a cluster of thunderstorms in that area in question…
Correct, because it isn't there yet
Do I have time to go to the Bahamas next week on a cruise ship? This may be a stupid question but do you know the wave heights around the Bahamas and that general area ?
We can look at forecasted wave heights, but we’re pretty far out still to really give a quality estimate. Next week Bahamas will be in the crosshairs possibly for this upcoming feature
Do u think Tallahassee will be impacted with the next two storms
It’s a little too far out for exact details, we’re talking about next week at the earliest. Just remember, if the storm develops quickly, the less likely it affects anything other than shipping. But if it develops slowly then it could potentially affect us in the future
Next two storms don't look likely. This first will likely rocket up our east coast, especially if it continues to show reinforcing cooler air and frontal activity along the United States east coast. Currently it seems the one following after may take a similar path, but we're watching
I’m very concerned about back to back category 4 landfall on outer banks one modol showing European will it happen my question please I’m very concerned about the modol run gave me worry
There’s no way to tell whether any tropical system will affect the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The early models is just a reference point, not a forecast. It’s just telling you that there’s a probability of a tropical system during a certain time period. As Nazario explains, take 10 day forecasts with a grain of salt and don’t let other TH-cam platforms scare you with overhyped predictions either
Just need to keep monitoring. I am closely watching what occurs over our country and up in Canada, and even further west than there. These variables will completely dictate what occurs in the Atlantic. No worries yet, we're simply watching and forecasting for now
cant get on the live chat
Likely because you’re joining after the fact
If 18z is happy hour, then is 06z a hangover?
I love this haha
WELCOME TO HURRICANE SEASON USA
Peak season prepared to open their doors for business
bunch of karens in your chat
Lol one way to describe them
Is it coming to south Florida
Yes.
@@Medicranger that's good to know. Now I have to go buy some glue to install my shutters
@@Medicranger lol
If the pattern holds as expected now, Florida is just about entirely off the table
@@WxCenterNazario Still way too early
Stop creating chaos.
How is Nazario creating chaos?
They had nofhing to say😂@@gregd4633
@conniegravelle1803 Nazario is not creating chaos. He just wants to inform us about the weather.
If I had that much power, I probably wouldn't be here on TH-cam
@connie ....please explain how he is creating chaos ??? David is one of the least chaotic presenters out there. He doesn't use click bait and scare tactics to get views 🙄
Why are u so rude?????
Just imagine people attacking you just for sharing your thoughts. This is why I’m very reluctant to start my own TH-cam channel based on American justice system because I’m actually a attorney, because I don’t have the patience for nonsense
Definitely felt I was more stern, simply because of folks causing ruckus for the community.
Yeah, all you TH-cam weather guys said the same thing about Debbie and we see what happened. Not gonna believe that bullshit gonna turn and go out to see crap no more. I should just start my own TH-cam weather channel since you don’t have to really know anything.
If you took the time to watch the recurring updates you’d know this statement is entirely false. Feel free to start a TH-cam channel and broadcast, you’ll come to realize atmospheric science is a very slippery slope
@@WxCenterNazario I hope you are doing alright, this hate is unacceptable.
@@NomadAve06-ab2 appreciate you checking up! We will continue to go to work for everyone no matter what
They always blow it up out of proportion. Debby did NOTHING here in SC where I am.
Was there a need to comment though, what did you gain out of that? Like seriously. And the ghetto/foul language is completely uncalled for. Please grow up