AI HYPE - Explained by Computer Scientist || El Podcast EP48
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 9 มิ.ย. 2024
- Join El Podcast Host, Jesse Wright, in a thought-provoking conversation with special guest Dr. Emmanuel Maggiori (computer scientist) as they dissect the reality of AI applications amidst the prevailing hype. Drawing from his extensive experience in the tech industry, Emmanuel sheds light on the nuanced challenges and ethical considerations surrounding AI implementation. The discussion navigates through real-world examples, illustrating the importance of practical, problem-solving approaches over exaggerated claims. Listeners are encouraged to reevaluate their understanding of AI's capabilities and explore ventures that offer tangible value. Tune in for a candid exploration of the intersection between AI, business, and genuine human needs.
Subscribe now and join us for this engaging and informative episode!
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CHAPTERS
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00:00 Intro/Start
01:01 Tech Jobs are Overstaffed
10:02 The Boundaries of AI, Machine Learning and Self-Driving Cars
19:22 Bill Gates, Elon Musk & Decoding the Motives of Tech Giants
23:57 From Chat GPT to Skynet
30:01 Career Paths in the Age of AI
40:26 Unpacking AI Research Biases
43:36 AI Girlfriends
48:34 Good Enough vs. Excellent Work: Thriving Amidst AI Transitions
58:44 AI Fears: Surveillance & Censorship
01:05:30 Amazon Fresh and AI Deception
01:12:13 AI…More Fantasy than Fact
01:19:48 Investing in Real Solutions
Special Thanks to Dr. Emmanuel Maggiori
BOOK: Smart Until It's Dumb: Why artificial intelligence keeps making epic mistakes (and why the AI bubble will burst)
a.co/d/6jt4V9E
WEBSITE: emaggiori.com/
Linkedin: / emaggiori
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I have worked in Tech all my life and I have never seen someone be so honest about what the industry is actually like as an engineer or developer good work
But this guy knows nothing about AI. With all due respect, he sounds like a fool. He does NOT understand how LLMs work. they are not coded liek expert systems, they are grown from data, we have no idea how they actually operate and hence why they make certain decisions
@@TheManinBlack9054and your reasoning is why we can't ultimately trust their output beyond providing entertainment value. If it has any level of importance you have to double check anyways.
Why is everyone complaining about the "shortage of good developers" if the job is so easy? Why are companies putting candidates through 3 or 4 rounds of technical interviews if you only need to work 6 hours every month? If this job was so easy they could save everyone a lot of time by simply hiring anyone on the spot to work 6 hours in 5 months.
Also, it takes years to hone your skill at almost anything, whether you're a mechanic, plumber or architect but the tech industry is the only one where people with tons of experience and knowledge are considered "overpaid". You can't be serious?
You know he does not understand software development if he thinks you can change two paragraphs of code? in ten minutes. Did he run any tests, does he understand the system? probably used to altering code on Jupyter Notebooks.
Nah, he took one (let's assume not made up) example of him in investment bank and extrapolated it to entire tech industry.
3 hours of work in 5 months - oh please tell me the name of that investment bank, I'd love to work there because over the last decade all places I worked in (all of them big and well known companies) I and folks around me were constantly overworked and on the edge of burnout.
I used to work as an art director for a small indie game studio and honestly I left my job and started doing freelance because of exactly the same reason. It got to a point where the games were just focused on marketing and sales, my input to it became solely relevant to just make it marketable and "current" rather than creating something interesting which was what drove me to become an artist in the first place. I now do a heck of a lot more work as a freelancer than I ever did and enjoy pretty much every bit of it. I honestly get a lot of projects because people generally want a human to interact with and tell their ideas and want input from a human who understand their idea on a similar level. So I think most people have already realized that the whole Gen AI art thing is just not working and probably will never satisfy their requirement for "art". The only thing I have to add from my experience is that being a human and communicating with others on a human level as to what they want along with the expertise in your field is pretty much the order of the day.
My thoughts exactly. Too many "indie games" (and this goes for ones made by single developers as well) are all about being marketable and "current" as you put it, or trendy such that they fit into the mold, or I should say stereotype, of what people think of when they hear the term "indie game." It's all marketing and there are very few original and creative things going on in the indie space, which is odd considering how the indie space is considered something that's super creative and innovative compared to AAA games. To me it just seems like indie games are falling into the same traps as AAA games, but on a much smaller budget.
Yes with art, people should not and generally do not really know what they want. It's more up to the artist to create the vision. I'm not familiar at all in software generated games. I come from retired graphic designer turned professional artist painter for the same reason that graphic design is more towards marketing than a creative vision. AI fails to understand human emotions and can only generate what seems popular. AI has more in common to how the narcissist is only left with copying what he/she sees in normal folks emotional reactions. It can't take concepts from one visualization and integrate into other visualizations. It is stuck in only what humans have shown.
Such ideas that humans may need for the future maybe like "creating an highly enjoyable sport where humans don't compete for highest scores" Where few examples exist today, maybe fishing or atlatl competition, where the joy is only personal best score of the year. Self improvement type, where competitors are cheering and helping others succeed.
AI works great in such as managing labor by the book. Is what most labor managers are taught today and why they are failing miserably. It's narcism. The great Industrial Age was ran by managers with unique understandings of people. So yes, AI will likely replace millions of these narcissist managers and industry will be left with the same employment failures.
What a sober, mature approach to these developments ❤
Sober, mature, and completely ignorant...
@@OnigoroshiZerowhat would be the right approach?
Man, what universe are these guys living in? I had 20 years of hard death marches and 60-hour weeks. Nothing but working my butt off.
@@relly793 Mostly e-commerce, but thankfully retired now.
i am working in software since 1993, the jobs that require actual work are those they pay the least, but the upper stages of the food pyramid do fit his description. the entire industry is mostly useless and where it is not useless it is harmful
@@sillysad3198I'm sorry....you just described every industry... software, ai etc are only different in the fast hiring/lay-off cycle. Every industry the people at the top work less. Even middle management with endless meetings with no seemingly productive outcomes (I've wasted so much time in those meetings).
Ai agents don't sleep, or.need coffee breaks.
that seems a familiar pattern in a lot of professions @@sillysad3198
@@sillysad3198
I've been in the industry since 92 and I've only heard this narrative recently. The narrative used to be that we all have to leave the field in our 30s due to burnout.
25 years in IT and I confirm 100% what this fellow has said. The stuff I have seen....1GB spreadsheets that require guys working 24/7 to make sure it doesn't cras. AI is still a very very far fantasy for most businesses. In the 90s UML tools were supposed to replace developers...yeah right.
Only 1 month later, and your comment has aged like milk. Your 25 years in IT just show that you were wasted expenses, because you definitely have no idea about the field or AI.
@@OnigoroshiZero I studied AI while you were still wetting your diapers kid. AI is a fraud.
@@OnigoroshiZero Nothing has changed fundamentally. You are just buying into the hype. Let me guess - you heard about chatgpt 4o and you think NOW ITS GOING TO CHANGE EVERYTHING! Right? XD Like all the previous ones... Hallucinations are there, will be. It gets marginally better but will not do 100% of work for you. Buy into hype if you want, I really dont care. Its more of the same.
Definitely? Aged like milk? That does not sound like a professional...im intrigued..what is your profession?
You have 25 years of outdated knowledge…
I worked very hard and intensly in all my tech jobs. Often in Saturdays and Sundays. I'm software engineer. I'm exhausted.
the only way to make real money is investing savings overtime or having a successful business. Labor helps for survival, but thats it.
That's other facet of same problem - faqed up organisation and non-existant project and resource management.
His explanation of how AI works was presented as if it were damning evidence against current methodologies, but that's not the case. The "function finding" capability of AI in controlled environments is what makes it so powerful. Machines can learn to perform a wide variety of tasks without explicit instruction, which is crucial in domains where the steps are unknown or too complex to write out.
Interestingly, adding more real-world tasks to a model's training set can improve performance across those tasks, even if they seem unrelated. For example, teaching a model the difference between a dog and a cat can enhance its ability to perform other tasks. Some researchers believe this might be due to a form of model pruning, where useless paths are avoided, hinting at an emerging general intelligence.
This has led to the adoption of a "more data and modalities" approach, hoping for exponential performance increases. However, so far, the gains have been marginal. We still don't know if this generalization will extend to edge cases not in the data. Technologies like self-driving cars continue to struggle with edge cases and lack a comprehensive world model.
As far as whether or not AI will go rouge, I think that is unlikely. That doesn't mean it isn't possible though. You talk about how the constraints put on AI are currently integral to their success in completing their tasks, but that doesn't preclude someone from making an AI without such limited capabilities. So I don't really understand how you can state the problem, but in the same breath claim it won't be a problem, just because. In an almost child-like curiosity I have to ask, "because why?"
I understand we don't yet have the level of AI that would even be considered dangerous, but I don't want to risk everything "just because". So maybe we should start thinking about the why right now.
we have a self driving floor cleaner at work. we have QR codes posted all over where we can drive up to the QR code and scan it in training mode and manually drive the scrubber as it cleans to learn the rout for the next time it scrubs. The downside of driving on it's own is it does not know the difference between a more saturated dirty spot on the floor or a mild spot on the floor. Or the difference between dirt or a rug and can run over the rug and get it caught in the drivers that scrub the floor. I link my phone to the machine so when I run it on auto it gives me a play by play. To put it simply... A machine I have to chase around multiple times to hit the reset button because it went off track or it thought something was in its way and does not know what to do.
You will be charged and found guilty of not utilizing AI probably, since now every idiot out there believes it (whatever AI it is they speak of I do not know) scores so called Einstein level of IQ. But, people who are trying to utilize AI to do something meaningful already experienced AI, already sees AI is no magic wand at all.
We had a similar thing at a warehouse I had worked at. We supplied parts to a single customer that was attached to our warehouse, and management decided to get these automated robots to drive orders back and forth. They ended up having to keep all the people the hots were meant to replace just to cover the robots when they inevitably messed up, and hire extra people to take care of the robots. Their great automation initiative cost them about a million dollars upfront and only managed to increase their overhead. It really is just a bunch of hype so useless middle management types can make themselves seem useful, since without them the workers would just continue to come in and get the job done, and no useless middle manager wants to accept that reality.
Everyone I know that owned one of those put it in the closet and used a broom.
Imagine, a human and broom is cheaper, faster and more accurate. AI..robot expensive garbage.
Give it 10 years. Even then. Why spend 30,000 dollars to sweep?
@@randymulder9105 why spend $30,000 recurringly? If the floor cleaner is good enough, and mark my words they will get good enough, you will save a lot of money paying 30,000 for a floor cleaner with the right application of course
Yet it’s still going to replace some of the jobs at your company.
I'm sorry but I'm a pro architect/developer and been a contractor for 20+ years, a lot of it in finance. This 'idleness' that you're describing just doesn't ring a bell, and I mean I've been at like 20-30 clients and this has never happened to me. I think what's actually happening is that you're just one of these people whose participation is talking instead of coding and you're not hired into positions where the actual work happens. If you're some sort of "AI scientist", I think a lot of that work just doesn't exist, albeit companies might hire people with the expectation that they'd be useful in the future.
I agree. Something is really off here!
WOW, I have been working for the wrong companies. I have been in IT for 30 years and a developer for 20 plus. At all the companies I worked for I put in at least 50 plus avg of hard code developing a week. Many times over 60 hours and many many all nighters on tight deadlines. I guess those companies need a 'real' tech manager or director. I do agree about scrum, it can easily slow the process down unless you have a strong scrum master. I am currently an IT director and ensure my team stays busy in 'meaningful' work. Help get me work at one of these companies and I will set things straight lol.
How can you possibly sling code for even 8 hrs straight a day, let alone 10 hrs and output quality code? In my 25yr career I've never met anyone who is capable of this. None of my reports can come close to that sort of marathon approach without burning out.
@@bloopbleepnothinghere well I did but never stayed at those companies long.
@@bloopbleepnothinghere Come over to Mainframe HLASM, mate, you'll see how it's done..
@bloopbleepnothinghere how many hours a day or per week is average or ideal? And for someone more exceptional? Thanks!
Yeah... I certainly did many 60 hour+ weeks from 1993 to 2018ish, but SINCE then I've seen a massive drop-off. In fact I was recently hired by a small company because of my expertise and work ethic, saying to me "I can't tell you how hard it is to find an actual engineer, let alone a senior one."
I doubt the next breakthrough in AI will be discovered by some guy in a garage - the problems that need to be overcome are massive and not even really well understood. A lot of the hype around AI comes from anthropomorphism and sci-fi fantasy.
"sci-fi fantasy" you're talking about AI systems on your computer using the internet, you're already livin in sci-fi by a wide margin
@@TheManinBlack9054 The technology we have now is more appropriately called Machine Learning and not AI - but I get it's definitional. I've never once felt that any of the tech I have used is intelligent in the sense it can reason or act with any agency.
That breakthrough comes from anyone who manages to persuade dogmatic idiots that AI does not start for "artificial intelligence", because it is not intelligent.
So, it can be done by guy in his garage. Then industry starts to focus on meaningful research. To understand what "human like" principle is represented by model instead of "intelligence". And once they do understand, they'll realize that tasks like driving cars are not suitable for this kind of self-arranged spaghetti code. But there are tasks which are suitable.
2nd breakthrough which may come from garage is network-collapse into tiny one doing same thing as big one, but with lower computational requirements.
Point taken but it neglects human creativity (free!) which, I think, is key to the next steps in understanding the problems. Going back to the 1890s, the next great breakthrough in physics came from a patent clerk. He needed zero investment dollars.
This is a problem. We make negative predictions which seem OK until one of those unknown unknowns comes along.
@@zotriczaoh7098 I get the analogy, but all discoveries build on knowledge from before, and subsequent work builds on that. Even Einstein's theories didn't solve physics - we still have the elusive "theory of everything".
Best interview I’ve watched this year, thank you 🙏
App Analyst, here. Can confirm. I probably only do maybe an hour or two of actual work per day, and THAT's just finding busy work to talk about in SCRUM or maybe low-effort service desk work. All other time is spent on meetings as "subject matter expert", whatever tf THAT is these days. THE PROBLEM IS just about every problem I fix, I also fix the root cause (or work with vendor for RC), and the problems don't get repeated. That's fine, but eventually I will be patching myself out of a job. Then, on to the next application, I guess. Kind of self-defeating, and I constantly feel like the other shoe is going to drop.
Doing to SCRUMs, meetings etc IS WORK. It may be useless work but it is a part of your job. Ive recommended against programming because, unlike the fantasy world these two guys are in, the hours are long, there is a lot of fatigue and burnout, and once your app is finished, you've obsoleted yourself you are working to put yourself out of business. Better to be a doctor.
Having worked in the semiconductor industry for 40 years I can say it was very different where I was. Of course I was writing software and designing hardware to test products under deadline and once one project was done there was another to be done.
See.... in semiconductor industry your work was ultimately validated by PHYSICAL PRODUCT.
This is great - the first cogent discussion of the status of AI I’ve heard yet. Thank you, guys!!
I am a software engineer and I agree with the idea that 'agile' does not always ensure efficient software development. At my job we have daily standup meetings where we just give a quick status of what we did the prior day and plan to do today. We also have weekly 'sizing' meetings where the team estimates time for all 'stories'. A simple 1 line code change is usually estimated to take 24 hours or more. Stories that require weeks or months many times are estimated to take 2 or 3 days. I enjoyed the 'waterfall' methodology much better than 'agile'.
Pareidolia hallucination in artificial intelligence can be caused by the complexity of visual data, limited or biased training data, overfitting of AI models, and human biases in development and evaluation. To address these causes, diverse training data, robust AI architectures, and human oversight are important.
What about a "self" driving car that is really just a large front camera where someone in India is "virtually" driving?
oh yes 🤣😂
@qwe😂qwe9678
I've seen how people drive in India.
This should be fun.
Also, we'll finally be able to die due to lag irl.
Ahh, the Mechanical Indian, like the Mechanical Turk.
@@gregrice1354 jesus
Not surprised a bit about the assessment by an insider. I've been saying since the start of this hype that AI is nothing more than a program and it needs a human to program it. The concept of "self awareness" will never be a reality, as it will always require guidelines, so directly (through calibration) or indirectly (through the original guidelines) it will always be under our control.
You could see AI as a ship on the sea, that when it reaches land, it cannot go any further, as it was only meant to be on water. In order to be able to transform into a land vehicle, the initial programming will need to contain the concept of land as well, otherwise the ship just stops as soon as it reaches land and you have the BSOD.
The misconception on machine learning is that the program will find solutions by itself, without original guidelines. That's impossible: if said ship reaches land and it has no concept of land, it will not be able to continue. If the coding tells it to approach any new problem in a random way however, it also means that there is no guideline tied to any rules, which means that anything goes. So just like in the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, the program can assume a plant or a whale, as there are no rules any longer. And as a consequence, it will fail, since it will not be able to function within a logical ruleset of its environment, as it behaves totally randomly, hence chaotically. Anything that is chaotic ends in disaster without direction.
As for the hype, it's clear why there are so many interests pushing this narrative of self awareness and a plethora of "solutions" (for non-existing problems most of the time, like self-driving): the AI will become the convenient scape-goat. Once the masses are led to believe that AI are more intelligent than humans and can take over tasks (initially only driving, then complex tasks like work and finally ethical decisions, like court cases, war, etc.), AI will be installed instead of critical tasks and the owners and programmers will no longer be accountable. After all, the "superior intelligence" can only make the right decision, no matter what that is! And noone will ever find out how the AI have a pre-set of guidelines along hidden agendas. Just look at how ChatGPT is steering thinking along woke guidelines or the utter failure of Google's Gemini.
So the brainwash is in full force to convince the masses that AI use is justified. Hence the lies surrounding its ability to learn by itself and obviously the smokescreen is prepared by using popular and superficial means, like art, music, visuals. People are so gullible, they think that a close to perfect visual picture means intelligence..
AI might have some crazy hype going on right now, like claims that we will see AGI in 2 years. But in the mid to longterm, its a no brainer where we are heading with AI and ALL of big tech is jumping on the AI train. There have been multiple big discoveries in the last 20 years in AI and computantional power per dollar is increasing on an expontionital rate and that is not slowing down at all. We are heading into a very interesting future.
It's far worse than this. Reddit and TH-cam are filled with people who believe AGI is already here because of the stochastic parrot effect, which was described in a paper warning this would become a problem over a year ago. 99% of these people have no computer science knowledge and couldn't even tell you what a context window is, but somehow have convinced themselves that 'chat GPT' as they refer to LLMs is fully capable of human reasoning. They are no words.
It's a computer program, not AI
@@Astro2024A computer program that runs AI. Why brother with naming, it's doing very impressive inteligent work as we speak.
@@Astro2024
A computer program that can explore a problem space and produce solutions better than programers working alone on that same problem without ML.
The AI part is how the data has been modeled as the result tasking machines to learn from that data.
@@Astro2024So what AI is supposed to be if not a computer program?
Great interview - thank you very much. Finally someone rational and proficient on this topic.
Such a refreshing talk hearing someone with sensible views
No, its not a rational or proficient interview
"you need to be either highly positive or highly negative" So much of Tech at the moment.
Best Podcast I heard in a while. I admit to having been sucked into the hype and thinking about "post labor economics", when the reality is so much more evident. Looking forward to Dr. Maggiori's next book!
He's talking about narrow AI, which we're very aware is what we currently have. He's essentially stating "it's not really AI and will collapse because it's narrow and now AGI". Narrow ML is still amazing and can be incredibly economically disruptive. I am using it to summarize and highlight important details of legal papers which are over 500 pages long with dead on accuracy. This would have taken many hours, costing thousands prior to now. Poof, gone.
He thinks AI *today* may only replace 10% of jobs. I agree with that. But it will keep improving. The larger the context window the more useful it becomes. Making it more accessible in local hardware will provide a further step. Agent workouts will replace some more people in there. Then the raw extra capabilities we'll keep adding as more narrow AI which does some functions very well will keep chipping away at employment.
This is the best video I've seen for ages. Thanks so much.
i remember bill balmer saying people would not use phones without buttons.
And I remember people saying planes will replace cars (it was 50 years ago) or that by 2010 we will have a moon colony. P.S. It was Steve and people give him too little credit for what he actually did.
But they do have buttons.
@@arcomarco7131
I remember people making the OP's argument when I said ipads won't replace laptops, especially for software engineers.
@@deker0954 :D cant argue with that
as far as jobs safe from ai displacement, i recommend the building trades. i have two degrees, worked as teacher, communications pro, tech guy, magazine editor, but didn’t find job satisfaction until i became a carpenter. i know it’s not for everyone, but desk jobs drove me crazy. also, master a trade, go solo, and sleep well knowing you are providing an essential service and keeping the fruits of your toil for yourself instead of enriching the bosses and shareholders.
Looking forward to reading the book. I mostly hear about AI from the people trying to sell AI so it's nice to hear a different perspective.
I needed that first 5 minutes. I've been in the dumps. I studied CS and programmed like a mad man to get good enough to do really fun things. My first job, I really enjoyed it. I was writing tons of code, but it was nothing new. It wasn't exciting or innovative. I thought joining one of the big tech companies would give me that itch. I somehow made it to one of the big tech companies and I feel so empty, oddly enough my ambition is actually draining. I'm making great money, but I honestly didn't do this for the money. I did it to make an impact. I'm actually getting depressed because I don't feel like I'm making an impact. I'm actually taking a role in tech that is considered less "prestigious" then software engineering, but I actually find it to be more satisfying and it requires you to actually work constantly. I mean, where is my head at - that I'm willing to actually take a role that requires me to work when I can literally cash in on stock, continue making well above six figures and coast? I am really on a dry spell right now and I need to build something, but idk how I lost my edge.
You are working for the wrong companies. Do your research and make sure to invest in learning what you find interesting, and then research and find companies where you can do that sort of work that you find interesting. YOU are the solution yo that problem, but you have to take that initiative.
I completely agree. I have a one or two domains that I'm very interested in, but I've been pursuing roles that are outside of those domains and I work on things that are, sadly, uninteresting to me. @@amdenis
You say you're making good money. Why not save a money cushion and launch your own business doing what you find fulfilling?
You and the guest speaker are both working for the wrong companies. You can find jobs where you are a high paid lump if that's really what you want, but I've only ever been in one job where that was even a possibility. Most places that I've worked, if you tried to work 3hrs in a month or more like the guest speaker says he does, you'd be tossed out on your butt, as you should.
DOuble dip and work 2 jobs at once. Just don't tell anyone.
Yo glad to see that my personalised profile on youtube picked up this vid, may you reach opulence!
really good podcast brother, you asked all the right questions that were on my mind as well. keep it going and cheers!
Thank you. Much appreciated
This dude's book completely blew me away. BRILLIANT book.
Very interesting. Thank you.
Thank you! I knew intuitively that the ChatGPT and OpenAI stuff are hypes, but I had too few arguments, just a gut feeling.
You clearly don't know anything if you think that.
@@OnigoroshiZero I certainly do know something about neural nets and language models. (And using AI)
@@OnigoroshiZero can it be a new Mozart or DaVinci without copying those works before ?
It’s not hype. This guy is delusional. Just because he worked as a guy in Ai doesn’t mean squat. The reason he didn’t have any work is probably because he wasn’t trusted with the important stuff :P
Ai is already drastically changing Art, music, writing, programming, computer animation, videos , editing etc and it’s only getting more insane.
@@howmathematicianscreatemat9226of course it can. But who cares ?
Davinci was mentored by Veroccio and Mozart was mentored by Haydn and others.
It’s the ability to take information and twist it and use it in unique ways that make “geniuses”. AI can LITERALLY mash up millions of disparate topics / ideas instantly and try novel techniques in simulations etc.
Even if it never saw a Davinci painting , or heart a Mozart concerto, it would discover it on its own by basically simulating all the possibilities of painting and music from the initial fundamentals of color and sound :)
Best discussion I've heard so far.
My sincere admiration for your deep insights and perspective of things, Emmanuel! Thanks you El Podcast ❤
Very interesting to find out that AI is not as advanced as the sales pitch
His core point was litterly that "oh look there are billions in the industry and we havent hit AGI/ASI yet, it wont ever ever happen"
Thats his quintecense of it all, like with self driving cars he said. Oh no, the newest study released from waymo recorded that their self driving cars were safer than average human driver by a large margine.
Certain projects take a long time, I mean imagine how long it took to get from punchcard machines to computers. we should have given up at the vacuum tube stage. all the money that has flown into computers and nothing! besides a living room sized calculator!
@@foxt9151, AGI/ASI is a metaphysical impossibility. It is not within the realm of actual science or physics.
@@seriouscat2231As a fellow physicist I would be curious if you could elaborate on this as I do not really see how it AGI is physically impossible or would violate laws of physics.
@@tybaltmercutio, you need to reread what I wrote. Unless you are willfully misunderstanding, in which case never mind.
@@seriouscat2231 No need to feel attacked. I actually was genuinely curious about your take.
But after reading it again carefully - and combining it with your reply - I realize it is just a bunch of non-sense put together to sound smart.
I was expecting a solid argument, got nothing new
I just bought the audiobook as it's something I want to learn about and this guy seems pretty honest. I just need something to listen to at work tomorrow anyway. Hopefully, it's interesting.
My impression is that many people who have been working on machine learning for a long time have not yet grasped the latest generation of AI. It seems they think in their old (outdated) models. It's like with the engineers who have been working on the combustion motors and who now (try to) talk about electric motors and EVs.
Yes. And generally people who have all their lives identified as the smartest person in the room desperately grope for ways to call b.s. on recent tech to prove they will always be intellectually king of the hill.
This interview is just great. Not only because of the AI analysis but because of all extremely bright statements on Scrumm, Self driving, how the soft industry worked last decades because of low interest rates, etc. This content is a sample of genuine natural superior intelligence. Thanks for that!
I didnt expect much but it actually turned out to be one of the best podcast on AI I heard so far, very informative and without all the fluff and clichés. Thank you.
Thank you for your kind words
Its not informative, its the opposite
we absolutely need more engineers and scientists that are willing to be this open and brutally honest
I am just a machine maintenance technician. Retired now. Over the years, what I have observed is more automation on the plant floor. Minimizing human labor. It's inevitable, part of the progression of employment. AI is not as sophisticated as we're led to believe, however, no doubt that it will progress. Physical labor is decreasing and mental labor is saturated. Really interesting comment about Twitter reducing there workforce by a substantial amount and still maintaining the same level of output. Good luck with future employment.
I did Support Vector Machines (SVMs) in grad school. I laugh my butt of when people think NNs and Machine Learning will be sentient. It's nothing more than a really complex spell check.
Every AI image generator should be required to record every output on a blockchain, so that image can later be traced back to that AI.
I only have one question has left, that why AI is not programmed like if it does not "know something" (AKA has no data) just tell: I don't have any data or I don't know, instead of hallucinating. And how is it not a mathemaical problem(mathematical logic) that when it says something we don't have the fact that it is hallucinating or doesn't know something. How can we sure about it is correct or not?
It is indeed refreshing to hear a more measured and nuanced point of view. 100% agree on the waste generated by tech teams especially in investment banks.
We don't even understand human consciousness yet we are talking about giving it to machines
Human consciousness formed from natural selection without intent. When the first digital agent gains consciousness, it probably won't be deliberate. It will be a "happy" accident. We likely won't need to understand consciousness to create it. Nature didn't even need to be conscious itself to create consciousness in humans.
Consciousness is irrelevant. As soon as AI get a general problem solving ability it's an AGI, and nobody cares if it's "self-aware" or not.
@@vitalyl1327that doesn't mean that when it gets general problem solving it will recursively exponentially get smarter. Also, without consciousness and intention, it cant have its own goals in order to solve them. It eill be blank and just a ML for many fields. So unconscious agi cannot intentionally get progressively smarter by its own even if we wanted it to do so... You are another victim of the fools propaganda about doomsday fictional scenarios... Impudent
We are not ‘giving it to machines’ so much as it’s an emergent capability of neural nets at scale, resulting from the fact that we ‘borrowed’ so much architecturally from nature when we created and have refined neural nets. Also, although “consciousness” is a commonly thrown-around term, I would call it “self-reflective capabilities” and the beginnings of metacognition.
Consciousness does not come from matter
We can only create clever simulacra with these techniques
Majority of the tasks people are trying to resolve with AI can be done with a where clause.
when
Example?
IF Else can still do so much
As someone in the aviation industry, and what you described in gatewick with the A-SMGCS system. I can give you some insights why that is the case. First of all such systems exist for very very long time. But they are expensive and the certification for aviation safety of such system is very very complex task. The GPS/GNSS used to have too large of an error for ground movement operations and there are way way too many vehicles so you can't really have them all equipped with Squitters because you will just just block the frequency. Parked vehicles will always have squitters off. GPS is also not secure enough and can be easily jammed, thus in order to use for operational purposes ASMGCS system you will also have SMRs(Surface Movement Radars), From concept to operations of a technology in the sector takes more than 20 years. It is not cost or investment that is making it so long but the whole Safety First culture and the extreme regulation.
About some of the points of AI I think your view is way too balanced and you are downplaying some facts. Yes it is basically machine learning but how is human learning diffferent? The chat GPT Kenya RLHF example is not different than a human going to school being tought and shown how to solve tasks,write essays etc. The fact is that LLMs and some other AI models have shown to develop emergent properties very similar to how humans do. Even tho current models are narrow they tend to scale a lot with more compute and even tho Moore's law is dead in the sense of transistors scaling compute is actually increasing, and the fact that Mixture of Experts or multiple interacting agents that are very narrow and specific can work together and show synergy means that even tho we may hit a ceiling that it might be so high that the world can change very very fast.
While Neural Net AIs learn in a way that's... similar... to humans, they lack the logical association that humans use to learn. Knowledge, to a human, is interconnected in a way that today's LLMs could only dream of.
When person A says "I want an apple", there's A LOT of meaning/processing behind that statement. This person has recognised a state of hunger/craving, they can visualise the presence of an apple alleviating it, based on past experience. They understand that the apple is food, they have an understanding of what it takes not only to acquire an apple, but how the apple comes to be in the first place (and most steps in-between). So in addition to intent, a statement like this typically communicates an understanding of what fulfilling that intent will cost as well as why the intent is there in the first place (among many other things).
When person B replies "How about an orange?" it holds a similarly ridiculous amount of meaning underneath.
Both AI and humans decide through likelihood, but the likelihood estimations are happening on completely different levels. When person B replies "How about an orange?", many layers of meaning have been exchanged, whereas, when ChatGPT replies "How about an Orange?", it's because it calculated that those are the most likely words to follow the statement "I want an apple".
So yeah, when a human goes to school, hopefully they're extracting a vast amount of meaning from every lesson. When an AI reads a book, it's (mostly) skipping over the meaning and saying, "Ah, so this word is more likely to occur when preceded by these words". Completely different ballpark of intelligence.
(Attention and embedding are cool, but they're a single step on the thousand mile journey to human level intelligence)
59:45
This is a HUGE problem in the gaming industry. That, combined with people learning improper techniques from TH-cam University like destroying game objects instead of caching and reusing them.
That's why all your favorite videogames lag out and crash constantly these days. People are just using copy pasta code.
Yeah Ai won't be replacing Tech jobs anytime soon. If Tech Jobs are being laid off it's because they are over-staffed not because Ai is replacing them.....simply put the Tech field is too over-hyped and everyone wants a Tech Job.
worked for 2 years, wrote a book, became a superstar.
this corraborates his story perfectly.
He is completely ignorant about the subject, and even his intelligence is questionable.
He is the one riding the AI hype train with negative views that are easier to get people's attention (as everything negative).
@@OnigoroshiZero AI is fake though.
don't get me wrong, i have no questions to the person, he is an example not an agent in this story.
the issue is in the societal perception of the "intelligent" a noob writing a guru-book is the OK.
Great interview and guest! "What's the gain?" (1:07:00) is something that everyone in business should really ask themselves. We had Amazon Go in downtown Chicago before COVID. I went in a couple of times and was underwhelmed. "OK, it's 7-Eleven without the clerks. Big whoop..." lol
Dr. Maggiori commented on how many organizations try to make AI work without much insight into whether it makes sense. But the people making these decisions don't necessarily have the inside view. I think that it sometimes makes sense to just try it to see whether it works. Since it's new territory, of course, there will be lessons learned about the challenges to advantageously exploiting AI. These may arise from poor fit with the problem and/or from implementation challenges. They may be too great to permit success, or they may provide a vantage point from which to try again with greater prospects of success. Many will have more a pessimistic view of the prospects, but ultimately, the only way to know is to invest the resources in trying.
I fully acknowledge that some endeavours will be riskier than others, involving more unknowns, and which more insiders might disagree with. That's the nature of innovation. Hindsight is 20-20. Each investor or stakeholder (including employees) decides whether it fits their risk appetite. Just like in investments, it's good to have a spectrum of risks.
These AI folks who are trying to build AGI, are doing the same thing as the Physicists did with String Theory to build a Theory of Everything...
We as humans like generalities but in practice it's very very difficult to do so :)
It already exists.
@@MarcGyverIt then you are nothing but delusional
I wrote an AI-centric novel where I actually predicted much of what's happening. Of course, no one cared since the story was neither dystopian nor utopian.
I asked
@@ricardogarciarevilla6922 If you don't mind my asking, what did you ask?
That's still great, and a big accomplishment that you wrote an entire novel! good for you!
@@vis4083 Thanx😁
where can i read it?
Not even 10 minutes into this podcast and I'm recalling how I would see people in our "tech department" walking around ALL THE TIME! I would think, "HOW"?? I'm so busy I can barely leave my seat to go pee!! The very next thing out of the host was, "...I'd imagine you'd be so busy you wouldn't have time to complain." 🤣🤣 The same with college. Hardly anyone would be at the library, yet I spent so much time there I honestly considered sleeping there😩. I'd see students lounging with friends on the grass as I scurried to get to my next class, and I wondered, "Where are they getting all this LEISURE time"?
There were times in my past when was making more money than I ever had before and by extension, was "doing better in life" than ever before and yet, I felt like a fraud.. Having meetings and talking about what we're going to do, then fleshing out the plan and working out the kinks only to have everyone else want to change scope or fall short of deadlines.. I don't miss it.. I can totally sympathize with you on 'tech is a fraud'.
This was fantastic, great perspective from a very smart person.
Finally, an intelligent conversation about AI. Thank you for the podcast, it's really interesting and as a programmer, I find it very sobering.
It will be interesting to get his take on working in IT after he puts in 30 years .
Great topic, great questions and awesome answers!
Yes cult of agile is way overblown 6:45
What are the alternatives though? I've seen a lot of all of it and agile is as good as any.
The problem is dogma. You can't be dogmatic about agile, that defeats the whole purpose. Agility accommodates the nature of tech. Engineering is ambiguous at times, and an engineering team needs to be able to accommodate spikes, injections, outages, change in business demand, etc. Other industries can't do that, manufacturing requires rigid planning because once a die is set, it is expensive to change. Software enjoys the ability to pivot at a moment's notice but to be able to take advantage of that you need a process that embraces that. That is where agile comes in. It's tried and tested, but often abused, and seen as the end, rather than simply a means to an end.
On my team we work in whatever way makes sense for the work we are doing. We change processes whenever we feel like it. We can adapt to a significant roadmap change without too much fuss because there really isn't anyone stopping us. We are asked to deliver, and no one cares how we do it. To me, that is an agile team.
@@bloopbleepnothinghere Decades of experience in legitimate project management methodologies?
@@piotrd.4850 lol, agile is a decades old legitimate project management process. Waterfall is up there too, but it doesn't fit all either. People hate on agile, but that's because they take it as gospel which is basically the antithesis of agile. If you start believing in Jira, and heavy process and think that's agile and you've already lost your way.
I'm just wondering how to get these jobs where I do nothing and get paid a lot
We all haha
Nepotism
Really enjoyed the book. Great interview.
I work in tech and I’ve been working nonstop for about 25 years. Inefficiency comes from management leading us in a bad direction, but we never stop working. We have tons of technical debt that we can address during lulls in new projects. We should be spending more time on upgrading skills.
The last 17 years of my 30yr career was at Intel. I never had a job that was working only a few hours a week. It was normal to work 50 to 70 hours a week. One time I was scolded by the boss, “we missed you on Saturday“. I had another boss who called his staff meeting on Saturday morning at 10 AM.
There’s a serious lack of credibility of anyone who had a real job at a real high-tech company, saying he wasn’t working very hard. He would’ve never made it off probation at Intel.
For one 'tech industry' is stretched. But yeah, cheap money made a lot of project look EXACTLY like the guy describes.
This is kind of hilarious, he talks like a junior dev on their first job. There is an element of truth to what he's saying and you'll find that in all large companies, not just software developers.
But the newbies who think they can do a task in 20 mins are forgetting that this isn't a small personal side project.
They don't realise the build takes half a day to run the tests to make sure the change doesn't screw something else up, and then it needs to get reviewed by more experienced developers, QAd, and then merged with the things that other developers are doing. If it takes down some important service because they broke something unexpectedly it can cost a multiple of their yearly salary per hour while it's down etc. It will depend wildly on the specifics of the project, but a new dev wont know that
Do ❤ love so much both of you so scintillating, and thanks for accompanying me on a hand-wash (definitely non-AI) laundry overdue for 4 weeks...🎉
Good talk. Can relate. Thanks
Well it's always "just a matter of time" so I don't think you have an argument there. If this was the year 1890, you'd be saying the same thing about cars replacing the horses. You'd say "Oh yeah suuure, we'll see a Model-T Ford... I'll believe it when I see it!" But it was just a matter of time wasn't it? Sure it was 20 years later. But 20 years is a matter of time. And the way Ai works is that once a certain point is reached (which we haven't reached yet) it is capable of improving itself. So that "matter of time" is smaller than waiting on the Model T Ford. It's 5 or 10 years from GPT 3. Or you could say 20 or 30 years from OpenAi's inception. So while you do make a lot of other good arguments, that isn't one of them.
I think this guy is missing the woods for the trees in his definition of AI , what i see in these LLM's is an emergent property they seem to have developed a rudimentary conceptual understanding
As a software developer I actually quit a job because there wasn't enough to do. I'm working harder now and much happier. I can ask for a raise and actually justify it! 🙂
I work as a programmer and has never experienced what he sais. I do actually much work. There are a couple of days here and there with less work to do, but in general I have a lot to do. But we are a very small team where most projects are done by one or two persons which makes things very transparent if something is not done or not.
This is by far the most accurate analysis of the current AI situation I have seen.
Sadly you are wrong..we teachers are alread discussing emergency strategies because we are already becoming mostly obsolete in Schools besides supervising that the students truly learn with their AI step by step App instead.of.going to social media
AGI will certainly be able to solve all computationally decidable problems. However, non computationally decidable problems like another Mozart, Evariste Galois, DaVinci will not be solved by AI in our lifetime… it doesn’t count to study Mozart to become one. Authentic Coolness doesn’t study, it just creates. The AI would need to be able to create tear dropping phenomenal classical music WITHOUT training !
Not at all. Teachers are being replaced by good teachers. Have you heard of TH-cam? You are like the movie rental store being replaced by Red Box . Get on TH-cam and run your skills by the people already learning there. See how you do against the competition. Oh and no union support/emergency strategy suppression of the talent already in place. What I'm saying is that you need to look a little ahead because this is the direction learning is going in.
@@deker0954 Im of the belief that a lot of "bad teaching" you see is more of a disrupted classroom management by weak and gentle admin policies. Teachers are tied to what admin and district says, so if they say you need to tolerate the disruptive student, you must tolerate the disruptive student that is making the class quality go down.
Im also of the belief that a lot of "school/teacher is bad" hate is because of an effect of spatial association, a lot of people immediately associate "school as a place" as a bad thing and therefore will act unwilling in such a space, affecting the quality of their learning and reinforcing the belief. Whereas TH-cam is associated with positive things and fun and dopamine bursts. It's far more complicated and boiling it down to "youtube being better" is naive of the current state of education.
This doesn't rule out an actual bad teacher case existing, but you'll be surprised how minuscule that factor is affecting the outcome, it's probably less than 10% by just observation.
Hard to care to individual needs over TH-cam. Guess an AGI or individual mentor/tutor might be better here than someone creating content for a huge diverse audience of million potential listeners
Firm believer in the variant of Price's Corallary. Roughly the square root of the number of employees in an org do about half the work. Saw a lot of "make-work" and mismanagement in my time (40 yrs), 50-60 hours a week of hard work, with minimal concrete, deliverable outcomes. Think video hit the mark, in many aspects.
Great talk! Thanks for calling machine learning for what it is, I'm so sick of people calling everything AI.
I work in IT, - never had a minute of free time at work 🤯 Yeah, but everything is legit what is said here.
This guy is awesome. Excellent interview. I’m picking up that book!
The problem is, that people will only get to interact with one basic personality type; that of a sanitized, human resources broad. Over time, this level of conversation will change people's perception of what's meaningful.
I'm in the same position as the invited guest. There was a short period of luxury time, when there was no hostility towards AI, when it was all magic, but there were no user interfaces yet, so only the coders could produce said magic. And now, that all the tech goes mainstream, the barrier of entry goes lower. Almost everything AI related is instantly replicated and diluted to the point of being worthless. You get no time to recoup your investment.
I've done IT since the 80's. Seen the whole tech evolve from 2MHz 8 bit machines all the way to today. It's all been inevitable. To some, it was clear from day one, where the tech was headed. People like Alexander Bard did lectures on these matters back when the audience had no clue what the lectures were about. To some, everything was obvious. You just had to follow the right set of thinkers and futurists. People like Daniel Suarez, who foresaw the influence of social media, before there was any social media. Many visionary fiction books already described the world we are entering. And most of them weren't as optimistic as our corporate CEO's and politicians. Most of such books were dystopian.
I work in tech as a Machine Learning / AI Engineer and I gave up looking for fulfilment after my 5th job role. I earn 6 figures, work from home 5 days a week and only work ~3-5 hours per week. No joke. Nothing new. Like seriously, the most little task that can be done in 1 hour takes 5 sprints (1 sprint = 2weeks). Like bruh, it's 10 lines of codes..
and what's the problem? lol or are you braggin'
@@ricardogarciarevilla6922I feel a sense of "Is this it?" An easy job can feel like bullshit and devour your soul, material compensation is just one aspect of job satisfaction.
@@ruffethereal1904 You are probably depressed or have some sort of mental illness. It's not normal to have a huge profit low risk job and feeling quite down about it.
@@ruffethereal1904 that's a problem of the individual then. I've been working in tech for almost 3 decades now and I live in this awful parallel universe where compensation is shit , expectations are high, and the workload can be overwhelming. Software "engineers" in particular seem to be so mentally dysfunctional that they don't even realise they actually live in paradise. The US corporate structure also seems to amplify this by a lot. I mean, come on, what do think working at a factory production line, a cashier job, data entry clerk, or being butcher in a large-scale slaughterhouse feels like? Sometimes a job is just that - a means to an end, something to bring food on table and pay your bills. It being "fun" or "fulfilling" is just a bonus. If you want meaning or fun - that's what hobbies are for and if someone claims to only work a couple of hours per week, there's plenty of time for fun projects, self-improvement, education, etc.
@@totalermist agree 100% with you. Lol if I was earning 6 figures working a couple hours per day, you bet I'd be learning new crafts, trying out new sports, and other hobbies. IMO if one wants fulfillment one can help others by volunteering for local causes.
I've worked as a software-developer for 12 years in 4 different companies. I have NEVER run out of things to do. Not even close. In one company we did not get anything new to do from the outside for half a year, and we were still no where close to running out of meaningful work to do. So much goes in to stuff the customers don't see that still adds value (maybe to the customer and maybe to the company). If nothing else because much of this work makes it easier to maintain the codebase and get new work out to the customer faster and in a safer manner.
Though, I do believe that some juggernaut companies have resources to waste and are willing/ignorant to do so.
That last part I can confirm it is definitively true. Picture wasting weeks if not months of man hours because the tasks they create take months to be created and when they finally arrive, it takes waaaay too little time to complete (two sprints tops to complete everything they took months to bring to us) We can't tackle tech debt because of bureaucraziness and most of the time is spent in self-training (you have to go through more bureaucraziness to get aproval for good training courses and material)
I thought it normal to look for tasks and opportunities in the absence of top level direction? I've always done so, unless was prevented by permissions or obstinate management (exception.) There's always efficiencies that can be made, e.g. streamlining and automation. Writing documentation or making the code cleaner in the absence of other tasks.
@@brytankak9598 I agree with what you said. Blessed the ones who are on teams that allow us to do that. Not all of us are that lucky tho.
Ultimately, we are part of a team and unless the team is onboard too, we may just waste our time with things that won't be used and not noted by leadership at all. The only thing left for us, is the learning experience.
It won't do any good, team wise, to do documentation no one else is going to read or keep up to date, to tackle tech debt if no one is going to approve PRs and let them get outdated with the main branch, to write tests to automate them if the team keeps doing them manually and refuses to learn how to automate tests... Without Top Level direction / leadership approving the work we do, it will remain as things we do for ourselves, unfortunately 😔
As a software and AI/ML engineer for a decade, I have not seen this at all. I and my colleagues have been pushed to work extremely hard. Meetings are short and we are spared meetings that are not needed.
Damn. I was hard on myself for procrastinating some days after a month of 10+ h/d coding. But I still suffer from bad choices later in development. I found that not forcing myself actually just let me avoid getting too deep into a bad choices consequences. I just don't really see all the problems I will have to handle, and no one actually ready to pay/wait for me to finish the feature/project. It feels like the only way to make software responsible is to consume your personal budget on your self as employee. Everything else may lead you to f up scenario.
For a start, Scrum != Agile. Scrum is a practice, Agile is a methodology.
Secondly not every Tech worker is working just microseconds a day. Some of us actually work.
Thirdly AI is a super set, ML is a subset of AI. While as a pragmatist, I do agree that there is a lot of hype in the industry and in general to AI. I also believe that there is a limitation to current systems, even as impressive as they currently are, there are still major gaps.
There is no concrete path currently which says LLMs are the future of AI, though their NLP capabilities are a major advancement, being able to communicate with a computer with natural language is very important. Chat GPT and others are not the AI we will end up with, it is a step along to the path of AI. The human mind is a predictive machine like LLMs, but that is not the only thing it is.
Dr. Emmanuel makes a great observation that neural nets can only solve for instances that are in it's data set of training. The edge cases for self driving cars are such an example. Us humans with much smaller training data sets can solve these kinds of problems in short order thanks to our abilities of abstraction, general world comprehension and reasoning.
humans, and any kind of animals, basically inherit a functional system that was "trained" and adapted during each previous generation of all ancestors that ever lived, down to the earliest form of matter. its basically like a system where the hardware and software has adapted over billions of years, and besides its many dimensional parameters, its dataset is also the result of all other living and non living systems any generation of life ever interacted with directly or indirectly in any chemical or physical way cause all perception is like its input that can be processes. basically, life is the result of a system that can alter itself in any way with a virtually unlimited degree of freedom, and has had access to nearly all information encoded into the ecosystem of the entire planet, all at once at any time through indirect influence. it doesnt take a genius to understand that recreating anything remotely similar in performance is completely impossible
@@sshreddderr9409 You make a really good point but I wouldn't say impossible. Never identical to life, but instincts are not a moving target and can be overtaken in finite time. Not even by AI, but by biology, genomics and robotics, which are all exploding right now.
very interesting, thank you man
4:00 yeah, I don't have that problem *at all*. But I'm in central Europe, maybe its different here. For one I could only dream of a 6 figure salary. "I have a 6 figure salary and nothing to do." like wow. What a problem to have.
AI "Art" is overhyped. I still think digital art is safe. AI is limited to it's database and it can't make anything new or original. It might look impressive at first glance but it has a lot problems and doesn't understand the fundamentals of art or color theory. It only understands patterns. Honestly do what you love and keep drawing.
Im not even an artist and I feel like I can always tell AI art because it lacks any sense of composition at all levels.
For example, when a person decides they want to make a picture of a hyper-detailed scifi cyborg woman flying through space, there'd be intentionality in the woman's pose, how it shows off different mechanical details, they might choose to give her an open cybernetic ribcage to add an element of body horror, or instead make the robot body parts look sleek and smooth, like an Apple product. Then the background and other scene elements come together in a cohesive way that takes lighting and perspective into account. Maybe there's a ringed planet, or an asteroid belt, or something causing conflict or intrigue like a spaceship flying after her. Whenever I see AI art try to make something like this, it always seems like it combines the elements at random, because they can technically make sense, but don't cohere into a complete vision. It feels like it was created through cold iteration on forms (because it basically was).
Not to mention, there isn't nearly as much control over these tools as people like to think. You can't really make minute adjustments with the level of precision and control that an actual artist has, and those details are what separate art that's great, from art that's "good enough".
Worst part is, AI dummies don't care. The fact that they can write a prompt, makes them look intelligent in their own eyes and they have started to belittle other humans with actual skills and calling his shit 'art' better because it takes less time to produce (newsflash, it's shit, no matter how much they tweak it, only anime art looks barely decent, but it's AI shit it could look good but it's the same vaseline crap!)... then they start to cope that they can fix it, it's all so tiresome, the technology of mediocre people
Isn't that how humans work. What is original? When I see some drawing of a Sci-Fi alien creature, its usually put together of parts from existing creatures. Everything you know and create is based on a database of experiences and consequences in your life. This is the same for all of us. None of us go deep into minds and create anything new. At least my thoughts, based on the lectures I've listened to, and my experiences.
@@joshualossner2328 you are not an artist and don't understand the difference between "AI" art and actual art done by humans... my god, the fallacy of everything has been done is the most ridiculous one. Then AI art is shit by definition, and most people defend it to death given they lack any artistic merit without it.
@@joshualossner2328 it's "part" of how humans work, but humans do a LOT more.
Humans can take inspiration from different contexts and re-shape them into new ones. Humans can form more global compositional intentions and make far more cohesive art. We are not simply statistical collage machines. Think very hard about how would go about making something creatively. Yes, you may be able to relate every element to some inspirational source, but you did much more than just place those elements together and make them roughly fit. That's more or less all an AI is doing.
You guys are excited about Anti AI 🤖 propaganda! All AI scientists and experts are worried about exponential growth of AI and one man in this video enough to tilt the balance 😅😅😅😅😅
Enjoy the ride
AGI coming my dears
If they manaage to develop fusion. Otherwise, no juice, no AGI.
dream on mate
your grand grand children will hear "AGI within 2 years" as well. And they will share your hope.
@@hydrohasspoken6227
Hallucinators say that!😀😃
@@hydrohasspoken6227
Wake up 🆙 and see reality 🤣
Interesting conversation. I didn't have time to watch the whole thing but didn't watch part of the section on ChatGPT. I do think you are mistaken on the idea that ChatGPT doesn't have an understanding of the world and that hallucinations can't be understood. The architecture of ChatGPT (particularly transformers and vectors) do create an empirically derived view of the world. It is a pity we don't get the probability distributions generated by each individual prediction, but OpenAI can investigate this. Also, the embeddings do seem to extract a semantic map of human language across that 12K dimensional space (in the case of GPT 3, it's likely much more for GPT4).
I do agree that it is overhyped but the scaling laws are yet to be broken and we might see more emergent capabilities from larger models and will likely see smarter ways to apply them (i.e. multi-agent approaches) that lead to improvements.
That said, the idea that we'll be able to generate literary works of art with a prompt is clearly misguided, as are similarly fanciful notions based purely on AI hype.
When the best AI scientists suddenly start working on AI safety, you know it's not just hype.
@@elliotanderson1585That's ridiculous. You don't put airbags in a car because you know it's going to crash, you put them in to account for the possibility of them crashing.
I know AI is cool and you're excited for a Star Trek future, but don't believe everything people who want your money (AI companies) tell you about the future of a product they haven't successfully created a product for.
Good interview. True, there is a lot of AI Hype, But we're making incredible progress. This interview was before SORA and GPT4.o.
We're making progress but not massive. The concepts haven't changed. We're not creating brains.
interesting interview. what will ai bubble burst look like. im finding some very stupid stufff being promoted by hi level vc like plaiday launching text to video. the video is 3 seconds of silence. like a half az meme maker. a 3 second ai picture is not a video. like calling a motion meme a video.
so basically, people who hype up AI think like this:
AI = complex
real world = simple
AI = supernatural magic, we are all doomed, oh no, oh no
I never worked in a field that paid 6 figures, but it did do a deskside job with very little work and no ability to improve things and I choose to leave to go back to my service desk lead job because I was going stir crazy. I like to make improvements and feel valuable at my job and I choose to take an hourly pay cut to go back to more stressful work since it was more mentally interesting.
Not my experience as a software engineer in Australia. It’s long hard hours here