The only other factor I think that could be considered in a part 3 to this is the risk reward ratio rather than just time save. For instance, if you fail the grass cut you might lose 2 seconds. But if you fail a rainbow road track skip you might lose 5 seconds. This factors in how risky a given cut is.
@@bigfry5 you would just have to factor it into your equation. I’m not good with math but I bet you could find a way. Put out a new survey and have people not consider time loss in difficulty and then do that part on your own.
I like metric-based rankings like this because they're objective once the admittedly subjective, but concrete criteria are determined. Then the numbers can be adjusted if we think they did a poor job. I think that, instead of giving a bonus to shroomless cuts, you should have introduced what I'll call an "accessibility" stat to generalize based on the number of shrooms the cut takes (e.g. dock points from Delfino double cut for requiring 2 shrooms). Excellent video!
i think that another factor to consider is the proximity to the end of the lap: mg gap jump can take you from 7th to 3rd and you finish immediately after. however for pg grass cut, it's right at the start of the lap, meaning there's more time for you to be shocked/blued and for you to lose your position. proximity to end of lap makes mg gapjump much stronger and pg grasscut much weaker
one slight methodological critique is the choice to use absolute time versus something like shortcut time save divided by total track time. Shortcuts which save less time, but in short tracks will be disadvantaged to shortcuts that save an average amount of time on a long track.
a better way would be shortcut time divided by average difference between first and second place, which is harder to measure but if measured would be very good
Maybe a max vs min time save/loss based on if you succeed or fail. The grumble volcano rock hop might be harder than the respawn, but if you fail it you're probably still going to respawn on the other side and save time. Compared to the peach gardens flower cut, even though it's easy to pull off, if somehow you fail it by crashing into the hedge and ending up in the flowers, for example, then you're losing time overall. The formula would be very similar, but would also factor in an unsuccesful attempt. The probability of failure score is just 5 minus the difficulty of the shortcut, meaning the GV rock hop with a difficulty of 3.62 has a failure score of 1.38. Let's assume that failing the rock hop saves the same amount of time as simply attempting the respawn, minus 0.5 seconds for arguments sake. That means it saves 3.1 seconds if failed and 5.2 seconds if succeeded. Using my new system, the success score remains the same as yours at 2.532, and the unsuccesful score is 3.1/1.22^(1.38) = 2.356, so the total score of the shortcut is 2.532 + 2.356 = 4.888 Let's contrast that to the current system's best shortcut, the BC3 regular cut. The successful shortcut remains the same at 4.161, an unsuccesful shortcut we'll say loses 4 seconds (the time it takes to respawn, I believe, and the respawn is back where you started). The unsuccessful cut saves -4 seconds (because it loses time), so the unsuccesful score is -4/1.22^(2.28) = -2.542. Therefore the shortcut has a total score of 4.161 - 2.542 = 1.619. That feels a lot more appropriate given the high cost of failure compared to the GV rock hop. I also believe you should remove 0.5 seconds from the score per mushroom if it takes more than 1 mushroom. For example, it doesn't feel fair giving the Delfino square double it's full time save when you blow through 2 mushrooms to complete it when the mud cut only uses 1. You should also subtract any possible remaining mushrooms from a failed shortcut that may result in you losing the mushrooms via falling off. For example, failing the rock hop would possibly lose you 2 mushrooms, so 1 second, whereas failing the GV respawn wouldn't really lose you any mushrooms because why would you try it when you still had some? Because of these, these additions/subtractions should be done before dividing by 1.22^x, so that the likelihood could be factored in. These 2 cuts would then have the adjusted scores: GV rock hop - 4.128 BC3 regular - 0.782 Shortcuts where you could fall off are going to have much worse scores now, but that feels appropriate in all honesty
best shortcut (not really a shortcut but a strategy) is the method where u release a miniturbo into the wall once u enter the waterfall on koopa cape and then turn left and release another minturbo and ride the left wall at nearly shroom speed. i think its the best because its consistent and satisfying. bonus is that it can save you from red shells!! yay!!
I like the idea, but I have two things I would have done differently in your metric: 1. For the shroomless/shroom distinction I would not have just subtracted a fixed amount, but I would have tested how much time a Shroom on a straight piece of road saves in comparison to driving normally and then subtracted that from the "time saved" variable. This way you can really see how much time is saved by the SC and how much is saved by the shroom. 2. I would have also taken into account if a shortcut takes multiple shrooms. This way the Delphino Square double SC would have been deduced the shroom score twice, since it takes 2 shrooms.
@@maxdragonsoul5553 the ultra that was shown in the video saves less time than the shroom cut that was shown in the video. absolutely no one does shroom stop ultra, and no stop ultra is way faster than anything else but very difficult
I feel how close to the end of a track should play a factor. Sure peach gardens is easier than mushroom gorge gap jumps but I guarantee far more people have won a race thanks to the gorge jump at the finish line than the peach gardens cut that is on the start of lap 3. Edit: I see my exact comparison has been made already but ill leave this up cause that's funny to me.
Thinking about GV respawn and DSDS double, I'm wondering if I was the only one who factored in online interactions like targetshocks and traps when giving my difficulty score in the polls.
this video is clearly wrong. it is well-known that the koopa cape ramp is not only the easiest shortcut in the game, but that it also cuts off a huge amount of the minimap, which is of course what made it a shortcut in the first place.
I mean the 'time saved' shouldve been in comparision to, if u used them, how much time you saved from using those mushrooms in either the straight before or after the turn
![ปฏิเสธไม่ไหว (Crush on you) - LIPTA feat. No One Else [Official MV]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/NBw1jF342vw/mqdefault.jpg)
Big fry I miss my family please give them back
Only if you have enough rupees
@@bigfry5 give them back or i will find you >:D
@@bigfry5 come back when you're a little, mmmm... richer
hol up
The only other factor I think that could be considered in a part 3 to this is the risk reward ratio rather than just time save. For instance, if you fail the grass cut you might lose 2 seconds. But if you fail a rainbow road track skip you might lose 5 seconds. This factors in how risky a given cut is.
That’s actually not a bad idea, idk if people considered that when considering difficulty so if I redid this video I could include that
@@bigfry5 you would just have to factor it into your equation. I’m not good with math but I bet you could find a way. Put out a new survey and have people not consider time loss in difficulty and then do that part on your own.
worst shortcut is a lie. It's been speculated the hippity hoppity strat improves luck by 200% making it worth it every single time
*speculated* ruins the joke by a lot. replace it with "known"
You forgot the coolness metric in your calculations
koopa cave hop hop #1
I like metric-based rankings like this because they're objective once the admittedly subjective, but concrete criteria are determined. Then the numbers can be adjusted if we think they did a poor job.
I think that, instead of giving a bonus to shroomless cuts, you should have introduced what I'll call an "accessibility" stat to generalize based on the number of shrooms the cut takes (e.g. dock points from Delfino double cut for requiring 2 shrooms).
Excellent video!
i think that another factor to consider is the proximity to the end of the lap: mg gap jump can take you from 7th to 3rd and you finish immediately after. however for pg grass cut, it's right at the start of the lap, meaning there's more time for you to be shocked/blued and for you to lose your position. proximity to end of lap makes mg gapjump much stronger and pg grasscut much weaker
True, there’s a lot of nuanced things like that that I could have added but I didn’t 💪🏽
one slight methodological critique is the choice to use absolute time versus something like shortcut time save divided by total track time. Shortcuts which save less time, but in short tracks will be disadvantaged to shortcuts that save an average amount of time on a long track.
a better way would be shortcut time divided by average difference between first and second place, which is harder to measure but if measured would be very good
was gonna come to the comments to write the same critique lol glad somebody else thought the same as me
Maybe a max vs min time save/loss based on if you succeed or fail. The grumble volcano rock hop might be harder than the respawn, but if you fail it you're probably still going to respawn on the other side and save time. Compared to the peach gardens flower cut, even though it's easy to pull off, if somehow you fail it by crashing into the hedge and ending up in the flowers, for example, then you're losing time overall.
The formula would be very similar, but would also factor in an unsuccesful attempt. The probability of failure score is just 5 minus the difficulty of the shortcut, meaning the GV rock hop with a difficulty of 3.62 has a failure score of 1.38.
Let's assume that failing the rock hop saves the same amount of time as simply attempting the respawn, minus 0.5 seconds for arguments sake. That means it saves 3.1 seconds if failed and 5.2 seconds if succeeded.
Using my new system, the success score remains the same as yours at 2.532, and the unsuccesful score is 3.1/1.22^(1.38) = 2.356, so the total score of the shortcut is 2.532 + 2.356 = 4.888
Let's contrast that to the current system's best shortcut, the BC3 regular cut. The successful shortcut remains the same at 4.161, an unsuccesful shortcut we'll say loses 4 seconds (the time it takes to respawn, I believe, and the respawn is back where you started). The unsuccessful cut saves -4 seconds (because it loses time), so the unsuccesful score is -4/1.22^(2.28) = -2.542. Therefore the shortcut has a total score of 4.161 - 2.542 = 1.619. That feels a lot more appropriate given the high cost of failure compared to the GV rock hop.
I also believe you should remove 0.5 seconds from the score per mushroom if it takes more than 1 mushroom. For example, it doesn't feel fair giving the Delfino square double it's full time save when you blow through 2 mushrooms to complete it when the mud cut only uses 1. You should also subtract any possible remaining mushrooms from a failed shortcut that may result in you losing the mushrooms via falling off. For example, failing the rock hop would possibly lose you 2 mushrooms, so 1 second, whereas failing the GV respawn wouldn't really lose you any mushrooms because why would you try it when you still had some? Because of these, these additions/subtractions should be done before dividing by 1.22^x, so that the likelihood could be factored in.
These 2 cuts would then have the adjusted scores:
GV rock hop - 4.128
BC3 regular - 0.782
Shortcuts where you could fall off are going to have much worse scores now, but that feels appropriate in all honesty
best shortcut (not really a shortcut but a strategy) is the method where u release a miniturbo into the wall once u enter the waterfall on koopa cape and then turn left and release another minturbo and ride the left wall at nearly shroom speed. i think its the best because its consistent and satisfying. bonus is that it can save you from red shells!! yay!!
I like the idea, but I have two things I would have done differently in your metric:
1. For the shroomless/shroom distinction I would not have just subtracted a fixed amount, but I would have tested how much time a Shroom on a straight piece of road saves in comparison to driving normally and then subtracted that from the "time saved" variable. This way you can really see how much time is saved by the SC and how much is saved by the shroom.
2. I would have also taken into account if a shortcut takes multiple shrooms. This way the Delphino Square double SC would have been deduced the shroom score twice, since it takes 2 shrooms.
when you blow up this should be redone, imagine like 25k ppl taking the poll
Funky Kong is an affront to science and thus cannot be determined with it
just so you know, bc3 shroom cut saves more than ultra does
i'm assuming you mean shroomless ultra
@@maxdragonsoul5553 the ultra that was shown in the video saves less time than the shroom cut that was shown in the video. absolutely no one does shroom stop ultra, and no stop ultra is way faster than anything else but very difficult
Saving 5 seconds in a short track is more beneficial than in a long one
Nice vid mate love it
Commenting for algorithm. GL on this popping off!
AMAZING VIDEO🎉🎉🎉
I feel how close to the end of a track should play a factor. Sure peach gardens is easier than mushroom gorge gap jumps but I guarantee far more people have won a race thanks to the gorge jump at the finish line than the peach gardens cut that is on the start of lap 3.
Edit: I see my exact comparison has been made already but ill leave this up cause that's funny to me.
I expected the gap jump to be higher but others werent too surprising lol
I’m surprised the Toads Factory Shroomless lake jump didn’t make it
i was expecting shrooming over the grass at the start of moonview highway to be number 1
thanks for the factoid my glip glop
Anytime bro🙏
9:22 WHAt i have never seen that before is that a recent shortcut that's cool
I’ve always wondered this nice video
Fun fact: Lava respawn can be made shroomless
Thinking about GV respawn and DSDS double, I'm wondering if I was the only one who factored in online interactions like targetshocks and traps when giving my difficulty score in the polls.
Big fry can we do an sq sometime in da mkw lounge
I was gonna do one today but the season ended so everything’s closed 😭
I’ll stream wws instead
I think you should add a factor of how many shrooms it takes into the formula as the double dock needs 2 but the single needs 1
🔥
nah the koopa cape hippity-hoppity strat saves 10 minutes
I think it could be a cool idea to place the shortcuts on an xy graph instead of converting everything into one number ;)
this video is clearly wrong. it is well-known that the koopa cape ramp is not only the easiest shortcut in the game, but that it also cuts off a huge amount of the minimap, which is of course what made it a shortcut in the first place.
I've never heard of the last one 😭
I mean the 'time saved' shouldve been in comparision to, if u used them, how much time you saved from using those mushrooms in either the straight before or after the turn
How sigma would it be for daddy fry to reply
How did you calculate time saved? Did you do normal route while also using a mushroom when the shortcut uses a mushroom ?
meanwhile ultrashorcuts (time save 2 min xD)
my guess was gv2 wall clip glitch as the worst in the game
I didn’t include ultra shortcuts, but it would fall pretty far down
Big fry please give me back my tongue I cannot speak anymore please
How is the grumble volcano ultra not on this list? It’s stupidly easy and saves nearly the entire race
I didn’t consider ultra shortcuts for this list
@@bigfry5 aaaah, that makes sense. When are you doing the ultra shortcuts list then?
Big fry i have enought rupees can i have my family?
I helped make this video(sort of)
Not sure if you messed up on some of the calculations fx. I get 3.668 for BC3 regular, otherwise it's a pretty cool video
Don’t forget to add 0.5
#freekoopacapehippityhoppitystrat
No luigi circuit ramp cut 😴
I main the sugarscoot what is wrong with my life
about a week ago 😂
Rodriguez Frank Jackson Gary Lewis Sarah
i didnt even know about that final koopa troopa shortcut
The koopa cape hippity hoppoty strat can be done shroomless!!
Man i wanted to see some shortcuts not a mathematics lesson
I hate funky kong sorry.
yeah well, skill issue (for sure)
This formula was completely wrong. You made it to where harder shortcuts are punished, not rewarded. Try again.
why would harder shortcuts be rewarded? that would mean that you're less likely to be able to do them