Eggers could be in the conversation. I think Fargeat could make the cut because I think the "new" academy voters are looking for bold, original, loud, & memorable films.
It's really simple. As great of a job as he did with Dune part 2, there were 5 directors who did an even better job with their respective films this year.
@@jorssu13 It’s even simpler. Dune’s cinematic achievement hasn’t been matched in like decades. And Denis directed it. I’m not going to believe that an Oscar for directing would not include that man for that film.
Well, Munich will be a tough act to follow. Its one of my favourite Spielberg’s, but September 5th sounds like a different enough angle that it could distinguish itself.
I feel like Scott is that guy that really believes in the power of buzz and wants to be responsible for getting films under consideration, he had a similar irrational opinion last year putting The Color Purple extremely high in best picture after he saw an early screening and it was just as insane
The fact that Perri really believes that if Alex Garland's genre film Civil War came out in the fall it would then be in the Oscar conversation just shows how she is not very smart at this job. 😂
@@jacobleckart1699 Yep, I gotta let her know when she's wrong. Maybe she'll learn a few things from my insights but you can’t change people, Perri is what she is.
@@adrianhaynes5315 Yeah they should but they won't cause of genre bias. Denis Villenueve will probably win for the third and final Dune movie but he won't be nominated for this one with the crowded field. Sorry, but it's true.
Here's who I feel are the logical five for Best Director are right now based high profile names and the strong contender achievements. 1. Brady Corbet - The Brutalist 2. Edward Berger - Conclave 3. Steve McQueen - Blitz 3. James Mangold - A Complete Unknown 5. Jason Reitman - Saturday Night
@@sabe11a39 I love the pick of the Mohammad Rasoulof nomination for The Seed of a Sacred Fig, I think that's the highbrow foreign film that will win International Feature Film because it's more serious than Emilia Pérez.
1) I can totally see Brady Corbet winning Best Director. I saw The Brutalist at tiff and I was totally riveted by it. It harkens back to the era of true classic Hollywood epic films, and it is masterful on so many levels. 2) I did see that Woman of the Hour has a theatrical release starting October 11. I saw a poster for it at my local theatre, and it has a release announced at another independent theatre I have been to many times. I cannot wait to see it!
Yeah that's not happening. Furiosa is not an engaging thrilling masterpiece like Fury Road. Nothing could probably top, OH WHAT A DAY, WHAT A LOVELY DAY!!
Best Director will be the most stacked category. Emilia Perez, Anora, The Brutalist, Dune 2 & Conclave are my predictions as of today as well, so a perfect match!! I would also not rule out The Substance, it might be my Number 6. I am one of those people not high on Gladiator 2. Ridley Scott has made good movies lately, but its been ages since we have seen a great one. That paves the way for Dune 2 perfectly. Denis Villeneuve is getting a BD nom, and I won't even dismiss his chances of winning. Yes its slim as of now, and maybe its my personal opinion, but I know for a fact that Dune 2 is something special for many many people, its not just a blockbuster movie, and the fact that someone like Jeff has it so high in his personal list shows it transcends the blockbuster tag and will cement itself besides movies like Terminator 2/Aliens/The Dark Knight.
pls dont explain the plot for every movie lmao especially movies that dont even have a trailer yet. for example, cant imagine having the plot to Parasite explained before seeing it.
I’ve been watching this show since La La Land’s season and I love the conversation, industry knowledge, and discussion. Please keep making these videos! Also, Perri, you’re the only person that has thought of Welcome to Marwen since its opening 😂 For those of us that don’t get access to early screenings or festivals, this movie year has been one of the most dry I can remember for serious awards contenders. I liked Challengers and Dune Part II like everyone else, but I’m excited for The Brutalist and The Room Next Door.
@@Ariverdairshee I'm heading to the Savannah Film Festival to see all the Oscar contenders early and I'll be tuning back in to update everyone. Got you covered! ✌️
Please don’t describe the plot of the movie again, especially that extensively. A little talk about the setting and vibe is fine, but anything more is basically just a spoiler
We really need to talk about The Substance! If there'll ever be an opportunity for the Academy to break that ridiculous bias against genre movies (horrors especially) then this is the one. They have a package here - actress, makeup, sound, editing, director - this is such an unique directorial achievement. It's getting rave reviews, 90% on RT, 4.1 on Letterboxd. For a movie that is supposed to be oh so divisive, this reception is astonishing. I can see younger voters really loving this
@@NathanielAhart Oh yeah, Jeff should've bet $50 on that. September 5 will probably get nominations for acting, writing and Best Picture but not directing, Scott is just a little fanboy and not a great gambler.
I believe you 3 are seriously underestimating how esteemed Dune Part 2 is. It's gonna get most of the awards it's nominated for, including Best Director.
My currect predictions on the Awards expert app (as of 21.9): 18. Tim Fehlbaum (September 5) 17. Jason Reitman (Saturday Night) 16. James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) 15. Ridley Scott (Gladiator II) 14. Todd Phillips (Joker: Folie à Deux) 13. Luca Guadagnino (Queer) 12. Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door) 11. Ali Abbasi (The Apprentice) 10. Edward Berger (Conclave) 9. Mike Flanagan (The Life of Chuck) 8. RaMell Moss (Nickel Boys) 7. Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing) 6. Bradley Corbet (The Brutalist) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Mohammad Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig) 4. Steve McQueen (Blitz) 3. Jacques Audilard (Emilia Pérez) 2. Sean Baker (Anora) 1. Denis Villenueve (Dune: Part Two)
Sing Sing is the BEST MOVIE of the year and deserves nominations in most categories. The movie was shot on 16 mm film, in 19 days, with a very small crew. The DP, Pat Scola should be nominated for an Oscar for cinematography because the visual look, the lighting, the film choice, all created the naturalistic atmosphere to tell the story. Accompanied with Bryce Dessner's score that sells the beautiful scenes and intimate facial expressions. And kudos to the director, Greg Kwedar, who allowed dialogue to be ad-libbed at times, which created the emotional essence throughout the film that tugs at your heart. The cast deserves best ensemble because 90% of the cast are the formerly incarcerated men that participated in the RTA theater program while in Sing Sing and that authenticity shines. And what can you say about Coleman Domingo.... he deserves the Oscar this year, his performance is perfectly understated, and he allows the other men to shine because this is their story. Well Done!! Also, Clarence Maclin and Paul Raci both deserve best supporting nominations. Their performances tie the strings that pull the film to its brilliance. Best movie overall in a very long time and well worth the emotional journey.
@@agungs8564 I couldn't agree more, it's fine but not awards worthy. It's not that emotionally resonate or moving, the story is kinda dull and empty and you know where it's going from the start. I'm very surprised it's been so overpraised and overrated.
I know Perri like me has been burned by Horrors snub at the Oscars. But Dan is not the only person not usually championing horror that keeps bringing up Nosferatu. I think it has so much going for it with Nosferatu’s history with film and the cast has people willing to give Eggars a chance that wouldn’t normally. I think Eggars hasn’t been nominated for his past 3 masterpieces is because academy voters weren’t willing to even check out his films because of the genre alone. Now that a lot of them are going to throw him a bone I think that they will only be blown away by how challenging and smart his films are. Of course no one’s seen it yet so Nosferatu could be a disaster. But if it falls in line with his past works I think it’s a shoe in.
This is what your personal list would be right and not your prediction? Cuz there is zero chance that Rose Glass or the film overall gets anywhere near the awards conversation
I should’ve specified, this isn’t a predictions list. These are just the 5 I’d nominate based on 3 films this year that I loved & 2 films I’m highly anticipating.
Having seen most of the films you've mentioned, I can totally agree with that top 5 list. In particular, I think Baker, Corbet, Villeneuve and Audiard are getting near to locked in nominations. Still Blitz, The Nickel Boys and September 5 to go though.
Had to skip all the Anora spoilers. Haven't seen it yet - please, guys. For future reference, even if you mention there is a twist in a movie (like Conclave), when you watch the movie you have the twist in mind which you wouldn't otherwise, so it skews your viewing experience. That's the definition of a spoiler. But now to the video - I'm not sure on Dune 2. I feel like it's similar to LOTR - Dune Messiah would seem like the time to honour Villeneuve. Partly because the story is unfinished and partly because of the repetition from Dune 1, I'm not sure Villeneuve gets in here. Similar on McQueen, despite his reputation, he hasn't received a nomination outside of 12 Years A Slave. It would seem like Anora and The Brutalist are locks for best director at this point and maybe Audiard too. Currently my final two picks would be Edward Berger and in the absence of a female contender (I would love The Substance to get in but I think it too weird for the Academy), I'm going with Ramell Ross for The Nickel Boys
If you have that big of a problem with spoiling, then maybe don't watch a video where you know certain films are gonna be discussed. Just a suggestion.
Can't wait to see Jeff's reaction to Emilia Pérez. Given how he couldn't stand The Color Purple musical last year like me, I'm guessing he'll definitely dislike this too. Here's hoping! 🤞
It’s ridiculous to just call that movie ‘Lee’ as if there’s a name recall there (Napoleon, Lincoln etc.). Bruce Lee? Harper Lee? The orig long title makes more sense.
Denis is so obviously getting nominated and might even win. It's the most director driven movie of the year. Nobody is going to see these festival movies that nobody has ever heard of. Also having Ridley Scott over Denis is wild too.
The directors branch of the academy REALLY despises mainstream Hollywood blockbusters unless it's something like Oppenheimer. They snubbed Denis for the first Dune, Joseph Kosinski for Top Gun Maverick, and Greta Gerwig for Barbie. They're not afraid of going rogue and replacing them with artsier foreign films and nominating someone like Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round, or Ryusuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car, or Ruben Ostlund for Triangle of Sadness, or Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest. The directors branch tastes are very distinct from the rest of the academy and it wouldn't be surprising at all if Denis got snubbed again.
@@zachrincon327 if he got snubbed it will absolutely not be for Ridley Scott. And I don't think it will happen again because it Dune Pt II was so much more well received by both critics and audiences than the first, and the director race this year feels more scarce. 1. Corbet 2. Baker 3. Villeneuve 4. Audiard 5. Ross
@@alejandromangieri1495 oh Ridley isn't even sniffing the Best Director race, Denis has a much better chance than Ridley does at a nomination. All I'm saying is I wouldn't be shocked if the directors branch goes rouge and snubs Denis again. The field isn't too strong at the moment so I have him getting in. My 5 is similar to yours I have 1. Sean Baker 2. Brady Corbet 3. Jacques Audiard 4. Denis Villeneuve 5. Edward Berger. Although I am toying with the idea of Ross taking out either Berger or Villeneuve in my predictions as the surprise Best Director pick.
@@zachrincon327 the top 3 are locks I would say, esp Baker and Corbet. Another Villeneuve snub would be so disappointing considering Dune II was such a step up from the first and one of the most biggest directorial feats of the year, but it can def happen. I'm rooting for Ross because the whole POV way Nickel Boys is shot is very creative and ambitious, very Glazer esque. Fargeat would be a very inspired pick and it would be 100% deserved but it is a very long shot, maybe the collective guilt of having an all male lineup will work in her favor.
@@alejandromangieri1495 Fargeat should absolutely be nominated but unfortunately The Substance tops out at a Best Makeup and Hairstyling nomination on its very best day and I'd be surprised if it went beyond that. Ross is an interesting one, the style of the film is seems very unique (sight unseen just based on the trailer). And I get The Zone of Interest comparison but Ramell Ross doesn't have Jonathan Glazer name recognition/clout, like he doesn't have an Under The Skin or Sexy Beast in his catalogue that his peers may know him from. Name recognition/previous accolades go far in being the surprise Best Director pick imo.
Kinda sad you guys didn’t talk at all about The life of chuck… I wanted to know your takes on whether that will be an awards play at all after that TIFF win
The days of directors making hit mainstream box office films that are nominated or even considered for best director, is LONG, LONG, gone. The Oscars might as well be the Spirit Awards. Not that this is a bad thing, but the Oscars used to be a way to promote the mainstream movie industry. Now it is only for film buffs, not movie-goers. All these films that people are obsessing about won't be seen by most people. Not even on streaming sites. Quality mainstream movies are no more and have morphed into event TV series. That's where the best, accessible, buzzy entertainment is.
I can see Anora winning Picture, Actress and Screenplay but Brutalist wins director and a mess of techs, like Cinematography, Score, Production Design and Actor for Brody
The only awards show worth watching!! Been a fan since the very first season five or six years ago. Though Mantz continues to mispronounce Almodóvar’s name. The accent is on the second ‘o’, not the first. AlmoDOvar.
Perri, you're right for once about Denis Villenueve missing because they gave the first Dune 6 Oscars and Dune: Part Two is the Two Towers with not much passion as the other serious dramas this year.
Since 2017, my pick for Best Director has gone one to not only be nominated by win at the Oscars but for Eliza Hittman for Never Rarely Sometimes Always who wasn’t even nominated. So as long as Villeneuve remains my pick, he’s either winning or getting snubbed.
Sadly I don’t think Denis Villeneuve is getting nominated for director. If he gets nominated for a Dune movie it would be Messiah. For those who have read the book Messiah is more serious and less action and more talking. It could be a real chance for the actors to deliver the best performances in the dune trilogy and based on the subject matter in Messiah it could be a more awards darling kind of movie. Dune part 2 as good as it is has too much action and is a little too populist for the Oscars.
I think that is ok. People should be nominated per merit. If anything, I am curious about how many films were directed by females this years. There seemed to be a lot last year.
I don't see Denis Villeneuve getting in either. Also, should there be a school for Americans to at least learn how to pronounce his name? It really isn't that hard.
Here are my dream picks Jacques Audiard for Emilia Perez Goran Stolevski for Housekeeping For Beginners Molly Manning Walker for How To Have Sex Esteban Arango for Ponyboi And Luke Gilford for National Anthem
I believe Denis Villenueve will be nominated by the academy. Besides directing masterpiece film Dune 2, he is a widely known and good director. So this time, I disagree with Perri.
My Top 5 Predictions for Dirrctor are Edward Berger-Conclave Sean Baker- Anora Brady Corbett- The Brutalist Steve McQueen- Blitz Jacque Odiard- Emilia Perex HM's Jason Reitman- Saturday Night, Robert Eggers,-Nosferatu, Drnis Villeneuve- Dune 2, Ridley Scott- Gladiator 2, Jon M Chu- Wicked
Exodus, Napoleon, Alien Covenant, House of Gucci...I'm feeling it too...how many, from the visionary director of headlines do we need to see until he finally delivers...it's been a while for this guy
Eggers could be in the conversation. I think Fargeat could make the cut because I think the "new" academy voters are looking for bold, original, loud, & memorable films.
I really do not understand how Denis is not like a lock for this
It's really simple. As great of a job as he did with Dune part 2, there were 5 directors who did an even better job with their respective films this year.
@@jorssu13 It’s even simpler. Dune’s cinematic achievement hasn’t been matched in like decades. And Denis directed it. I’m not going to believe that an Oscar for directing would not include that man for that film.
He absolutely is a lock.
@@lukeknopke2574 well, the oscars don't care about your feelings.
@@MichaelBriggs3Absolutely agree. Dune was wonderful.
That push for Septembre 5 is so over the top it’s irrationnal. Perri and Jeff are right to be puzzled.
This fellow is probably a Zionist and he thinks September 5 is a movie that's good for Israel.
Strongly suspect it's an unintentional Zionist dog whistle.
Well, Munich will be a tough act to follow. Its one of my favourite Spielberg’s, but September 5th sounds like a different enough angle that it could distinguish itself.
You gotta respect it. Most of awards pundits just predict what is popular at the moment and Scott’S going off only his own take.
I feel like Scott is that guy that really believes in the power of buzz and wants to be responsible for getting films under consideration, he had a similar irrational opinion last year putting The Color Purple extremely high in best picture after he saw an early screening and it was just as insane
The fact that Perri really believes that if Alex Garland's genre film Civil War came out in the fall it would then be in the Oscar conversation just shows how she is not very smart at this job. 😂
And yet you’ve donated hundreds of dollars to this channel
@@jacobleckart1699 Yep, I gotta let her know when she's wrong. Maybe she'll learn a few things from my insights but you can’t change people, Perri is what she is.
hope-dicting rather than objectively predicting 🤦🏽♂️
Mantz was too ridiculous with that Sep 5 push
From the films I’ve so far seen Dune Part2 and The Substance should get Director nominations
@@adrianhaynes5315 Yeah they should but they won't cause of genre bias. Denis Villenueve will probably win for the third and final Dune movie but he won't be nominated for this one with the crowded field. Sorry, but it's true.
@@davidfilmexpert I’m going to punt that he will be nominated, but unfortunately she definitely won’t
Would you ever consider having guests on the show? I'd love to see a guest spot from Dan Murrell, William Bibbiani, or Liz Shannon Miller.
Great idea, I'd love that!
I second Dan Murrell. I can't think of another TH-camr off the top of my head who has as much integrity as Dan.
I think it’s a thin year for directors. The worm scene is the scene of the year.
Here's who I feel are the logical five for Best Director are right now based high profile names and the strong contender achievements.
1. Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
2. Edward Berger - Conclave
3. Steve McQueen - Blitz
3. James Mangold - A Complete Unknown
5. Jason Reitman - Saturday Night
Jeff channeling Weekend At Bernie’s
1. Brady Corbet
2. Sean Baker
3. Jacques Audiard
4. Pedro Almodovar
5. Mohammad Rasoulof
I just got this crazy feeling...
@@sabe11a39 I love the pick of the Mohammad Rasoulof nomination for The Seed of a Sacred Fig, I think that's the highbrow foreign film that will win International Feature Film because it's more serious than Emilia Pérez.
Manz bout to lose 20$
1) I can totally see Brady Corbet winning Best Director. I saw The Brutalist at tiff and I was totally riveted by it. It harkens back to the era of true classic Hollywood epic films, and it is masterful on so many levels.
2) I did see that Woman of the Hour has a theatrical release starting October 11. I saw a poster for it at my local theatre, and it has a release announced at another independent theatre I have been to many times. I cannot wait to see it!
Idc what anybody says Furiosa deserves nominations for directing, best picture, & supporting for Hemsworth.
not really
People also don't care bout what u said
@@agungs8564 you're literally nothing. Pretty much the equivalent mentally & physically to a stepped on bug.
Yeah that's not happening. Furiosa is not an engaging thrilling masterpiece like Fury Road. Nothing could probably top, OH WHAT A DAY, WHAT A LOVELY DAY!!
Best Director will be the most stacked category. Emilia Perez, Anora, The Brutalist, Dune 2 & Conclave are my predictions as of today as well, so a perfect match!! I would also not rule out The Substance, it might be my Number 6.
I am one of those people not high on Gladiator 2. Ridley Scott has made good movies lately, but its been ages since we have seen a great one.
That paves the way for Dune 2 perfectly. Denis Villeneuve is getting a BD nom, and I won't even dismiss his chances of winning. Yes its slim as of now, and maybe its my personal opinion, but I know for a fact that Dune 2 is something special for many many people, its not just a blockbuster movie, and the fact that someone like Jeff has it so high in his personal list shows it transcends the blockbuster tag and will cement itself besides movies like Terminator 2/Aliens/The Dark Knight.
pls dont explain the plot for every movie lmao especially movies that dont even have a trailer yet. for example, cant imagine having the plot to Parasite explained before seeing it.
I agree. If anyone watching wants to know they can easily look it up themselves.
Just a little touch but no need to get deep in it
I’ve been watching this show since La La Land’s season and I love the conversation, industry knowledge, and discussion. Please keep making these videos!
Also, Perri, you’re the only person that has thought of Welcome to Marwen since its opening 😂
For those of us that don’t get access to early screenings or festivals, this movie year has been one of the most dry I can remember for serious awards contenders. I liked Challengers and Dune Part II like everyone else, but I’m excited for The Brutalist and The Room Next Door.
@@Ariverdairshee I'm heading to the Savannah Film Festival to see all the Oscar contenders early and I'll be tuning back in to update everyone. Got you covered! ✌️
Please don’t describe the plot of the movie again, especially that extensively. A little talk about the setting and vibe is fine, but anything more is basically just a spoiler
💯
We really need to talk about The Substance! If there'll ever be an opportunity for the Academy to break that ridiculous bias against genre movies (horrors especially) then this is the one. They have a package here - actress, makeup, sound, editing, director - this is such an unique directorial achievement. It's getting rave reviews, 90% on RT, 4.1 on Letterboxd. For a movie that is supposed to be oh so divisive, this reception is astonishing. I can see younger voters really loving this
That’s going to be the easiest $20 Jeff will ever make lol
@@davidfilmexpert I was thinking the same exact thing!!
@@NathanielAhart Oh yeah, Jeff should've bet $50 on that. September 5 will probably get nominations for acting, writing and Best Picture but not directing, Scott is just a little fanboy and not a great gambler.
@@davidfilmexpert We’ll see how it takes off, I’m not even entirely sold on that just yet lol. Looking forward to it though!
I believe you 3 are seriously underestimating how esteemed Dune Part 2 is. It's gonna get most of the awards it's nominated for, including Best Director.
Sean Baker will win best Director
1. Sean Baker
2. Brady Cobert
3. Denis Villeneuve
4. Jacques Audiard
5. Steve McQueen
Most likely lineup even if the orders wrong
As a European fan of Robbie Williams it was just gutsy of him to try and campaign that on the US. No one knows who he is overseas.
My currect predictions on the Awards expert app (as of 21.9):
18. Tim Fehlbaum (September 5)
17. Jason Reitman (Saturday Night)
16. James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
15. Ridley Scott (Gladiator II)
14. Todd Phillips (Joker: Folie à Deux)
13. Luca Guadagnino (Queer)
12. Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door)
11. Ali Abbasi (The Apprentice)
10. Edward Berger (Conclave)
9. Mike Flanagan (The Life of Chuck)
8. RaMell Moss (Nickel Boys)
7. Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing)
6. Bradley Corbet (The Brutalist)
---------------------------------------------------------
5. Mohammad Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig)
4. Steve McQueen (Blitz)
3. Jacques Audilard (Emilia Pérez)
2. Sean Baker (Anora)
1. Denis Villenueve (Dune: Part Two)
Sing Sing is the BEST MOVIE of the year and deserves nominations in most categories. The movie was shot on 16 mm film, in 19 days, with a very small crew. The DP, Pat Scola should be nominated for an Oscar for cinematography because the visual look, the lighting, the film choice, all created the naturalistic atmosphere to tell the story. Accompanied with Bryce Dessner's score that sells the beautiful scenes and intimate facial expressions. And kudos to the director, Greg Kwedar, who allowed dialogue to be ad-libbed at times, which created the emotional essence throughout the film that tugs at your heart. The cast deserves best ensemble because 90% of the cast are the formerly incarcerated men that participated in the RTA theater program while in Sing Sing and that authenticity shines. And what can you say about Coleman Domingo.... he deserves the Oscar this year, his performance is perfectly understated, and he allows the other men to shine because this is their story. Well Done!! Also, Clarence Maclin and Paul Raci both deserve best supporting nominations. Their performances tie the strings that pull the film to its brilliance. Best movie overall in a very long time and well worth the emotional journey.
Meh
@@agungs8564 I couldn't agree more, it's fine but not awards worthy. It's not that emotionally resonate or moving, the story is kinda dull and empty and you know where it's going from the start. I'm very surprised it's been so overpraised and overrated.
thank you for bringing up coralie fargeat, perri. I think it's a real possibility.
I know Perri like me has been burned by Horrors snub at the Oscars. But Dan is not the only person not usually championing horror that keeps bringing up Nosferatu. I think it has so much going for it with Nosferatu’s history with film and the cast has people willing to give Eggars a chance that wouldn’t normally. I think Eggars hasn’t been nominated for his past 3 masterpieces is because academy voters weren’t willing to even check out his films because of the genre alone. Now that a lot of them are going to throw him a bone I think that they will only be blown away by how challenging and smart his films are. Of course no one’s seen it yet so Nosferatu could be a disaster. But if it falls in line with his past works I think it’s a shoe in.
Jeff recently appears either in a bathrobe or with sunglasses...
I had a migraine. We taped on Tuesday morning. I was so sick Monday I couldn’t write.
Hope you feel better soon Jeff.
My 5 would be:
Rose Glass
Coralie Fargeat
Denis Villeneuve
& going completely on faith because I haven’t seen either film
Sean Baker
Robert Eggers
Rose Glass has a 0% chance, as much as I would adore that nomination
@JDotWill Robert Eggers? Yeah as much as I'd love to it. I highly doubt that happens sadly
This is what your personal list would be right and not your prediction? Cuz there is zero chance that Rose Glass or the film overall gets anywhere near the awards conversation
I should’ve specified, this isn’t a predictions list. These are just the 5 I’d nominate based on 3 films this year that I loved & 2 films I’m highly anticipating.
Having seen most of the films you've mentioned, I can totally agree with that top 5 list. In particular, I think Baker, Corbet, Villeneuve and Audiard are getting near to locked in nominations. Still Blitz, The Nickel Boys and September 5 to go though.
Had to skip all the Anora spoilers. Haven't seen it yet - please, guys.
For future reference, even if you mention there is a twist in a movie (like Conclave), when you watch the movie you have the twist in mind which you wouldn't otherwise, so it skews your viewing experience. That's the definition of a spoiler.
But now to the video - I'm not sure on Dune 2. I feel like it's similar to LOTR - Dune Messiah would seem like the time to honour Villeneuve. Partly because the story is unfinished and partly because of the repetition from Dune 1, I'm not sure Villeneuve gets in here.
Similar on McQueen, despite his reputation, he hasn't received a nomination outside of 12 Years A Slave.
It would seem like Anora and The Brutalist are locks for best director at this point and maybe Audiard too.
Currently my final two picks would be Edward Berger and in the absence of a female contender (I would love The Substance to get in but I think it too weird for the Academy), I'm going with Ramell Ross for The Nickel Boys
They didn’t spoil anything that wasn’t in the trailer
@@JScotty4Reel - What, the twist is in the trailer?
If you have that big of a problem with spoiling, then maybe don't watch a video where you know certain films are gonna be discussed. Just a suggestion.
@@jorssu13 - Spoiler alert is a common expression. Otherwise nobody would watch anything.
Can't wait to see Jeff's reaction to Emilia Pérez. Given how he couldn't stand The Color Purple musical last year like me, I'm guessing he'll definitely dislike this too. Here's hoping! 🤞
Yes! I can always rely on Peri to mention horror. The substance hasn’t opened where I am but I’m seeing rave reviews online
I’m surprised that no one chose Lee last week. I saw the trailer for it yesterday before The Substance & it looks very much like an Oscar film
It’s ridiculous to just call that movie ‘Lee’ as if there’s a name recall there (Napoleon, Lincoln etc.). Bruce Lee? Harper Lee? The orig long title makes more sense.
Love those FYC side bets!
Denis is so obviously getting nominated and might even win. It's the most director driven movie of the year. Nobody is going to see these festival movies that nobody has ever heard of. Also having Ridley Scott over Denis is wild too.
The directors branch of the academy REALLY despises mainstream Hollywood blockbusters unless it's something like Oppenheimer. They snubbed Denis for the first Dune, Joseph Kosinski for Top Gun Maverick, and Greta Gerwig for Barbie. They're not afraid of going rogue and replacing them with artsier foreign films and nominating someone like Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round, or Ryusuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car, or Ruben Ostlund for Triangle of Sadness, or Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest. The directors branch tastes are very distinct from the rest of the academy and it wouldn't be surprising at all if Denis got snubbed again.
@@zachrincon327 if he got snubbed it will absolutely not be for Ridley Scott. And I don't think it will happen again because it Dune Pt II was so much more well received by both critics and audiences than the first, and the director race this year feels more scarce. 1. Corbet 2. Baker 3. Villeneuve 4. Audiard 5. Ross
@@alejandromangieri1495 oh Ridley isn't even sniffing the Best Director race, Denis has a much better chance than Ridley does at a nomination. All I'm saying is I wouldn't be shocked if the directors branch goes rouge and snubs Denis again. The field isn't too strong at the moment so I have him getting in. My 5 is similar to yours I have 1. Sean Baker 2. Brady Corbet 3. Jacques Audiard 4. Denis Villeneuve 5. Edward Berger. Although I am toying with the idea of Ross taking out either Berger or Villeneuve in my predictions as the surprise Best Director pick.
@@zachrincon327 the top 3 are locks I would say, esp Baker and Corbet. Another Villeneuve snub would be so disappointing considering Dune II was such a step up from the first and one of the most biggest directorial feats of the year, but it can def happen. I'm rooting for Ross because the whole POV way Nickel Boys is shot is very creative and ambitious, very Glazer esque. Fargeat would be a very inspired pick and it would be 100% deserved but it is a very long shot, maybe the collective guilt of having an all male lineup will work in her favor.
@@alejandromangieri1495 Fargeat should absolutely be nominated but unfortunately The Substance tops out at a Best Makeup and Hairstyling nomination on its very best day and I'd be surprised if it went beyond that. Ross is an interesting one, the style of the film is seems very unique (sight unseen just based on the trailer). And I get The Zone of Interest comparison but Ramell Ross doesn't have Jonathan Glazer name recognition/clout, like he doesn't have an Under The Skin or Sexy Beast in his catalogue that his peers may know him from. Name recognition/previous accolades go far in being the surprise Best Director pick imo.
I saw September 5 at Venice and it’s a great film. I really hope Fehlbaum gets a nomination.
My favorite panel.
Kinda sad you guys didn’t talk at all about The life of chuck… I wanted to know your takes on whether that will be an awards play at all after that TIFF win
NO Denis Villeneuve ????
Dune pt.2?????? This is not the Independent sprit awards😂😂😂
Its Oscers
@blackkcinamacritic Denis hasn't got a Directing nom since Arrival. These guys are insiders. They know their history
Assigned? Who does Perri work for?
Why no mention of Life of Chuck?
You guys never mention Strange Darling for some reason. Its far and away the best film of the year so far.
The days of directors making hit mainstream box office films that are nominated or even considered for best director, is LONG, LONG, gone. The Oscars might as well be the Spirit Awards. Not that this is a bad thing, but the Oscars used to be a way to promote the mainstream movie industry. Now it is only for film buffs, not movie-goers. All these films that people are obsessing about won't be seen by most people. Not even on streaming sites.
Quality mainstream movies are no more and have morphed into event TV series. That's where the best, accessible, buzzy entertainment is.
No way Gladiator 2 over Dune 2
PERIODDD EMILIA PEREZ
I can see Anora winning Picture, Actress and Screenplay but Brutalist wins director and a mess of techs, like Cinematography, Score, Production Design and Actor for Brody
The only awards show worth watching!! Been a fan since the very first season five or six years ago. Though Mantz continues to mispronounce Almodóvar’s name. The accent is on the second ‘o’, not the first. AlmoDOvar.
I have the same 5 👏👏👏 love you guys!!!
Really baffles me why Americans pronounce Perez that way. Don’t emphasize the second syllable. Say it like you say Paris or Gomez. Pleeeaase.
No one mentioned George Miller for Furiosa?
Perri, you're right for once about Denis Villenueve missing because they gave the first Dune 6 Oscars and Dune: Part Two is the Two Towers with not much passion as the other serious dramas this year.
What Lies Beneath was awesome.
Since 2017, my pick for Best Director has gone one to not only be nominated by win at the Oscars but for Eliza Hittman for Never Rarely Sometimes Always who wasn’t even nominated. So as long as Villeneuve remains my pick, he’s either winning or getting snubbed.
Based on the comments here i cant even watch this video, which sucks cuz i love these discussions. Do a better job team!
Denis Villineuve is a front runner for the Best Director Oscar. Any comment to the contrary is laughable.
Sadly I don’t think Denis Villeneuve is getting nominated for director. If he gets nominated for a Dune movie it would be Messiah. For those who have read the book Messiah is more serious and less action and more talking. It could be a real chance for the actors to deliver the best performances in the dune trilogy and based on the subject matter in Messiah it could be a more awards darling kind of movie. Dune part 2 as good as it is has too much action and is a little too populist for the Oscars.
Jeff… Those sunglasses are sweet… What brand if you don’t mind?
Denis Villeneuve 100%
I think Jeff is right. The female directors may miss out on nominations this year
If a director didn't do a good enough job, they shouldn't get in. Male or female. Black or white. It's as simple as that.
I think that is ok. People should be nominated per merit. If anything, I am curious about how many films were directed by females this years. There seemed to be a lot last year.
I don't see Denis Villeneuve getting in either. Also, should there be a school for Americans to at least learn how to pronounce his name? It really isn't that hard.
Mantz implying The Walk is not a good movie is an L take, sorry
Very happy to see our first bet of the season. Anyway we can get the stats on the previous bets. I feel like Jeff has the most losses.
the brutalist is brutally boring
Alright I will take the bait and it's time to skewer Peri for her take on Dune Part 2. Ha Ha
Here are my dream picks
Jacques Audiard for Emilia Perez
Goran Stolevski for Housekeeping For Beginners
Molly Manning Walker for How To Have Sex
Esteban Arango for Ponyboi
And
Luke Gilford for National Anthem
Thumbs up just for actually mentioning the movies.
Ridley Scott's most recent Oscar nomination was for “The Martian” (2015)
My list is the same as Jeff. Very good insight.
I believe Denis Villenueve will be nominated by the academy. Besides directing masterpiece film Dune 2, he is a widely known and good director. So this time, I disagree with Perri.
No respect for Villeneuve.
My Top 5 Predictions for Dirrctor are
Edward Berger-Conclave
Sean Baker- Anora
Brady Corbett- The Brutalist
Steve McQueen- Blitz
Jacque Odiard- Emilia Perex
HM's Jason Reitman- Saturday Night, Robert Eggers,-Nosferatu, Drnis Villeneuve- Dune 2, Ridley Scott- Gladiator 2, Jon M Chu- Wicked
Gladiator 2 is gonna be trash
Exodus, Napoleon, Alien Covenant, House of Gucci...I'm feeling it too...how many, from the visionary director of headlines do we need to see until he finally delivers...it's been a while for this guy
What happened to u three? I look like you all lost like 20 pounds😮
The substance is the best female directed film of all time.
My top 5:
Sean Baker - Anora
Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
Jacques Audiard - Emília Perez
Steve Mcqueen - Blitz
Ramel Ross - Nickel Boys
Is there a narrative to get a black director an Oscar and is it Strve McQueen since he got robbed for 12 Years a Slave?
I am black and I hope not. I just want the narrative to be about merit. If he deserves it , then wonderful. I just want a fair opportunity.
@@aprilnewell5434Yes. Thank you.