Another aspect for an endless war in Ukraine may be that with unsettled territory issues Ukrainy may not join NATO. This means that if Ukraine should ever been able to fully be part of the "western world" (EU as well as NATO) Russia must be thrown out of Ukraine, including Crimea as well as Donbass. This must be the ultimate goal of all western support during and after this war.
Some really interesting points you make Anders. Thank you for taking the time to make this video, and hopefully we wont have to wait too long on the next one!
Finally, I've been waiting for a new video to drop. Thank you so much for once again sharing your insight. The perspective of someone with your experience is very valuable to all of us who wanna keep up with what is happening. And this video is about a topic I'm very curious about. Tak for at du gider at tage dig tid til at dele din viden/indsigt med os Anders, sætter virkelig stor pris på det....
@Anders, how can we get the Swedish politicians to send Gripens? Is there anything that can be said to them that will stop them from sitting on their hands? The latest news is that Sweden is sending Archers in 6 - 8 weeks. Which is good, but we should contribute so much more. It is in our own defense interest to help Ukraine win. Thanks for the video.
@@nian60 I honestly don't think sending Gripens would benefit Ukraine much. And I don't say so to criticize the Gripen, I think it's an awesome plane, and think it would have been great if my own country had bought it instead of the F35. However, IMHO it simply takes to long to train pilots to another plane, so it's a lot better getting them planes they're used to. But if Germany gives the green light to give Ukraine "big cats" here on the 20th this month, then it sure would be great if Sweden would offer them some. I know Poland has offered to send them 12-15 of their Leopards, as I recall it Spain has also offered to do it, and if countries like Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and of course Germany also send some, then togheter with the IFVs/light tanks and infantry vehicles, and artillery they are receiving it opens up the ability of full scale combined warfare. In regards to air I think they have better use of anti-air weapons. Just my humble opinion! And of course I don't mind!
@@gorillaguerillaDK Thanks. 🙂 But Ukraine will need fighter jets after the war too. Mordor will probably continue to be a threat for decades. So Ukraine will need new fighter jets anyway. The Gripen is cheap to run compared to other fighter jets. 😊
Hi Anders, As always - Great content. Thank you for taking your time to put together these very insightful videos. Can you please give us your view on the situation with Germany not willing to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine? I read that apparently Germany fears this would escalate the war significantly - to being even a war with NATO. What do you make of this? Perhaps Putin has given a direct warning to the West that sending tanks would be starting a war with Russia?
Whenever Anders releases a video I am sure to get a completely new insight into this war. Very unhappy to hear that we might see future analysis by him less frequent.
Could you make a video regarding the current tank debate? I would love it if you could cover some of these questions as so many uninformed people are giving their opinions Should they be sent to Ukraine? Is it what Ukraine needs right now or other armament would make more of a difference? There has been a lot of talk about possible escalation if thanks are sent but is that likely? If so, what would escalation look like? More me'n being drafted/sent to Ukraine or the use of other weapons?? Thanks in advance!!
Exactly! He is one of the great analyst of the Russio-Ukranian war! Great insights, with racionality and actual knowledge. In some countries there are 0 analyts like him. So obviously we need more content and not less from Anders :D
I agree. And his presentations are unbiased. He does not let his own opinion (even if he occasinally mentions them) twart his neutral analyses. I find Anders Puck Nielsen to one of the most decent and unbiased channels for information concerning Russia and their war against Ukraine.
Another great video with a solid analysis that you miss in main stream media with million-dollar budgets. I hope you find time to continue your youtube videos.
Great analysis. Your ending is chilly- that the Russian state is acting like a private army. As you mentioned, this perspective means that the war won’t stop easily, but also, it may not stop in the same normal ways as other wars have ended. Ukraine has no choice but to drive the invaders out, and inflict complete military victory.
I think Anders miss to highlight the point of Economics - war is expensive - and we are heading into economic downturn - the war needs to stay popular in Russia to fund it...
@@jenskruse1475 And Putins interrests are driven by factors such as his own imperialist ambitions and even more to appease the far-right in Russia who wants him to pursue their feverish wet dreams of Russian hegemony spanning across all if Eurasia.
Thank you for another great video! This is honestly a pretty bleak vision of the future, and unfortunately totally plausible. We have seen warlordisation of conflicts in many places like Afghanistan, Somalia etc. yet never has the specter of it been on a relatively advanced state with large industrial and military resources. We saw it in China a hundred years ago but it was a much less economically developed country. Russia is a multinational empire whether they admit it or pretend something else, I don't know if they can survive warlordisation in all honesty, the intensity of the war on Ukraine seems to already be applying pressure on the ethnically diverse territories as they are carrying the ever increasing costs. I would think the pressure becomes too much at some point and then they'll become ungovernable. Freezing the conflict is not a one-sided thing unless there is a terrible mismatch between the parties (like Russian aggression on Georgia), Ukraine and the West can always say 'no'.
I fear that the privatization of armies in Russia will, at some point, lead to civil war. As soon as Putin either dies or is replaced, these dogs will start fighting for power. They owe no alliegence to anyone, and they do not have any regard to the laws of Russia, and they have no morals. It is looking like a repeat of 1917 to me.
Anders, I want to say thank you for all of your great analysis over the last year. I personally found it tremendously helpful in understanding a war that for me popped up. I appreciate the time that you took, and the time away from your family to produce these.
Sad to hear that you'll be doing less posts due to other projects, your videos have been an integral cadence in understanding this war since a significant amount changes every few weeks, thank you!
Thank you for this great contribution, Anders. Kaldor’s New War Theory is interesting in the context of the Russian invasion. I wonder if this can change the way we think of Russian escalation. Following the theory it might not be in Putins and Prigozins interest to escalate too much, as this would possibly end the war quicker. Maybe we should not be afraid to send tanks and jets after all.
😃I'm sorry we will not see you as much Anders as your personality is warm, open and helpful. Your insight into privatising war is a surprise to me but makes sense for the players involved. It in turn shows evil continues to be pervasive and that makes me sad😢😢😢
Great point. Thanks for this. Is it big and scarry? No ))) my friend, welcome to Russia where I lived and worked for three years, in Omsk Siberia. Punch line: your excellent analysis today can be roughly translated into the break-up of the Russian Federation. News: Russia is not a country (its an oil well with nukes). Why? ...because of the culture, while friendship and family is particularly strong, there is NO sense of civil society. There is no sense of caring for strangers. There is no trust of government. And people generally pay no taxes. So you are simply seeing the predictable, and logical, lack of civil perspective in Russia.
Isn't this also why it will actually NOT break up? Because there are no socially active people and generally no one cares what's going on as long as they have enough food to survive?
@@VioletGiraffe Great question, have to define, "break up" and "stay together". So make-a-country-101, you need a deep wish to stand together, then comes taxes, government, social services, military, etc... I know the Russians of Omsk, Novisibirsk, St. Petersburg, Volgagrad, Samara, Kranodar and all over Buratia, pretty well. And one thing that they all have is pofigism, which means that if you are comfortable, the rest does not matter. They care about their closest friends and family (at best) and that is it. It comes from 1000 years of systemic disenfrachisement. So I will guess that they will not "stay together". But the individual republics do, individually, have small amounts of "civil society" or interest in "standing together".... (Chuvash, Bashkir, Burat, etc...)
@@thomasschwarz1973, thanks for the reply! I'm a Ukrainian from the russian-speaking part of the country, have had countless encounters with russians online, and I understand what you mean. I'm interested in your perspective on another topic. Pofigism is one thing, it's "I don't care if our army is killing ukrainians somewhere abroad as long as it doesn't concern me". But many russians are actively hostile, if you listen to them they are pretty much ready to fight the whole NATO, fight the western oppression etc. They are easy to hate things they don't understand. Do you have an idea why they are so hateful (which, I think, is one factor that makes them easy prey for the russian propaganda to direct wherever the government wants)?
@@VioletGiraffe right another familiar point, "den pobeda", so when Ruzzians aren't being pofigists they are being hyper-military. Great question, why? It's because of fear. You will notice that while Russia is a zabrosheni ugolochik (a garbage country) somehow they think other countries want to take it. The only country that wozld even touch that zabrosheni ugolochik is china who consistently invades the Siberian forest for timber. So that paranoia comes from two dynamics, 1 is a history of some real invasions like Mongolia and more recently Germany, and 2 the convenient strategy of keeping that fear alive to let the rulling pofigists control the slave-like pofigists. What country do you live in now? И да я говорю спокойно по-русски.
@@thomasschwarz1973, you're right, russians definitely have a hyper-inflated sense of self-importance mixed with paranoia, they think everything in the world is about them and everyone is against them. A very convenient narrative for the government, but I don't understand why they so easily and blindly believe things that obviously make no sense. P. S. I'm in Ukraine, although I had to relocate away from my home and can't wait to go back
Perhaps it was realizing that a 'forever war' was a desirable outcome for Russian warlords that is leading NATO states to send more assertive weaponry.
If Russia want the war less intensive and Ukraine still want to get everything that was taken back, then I think it is Ukraine that will dictate the intensety. That is if they will still get suffisient outside help.
Going to be interesting to see what happens when Ukraine pushes Russia out of all of its territories, including Crimea. What do they do, then? Do they keep shelling Ukrainian forces or launching missiles or shooting down aircraft? Unless they’re willing to accept defeat and a truce, Ukraine will have a lot of moral authority to defend themselves from attacks from Russian soil, which might get pretty scary for Russia, given that Ukraine will have access to weapons that will far outclass whatever scraps Russia will have left once they’ve been driven out.
Really interesting analysis. I’ve often felt (over the past few months) that Russia was going the way of North Korea - an autocratic, isolated pariah state. But from this angle, it seems more like it’s going the route of Afghanistan (at least during much of recent history) - a clusterf*ck of violently competitive and financially incentivized warlords functioning behind a barely-functioning visage of a traditional government.
Thank you for sharing your deep insight into all things Russian (and Ukrainian) with us! I always feel like I really learn something when watching your videos.
Anders, what could you possibly be doing that is more important than mentoring us with your wisdom?? Just joking of course. Always enjoy your calm, rational, logical approach to your videos. I look forward to your next one, hopefully sooner rather than later, thank you.
the flip side is crowdsourcing of war fighting! there's countless examples of civilian social media groups, NGOs, and even private companies facilitating equipment/funding to actors in this conflict, most of which are on the UA/western side. The crowdsourced input is probably vastly less than the private military groups expenditures for RU, i think i saw a number that Wagner was burning through 100M/month here, but the crowdsourced stuff is still a significant factor in this conflict.
Gangsters and murderers always had problems attracting funds via crowd sourcing. Not that they need to - they just steal them instead. So I guess its equal!
This is a fascinating analysis, Anders. Unfortunately though, not the good kind of fascinating. Thank you for sharing your high-level insight, as always.
No one has really given us an idea of the Wagner group. Mercinaries that are on the front line till they die, have very little reason to stay on the front line, unless there is some great furture reward. How much of the wagner group is now former prisoners? i know the warlords are making big bucks, but who else, prisioners are used as cannon fodder, but if you were a hire hand and left fighting for years... why, when the you know the russian army is as trash as it is?
I really appreciate the channel, but on this one I think you did a 180 in reasoning. I think it starts with the assumption that there was something in Russia's "state interests" in this war, ever. It's quite clearly driven by Putin's personal interest in doing something with Russia to transform it's geopolitical role. The war works against the interest of the Russian state and the people, and obviously was a much bigger gamble of his own clout than Putin ever realised. Furthermore, I think Putin's future is more at risk by continuing the war than ending it in a loss. Most of the people who support Putin support him, not his policies. Most Russians do not feel it's their place to debate policy, only back the leadership. If life turns south and things get bad, they may ask for new leadership, as they did in 1917 with the help of the army. If Russia didn't get involved in WW1, then the Czar would have survivied longer. And I think the use of mercenary forces recognises the reality that at some point, the Russian people will not tolerate a high casualty rate among nonprofessional soldiers. Joining Wagner as seen as a choice to put your life on the line for better pay. Hundreds of thousands on dead conscripts is a threat to private citizens and the secure life they were promised by Putin so long as they kept their noses out of his business. "Hiring" inmates wasn't done because it makes tactical sense, but because it makes political sense. I think you have to start over again in your reasoning and reconsider whether this was anyone other than Putin's war. Then I think you have to ask what are the interests of an electorate in a quasi-totalitarian state as well as the interests of other big actors beyond those with private armies. I doubt any of those folks benefit from a long war.
Valid point. Putin was playing a gamble, it went wrong and now it's spinning out of his hands. He is aware that he broke the social contract. Russian people would forgive him and the oligarchs their cronyism, stealing, bad economic situation and sanctions. But they expect him to maintain some level of order. They aren't going to forgive him when thousands of men will be returning home in black bags as cargo 200. And they won't be happy with mobilisations. Putin knows that this is the only thing that can really threaten his position. That's why Russian army is so keen in conscripting in ethnic areas, conscripts from Donbas (officially Ukrainians) and private contractors. Hardly anybody will be missing these soldiers in Russia. Russian army is too big and incompetent to deliver any results. That's where more flexible private contractors come into place. But using them is like double-edged sword. They can solve the problem with lack of soldiers but they can also overgrow into new power structure and threaten Putin or the integrity of the entire Russian Federation.
The role of Wagner in Ukraine mostly serves to highlight the weakness of the Russian state. Having an independent group introduces competition within the military and makes strategic planning difficult. Private companies do what they do everywhere: they cherry pick
One reason why Sweden came to dominate the Baltic sea and not Denmark was that the former had a real army while the latter just had mercenary rabble. The men did not know each other before the war in those mercenary units so the men did not have much trust and friendship for another. They had no peace time training. They had no long term experiences to draw upon like a military organisation which had one generation that were passing on knowledge and combat experience upon the next generation of soldiers and thus accumulating hundreds of years of combat experience which they passed onwards to new troops. Having permanent standing armies under control under governments thus outcompeted the mercenary forces. And from being equals and Denmark perhaps even better on the battlefield in the late 1500s, did things turn around and by the late 1600s did Sweden outclass Denmark on the battlefield. Sweden did get the best army in Europe. Swedens development is not unique however. Spain had a similiar development even before Sweden.
Wagner is paid by Putin and Russia. Putin is deciding them to critic his military and minister, to take the heat off himself. It's all elaborated propaganda. Putin has paramilitary like Wagner and the chechen Kadirov private army, allong the military and others too... because he needs power to be fractioned, and to check and balance between the fractions. So no single fraction can get much stronger. So no one can cause a coup and take Putin down. Not even his military. He is keeping many power players in constant power struggle, that is how he keeps his throne.
@@algot34 The Swedish empire in the 1600s had a population of about 2.5mm according to some sources. At the time, the population of England was about 4 to 5mm people, that of Netherlands was 1.5mm maybe - yet Netherlands was a major world commercial and military power at the time. It's not just what population you have, it's your ability to project it, your technology, your training, your esprit. etc. It's also what allies you have. France, meanwhile, was massively larger in population - more like 16mm. Yet Netherlands was at least as effective outside of Europe as France in terms of commerce, for instance, or in terms of projection of Dutch influence outside of Europe. Some countries "punch above their weight".
Mercenaries have been around a long time, but you are right to point out the insane corruption in the Russian state. The Minister of Defense having his own army is nuts.
We will see how Prigozhin would end up finally. IMHO killed, when he is not useful anymore. The same for Wagner group. Finally somebody would 'find out', that their existence and use is contradictory to the Russian legal system. Anyway, current Russia reminds me situation in China in 1920-30. Fall of empire, rise of warlords, feeble central governement and continous fighs till Japanese invaded. Interesting times ahead.
With some experience in Angola, Congo and Sudan, I see little difference between the way Putin acts today and those ‘never ending wars’ played out across Africa. The unusual aspect is that we’re talking about Russia here. Who would have imagined that Russia would be on its knees, in so many ways and Putin would become a War Lord himself. By the way, it didn’t end well in Africa and it’s not going to end well for what will become an ‘insignificant’ Putin.
Thank you for elucidating so well what has been rattling around in my mind fro a couple of months. This really is a new sort of war and is very liable to become a semi-permanent factor in global dynamics.
Is it really that new if the US did it for 20 odd years in Iraq and Afghanistan. I like this guys content but we have a very close example in recent history that he doesn't even bother discussing, analysing the parallels or using it as a guide to where the war could go. Huge blind spot imo.
Yep, a war with so many 'firsts', and now against a nuke superpower fought by warlords... pretty much the definition of a 'dysfunctional' government. BTW, Wagner's Prigozhin is now said to have teamed up with Chechen leader Kadyrov w/ his own 'army' in an effort to oust Defense Minister Shoigu.... stay tuned!
So rather like, North and South Korea….that would mean Russia would become a long-term pariah…a waste land of spiraling downward decay. All so a few can stay in power at the expense of the populace’s suffering.
Wagner to me is like one of the post-WWI Freikorps. And warlords is the right term. The Russian government is in a state of disintegration. Chinese warlords in the 1930s also come to mind.
"Warlordisation" is also an opportunity because Warlords are never allies, only opportunists. So maybe we see "warlordism" within russia itself. And then the collapse of russia is near. TL;DR Warlordism is the biggest threat to a united russian state itself.
Considering that Russia has become a double-state, it is clear that it is in the interest of the inner-state that the war prolongs. Like we never seen this before! This is exactly described in Orwell's book 1984.
Aren't those private armies a danger for the regime? I wouldn't sleep well if I was the ruler of a country where my political rivals could make deals with private armies. This is why Middle Age kings were overthrown so easily.
I'm subscribed with notifications on since the first episode I viewed Anders. Thanks for your unique insights and analysis. I hope your projects go well and you'll be able to continue here soon; otherwise too many of us will lose the value of your great experience and insights.
@@andrzejbarcelonafrlk6416 i felt to much enthusiasm in bc guy's comment, like he don't understand that real people are dying. You're doing a great job, but there is real life and death behind the numbers. Anyway thank you
@@Witalii.Q Thank you for your reply. I don't see it this way. As long as we outside Ukraine aren't harmed directly, I am and I think many are sympathetic and realize ( in some extent at least) the suffering of real people.
@@andrzejbarcelonafrlk6416 lucky me i'm in ua) anyway maybe i was overreacting. i hope that people who interested in wars in general are aware that it is mostly pain, fear and death. well, sorry for inconveniece, didn't want to bother
Question: if you fight a private military company do they have the Geneva convention rights as regular soldiers have? Or they are considered foreign criminals?
I think that, like in almost all authoritarian states, the personal interests of the leading figures and the interests of the state are both heavily conflated and heavily intermingled. What I mean by that is that autocracies tend towards considering the personal interests of the ruler as synonymous with the interest of the state, even when a less biased analysis would absolutely disagree. This has been the case since forever. For example, in medieval and Renaissance europe, the personal prestige and reputation of the ruler was usually considered synonymous with the wellbeing of the country. Rulers could thus start ruinous wars that completely exhausted and bankrupted their countries, and still declare success, because the ruler gained so much glory. Of course, this was always intermingled with trade, dynastics, faith and so on, but surprisingly often personal ego-boosting seems to have played a large role. Then there is the way in which rulers tend to intermingle their own interests in state ones, traditionally by giving themselves monopolies or preferential treatment in strategic trade or industries. I am very far from an expert, byt both of these patterns seem to run like a red line throughout putins russia. For example, a lot of russian foreign policy over the past twenty years has seemed to have, at least as a partial goal, to make putin himself look or feel good. And we know for a fact that he's at the top of the corruption pyramid, meaning his personal interests are everywhere, even if indirectly and through allies, in the state apparatus.
Interesting thinking! In reality in won't change anything in this war, but one thing - motivation of russian troops. For a while, regular russian army soldiers don't quite understand what are they fighting for. Yes, they're offered big salaries by gov, but because they had no choice but go to war (by lies, threats, or just propaganda) they're not highly motivated to fight. In contrary, people in private russian armies made their choice consciously, and money is their driving force. So by praising private armies, in fact, putin solves one of the key problems of russian army - morale.
Thank you for your analysis - my go-to creators regarding the war in Ukraine is you and Perun - for different reasons, as you provide different kinds of analysis
Anders, thanks - great analysis. In your destinction between old and new war its worth considering the contribution by David Kilkullen and his theory on competing control systems. That would broaden your public - private aspect, to the recognition that modern wars can be driven by a range of warlords showcasing their forces in an arena where there is a deeply rooted purpose - push the rules of the game until the most effective control system takes over. Just a thought. Cheers.
I’ve been wondering whether it is in the interest of the western Allies of Ukraine to end the war. A continuing war means a lot of business for the military-industrial actors, good publicity for their equipment, impoverishes Russia and reduces threats to others, while a victory for Russia could mean disintegration of Russia, and could mean a real danger of nuclear war. So if both sides would have an interest to continue the war, the picture for the Ukrainian people is bleak indeed. I hope I’m incorrect.
The West's tactic is to slowly bleed Mordor to death. Which is why we are only sending enough for Ukraine to stay alive, instead of helping out properly. (I don't agree with this tactic. I think we should give Ukraine everything they need to kick the orcs out now).
More ground troops will not do anything in modern war, it need's to be air, ground and sea, together not just troops and artillery, they have yet to send the latest drone technology to Ukraine, Russia is far behind in modern technology and cannot produce modern micro chips in 2023?
The Nazi German SS could be called a private actor, it had its own slave-worker based income, armament R&D and combat troops. Then there is US Blackwater/Constellis, although they are not used in offensive operations. Or Wallenstein in the 30 Years War. So the concept is not entirely new in the West.
Hmmm. Sustainable War. Sounds Lucreative. Constant low-grade conflict, keeping population down and employment and interaction with the economy high. Peachy...
Excellent video Anders and it correlates with Russia's weak casus belli and their lack of consistency in their 'selling' of the war to the international community. I'd posit that the privatisation of the war would not have been as swift, had it not been for that Clausewitzean observation. Also, Putin seems to adopt the same 'divide and conquer' approach that Hitler maintained regarding the Heer and the SS. We all know how that panned out. Finally, on the matter of actualising abstract defeat (that is, defeat in the absence of a direct threat to the person), it may very well be that the blow had already been delivered to Putin, but that he's not yet had the opportunity to process that to the fullness of its implications. Whichever way, he must be feeling the pinch right now and hoping for the intensity to subside before he runs into trouble. Therefore, I think the next round of mobilisation is a sign of desperation - a last roll of the die, and I wonder if it won't prove to be 'a bridge too far' anyway.
The most worrying aspect: This concept of war is not even particularly "new". See for example the 30 years war, the 100 years war or the end of the Western Roman Empire.
Wouldn't that be somehow similar to the relation between the Wehrmacht, the SS (Himmler) and the Luftwaffe (Göring)? Himmler and Göring had their private armies and were rivals and battling for influence and the Führer's "love".
Private armies are nothing new. In the west mercenary armies wereused by state and religeous actors throughout the Middle Ages. In the 11th century, a Norman, Robert Guicard led a private army into Southern Italy and ended up fighting Lombards, Byzantines, the Pope and Saracens, with his sons founding powerful kinkdoms in Scicily and southern Italy. Their conquests were driven by controlling trade and acquiring assets. Not unlike Pregosian.
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Another aspect for an endless war in Ukraine may be that with unsettled territory issues Ukrainy may not join NATO. This means that if Ukraine should ever been able to fully be part of the "western world" (EU as well as NATO) Russia must be thrown out of Ukraine, including Crimea as well as Donbass. This must be the ultimate goal of all western support during and after this war.
The ultimate goal is denuclearisation of russia. Without it russia won't be a threat to the west
Some really interesting points you make Anders. Thank you for taking the time to make this video, and hopefully we wont have to wait too long on the next one!
Finally, I've been waiting for a new video to drop.
Thank you so much for once again sharing your insight.
The perspective of someone with your experience is very valuable to all of us who wanna keep up with what is happening.
And this video is about a topic I'm very curious about.
Tak for at du gider at tage dig tid til at dele din viden/indsigt med os Anders, sætter virkelig stor pris på det....
@Anders, how can we get the Swedish politicians to send Gripens? Is there anything that can be said to them that will stop them from sitting on their hands? The latest news is that Sweden is sending Archers in 6 - 8 weeks. Which is good, but we should contribute so much more. It is in our own defense interest to help Ukraine win. Thanks for the video.
Sorry, but the orcs are getting my comments shadowbanned so I'm "borrowing" your comment to post my comment. I hope you don't mind. 🙂
@@nian60
I honestly don't think sending Gripens would benefit Ukraine much.
And I don't say so to criticize the Gripen, I think it's an awesome plane, and think it would have been great if my own country had bought it instead of the F35.
However, IMHO it simply takes to long to train pilots to another plane, so it's a lot better getting them planes they're used to.
But if Germany gives the green light to give Ukraine "big cats" here on the 20th this month, then it sure would be great if Sweden would offer them some.
I know Poland has offered to send them 12-15 of their Leopards, as I recall it Spain has also offered to do it, and if countries like Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and of course Germany also send some, then togheter with the IFVs/light tanks and infantry vehicles, and artillery they are receiving it opens up the ability of full scale combined warfare.
In regards to air I think they have better use of anti-air weapons.
Just my humble opinion!
And of course I don't mind!
@@gorillaguerillaDK Thanks. 🙂 But Ukraine will need fighter jets after the war too. Mordor will probably continue to be a threat for decades. So Ukraine will need new fighter jets anyway. The Gripen is cheap to run compared to other fighter jets. 😊
@@gorillaguerillaDK Yes, Sweden also has some Leopard 2's. 🙂 If it was up to me we would send all our tanks to Ukraine.
Hi Anders,
As always - Great content. Thank you for taking your time to put together these very insightful videos.
Can you please give us your view on the situation with Germany not willing to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine? I read that apparently Germany fears this would escalate the war significantly - to being even a war with NATO. What do you make of this? Perhaps Putin has given a direct warning to the West that sending tanks would be starting a war with Russia?
Whenever Anders releases a video I am sure to get a completely new insight into this war. Very unhappy to hear that we might see future analysis by him less frequent.
Could you make a video regarding the current tank debate? I would love it if you could cover some of these questions as so many uninformed people are giving their opinions
Should they be sent to Ukraine? Is it what Ukraine needs right now or other armament would make more of a difference?
There has been a lot of talk about possible escalation if thanks are sent but is that likely? If so, what would escalation look like? More me'n being drafted/sent to Ukraine or the use of other weapons??
Thanks in advance!!
Mr. Nielsen's uploads are always a joy to see in my feed. Doubly so, when they cover a media blindspot.
He smiles so playfully! Such a nice chap!
Du ydmyger dækningen på DR med dine egne videoer. Bare fortsæt - og mange tak.
Sorry to hear you will post less frequently. I find your videos, theories and insights super interesting and informative!
Exactly! He is one of the great analyst of the Russio-Ukranian war! Great insights, with racionality and actual knowledge. In some countries there are 0 analyts like him. So obviously we need more content and not less from Anders :D
I agree. And his presentations are unbiased. He does not let his own opinion (even if he occasinally mentions them) twart his neutral analyses. I find Anders Puck Nielsen to one of the most decent and unbiased channels for information concerning Russia and their war against Ukraine.
Another great video with a solid analysis that you miss in main stream media with million-dollar budgets. I hope you find time to continue your youtube videos.
Great analysis. Your ending is chilly- that the Russian state is acting like a private army. As you mentioned, this perspective means that the war won’t stop easily, but also, it may not stop in the same normal ways as other wars have ended.
Ukraine has no choice but to drive the invaders out, and inflict complete military victory.
The thing is the war was never about any thing Else, then the interest of Putin, but there was a narative.
I think Anders miss to highlight the point of Economics - war is expensive - and we are heading into economic downturn - the war needs to stay popular in Russia to fund it...
@@jungtarcph
The private "armies" are self financed.
Mines in Africa, assistance to various regimes, and other sources of income...
@@gorillaguerillaDK It is still expensive. Don't know the exact financials but war is really expensive
@@jenskruse1475
And Putins interrests are driven by factors such as his own imperialist ambitions and even more to appease the far-right in Russia who wants him to pursue their feverish wet dreams of Russian hegemony spanning across all if Eurasia.
Thank you for another great video! This is honestly a pretty bleak vision of the future, and unfortunately totally plausible. We have seen warlordisation of conflicts in many places like Afghanistan, Somalia etc. yet never has the specter of it been on a relatively advanced state with large industrial and military resources. We saw it in China a hundred years ago but it was a much less economically developed country. Russia is a multinational empire whether they admit it or pretend something else, I don't know if they can survive warlordisation in all honesty, the intensity of the war on Ukraine seems to already be applying pressure on the ethnically diverse territories as they are carrying the ever increasing costs. I would think the pressure becomes too much at some point and then they'll become ungovernable. Freezing the conflict is not a one-sided thing unless there is a terrible mismatch between the parties (like Russian aggression on Georgia), Ukraine and the West can always say 'no'.
Ukraine will prevail!!! 🇺🇦
I fear that the privatization of armies in Russia will, at some point, lead to civil war. As soon as Putin either dies or is replaced, these dogs will start fighting for power. They owe no alliegence to anyone, and they do not have any regard to the laws of Russia, and they have no morals. It is looking like a repeat of 1917 to me.
Not to mention that private companies need to be paid. Putin's resources aren't unlimited.
I think rebellion in multiple Russian states might be the one that stops the war. Then the resources must be brought home.
@@drrodopszin either that, or a huge meteorite that will send the world into a permanent winter
Anders tak til Danmark for at sende de 19 Caesar artillery Nu kan jeg være stolt af mit land igen
Anders, I want to say thank you for all of your great analysis over the last year. I personally found it tremendously helpful in understanding a war that for me popped up. I appreciate the time that you took, and the time away from your family to produce these.
“The war become it’s own purpose.”
That’s the concept big boss started Militaires Sans Frontière on.
Thanks! Very informative.
Putin’s caterer would have to go back to serving creme puffs and finger foods if peace broke out. Not nearly as lucrative.
Sad to hear that you'll be doing less posts due to other projects, your videos have been an integral cadence in understanding this war since a significant amount changes every few weeks, thank you!
Thank you Anders for this interesting analysis. 🇺🇦💪🇺🇦🇬🇧
Thank you for this great contribution, Anders. Kaldor’s New War Theory is interesting in the context of the Russian invasion. I wonder if this can change the way we think of Russian escalation. Following the theory it might not be in Putins and Prigozins interest to escalate too much, as this would possibly end the war quicker. Maybe we should not be afraid to send tanks and jets after all.
😃I'm sorry we will not see you as much Anders as your personality is warm, open and helpful. Your insight into privatising war is a surprise to me but makes sense for the players involved. It in turn shows evil continues to be pervasive and that makes me sad😢😢😢
Sorry to hear we'll be hearing less from you! Love your perspectives...
Great point. Thanks for this. Is it big and scarry? No ))) my friend, welcome to Russia where I lived and worked for three years, in Omsk Siberia. Punch line: your excellent analysis today can be roughly translated into the break-up of the Russian Federation. News: Russia is not a country (its an oil well with nukes). Why? ...because of the culture, while friendship and family is particularly strong, there is NO sense of civil society. There is no sense of caring for strangers. There is no trust of government. And people generally pay no taxes. So you are simply seeing the predictable, and logical, lack of civil perspective in Russia.
Isn't this also why it will actually NOT break up? Because there are no socially active people and generally no one cares what's going on as long as they have enough food to survive?
@@VioletGiraffe Great question, have to define, "break up" and "stay together". So make-a-country-101, you need a deep wish to stand together, then comes taxes, government, social services, military, etc... I know the Russians of Omsk, Novisibirsk, St. Petersburg, Volgagrad, Samara, Kranodar and all over Buratia, pretty well. And one thing that they all have is pofigism, which means that if you are comfortable, the rest does not matter. They care about their closest friends and family (at best) and that is it. It comes from 1000 years of systemic disenfrachisement. So I will guess that they will not "stay together". But the individual republics do, individually, have small amounts of "civil society" or interest in "standing together".... (Chuvash, Bashkir, Burat, etc...)
@@thomasschwarz1973, thanks for the reply! I'm a Ukrainian from the russian-speaking part of the country, have had countless encounters with russians online, and I understand what you mean. I'm interested in your perspective on another topic. Pofigism is one thing, it's "I don't care if our army is killing ukrainians somewhere abroad as long as it doesn't concern me". But many russians are actively hostile, if you listen to them they are pretty much ready to fight the whole NATO, fight the western oppression etc. They are easy to hate things they don't understand. Do you have an idea why they are so hateful (which, I think, is one factor that makes them easy prey for the russian propaganda to direct wherever the government wants)?
@@VioletGiraffe right another familiar point, "den pobeda", so when Ruzzians aren't being pofigists they are being hyper-military. Great question, why? It's because of fear. You will notice that while Russia is a zabrosheni ugolochik (a garbage country) somehow they think other countries want to take it. The only country that wozld even touch that zabrosheni ugolochik is china who consistently invades the Siberian forest for timber. So that paranoia comes from two dynamics, 1 is a history of some real invasions like Mongolia and more recently Germany, and 2 the convenient strategy of keeping that fear alive to let the rulling pofigists control the slave-like pofigists. What country do you live in now? И да я говорю спокойно по-русски.
@@thomasschwarz1973, you're right, russians definitely have a hyper-inflated sense of self-importance mixed with paranoia, they think everything in the world is about them and everyone is against them. A very convenient narrative for the government, but I don't understand why they so easily and blindly believe things that obviously make no sense.
P. S. I'm in Ukraine, although I had to relocate away from my home and can't wait to go back
The irony of Soledar's "salt mine" and private paid armies is not lost.
Perhaps it was realizing that a 'forever war' was a desirable outcome for Russian warlords that is leading NATO states to send more assertive weaponry.
Excellent and thought provoking analysis as always. Thanks for you time, efforts, and expertise.
If Russia want the war less intensive and Ukraine still want to get everything that was taken back, then I think it is Ukraine that will dictate the intensety. That is if they will still get suffisient outside help.
Going to be interesting to see what happens when Ukraine pushes Russia out of all of its territories, including Crimea. What do they do, then? Do they keep shelling Ukrainian forces or launching missiles or shooting down aircraft? Unless they’re willing to accept defeat and a truce, Ukraine will have a lot of moral authority to defend themselves from attacks from
Russian soil, which might get pretty scary for Russia, given that Ukraine will have access to weapons that will far outclass whatever scraps Russia will have left once they’ve been driven out.
Really interesting analysis. I’ve often felt (over the past few months) that Russia was going the way of North Korea - an autocratic, isolated pariah state. But from this angle, it seems more like it’s going the route of Afghanistan (at least during much of recent history) - a clusterf*ck of violently competitive and financially incentivized warlords functioning behind a barely-functioning visage of a traditional government.
Thank you for sharing your deep insight into all things Russian (and Ukrainian) with us! I always feel like I really learn something when watching your videos.
Another thought provoking video. Thank you for taking the time to make them and good luck with your other projects..
Iraqis and afgans: Hey! I've seen this one before.
Brilliant perspective - super relevant and NOT just interesting. You rock!
Anders, what could you possibly be doing that is more important than mentoring us with your wisdom?? Just joking of course. Always enjoy your calm, rational, logical approach to your videos. I look forward to your next one, hopefully sooner rather than later, thank you.
Since Anders works for the Danish military I hope it has something to do with Europe ramping up support for Ukraine. Fingers crossed.
Thanks for your input, very interesting, we will miss your videos..
Your analyses are clear and eye-opening. It's no surprise that your time is in demand.
Thank you so much for your knowledge and insight into this conflict, hope you keep posting videos.
the flip side is crowdsourcing of war fighting! there's countless examples of civilian social media groups, NGOs, and even private companies facilitating equipment/funding to actors in this conflict, most of which are on the UA/western side. The crowdsourced input is probably vastly less than the private military groups expenditures for RU, i think i saw a number that Wagner was burning through 100M/month here, but the crowdsourced stuff is still a significant factor in this conflict.
A crowd-sourced paramilitary group... now _that's_ a scary thought!
Gangsters and murderers always had problems attracting funds via crowd sourcing. Not that they need to - they just steal them instead. So I guess its equal!
This is a fascinating analysis, Anders. Unfortunately though, not the good kind of fascinating. Thank you for sharing your high-level insight, as always.
No one has really given us an idea of the Wagner group. Mercinaries that are on the front line till they die, have very little reason to stay on the front line, unless there is some great furture reward. How much of the wagner group is now former prisoners? i know the warlords are making big bucks, but who else, prisioners are used as cannon fodder, but if you were a hire hand and left fighting for years... why, when the you know the russian army is as trash as it is?
I really appreciate the channel, but on this one I think you did a 180 in reasoning. I think it starts with the assumption that there was something in Russia's "state interests" in this war, ever. It's quite clearly driven by Putin's personal interest in doing something with Russia to transform it's geopolitical role. The war works against the interest of the Russian state and the people, and obviously was a much bigger gamble of his own clout than Putin ever realised.
Furthermore, I think Putin's future is more at risk by continuing the war than ending it in a loss. Most of the people who support Putin support him, not his policies. Most Russians do not feel it's their place to debate policy, only back the leadership. If life turns south and things get bad, they may ask for new leadership, as they did in 1917 with the help of the army. If Russia didn't get involved in WW1, then the Czar would have survivied longer.
And I think the use of mercenary forces recognises the reality that at some point, the Russian people will not tolerate a high casualty rate among nonprofessional soldiers. Joining Wagner as seen as a choice to put your life on the line for better pay. Hundreds of thousands on dead conscripts is a threat to private citizens and the secure life they were promised by Putin so long as they kept their noses out of his business. "Hiring" inmates wasn't done because it makes tactical sense, but because it makes political sense.
I think you have to start over again in your reasoning and reconsider whether this was anyone other than Putin's war. Then I think you have to ask what are the interests of an electorate in a quasi-totalitarian state as well as the interests of other big actors beyond those with private armies. I doubt any of those folks benefit from a long war.
For me as a Russian your comment makes a lot of sense, I really appreciate it.
Valid point. Putin was playing a gamble, it went wrong and now it's spinning out of his hands. He is aware that he broke the social contract. Russian people would forgive him and the oligarchs their cronyism, stealing, bad economic situation and sanctions. But they expect him to maintain some level of order. They aren't going to forgive him when thousands of men will be returning home in black bags as cargo 200. And they won't be happy with mobilisations. Putin knows that this is the only thing that can really threaten his position. That's why Russian army is so keen in conscripting in ethnic areas, conscripts from Donbas (officially Ukrainians) and private contractors. Hardly anybody will be missing these soldiers in Russia.
Russian army is too big and incompetent to deliver any results. That's where more flexible private contractors come into place. But using them is like double-edged sword. They can solve the problem with lack of soldiers but they can also overgrow into new power structure and threaten Putin or the integrity of the entire Russian Federation.
Thank you, sir. That was an interesting way to turn the box 90 degrees and consider something new.
Lycka till med projekten. Kommer att sakna dina analyser som jag uppskattat väldigt mycket.
The role of Wagner in Ukraine mostly serves to highlight the weakness of the Russian state. Having an independent group introduces competition within the military and makes strategic planning difficult. Private companies do what they do everywhere: they cherry pick
One reason why Sweden came to dominate the Baltic sea and not Denmark was that the former had a real army while the latter just had mercenary rabble. The men did not know each other before the war in those mercenary units so the men did not have much trust and friendship for another. They had no peace time training. They had no long term experiences to draw upon like a military organisation which had one generation that were passing on knowledge and combat experience upon the next generation of soldiers and thus accumulating hundreds of years of combat experience which they passed onwards to new troops.
Having permanent standing armies under control under governments thus outcompeted the mercenary forces. And from being equals and Denmark perhaps even better on the battlefield in the late 1500s, did things turn around and by the late 1600s did Sweden outclass Denmark on the battlefield. Sweden did get the best army in Europe.
Swedens development is not unique however. Spain had a similiar development even before Sweden.
@@nattygsbord How could Sweden have such a good army when its population at the time was so small?
Wagner is paid by Putin and Russia. Putin is deciding them to critic his military and minister, to take the heat off himself. It's all elaborated propaganda. Putin has paramilitary like Wagner and the chechen Kadirov private army, allong the military and others too... because he needs power to be fractioned, and to check and balance between the fractions. So no single fraction can get much stronger. So no one can cause a coup and take Putin down. Not even his military. He is keeping many power players in constant power struggle, that is how he keeps his throne.
What makes Wagner independent, in your opinion?
@@algot34 The Swedish empire in the 1600s had a population of about 2.5mm according to some sources. At the time, the population of England was about 4 to 5mm people, that of Netherlands was 1.5mm maybe - yet Netherlands was a major world commercial and military power at the time. It's not just what population you have, it's your ability to project it, your technology, your training, your esprit. etc. It's also what allies you have.
France, meanwhile, was massively larger in population - more like 16mm. Yet Netherlands was at least as effective outside of Europe as France in terms of commerce, for instance, or in terms of projection of Dutch influence outside of Europe. Some countries "punch above their weight".
Fantastic and thoughtful! Too bad you won't be as frequent, but I hope you continue.
Mercenaries have been around a long time, but you are right to point out the insane corruption in the Russian state. The Minister of Defense having his own army is nuts.
Pity, that you will make fewer videos. Your analysis are just great.
We will see how Prigozhin would end up finally. IMHO killed, when he is not useful anymore. The same for Wagner group. Finally somebody would 'find out', that their existence and use is contradictory to the Russian legal system. Anyway, current Russia reminds me situation in China in 1920-30. Fall of empire, rise of warlords, feeble central governement and continous fighs till Japanese invaded. Interesting times ahead.
This is really interesting. This guy's video's usually are.
There is no Russian law, its Putin law, enforced by his private oligarchic military. Prigozhen is just one element. Same with Kadyrov.
Your analysis of the ongoing war is straight to the point and not relying on speculation or sensationalism. Very much appreciated!
With some experience in Angola, Congo and Sudan, I see little difference between the way Putin acts today and those ‘never ending wars’ played out across Africa. The unusual aspect is that we’re talking about Russia here. Who would have imagined that Russia would be on its knees, in so many ways and Putin would become a War Lord himself. By the way, it didn’t end well in Africa and it’s not going to end well for what will become an ‘insignificant’ Putin.
Always interesting perspectives, Anders. thank you for sharing!
Thank you for elucidating so well what has been rattling around in my mind fro a couple of months. This really is a new sort of war and is very liable to become a semi-permanent factor in global dynamics.
Is it really that new if the US did it for 20 odd years in Iraq and Afghanistan. I like this guys content but we have a very close example in recent history that he doesn't even bother discussing, analysing the parallels or using it as a guide to where the war could go. Huge blind spot imo.
Yep, a war with so many 'firsts', and now against a nuke superpower fought by warlords... pretty much the definition of a 'dysfunctional' government. BTW, Wagner's Prigozhin is now said to have teamed up with Chechen leader Kadyrov w/ his own 'army' in an effort to oust Defense Minister Shoigu.... stay tuned!
The war will be over this March when Ukraine marches over Moscow
So rather like, North and South Korea….that would mean Russia would become a long-term pariah…a waste land of spiraling downward decay. All so a few can stay in power at the expense of the populace’s suffering.
@@pohkeee and Ukraine will become a new superpower! Glory to Ukraine!!!
An interesting concept to think about, thanks for sharing your ideas about this conflict, keep up the good work.
Actually this is the OLD old type of war. Think of feudalism or the warlord periods of China.
I always learn from this scholar and we should appreciate him. Great presentation as usual. Thank you. RS. Canada
Wagner to me is like one of the post-WWI Freikorps. And warlords is the right term. The Russian government is in a state of disintegration. Chinese warlords in the 1930s also come to mind.
Thank you for making these videos, a different perspective but very incisive presentation. I look forward to seeing whenever you are able.
"Warlordisation" is also an opportunity because Warlords are never allies, only opportunists. So maybe we see "warlordism" within russia itself. And then the collapse of russia is near.
TL;DR Warlordism is the biggest threat to a united russian state itself.
"No nation has ever benefited from a long war." Sun-Tzu.
Considering that Russia has become a double-state, it is clear that it is in the interest of the inner-state that the war prolongs.
Like we never seen this before! This is exactly described in Orwell's book 1984.
but certain actor in the nation benefit a LOAD, the banking, the MIC
@@redemissarium Even they will feel the strains eventually. Especially in a high-casualty, large scale conventional war like this one.
Aren't those private armies a danger for the regime? I wouldn't sleep well if I was the ruler of a country where my political rivals could make deals with private armies. This is why Middle Age kings were overthrown so easily.
I'm subscribed with notifications on since the first episode I viewed Anders. Thanks for your unique insights and analysis. I hope your projects go well and you'll be able to continue here soon; otherwise too many of us will lose the value of your great experience and insights.
Yes. And the fact that behind this analysis stands hundred of thousands of death and millions of refugees add some spicy, doesn't it?
@@Witalii.Q What do you mean, please?
@@andrzejbarcelonafrlk6416 i felt to much enthusiasm in bc guy's comment, like he don't understand that real people are dying. You're doing a great job, but there is real life and death behind the numbers. Anyway thank you
@@Witalii.Q Thank you for your reply.
I don't see it this way. As long as we outside Ukraine aren't harmed directly, I am and I think many are sympathetic and realize ( in some extent at least) the suffering of real people.
@@andrzejbarcelonafrlk6416 lucky me i'm in ua) anyway maybe i was overreacting. i hope that people who interested in wars in general are aware that it is mostly pain, fear and death. well, sorry for inconveniece, didn't want to bother
So just this morning it seems that Surovikin was re-replaced by Gerasimov - any comments?
Hey.
I just want to say, I love your videos, and thanks for the uploads.
Question: if you fight a private military company do they have the Geneva convention rights as regular soldiers have? Or they are considered foreign criminals?
interesting perspective
I think that, like in almost all authoritarian states, the personal interests of the leading figures and the interests of the state are both heavily conflated and heavily intermingled.
What I mean by that is that autocracies tend towards considering the personal interests of the ruler as synonymous with the interest of the state, even when a less biased analysis would absolutely disagree.
This has been the case since forever. For example, in medieval and Renaissance europe, the personal prestige and reputation of the ruler was usually considered synonymous with the wellbeing of the country. Rulers could thus start ruinous wars that completely exhausted and bankrupted their countries, and still declare success, because the ruler gained so much glory. Of course, this was always intermingled with trade, dynastics, faith and so on, but surprisingly often personal ego-boosting seems to have played a large role.
Then there is the way in which rulers tend to intermingle their own interests in state ones, traditionally by giving themselves monopolies or preferential treatment in strategic trade or industries.
I am very far from an expert, byt both of these patterns seem to run like a red line throughout putins russia.
For example, a lot of russian foreign policy over the past twenty years has seemed to have, at least as a partial goal, to make putin himself look or feel good.
And we know for a fact that he's at the top of the corruption pyramid, meaning his personal interests are everywhere, even if indirectly and through allies, in the state apparatus.
Thanks, Anders for your insights and perspectives 👍
Interesting thinking! In reality in won't change anything in this war, but one thing - motivation of russian troops. For a while, regular russian army soldiers don't quite understand what are they fighting for. Yes, they're offered big salaries by gov, but because they had no choice but go to war (by lies, threats, or just propaganda) they're not highly motivated to fight. In contrary, people in private russian armies made their choice consciously, and money is their driving force. So by praising private armies, in fact, putin solves one of the key problems of russian army - morale.
Always illuminating and gives a sense of real understanding that is somewhat rare on TH-cam. Many thanks
Thank you for your analysis - my go-to creators regarding the war in Ukraine is you and Perun - for different reasons, as you provide different kinds of analysis
Another possibility is that Putin can loose and frame Prygozyn for the defeat.
Anders, Russia just replaced the general in charge of the war. Let us know what this means!
"New wars" sounds a lot like pre-state wars where private warlords (kings & lords) wage war...
Pigoshin is the head of the new Waffen SS. that is the role the Moscow fuhrer has for him, he is the new Himmler, you like?
Thank you Anders. Love your stuff. Well explained and thought provoking.
Sorry to hear that you'll post less frequently, best military analysis channel I know of
You don't have to look after prisoners and if they get killed, you don't have to pay them. Win win.
So, Anders, Russia is then relegating itself to a model akin to the Syrian case.
Anders, thanks - great analysis. In your destinction between old and new war its worth considering the contribution by David Kilkullen and his theory on competing control systems. That would broaden your public - private aspect, to the recognition that modern wars can be driven by a range of warlords showcasing their forces in an arena where there is a deeply rooted purpose - push the rules of the game until the most effective control system takes over. Just a thought. Cheers.
Thank you for your insight. I feel smarter after each video. Whatever you can produce is a gift.
I’ve been wondering whether it is in the interest of the western Allies of Ukraine to end the war. A continuing war means a lot of business for the military-industrial actors, good publicity for their equipment, impoverishes Russia and reduces threats to others, while a victory for Russia could mean disintegration of Russia, and could mean a real danger of nuclear war. So if both sides would have an interest to continue the war, the picture for the Ukrainian people is bleak indeed. I hope I’m incorrect.
I mean , LOSS of Russia.
The West's tactic is to slowly bleed Mordor to death. Which is why we are only sending enough for Ukraine to stay alive, instead of helping out properly. (I don't agree with this tactic. I think we should give Ukraine everything they need to kick the orcs out now).
Brilliant analysis and commentary. Keep up the awesome work.
These are some of the best videos about the war in Ukraine. Your insights are second to none. Thanks.
More ground troops will not do anything in modern war, it need's to be air, ground and sea, together not just troops and artillery, they have yet to send the latest drone technology to Ukraine, Russia is far behind in modern technology and cannot produce modern micro chips in 2023?
Anders, MANGE tak for dine grundige og gennemtænkte analyser af krigen.
Very interesting perspective, and also very disquieting. The next question is: how do we react to this development?
The Nazi German SS could be called a private actor, it had its own slave-worker based income, armament R&D and combat troops. Then there is US Blackwater/Constellis, although they are not used in offensive operations. Or Wallenstein in the 30 Years War. So the concept is not entirely new in the West.
Thanks so much, Anders. Pity you won't be able to record as many videos going forward. I have enjoyed every one of them so far. Stay safe!
Hmmm. Sustainable War. Sounds Lucreative. Constant low-grade conflict, keeping population down and employment and interaction with the economy high.
Peachy...
Great analysis Anders as always.
Excellent video Anders and it correlates with Russia's weak casus belli and their lack of consistency in their 'selling' of the war to the international community. I'd posit that the privatisation of the war would not have been as swift, had it not been for that Clausewitzean observation.
Also, Putin seems to adopt the same 'divide and conquer' approach that Hitler maintained regarding the Heer and the SS. We all know how that panned out.
Finally, on the matter of actualising abstract defeat (that is, defeat in the absence of a direct threat to the person), it may very well be that the blow had already been delivered to Putin, but that he's not yet had the opportunity to process that to the fullness of its implications. Whichever way, he must be feeling the pinch right now and hoping for the intensity to subside before he runs into trouble. Therefore, I think the next round of mobilisation is a sign of desperation - a last roll of the die, and I wonder if it won't prove to be 'a bridge too far' anyway.
Anders
Dette er grensesprengende !
This is mindblowing !!
Regards from Jens (once a student of the expanatory usefulnes of conflict theories)
The most worrying aspect: This concept of war is not even particularly "new". See for example the 30 years war, the 100 years war or the end of the Western Roman Empire.
Very insightful analysis. Thank you.
Wouldn't that be somehow similar to the relation between the Wehrmacht, the SS (Himmler) and the Luftwaffe (Göring)? Himmler and Göring had their private armies and were rivals and battling for influence and the Führer's "love".
Is Putin maybe boosting Wagner to counter a possible military coup?
Maybe the Wagner group will initiate a coup?
Always good to hear your thoughts dude.👍
Private armies are nothing new. In the west mercenary armies wereused by state and religeous actors throughout the Middle Ages. In the 11th century, a Norman, Robert Guicard led a private army into Southern Italy and ended up fighting Lombards, Byzantines, the Pope and Saracens, with his sons founding powerful kinkdoms in Scicily and southern Italy. Their conquests were driven by controlling trade and acquiring assets. Not unlike Pregosian.