India needs to be cold & calculating about power shifts in region : C Raja Mohan
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 ก.ย. 2024
- #ICSConversation
India's understanding of Asia has been romantic and idealist for far too long, but it is time to define its relationships not by principles like “strategic autonomy” or “non-alignment” but how best it can manage its own interests, said Dr C Raja Mohan, director of the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore (NUS) at a webinar organised by the Institute of Chinese Studies in which @ThePrintIndia is a media partner.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Connect with ThePrint
» Subscribe to ThePrint : bit.ly/Subscrib...
» Like us on Facebook: / theprintindia
» Tweet us on Twitter: / theprintindia
» Follow us on Instagram: / theprintindia
» Find us on LinkedIn : / theprint
» Subscribe to ThePrint on Telegram: t.me/ThePrintI...
One line summary: India become realist with the world order. Improve capacity to deliver something to the world.
The British Raj was the high point of India unity ( imposed by outside force, of course) since then India has not en able to unite all religious,, ethnic, and tribal groups to form a cohesive unit. On top of this, the average Indians still believe the old China at the time of British Raj and India was a better off under the colonial rule. This explains the current resentment and jealous attitude toward present day China.
@@stephenchan7398 The British Raj literally identified the various fault lines between different groups within India (based on caste, religion, etc.) & pitted them against each other. Also, the British Raj wasn't even a "cohesive unit", just a bunch of fully controlled & semi-autonomous kingdoms who let the Company & eventually the Crown collect the taxes... so wake up, dude.
@@stephenchan7398 And the Chinese rise was largely sponsored by US capital & tech investments in the '70s. So most Indians largely credit the US with it.
The Chinese don't enjoy a "jealousy arousing" image among average Indians.
That is why I support the current government's Atmanirbhar vision. India must grow it's weight economically first. The diplomacy with ASEAN and everyone else should come secondplace. Now is the time to unite ourselves and focus on strengthening India internally. So I, personally, wouldn't mind a little bit of oversight from the central government. I just wish there would be a strong enough opposition in the government to keep the ruling BJP in check, so they cannot erode the democratic core of our nation in the process.
Prof is so objective and clear. Respect! 👍
China shd be a mediator between India n Pakistan..
Jai hind 🇮🇳🙏
Mr are you getting ready to welcome china for that
Just skip to next vid guys.
He suggests not to have panga in South China Sea. His main thrust is to strengthen India economically & militarily before facing China. Few words & between the lines. Very knowledgeable.
If China is at the doorstep, whether India develops or not, militarily strong or not,it will have to fight China and stand its ground from here on. China is already here, militarily, strategically, economically, it has already surrounded India.
@@redatticus7606 C Raja Mohan suggests opposite to what you are saying. It is between you & Mohan Sahib !!
Then do you think we should ignore china s stand on Kashmir in favour of Pakistan and support it on Tibet who's even people are suffering from china s excesses and ask us for help
@@ghanvedsingh8946 I am not suggesting anything. I only pointed out what Raja Mohan is implying. My concern is to the extent of Kashmir which is a disputed territory under UNSC mandate and we hope China supports us on Kashmir. What India decides is a different matter.
@@ghanvedsingh8946 Tibetans in China are not suffering,only the ones in India are crying for help ! th-cam.com/video/vSWiZjKCj6U/w-d-xo.html
India must built its economic like China for balance of power in this region and not kneeling down to enemy's demands.
India leaders must really really focus on building it's economic like China in the next ten years otherwise India be left behind forever economically.
India must built world class infrastructure in all sectors to move it's economic faster like Singapore South Korea Japan or China.
modi said in auodhya bhya bin prit na hoye
What he says is right, giving a holistic perspective of the changing scenarios in this new world. Realignment is happening, china is aligning itself with iran, turkey,
this is wake up call to India. Non alignment is past, new alliances and strategic partnerships are the future. it has a lot of catching up to do in building domestic industrial base. Modi has shown great leadership, not all perfect, but worthy.
Would like your opinion on giving recognition officially to Tibet/Taiwan. Thank you..
China is already supporting Pakistan which supports insurgents in India with arms and finances. Therefore China is indirectly already doing this. It's also occupying our territory. Basically, they're already doing their worst and we don't really see them changing thier behaviour. so we don't really have much to lose.
@Yen Tao China already runs open markets to supply arms to insurgents now it is upto India to reciprocate in kind.
what will that symbolic gesture achieve? does India ever do something not symbolic?
@Yen Tao Tell uncle Xi, his time of downfall is coming.
@Yen Tao mr in that case get out of support to pak on Kashmir issue other wise we will be forced to support Tibet and all other non Chinese nationalities s lands grabbed by china
India declared war on TikTok and the war spoils are being enjoyed by US (Microsoft buying TikTok at discounted price) and UK (TikTop CEO office shifting to London).
My condolences to the bereaved family.
Ambassador Kant we all pray for you and your family.
Those aware of CRM's view might know he is critical of NAM(largely acknowledged to be India's ideological grandstanding) and considers it as India's missed opportunity. A/t him, The Post cold war multi-polar world order currently we are in, highlights the need of realignments, dealignments and multi-alignments. So he is all for pragmatism.
Wonderful,professor Raja Mohan.You have given a realistic picture of the ground situation and how India all along closed it's eyes to this reality.Even now the powers that be is telling the Nation that there is no occupation of our land on the borders by the Chinese.Are we still unrealistic? I.Venkateswarlu
A common man will find it difficult to follow the discussion. Very abstract,recondite in nature.
Tryto explain things in layman terms to add some sense to this discussion.
An inspiring scholar and practitioner of Realpolitik. Why does dear Jyoti continue with her quest to destroy every interview with her ridiculous questions? The poor woman has no comprehension of the nuances of geopolitical realities.
Inflection point in Asia's geopolitics
Broader structural changes:
1. Economics: Us-china relationship, integration underwriting global narratives- has it peak? Survived 1989 end of cold-war & tianmen; buried by Deng's "Southern tour" 1992: dramatic expansion of Us-china relationship. Deng: leftism biggest dangerous than rightism; boost to global capitalism- divided and defeated Asian Communism; Asian economic integration: japan, Korea, 4 tigers, supply chains to west; historical centrality of China in Asia's order.
New shift: trade war, digital coupling, reverse of globalisation; free-flow of capital, neo-lib eco, open borders, rules of governance, digi-tech collab- not for granted any longer.
2. Tied to US-China domestic politics: debate of benefits and future of globalisation; connected to domestic debates and how it impacts.
Eg: Dual circulation & America First
Political centralisation of Xi's regime: protracted warfare medium term & long term.
Us domestic- benefitted American capital but not American labour- more role of state and industrial policy; distribution policies. Ftas, visas, borders- losers in us globalisation; US business has shifted and has begun to take anti-china stand; Hollywood has gone quiet on China. Pew Research Centre: China's negative sentiment, deep state- fbi, Pentagon, etc;
Global issues: cc, ct, nuclear, free democratic parties platform- justification for continuing to engage with china; no honeymoon of last 4 decades.
3. Military security: China's engagement with US led military order vs India: seato, cento, 1945 Pak us agreement, every single arms sale critiqued right till 2005; China lived with American military presence on its border- Korea, japan, phillipines- 50s & 60s- contestation- korean war; Quemoy Matsu crisis; 70s & 80s- Soviet became the enemy- tilt- Kissinger's shift; Not a first principle issue of US military; Transformation and weaken US-military alliances: framework to counter USSR can it counter China after US was made Kosher, others in Asia joined, how does it stack-up against risen pre-eminent China in SCS, Alliances- presence of China as the principle economic partner, alignment-dealignment-realignmnet, korea-ind-indonesia-vietnam-thai, New issues like Hong Kong(delegitimising CCP secy general of CCP)- Tibet, Taiwan;
4. Role of institutions: Asean centrality was consequence of vacuum in Esia Asian - India opted out, JP was defanged, Ch engaged in domestic civil war, Asean pre 1990 regional integration & security and later for ARF & EAS for security, regional integration, economic integration- can Asean survive China? Bri & aiib & eco-pol influence, China central eco order rcep, fragmented regional order for institutions & geographies(continental China vs maritime us), Accommodation : nature, rules, power, legitimacy of China;
Problems with China vs Asian Nationalism- fragmentation of elites, eg: division bw phillipines dueterte & military; if there's one ideology that has survived is Asian Nationalism.
India:
What?
Be REALIST, we have been idealist and romantic, like middle of 19th century Europe & brutal realpolitik, 3 great initiatives- Asianist idea of inerwar period-tagore and forward, however, shifting greatpower dynamic broke indian elites with Bose vs British Indian army eg: Inc vs communists vs bose; Asian solidarity- Asian relations conference, look east 92, & rcep- 3 times failure; indian strength have grown relatively;
Bilateral deals- economic integration doubtful, WTO failing;
India:
What?
Be REALIST, we have been idealist and romantic, like middle of 19th century Europe & brutal realpolitik, 3 great initiatives- Asianist idea of inerwar period-tagore and forward, however, shifting greatpower dynamic broke indian elites with Bose vs British Indian army eg: Inc vs communists vs bose; Asian solidarity- Asian relations conference, look east 92, & rcep- 3 times failure; indian strength have grown relatively;
Bilateral deals- economic integration doubtful, WTO failing;
Friendship highway: 1960-61 Nepal, China card; sovereign nations can do exactly what it wants; Friendship Treaty with India 1950- China is stronger so bigger economic play to it- araniko highway friendship bridge friendship highway from kathmandu; August'71 Indo Soviet Friendship Treaty;
Us- 160 billion USD trade, 30 billion surplus; Obama's pivot and Trump's contestation- protracted playing out.
Maoists.....Bringing tribals totally out to the civilized cities...and close tribals inhabiting in the unreachable.areas with poor resources... They required to be educated for main stream living... ALSO civilized communities must sincerely accommodate them to adjust in the common social settings. PEOPLE HAVE TO FEEL BELONGED TO THE FAMILY...SOCIETY...OR NATION...TO BE UNITED
...PRODUCTIVE...AND ACCOUNTABLE...!!!
EVEN SMALL FISHES ARE COUNTED IN THE BOOK OF NARAYANAN...THE GOD OF GOODNESS...NARI-NARESWAR...!!!
" AHAM BRAHMASMI "
" TATHWAMASI ".
JustWhy wouldn't you answer the question about Dalai Lama. I think the Indian govt should have taken the Tibet issue to all kinds of forums including china a long time ago. They have failed there. Just say it. Nothing wrong with it
@Tyt Xlx neither the people of Kashmir nor the Northeast have suffered the way the People of Tibet have. So there is no comparison
Non deceptive stable relationship is better than some one who has no collaborative strength...and may change position when they are offered bribes.
Clue...SIMILARITIES....ONE IS VERY OLD ...ONE IS NEW ...BUT STRONG...WHO EVER COMES TO POWER...!!!
In 1962 China - India border war during which China n India was not engaging in any trade at all..Now, China has annual trade surplus with India for more than USD 50 billion..It set up factories n creating jobs in India..
China n India shd always be " bhai bhai "..
India-US trade can be very complementary & balanced unlike US-China trade which is non-complementary & one-sided making US vulnerable to Chinese blackmail. US has tariff-imposed 6800 Chinese goods which include home linen, apparel, leather goods, shoes, luggage, TVs, refrigerators, washing machines, electrical goods, auto parts, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, kitchen & table ware (Crockery, Cutlery), stationery, carpets, furniture etc. Many of these items can be easily exported by India to the US.
India-China trade like the US-China trade is also non complementary. China exports to India the same goods which India also produces but at cheaper rates harming Indian Industry while it imports raw materials like cotton, iron ore & agricultural items like rice, sugar, tea, soybeans & shrimps ...all low value items.
India can easily replace many Chinese goods for the US against imports of advanced defense equipment, medical equipment, crude oil etc balancing the two-way trade & helping each other's industry. Post-Covid multi-lateralism needs to be kicked out in favor of bilateral deals to save mutual jobs. Of China's $530Bn annual trade surplus, the US alone provides $375 filling 2/3 of the Communists' sinful dollar belly while India by providing $60Bn fills over 1/3 of its remaining part, yet rogue Chinese Communists have been visibly hostile to two of world's largest democracies & the two democracies have been foolishly providing economic muscle to China despite knowing their trade incompatibility. Trade must also be linked to mutual strategic synergy. China's bilateral global trade was just $500 Bn in 2001 while India's 2019 trade is 1120Bn. Chinese trade grew exponentially as Alibaba linked US & the Western importers to Chinese producers, the same can be done by Flipkart, Amazon, Jiomart etc in relation to Indian producers.
It’s seems Raja Mohan freely suggesting/criticizing when talking about democratic countries like India, US and Japan, but while talking about China getting nervous, seems he and host(from print) have some influence from China.
All world has united their nations beyond RELIGION.
But India its government & people are divided and seing each other as CHRISTIAN...MUSLIM...HINDU...SIKH ETC.
Also as NORTHERNER & SOUTHERNER...!!!
What you say is the problem created by foreign missionaries in after all why they need charistianity in India why Islam needs conversion in India can you go to Saudi Arabia and convert Muslims to Hinduism and in Italy England and France also same way dont give stupid excuses to Indians while in India
Professor Raja Mohan appears to be vague and non committal yet have contradictory understanding on how India should navigate herself in the complex regional geopolitics.
The USA did not lose out to the USSR, but looks like it's lost out to China. That's in the new Cold War.
Jackson, USA
Most countries don't like China and USA is also increasingly disliked by countries so that provides a golden opportunity for India to assume leadership position if it plays it cards well.
What about venomous article by Jyoti Yadav?
A progressive anti caste writer who enjoys yadav surname to enjoy privileges it comes with. She is cancerous, i can't even read her full articles. She reminds me of those american writers from huffington post, having problems with everything under the sun, each and everything is oppressing her, she can't breath in this brahminical patriarchy and benefits a lot from her victimhood narrative. Most of the print writers are like that. Worse thing is print tries to come across as centrist but most of their employees are rabid commies. Shivam vij, jyoti yadav,dilip mandal, rama lakshmi, ruhi tewari to name a few.
@@knightf8648 well written...U sumed up my feelings
india is doing like this since indepedence as the caption of this video is saying .Print give the opnion of young IFS officer they are more intelligent than these .......
I vividly remember my mother saying that doesn't try tobe very nice to everyone. Must try to understand the situation in depth. Then be benevolent ( badhiaakwa).
Very interesting . Power equations are changing and we need to respond accordingly. Not miss the bus.
If there is anyone who has read or heard about a man called Cho Ramasamy, the owner of the magazine 'Tuqhlaq'. His words on foreign relations. "China is the no.1 unfaithful neighbour. Foreign relations are not on ideology. It is just Enlightened self interest''
RCEP=globalisation- and there is a surge of nationalist reaction around the world against this concept. I support the stand against RCEP- we would not have been able to handle the fallout against farmers and SMEs. And the Nationalist debate in India has been settled- no one agrees to accept Chinese hegemony. The question remains- now what?
If we are to move china... We need to appear to be gaining from the conflict... Be it through economic action or diplomacy
4:52 Singapor ?It is an insult that you can't get a country's name right.
If China takes the Himalayas they will declare war & rule the entire region. Himalayas are strategic in terms of location & altitude like the Golan Heights in Israel where the whole of Damascus is visible.
@@akhileshr2240 But they can base in Nepal....which is not good. You can't have dragon breathing over your neck right next to capital.
Akhilesh R with the right assets based on the Himalayas India could wipe out China. It’s easy to target from top to bottom rather than bottom to top. Altitude advantage. This is what China fears.
Anil Nair because of mountains & altitude satellite tracing and locating is difficult. Also missile launching is also not detectable
Akhilesh R jets find it difficult to climb high altitudes with heavy payload ( bombs) but it’s easy to take down jets than on the ground. You can’t have a thrust when u have a mountain range. No freedom of navigation as in a flat ground. Got it ??
@@akhileshr2240 It's the railways connectivity through Nepal and potentially in future from Myanmar to Bay of Bengal will be a very dangerous for India's security.
Last I heard Mr Raja Mohan he was arguing that India should give up on its attitude of hedging it’s risks and join US more openly and confidently.
Correct except for the benefits from USA should outweigh the costs with China.
I think trade start only because of trade surplus
This is a class act.. C rajamohan any day... But yogendra yadav was too cheap to be handled...
These type of fellows knows everything?!
THE WORLD OWE TO INDIA...TO BE AT LEAST FAIR...!!!
Once again, superb Dr Rajamohan
Boring !
The interrupter is here as well
Beautiful.
One Word : Bakwas !
Thank you madam.
good programme
Jyoti is the sagarika ghosh of the print.
Mr Rajamohan remains like vintage wine - more expensive and delightful to hear every passing year ! He adds more of an strategic edge and depth to his insights ! Delighted to hear about his policy prescriptions - felt transported back to the JNU debates and flowing Hindu editorials
Economic model of west has failed in the world and taken over by Chinese we should therefore discover our own with out being dependent on out side help or trade if America and west are interested in us it should be reciprocal
C raja Mohan with new perspective regular follow him in Indian express..
Always giving negative by print.
The print is really spoiling us. Thank you for this
It's depend on your intellectual capability
As usual, Indians are slow to catch up to any reality. Modi is no exception. He wakes up to realize that cooperation not confrontation with China is the way forward, to Trump's rage. However, no power trusts the Indian politicians, who say one thing and do another. Under the guise of democracy they openly practice communalism and shun secularism, violating their own constitution.
A balanced over view of China-US relations with emphasis on regional nationalism and their relation with China ( which have no world domination plan, but development of all nations). I find it as a shift in Indian attitude in publishing this talk/lecture on Indian media, in place of the usual narrow minded contents. The speaker did some justice to China' regional role, emphasizing that decoupling policy of Trump/Pompeo is impossible, short of declaring a new world order, indicated by dependence on China's manufacturing on which everyone depends are coupled.
The speaker expects a change in US attitude if Biden wins and left leaning program is a success, it will be easier to return to normal coupling.
Obsession with Tibet is meaningless, for Dalai Lama claimed Tibetan are Chinese not Indian.
It seems you are a Bangladeshi.... being a small nation with no territorial issues it is fairly easy to hook up with China. They will invest in a few sectors and that will keep Bangladesh growing for a decade. The issue becomes different with semi industrialized countries like India. We will have to roll back a lot of our partially developed capabilities to accommodate China. So the investor supplier relationship you can have does not apply to us that easily. Plus China mixes hard politics of territorial claim (check Tajikistan and Kazakhastan) with trade. So India will keep its multilateral engagement with 200 countries emphasizing the ones it best fits its objectives.