The Wisdom (and Madness) of Crowds: Political Markets as Election Predictors!

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 21 พ.ย. 2024

ความคิดเห็น • 35

  • @parttimelarry
    @parttimelarry 15 วันที่ผ่านมา +7

    Thanks for discussing this topic! I find it fascinating

    • @yuvrajrathi6012
      @yuvrajrathi6012 10 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Ayo Larry! You two are among my favourite youtubers

  • @financialtrader3435
    @financialtrader3435 14 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Thanks Aswath. Love your lectures.

  • @viewpanupong5134
    @viewpanupong5134 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    great topic, thank you

  • @thomas6502
    @thomas6502 14 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Enjoyed this. Thank you!

  • @jaredtg2000
    @jaredtg2000 14 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Thank you.

  • @sabracnet
    @sabracnet 14 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Love it !!! Wisdom of crowds precisely !!! Thank-you for the validation professor !!!

  • @liliiarudenko
    @liliiarudenko 14 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Thank you for advise !

  • @superlumic
    @superlumic 15 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

    Always great to hear from you Professor.
    Prediction markets seem like a great tool where outcome can’t be influenced by the prediction itself, but I do wonder whether these prediction markets could also become self fulfilling prophecies especially for things like elections?
    The Pygmalion effect is a psychological phenomenon in which high expectations lead to improved performance in a given area and low expectations lead to worse performance- which makes me wonder if a candidate’s victory as predicted by these markets with high degree actually becomes the very reason these candidates win?

    • @clinttube
      @clinttube 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

      That's especially true for elections because of the time dimension which was not explored at all in this talk (which I liked to be clear). If your candidate has a perceived huge lead, the impetus for many people to vote is reduced. Likewise for the opposite scenario; however whichever candidate has the greater true support of voters who will come out regardless has an edge (good thing). If the ease of voting isn't constant between groups though (longer lines in cities/ballot harvesting operations/closer polling locations, etc.), that genuine support can be drowned out. Making it roughly as much effort to vote no matter where you are, and having voting last long enough that temporary bandwagon effects get revealed/cancelled out but not too long that information is missing for earliest voters, is key in my opinion.
      When it's an equity security, sure there is a time/price/cost dimension like anything else, but you aren't getting evaluated at a particular end point. The discrete time dimension for an election would seem to enhance the effect you're talking about.

  • @DilipDeo2105
    @DilipDeo2105 14 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Superb insight professor. 👍

  • @JuanPerez-fq6wx
    @JuanPerez-fq6wx 15 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Profesor, your content is always well received! Thank you for the many lessons

  • @AleydisRoscoe
    @AleydisRoscoe 14 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Thanks for the forecast! I have a quick question: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). How can I transfer them to Binance?

  • @tak-ada
    @tak-ada 14 วันที่ผ่านมา

    your the best!

  • @FullLengthInterstates
    @FullLengthInterstates 14 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Nothing can replace a constituency-wide, official poll with strong safeguards. Its why presidential elections should always be used as an opportunity to get the public's opinions on as many policies as possible, via direct ballot questions

  • @DF-ss5ep
    @DF-ss5ep 14 วันที่ผ่านมา

    The distinguishing feature of these markets is that they have large positive externalities. I will be interesting to find out (to me, at least, as I don't know the answer) if these platforms will be able to capture some of these externalities, perhaps through paywalls.

  • @ra3511
    @ra3511 11 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Thanks Prof! Could you provide an update on your views of crypto in light of the latest election result? And different potential ways investors can look at the purported "opportunity"?

  • @ankushkhazanchi4575
    @ankushkhazanchi4575 14 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Odd question I know, but why are there gridlines in the ppt background?!?!

  • @boccobadz
    @boccobadz 14 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Thank you. Polymarket is global, Kalshi is US only. The problem is biased media doing polling - you'll never get truthful answers from people your candidate and media call nazis (rant: left side uses lots of word they don't understand). Men lie, women lie, numbers don't - when in doubt, follow the money. The guy who make it big on Polymarket did his own polling via neighbour method and he got it right because people weren't afraid to say what they really thought (famous "asking for a friend"). Rotten Tomatoes and other sites like this also show how biased paid media shillers are vs people's reviews (not to mention sites removing unfavourable reviews, case of the newest Dragon Age game, which is horrible, yet all journalists left the same, positive reviews, Marvel movies after Endgame, etc).
    I think the biggest difference is that expert gets paid for shilling / pushing narrative (because these days everyone is biased one way or the other) before they give their opinion (so the final outcome doesn't matter to them), and market participants get paid only if they're right.

  • @perathambkk
    @perathambkk 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    I recall there were democracies in India before Greek and Roman. Some religious texts.

  • @akirasuzuki8378
    @akirasuzuki8378 14 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Will AI help to take out the emotion from investing and minimize the madness of crowd?

  • @nshs1234
    @nshs1234 14 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Statistically Kosher got me 🤣🤣

  • @louisaparker
    @louisaparker 14 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    Political prediction markets have existed for decades. It's not a new thing.

    • @orlando7448
      @orlando7448 14 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Someone on Team Trump wanted them to become widely adopted this election

  • @TakeBackTheMoralOrder
    @TakeBackTheMoralOrder 14 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    Professor, please tell me that you own a dog.

  • @manuvns
    @manuvns 14 วันที่ผ่านมา

    The flaw is in the electoral system , what about the Blue counties in red states ?

  • @rexiioper6920
    @rexiioper6920 14 วันที่ผ่านมา

    The professor definitely isn’t a high brow reader. 😅

  • @richhh7772
    @richhh7772 15 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    How to lie with statistics - darrell huff

  • @nwgverified
    @nwgverified 15 วันที่ผ่านมา

    It was pretty clear that trump was going to win from the polling but gauging voter turnout is always difficult.

  • @yeetboi268
    @yeetboi268 14 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    who you voted for?

    • @breakingthebox8942
      @breakingthebox8942 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Your mom

    • @yeetboi268
      @yeetboi268 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      @@breakingthebox8942 Kamala my mommy? Cool, thanks

  • @lizlemon9632
    @lizlemon9632 14 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Too much NOISE out there.