The issue with the "boomers have alot of wealth, it will drive spending" is not that it's not true, but it's based on 1) overpriced stocks, that can easily go away, 2) overpriced real estate and land that is not selling. I'm seeing out-of-touch boomers attempting to sell their homes at +40% 2019 prices, sit for months, and delist. Land has been sitting at ridiculous prices for years. These out of touch people want 25K for landlocked acres hours from anything, 100K for 5 acre lots with nothing set up to build in areas where it was 20K before covid. Yes it looks like wealth on paper, but if you cannot sell it, does it really count?
It will all sell at the prices they want... as soon as we print another $16 trillion dollars... bailing out the Boomers (who have stolen and squandered it ALL) yet again. 🙄
@@HaydonAshurstFamily I genuinely don't know! I grew up near NYC where an acre would go for close to 300K these ways which sort of makes sense. My comment though was talking more about the price appreciation than the actual price, and talking about land in the middle of nowhere, hours away. 5 acres of oak trees or grass in the middle of nowhere TBH doesn't look big/like much at all, and is sort of useless if it has zero utilities
Ed is bullish and has never not been bullish. There isnt a single day he would consider it a bad day to invest, ever. He has long term view not a market timer.
Boomers have taken it all: (1) Prosperity for them but destroyed for us through over regulation, licensing laws and all sorts of government created barriers to entry/competition for small business. (2) Social Security, Medicare, etc. taxed away for them leaving nothing for us. Even the SS Trust fund was tapped to spend on them leaving nothing for us. (3) Despite all that prosperity and wealth theft, they still saved virtually nothing, and thus continue to stay in the work force until death taking away opportunities for career advancement from younger generations. Then they call every generation after them "lazy, greedy, selfish". 🙄 So much narcissistic projection. There has likely never been a more selfish, arrogant and condescending generation than our Boomers. They ARE exactly what "tiny hats" are stereotyped to be.
Appreciate the bull argument to counterbalance the bears. Pretty skeptical of anyone who has a strong conviction about where the market is headed, however. Beyond the very short term this shit is impossible to predict.
Insiders making misleading statements about future earnings is very different than lying about actual current earnings. It's hard to pin a crime on an insider saying things about the future to keep the little people buying while they're selling out their positions.
Yardeni is the biggest perma bull on Wall Street. If an asteroid hit the NYSE, he'd say no worries, the market has priced in the destruction and will be at new highs within a few weeks! 😅
That sounds like some stories I've heard on CNBC since September/October LOL. I've been discussing this exact thing with people. Being from NYC. "If we fell into the ocean, CNBC would think it's bullish because now there will be a building boom!"
@@Yetified_Mayhem Fake argument. The bull/bear discussions are about the next few months to two years. No one is saying "stocks will be lower in 70 years'
"If an asteroid hit the NYSE, he'd say no worries" Corporations eventually return essentially all corporate profits via equity appreciation and dividends. I would guess that little if any of the S&P 500's component profits are tied to the well-being of a building in Manhattan. So that would simply demonstrate an understanding how equities are "fueled", rather than indicating a market sentiment.
He's a value investor and doesn't see any value for buying, and sells at the top *per company* for selling. Simple as that. If he's doing it because he's predicting a crash, he started far too early and has missed serious market rises. Better assumption is that 'it was always based on value'.
You're thinking too hard. It's really not that complicated, the stock market is just a mattress for people to stuff dollars into so they don't inflate away. Some people choose gold as the mattress, some people choose stocks, some choose crypto etc. As long as there is more money that needs somewhere to hide from inflation all asset prices will rise. Nothing to do with the actual economy or performance of companies per se. Same reason why no matter how many t bills they print foreigners still buy more, the dollar is just the best mattress around and the NYSE is a great place to stuff dollars. I mean fart coin was deemed a reasonable place to park $800 million dollars ffs. Even if only for a brief moment it was somewhere to put a dollar with at least the chance at a better fate than in a .02% yield savings account.
It's like fine art. People paying millions of dollars for paintings don't spend a million dollars worth of time and energy enjoying them, it's just better than holding a million pieces of currency that lose value over time.
You have the entire mainstream media to listen to people say "muh best economy ever," yes, dudes like this make the channel "balanced" but the media overall is very not balanced
@@RSI_50 HE wasn't a bear the entire time. But most or all of the growth since SPY 540 was fluff, not based on earnings. NO ONE predicted it. The most bullish bull predicted 560 by EOY. Which was an insane call because it was based on multiple expansion (i.e. fluff) not reality. You need to appreciate how ridiculous it is that that ended up being correct, not that someone looking at facts ended up being "wrong"
It may be because we're going through a series of inflationary recessions, instead of deflationary recessions. Same misery for the masses though... even though "number go up".
I’m confused. If Ed’s contention is that “consumer spending remains strong, supported by baby boomers’ $70 trillion in assets, which underpins demand and corporate earnings”, doesn’t the fact that the boomers have to sell assets in order to spend that money mean that there will be more selling and less buying pressure in the markets?
That's many perma bull channels these days, which should make people think. During the bottom of crashes (remember those, lol), bulls are making loads of solid factual points. At peaks, they run out of real things to say. Which is why they've brought out the term "animal spirits" out of the closet.
Adam, honestly, on AI, .. I live on $500/month budget (really well, imo) .. but all my media entertainment is free, i dont need or want to go out that mucj anymore, and I don't buy tangible 'things' anymore. if that's the norm, can you imagine the insane deflationary pressure from .. the 90s? someone on a inflstion adjusted budget of $500/month? they'd go insane with nothing to do
39:00 “it gets distributed evenly over time” 😱 Ed is basically a real life resident of The Capitol and thinks the Districts should be grateful for the scraps they’re given.
haha I'm from NYC and whenever I go into Manhattan for work I deal with people like CNBC guests and this guy and it's a relief to leave at the end of the day. They have no clue how 95% of people live. Which is freaking bizarre, since companies around us are laying off, not hiring, not replacing retiring people, giving small raises. Jokes on them, they think their wealth is liquid, but wait until they need to dump stocks or unload the extra house they think is worth 750K when the housing market is frozen
Ed makes some good points, and he has been right this time around. However, keep in mind that his historical performance of predicting recessions is not good. I was happy to see that Lance Roberts just pointed this out in his article last month "Yardeni And The Long History Of Prediction Problems". Ed is almost 75 and his financial situation is much different than the average working age adult who is dependent on their day job to live.
Tight credit spread lessens the chance of Black Swans, but it doesn't preclude a bear market due to "global liquidity" down cycle,--right? Maybe we should have a Yardeni-Howell debate? 🙂
I think I remember Ed Yardeni being one of the panelists on the old "Wall St. Week" with the late Louis Ruckheyser. I should have paid more attention to the bulls like him way back then. The modern stock market has proven to be almost exclusively for optimists. Sure, I've made money, but I would have made a lot more money. Live and learn.
Thank you, Adam for addressing that us poors need to participate in the AI and robotics boom that will be making some people unfathomably rich. If people don’t participate, it won’t work. Guest is wrong on this matter though. My opinion. People thought they voted for reduced prices and they still expect it without a massive crash.
Sorry Adam but given the long time you have for these interviews there can be many more incivise and specific questions and less time on broad philosophical deliberations that do not lead to meaningful investment decisions. E.g., Ed is expecting stronger earnings while Lance is expecting lower earnings. Beyond tax cuts, how will earnings increase in a world of deglobalization and tariffs, higher consumer debt and higher corporate debt cost? Where will AI revenue come from when none of the Mag-7 have as yet shown any AI revenue except from selling chips by Nvidia?
Lil Eddie made me laugh multiple times during this interview. He's lucky Biden was trying to buy an election. Stay bullish when the debt liquidity dries up.
Adam, surely you can accept and admit that Ed is completely out of touch and delusional. Not so much because he is very bullish. But because he totally ignored and dismissed the wealth gap issue that you brought up. If he is that ignorant, he sure doesn't belong on your show. Ever.
Equity appreciation works off of corporate profits, not wealth gaps. BTW the USA is middle-of-the-pack on that metric -- in the same part of the list as India and the PRC.
The markets are doing just fine, not the economy. I disagree with the people saying the fed shouldn't cut because rates are still way higher than economic output, so yes, the rates are still restrictive.
Does that guy even look at the economic data in detail? Does he even consider lag effects? He just seems like a permabull that was probably also the most bullish bull in 2000 and 2007
I've been making a lot of looses trying to make profit trading. I thought trading on a demo account is just like trading the real market. Can anyone help me out or at least advise me on what to do?
Trading on a demo account can definitely feel similar to the real market, but there are some differences. It's important to remember that trading involves risks and it's normal to face looses sometimes. One piece of advice is to start small and gradually increase your investments as you gain more experience and confidence. It might also be helpful to seek guidance from experienced traders or do some research on different trading strategies
I love this channel but I think you have lost your damn mind when you say there is no need to cut interest rates. This is such a no brainer, seeing how countless people were blindsided by apr rates going from 3% under trump to over 8% during biden. This creates a huge burden for many people. The economy is not "just fine".
Asset prices are the issue, not interest rates. Houses in my medium-cost-of-living area where salaries are 50K-75K went from 400K to 700K during covid and have been stuck up there with no sales since 2022. Not sure how that is an interest rate issue, even though the media loves that fake narrative. Same thing with cars.
There's a lot more to where interest rates should go than what might benefit one particular group (e.g. less well-off consumers). The Fed chair Trump appointed has a legal mandate to fulfill, which is one reason why he/she is supposed to be insulated from politics. Trump intends to undo that if he can get away with, which historically has been bad for the countries where it's happened. Economists have broken down sources for the USA inflation, and a simple "Trump vs Biden" doesn't explain all that much of it any more than the high inflation under Reagan could be explained while ignoring what Carter had set in motion. Maybe you can think of some of the other things which happened in the USA and in the world which did have a major impact on USA inflation? They got plenty of media coverage.
finally some financial utubers are giving the deserved spotlight to those that really understand markets. and Mr. Yardeni is one voice that we must listening even if we disagree with him. he knows this stuff I disagree with Mr. Yardeni about the equities for 2025 but probably he is right and I am too conservative and cautious. I'm betting more in bonds and less in equities
Remember: The overall economy is not just the stock market or its exchanges. Its the household-economy that MATTERS THE MOST! That juggernaut of public dollars spending/demand drives everything! (👈🏿Markets, prices, employment, polticians-job-security, credit, etc) Ignore that and its all just "fluff".
Dang, Adam should know we all need chapters when Yardeni speaks.....Yardeni is in a bubble most of the time. and you have to listen to this guy on 1.75X speed just to stay awake. smh.....
I don't hear anything about country government or economic collapse. Let me count the ways: China, Germany, France, South Korea, Syria, Nigeria....we don't live on an island. Sooner rather than later contagions spread.
I don't know if i am looking at it the wrong way but, if baby boomers start to spend their trillions of dollars, what do you think is that going to do to the economy? If that scenario will come to pass, why are people still calling for a recession knowing the boomers will be going on spending spree?
Fantastic discussion Excellent analysis Ed Thank you Sir very interesting I always love listening to you Thank You Gentlemen Thank you Adam, you are waking up and educating a whole generation
If you want to say inflation is moderating you must be following the gov data which is currently being proven to be manipulated just like the stock market. Reagan era real inflation calculation paints a picture much closer to what regular people have been seeing for the past couple years. The markets will likely keep going up because thats how the powers that be want it. Its about as real as debating the results of professional wrestling.
The dollar is dying. Since 1913 it has lost 97% of its purchasing power. 3% more is not that far! Who cares if the markets go up. Eventually the dollar is at zero
@@sb4333 don't believe me... look it up. a dollar now buys 97% less then it did in 1913. and if that still doesn't make sense to you, I can't help you.
Prediction for SPY around 42:00 is a bit much. He thinks earnings will grow 7% (not impossible, but these percent growth rates are doing alot of heavy lifting when you look at them in terms of absolute dollars, on top of the growth from the past few years), but he says 4% compound for dividends? That's where I have a big issue. VTI dividend is 1.25%. SPY = 1.2%. This is one of the downsides of bubbles perma-bulls forget. Most "dividend stocks" pay crap now. I used to be a dividend investor but the highest yield I can find that is not on a highly problematic company due for a dividend cut are maybe 5 utilities including EVRG and AEP. It's almost impossible to get a solid portfolio yielding even 2.8% these days since valuations are so insane, no one is having 4% dividends unless they're 100% utilities, which is a risk
He said the bull market was started in Oct 2022. How many people believe that? Following TA channels, most think we're in the same bull market from 2009 since we didn't really break long term trend lines except a few days during covid. Oct 2022 definitely didn't drop that far. I remember sitting there with cash and only investing half, because most stocks were just getting down to valuations they had been long term (low 20s PE, 2% dividends). I feel like it's revisionist history to pretend that was some major crash/bottom. All that happened was we popped some ridiculous bubble "tech" stocks, and "regular" stocks had a decent drop, but nothing like this mega crash perma-bulls pretend happened
That's correct (though not because TA says so). We are in a "typical" secular bull market. Over the last two centuries in the USA those have tended to run a fairly consistent twenty years (e.g. 1980-2000), and this one began in 2009. Viewed in the context of secular bull markets, 1987 wasn't a bear market -- just a blivit which many people lament having bailed out because of. S&P500 went up more than 500% from there before that secular bull market was over.
Hosting someone rambling and flip flopping and pulling out CNBC cliche talking points not based on reality makes many people uncomfortable. Typical perma bull these days
You guys flip flop worse than a fish out of water. Biden Administration has been great overall. No recession. No end of the world. Give credit to where credit is due.
Lol!!!!! Iw the worst economy in my lifetime. A literal recession. They changed the definition of recession because it got so bad. Where tf have you been? Markets are up because of inflation. This is not real growth.....
In particular, Trump himself predicted in 2020 that the stock market would "crash" if Biden won. Instead, it had one of its best first-year-of-presidency returns ever.
OMG--How refreshing it is to see an older financial analyst who truly understands tech and can intelligently discuss the facts. I'm going to SAVE this interview, and if the bullish call is right in 2025, I'll REMIND the bears 🐻 that they heard it right here in December 2024.
I've been around for several Fed chairs, going back to Volker in fact. The current chair in both style and substance has been maybe the best. Says about what he means most of the time, for one thing. Even says it somewhat clearly. It's been interesting to watch all the money lost in the bond market over the last few years by traders who imagine he isn't saying what he means.
Taggart needs to adopt a Growth Mindset. Technology has & will boost productivity & economic growth. This creates new jobs & more wealth for everyone. The pie is growing
The issue with the "boomers have alot of wealth, it will drive spending" is not that it's not true, but it's based on 1) overpriced stocks, that can easily go away, 2) overpriced real estate and land that is not selling. I'm seeing out-of-touch boomers attempting to sell their homes at +40% 2019 prices, sit for months, and delist. Land has been sitting at ridiculous prices for years. These out of touch people want 25K for landlocked acres hours from anything, 100K for 5 acre lots with nothing set up to build in areas where it was 20K before covid. Yes it looks like wealth on paper, but if you cannot sell it, does it really count?
True
It will all sell at the prices they want... as soon as we print another $16 trillion dollars... bailing out the Boomers (who have stolen and squandered it ALL) yet again. 🙄
100k for 5 acres is a lot?? Seems ridiculously cheap to me. Average 5 acre lots with no septic, well, etc are 400k CAD where I live
…and the nearest (small) city (100k population) is a 2 hour drive
@@HaydonAshurstFamily I genuinely don't know! I grew up near NYC where an acre would go for close to 300K these ways which sort of makes sense. My comment though was talking more about the price appreciation than the actual price, and talking about land in the middle of nowhere, hours away. 5 acres of oak trees or grass in the middle of nowhere TBH doesn't look big/like much at all, and is sort of useless if it has zero utilities
Ed is bullish and has never not been bullish. There isnt a single day he would consider it a bad day to invest, ever. He has long term view not a market timer.
Ed isn't wrong, but he is definitely an example of the haves being totally separated from the have nots...
Boomers have taken it all:
(1) Prosperity for them but destroyed for us through over regulation, licensing laws and all sorts of government created barriers to entry/competition for small business.
(2) Social Security, Medicare, etc. taxed away for them leaving nothing for us. Even the SS Trust fund was tapped to spend on them leaving nothing for us.
(3) Despite all that prosperity and wealth theft, they still saved virtually nothing, and thus continue to stay in the work force until death taking away opportunities for career advancement from younger generations.
Then they call every generation after them "lazy, greedy, selfish". 🙄 So much narcissistic projection.
There has likely never been a more selfish, arrogant and condescending generation than our Boomers. They ARE exactly what "tiny hats" are stereotyped to be.
Appreciate the bull argument to counterbalance the bears.
Pretty skeptical of anyone who has a strong conviction about where the market is headed, however. Beyond the very short term this shit is impossible to predict.
I love Ed, one of the best commentators in the market
ya this guy is a Perma Bull for sure, He should go on Bloomberg from time to time, he fits the Elitist Script!
Good to hear from both perspectives. After all, no one knows what will actually happen.
I share your distrust, however.
He is on Bloomberg pretty regularly
The only guy who has been right.
Me thinketh there's another., noise from the motor so let's turn up the radio even.........higher @!?🤪😉😅😅😅
Insiders making misleading statements about future earnings is very different than lying about actual current earnings. It's hard to pin a crime on an insider saying things about the future to keep the little people buying while they're selling out their positions.
Between them and realtors, small-time investors are in trouble.
Ed thinks social programs are helping the lower 30% prosper. Ed only thinks about the top 10% and said it himself if you listen close.
Yardeni is the biggest perma bull on Wall Street. If an asteroid hit the NYSE, he'd say no worries, the market has priced in the destruction and will be at new highs within a few weeks! 😅
Look at a chart of the stock market for past 100 years or more. Who's been right?
QE is the magic potion.
That sounds like some stories I've heard on CNBC since September/October LOL. I've been discussing this exact thing with people. Being from NYC. "If we fell into the ocean, CNBC would think it's bullish because now there will be a building boom!"
@@Yetified_Mayhem Fake argument. The bull/bear discussions are about the next few months to two years. No one is saying "stocks will be lower in 70 years'
"If an asteroid hit the NYSE, he'd say no worries" Corporations eventually return essentially all corporate profits via equity appreciation and dividends. I would guess that little if any of the S&P 500's component profits are tied to the well-being of a building in Manhattan. So that would simply demonstrate an understanding how equities are "fueled", rather than indicating a market sentiment.
Love this guest! Very intelligent man :)
So, why is Buffet selling?
Because he can?
He's a value investor and doesn't see any value for buying, and sells at the top *per company* for selling. Simple as that.
If he's doing it because he's predicting a crash, he started far too early and has missed serious market rises.
Better assumption is that 'it was always based on value'.
Because he's in his 90s and does give a dam.
Adam had to let a bull on because literally all his other guests have been wrong for literally years
What are you taking about. Recent revisions showed that Dimartino Booth was right about the employment market.
Do you watch the pod from week to week? He’s had bulls on a plenty lol.
The epitome of a “I’m fine, save more and buy less avocado toast if you’re struggling” boomer.
Exactly. It's insulting.
Funny, Lance and him have very different views, but they BOTH share that same elitist philosophy.
Ed has been hated by broke angry bears for some time now. He's consistently right and making money, thus the hate.
You're thinking too hard. It's really not that complicated, the stock market is just a mattress for people to stuff dollars into so they don't inflate away. Some people choose gold as the mattress, some people choose stocks, some choose crypto etc. As long as there is more money that needs somewhere to hide from inflation all asset prices will rise. Nothing to do with the actual economy or performance of companies per se. Same reason why no matter how many t bills they print foreigners still buy more, the dollar is just the best mattress around and the NYSE is a great place to stuff dollars. I mean fart coin was deemed a reasonable place to park $800 million dollars ffs. Even if only for a brief moment it was somewhere to put a dollar with at least the chance at a better fate than in a .02% yield savings account.
It's like fine art. People paying millions of dollars for paintings don't spend a million dollars worth of time and energy enjoying them, it's
just better than holding a million pieces of currency that lose
value over time.
They are forced to lower rates because we were putting too much pressure on other countries.
Finally after 100 bears, we get to listen also to some bull. Thanks!
You have the entire mainstream media to listen to people say "muh best economy ever," yes, dudes like this make the channel "balanced" but the media overall is very not balanced
@@RSI_50 HE wasn't a bear the entire time. But most or all of the growth since SPY 540 was fluff, not based on earnings. NO ONE predicted it. The most bullish bull predicted 560 by EOY. Which was an insane call because it was based on multiple expansion (i.e. fluff) not reality. You need to appreciate how ridiculous it is that that ended up being correct, not that someone looking at facts ended up being "wrong"
“We deserve it!” What a great example of the 10%. The system is working for him, he sees no problems for the rest of us.
Disgustingly out of touch.
and just a heads up he rambles on until 29:30- thats when he gives you his forecast,.
thanks dude
Guess work only. No one knows.
Best thing you can do is DCA into index funds...simple
Ivory Tower is all I can hear.
Ed is awesome. His optimism is very contagious!
Always enjoy hearing from Ed.
Wondering why none of these analysts talk much about food prices - and commodities. Coffee and cocoa are up immensely.
They don't have much of anything to do with when to buy or sell a basket of equities.
Immensely relative to our income. Only a pittance relative to THEIR incomes.
LOL! Ed, without a doubt, is the GOAT. The rest of you perma bears… 🤡🤡🤡😂
It's kind of telling that he started college in engineering and physics and didn't have a clue what it was about, so switched to economics. 15:16
Never heard so much BS. In summary “this time it’s different”
It may be because we're going through a series of inflationary recessions, instead of deflationary recessions.
Same misery for the masses though... even though "number go up".
Perma Bulls, Perma Bears...I try to gain pieces of insight from each to support selecting the right sectors at the right time.
🍿
When Adam says “Okay.” With a quavering voice, that’s his tell for when he doesn’t agree with an interviewee’s response to a question.
I wish Ed’s optimism comes out to be true, but my hunch says John and Mike would turn out to be correct at the end.
I’m confused. If Ed’s contention is that “consumer spending remains strong, supported by baby boomers’ $70 trillion in assets, which underpins demand and corporate earnings”, doesn’t the fact that the boomers have to sell assets in order to spend that money mean that there will be more selling and less buying pressure in the markets?
He did not really say anything
That's many perma bull channels these days, which should make people think. During the bottom of crashes (remember those, lol), bulls are making loads of solid factual points. At peaks, they run out of real things to say. Which is why they've brought out the term "animal spirits" out of the closet.
He said he's rich and doing fine, so the rest of us don't matter. Take your government scraps and be happy.
It's insulting.
Adam, honestly, on AI, .. I live on $500/month budget (really well, imo) .. but all my media entertainment is free, i dont need or want to go out that mucj anymore, and I don't buy tangible 'things' anymore. if that's the norm, can you imagine the insane deflationary pressure from .. the 90s? someone on a inflstion adjusted budget of $500/month? they'd go insane with nothing to do
39:00 “it gets distributed evenly over time” 😱 Ed is basically a real life resident of The Capitol and thinks the Districts should be grateful for the scraps they’re given.
This guy is so out of touch with the average American.
haha I'm from NYC and whenever I go into Manhattan for work I deal with people like CNBC guests and this guy and it's a relief to leave at the end of the day. They have no clue how 95% of people live. Which is freaking bizarre, since companies around us are laying off, not hiring, not replacing retiring people, giving small raises. Jokes on them, they think their wealth is liquid, but wait until they need to dump stocks or unload the extra house they think is worth 750K when the housing market is frozen
@@istvanpraha
It really can't happen soon enough. 🤷♂️
GET THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S FREE NEWSLETTER at thoughtfulmoney.substack.com/
You should maybe pin this at the top or something, Adam.
so i'm taking "AI" advice from a guy who dropped out of freshman physics?😂
Ed makes some good points, and he has been right this time around. However, keep in mind that his historical performance of predicting recessions is not good. I was happy to see that Lance Roberts just pointed this out in his article last month "Yardeni And The Long History Of Prediction Problems". Ed is almost 75 and his financial situation is much different than the average working age adult who is dependent on their day job to live.
Predicting recessions is a broke man's game. Not a market wizard strategy.
Ed is long term. Recessions are short term. Adam should just tell everyone his show is for traders NOT for investors.
@@MattMatusiak The problem is if you lose your job during a recession, you can't think long term.
Tight credit spread lessens the chance of Black Swans, but it doesn't preclude a bear market due to "global liquidity" down cycle,--right? Maybe we should have a Yardeni-Howell debate? 🙂
When are these bears not cautious? 😂
I think I remember Ed Yardeni being one of the panelists on the old "Wall St. Week" with the late Louis Ruckheyser. I should have paid more attention to the bulls like him way back then. The modern stock market has proven to be almost exclusively for optimists. Sure, I've made money, but I would have made a lot more money. Live and learn.
Still miss the year-end WSW with LR show. WSW hasn't been the same since Lou passed.
Good bullish interview with a different perspective. Agree with the potential; however, one small component overlooked - MASSSIVE DEBT
Really great
I suppose he could be right that after a small, much needed correction the market will continue upwards.
Thank you, Adam for addressing that us poors need to participate in the AI and robotics boom that will be making some people unfathomably rich. If people don’t participate, it won’t work. Guest is wrong on this matter though. My opinion. People thought they voted for reduced prices and they still expect it without a massive crash.
Blame the Fed on the farmer. Convenient interference for the Banksters.
Yeah, that was a complete and utter load of 🐂💩.
Sorry Adam but given the long time you have for these interviews there can be many more incivise and specific questions and less time on broad philosophical deliberations that do not lead to meaningful investment decisions. E.g., Ed is expecting stronger earnings while Lance is expecting lower earnings. Beyond tax cuts, how will earnings increase in a world of deglobalization and tariffs, higher consumer debt and higher corporate debt cost? Where will AI revenue come from when none of the Mag-7 have as yet shown any AI revenue except from selling chips by Nvidia?
Lil Eddie made me laugh multiple times during this interview. He's lucky Biden was trying to buy an election. Stay bullish when the debt liquidity dries up.
Adam, surely you can accept and admit that Ed is completely out of touch and delusional. Not so much because he is very bullish. But because he totally ignored and dismissed the wealth gap issue that you brought up. If he is that ignorant, he sure doesn't belong on your show. Ever.
What, specifically, does a trading podcast have to do with wealth gap discussion?
@@MattMatusiakyou've been misinformed. This is not a "trading podcast"
@@993C2S is about what? politics?
Equity appreciation works off of corporate profits, not wealth gaps. BTW the USA is middle-of-the-pack on that metric -- in the same part of the list as India and the PRC.
Need to get him and Hanke in a debate.
The markets are doing just fine, not the economy. I disagree with the people saying the fed shouldn't cut because rates are still way higher than economic output, so yes, the rates are still restrictive.
When the government skews the numbers at will
How can you make a correct analysis
Does that guy even look at the economic data in detail? Does he even consider lag effects? He just seems like a permabull that was probably also the most bullish bull in 2000 and 2007
Are recessions no longer part of the economic cycle? Serious question
LIKED! 😊👍
Gold is down ~$200 from its oct high (not 50-100)
I've been making a lot of looses trying to make profit trading. I thought trading on a demo account is just like trading the real market. Can anyone help me out or at least advise me on what to do?
Trading on a demo account can definitely feel similar to the real market, but there are some differences. It's important to remember that trading involves risks and it's normal to face looses sometimes. One piece of advice is to start small and gradually increase your investments as you gain more experience and confidence. It might also be helpful to seek guidance from experienced traders or do some research on different trading strategies
I will advise you should stop trading on your own if you keep losing.
If you can, then get a professional to trade for you i think that way your assets are more secure
I'd recommend Bernila Andrew her profit is great even when there's a dip
AI sucks
Thank you Adam
Let’s party like it’s 2025 🎉
Great show, especially bringing in the new harbor guys after Ed to give both scenarios for the next year or two
Does the US consumer still drive the global economy?
Evidently not!
Probably 'driven by it, with a lag'.
I really appreciate the perspective and guidance given by John and Mike
Thank you very much...
1st 😸
I love this channel but I think you have lost your damn mind when you say there is no need to cut interest rates. This is such a no brainer, seeing how countless people were blindsided by apr rates going from 3% under trump to over 8% during biden. This creates a huge burden for many people. The economy is not "just fine".
Asset prices are the issue, not interest rates. Houses in my medium-cost-of-living area where salaries are 50K-75K went from 400K to 700K during covid and have been stuck up there with no sales since 2022. Not sure how that is an interest rate issue, even though the media loves that fake narrative. Same thing with cars.
There's a lot more to where interest rates should go than what might benefit one particular group (e.g. less well-off consumers). The Fed chair Trump appointed has a legal mandate to fulfill, which is one reason why he/she is supposed to be insulated from politics. Trump intends to undo that if he can get away with, which historically has been bad for the countries where it's happened.
Economists have broken down sources for the USA inflation, and a simple "Trump vs Biden" doesn't explain all that much of it any more than the high inflation under Reagan could be explained while ignoring what Carter had set in motion. Maybe you can think of some of the other things which happened in the USA and in the world which did have a major impact on USA inflation? They got plenty of media coverage.
Lol, i can not wait for the comments.
finally some financial utubers are giving the deserved spotlight to those that really understand markets. and Mr. Yardeni is one voice that we must listening even if we disagree with him. he knows this stuff
I disagree with Mr. Yardeni about the equities for 2025 but probably he is right and I am too conservative and cautious. I'm betting more in bonds and less in equities
Same here. Good viewpoint
Remember: The overall economy is not just the stock market or its exchanges. Its the household-economy that MATTERS THE MOST! That juggernaut of public dollars spending/demand drives everything! (👈🏿Markets, prices, employment, polticians-job-security, credit, etc) Ignore that and its all just "fluff".
Those guys going into 15-20% of their portfolio on January puts...bold move cotton.
Dang, Adam should know we all need chapters when Yardeni speaks.....Yardeni is in a bubble most of the time. and you have to listen to this guy on 1.75X speed just to stay awake. smh.....
I don't hear anything about country government or economic collapse. Let me count the ways: China, Germany, France, South Korea, Syria, Nigeria....we don't live on an island. Sooner rather than later contagions spread.
I don't know if i am looking at it the wrong way but, if baby boomers start to spend their trillions of dollars, what do you think is that going to do to the economy? If that scenario will come to pass, why are people still calling for a recession knowing the boomers will be going on spending spree?
Sp to 7600
Fantastic discussion
Excellent analysis Ed
Thank you Sir
very interesting
I always love listening to you
Thank You Gentlemen
Thank you Adam, you are waking up and educating a whole generation
Does anyone know what type of returns New Harbor has? These guys are wildly bearish and have been calling for a market crash for years.
In what world does this guy live?
If you want to say inflation is moderating you must be following the gov data which is currently being proven to be manipulated just like the stock market. Reagan era real inflation calculation paints a picture much closer to what regular people have been seeing for the past couple years. The markets will likely keep going up because thats how the powers that be want it. Its about as real as debating the results of professional wrestling.
The dollar is dying. Since 1913 it has lost 97% of its purchasing power. 3% more is not that far! Who cares if the markets go up. Eventually the dollar is at zero
That makes zero sense
@@sb4333 don't believe me... look it up. a dollar now buys 97% less then it did in 1913. and if that still doesn't make sense to you, I can't help you.
Prediction for SPY around 42:00 is a bit much. He thinks earnings will grow 7% (not impossible, but these percent growth rates are doing alot of heavy lifting when you look at them in terms of absolute dollars, on top of the growth from the past few years), but he says 4% compound for dividends? That's where I have a big issue. VTI dividend is 1.25%. SPY = 1.2%. This is one of the downsides of bubbles perma-bulls forget. Most "dividend stocks" pay crap now. I used to be a dividend investor but the highest yield I can find that is not on a highly problematic company due for a dividend cut are maybe 5 utilities including EVRG and AEP. It's almost impossible to get a solid portfolio yielding even 2.8% these days since valuations are so insane, no one is having 4% dividends unless they're 100% utilities, which is a risk
"I didn't mean to make this so Fed heavy." 😂
He said the bull market was started in Oct 2022. How many people believe that? Following TA channels, most think we're in the same bull market from 2009 since we didn't really break long term trend lines except a few days during covid. Oct 2022 definitely didn't drop that far. I remember sitting there with cash and only investing half, because most stocks were just getting down to valuations they had been long term (low 20s PE, 2% dividends). I feel like it's revisionist history to pretend that was some major crash/bottom. All that happened was we popped some ridiculous bubble "tech" stocks, and "regular" stocks had a decent drop, but nothing like this mega crash perma-bulls pretend happened
That's correct (though not because TA says so). We are in a "typical" secular bull market. Over the last two centuries in the USA those have tended to run a fairly consistent twenty years (e.g. 1980-2000), and this one began in 2009. Viewed in the context of secular bull markets, 1987 wasn't a bear market -- just a blivit which many people lament having bailed out because of. S&P500 went up more than 500% from there before that secular bull market was over.
Since when is 3% off all time highs a “correction”? Clown world
No timestamps. Pass.
Good to see both sides of the coin.
Adam seems extremely uncomfortable speaking to a market bull like Ed.
Not uncomfortable at all. I'm also very comfortable giving Ed credit for remaining bullish over the past 2 years.
Hosting someone rambling and flip flopping and pulling out CNBC cliche talking points not based on reality makes many people uncomfortable. Typical perma bull these days
You guys flip flop worse than a fish out of water. Biden Administration has been great overall. No recession. No end of the world. Give credit to where credit is due.
Lol!!!!! Iw the worst economy in my lifetime. A literal recession. They changed the definition of recession because it got so bad. Where tf have you been? Markets are up because of inflation. This is not real growth.....
In particular, Trump himself predicted in 2020 that the stock market would "crash" if Biden won. Instead, it had one of its best first-year-of-presidency returns ever.
I'll bet Ed's a d4 Queens side opening guy.
OMG--How refreshing it is to see an older financial analyst who truly understands tech and can intelligently discuss the facts. I'm going to SAVE this interview, and if the bullish call is right in 2025, I'll REMIND the bears 🐻 that they heard it right here in December 2024.
We just had a melt up in tech. What more do you think will happen? Which specific fact/trend did you like the most?
Love Yardeni. Great guest. Thank you ❤
When actually is Preston not cautious
Adam, can you inviting Simon Hunt ?
I didn't know until this day that it was Yardeni all along.
YYAAAA BOI.
I am tired of these edited videos posted eons after they were recorded. Who cares what Yardeni said a decade ago.
This was recorded on Thursday. How is that eons ago???
@@adam.taggart , it is eons ago for people who trade the 1 minute chart.
@@adam.taggart Guess the guy is just an impatient psycho XDXD
adam i will lke to ave a meeting wit ne of your fiainacuak advisors
So you're saying the Fed did their job 🤔
I've been around for several Fed chairs, going back to Volker in fact. The current chair in both style and substance has been maybe the best. Says about what he means most of the time, for one thing. Even says it somewhat clearly. It's been interesting to watch all the money lost in the bond market over the last few years by traders who imagine he isn't saying what he means.
$410000 at 4% return = 16,000 + 20,000 (socSec). Is 36000 enough to cover COL for a year...depends where you live.
Taggart needs to adopt a Growth Mindset. Technology has & will boost productivity & economic growth. This creates new jobs & more wealth for everyone. The pie is growing