Economic meltdown, restructuring debt, and rebuilding Pakistan
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 3 มิ.ย. 2024
- In this episode, Uzair talks to Ali Farid Khwaja about the economic chaos in Pakistan and the collapse of the rupee. We also talk about why restructuring is necessary and how that process would work. Finally, we also touch on the startup community and takeaways from Paklaunch’s Unconference, which was recently held in Dubai.
Ali Farid Khwaja is Chairman of KTrade Securities and has over a decade of experience in the technology and financial sectors.
Chapters:
0:00 Introduction
2:30 Devaluation of the rupee and debt restructuring
15:30 Why has selective default happened?
24:30 Economic discourse and role of politics
31:10 Gravity of the situation
34:43 Takeaways from Paklaunch Unconference
40:19 Saving and investing for the long-term
44:30 Need for honesty
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Thank you, in all the depression from the current state of the economy, it helps listening to sane voices. Please keep it up.
KARMA is kicking KALMA left and right hence the situation of Pakistan
Ali Farid Khawaja probably lives in dream world. He doesn’t know what is the trust level of Pakistan in tech sectors. Come one Ali.
Wait, what is the perception of Pakistan's tech sector globally?
@@waleedabbas4996 i heard Pakistan has good hackers and cybersec experts.
@@waleedabbas4996 Pakistans global position is that of ex-FATF beggar state which runs on terrorist and opium trade.
KARMA is kicking KALMA left and right hence the situation of Pakistan
Keep doing the great work, Uzair bhai.
This man uzair is definitely straightforward and honest man who says how it is. Appreciate his truthfulness. Big man keep up good work. Hope more Pakistani people understand his views.
There are still no signs for long term structural reforms. Even more horrendous times ahead.
A country that pegged the currency (EGO) will NEVER go for default 🤔
They may not go for formally restructuring loans. But just as peg had to disband, default also is inevitable.
There'sanother small story called Shatranj Ke Khilari by Munshi Premchand which was turned into a phenomenal film by Satyajit Ray. Stars Saeed Jafree, Sanjeev Kumsr, Richards Attenborough, Ammadam Khan, Shabana Azmi. Story of 2 Lucknowi Nawabs engrossed in their games of Chess whike the British are slowly taking steps to over power the Kingdom of Oudh.
Very good analysis and advice by Mr Khawaja sb and Mr Uzair sb !
Thank you for this podcast. Much needed talk.
Please do discuss how a layman can manage with upcoming painful period. Especially someone who has some savings.
Apparently the political parties haven't learned any lessons from their own and other parties' mistakes. No one is willing to admit _mea culpa._ Probably they fear that any self-admission would be politically suicidal. That's why all of them are defensive all the time.
Another deadly problem: Any opposition party has a chance at the hustings only if the voters are fed up of the ruling party. That's why they try to induce frustration in the voters by exaggerating the current problems and blaming the ruling party for it. In normal days, this is tolerable. But in a crisis situation, it saps the fighting spirit of the citizens, and devastates the nation.
The daily _nautankis_ and staunch refusal to mend their ways would cause a global loss of confidence, in the investors and lenders alike (individual, institutions, banks and countries).
And yet all political parties are engaged in a fight-to-death brinkmanship, instead of reaching an all-party agreement on the economic situation.
All are happy to survive one day at a time. When any help arrives, it is pilfered heavily, and hardly any succor reaches the public.
No party has any roadmap about how to kickstart the economy and make the CAD/BOP healthy again.
So Pakistan would never exit IMF programs, and the debt would go on burgeoning.
Worst of all, IK has dissolved the assemblies to force an election just as the beleaguered government has to strive hard to stave off a default on a daily basis, and while the flood victims are left to their own devices.
Can the country afford to spend 47 Bn PKR to conduct a fresh election at this moment, and divert the state machinery to election management?
When 20% of the population is still flood-affected, and hence cannot vote?
When your constitution stated that Pakistan's sovereignty rests with Allah, did you imagine it to turn out this way?
Close economy, tax reformations, collections Agriculture reforms and many more. This is what IMF and world expecting.
Uzair you seem very happy, your tind is showing your happiness
India demonetization had severely impacted Pakistan currency. PKR was around 105 from 2013 to 2017 (exactly till one year after demonetization). From November 2017 to August 2019, PKR depreciated by more then 50 percent. Steepest depreciation started from April 2021 till Jan 2023.
Not related its just a coincidence
Yes fake currency was converted into dollars and then send to Dubai via courier as everyone was allowed 5000 dollars in INDIA while travelling abroad
@Muhhahha INR was 67.97rs against 1 USD in 2016. Research well before commenting and whataboutery at which you pakistanis are at top.
@Muhhahha and our annual export rate increasingly at a rapid pace so we also get benefitted from currency devaluation.
Corelation is not causation. please dont speak like uneducated pakistanis.
A default does not mean that you are not able to survive. It just means that your way should be changed but Unfortunately the machinary of our country is so versatile that it can not change with out breaking. We the people of Pakistan should stand against the system because if this situation is not opening our eyes no else situation can. It means we are living dead.
Yea you are the living dead. A country that produces suicide bombers loves jannat and lives jahannum.
KARMA is kicking KALMA left and right hence the situation of Pakistan
At 39:39 would be good if further explained. What's the status of freelancers who are dependent on getting paid from overseas in the bankruptcy scenario?
Actually that 9 billion pak claimed to received in Geneva, most of it is debt restructuring 🤣.
Uzair , for people who hear you , have a person in your team who speaks in urdu to the many who dont understand english , you need a lallantop approach , you are the voice that your country needs to hear
Anyone know how to spell Nazuk moor, the podcast that uzair plugged?
Nazuk mor नाज़ुक मोड़
What's at stake is credibility...how will businesses survive if the credibility of the country goes for a toss. The lenders won't do a rollover, the exporters to the country would prefer cash payment for their exports meaning your country's importers would be badly stressed. Please do a one-to-one discussion with real businessmen/corporates to gauge the real impact...
Please watch the video on which you have commented as all those points discussed
You can’t expect honesty from the children of the elite of Pakistan.
Musharraf also had a dollar peg at 60 from 2001 to 2007.
Srry cant find the link to your other podcast. Can you pls respond to my comment with it? THank you
th-cam.com/video/mhq8UTUzUZQ/w-d-xo.html
Might have referred to this one.
from the USD 2.7 B wasn't a big chunk spent on vaccines?
0:21 ye kis cheez ki awaz thi? :p
The way this discussion cruised from Pakistan economy to money making eventually shows the priorities of even the experts in Pakistan.. 😂
Jokes apart. Big respect to both..
Default IS a big deal and people are right to fear it, even if it appears to be inevitable. What it means is that new foreign loans will be hard to come by. The country will have to significantly cut down its imports (which includes oil, wheat, cotton and other raw materials for textiles, fertilizer, edible oil, tea, medicines, auto spareparts etc). These shortages will drive load shedding, reduced exports, health emergency and hunger. What makes it worse is that armed forces are unwilling to share in the pain.
Separately since Pakistan has a low savings to GDP ratio, periods of high growth have always been driven by injection of foreign grants (dried up a while back) and foreign loans (will dry up now), so Pakistan will be stuck in a low growth, high inflation cycle for several years which in turn will drive unemployment and poverty. Poverty does not always drive terrorism but in Pakistan it may.
People are right to fear default, even if aa Ali has rightly assessed that it is inevitable.
I'm listening your podcast couples of days I'm really impressed with your way of describing things. I want to know what's your opinion about those persons who looted Pakistan, and put all asset of Pakistan into Swiss accounts. If all those elites, who claimed they are proud Pakistanis bring looted money back into Pakistan, then the situation of Pakistan will be better.
Totally agreed what both of you are saying, but let me remind you that PPP and pmln in 1990s used PIA, railway and other government institutions to get political gains when they appoint their own party workers in these institutions. Hence economy of these state owned inteeprises was badly affected. So you cannot say that after 2008 economic policies were made to gain political gains. Even in Ayub era only those industralist were given licenses or loans which were ayub allies
Default shows your credibility, it impacts FDI, Lenders risk other economic blunder, Default can't be taken easy
As per Ishaq Dar it is Allah's failure
Inflation can be managed to some extent but if you are not going decisions no buddy is going to help.
1) Strike down on the public distribution and holders. Couple of cases will reduce demand and supply. Temporary legislation and order will improve over all. However if importing then…..
A risk cover unit is coming to Pakistan on Jan 31 St from IMF.
Everyone is Pakistan always shy of speaking truth. All would say, increase export, higher remittances and FDI. But how no one knows. More often answer is obvious but who would bell the cat. Only way out is for Pakistan to behave normally, less emphasis on Islam and open up without prejudices. Pakistan has to redefine friends and foes, loss and profit, rights and wrongs, do and dons. Saying above things for me are easy but I am sure Pakistan won’t do it and talks and ideas would remain as they were. After all Pakistan was created by Allah and its His duty to take care.
Actually it's their army which is into business. They even sell peas lol. That's why no one can do business their except the army.
the only way that can happen is when people start going away from the idea of Pakistan that is today. In Bangladesh that happened because the land was far away to manage law and perceptions. With curerent Pakistan which is more and more uniform its gonna be hard. The only way this will change with total economic collapse.
So india Globel hunger index is 107 out of 116.
6Crore Pakistanis are in Hunger.
19Crore indians are in hunger.
So first please answer me Where is your Bhagwan or 🐄💦.
Everyone know your bhaqwan can't move from one place to another but Gaye Mata can do something for this hungery people.$ure!
So in simple terms two nation theory. They have to dump it and with that Kashmir also.
@@manu.ba374 the hunger index actually doesn’t measure hunger. It measures nutrition value. And Indians don’t eat the type of food west eats or rather had bad choice of food. So it’s not what you think it is. It was further messed by asking four questions in pole during Covid pandemic. The pole itself is BS.
With your own numbers if you factor in population size you will see that Indians as a percentage of total population are less hungry.
Don’t take these numbers very seriously. They are often bided against india for many reasons. Just watch some videos of p sainath of the print for more details.
Allah is in control in Pakistan. Allah o sabkar
Al Lat. Lat mar raha hai
Qabar khoda almost done👍🏿
Sirf aapki economic policy unorthodox or irrational nahi hai. Aapki foreign or internal security policies bhi utni hi irrational hai which was bankrolled by USA. Ab jab unhone aid dena chodd diya to aap baar baar default ki taraf ja rahe hain. Ek solution ho sakta hai ki aap India ke saath trade kholein aur India ko transit rights dein towards central Asia. In return you will get a market of billion plus people for your goods and services that you can export to us. Kashmir ko 20-25 saal ke liye side pe karte hain.
Agreed 💯
Do you mean to say Pakistan is not aware of. But if any country or people have decided to take different path even Allah can’t help. Why Pakistan won’t realize that there are no two nations based on religions and India have more Muslims than Pakistan or any other country.
@@UmeshGupta-sh7nj There are reasonable and unreasonable people everywhere including in India. But problem is unreasonable people in Pakistan have power. But with an economic crises of this proportion maybe they will see reason.
Lol its a wet dream only. the route to central asia through pakistan is highly unreliable and has serious security concern. india has already dumped this route 10yrs ago and chahbhar was developed only as a counter for this. also Centra asia market cap is not much.
Pakistan inherently untrustworthy. It’s not only with India but with almost everybody.
KARMA is kicking KALMA left and right hence the situation of Pakistan
Allamdulilah Allah tala apna karam aise hi banaye rakhein pakistan par toh inshaallah dollar 2500 tak chala jaega.. AMEEN SUMMAMEEN 🤲🤲🤲
Restructuring of your society .
1) Military/ ISI/ Atomic Bomb
2) Role down religious burden.
3) Implement family planing no more Alla Ki Den hai …… hai to save why IMF…
Actually, the public is also responsible of this predicament in pakistan. We have allowed them so long to play with the economy.
You have allowed them to play with you.
KARMA is kicking KALMA left and right hence the situation of Pakistan
Currency is over valued and it is devaluated
Forget debt restructuring. First restructure your constitution and make the civilian Government more powerful! Institutions more powerful, make the army an instrument Instead of an institution.
Be democratic first.
English k alfaz na istimal karain, na hi sentences. Make it easy for the audience man!
Economy is a hard topic and with the change of language, it gets even harder. Thank you!
You have not touched upon basic Problems of Pakistan. Population growth and illetracy are huge Problems for Pakistan's economy, unless you adress these Problems you can't move forward. Hyper inflation will lead to food riots and huge political instability, which ultimately may lead to dismemberment of Pakistan.
That is true but that is whole subcontinent issue. Those issues are linked to partition, Two Nation Theory, heroes and Islam.
Go to islamic development bank. Kick out IMF, Paris club etc
Do they charge interest?
ali farid , there is a difference in your assesment , if your commercial loans are hardly 10% and 80% are institutional loans /multilateral it shows only 2 things - there is limited commerce in your country as nobody wants to invest take commercial debt 2) multilateral loans for some grand projects which donot impact common man in the short 5-10 years - pakistan is largely mismanaged where the elite is now sitting on the fence because they have the money and the average person on the street is suffering .... civil war next if you chaps cannot manage this well
Is it necessary to announce the default for getting debt rescheduled? Why can't we ask for it without declaring the default? @Ali Fareed Khawaja
It's like saying we are divorced without signing on the divorce papers.
The moment you ask for restructuring you are in technical default.. That’s how the system works..
KARMA is kicking KALMA left and right hence the situation of Pakistan
Nothing against you guys, but Pakistan can restructure with lending governments without declaring default. Luckily Pakistan has less commercial loans to repay.
There is no need to cause, unnecessary pain to common folk.
Whether default is declared or not, when loans are restructured, market treats it as a default. Foreign exporters will not send goods on LCs and will demand cash. So imports will have to crash further.
Aapko Ghabrana nahi hai.
Pakistan Paindabad
Pakistan ka matlab kya?
La illaha illalat
👎👎👎👎👎👎
Default means that the entire banking system of the world will not trust paki banks... All LCs etc will have to be underwritten or guaranteed by another international bank... Loans come at a higher interest rate (further increasing burden) and so on...... But I guess the army is still showing u guys dreams of ghazwa e hind and kashmir banega Pakistan... Unless the people of Pakistan show maturity and dial down thier religious zealotry, pakis will face starvation