Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Bend Not Break Part 5" | The Great Simplification #50
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 18 ธ.ค. 2022
- Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Bend Not Break Part 5: Criteria and Categories for Response"
Show Summary:
On this 5th and final installment of the Bend Not Break series with Daniel Schmachtenberger, we unpack the framework and mindset needed to begin thinking about responses. This conversation touches on what it means to work on personal development in the light of a polycrisis, and how it is truly a never ending but necessary challenge. Finally, Daniel and Nate break down a 3x3 grid on time frame and category of responses.
Whilst this is the end of this series, there is, of course, much left to be unpacked. If there are any specific topics you want covered in a follow up Daniel/Nate conversation, we encourage you to leave your questions in the comments of the TH-cam video, which can be found here: • Daniel Schmachtenberge...
About Daniel Schmachtenberger:
Daniel Schmachtenberger is a founding member of The Consilience Project, aimed at improving public sensemaking and dialogue.
The throughline of his interests has to do with ways of improving the health and development of individuals and society, with a virtuous relationship between the two as a goal.
Towards these ends, he’s had particular interest in the topics of catastrophic and existential risk, civilization and institutional decay and collapse as well as progress, collective action problems, social organization theories, and the relevant domains in philosophy and science.
For Show Notes and More visit: www.thegreatsimplification.co...
My new favorite Schmachtenberger soundbite: "The answer to all the problems is all of the solutions. There is not a theory of change, there is an ecology of theories of change. So often when someone says, "What is the solution?" it sounds like someone is saying "What species is a forest?"'
Lots of problem talk rather than solution talk because the solutions require societal change. Which requires societal change to incentives which drive the existing system. A massive job.
Lol! Same.
💯 agree though, I've been saying it for years: culture is the issue and entering a race to the bottom that has been increasing in speed exponentially has led us to where we are.
Breaking the cycle is the challenge.
That's not how the world works.
His basic premise is that we need intellectuals with hearts of gold at the top of the social dominance hierarchy or else we're fucked.
Notice how he never explains how that will ever come to be or gives any call to action to get people to try and make it so.
Daniel is the type of guy who'll stand on the deck of the Titanic and give a 10 hour lecture on how the ship will sink instead of gathering troops to overthrow the captain crew and prevent the actual shipwreck.
@Alex Sem
Oh, Thats not how the world works you say? Then tell us, wise sage! How does it work? And how ought it work?
@@alexsem490 I understand why you would say “that’s not how the world works” because when you look at our current state as a whole (humanity on earth), the dominant cultures are all the best at game theoretic practices, with the main objectives being to increase our (ultimately) individual balance sheets which promote sociopathic behavior, so, yes, that’s “not how the world works”, but I would add one more word to the end of that statement, “currently”.
What Daniel is so gifted at doing is very effectively articulating our current state & how we got here in a way that can enlighten the masses where we would otherwise not understand and this is of utmost importance because we need awareness before we can make meaningful change.
I’m not saying this change will be easy, because it is ingrained in us to “want more stuff”, which is the fundamental cause of rivalrous dynamics between people, leading to all the “bad”. But what Daniel has helped me realize is that we as a species can change our ways if we can change our value systems like the very peaceful cultures that exist even today amongst us capitalist pigs - instead of putting our energies towards trying to obtain the best marketed thing instead of the actual best thing, and valued being kind and helpful to others instead of being individualistic & selfish, etc, we would probably fair better but now as I was typing this I just realized that I don’t really want to ride public transport or not have my nice things. The planet will be good for my lifetime and my children’s so … yeah, that’s a big ask. But Daniel is cool as hell. ☮️ ✌️
Some unhinged self indulgence regarding Schmachtenberger's advice (1:29:40): Upon earning my bachelors degree I concluded there was no career out there worth pursuing. I instead grabbed the first job I could find, aggressively saved money and within nine months bought an acre of land. Then 23, I lived under a tarp while building myself a cabin. I have since paid everything off and spend the majority of my time gardening, wildcrafting, exercising, meditating and making music with friends. I spend next to nothing and only secure substantial income if I am developing some part of the property (building a greenhouse for instance). Regarding "keeping your overhead low" I think Schmachtenberger's advice is spot on. I couldn't be happier.
P.S. I know how distasteful it is to blabber about yourself on someone else's platform so, sorry Nate, but I couldn't resist
Awesome! Very admirable! Did you find many social difficulties/ heavy peer pressure/ subtle social deterrents at different stages of your journey so far?
Sounds like you have some valuable life experience worth sharing. Have you seen the edible acres podcast? they are doing great videos.
@@Dilmahkana the primary pushback was from my parents. They are "gated community types" who raised my sister to be an attorney and me to be a doctor. My sister is a successful attorney; I on the other hand...
I also received some pushback from the neighbors when I initially purchased land. I live in a very poor county in the hills of NC and folks didn't take kindly to a yankee hippy owning land in their hood.
Both the above problems have since resolved.
@@moodulated I have not. I'm looking it up now. Thanks for the tip!
In doing this process, can u now see the value to what a Venus project would become, from the ground upwards, rather than the top down academic?
A hand made future is essentialism?
I love watching Nate as he thinks he's running a 5K to a 3X3 grid and then finds it's a 10K and then it's a marathon and finally realizes it's an ultra through the back roads of Appalachia. But at last they get there.
That made me laugh out loud 😀
I am here for the ultra @@thegreatsimplification! Quite literally training for an ultra listening to these magnificent conversations. The forest animals never know what they are getting -- tears, guffaws, gasps -- it’s all in these episodes. Thanks Nate -- happy to meet you!
When well-being becomes as high or higher value as profits, there will be miracles.
Nate - at the beginning of this conversation you mention things that worry you - climate loss, insect loss … and Daniel takes a “high-touch” approach to his engagement with this planet’s problems. New Zealand is a wonderful place to experiment with all three parts of your matrix - culture, political economy and tech. Our indigenous culture, Maori, have recently acquired rights to recover a tiny fraction of what they lost during colonisation and subsequent theft of their land and suppression of their culture. Some of their maraes could now become “islands of coherence”, as you, Nate, described in your Superorganism article in Ecological Economics. I am helping one marae to build a “tiny forest” that will contain all the 60-odd species of the original forest some of which are browsed almost to extinction in the nearby hills. It will have a playground that tells their legends of creation and their history of settlement, and will grow their healing plants. This is truly a high-touch initiative, that will involve kids from kindergarten through university, and elderly folk like me to tell the scientific, ecological stories - and do the necessary weed-busting, oh so satisfying!.
This is beautiful Molly! I love 'Islands of coherence'- now I have to go read that article. Thank you so much for this story and its vision.
At 23 years old I am very grateful to have stumbled across your information and sense making of the complexities in our world. Around hour 1:27 - 1:35 I really appreciate the advice to young folks like myself on how to start the journey. Something clicked! And to that, thank you Daniel and Nate. What a great series you guys have put together and to speak on behalf of the young listeners…we appreciate your time and energy!
I love your comment. 23 is a good foundation to start your never ending journey to wisdom. You are resonating with the 5th dimension. The Kybalion is a helping guide. I wish you the most wonderful journey imaginable.
@@klausfaller19 What a connection. Interestingly enough, i have now picked up the Kybalion and I am resonating very much. I appreciate your kind words and coincidental timing of recommendation in the teachings. It seems you knew something! Much appreciated!
On education: I have been following Daniel since his 'Talk at Emergence' and following Nate for several years. I have used material from both of you in my teaching to 16 year olds, esp. from the Consilience project and from Reality 101. I am currently finishing a book on developing a new ecological paradigm for schools, focusing specifically on systems thinking with biophilia and ecocentrism. Daniel: 'It doesn't take many' 1:30. Exactly: the book is based on a series of case studies of ordinary teachers in a small school who blend what you call Touch with holistic, interconnected and systems thinking in small projects based on their own passions, but which, when put together, form a mosaic, an ecosystem of new thinking. This 'start anywhere, go everywhere' approach, where ultimately the stories of each project creates momentum and incentive and a new culture, is continuously growing into new stories and new capabilities, as we learn from each other. As you say Daniel, we must have both a long approach, for the reform of all schools, and an immediate response- what can each of us do now that moves us forward?
Sounds wonderful Katherine
Wow .. amazing!
Hi Katharine,
One of my best friends is currently getting his Master’s in education at Harvard, where he is focusing on how to move our current educational paradigm towards being sufficient to meeting the meta-crisis. Right now he’s writing a big paper on the erosion of teacherly authority in the Anthropocene, in which he also proposes possible remedial responses.
I suspect you two may have much of value to share with each other. Would you be interested in having a conversation with him?
Wishing you all the best, and thank you for your work!
-Bryce
You are officially cool. Respect.
@@brycelupoli7340 hi, I have tried answering twice and can't see it on this thread. Would love to be in touch with your friend.
Greetings. I just started this episode, but in it you asked for insight from the audience.
I would strongly suggest talking to widows. What made them push forward in the face of tragedy? What is their definition of resilience? Particularly those with young children.
You will not find a more resilient group of humans who can step back, assess strengths and weaknesses, sometimes for years or even seconds, to make the most of dire situations.
Also, the empathy of these women is exceptionally strong, but the practical nature of having to be both parents at once, and often bread winner can be notable.
We often overlook that after WWII, those European nations were reforged by predominantly female populations, and their children.
Good luck Nate and Daniel.
Greetings from New Mexico!
Perhaps we could hear from Daniel and Nate about existing and developing networks of people working on inner development, group sensemaking and responses to the poly-crisis . How to join such networks and how to get people to do so. I am very interested in how to be “In coordination with people that are similarly motivated but have different capabilities.”
I could use help finding people interested in applying Daniel's framing of action and decision making to localized agriculture projects and natural building.
I work with many farmers and localization food advocates, however as you discuss, there is a drive to "decide and act" and a worrisome trend to "fundamentalist" thinking. Our family farm has been dedicated to “regenerative” agriculture for 40 years. With so much discussion of agriculture’s importance moving forward, I feel we have something to offer. Lessons learned will hopefully reduce the mistakes made by past back-to-the-land movements.
Thank you, Nate and Daniel, for your hard work and clear thinking.
Thank you both so much for these amazing talks. As a 60 year old growing up in the Neoliberal order Daniel has opened my eyes to our new impending problems. Daniel, you need to write a book to package your thinking and convey it to the world. Your insights into depolarizing these big discussions is essential.
I'm in my mid-20s and for the past three years I've been working for myself, making a bit of money but gave myself time to develop, read and watch and learn about these things. But luckily (?) I've had some inheritance from my Mum who past away 10years ago so any urgent/big money needs were met by tapping into that money. My family told me to invest all that money for my future, which is good advice but I'm not intrinsically motivated that way. But also that money safety net gave me the chance to invest in myself internally and with relationships to the world, which sets me up well for the future just as much as money investments in my opinion. I'm in the position now where I can maybe make more money, invest my inheritance, and align my work with wholesome, holistic values, and continue developing myself through ecology of practices. Anyone in the London area, I'm heading over in Feb for a few years- would love to meet some of you :)
Whenever I listen to you guys I am totally taken aback by your admirable fusion of heart, soul, and mind. I am simultaneously shocked and disgusted by the sheer absence of those qualities on Capital Hill, Wall Street and Madison Avenue. Even more disturbing is the fact that "people like you" are minimized within the public discourse. It is truly heart-breaking.
Good evening Nate and Daniel.
Thankyou both for these continued shared conversations.
Think I will be interviewing for a new boss in 2023. Time for me to sack my current boss, after 17 years as a Mental Health Nurse within the NHS. Require a shiny new business model of managing ME and my associated work!
Thankyou for the brain gym.😀💜
Thanks to both of you for putting this podcast together. People are finally waking up to the "crops" we've sewn. I'd like to see more content on getting people together for action groups and the things we can do as individuals to help get back on track for living with Earth rather than just taking from Earth.
Thanks for another great video Nate!! I remember somebody told me that Tupac Shakur supposedly said "I'm not the person who will change the world, but I will spark the mind of those who will." What you do here is so important, and I believe you and the people you invite to your show will spark the mind of the people who can change the world. Thank you for what you do!
Thank you for continuing this conversation. The bit from about minute 14:50 to 22:22 is the best way I have yet heard the objection to pure utilitarian ethics expressed.
I think this is something that I would LOVE to have Daniel discuss with a proponent of EA (effective altruism) and pure rationalism, like Sam Harris, and others--who in my opinion very much care about the world but are stuck in a particular way of seeing things, that while in themselves may not be problematic--can have very problematic expressions in others, who are really lacking the bit that Daniel is looking for, in order to trust them.
Sam Harris recently had a couple podcasts where he was arguing hard for utilitarianism (mostly for his opinion that really EVERYTHING is consequentialism anyway--which I think may be technically accurate, but not a very useful observation) and at the same time you could see that he simply could not grasp how things could go so wrong with someone like Sam Bankman Fried who was also a big proponent of EA (effective altruism) but may have lacked some important other personality aspects (such as "high touch", "embodied care")
--anyway: Really great piece, and based on Nate's response we can see how this particular piece is really something people struggle with, and have different opinions about...and it seems very relevant for our current state of affairs.
Timestamps from the website!
00:40 - Daniel Schmachtenberger info + TGS episodes part 1 and part 2 and part 3 and part 4 + Overview of Nate’s story: Animated videos, Economics for the Future - Beyond the Superorganism + 3x3 Grid:
01:13 - TH-cam Video
03:04 - Long term climate geographic projection models
05:42 - Marvin Harris, Cultural Materialism
05:50 - Marx
13:52 - Warren Buffett, Steve Jobs
23:22 - War in Eastern Europe, Moving backwards on climate change
26:20 - OODA loops
37:43 - Daniel’s list of questions for how to understand a problem space and a solution space
42:55 - Richard Haass, CFR
44:55 - First Order/second order effects
46:52 - David Bohm and J. Krishnamurti
53:18 - System thinking
54:01 - Intrinsic vs extrinsic motivation
57:30 - Unexpected externalities of the smart phone
57:53 - Precautionary Principle
58:25 - Diversity of Perspective and Pluralism
1:04:12 - Rachel Carson
1:06:38 - Tragedy of the Commons
1:13:35 - Negative talk about an opponent is an effective campaign strategy
1:40:40 - Juliet Schor, The Overspent American
1:43:10 - Degrowth vs Post-growth
1:47:35 - WHO, G20
1:48:40 - Geography of the Amazon and largest threats to its existence
1:51:00 - Effects of the loss of the Amazon as hydrological pump
1:55:30 - Nelson Del Rio, Prosperity of the Commons
1:56:50 - The World Bank
2:07:00 - Leaded gasoline and its eventual outlaw
2:09:17 - Larry Lessig
1:09:55 - Rank Choice Voting, gerrymandering, campaign finance reform
2:19:02 - Tomas Bjorkman, TGS Episode
Thank you so much, man! This is such a great help, as I'll be returning to this video time and time again, for sure.
@@victorious4701 I copied it from the website since Nate didn't put it in description but did on the website! Can thank you him :)
bless you!
As Nate said "we are a tiny fraction of the intellectual discourse"... that is occurring in this nation. THAT, in itself, is the very thing that terrifies me. Objective truth has been subsumed by partisan political posturing that serves almost no-one but the participants; economic considerations are viewed in terms of quarterly profits not in terms of human equity and negative externalities; magical thinking is replacing thoughtful dialectics; and objective reality is being replaced by a kaleidoscope of unexamined "opinion". Nate, you have become an "oasis" of rational sensibility that is so sorely missing elsewhere. Thank you. Thank you.
Another thing I learned that you might be interested in Nate. Having adopted a rescue dog and gone through positive training with behavioural modification, I have learned a lot about how obedience plagues our world. With a dog who has suffered trauma, shock collars, yelling, or instilling fear do not help the animal. They have preferences and they are not "ours". Anyway I've been thinking a lot about how to get rid of obedience in culture.
I understand. And agree. Thank you
I love the reference to dogs, and also to trauma, which I think is an element of culture we haven't really discussed much. For me, of the three facets of triage, culture is paramount, since it is the ethics, values and norms of culture that drive both the economic and tech endeavors. I would like a deep discussion on how we change culture, and I suspect that part of that is also related to 'the new humans' Daniel talks about. So much trauma (and obedience) starts in education, but education is both a driver of culture and a reflection of culture. How to change the culture of education is one of my primary concerns.
Personally, Daniel & Nate, I am interested in hearing the next podcast episode on Liquid Democracy. Specifically laying out concrete ideas for Long Term, start from scratch, systems of Governance that we as a society can implement.
Also (2:17:22) who wants to coordinate on setting up a Discord for people interested in these topics?! Would help in finding mentors, Emotional SUPPORT group, and watching party 🎉
(Also so I and others can have a chance to meet/interact with Daniel, he’s so cute😊)
I'm interested in such a discord
I am a geospatial analyst invited to speak from podiums across the globe. Early on I began to interject concepts such as rivalrous dynamics and generator functions (with proper attribution to Daniel) to bring the small world into focus. I discovered Nate’s conversations a few weeks ago and queue them up for my 3-hour trail runs. I am different on a cellular level and will be a strong advocate and voice for both these conversations and the tiny blue planet. Thank you for this perfect summary episode on how to create agency no matter your particular vertical...
Yesterday, I screamed like a little girl when I saw a video that I thought was the long-awaited "Part 5". I was so sad when I realized my mistake.
But then...
Thanks for the dialogos! The complexity of the situation seems to require a level of capacity that most / all (?) don't have. We need prosthetics (tools) to help us. This time the tools are cognitive / complexity / systems tools. One such tool is AI. However, that tool alone can create unfortunate dependencies and deleterious 2nd / 3rd / ... order effects. Another tool is mental prosthetics to deal with the complexity / non-linearities of the systems we are dealing with. Simulation / modeling is one way to address this complexity. We do have ways of identifying some of the causal factors at play. However, the effects of multiple interacting causes are not obvious to most human minds. A feedback loop between us and such models may be way to upgrade our capacity to understand / deal with the overwhelming complexity of complex interacting ecologies. In particular, with something like the culture, political economy, tech stack and the different time horizons for triage, transitional, and long term responses.
Question for Daniel and Nate: do such interactive models exist? Are you developing them? Are they open source? Thanks!!!
Nate: this was a great conclusion to your bend not break dialog..I really appreciate the way Daniel grids out a thought / action mechanism using easy to understand examples that can apply to any number of threats that ultimately have to be dealt with, either in a long term plan format or crisis...Im starting to believe most all threats will ending in crisis failures...Question is, which handfuls of threats cannot wait for a crisis management situation for world ecological survival with human coexistence?
Yeah. I guess I really have to embody the perspective that you must push in the right direction no matter the result, as mentioned previously. Because hearing the ways of change, the pace seems just impossibly slow. Like I discussed environmental issues and the progress with somebody working in a NGO trying to change laws and work in the whole EU context and really, it takes like years and years to just explain to the farmers that they should not splash all the chemicals into water streams but actually leave a zone of protection between the field and the water stream. This is just such a bloody triviality compared to what we are discussing, and it takes years!!! Anyway, this is the context what we are all facing and have to handle, I guess...
Thank you so much for the series so far in any case.
Thanks for this. One thing I am struggling with is whether all the talk of how to “make changes at scale” makes sense when so many of the systemic problems involve people controlling and affecting each other from afar. There’s a presumptuousness to thinking “I should be the one whose views have far-flung effects.” I say this as someone who spent years on Wall Street, then years as a climate and social activist, in both cases hoping to have positive global impact. I now just volunteer at local food pantries, and at some level feel that I’ve “given up” on trying to fix the world. But I also think that we should live in a world where everyone’s impacts are as local (and therefore as understandable and responsible) as possible, so why should I be an exception to that by trying to “make changes at scale”?
I think both "changes at scale" and "acting locally" are essential. If we just give up on the large scale international work, everything will fall apart, hard. And we need resilient local communities to get through all this. Humility is important, whatever we're doing. Different people will work on different things, and people should work on whatever level of change matches their interests and abilities. Thanks for the work you have done, and are doing now.
Thank you for all these videos. I saved them on my website so that I can study them. Round 2 - Time to go back to video 1 and listen and take note.
Hey Nate and Daniel, thanks for your offerings about the interplay of culture and nature. We need to address many things and we also need to have laser focus on the main drivers of socio-environmental harms, e.g. economic constructs on which many human behaviours and culture is reliant. I suggest chatting with Erik Olin Wright (sociologist) about some of the topics raised in the podcast and other podcasts. Also, chat with Douglas B Holt (cultural brand specialist) and the social scientists that came up with Terror Management Theory. Terror management theory was first proposed by Jeff Greenberg, Tom Pyszczynski, and Sheldon Solomon in 1986 and has the potential to unlock some core aspects of what drives societies and individuals to invent narratives that provide a sense of eternal life to stave off life and death anxieties. A relevant example of this would be the economic construct of eternal economic growth.
I haven't watched this series yet, but this episode popped up on my feed and I got completely sidetracked by reading the wonderful comments!❤
Heck yeah! Love Daniel's discussions and macro synthesis!
I'd like to hear more on how to possibly dispell the fascism/authoritarianism arising from the resource shortages. War is so wasteful in every way, we have to break that social tendency (mythos) to need a hero.
Thanks for the conversations gentelmen. I am not a great talker but i strive to listen to people who make sense, and share tid bits to others in my smalll community. Just do what we can do
Well listening to you both have made me lose weight. Being aware of energy and neuroscience has helped me become more aware. A huge scale level of consciousness change has to occur and it’s happening, slowly but it’s happening.
I have never listened so deeply with Nate Art Berman Daniel Schmachtenberger Simon Michaux Daniel Pauly and All! As we can try to prepare for an interesting challenging Future Blessings to all Living things 🐝🦀🐋🕊🦍🐄🌳👩🏽🌏🙏🏼❤️
🌳
We need you & alike on mainstream TV & radio every few days of the week.....that would help enormously....
Thanks
"The chief cause of problems is solutions." - Eric Sevareid
That's a hilarious quote.
Thank you, Nate, for doing such an insightful podcast! Much love from Austria.
Thanks to both of you. I watched all 5 episodes in record time, as I couldn´t stop listening.. Very gratefull for helping me understand how all the pieces fit together and help build informed strategies. I would love to hear about your thoughts on civil disobedience as a possible strategy for the short term real urgent problems. I think this is important because a significant percentage of e.g. climate activists are in this category and they have some of the important characteristics you identified as strategic, also a lot of young people there and increasingly scientists, so improving strategy in civil desobedience could be very beneficial. I also consistently miss the social justice perspective in your analysis of the Great Simplification and Metacrisis. Thanks again, looking forward to hearing more.
Great conversation about a matrix and talk about laying out strategy as Triage, Transitional and Long Term Solutions, but did anyone write this down and make it into actionable plans? What are next steps? Who is going to take specific action? I feel like we just came out of another meeting where no one will publish minutes and no assignments were made, and no one will be accountable to getting anything done.
Let's team up the thinkers with the doers and let's get something done! I understand we don't have the map figured out for the long term solutions. But, surely there are triage things that just need to get done ASAP or the long term solutions won't even be an option.
So, by all means, let's not call this the end of the dialog, let's keep the dialog going with specific actionable steps that Daniel said he'd like to offer to this group.
My man Dan. Are you going to write a book or anything? This content needs to be heard and digested by everyone.
In part #4, the set of [hyper-agents, institutions, egregores] was briefly mentioned at the end. I would be curious to hear about how this set of active and passive agents intersects with the grid discussed in this episode of {[triage, transition, long term] x [culture, political economy, infrastructure tech stack]}
Nate says, "One of the reasons you are not being more effective globally is because you can't say no to helping people." (20:03) I feel a number of things should be considered. In addition to that guidance of making the right choice, by being available, Daniel inspires many people to go that little bit further. I expect it also helps Daniel himself stay grounded.
Been looking forward to this since part 4! So excited to hear it!!!
I so align with all that both of you say in this series, and I still see a different and essential dimension.
Daniel uses the example of cancer, as a demonstration of what happens when cooperation breaks down. It is a good example (one I have learned a little about in the 13 years since being declare terminal cancer by our medical system, and sent home to die), but two essential aspects of it were not explicitly stated.
Cancer happens when the growth inhibition, that comes from cells in the cooperative communicating properly with their neighbours and the wider cooperative, breaks down. When that happens, cells revert to the older non-cooperative behaviour, and all the complexity that the cooperation made possible is lost.
Two key messages in that which are fundamental to understanding how complexity evolves and survives:
1/ Cooperation is fundamental to the emergence and survival of all levels of complexity. If it is lost, then that level of complexity fails - inevitably.
2/ Accurate communication is fundamental to maintaining cooperation (all levels, all domains).
Those fundamentals recurs through all levels of complexity.
The insanely over simplistic notion that evolution is all about competition is simply wrong - and the wrongness of it holds existential level risk.
If cooperation is to survive, then cheating must be mitigated, and that means punished (all levels, all domains). And that punishment needs to be enough to remove all benefits gained by cheating, plus a little bit. Current legal systems fail to do this.
All the problems you both speak of, and all the complexity you mention, are part of it, and they are symptoms of levels of failure of cooperation. Perhaps the biggest being the idea that competitive markets can solve all problems. That idea is not simply wrong, it is a total inversion of reality. It is wrong in all dimensions imaginable.
I love your work Nate, but I hate the name "The Great Simplification".
One of the biggest problems we have is recursive attempts to over simplify the irreducibly complex.
We need to accept the complexity, accept our eternal and profound ignorance, and only then do forms of useful simplifications present themselves. But those simplifications have to be consciously and knowingly built upon the irreducibly complex.
And I know our brains have multiple sets of systems predisposing us to various level of simplicity, and they are necessary in some contexts, and dangerous in others.
Keep up the great work guys - loved listening to you both.
Thank you both very much for sharing your brilliance. It changes my thinking and the way I discuss these issues with others.
Thank you for this series!
This episode really made me reflect on me not having a core ex-risk issue, that I truly care about. I am more in a preper mindset, trying to understand the risk landscape and which ones I can prepare myself and mine. One core work would be community building, trying to find and connect active motivated people, that I can rely on in case of need. Basically it is private event organizing, so these people can meet and build relationships. In our highly individualized world, that is more of a challenge than I expected.
My question for a follow up Q&A episode: How do you see the role of generalists in the transition period? After all jack of all trades is a master of none.
I have lived through 80 years on this amazing planet and from a time where we grew what we ate or we didn’t eat and we made what we wore or we wore rags and etc…..we were taught that everything we put into our bodies had an effect. It is the same with our planet. Physical externalities ….
Thanks for the good discussion.
+1 for an episode on discerete examples in the 3x3 grid
In Holistic Management, the interested parties first define the context of life they want to achieve. (please check Allan Savory; he came to similar conclusions as Daniel a long time ago). It gives a common and federating social, environmental, familial, individual, and financial framework against which checking potential solutions and then their eventual unexpected consequences. This can be applied at the individual, family, city, national level. It is amazing how opposite factions can come to common solutions when there is a well defined common goal.
Fantastic. Thank you guys. I’ll have to listen to this whole series a couple more times to really grasp everything. These conversations are so rich and so informative. Thank you both for guiding those of us who want to help. ❤
.Nate, you are probably more "grounded" than anyone I have ever heard. I am 73, your "elder", so believe me when I say that you are a hundred years more psychologically mature than most of the people who run this country. You think and you care deeply. They don't.
Thank you both for this series and this episode
Could you guys talk about the viability of planning for futures that include AI and other high-tech components with the coming simplification in available energy and mineral resources? It seems to me that the call for things like internet democracy, AI tutors in education etc. also require substantially greater natural resources, and considering biophysical constraints that Nate talks about with things like oil and lithium, this vision might have significant difficulties.
I am not expert in AI or energy so it's probably unwise to open my mouth. With that caveat: I'm unclear how using AI tutors (one example) would necessarily increase our energy demand given that everyone is already glued to a screen. It's simply trading out Tictoc and video games for AI tutoring. What am I missing? Perhaps I don't understand the question. Is there a higher energy demand for AI than youtube? If I sound like a fool please be gentle ;)
Yes. Most that text is fanciful "Techno-optimism" that will never be scalably realized.
Agree with Daniel that this feels like the completion of a series, both in terms of your discussions with him and in terms of the podcast as a whole. It does feel like the first season has been focused more on "where we are" and "triage" and very little long-term thinking. It might be interesting to go into deep-dives on specific topics with trios of people thinking about short-medium-longterm solutions in a particular realm, and it might be easier for you if you choose a topic and a person and tell them to bring the other two people along. It would be great if you could do maybe two totally opposite views on the same problem (two sets of three people, separate podcasts, a week apart). Would love to see a lot more voices from the global south, younger people, some not-so-academic approaches, more female voices, and honestly people a little less pessimistic. In this episode you admit your bias towards triage and you also have your own way of thinking about the solution which seems to have skewed the types of people you invite towards a particular direction. This would spice things up a bit, because the format is starting to feel a bit stagnant.
The final instalment. Gasp. Is was mourning the end of this series a couple minutes in. Then thankfully 40 minutes in you were already quipping about the introduction to episode 7. There is hope yet.
The advice to get your overheads down to as little as possible so that you can focus on what part you are playing...brilliant. (been living in a 18m3 truck with solar panels and a wood stove on and off for the last 20 years) You get so much more done outside when inside is small and easy to maintain. Even had kids (got a house for a bit to do that) but back to trucks again now. The kids have grown up in trucks and wagons, now teens they have each their own wagon, wood stove, kitchen and panels. In the end the best thing I have done is transmit this simple way of life to three members of the next generation. It isn't even socially hard anymore because the people with houses and new cars and central heating are all so miserable.
Nate, I cannot express how grateful I am for the critical work you are doing. I have secretly been collecting survival books to leave my family. Would you have a recommendation of physical books we can buy as guides for our families and those left behind in the changes destined to come forth. It seems to me that one critial solution is reducing our numbers by having just one child if any. I so look forward to conitnue to listen to your discussions to a path forward. Whatever secret think tanks exist on these topics they aren't openly sharing ideas with us. The most meaningful thing I can do for my personal family is to leave behind my library with things that will help them psychologically cope with inevitability. Thank you for your service, a brother in spirit.
Great series, I am watching all of them.. I would very much like one where you discuss “What does a governance system that is adequate to the complexity of the issues look like”. And I love the expression Gaia Speed. Thank you both.
My 4 Strategies for the oncoming crises.
1: Sustainable Hedonism
Enjoy the ride
2.:Protect yourself & loved ones
Prepping, mitigating dependence
3: Create or join a resilient & sustainable community
Lead by example
4: Fight
Join the global battle combatting these crises.
Or some combination of all 4 at once.
My question that I think is worthwhile to cover on a future episode is the feasibility of planning for visions of the future that incorporate digital technologies i.e. forms of digital democracy, AI in healthcare etc. considering the coming shortages of oil and some rare metals that would be needed to support the physical infrastructure of these technologies. Is this digital, or as Schmactenberger refers to it, exponential tech vision of the future commensurate with the vision of the great simplification?
Great conversation you two. It's given me much needed hope.
A thousand bows precious souls. Daniel your a beautiful example
Thank you so much both of you for this fantastic and highly illuminating series. Yes, please can we have another podcast or gathering online to examine further examples of current triage issues and how to work with them.
I used to work for a soil conservation district. One of our big pushes was no-till farming to prevent soil erosion and reduce siltation of salmon streams. The trade-off was, farmers had to use more glyphosate to eliminate weeds that would come up if they didn’t till. At the time, the literature claimed that glyphosate was relatively harmless and had a short lifespan, but now, 20 years later, we learn that it’s a huge carcinogen. Big surprise! I am left wondering, however, if the conservation district is still supporting no-till because it’s better than the alternative?
Wonderful conversation, thanks for this Nate & Daniel! I like how Daniel is putting a focus on the 'process' towards solutions, so how to relate to them, instead of a list of 'solutions', although I sense they are equally valuable). And the mention of an Academy is super-interesting too. Looking forward to the Summit in 2023! 😎👏
His voice and his calm matter of fact way of speaking is so science fiction. Somewhere between Dick and Clarke, I feel like I'm listening to the 2nd or 3rd chapter that is there to describe the arc of how humans got from the present to the futur. Daniel will be iconic to futur humans like Sun Mi in the cloud atlas.
I am definitely part of the scout team of Consilience Jedi - where we must understand all about trade offs and paralogical thinking.
Question for Daniel and Nate: There is a German author called Ulrike Herrmann that recently argued in a book ("the end of capitalism") that the british war economy could be an inspiration for a degrowth path to a circular economy. What is your opinion on that?
2. How to balance urgency with the potential radicalization of opposing views? The meta crisis seems overwhelming mostly because little time remains for major aspects of it to be dealt with in a responsible way. How to avoid walking into chaos while trying "to be nice"?
I see this a lot I’m entrepreneurship. “I have a great idea.” Now let me find a problem to attach it to. Vs fully understanding the problem and the different lenses of interpretation.
You have any ideas on which part of this problem space has the best opportunity for solutions & entrepreneurship?
The blessing of getting the sword that cuts into one so compassionately tears of understanding shredding through a thousand hearts with in... one...the soft stillness of a break in insanity to the truth of peace
This conversation was fantastic, and it's the first time that I've heard Daniel map his solutions oriented framework with this level of detail which was enlightening to say the least.
Question: What are some tools, books or people to learn more from in terms of Systemic Thinking that any of you would recommend to anybody committed to learn more about these subjects?
I dont have the link on hand but I recently stumbled on a Goodreads reading list of Daniel's.
I had a glance through, and I think you will find some helpful material in there, Arturo.
Very few people understand dynamic complexity, and even when you do, you still have to make choices to do something or just sit back and watch.
Excellent series so far guys! Nate, I know you briefly mentioned “blockchain” and I would be very curious to hear your thoughts on the space.
Personally, I see Bitcoin, being a decentralized, absolutely scarce money, as a potential response to the dynamics of a debt-based, politicized monetary system.
Would love to hear how you have contended with the subject, and I think you might resonate with the work of Margo Paez of the Bitcoin Policy Institute who has written on the topic of “the degrowth of Bitcoin”.
Personally I am highly skeptical of applications like “supply chain monitoring” or “your mortgage on the blockchain” and have found myself gravitating toward the potential for a sound monetary system outside free from manipulation and perverse incentives.
Cheers, and again, great talk. Keep up the good work fellas!
One problem with Bitcoin is the massive amount of energy used to mine them. Seeds is a cool regenerative crypto project I'd recommend checking out
I imagine that the energy cliff will pose a specific challenge to bitcoin that other systems may not face, due to its high and increasing energy expenditure per transaction, aside from any mining energy cost. As I understand it, a gold coin, once mined and forged into a coin, costs nothing in energy to transfer to someone else, except that required to carry it. Conversely bitcoin, without a significant redesign, would eventually get too energy-expensive to spend any of it due to the increasing size and complexity of the ledgers. If this is the case, I would expect to see more low-energy solutions like local currencies and labour barter systems to spring up in the event of an unplanned simplification.
There may be some scope for a low-energy version of crypto, but legacy bitcoin seems an increasingly unlikely choice at the moment. Aside from any energy concerns, CBDC is trying hard to muscle in on the crypto market with the added security of having taxpayer-backing, the potential for more stable prices for easier use as a currency, with a lower energy cost per transaction and side benefits for control-minded govts. Due to superorganism behaviours, these CDBCs may get harder to avoid over time, particularly as the fiats start to flounder more significantly. The incentives will be stacked towards encouraging their adoption. Those who don't participate in CBDC will likely find it increasingly difficult to participate in other aspects of society successfully. By which point, having established local currencies and barter systems will become all the more important for those seeking a decentralised local alternative. Crypto may be part of that future, but reigning in energy expectations for currency creation and transactions seems sensible. Perhaps essential, if bitcoin is to evolve and survive.
Concilience Jedi! My dream job 🤩 This episode is gold, this series is platinum. I'm going to get therapy :)
My birthday🎉 Happy 420... Started with a BANG! HA! 🔥
I think that Syntropy (also called negentropy) is the Third Attractor Daniel has been seeking. From the perspective of complex systems, industrial civilization is based on entropic technology and social-economics. This includes competition, concentrated entropic power, and expanding capacity for destruction - including killing/controlling living things.
Any living planet will need a certain amount of entropic power. Our biosphere needs sufficient atmospheric CO2 to maintain a biophilic temperature range and prevent another "snowball Earth". This REQUIRES the recycling plant biomass. This is the essential role of all the consumer species (the animals and fungi), including primates like us. We also help to redistribute water, essential nutrients, plant seeds and pollen. Over time, entropic organisms have become woven into the syntropic web-of-life. Beyond enhanced thermoregulation, we have made essential contributions to the intelligence, beauty, complexity, stability and resilience of our living planetary system... until recent advent of entropic Civilization.
Modern humans have become hyper-entropic consumers. Starting with stone blades and spears, we have gathered ever-greater capacity to direct focused energy in order to break things apart. All measures of our capacity for entropic power have shown that it has grown exponentially. It has also involved the ability to manipulate energy, materials and information in order to control others. The entropic path of power and control embodies typically masculine values of competition, hierarchy, force and aggression (enmity, us-them, win-lose). This contrasts with the more cooperative, nurturing, feminine power of syntropy, in which information, energy and materials are freely distributed and shared in equitable cycles of reciprocity (love, togetherness, win-win).
There are reasons for the dominance of entropic power in recent planetary history. From Friston's Free Energy Principle, complex systems experience stress when predictions of what will happen turn out to be false - what he calls "surprisal". This is consistent with Shannon's description of information. For humans, this is why we experience discomfort when our expectations, desires and beliefs conflict with the reality of the world around us.
According to Friston, systems can use two strategies to resolve this stress and discomfort (and there may be others). One strategy employs external power and control to change the environment by forcing it to conform to how our minds expect it to be. To satisfy our wants and desires. This is the entropic path at the heart of industrial-technologic consumption. It provides quick and easy pleasure-reward to our consumer (animal) brains, but requires constant use of external power and control to be maintained. When it conflicts with the wider system (the planetary biosphere), it inevitably generates unexpected problems, externalities, resistances, degradations, disappointments and endless struggle - aka the metacrisis. Thus, it is a false solution once it expands beyond our limited physical needs into the realm of endless socio-psychological wants and desires.
Alternatively, in the face of unpleasant "surprisal", we can instead adapt/improve our internal predictive model of the wider-system around us. This involves expanding awareness and understanding of reality (aka the socio-biosphere) in order to better adapt ourselves to the whole AS IT IS. This is a proper solution. It characterizes many healthy philosophies and spiritual traditions, and while it takes time and effort to employ, it yields sustainable success with unexpected opportunities and deep satisfactions. This is the syntropic path of internal power, wisdom, beauty, self-control, love and contentment.
This is the Third Attractor.
See: th-cam.com/video/-Wn_l7W4DNU/w-d-xo.html
It’s BOTH AND ❤
Daniel said: ""The answer to all the problems is all of the solutions." But "all the problems" are effects that have causes. Indeed, there are a chain of causes for each problem. And all the chains lead back to a fundamental cause. That fundamental cause is the belief that happiness is dependent on material, social, or spiritual gain. That belief is an illusion because happiness is innate, i.e it is not dependent on gain. So let's remove the illusion.
At this point, Daniel would say that's a reductionistic analysis. He might say that someone in a poor country will cut down trees in the Amazon because he needs to feed his kids, so it's about survival, not happiness. But the people employing him to cut down the trees are already rich. The people buying the trees are already rich. It is those people who need to see that their own happiness is not dependent on gain. And it is the belief in gain that stops the rich people from addressing the survival issues of the poor people.
Daniel would then say that someone else will buy the trees, which is the game theory trap. But in the same way that Daniel is willing to work on multiple fronts to deploy "all of the solutions", we can work on all the fundamental illusion (mentioned above) in all the prospective tree buyers. If we don't cure the disease, the symptoms will keep appearing.
Nate needed to listen to 1-4 before recording 5 hehe. 😂 He's wondering why its taking so long to get through this series, bless his heart.
It does take a while to get, and even though Daniel is an amazing teacher, it may take a couple rounds to understand, Nate.
Finally someone who makes sense . fucking luv ya man
Question 1: How can we collectively discover the critical system leverage points to create 'islands of coherance' both in Triage and Transition actions? and How do we know we have correctly identified these leverage points? (Both as individuals and as a collective)
Question 2: It seems we need a coalition of civil organisations to form enough political power to act effectively. The history of this is frought with infiltration and co-copting by established systems and corruption is there a solution to this? (in short how do we prevent the system from swollowing efforts to change it. )
Question 3: Is there a literature or educational source for creating more consilience and coherance in groups and organisation in the short term (aside from therapy and trauma healing)? Organisational Splintering or break-down into Authoritarianism is unfortunately the norm with many groups.
New Daniel 😍
The intentional dissolution of America's Education System has had the most corrosive force in our history. We now live in a nation of consumer "digits" operated by college-trained (not educated) "widgets". Wisdom has been replaced by economic expediency and mindless political subservience. Orwell and Bradbury were prescient.
1/ Could you give advice on how to jungle between the necessity of travel (over long distances, often in plane) for those setting the foundations of change and the necessity to walk the walk regarding GHGs emissions.
( to reformulate : going to the Cop27 in private jets isn’t a problem if the impact you have there is worth it. If it doesn’t, it makes you part of the problem, whether you’re well intentioned or not : how to measure such an impact ? )
2/ What would be the Triage/Transition/Long-term landscape for the conflicting military forces ? ( To reformulate : what end-point can we aim at regarding law-enforcement and states rivalry - as much nation states as future network states. Consciousness will fragment itself anyway, even if only for rogue individuals : how to answer to that in a non-fragmented way ? /// Is transition even possible there ? It seems to be such a frigid system. Can it be changed from the interior ? And if not, how to « skip » the transitional phase when a system cannot allow it ? And without waiting for the collapse ! )
Thanks a lot for what you guys are doing 🙏
A beacon of radical hope in oceans of bullshit !
The historical reality that defines one of civilization's basic evolutionary imperatives or the will to power or the perceived necessity to war against the less fit (to get more or merely only enough in epochs where resources were quite scarce) or to meet the clear and present threat with as much brute force as is available seems like it would be a bridge too far to dial back from where we are today (and in the past as well) with sociopathic elites having all the advantages to maintain their megalomaniacal grip on dysfunctional governance with no intention to loosen such. Their tendency in this regard has never been different. Indeed, this human proclivity is primordial as well as modern. Hence, a functionally cooperative society appears nowhere in sight or on the horizon anytime soon. Therefore, as collapse ensues along with The Great Culling as an obvious parallel to The Great Simplification, what are three basic salient questions that the rising generations should be exploring to enable these and subsequent generations to find their own paths to thriving amidst such upheaval and through the next transition which is already here? This meta-question posits the requirement to pass on inherent "answers" for at least several centuries of civilizational breakdown with the objective being to facilitate the creation of an adopted reconfigured arrangement within a more natural habitat that creates intergenerational sustainability without voracious elites to again begin anew to rape the planet and ruin everything like they have always done in concert with the acquiescence of the masses. Run-on sentences are not ideal but in this case, these above ironically attempt to concisely AND comprehensively give context to any proposal for answering or modifying the meta-question in order to approach addressing its aim of arming subsequent generations with wisdom from generations who haven't exactly prepared them for what they need to do which is: redo civilization so their future generations may flourish and not be failed by them as we and those before us have done.
Not enough big words for me to read. Please add like 37 more and tag me when you do.
Also, too many periods. It's almost there, but not quite run-onny enough.
If I had one criticism of these astute conversations it would be that the Great Culling seems to be intentionally avoided. Did I miss something?
@@treefrog3349 No you did not miss it. This is the topic, and a compelling one, that you will not hear but as Nate might say, frankly, at an additional one million more people ever 4.5 days it would seem there might be a least a nod in listing that as the ultimate factor affecting all things. It is difficult to imagine any solutions that can offset the impact of this population gain.
Thank you for this surf in the 5th dimension. . Nate Daniel I am returning the Love I have received from you.
Change in a lower dimension can only happen by changing the base law formulas. The self-destructive equation of TIME =MONEY has to be changed to TIME=LOVE. Time is actually the Gift of live. Human is the applicator.> (free Will) In the present time can't exist.>(pure Love) With the new formula in place, words like spend, waste, save, gain, would change to apply, enjoy, dedicate, cherish. I have all the time in the World and say Time to you ALL
My Question: Would you please explore with Daniel why he see's the transmutation of high touch empathetic relations as the only viable way forward? Why does he discount the scaling and convergence of other incentive structures/ developmental strategies? What are your own thoughts on these topics Nate?
it has to be generational, we have to focus in young minds trough out strategies that can plant the seeds so they can act naturally, i'm testing a module in an entire city focused on the plastic pollution problem.
Sorry for all the comments - I was just cringing at all the winding, stalling, and lack of effectual description. Still didn't see much "utility" in what Daniel says here. Daniel is great - just being honest. Hopefully my outline will help others who watch this. Worth it - even if it's only one person.
Integrative. Everything is connected.
So a nearby star isn't collapsing and it's not gonna drastically effect our atmosphere and realities? Damn, I wish it were so simple.
Teach recipes for smog purging with holistic wraps (models and methods), drop notions of racketeering and try notice the lever mechanism of the superorganism... and stop poking at the embryo wall when the answer is not yet apparent. Obviously this video was a hard one to grasp. Ok I'll probably rewatch in 4 month if I don't fully understand it now. Have a great Xmas Daniel! Thank you Nate.
It is difficult to know where you can make a difference and where you can't. There is an old slogan: No good deed goes unpunished. There are "need" people eager to take advantage of your empathy.
Since everyone still has to make a living, how can self-development, therapy and opportunities to contribute to effective solutions become more economical/available? How can real communities (not just virtual online ones) reduce the "cost" of living, provide more opportunity to contribute to solutions and learn how to do so effectively and reduce the monetary/time cost of therapy? The weight of these responsibilities is massive for an individual so few manage it. What is needed for communities to share this burden and channel energy in service of life rather than fight for the dollars that are worth less and less everyday?
Love you guys. ✌🏻⭐️👏🏻
In Bend not Break part 4, there was much discussion of multipolar traps, but none in part 5. It seems that multipolar traps trickle down from the global failure of governance. As long as there is no international deterrent to exploiting fossil hydrocarbons, there will be international pressure to do just that. And as long as that international pressure exists, there will be national pressure to do so for all nations that feel international pressure. And as long as national pressure exists, market pressure will continue, keeping us locked in the self-terminating game of exponential growth. Nate and Daniel, can you please give us any hope of how international deterrence could ever come to pass, in order to stop the cascading perverse incentives? Thank you so much for all your research and education!
I really enjoyed this series. I note a common criticism is that it is a bit rambling and unstructured with many asides. It would be great to find a way to collate all of these ideas into a more logical structure. Its a bit of a superorganism itself.
How about a book, or even a structured course?
At 2:08:18 , you say it would be good to talk about the different governance systems. I recommend you talk to Michael Albert about Participatory Economics, or Robin Hahnel about the addition of cybernetic planning.
So many good comments already. First, thanks for your work. Have enjoyed all 5 of this series & am almost caught up listening to all of the Great Simplification podcast episodes.
Just wanted to add that my thoughts align with several of the other regenerative ag/holistic management/permaculture practitioners & thinkers that are following your work.
Wondering if there could be an episode that looks at the 3X3 grid and how individual farmers/ranchers could network from the bottom up to effect change. I understand that there are already lots of NGOs - would just really appreciate the insights that would flow from a Nate and Daniel discussion on this issue because I am wondering if creating regional food, fiber, & shelter materials networks could significantly contribute to the "soft landing" or "bending not breaking".
Having tried to work within State & Federal bureaucracies to advance some of these ideas, I share the concern others have expressed that we won't get there fast enough, and my anxiety revolves around the thought that we need some way to accelerate transition. It is hard even to bring ideas to existing NGOs sometimes - it seems we all tend to get set in our ways. Perhaps the networking ideas are key.?.
Anyway; would really appreciate a Nate-Daniel discussion around the thought of regenerative farm, bottom-up networks ability to accelerate our collective ability to bend, not break and how to help thriving networks form and keep thriving.
Here's a project that could provide inspiration to other parts of the country. 2020 intro: th-cam.com/video/y-nI1JMePmw/w-d-xo.html
2021 update: th-cam.com/video/bi18UaExQLQ/w-d-xo.html
David Holmgren's Future Scenarios work would fall under this thread of thinking as well.
38:10 Nate, you nailed it. This is exactly why we need to do away with this insanely unnatural subjective medium of valuation exchange and base our economy on spatial, temporal, energetic, and material valuation - subjective sentimentality aside.
The single most problematic aspect to our current economic paradigm is the idea that value is subjective. It is NOT!
Please interview the Prosocialise Foundation. They have a specific method, a list of specific actions anyone can follow to bring about the transition. Simplified it involves fostering mutual aid and calling to end the need to earn a living but there is much more information for people to know how to do this. 1) advocate mutual aid 2) organize Free Collaboration Networks that meet needs for free 3) teach people to meet be leaders in fostering mutual aid in their cities and on line.
We got this.
Thank you Nate And Daniel. I only hope that enough people are exposed to this and the wisdom of Wm. Rees and Simon Michaux so that we can begib the degrowth that will be necessary to save our home planet before it is too late.
An 86 year old engineer.