Swap is the future. Nio is building so many swaps so that there will come a point that no one else can enter the market on it. Ev companies will be like man swaps such a good idea but there will be no point to even try because Nio already has 10k swap stations. Based on your video not everyone understands that but I’ll tell you who does. The market makers and manipulators of the stock! Nio power will be bigger than Nio itself. Once it gets going and more and more brands join do you know how revenue that will be? Nio will probably pay dividends per share!
Yep you are looking at the company in isolation. Hence the build out of swap network doesn't make sense with the projected deliveries under NIO group... but you can try to think about the build out in relation to ALL battery swappable cars in the next few years.
Exactly my point 👉. This is waaayyyyy over most people's head and they don't understand that NIO has been chosen as a public utility or energy company by the government. Hence why William Li meets with President's of countries. This is an ENERGY war going on between the West and East. Xpeng, Li auto and others are not even in the same category.
Bro people complained for more years why Tesla needed to build charging infrastructure... now they see we don't have enough and actually we NEED swap technology here in the USA.
Swap station is infrastructure, and who rules the infrastructure, rules the Market, when infrastructure is built out who cars are you think people are going to buy? A car that can swap, then company’s like Tesla , BYD, will either start to fail or they will have to join battery swap because we will already have the infrastructure that people want. And when that happens you better have the infrastructure to maintain those vehicles, that BYD, and Tesla makes. It’s a process so be patient, it will payoff in due time.
Weren't the battery swap partners supposed to finance the buildout? That's what they said at least in the last few earnings calls iirc and hence the capex would be much lower? They did slow down on battery swap station buildout the first two quarters of this year and said that they would ramp it up in the last two quarters of the year, but miss on the goal of getting 1000 swap stations. I assumed it's because of the transition to gen4 and securing funds from partners. This upcoming earnings report should hopefully shed some light on this.
In my next video in will try to dig out more info on how these partnerships work but I have a hard time seeing it being to the extent that it will at the current stage affect the companies finances to a degree that will severely cut the losses. I hope to be wrong. Hopefully there will be more details on the earnings. Thanks for the comment.:)
I very much agree, market cannot be stupid for years on end while the likes of Xpeng seem to get rewarded the moment the show momentum in getting to profitability.
The drop was across all HK, not just NIO. NIO 3000 is because they are going for high margin thus less incentives on premium. Also, first week was not much high last month. Onvo is not in the numbers, which is why when you add all the insurance numbers from Oct it was much lower than the total NIO sales.
Thank you for doing a structured analysis. Generally, I agree. The lack of transparency and communication from CEO on this is also a related issue. Still, if Onvo only cannibalise 1K NIO a month, and we eventually will sell 20K+ Onvo, it looks ok. (This could be the case looking at things right now)
Also some money may be made trading power with the grid. And each swap station is promoting the cars. Then again, so would profitability.. I have been barking about this in every channel / thread. Time IS on our side as consumers will find out about limited battery life in practice. As long as CEO does not burn all the money on pet projects before then.
I tend to agree. The swap build out is too aggressive. Whenever I hear they’re going to build out 1000 new stations or some other massive number, it concerns me. And perhaps there is a fundamental reason, but the company has not made it clear to the investors why the station build out has to be so fast. I think they should be slowing the build out by about 33%. This would save HUGE amounts and enable massive uptick in stock, and they could the man raise at a way better valuation to help them accelerate the swap build out in a year or two. This would be much better. Anyhow. Solid video.
Because around 10+ car companies have joined the alliances and are on the road to deliver vehicles which can swap their batteries in 2025，not mentioning Onvo which has skyrocketed sales. You'll see the return next year.
Nio has 3000 weekly insurance registrations last week. They should give up building cars & just build swap stations 😂 If onvo doesn’t deliver close to 10,000 in December Nio is toast
I think they build battery swapping infrastructure so aggressively, because NIO partners (who produce several million vehicles) will start releasing their new vehicle models with support of NIO battery swapping technology. ONVO is ramping up etc. there will be an explosion in demand of swap stations.
the problem with swap battery , it is go littel attractiv with the time , the battery charging speed go to 10 minute in future , but maybe long term for swaping , that the battery long life time is the stable is very competetiv but the people need long time to realise that
Thanks for interesting comment. In regards to ONVO I think there is good and bad about the different naming and brand. They can now have different pricing structures and profiles which would be more difficult without the subbrand.
I hope not my friend, I believe in Nio but i hoped for the management to try to understand the reality of this situation from perspective of shareholders. A lot of other companies seem to be able to gear up deliveries without swap stations.
You have every right to be concern. Something is definitely wrong. NIO valuation reflects the low probability of success. The market does know this. It is loosing the most money of all the Chinese EV manufacturers. If Onvo doesn't hit its sales target NIO will go bankrupt. Unfortunately, I'm too upside down to sell. Otherwise I would be out.
Dude you have no clue. Get this through your head: Nio is an energy infrastructure company first and a car producing company second. Nio is not digging for the gold like all other EV players, but Nio is handing out the shovels.
Having swap station's before cars is important. Imagine promoting swapping with little to nowhere to swap??? Now sell the car's. One new out three more next year. LFG
I agree on the importance of swap stations I never said it’s a bad idea long term but I think the extent to which they are expanding is hurting the company in the long term. Thanks for your comment :)
@UrAverageInvestor. What about the partnerships also dropping their first swappable car's next year too? But maybe their plan is too long term for some. I'm sure there's room here for short term trades as well.
@@UrAverageInvestor.It's not hurting the "company"... it's hurting the share price, I agree. But it's TEMPORARY... the company isn't going out of business. Your frustrated because most American companies are having a party that NIO has not been invited to lol 😅. It sucks but it doesn't change what Amazon, Tesla and NIO and other big companies have all had to go through.
I respect your view and will do more research but I honestly believe the pace of swap buildup is affecting the companies net loss substantially tbh. Thanks for your comment! :)
Nio will make money from the swap and charging station. They gatta keep building to stay ahead of the competition, if another company want to compete they gatta build their own infrastructure which cost billions.
I agree with that sentiment but since the valuation is so low I think it makes more sense to be more dynamic and slowdown the expansion of swap station until we see much more utilization per station and give a few Q the possibility to not have as much bleed as they do right now. My biggest fear is yet another dilution to the stock.
Crazy 🤪 to sell NIO. You should be BUYING. The whole point is to buy low and sell high. This is when you BUY. It's a no-brainer. The reason you don't know WHY they need the swap stations is because you don't live in China. It's to balance the grid, bro. BUT to your point, they have slowed down building swap stations and acquired partners to help build more. For example, the Southern China Power grid. It doesn't make sense to you because you're not factoring in all the companies that have signed on for battery swap. Yes, I know, it sucks when you see Tesla flying high and you know NIO is the better company. There is a BIG reason for the West to slow NIO down. They are the most advanced. 21,000 at $5.70 average
You sound scared and should sell.....if it went down more will add. What is your time frame? 2-3 months or 2-3 years? You are really clueless.... So where would gas auto's be if there were no new gas stations.
PLEASE DONT SELL YOUR NIO SHARES AT THIS PRICE. Buy if you can and hold for 1-2 years. You will be awarded big time. Don’t listen to these Utubers.
People cannot buy. They probably have not been working and borrowing margin to buy. All investors with their money, no one sell Nio.
It’s been in a decline since 3-4 years ago, but yeah sure thing bro, if you say so i will hold 😂
I bought twice today.
I haven hearing same for 3 years , almost lost all my investments
10-20 years
Swap is the future. Nio is building so many swaps so that there will come a point that no one else can enter the market on it. Ev companies will be like man swaps such a good idea but there will be no point to even try because Nio already has 10k swap stations. Based on your video not everyone understands that but I’ll tell you who does. The market makers and manipulators of the stock! Nio power will be bigger than Nio itself. Once it gets going and more and more brands join do you know how revenue that will be? Nio will probably pay dividends per share!
Yep you are looking at the company in isolation. Hence the build out of swap network doesn't make sense with the projected deliveries under NIO group... but you can try to think about the build out in relation to ALL battery swappable cars in the next few years.
Exactly my point 👉. This is waaayyyyy over most people's head and they don't understand that NIO has been chosen as a public utility or energy company by the government. Hence why William Li meets with President's of countries. This is an ENERGY war going on between the West and East. Xpeng, Li auto and others are not even in the same category.
Bro people complained for more years why Tesla needed to build charging infrastructure... now they see we don't have enough and actually we NEED swap technology here in the USA.
Swap station is infrastructure, and who rules the infrastructure, rules the Market, when infrastructure is built out who cars are you think people are going to buy? A car that can swap, then company’s like Tesla , BYD, will either start to fail or they will have to join battery swap because we will already have the infrastructure that people want. And when that happens you better have the infrastructure to maintain those vehicles, that BYD, and Tesla makes. It’s a process so be patient, it will payoff in due time.
I’m a big fan and investor in NIO but this guy is right.
They need to slow down the money burn including building swap stations
Not if you are bankrupt.
I feel the same brother about building so many swap stations per year. They must have big big expectations for their sub brands.
Weren't the battery swap partners supposed to finance the buildout? That's what they said at least in the last few earnings calls iirc and hence the capex would be much lower? They did slow down on battery swap station buildout the first two quarters of this year and said that they would ramp it up in the last two quarters of the year, but miss on the goal of getting 1000 swap stations. I assumed it's because of the transition to gen4 and securing funds from partners.
This upcoming earnings report should hopefully shed some light on this.
In my next video in will try to dig out more info on how these partnerships work but I have a hard time seeing it being to the extent that it will at the current stage affect the companies finances to a degree that will severely cut the losses. I hope to be wrong. Hopefully there will be more details on the earnings. Thanks for the comment.:)
I am buying, don't care what negative people are saying ,or you believe or not
I’m just sharing my ideas, I don’t say that I’m right, I think the management could do much much more to protect the shareholders.
Now it's 4.087 a share -30%
Last week delivery's are terrible, no excuse.
something is wrong with the company - the market always knows
I very much agree, market cannot be stupid for years on end while the likes of Xpeng seem to get rewarded the moment the show momentum in getting to profitability.
@@rune54321 The market always overreacts.
The drop was across all HK, not just NIO. NIO 3000 is because they are going for high margin thus less incentives on premium. Also, first week was not much high last month. Onvo is not in the numbers, which is why when you add all the insurance numbers from Oct it was much lower than the total NIO sales.
Thank you for doing a structured analysis. Generally, I agree. The lack of transparency and communication from CEO on this is also a related issue.
Still, if Onvo only cannibalise 1K NIO a month, and we eventually will sell 20K+ Onvo, it looks ok. (This could be the case looking at things right now)
Also some money may be made trading power with the grid. And each swap station is promoting the cars. Then again, so would profitability.. I have been barking about this in every channel / thread.
Time IS on our side as consumers will find out about limited battery life in practice. As long as CEO does not burn all the money on pet projects before then.
It is possible that R&D on car models is slowing. Resulting in better than expected Q3 numbers.. This CEO cannot go on like this.
I tend to agree. The swap build out is too aggressive. Whenever I hear they’re going to build out 1000 new stations or some other massive number, it concerns me. And perhaps there is a fundamental reason, but the company has not made it clear to the investors why the station build out has to be so fast. I think they should be slowing the build out by about 33%. This would save HUGE amounts and enable massive uptick in stock, and they could the man raise at a way better valuation to help them accelerate the swap build out in a year or two. This would be much better. Anyhow. Solid video.
Because around 10+ car companies have joined the alliances and are on the road to deliver vehicles which can swap their batteries in 2025，not mentioning Onvo which has skyrocketed sales. You'll see the return next year.
I think are building infrastructure, because 1) swap alliance, more swap able vehicles will be on road starting 2025 2) grid stabilization income
No one here smart like you. Wasting the time to explain to F…LS
Nio has 3000 weekly insurance registrations last week. They should give up building cars & just build swap stations 😂 If onvo doesn’t deliver close to 10,000 in December Nio is toast
That is one of my worries that ONVO canibalize the traditional Nio sales. Hopefully it does not go that way.
Heard onvo had only 820 delivered last week.
@@josephpavic8688fake shorter news. Again and again
I think they build battery swapping infrastructure so aggressively, because NIO partners (who produce several million vehicles) will start releasing their new vehicle models with support of NIO battery swapping technology. ONVO is ramping up etc. there will be an explosion in demand of swap stations.
the problem with swap battery , it is go littel attractiv with the time , the battery charging speed go to 10 minute in future , but maybe long term for swaping , that the battery long life time is the stable is very competetiv but the people need long time to realise that
Are you not aware of all the partnerships for battery swap?
I'm selling too frustrating ..no profit .. margins are down . CEO has lost touch with their shareholders
something absolutely is wrong with nio
Perhaps Li Auto can acquire NIO.... and run it like a real business 😢
Onvo is the only thing to save the company
Why did they call it Onvo ? And not Nio
Nobody has heard of Onvo
Marketing Nio are a bunch of amateurs
Thanks for interesting comment. In regards to ONVO I think there is good and bad about the different naming and brand. They can now have different pricing structures and profiles which would be more difficult without the subbrand.
Simple - they build based on what their Govt asks.
Best for Nio is to sell everything to Mercedes for 20 a share
I hope not my friend, I believe in Nio but i hoped for the management to try to understand the reality of this situation from perspective of shareholders. A lot of other companies seem to be able to gear up deliveries without swap stations.
DARK POOLS . MANUPILATED BIG TIME .
Range anxiety... Look a USA EV infrastructure it's terrible... vehicles need infrastructure. Duh...😅
You have every right to be concern. Something is definitely wrong. NIO valuation reflects the low probability of success. The market does know this. It is loosing the most money of all the Chinese EV manufacturers. If Onvo doesn't hit its sales target NIO will go bankrupt. Unfortunately, I'm too upside down to sell. Otherwise I would be out.
Good analysis
The poor performance has to do with China being in a recession, hence a great time to buy. All China stocks will suck for the next year.
Dude you have no clue. Get this through your head: Nio is an energy infrastructure company first and a car producing company second. Nio is not digging for the gold like all other EV players, but Nio is handing out the shovels.
Having swap station's before cars is important. Imagine promoting swapping with little to nowhere to swap??? Now sell the car's. One new out three more next year. LFG
I agree on the importance of swap stations I never said it’s a bad idea long term but I think the extent to which they are expanding is hurting the company in the long term. Thanks for your comment :)
@UrAverageInvestor. What about the partnerships also dropping their first swappable car's next year too? But maybe their plan is too long term for some. I'm sure there's room here for short term trades as well.
@@UrAverageInvestor.It's not hurting the "company"... it's hurting the share price, I agree. But it's TEMPORARY... the company isn't going out of business. Your frustrated because most American companies are having a party that NIO has not been invited to lol 😅. It sucks but it doesn't change what Amazon, Tesla and NIO and other big companies have all had to go through.
Nio is failing during a bull market. That should say a lot about it
Please do more research into the company before posting anymore panic videos
I respect your view and will do more research but I honestly believe the pace of swap buildup is affecting the companies net loss substantially tbh. Thanks for your comment! :)
3000 units Nio only!!
Hopefully ONVO is above 1500. But yea really disappointed that traditional Nio brand did not get at least 4K.
I heard 820 onvo, hope I'm wrong but I don't think so. And if it's true there is no excuse for such a low delivery.
Nio will make money from the swap and charging station. They gatta keep building to stay ahead of the competition, if another company want to compete they gatta build their own infrastructure which cost billions.
I agree with that sentiment but since the valuation is so low I think it makes more sense to be more dynamic and slowdown the expansion of swap station until we see much more utilization per station and give a few Q the possibility to not have as much bleed as they do right now. My biggest fear is yet another dilution to the stock.
Nio car just less competitive compared to peer in China. Strong head wind ahead.
Stop this crap information. It is absolutely senseless only to look at the fundamentals...
Explain
It’s horrible stock to own.
Buy xpeng Nio bankrupt
Xpeng's share price are dropping like stone right now. it will be going down to $12 or lower very soon.
The stock is a huge disappointment. Loss loss loss
I think the market sees what we sometimes refuse too, management seems to think that the market does not matter.
Crazy 🤪 to sell NIO. You should be BUYING. The whole point is to buy low and sell high. This is when you BUY. It's a no-brainer.
The reason you don't know WHY they need the swap stations is because you don't live in China. It's to balance the grid, bro. BUT to your point, they have slowed down building swap stations and acquired partners to help build more. For example, the Southern China Power grid. It doesn't make sense to you because you're not factoring in all the companies that have signed on for battery swap.
Yes, I know, it sucks when you see Tesla flying high and you know NIO is the better company.
There is a BIG reason for the West to slow NIO down. They are the most advanced.
21,000 at $5.70 average
You don’t know what u talking about
You sound scared and should sell.....if it went down more will add. What is your time frame? 2-3 months or 2-3 years? You are really clueless.... So where would gas auto's be if there were no new gas stations.