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Time to buy more Nio shares at this rock bottom price. Will sky rocket 🚀 in 2025.

Do AMD next. New paper by Dylan Patel compared MI300X to H100 + H200, said the software stack is lacking considerably compared to Nvidia’s.

Tesla is just being propped up by big money. Nothing Tesla is doing is showing growth. It’s the opposite. At some point it will crash.

We are going from 20k units/mo. of vehicle deliveries very quickly to 40k units/mo. With new models we will continue to see very fast growth rates on deliveries. By extension, this means we should be seeing exponential growth in PSS usage. Since each vehicle may require something like 4 swaps per/mo., if they do not continue deploying swap stations, users may run into capacity constraints with the existing swap infrastructure. So, NIO's problem will actually quickly become a problem of not having enough swap stations when vehicle deliveries ramp up so quickly. At least that's my current opinion. Merry Christmas to you and yours!

It’s been a given since Dec 10 or so that they would hit their target. They didn’t even need to exceed their prior record by that much, and they reiterated the target… and pretty sure they know better than us what they’ll hit. Pretty clear that 2025 is going to be a 365,000+ delivery year.

Jan 1's Dec delivery number will include all oversea number which will be more than all 4 Dec weakly numbers.

Onvo is already turning into an unmitigated disaster. How are they going to double sales in 2025 when the new factory isn’t going to be up and running until the end of the third quarter? They’re going to make up for all of that volume and 90 days? It’s going to be another year of missed.guidance, massive net losses and huge expenditures. Without factoring in the US$3 billion they have the rights to buy into. Nio China in 2025 I expect them to run out of cash by the end of the third quarter 2025

Bro, I LOVE your videos. No disrespect at all. BUT when you find out you have been wrong about battery swap and you discover NIO was absolutely 💯 right to spend on battery swap (In fact, they should have been spending more) I just want you to make a video and at least admit that you came to the wrong conclusion. You will be happy to make the video because you are a NIO shareholder. I wish I could be happy to be wrong lol 😂 about my past investments.

Tsla will be above 500 by end of year!

very informative, tnx for the video!

Agree on the tesla analysis. Not well informed about the others

HIMS seems to have had its bull run already this year, 4X in one year!! If I were to take any position I’d wait for it drop below $20.

The biggest lesson I learned in 2023 about the stock market is that nobody knows what will happen next, so practice some humility and low a strategy with a long-term edge.

Based on adj. EPS, fair value is $125 per share.

I think you can judge Pat on whether 18A works or not. So on that basis it was too early to boot him out.

I think there is some hope in Intel as long as they are not in denial. And listening to the recent conference, It seems that they are aware of their shortcomings. So if they know what the situation is, they know what they need to do. And I think they want Foundry to do well but they did say that they will try to ditch it if 18A doesn't cook. But the hope is that it will.

I will buy a lot AMD stock in the next 3 weeks

Tesla’s recent gain has more to do with Elon and his “access” to political elite (which he contributed to their success). So it is not due to the merits of the company. So Tesla could go even higher simply because of Elon “character” (or lack of it). Full disclosure: I do not own Tesla shares.

I have some exposure to AMD, so I do appreciate the bull case, but I'm reluctant to go in big for the following reasons: a) The superscalers are all likely to migrate to custom silicon at some point. Google already does this with their TPU system - which is more performant than anything even NVIDIA is capable of putting out -- as does Amazon. b) CUDA has become the de-facto standard and no one is going to bother learning and using ROCm. Still, I do feel the current mark has done AMD dirty and I hope the stock shoots up.

Amd to $500 by late 2026 at 34 pe. Intel will drop 25% percent by late 2026 at 8 pe.

Dude, seriously, start using the new microphone already!

100% agree! I do think AMD will reach $1000 ps by 2028. Super Long AMD since 2014!

Management cannot just ignore the stock price entirely. Obviously it shouldn’t drive their every move, and I completely understand that they want to reinvest most profit back into growth. However, they need to increase the value of the company so that they can do at least one or two more future raises. If they can trend towards profit and get the stock price up to about 3x sales, then a raise is going to deliver them much more money with far less dilution. This is critical to be considering, because I do think they’re going to want to raise more money in 2026 or 2027 to help them expand internationally.

Great observations I agree completely. The time value of money for the poor folks who bought this during the hype is very easy to calculate versus what they could have made by simple indexing. I don’t agree with you that they will be a publicly traded company long-term I think they will be privatized, ultimately. There is no intention to move towards profitability enough to offset the spending and clearly they have a demand problem against the backdrop of capex. They cannot raise capital at the share prices and only profitability will move the share price to a level that it makes sense to dilute even through convertible bonds. The destruction of capital with this company has been mind numbing and book value was down to $.77 per share triple digit negative return on equity every quarter.

I completely agree with you on swaps for "now". But once 2-3x the number of cars then the whole scenario changes. If NIO were to stop selling cars today I could see your point. But the reality is that they will deliver cars an exponential rate faster than they can build swap stations. So in my opinion, you need the swap stations first. I prefer they have 5000 swap station before they let the foot of the gas with build out. For traders it sucks. For investors, I agree.. you can exit now and wait to come back in later if you choose. But I'll leave what I have in NIO for now and invest new money in other place. The issue with Chinese stocks... I think everyone is aware geo politically what is going on. It can change in the blink of an eye. I would try to time it and pull out of Chinese stocks.

1. many Americans think small nanometer means better performance. In general, yes, but TSMC has proven it isn't always the case. My iPhone is iPhone 6S. Apple placed its orders to both Samsung(14nm) and TSMC(16nm) at that moment. And we all know what happened. All the Apple's orders went to TSMC after that. So is Intel 18A equal to TSMC's 2nm? According to 2025 ISSCC, based on the SRAM value, it might be just equal to TSMC's 3nm. 2. Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO, once commented on TSMC and Intel. Quote: TSMC has learned to dance with 400 partners. Intel has always danced alone. From the history of Intel, i am afraid Intel lacks of that experience. 3. Pat's roadmap is correct, i agree. But i refuse not to discuss the time factor when considering his plan. Tech changes too fast, the tech/product you have today might be worthless tomorrow. Sounds cruel but that is the reality. The longer time Pat needs, the less interest i have for it.

I agree with you. I like Tesla, but I don't fully trust its CEO, Mr. Musk. There's always the possibility that he could take actions that negatively impact the company. On the other hand, NIO has already taken a significant hit, and there’s not much more room for it to decline.

In November alone new users used NIO’s battery swap stations over 27000 times .... all in all NIO users have now swapped a battery over 51 million times , that’s a fact and this number is growing every minute, and that’s just NIO. Many large auto producers in China have now joined NIO’s battery program and will produce cars that can swap using NIO’s charging stations and technology. This company may be struggling for now but this is a monster in the making and battery swapping will soon be the standard set by the Chinese government and NIO will be a massive winner when that happens.

NIO CEO recently already said will be profitable 2026 then trading above 15 is possible.

7K to 8K on ONVO is fine for Dec. YTY NIO still have sale growth of 28-30% for 2024.

BaaS Utilization does need attention, and there is definitely room for significant "optimization". I wish there was a way to bring this into the management attention, perhaps using NIO app Chat!! Things are improving overall, but as everything in life, nothing is guaranteed, and therefore they should take advantage of good times to hold on current investors and attract new ones.

Pat Gelsinger is the solution

Pat bet the entire company on the foundry ... not a great idea

You offer some interesting perspective on the tech stocks that are popular in these days. Great work in showing the actual numbers that shapes your opinions on the choices that you make. new sub here!

I agree with your assessment. However, the video didn't age well (!), considering today's dramatic nose dive :o)

there should be a petition of sorts, as a humble small investor I'd gladly sign it. I completely agree that Pat should have continued with his plan. The board really fucked up.

You need a better microphone. Or to raise the sound level or something.

Thank you for the excellent explanation!

BOD is incompetent.

Do one on ALAB, AI networking company

The co-CEOs told another podcaster during NDA meeting, that Pat wasn't listening to customers. That might be why. I agree he's the best choice for CEO, and board probably doesn't understand a lot, but why isn't he listening to customers? That's the interesting bit.

The board members are non-technical but that does not mean that they made a mistake. The new co-CEO chosen by the board publicly stated that the vision remains unchanged. So this may have had more to do with Pat's ability to execute on the vision.

I told you many months ago, do not underestimate bad corporate culture. They are illogical. But they will continue to be bad until the company is no more

Xpeng Motors is much better, but now working with Nio, which is a very nice brand too, especially for its luxuous and well equiped inside. Nio is fantastic for its battery exchange system, but for vehicles, it has as all others vehicles of any brand some little specificities, which others brands do differently. Nio use fantastic materials, Xpeng Motors use excellent one, bur is much more efficient for software... The very effective collaboration between Xpeng Motors and Nio, allow them to use what others do nicely, and let the user choose which alternative he wants to use. Different users in the same vehicle can benefit of different personnalisations, and benefit only of that they are already used to, or what is most convenient for them... Xpeng Motors is working woth Xpeng Robotics and Xpeng AeroHT, allowing them to consider things much more accurately ! Nio snd Xpeng Motors are both collsborating on Kunpeng EREV System, and Xpeng Motors will propose a chassis with Nio Battery Swapping compatibility! Nio already benefitted of lot if software improvements since October 2024. Both Xpeng Motors and Nio should sell much more. Li Auto and Tesla should sell much less!

I am buying, don't care what negative people are saying ,or you believe or not

HEAVY ACCENT.......

You can't really compare X to NIO. X cars are much cheaper and in a different lower bracket. NIO is a premium brand.

I don't think cannibalization is the issue that's leading to lower deliveries of the NIO brand. I think it's an issue of prioritizing time on the assembly line. With some constraints in production, they have to decide what vehicles to build. Until we see F3 go live, there will be bottlenecks no matter the demand for either brand. Anyway, that's my best guess.

Keep up the honest and critical work. You have the right to share your opinion regardless. Cheers!

You're a short. Don't pretend like you own NIO. You are trying to spread FUD but it won't work. It makes no sense for you to analyze a spreadsheet with revenues and expenses when you have absolutely NO IDEA what is going to happen. You are foolishly speculating and guessing on these categories is as far fetched as any other person on the planet. Plus, you can easily make your numbers support any of your far fetched theories. And then when you are wrong....you can say you were "pleasantly surprised" without admitting that you are a buffoon w an accent. Speculation is a moron's game and wasting time creating videos about it is a moron's game for someone who is bored and has too much time on their hands. That is not speculation....it is the truth.