In the 1992 Lichtman had the economy keys rated false because of bad public perception of the economy, even though the US economy was not in a recession based on growth measurements. Today the same is true, but inflation has been much higher the last several years due to Trump covid and Biden stimulus spending, yet he has the keys rated true. I believe this shows the professor's personal bias and the subjective rating problem with the 13 keys model.
@@Cityplace2711 Hey I didn't see this comment earlier but however you want to parse it the point is Lichtman referenced a negative perception prior to the '92 election (therefore had economy keys false) even though by objective GDP growth metrics it ended in early '91, and today there is also a negative perception of the economy, even if growth percentage says it's not in a recession either but today he has the economy keys rated true. Point is he himself has not established an objective criteria for evaluating his own econ keys and hasn't used them consistently himself.
Well, not completely equally weighed. He mentions that no party has ever won that lost both the "incumbency" and "uncontested" Keys. It appears that Harris will save the "uncontested " Key.
It does not impact key #8, because the protesters who are marching in Washington DC are focused on an outside conflict between a terrorist group and the state of Israel. Most everyone in the U.S. supports the State of Israel and wants the conflict to end. The USA does not control the leadership of all of the other arab countries. OPEC countries do not want the conflict to end. This is not directly a US problem. Therefore no impact on key #8.
How hard was it yo predict Obama? 2/3 of the electorate voted for Hussein Obama out of a self righteous sense of moral superiority because he was a black candidate.
He measures it based on GDP growth not inflation, and if it was based on inflation it’d still be true since inflation at the moment is only 3% which is what it’s supposed to be at
He’s admitted that’s he’s a Democrat but he tries not to be biased. I mean he predicted Trump’s victory in 2016 and Trump’s defeat in 2020. He’s a Democrat but when he’s predicting his keys he’s tries not to let his bias influence him.
How can he be a partisan hack? His system predicted that Reagan would win, it predicted that Bush would win, and it predicted that Trump would win in 2016. Also, the keys are still in play... He just said either side could win right now.
It comes down to a few states so his keys concept cannot be scaled.
He is a lying lifelong Democrat.
❤ Prof Lichtman
WE'RE NOT GOING BACK (TO 4 MORE YEARS OF KAMALA) TRUMP 2024 ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥
this is just too scary to even consider!
In the 1992 Lichtman had the economy keys rated false because of bad public perception of the economy, even though the US economy was not in a recession based on growth measurements. Today the same is true, but inflation has been much higher the last several years due to Trump covid and Biden stimulus spending, yet he has the keys rated true. I believe this shows the professor's personal bias and the subjective rating problem with the 13 keys model.
1992 did have a recession. We're not actually in one today.
Sure feels like we are.
@@Cityplace2711 Hey I didn't see this comment earlier but however you want to parse it the point is Lichtman referenced a negative perception prior to the '92 election (therefore had economy keys false) even though by objective GDP growth metrics it ended in early '91, and today there is also a negative perception of the economy, even if growth percentage says it's not in a recession either but today he has the economy keys rated true. Point is he himself has not established an objective criteria for evaluating his own econ keys and hasn't used them consistently himself.
This is what happens when academia gets high on its own supply
The professor will either sell a lot of books, or a lot of door stoppers, come November…
or both.
Vote VP Kamala Harris for President of the US in 2024!🇺🇸💙🇺🇸VOTEBLUE🇺🇸💙🇺🇸
It sounds like the keys are all equally weighted. That seems counter-intuitive.
Well, not completely equally weighed. He mentions that no party has ever won that lost both the "incumbency" and "uncontested" Keys.
It appears that Harris will save the "uncontested " Key.
Yeah I think he’s wrong about the charisma key? Considering the response she has received 😂
See? The Washington, D.C. protests from yesterday don't make an effect! It's just making Key 8 a bit more shakier.
It does not impact key #8, because the protesters who are marching in Washington DC are focused on an outside conflict between a terrorist group and the state of Israel. Most everyone in the U.S. supports the State of Israel and wants the conflict to end. The USA does not control the leadership of all of the other arab countries. OPEC countries do not want the conflict to end. This is not directly a US problem. Therefore no impact on key #8.
@@videopyc What about the DNC?
oh my go with policies and who could run the country and polices. How easy? You like this or you like that. You are making money for being a nut
Here comes the loonie key man lol
Do you have a degree from Harvard. ?
@@sheilabatey492 Nope do you
Smarter than that baby .....
He’s a PhD with 40 years experience in predicting elections. What can you do that anyone with sense would care about?
He predicted Biden.
Next…
He did predict Trump in 2016 dont forget that
He’s been predicting elections for 40 years. Try not to sound so smug
How hard was it yo predict Obama? 2/3 of the electorate voted for Hussein Obama out of a self righteous sense of moral superiority because he was a black candidate.
How does he make the economic keys blue? INFLATION!!!
He measures it based on GDP growth not inflation, and if it was based on inflation it’d still be true since inflation at the moment is only 3% which is what it’s supposed to be at
Inflation is not Blue , IT is because of corporations greed , and the mayority of them are RED .
Because we are not in a recession. The growth for this term is better than the last two terms.
Yeah but people vote with their wallet they don’t adjust for inflation to give the incumbent administration the benefit of the doubt.
Inflation has been down sharply since 2022. COVID-19 gave rise to inflation in the first place. And who was in office then? Not Biden.
His predictions are worthless to me now that i know he's a partisan hack
He’s admitted that’s he’s a Democrat but he tries not to be biased. I mean he predicted Trump’s victory in 2016 and Trump’s defeat in 2020. He’s a Democrat but when he’s predicting his keys he’s tries not to let his bias influence him.
No regardless he’s a Democrat shill. His opinion has changed as the party’s position has changed on their candidate.
@@jamesstewart8377it hasnt changed.
I am sure you were a believer when he predicted that Trump would win over Hillary, even though the polls showed that Hillary was ahead in the polls.
How can he be a partisan hack? His system predicted that Reagan would win, it predicted that Bush would win, and it predicted that Trump would win in 2016. Also, the keys are still in play... He just said either side could win right now.
According to his keys trump will win
You obviously don't know how to comprehend.
No they don't
@tonytorres6792 I don’t think you understand the keys. Lol
No, he said the keys are still in play... He just said either side could win. It's too close to call.
Looks like someone is either delusional, a liar or dense.
He has TDS.
No such thing!
Just because he has an opposing view?! You REALLY are that stupid!!!! 🙄
Trump is cognitively impaired, not Allan Lichtman.