The arms market has seen some dramatic shifts since 2022, and after the response to the video on Russia's collapse as a supplier, I thought it would be worth finishing the story by looking at some of the other major movers and trends in detail. Hope you enjoy. Small correction as per the description - at one point I do misspeak. I indicate that the estimate for increased defence spending in 2023 is a CSIS figure when it is in fact from an IISS publication.
Is defence spending at two per cent of GDP still appropriate? It was agreed in the good ol' days of less belligerent Russia. If we look at the Cold War period most Nato members were well above 2 per cent - more like three to five percent. A few notable exceptions such as the Great White North that started reaping prematurely the peace dividend in 1973 when its defence spending fell to less than 2 per cent and remained even lower than that for 46 of the past 50 years. Excluding Toqueistan's five decades of withering, many other Nato states are at two to three decades of under investment. Two per cent of GDP was to stop the withering and sustain a credible force in an entirely different context. But the word of the day now is expansion. Two per cent of GDP doesn't cut it. Expansion is Poland's 4 per cent. Seeing long-term purchases coming from three or four per cent of GDP may make it easier for defence firms to expand productive capacity.
Denmark doesn’t mind Switzerland having high salaries, so has Denmark Australia and many other importers of weapon systems quality and ability to deliver the system fast and not in 10 years is much more important, Denmark wanted new artillery but Ukraine was given free access to both current weapons and ordered ones that Denmark had whit a specific amount of value they could take or order new weapons or used once for the same amount of money, wisely they took all the soon to be delivered Cesar mobile artillery systems from France they where given a short training period when they where delivered in Denmark with our artillery trainers and mechanics to both shot, supply and repair, a system we hadn’t even operated before but had prepared for to do so with the French, and then they where transported to Ukraine with their new crew and service personnel, the war in Ukraine has really been a logistical and training experience for both EU and Ukraine 😮 but France couldn’t supply new ones in a very long time even with the increased production, they are very expensive and which is not that important because they are also very good, but long delivery is a no go, but despite Israel is at war they have taken the contract for mobile artillery and some mobile rockets artillery similar to the Americans sent to Ukraine and the Caesar mobile artillery, it has very close to the same capabilities and quality, don’t know about the price but it is very fast which is important. So Israel unlike Russia can still export weapons and fast delivery 😊
@@gagamba9198 it’s minimum 2 % and yes that’s a fine mark for everyone, if I where Poland and the Baltic states I would go as high as you say, but they are already doing or aiming for that number, they have in living memory had unpleasant experiences with Russian imperialism, USSR or Russia the occupation soldiers spoke Russian. Finland is above 2 percent and has a very big military especially infantry and artillery and enormous bunker systems to both soldiers and civilians to live in under a nuclear war, they have even under ground schools and sports facilities to whether out a war in, Norway spends a little under 2% but have budgeted to do so in 2026, but I’m not sure if they can make it, they have a unique situation, they are unbelievably rich, much higher GDP than the USA and the war has made their exports enormous which makes it hard to get enough weapons to follow the increasing GDP, they where in the first wave to get F35 which they have been operating for many years now, they have lost of new US Abraham tanks and in every branch of their military it’s modern weapons the best you can buy for money, and Norway and Russia has a very narrow border which is in the arctic region and mountains with lots of water ways fjords narrowing it in many places even more, and the land has mountains one one side a the Atlantic Ocean on the other, and very few people live there which makes it perfectly for a defensive war in-depth, with NATO ships and AIR dominating airspace and sea, attacking Norway from Russia would be the worst possible scenario 1-20 deaths would be a good job for the Russia military, which would be having to supply everything on a single road that goes thousands of kilometers close to the border of Finland 😂 which means nothing would be possible to supply, the same thing with air crafts it would not be possible with the proximity and infrastructure the Russians have in the north to supply and attack by land, air or ship, if NATO spends minimum 2 % of GDP they will spend 15-20 times the amount of money that Russia spends, if they really preoccupied Ukraine over there oven military for 5 years they would easily out supply Russia and whoever supplies Russia, but it’s not easy to just give away weapons and money when you own military is under supplied 😮
@@rotors_taker_0hlikely not. This would not be due to their quality but rather due to their length. In most high levels of government the time of politicians is at a premium and so it is often only a few minutes or seconds that are available for a presentation. Perhaps clips could be used. The full videos are likely being shown in some military training though as they would be an easy augmentation to existing training which, by the admission of several people in the comment sections of these videos, often involves extremely long and tedious PowerPoint lectures.
I think that Perun, being a military expert, might actually trump the fact he’s a TH-camr, it’s like William Spaniel, who’s also a TH-camr but a professor in social science. Sometimes the TH-cam channel is irrelevant 😂
@@rotors_taker_0hIt’s possible. But “High Cabinets” usually have squads of subordinates that deliver one page summaries (and other subordinates that develop policies and still others that perform analysis on those policies. So it’s likely that there are folks in upper echelons that watch Perun, there are also staffs that perform the same function. The point is that the top decision makers are already getting Perun-level or better analysis, tailored to their specific circumstances. Another aspect to Perun’s presentations is that they all use publicly available information. Perun might receive non-public information, but if so he would go to great pains not to reveal it by including it in his analysis. Meanwhile, a government analyst supplying analysis product to get government won’t have such restrictions because their audience is cleared for such information. Perun is an excellent resource for us, the public. He performs the vital function of informing us, the citizens and tax payers of our respective countries. Let’s leave it at that.
@@Tekker2234 yeah, I don't mean really highest cabinets, of course politicians would never spend hours watching the video, but their staff member probably would (and should).
Do the rice krispy bunnies count as solid, or not? Because there is air inside the puffed rice, but its otherwise solid. I ask because those are the absolute best chocolate bunnies.
Body armor and tourniquets to. A gun is not the only thing you need to bring to a gunfight. But I'm a wierdo prepper hopefully we never need any of that shit.
@user-zb9lv3gh8s let's see. 2 AR 10s, one DMR and one battle rifle. 4 AR 15s, 2 5.56 (one back up), 2 any number of other calibers (one as back up), and 2 AR pistols. Yeah that math checks out. But that's per person, not per household, right?
Brilliant as always! I did choke on my coffee at the “there are stretches of the American desert with enough equipment to give every rattlesnake its own armoured division”. I absolutely love these videos you do. Keep it up 👍
@@Fredmayve The long term storage is great for preventing rust or corrosion. But the heat and dryness also require a complete overhaul to replace all the rubber and other materials that either dry rot or become too brittle. Seals, tires, belts and a ton of similar things.
In Sweden, the Army seems slightly slow on starting to buy drones, so the Home Guard basically went on Amazon and bought themselves a bunch to practice with. No meaningful numbers, but maybe enough to try out some tactics atleast.
The Swedish Home Guard has officially adopted weapons almost a decade before the army on several occasions. It's almost like it's an integral part of the Swedish defence strategy.
With the rapid change Perun mentioned there's probably a model for "Buy", "Play with for a few months", "Send to Ukraine", "Buy" repeat repeat repeat and not actually being stuck with a mass purchase of last years model
Also if you buy Swiss weapons, and you end up at war, you would never be able to get spare parts or more ammo for them, from the Swiss at least. And of course from no one else if it's a part or ammo produced on license from Switzerland. So completely useless to spend even a cent on Swiss weapons.
That specific decision of the Swiss Goverment to block the Gepard Amunition to Ukraine was most likely just a knee fall to Russian Bank Deposits in Switzerland. By the way never believe the Swiss myth that their Alp Fortress prevented Hitler to invade in World War 2. The benefits of Swiss economic cooperation with the Nazi Regime was far to useful
Long term S.Korea becomes a major supplier world wide. Korea is already has tanks , APC's , IFV's ,artillery and self-propelled artillery on par and compatible with NATO. Not only is S.Korea selling good kit, they will sell the factories for building the weapons in your own Country. They are basically applying the "Franchise Model' to their defense industry. They'll be cranking out the K-2 tank in Poland soon...It's a safe bet they'll be selling these things all over Eastern Europe to replace the obsolete Soviet built tanks they currently have.
@@takunveritas if only it were a gift. Unfortunately people have to buy the things, then get told they can't use what they bought🤷♂️ not a great way to secure future orders.
In a world where 99% of TH-camrs are getting hot and bothered over individual pieces of military hardware, there is one person who actually analyzes the things that win wars: the checkbook, the training and force structure, and the logistics train. Keep doing what you're doing, Perun. In an age of heightened tension around the world, it is important for voters in the world's democracies to understand the concepts you are covering.
In his interview with Tucker Carlson, Putin telegraphed that if he succeeds in Ukraine, then Poland will be next. He said Poland started WWII, and he claimed Poland created Ukraine, and that they're harboring not-sees. Personally, I disagree with all of those claims. However, even if the claims against them are BS, Poland still has to prepare to be invaded in the next couple of years, or to help their neighbors keep the war in Ukraine (IOW supply their neighbors)
I mean, I know there are fascists in Poland, but they're everywhere - it's not as if Poland is especially susceptible. In fact, an argument could be made that the invading country is closer to that not-see ideal.
@@GizzyDillespee Take a look a Wagner and the airport riot and that's all you need to know about how much Russia actually cares about them. I mean they had a not see group attempt to overthrow the government and still have the audacity to claim Ukraine's problem is worse.
Poland have been (mostly) supporting Ukraine like it's a proxy war, and if they become active belligerents it might become more expensive for them but they'd also relish the opportunity to take revenge for the 20th century.
Perun, I can't speak for anyone else but myself, but these heavy data analytics videos that you favor are my personal favorite as well. Thank you for the indepth and comprehensive summary of massive amounts of data and reading of reports, budgets and projections. Greatly appreciated, from an avid follower.
13:30 - That is, once again, the peace dividend biting us in the ass on the way out the door. Stuff like the Badger Army Ordinance Works was declared surplus in 1997, and leveled. To be fair, environmental remediation was absolutely necessary, but just “throwing away” capacity has proven to be problematic.
we wouldnt be year 3 of this war if soviet stockpiles were properly "recycled" in the first place. russia been enjoying some peace dividend too with old stockpiles and skipping manufacturing until 2022.
As a Japanese, the talk arround Switzerland was something to take note. With GCAP/Tempest Program starting to ramp up its efforts, it was neccesary to make a cabinet decision to allow exports of it. The decision itself was made a few days ago, but it was a very controversial decision. Japan's constitusion has made it clear that Japan needed to "desire peace for all time" and exporting weapons that would kill people if used as intended doesn't seem to be very peacefull. But at the same time, those weapons are neccesary to deter wars and this should help other countries to be involved in wars, hence promoting world peace. Is the idea of "Neutrality" or "Pacifism" a joke in the current world? I don't know the answer, but I hope these hard times just go away.
Hello from France Si Vis Pacem Para Bellum (who seeks peace prepares war). Peace has never been free, we have to fight for it... History is ridden with pacifist people wiped out by militias/armies/mercenaries. Pacifism stands as long as each party has a bigger incentive into cooperation than (armed) competition. China, and Russia did that for industry, energy, weapons industry, etc. and now they are somehow autonomous, are severing links as both Their political views (centralized system, authoritarianism, and little freedom) fundamentally diverging from "West+" (USA, UE, UK, Australia, NZ, Japan, etc.) ones (freedom and democracy), they now have been in hybrid conflict for years against us. Also forming economical, industrial, energetic alliances with other authoritarian countries (North Korea, Iran, many african and south american countries, few in eastern Europe, etc.) trying to exclude West to replace it with their oppressive systems Look at how China closed access the IAEA site to its locals and claimed Fukushima water was supposedly toxic, propping an anti-japanese feel and boycott of many japanese products, when they rise admissible emissions of their own nuclear plants to cover the leaks there. Not open conflict but rather economic, soft power, and information ones
I think the big thing bringing me back every Sunday, is the amount of new to me information on topics I'm interested in clearly presented. The giggles are a bonus. 😊
@@qZbGmYjS4QusYqv5Borg quality is much better than that. Wolf 359 would have been different if half the Borg's disruptors blew up on itself, missed targets, or didn't fire.
I'm gonna tell you what I'm gonna tell you, then I'll tell you, then I'll tell you what told you. Perfect. Works every time. Always appreciate this channel.
Oh, Hell yeah! His method of using PowerPoint to bring clarity would be much better than even the best any political scientist would do! But I would like to see one with a compare and contrast of the different rules and positions of all of the declared Neutrals.
Just a quick remark: The President of Switzerland is a purely representative position and he is merely the Primus inter Pares of the Executive Council, so not comparable to POTUS or other states where the President is the big boss.
@@builtbroken3558 "Originally the POTUS wasn't really the big boss" - I was under impression it was exact opposite. POTUS had more powers than the allegedly "tyrannical" monarch of Great Britain.
Honestly, one of the things I love the most about your channel is that if I'm in the mood to focus and learn about defense and geopolitics and history, you're amazingly informative and engaging. Conversely, if I want some background audio to fall asleep to, the economics works a treat for that too.
27:05 that South Korean export of ships will spike once again after the Philippines' order of 6 OPVs and 2 heavy corvettes, they might also bag the 2 submarines currently on tender. They also recently signed a deal with the Peruvian Government for tech transfer and local production of frigates, OPVs, and LCUs.
Another brilliant vid. Thanks very much! My general takeaway is that for artillery and drones: If a little is good, more is better and too much is almost enough.
It's a general rule for all munitions. Peacetime bureaucrats fundamentally can _not_ understand wartime munition use, even the uniformed bureaucrats. So they'll buy what they confidently claim is a twelve month supply for high-intensity conflict, and then during a war run through the lot in a month or two. It's pretty much a constant of warfare, though you'll find that in ye olden days some of it was planned for by plundering conquered lands.
Agreed However they have been sitting next door to a country that never signed a peace treaty with them. + Also has massive artillery+ tank forces. ..... ++ Your country always remembers the last war. + For them that war was "the Korean war" Where the north nearly completely overwhelmed them with the weight of Soviet sponsored weapon systems. And looking around the world at the ability for other nations to actually supply them in case of emergency...... Well we see how well that has gone.
@@elijahsnow3119 - They're in a position, though, where they have to set up shops in other countries (which is okay, unless you're doing best in class, cutting edge stuff). The pop. of only 50 million is aging and shrinking.
@@JoannDavi Also there’s the realization of the fact that Korea has zero strategic depth. The Polish/Korean nexus is… possibly one of the most interesting geopolitical developments I’ve ever seen in my lifetime.
@@elijahsnow3119 From our perspective sure. But say from a USA perspective. If Mexico was our north Korea. + War could just suddenly pop off. The spare compasity in the USA would be.... Rather crazy.
Happy Easter to our servicemen and women around the globe. Thanks for making these videos. Hope you're well, and that you're enjoying your much deserved success.
@@MM22966they just have to make a choice. Either have health care or a bad ass unhealthcare machine. I trust European Texas to make te correct choice.
@@texasforever7887 Technically, due to various factors, Russia never had THE navy or even a navy - the had multiple navies ('fleets') spread between disjointed theaters. Northern Fleet, Baltic Fleet, Far East Fleet are unaffected.
Gladiator to Meteor is a good example of the speed of change in WW2, as would Matilda 1 to Centurion. Hard to believe that Fairey Swordfish to Fairey Swordfish was also a thing.
It's not really fair to compare the Gladiator to the Meteor as "five years." It was a seven and a half year gap from Gladiator in Feb 37 to Meteor in July 44.
@@boobah5643 , MkV Spitfire to Meteor F3. 5 years. No prizes for guessing who gets to go home for tea and medals. It's not the only example though. HMS Dreadnaught rendered every other battleship afloat instantly obsolete. 30 years later, the aircraft carrier reduced the battleship to effectively a niche shore bombardment platform and even then only where air superiority had been attained.
I feel more informed and am somewhat concerned that South Korea is flirting with the Borg collective. Great job Perun! Also, happy Bunsen burner Day everyone!
Great overview of historic and current market development. I concur to a certain extent and would like to add my 2 cents worth. 1. Industrial output of defence sector is not as simple. For example, self propelled artillery. You need some primary technology, guns (barrels etc), turret (largely command and control - C2), powerpack, hull (armour plate, welding and suspensions). Then you need ammunition and propellant (artillery charge) and accurate positioning, target acquisition, data sharing (C4) and rapid shoot and scoot capabilities. Nowadays, you would also need autoloader, auto resupply vehicle and so on. Each and every component would require hundreds of millions dollars of investment to achieve if not billions. For example, there are inly 3 nations in Europe who can produce high quality armour plates for armoured vehicle (others are far inferior), welding technology and skilled workforce would take years of investment and training, for artillery propellant (charge) there are only 5 countries with proprietary technology (largely, modularised cartridge charge), for barrels only 4-5 countries with chrome plating technology to extend barrel life etc. You would need all the components together to produce a competitive system on a global stage. That take years of heavy investment and plenty of R&D personnels. 2. Techstack. You might want to build a SpH, after all some countries produced it 70-80 years ago. However, the techstack required for a modern platform is truly mind blowing. For example, SatCom target designation would require myriad of technologies from secure GPS, Communication, target prioritisation, target allocation etc. To achieve a decent platform for your forces, the R&D cost of such platforms would be in hundreds of millions dollars. With new addition of drone ISR, the complexity and coats go up exponentially. 3. The example of French Airforce and its development is a good example. Without such development pre WW2, French may not have been able to develop its jet fighters post war. Each new technology innovation is a child of prior technology. It is very hard to break that steps and come up with something that is market disrupting. Hence to develop all the necessary tech stack is a long term challenging tasks and not as simple as buying the technology from somewhere else. For example, Korea developed KT1 (turbo prop trainer in 80s), then FA50 (single jet trainer attacker in 2000s) and now developing KF21 (twin jet in 2020s). The whole journey has taken Korean 50 years and astronomical investment and dozens of thousands of researchers and engineers to get to where they are. There is no short cut. 4. The complexity and cost of developing a new system is skyrocketing. F35 spends more investment in developing software than hardware. As the world leaps forward with defence technology, the sheer investment required to enter the market is becoming a natural barrier for entry. For example, a frigate (5-6,000t dry displacement) would easily cost €800-900m. The system requirement would be so complex, a newcomer would not be able to know what to develop first. Moreover, many of the subsystems and parts are controlled by ITAR (or similar export control regime). The heavy R&D and production investment lead to industrial consolidation for last 50 years (US, 30 years in EU). If the existing producers are struggling to coupe with the cost, the cost pressure on a newcomer would be even greater. Hence the market is going to stabilise with limited global competitors for any foreseeable future. 5. Long acquisition cycle and development costs. Most defence acquisitions come with extreme procurement processes and frequent delays. For example, US aircraft would take 14 years to develop and 10 years to build. Companies need to fund their R&D and production outlay with their own money. This long payback period makes the industry unattractive for many companies (eg most Japanese corporates have abandoned defence sector). Many governments, rather than nurturing, decided to abuse their dominant position to bully the developers. For example, a delay in budget allocation would naturally result in the developer realising its profit (hence extending its investment cost and financing cost), often fails to compensate the developers or producers. US is one of very few countries where the gov is actively nurturing the developers (eg Lockheed Martin has not been profitable for a large portion of its history, but survived due to generous gov support). Defence industry is a high risk low return industry with bad reputation (from scamming gov to death dealers). Although many governments claim they are nurturing the industry, the key risk those companies face are not strictly market risks only. The global consolidation will continue for a foreseeable future and we are likely to see even more extortionate price tags for defence systems for the reasons above. In other words, capability gap between developed nations and developing nations will widen (industry wise or military wise). This gap may never close going forward.
That assumes there isn't a tactical/strategic way to use lower cost weaponry against a more capable opponent or bridge of cheaper/innovative tech that might cut across the development gap. While I am not going to jump on the bandwagon and say drones are the new killer app, they certainly point the way forward.
What you describe here is a traditional industrial model whereas South Korea is building the new industrial model for defence industries. Look at these traditional companies partnering with a non-European country, Ukraine, to build market share and the supply side. While tentative and conservative today it could become the next disruptive trend we all face.
" The whole journey has taken Korean 50 years and astronomical investment and dozens of thousands of researchers and engineers to get to where they are. There is no short cut. " - They actually took a shortcut and paid for it with demography. Their population is in decline and will plummet in near future. Anyway, very good points.
Great post. Your abilities to research and put together a huge amount of information, then make it understandable and very interesting to the average person in a circa one hour presentation is astounding. Onya!
Pretty much my go-to for facts-based, reasoned analysis of defense subjects on TH-cam. Thank you for your hard work and your commitment to being as transparent as possible given the subject matter.
Dearest Perun, thank you again as always. It strikes me that employment opportunities in the industry must be good at the moment... I trust you are looking after yourself, if you ever feel like a week off don't be shy, I'm sure. Even if seven days seems like a long time in between videos already. Cheers from Cape Town, South Africa
That would seem logical yes. Like South Africa, the USA does have plenty of unemployment these days. Unfortunately in the past few decades it seems like the way the economy works is that business opportunities are only taken advantage of if it can be done WITHOUT hiring. Robotic manufacturing for example. Occasionally by offshoring to neutral or even unfriendly countries. But always, no job creation for their own economies.
(As a South Korean) I have guessed on the order base, SK has jumped a lot. Now Perun gave the clear number. Export or not, SK cannot help going with indigenous arms. As Nixon put it in 1983 as to the arms supply to Taiwan, the US provides to the level which it thinks 'just enough' to defend Taiwan. This has been the rule for SK too, since this theater is too sensitive and dangerous. From the US point of view, if they overarm some hot-headed anti-China Koreans, these crazy guys could drag the US into war, with 28,000 GIs stationed here. But from the SK point of view, this US policy is too tantalizing. Too insecure for South Koreans. This is the background of the SK defense industry. As China has upgraded NK nukes and missiles (this is an insane thing to do, if you consider the long term, true strategic interest of China), the limit/ceiling imposed on SK's indigenous arms has evaproated. For example, from 2017 to 2021, the US cleared all the restrictions on the SK's non-nuke ballistic missiles (the US secured this authority when they provided some old, rudimentary ballistic missile technology in 1979). Today SK has one of the most formidable stock of non-nuke ballistics. As Perun clarified, the SK arms industry is primarily focused on SK's own needs, a very different case compared with that of Turkey. One example is BAMD(Ballistic and Air Missile Defense). The US has only two layers for the terminal phase of ballistics: Patriots and THAAD. We want five layers since the strategic depth from China and NK is very short. So we are developing them (two are successful; three are coming out soon). Another example is the so called 4.5 gen fighter (KF-21) which just entered Low Rate Initial Production phase. 20+20. A very big lot size for LRIP phase. We want a fighter for (1) substitutuing the old F-4s and F-5s (actually we can sustitute them with FA-50.. still they argued that way) (2) something much better than the latest version of F-16 (3) something comparable (not in terms of the tonnage of weapons but in terms of range and performance) to the latest version of F-15s (4) something which can evolve into a second-grade 5th gen fighter, still much faster and agile than F-35As (5) something which can play as the hub for manned-unmanned teaming (6) something for electronic warfare (7) something which can carry fatal missiles which the US does not want to provide to South Korea and which SK can develop indigenously.. Some examples of these fatal missiles are: - 500~1,000 km range bunker buster (powerful than Taurus. SK is one of the first countries to buy Taurus.) - 1,000 km range air-to-grand (comparable to JASSM-ER) - 300 km range anti-radar (comparable to ARGGM-ER) - 1,000 km range anti-ship (comparable to LRASM) I suppose the US does not want to provide this type of very disruptive missiles.. Still we want them. The US has not provided Tomahawks either; SK has developed them, with 1,500 km range. The range will be extended to 3,000 km. Still another example is submarines. The Diesel-AIP-LithiumBattery (DAL) submarines with non-nuke ballistic missiles are coming out. With indigenous conformal SONARs. It will be more deadly than the current deadliest Japanese subs. This model was planned before Ukraine war. Export was considered impossible. But now, Poland and Canada seem to be interested. There are a lot of indigenous weapons which are not eligible for export at all. Ballistic missiles with 9 ton warheads. Tactical data link interoperating with that of the US. (SK does not want to be dependent on the US solution)..... Reconnaissance satellites... Heavily armed high-end airborne drones(which is forbidden for Ex-Im by MTCR). Far East is one of the hottest spots. We cannnot help building most-destrucitve weapons. Export is only a chance result. Now, time has changed and all of a sudden, people all around the globe are looking for weapons for an all-out total war. Almost all of the intellectual property of Korean arms belong to the government, since they have been developed by gov. funding. It seems that Korean government is willing to lisence the local modification, production and R&D. For Koreans, weapons and the technology are for alliance and partnership. If Poland produces tanks and shells, if Austrailia produces IFVs and howitzers, they can provide those when SK is fighting against China or its puppet NK, if China has destroyed the factories. For example, four producers of K-9 self-propelled howitzers are set up: Austrailia, Poland, India and Turkey. Two producers of K-2 tanks: Poland and Turkey.
Well of course the US can’t be held liable or responsible if SK is able to develop their own capabilities over time. And so even though the US isn’t able to uparm SK the way it likes, I don’t think any Americans leaders or people are unhappy to see SK uparm itself. All the combat power with less of the escalation risk. It’s lovely to have capable and committed allies btw, cheers to Seoul from the Atlantic Coast.
An interesting aside, the ship that hit the Baltimore bridge, was Korean built. Although the Collision shouldn't necessarily be a black mark against the koreans, the fact that they spit out so many ships for the world's logistical needs, it becomes no wonder that they can scale up so quickly for military use as well.
Tito was a major thorn in the Soviet’s side. And as dictators went he was one of the best ones. Supplying him with ordnance & gear was definitely in our best interest. His big, BIG mistake was not planning for his sucession.
IMO, Yugoslavia was the only true neutral military in the post-WW2 world. They went bankrupt planning essentially two armies. A Soviet standard one and a NATO standard one.
@@grahamstrouse1165 "BIG mistake was not planning for his sucession" - Dictators are, by the very nature of their power, unable to prepare a successor even close to them in terms of competence/power. Any successor will be a competitor - as such heir will need to have enough personal power to smash any opposition/pretender the moment of "ascension". Which in turn means transfer of some power the the successor while original dictator is still alive and kicking. Meaning having an "heir" is detrimental and risky to any dictator. Also, being appointed as successor means the "heir" isn't so much a self-made man as the original one but more like a billionaire's child - softer, less cunning, with less drive etc.
Perun: First, great presentation. 1:01:00 - I think Elon Musk's StarLink deserves a shout out here. What started as a PR stunt for Musk to help Ukraine has turned into a political and (at least was a) financial quagmire worthy of its own video. The first thing Russia did during this war, that wasn't screwed up, was take out Ukraine's means of communications. Russia has been unable to block, and may have even used, StarLink which allowed Ukrainian forces to to better coordinate. Also, I recently watched some other videos about the war that indicated that the Ukrainians where using StarLink to control many of the same unmanned systems that have been making the headlines. You probably have a list of videos queued up at this point. This is just a recommendation if it's not already on your list.
Hey @perun, a quick feedback: could you please make the legend a bit bigger in histograms such as @9:21? Also I would suggest to improve the separation of the colors, sometimes it is a bit difficult to distinguish different shades of green/grey. Maybe you can use dotted bins as well? Just some suggestions :)
I can't recall the name of the book, but many years ago I read a history of supply and ligistics during WWII in which a retired logistics officer stated that the only thing that can go through artillery rounds faster than combat operations is an explosion in the factory making the artillery rounds. His point was that when you plan on how many shells you'll need, triple that amount at the very least. I think this was the same gentleman who said that the only thing that burns up fuel faster than combat ops is a refinery fire. It was the first book I had read on the logistics side of war. It was quite tte eye opener. Liberty ships, Mulberry harbors, Red Ball express, Flying supplies over the hump, etc , etc. Now that I've gotten to thinking about it again, I'm going to have to find that book!
Be happy you aren't Swiss, because then your head would have exploded. The fundamental flaw with the concept of neutrality is that there is no such thing. That's because no matter how extreme a nation is in their endeavors to do absolutely nothing to anyone, doing nothing is still a decision that affects people and will make one outcome more likely than another. A century ago, it was easier for a small country to convince itself that nothing it did or didn't do, had an affect on anyone else. However, these days, with how connected Europe's and the world's economies have become, it's impossible to keep that illusion going. Switzerland has its reasons for refusing to accept that reality, and doing everything it can to not see it, but everyone else does. Switzerland's stance on neutrality right now: 🙊🙉🙈
@@a5cent Various conventions have codified what it means to be 'neutral' in a conflict. It defines certain actions that you must take to maintain neutrality (as an example, if a belligerent nation parks a warship in one of your ports for more than 72 hours, you're obligated to seize it and its crew until the end of hostilities,) and certain lines that you can't cross that allow you to stay neutral (like _not_ waiting 72 hours before seizing the aforementioned warship.) Point is, it's not about some Platonic ideal of 'neutrality.' It's not a failure because it isn't perfect.
@@boobah5643 I'm not arguing that it's a failure. I'm arguing that it's an illusion. Any action has an affect, including inaction. No amount of dressed up legalese on official paper can change that fundamental fact. Whether Swiss neutrality is a failure depends on the stated goals and who's judging the outcome. I'd consider that a separate debate.
Just as a suggestion for a future topic... Maybe we should cut this an entirely different way. A video that talks about the change in relative importance of various product categories. Also we could look at products that are winners and losers over a span of time.
Wow, did you change mics? Sounds much better, less high-end, more lows, makes your voice sound more lifelike and the production quality improves. Did you change anything? PS - I watch all of your vids 👍
I think what this shows is how quickly a healthy economy can increase arms production. And just how badly losing their substandard material in a war instead of selling it affect the Russian economy.
Russias economy has actually grown despite the sanctions whilst said sanctions have destroyed west Europes economies. This war proves nationalism over globalized trade can be a very beneficial thing. And how is their equipment any more substandard than Nato equipment? Nato equipment has not performed any better than many Soviet systems in this war but they certainly cost more and take forever to manufacture.
@@57thorns the Imf admits and lays Russias gdp growth out to bare whilst hundreds of videos of burning western equipment that couldn't engage in combat before being destroyed floods the internet. Im simply telling the truth. You tell me where the hell handlers are saying any of the things I said in my comment. If you want to talk propaganda why dont we look at all the bullshit spewing from the west such as the green energy scam, denying any inflation or how poor their economies are, preaching hypocritical crap about diversity despite high migrant crime, imprisoning and attacking people for not agreeing with transgender insanity cults, provoking wars and funding terrorists everywhere and pinning the blame on the victims, constant lies about being democratic despite locking Assange up and covering for israels genocides.
Wow, I can’t believe the quality and depth of ALL of these documentaries. These are educated and such well rounded presentations of a diverse range of sources. It is sad that the internet is filled with so many ill informed views, and finding such high quality education/presentations is hard to find
"in 2022, it's the story of an emerging producer knocking on the door of some new markets. by 2023, the door had been clearly blown off its hinges. and now in 2024, the data shows that there's a breach and clear operation well and truly in progress." lmfao. well done.
Considering his heritage, I won't be surprised if he actually celebrates it, it at least his family does Wonder if they dye their eggs for that like we do in Mordor
One thing that absolutely baffles me is the public image of Rheinmetall. A few weeks ago they announced a sponsorship of a major German football club. This was mostly met with indifference. If this would’ve been done in 2018, the outrage would‘ve been massive, with people protesting and boycotting the club.
I would add a warning note on the explosion of South Korean armor orders. Its in part because the government has been very willing to divert existing orders it had placed some years earlier and were near delivery to foreign customers meaning it was available almost immediately. So similar to Russia which was selling refurbished old stuff the South Korean production wasnt meeting domestic demand plus foreign demand, it was diverting domestic supply to foreign customers and the domestic customer moving to the back of the queue.
Thank you for all the solid research you put into these videos. Faithful reiteration of facts has fallen out of favor unfortunately. I appreciate you taking the time to go deep into a topic for the non military clueless watcher who votes, like me.
Oh Lord ! Another interminable hour an five minutes of power point presentation It'll be full of graphs and thingys about the global arms market ...... Yipee !!! It's Sunday and its Perun !!! Happy Easter Mate
About China's plunge of orders I suspect it might be that people don't like to buy weapons of countries that might end up on the opposite side of a conflict.
Well, the next few years are going to be good for Swedish weapons and steel/ore exports. The extremely low Swedish currency is only gonna boost the export market further. But makes Grafic cards bloody expensive 🤣
You know you've been watching an appropriate amount of power point man when you start playing Helldivers 2 and your first thought is, holy shit, every Helldiver is given their own personal star ship battle cruiser thing that can call down stratagems, and sometimes there are missions with
I'd really like to know more about the sharp decline of Chinese export orders. I can't imagine it's a lack of demand, and like you said, supply probably can't have jumped off a cliff that steep that suddenly. So is this a massive push to clear out legacy equipment in the PLA, or to deepen stocks? Could be an interesting deep dive topic. As always, fantastic work Perun.
I guess many chinese weapons are Seen as a adaption of soviet of russian systems. And werden all know how they have performed against Ukraine. To add, to you really bei reliant on chinese good will? Ok if you are an African warlord, but China is stepping on many foots in its neighbourhood.
Norinco has been one of the largest global sellers of the most diverse product lines, often the best-built of their type, for decades. They have often constricted supply to previously prolific buyers before, though. Norinco supplied almost every non-captured weapon used in Afghanistan to fight the Soviets, then the P.R.C. stopped selling after the Soviet withdrawal. By the time of the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, all stocks of Chinese heavy munitions were expended in fratricide, and the P.R.C. declined to sell replacements. Sure, you have a 12-tube 107mm multiple-launch rocket system that weighs less than 200 kg, donkey-portable, and can obliterate anything (up to and including Abrams, with the right ammo) within 3.2 km, but you're out of ammunition. But . . . often, only specific systems. Lots of Chinese mortar shells in Afghan caves. I don't think the P.R.C. even _does_ End-User License Agreements! (Why write an un-enforceable contract?)
Hypocrisy, Swiss banks are in thru their eyeballs implyed in weapon components smuggling for Russia, but supplying Ukraine with defensive weapons is a no-go, also if România would be attacked by Russia, Swiss firms won't supply with spare parts even the Piranha vehicles that they are selling , because it's a war! Neutrality is a escuse for making big money, like they did with nazi in WW2.
And sure, the priest might have the best sex toys, but if he decided to export some, he'd have to make you promise never to use them, for it would be a sin.
The arms market has seen some dramatic shifts since 2022, and after the response to the video on Russia's collapse as a supplier, I thought it would be worth finishing the story by looking at some of the other major movers and trends in detail. Hope you enjoy.
Small correction as per the description - at one point I do misspeak. I indicate that the estimate for increased defence spending in 2023 is a CSIS figure when it is in fact from an IISS publication.
Is defence spending at two per cent of GDP still appropriate?
It was agreed in the good ol' days of less belligerent Russia. If we look at the Cold War period most Nato members were well above 2 per cent - more like three to five percent. A few notable exceptions such as the Great White North that started reaping prematurely the peace dividend in 1973 when its defence spending fell to less than 2 per cent and remained even lower than that for 46 of the past 50 years. Excluding Toqueistan's five decades of withering, many other Nato states are at two to three decades of under investment. Two per cent of GDP was to stop the withering and sustain a credible force in an entirely different context. But the word of the day now is expansion. Two per cent of GDP doesn't cut it. Expansion is Poland's 4 per cent.
Seeing long-term purchases coming from three or four per cent of GDP may make it easier for defence firms to expand productive capacity.
Will you list relevant reading materials for directed energy weapons video (it seems you wanted to edit description later but forgot)?
Denmark doesn’t mind Switzerland having high salaries, so has Denmark Australia and many other importers of weapon systems quality and ability to deliver the system fast and not in 10 years is much more important, Denmark wanted new artillery but Ukraine was given free access to both current weapons and ordered ones that Denmark had whit a specific amount of value they could take or order new weapons or used once for the same amount of money, wisely they took all the soon to be delivered Cesar mobile artillery systems from France they where given a short training period when they where delivered in Denmark with our artillery trainers and mechanics to both shot, supply and repair, a system we hadn’t even operated before but had prepared for to do so with the French, and then they where transported to Ukraine with their new crew and service personnel, the war in Ukraine has really been a logistical and training experience for both EU and Ukraine 😮 but France couldn’t supply new ones in a very long time even with the increased production, they are very expensive and which is not that important because they are also very good, but long delivery is a no go, but despite Israel is at war they have taken the contract for mobile artillery and some mobile rockets artillery similar to the Americans sent to Ukraine and the Caesar mobile artillery, it has very close to the same capabilities and quality, don’t know about the price but it is very fast which is important. So Israel unlike Russia can still export weapons and fast delivery 😊
🐣🥚🍳🪺🐰🐇🧺🍭🍬
@@gagamba9198 it’s minimum 2 % and yes that’s a fine mark for everyone, if I where Poland and the Baltic states I would go as high as you say, but they are already doing or aiming for that number, they have in living memory had unpleasant experiences with Russian imperialism, USSR or Russia the occupation soldiers spoke Russian. Finland is above 2 percent and has a very big military especially infantry and artillery and enormous bunker systems to both soldiers and civilians to live in under a nuclear war, they have even under ground schools and sports facilities to whether out a war in, Norway spends a little under 2% but have budgeted to do so in 2026, but I’m not sure if they can make it, they have a unique situation, they are unbelievably rich, much higher GDP than the USA and the war has made their exports enormous which makes it hard to get enough weapons to follow the increasing GDP, they where in the first wave to get F35 which they have been operating for many years now, they have lost of new US Abraham tanks and in every branch of their military it’s modern weapons the best you can buy for money, and Norway and Russia has a very narrow border which is in the arctic region and mountains with lots of water ways fjords narrowing it in many places even more, and the land has mountains one one side a the Atlantic Ocean on the other, and very few people live there which makes it perfectly for a defensive war in-depth, with NATO ships and AIR dominating airspace and sea, attacking Norway from Russia would be the worst possible scenario 1-20 deaths would be a good job for the Russia military, which would be having to supply everything on a single road that goes thousands of kilometers close to the border of Finland 😂 which means nothing would be possible to supply, the same thing with air crafts it would not be possible with the proximity and infrastructure the Russians have in the north to supply and attack by land, air or ship, if NATO spends minimum 2 % of GDP they will spend 15-20 times the amount of money that Russia spends, if they really preoccupied Ukraine over there oven military for 5 years they would easily out supply Russia and whoever supplies Russia, but it’s not easy to just give away weapons and money when you own military is under supplied 😮
"Yes Congressman, the youtuber is very accurate in his assessments. Yes sir, I am formally requesting we expand all weapons production by over 50%."
His videos are definitely shown in high cabinets by now. And if they aren't then it is a shameful mistake.
@@rotors_taker_0hlikely not. This would not be due to their quality but rather due to their length. In most high levels of government the time of politicians is at a premium and so it is often only a few minutes or seconds that are available for a presentation. Perhaps clips could be used. The full videos are likely being shown in some military training though as they would be an easy augmentation to existing training which, by the admission of several people in the comment sections of these videos, often involves extremely long and tedious PowerPoint lectures.
I think that Perun, being a military expert, might actually trump the fact he’s a TH-camr, it’s like William Spaniel, who’s also a TH-camr but a professor in social science.
Sometimes the TH-cam channel is irrelevant 😂
@@rotors_taker_0hIt’s possible. But “High Cabinets” usually have squads of subordinates that deliver one page summaries (and other subordinates that develop policies and still others that perform analysis on those policies.
So it’s likely that there are folks in upper echelons that watch Perun, there are also staffs that perform the same function.
The point is that the top decision makers are already getting Perun-level or better analysis, tailored to their specific circumstances.
Another aspect to Perun’s presentations is that they all use publicly available information. Perun might receive non-public information, but if so he would go to great pains not to reveal it by including it in his analysis.
Meanwhile, a government analyst supplying analysis product to get government won’t have such restrictions because their audience is cleared for such information.
Perun is an excellent resource for us, the public. He performs the vital function of informing us, the citizens and tax payers of our respective countries.
Let’s leave it at that.
@@Tekker2234 yeah, I don't mean really highest cabinets, of course politicians would never spend hours watching the video, but their staff member probably would (and should).
13:30 "the US doesn't have enough weapon" - perun, 31 march 2024 out of context quotes
hahahaha, yes
(Cocks guns in freedom)
How to immediately get fast tracked for US citizenship.
WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH AMMO, ESPECIALLY ESA (Emotional Support Ammunition)!
@@kitten-insideit's either that or marrying donald trump
Perun PowerPoints are like biting into a chocolate Easter bunny and discovering that its solid.
Truly one of the best feelings.
@@gow1044Truly
nah I'm very very cream filled after this vid
Good quote.
Do the rice krispy bunnies count as solid, or not? Because there is air inside the puffed rice, but its otherwise solid. I ask because those are the absolute best chocolate bunnies.
Let's be honest, as long as the quality of research and analysis is consistent, the topic of the weekly video isn't gonna make me skip a week
Amen!
Exactly this
I kinda want him to do a deep dive on the economy of every single current market
“Add their technological distinctiveness to their own.” Yes, caught that. Bravo.
The Collective must grow.
Resistance is futile.
Was looking for this.
He used that Borg phrase in an earlier video.
I always look forward to - and smile inwardly - for these little nuggets 👍
"The US doesn't have enough weapons."
Powerpoint man said it, Imma gonna buy more guns.
Go for it. You never know when you need some, and when you do need some you will not be able to buy them in time.
Body armor and tourniquets to. A gun is not the only thing you need to bring to a gunfight. But I'm a wierdo prepper hopefully we never need any of that shit.
@@Cloud_Seekerhow am I supposed to feel safe with only seven ARs?
8 is a bare minimum for home defense
@user-zb9lv3gh8s let's see. 2 AR 10s, one DMR and one battle rifle. 4 AR 15s, 2 5.56 (one back up), 2 any number of other calibers (one as back up), and 2 AR pistols.
Yeah that math checks out. But that's per person, not per household, right?
@@VladimirPutin-p3tSure. Don't forget to get some koreans. Everyone need some roof koreans.
Brilliant as always! I did choke on my coffee at the “there are stretches of the American desert with enough equipment to give every rattlesnake its own armoured division”. I absolutely love these videos you do. Keep it up 👍
Same here, and still chuckling! 😅
I knew it, america is secretly arming the snakemen!
If offered the chance to wager on whether the U.S. has more tanks than rattlesnakes, total, I'd have to say snakes... but only just.
How long does this stuff last / remain relevant / is zone proof?
@@Fredmayve The long term storage is great for preventing rust or corrosion. But the heat and dryness also require a complete overhaul to replace all the rubber and other materials that either dry rot or become too brittle. Seals, tires, belts and a ton of similar things.
"Europe is distracted and Germany decides to invade Belgium out of reflexive habit" made me spit my drink 🤣
I laughed too...didn't expect it
Its not spit but spill.
@@VTh-f5x Could be spit if he had put it in his mouth, then spat it out.
@@ALLMINDmercenarysupportsystem no. That's not how that idiom works.
@@VTh-f5x It's how the word works. If you were to SPIT at someone, did it spill from your mouth? No, it is a separate thing.
Legendary Aussie says funny things while providing intelligent commentary on [insert subject here]. Keep it up champ.
That graph that said literally everyone else. 😂😅😂😅😂
Especially the 'minor increase in Saab's share price'...from 200 SEK to 900 SEK. Very, er, 'moderate indeed! 😅
ooooooo he just champed him
Majorkill
In Sweden, the Army seems slightly slow on starting to buy drones, so the Home Guard basically went on Amazon and bought themselves a bunch to practice with. No meaningful numbers, but maybe enough to try out some tactics atleast.
That’s a way to do it
The Swedish Home Guard has officially adopted weapons almost a decade before the army on several occasions. It's almost like it's an integral part of the Swedish defence strategy.
With the rapid change Perun mentioned there's probably a model for "Buy", "Play with for a few months", "Send to Ukraine", "Buy" repeat repeat repeat and not actually being stuck with a mass purchase of last years model
@@andersjjensen Sweden is one army I keep being suprised by, by how competent and ready to throw hands they are.
Swedish military uses lots of drones, but the Home Guard are the last to get new toys.
Also if you buy Swiss weapons, and you end up at war, you would never be able to get spare parts or more ammo for them, from the Swiss at least. And of course from no one else if it's a part or ammo produced on license from Switzerland. So completely useless to spend even a cent on Swiss weapons.
Yep , the Swiss are an:- UNRELIABLE SOURCE OF AMMUNITION OR SPARES .
I expect the Swiss arms industry to suffer as a result. There's always someone willing to sell. Even ISIS can get basic weapons.
Yeah Switzerland has shown themself to be asses all the way. That government sucks with their fake neutrality.
That specific decision of the Swiss Goverment to block the Gepard Amunition to Ukraine was most likely just a knee fall to Russian Bank Deposits in Switzerland. By the way never believe the Swiss myth that their Alp Fortress prevented Hitler to invade in World War 2. The benefits of Swiss economic cooperation with the Nazi Regime was far to useful
@@richardarriaga6271 I think this will eventually kill Swiss arms export.
This is how I know it's Sunday
What about church? Today is Easter. You should be in church!
@@Cue_D_ball Not everyone is Christian. Happy Easter.
That's exactly how I realized that it's Sunday today. "Wait, for come new Perun's video appeared, it's only Saturday, isn't it? Oh, wait..."
He's a Sweede, remember - we have other priorities... @@Cue_D_ball
@@Cue_D_ball I would rather step on a rusty nail.
Long term
S.Korea becomes a major supplier world wide.
Korea is already has tanks , APC's , IFV's ,artillery and self-propelled artillery on par and compatible with NATO.
Not only is S.Korea selling good kit, they will sell the factories for building the weapons in your own Country.
They are basically applying the "Franchise Model' to their defense industry.
They'll be cranking out the K-2 tank in Poland soon...It's a safe bet they'll be selling these things all over Eastern Europe to replace the obsolete Soviet built tanks they currently have.
South Korea is also ranked second worldwide in ship building output. This is massively important when China is ranked first in that category.
@@steelytemplar especially significant that the Korean shipbuilders are reportedly achieving even greater cost efficiency than the Chinese ones.
@@YoniBaruch-y3m How so ? Explain
The United States Navy admits that S.Korea builds the best destroyers in the World
@@glennchartrand5411 Eventho the korean navy has seen no actual combat whatsoever
A breakdown of the global arms market and how it's dynamics have shifted over the past decade?
Oh yeah, this is that good shit.
Fr lol
43:05 Swiss Neutrality flowchart => best laugh I've had this week!
It's hilarious and sad at the same time
I wonder how long it will stay relevant. It is a fairly new policy.
Same, especially with the "if [Germany] decides to invade Belgium out of reflexive habit"
Slaps like, you dont re-gift a gift.
I sold you the weapons bro. Not some poor sob that might actually use them.
@@takunveritas if only it were a gift. Unfortunately people have to buy the things, then get told they can't use what they bought🤷♂️ not a great way to secure future orders.
In a world where 99% of TH-camrs are getting hot and bothered over individual pieces of military hardware, there is one person who actually analyzes the things that win wars: the checkbook, the training and force structure, and the logistics train.
Keep doing what you're doing, Perun. In an age of heightened tension around the world, it is important for voters in the world's democracies to understand the concepts you are covering.
28:20
Hey Poland so what do you want to buy from us, we have planes, rocket systems, tanks, artillery, apcs.
Poland: Yes.
In his interview with Tucker Carlson, Putin telegraphed that if he succeeds in Ukraine, then Poland will be next. He said Poland started WWII, and he claimed Poland created Ukraine, and that they're harboring not-sees. Personally, I disagree with all of those claims. However, even if the claims against them are BS, Poland still has to prepare to be invaded in the next couple of years, or to help their neighbors keep the war in Ukraine (IOW supply their neighbors)
I mean, I know there are fascists in Poland, but they're everywhere - it's not as if Poland is especially susceptible. In fact, an argument could be made that the invading country is closer to that not-see ideal.
@@GizzyDillespee Take a look a Wagner and the airport riot and that's all you need to know about how much Russia actually cares about them. I mean they had a not see group attempt to overthrow the government and still have the audacity to claim Ukraine's problem is worse.
European Texas ...cough...Poland could probably put a tank brigade in Red Square within a week at this point.
Poland have been (mostly) supporting Ukraine like it's a proxy war, and if they become active belligerents it might become more expensive for them but they'd also relish the opportunity to take revenge for the 20th century.
That Borg line you dropped about K9 assimilating others and adding their technological distinctiveness to its own killed me. Love the humor as always
He does it tastefully. If you haven't seen Star Trek, or weren't listening super closely, you could easily have missed it.
Perun, I can't speak for anyone else but myself, but these heavy data analytics videos that you favor are my personal favorite as well. Thank you for the indepth and comprehensive summary of massive amounts of data and reading of reports, budgets and projections. Greatly appreciated, from an avid follower.
Honey wake up, the Prince of Production and Production PowerPoints is back with a new video!
43:01 - Sweden had some problem 43:43 - one german general said once: _"Life is like Belgium, sometimes you just need to make it through it"_
13:30 - That is, once again, the peace dividend biting us in the ass on the way out the door. Stuff like the Badger Army Ordinance Works was declared surplus in 1997, and leveled. To be fair, environmental remediation was absolutely necessary, but just “throwing away” capacity has proven to be problematic.
Upkeep can also be expensive.
Just look at Germany.
Unexploded surplus ordinance is also how you go Beirut.
@@richardarriaga6271wait, they said in news it was "fertilizer" ?
we wouldnt be year 3 of this war if soviet stockpiles were properly "recycled" in the first place. russia been enjoying some peace dividend too with old stockpiles and skipping manufacturing until 2022.
Ammonium nitrate is used in fertilizer… and also as the base of ANFO, which is used in demolitions….
As a Japanese, the talk arround Switzerland was something to take note. With GCAP/Tempest Program starting to ramp up its efforts, it was neccesary to make a cabinet decision to allow exports of it. The decision itself was made a few days ago, but it was a very controversial decision. Japan's constitusion has made it clear that Japan needed to "desire peace for all time" and exporting weapons that would kill people if used as intended doesn't seem to be very peacefull. But at the same time, those weapons are neccesary to deter wars and this should help other countries to be involved in wars, hence promoting world peace. Is the idea of "Neutrality" or "Pacifism" a joke in the current world? I don't know the answer, but I hope these hard times just go away.
Those are not hard time but more the norm. The relatives "peace" and great power corporation is in fact an anomalies.
If the last 10,000 years are any sign, the Star Trek ideal future isn’t happening any time soon.
Pacifism was always a joke. If you are a pacifist when conquerors are around you, you will simply help the conqueror by not getting in their way.
I feel that Japanese exports would be similar to Korea if there weren’t export restrictions Poland would definitely buy Type-10s
Hello from France
Si Vis Pacem Para Bellum (who seeks peace prepares war). Peace has never been free, we have to fight for it...
History is ridden with pacifist people wiped out by militias/armies/mercenaries. Pacifism stands as long as each party has a bigger incentive into cooperation than (armed) competition. China, and Russia did that for industry, energy, weapons industry, etc. and now they are somehow autonomous, are severing links as both
Their political views (centralized system, authoritarianism, and little freedom) fundamentally diverging from "West+" (USA, UE, UK, Australia, NZ, Japan, etc.) ones (freedom and democracy), they now have been in hybrid conflict for years against us. Also forming economical, industrial, energetic alliances with other authoritarian countries (North Korea, Iran, many african and south american countries, few in eastern Europe, etc.) trying to exclude West to replace it with their oppressive systems
Look at how China closed access the IAEA site to its locals and claimed Fukushima water was supposedly toxic, propping an anti-japanese feel and boycott of many japanese products, when they rise admissible emissions of their own nuclear plants to cover the leaks there. Not open conflict but rather economic, soft power, and information ones
I love it when Perun reduces regulations to the ridiculous (re Swiss Arms End User Agreements).
I think the big thing bringing me back every Sunday, is the amount of new to me information on topics I'm interested in clearly presented. The giggles are a bonus. 😊
11:25 *"...After the Lockheed-Martin executives presumably shake off the hallucination of diving into a Scrooge McDuck-style money pit..."*
LOL.
26:32 comparing the Korean defence industry strategy with the Borg was a nice touch 🧊
Resistance is futile
The real Borg are on the other side of DMZ and they are getting a lot of goods from Russia
That’s a good point
@@qZbGmYjS4QusYqv5Borg quality is much better than that. Wolf 359 would have been different if half the Borg's disruptors blew up on itself, missed targets, or didn't fire.
@@qZbGmYjS4QusYqv5 North Koreans borgs are running on windows 95
I'm gonna tell you what I'm gonna tell you, then I'll tell you, then I'll tell you what told you. Perfect. Works every time. Always appreciate this channel.
Solid pedagogy.
Perun, please do a video on Swiss vs. Austrian vs. Swedish/Finnish NEUTRALITY - past, present and future
Oh, Hell yeah! His method of using PowerPoint to bring clarity would be much better than even the best any political scientist would do!
But I would like to see one with a compare and contrast of the different rules and positions of all of the declared Neutrals.
Versus Japanese? Their policy seems to be along those same lines.
“The wait is so long, it’s almost Tesla worthy”. Only 4 minutes and 54 seconds needed!
at least you can drive the s400 in the rain
Just a quick remark: The President of Switzerland is a purely representative position and he is merely the Primus inter Pares of the Executive Council, so not comparable to POTUS or other states where the President is the big boss.
But he is the voice of Switzerland, for good or ill.
@@carlossaraiva8213yes but Switzerland is a confederation of Cantons, more decentralized than the US federal model as far as I can tell.
Originally the POTUS wasn't really the big boss, either. Three branches for balance.
@@builtbroken3558 "Originally the POTUS wasn't really the big boss" - I was under impression it was exact opposite. POTUS had more powers than the allegedly "tyrannical" monarch of Great Britain.
@@EmyrDerfelI think a Swiss in the comments was saying actual laws were passed around re export as well in the 2000s.
Honestly, one of the things I love the most about your channel is that if I'm in the mood to focus and learn about defense and geopolitics and history, you're amazingly informative and engaging. Conversely, if I want some background audio to fall asleep to, the economics works a treat for that too.
27:05 that South Korean export of ships will spike once again after the Philippines' order of 6 OPVs and 2 heavy corvettes, they might also bag the 2 submarines currently on tender.
They also recently signed a deal with the Peruvian Government for tech transfer and local production of frigates, OPVs, and LCUs.
The latter is concerning, due to heavy "investments" by the P.R.C. in Peru.
Another brilliant vid. Thanks very much!
My general takeaway is that for artillery and drones:
If a little is good, more is better and too much is almost enough.
It's a general rule for all munitions. Peacetime bureaucrats fundamentally can _not_ understand wartime munition use, even the uniformed bureaucrats. So they'll buy what they confidently claim is a twelve month supply for high-intensity conflict, and then during a war run through the lot in a month or two.
It's pretty much a constant of warfare, though you'll find that in ye olden days some of it was planned for by plundering conquered lands.
Yes, this one was special. It is a testament that the world is changing and no one notices. Its not covered in the news.. all but Perun.
'Swiss weapons must not be used in wars'? Maybe, as Sir Humphrey said, they could put a health warning on their products...
It’s interesting to see how much Korea’s industrial capacity has been able to step up.
Agreed
However they have been sitting next door to a country that never signed a peace treaty with them.
+ Also has massive artillery+ tank forces.
.....
++ Your country always remembers the last war.
+
For them that war was "the Korean war"
Where the north nearly completely overwhelmed them with the weight of Soviet sponsored weapon systems.
And looking around the world at the ability for other nations to actually supply them in case of emergency......
Well we see how well that has gone.
@@gmanbo Oh I agree. But even all of that doesn’t necessitate the level of excess capacity that they have in the proverbial garage.
@@elijahsnow3119 - They're in a position, though, where they have to set up shops in other countries (which is okay, unless you're doing best in class, cutting edge stuff). The pop. of only 50 million is aging and shrinking.
@@JoannDavi Also there’s the realization of the fact that Korea has zero strategic depth. The Polish/Korean nexus is… possibly one of the most interesting geopolitical developments I’ve ever seen in my lifetime.
@@elijahsnow3119
From our perspective sure.
But say from a USA perspective.
If Mexico was our north Korea.
+
War could just suddenly pop off.
The spare compasity in the USA would be....
Rather crazy.
Happy Easter to our servicemen and women around the globe.
Thanks for making these videos. Hope you're well, and that you're enjoying your much deserved success.
"In case the Poles get ideas again."
They do seem to have some strong notions.
I expect Polish navy jokes to become Russian navy jokes in 10 years.
If only their wallet matched their ambitions!
@richardarriaga6271 wait one min... Russia still has a Navy???
@@MM22966they just have to make a choice. Either have health care or a bad ass unhealthcare machine. I trust European Texas to make te correct choice.
@@texasforever7887 Technically, due to various factors, Russia never had THE navy or even a navy - the had multiple navies ('fleets') spread between disjointed theaters. Northern Fleet, Baltic Fleet, Far East Fleet are unaffected.
Gladiator to Meteor is a good example of the speed of change in WW2, as would Matilda 1 to Centurion. Hard to believe that Fairey Swordfish to Fairey Swordfish was also a thing.
It's not really fair to compare the Gladiator to the Meteor as "five years." It was a seven and a half year gap from Gladiator in Feb 37 to Meteor in July 44.
@@boobah5643 , MkV Spitfire to Meteor F3. 5 years. No prizes for guessing who gets to go home for tea and medals.
It's not the only example though. HMS Dreadnaught rendered every other battleship afloat instantly obsolete. 30 years later, the aircraft carrier reduced the battleship to effectively a niche shore bombardment platform and even then only where air superiority had been attained.
The problem with Swiss weapons is that in case you end up at war, there will be no more replacment for the systems you bought from them.
"Comes off the rope with a chair" is a great comment. It results in me busting out laughing, and the dogs looking at me like "what is happening?"
I feel more informed and am somewhat concerned that South Korea is flirting with the Borg collective. Great job Perun!
Also, happy Bunsen burner Day everyone!
Well that would be a clever new method of solving korea's population problem, just assimilate.
Hope there's an in depth Turkey video on its way as well. 🤞🏽🤞🏽🤞🏽
Bhai aap yahan
Geo politik stand up next
Great overview of historic and current market development. I concur to a certain extent and would like to add my 2 cents worth.
1. Industrial output of defence sector is not as simple. For example, self propelled artillery. You need some primary technology, guns (barrels etc), turret (largely command and control - C2), powerpack, hull (armour plate, welding and suspensions). Then you need ammunition and propellant (artillery charge) and accurate positioning, target acquisition, data sharing (C4) and rapid shoot and scoot capabilities. Nowadays, you would also need autoloader, auto resupply vehicle and so on. Each and every component would require hundreds of millions dollars of investment to achieve if not billions. For example, there are inly 3 nations in Europe who can produce high quality armour plates for armoured vehicle (others are far inferior), welding technology and skilled workforce would take years of investment and training, for artillery propellant (charge) there are only 5 countries with proprietary technology (largely, modularised cartridge charge), for barrels only 4-5 countries with chrome plating technology to extend barrel life etc. You would need all the components together to produce a competitive system on a global stage. That take years of heavy investment and plenty of R&D personnels.
2. Techstack. You might want to build a SpH, after all some countries produced it 70-80 years ago. However, the techstack required for a modern platform is truly mind blowing. For example, SatCom target designation would require myriad of technologies from secure GPS, Communication, target prioritisation, target allocation etc. To achieve a decent platform for your forces, the R&D cost of such platforms would be in hundreds of millions dollars. With new addition of drone ISR, the complexity and coats go up exponentially.
3. The example of French Airforce and its development is a good example. Without such development pre WW2, French may not have been able to develop its jet fighters post war. Each new technology innovation is a child of prior technology. It is very hard to break that steps and come up with something that is market disrupting. Hence to develop all the necessary tech stack is a long term challenging tasks and not as simple as buying the technology from somewhere else. For example, Korea developed KT1 (turbo prop trainer in 80s), then FA50 (single jet trainer attacker in 2000s) and now developing KF21 (twin jet in 2020s). The whole journey has taken Korean 50 years and astronomical investment and dozens of thousands of researchers and engineers to get to where they are. There is no short cut.
4. The complexity and cost of developing a new system is skyrocketing. F35 spends more investment in developing software than hardware. As the world leaps forward with defence technology, the sheer investment required to enter the market is becoming a natural barrier for entry. For example, a frigate (5-6,000t dry displacement) would easily cost €800-900m. The system requirement would be so complex, a newcomer would not be able to know what to develop first. Moreover, many of the subsystems and parts are controlled by ITAR (or similar export control regime). The heavy R&D and production investment lead to industrial consolidation for last 50 years (US, 30 years in EU). If the existing producers are struggling to coupe with the cost, the cost pressure on a newcomer would be even greater. Hence the market is going to stabilise with limited global competitors for any foreseeable future.
5. Long acquisition cycle and development costs. Most defence acquisitions come with extreme procurement processes and frequent delays. For example, US aircraft would take 14 years to develop and 10 years to build. Companies need to fund their R&D and production outlay with their own money. This long payback period makes the industry unattractive for many companies (eg most Japanese corporates have abandoned defence sector). Many governments, rather than nurturing, decided to abuse their dominant position to bully the developers. For example, a delay in budget allocation would naturally result in the developer realising its profit (hence extending its investment cost and financing cost), often fails to compensate the developers or producers. US is one of very few countries where the gov is actively nurturing the developers (eg Lockheed Martin has not been profitable for a large portion of its history, but survived due to generous gov support).
Defence industry is a high risk low return industry with bad reputation (from scamming gov to death dealers). Although many governments claim they are nurturing the industry, the key risk those companies face are not strictly market risks only. The global consolidation will continue for a foreseeable future and we are likely to see even more extortionate price tags for defence systems for the reasons above. In other words, capability gap between developed nations and developing nations will widen (industry wise or military wise). This gap may never close going forward.
That assumes there isn't a tactical/strategic way to use lower cost weaponry against a more capable opponent or bridge of cheaper/innovative tech that might cut across the development gap. While I am not going to jump on the bandwagon and say drones are the new killer app, they certainly point the way forward.
What you describe here is a traditional industrial model whereas South Korea is building the new industrial model for defence industries. Look at these traditional companies partnering with a non-European country, Ukraine, to build market share and the supply side. While tentative and conservative today it could become the next disruptive trend we all face.
" The whole journey has taken Korean 50 years and astronomical investment and dozens of thousands of researchers and engineers to get to where they are. There is no short cut. " - They actually took a shortcut and paid for it with demography. Their population is in decline and will plummet in near future.
Anyway, very good points.
I am in awe at the amount of consistent, informative and quite entertaining content you put out. Thank you so very much for sharing your insights!
Great post. Your abilities to research and put together a huge amount of information, then make it understandable and very interesting to the average person in a circa one hour presentation is astounding. Onya!
lol at the dramatic “the U.S. doesn’t have enough weapons”. Keep up the great work! ❤
Pretty much my go-to for facts-based, reasoned analysis of defense subjects on TH-cam. Thank you for your hard work and your commitment to being as transparent as possible given the subject matter.
Dearest Perun, thank you again as always.
It strikes me that employment opportunities in the industry must be good at the moment...
I trust you are looking after yourself, if you ever feel like a week off don't be shy, I'm sure.
Even if seven days seems like a long time in between videos already.
Cheers from Cape Town, South Africa
That would seem logical yes. Like South Africa, the USA does have plenty of unemployment these days. Unfortunately in the past few decades it seems like the way the economy works is that business opportunities are only taken advantage of if it can be done WITHOUT hiring. Robotic manufacturing for example. Occasionally by offshoring to neutral or even unfriendly countries. But always, no job creation for their own economies.
(As a South Korean) I have guessed on the order base, SK has jumped a lot. Now Perun gave the clear number. Export or not, SK cannot help going with indigenous arms. As Nixon put it in 1983 as to the arms supply to Taiwan, the US provides to the level which it thinks 'just enough' to defend Taiwan. This has been the rule for SK too, since this theater is too sensitive and dangerous. From the US point of view, if they overarm some hot-headed anti-China Koreans, these crazy guys could drag the US into war, with 28,000 GIs stationed here.
But from the SK point of view, this US policy is too tantalizing. Too insecure for South Koreans. This is the background of the SK defense industry.
As China has upgraded NK nukes and missiles (this is an insane thing to do, if you consider the long term, true strategic interest of China), the limit/ceiling imposed on SK's indigenous arms has evaproated. For example, from 2017 to 2021, the US cleared all the restrictions on the SK's non-nuke ballistic missiles (the US secured this authority when they provided some old, rudimentary ballistic missile technology in 1979). Today SK has one of the most formidable stock of non-nuke ballistics.
As Perun clarified, the SK arms industry is primarily focused on SK's own needs, a very different case compared with that of Turkey.
One example is BAMD(Ballistic and Air Missile Defense). The US has only two layers for the terminal phase of ballistics: Patriots and THAAD. We want five layers since the strategic depth from China and NK is very short. So we are developing them (two are successful; three are coming out soon).
Another example is the so called 4.5 gen fighter (KF-21) which just entered Low Rate Initial Production phase. 20+20. A very big lot size for LRIP phase. We want a fighter for (1) substitutuing the old F-4s and F-5s (actually we can sustitute them with FA-50.. still they argued that way) (2) something much better than the latest version of F-16 (3) something comparable (not in terms of the tonnage of weapons but in terms of range and performance) to the latest version of F-15s (4) something which can evolve into a second-grade 5th gen fighter, still much faster and agile than F-35As (5) something which can play as the hub for manned-unmanned teaming (6) something for electronic warfare (7) something which can carry fatal missiles which the US does not want to provide to South Korea and which SK can develop indigenously.. Some examples of these fatal missiles are:
- 500~1,000 km range bunker buster (powerful than Taurus. SK is one of the first countries to buy Taurus.)
- 1,000 km range air-to-grand (comparable to JASSM-ER)
- 300 km range anti-radar (comparable to ARGGM-ER)
- 1,000 km range anti-ship (comparable to LRASM)
I suppose the US does not want to provide this type of very disruptive missiles.. Still we want them. The US has not provided Tomahawks either; SK has developed them, with 1,500 km range. The range will be extended to 3,000 km.
Still another example is submarines. The Diesel-AIP-LithiumBattery (DAL) submarines with non-nuke ballistic missiles are coming out. With indigenous conformal SONARs. It will be more deadly than the current deadliest Japanese subs. This model was planned before Ukraine war. Export was considered impossible. But now, Poland and Canada seem to be interested.
There are a lot of indigenous weapons which are not eligible for export at all. Ballistic missiles with 9 ton warheads. Tactical data link interoperating with that of the US. (SK does not want to be dependent on the US solution)..... Reconnaissance satellites... Heavily armed high-end airborne drones(which is forbidden for Ex-Im by MTCR).
Far East is one of the hottest spots. We cannnot help building most-destrucitve weapons. Export is only a chance result. Now, time has changed and all of a sudden, people all around the globe are looking for weapons for an all-out total war.
Almost all of the intellectual property of Korean arms belong to the government, since they have been developed by gov. funding. It seems that Korean government is willing to lisence the local modification, production and R&D.
For Koreans, weapons and the technology are for alliance and partnership.
If Poland produces tanks and shells, if Austrailia produces IFVs and howitzers, they can provide those when SK is fighting against China or its puppet NK, if China has destroyed the factories. For example, four producers of K-9 self-propelled howitzers are set up: Austrailia, Poland, India and Turkey. Two producers of K-2 tanks: Poland and Turkey.
Well of course the US can’t be held liable or responsible if SK is able to develop their own capabilities over time.
And so even though the US isn’t able to uparm SK the way it likes, I don’t think any Americans leaders or people are unhappy to see SK uparm itself. All the combat power with less of the escalation risk.
It’s lovely to have capable and committed allies btw, cheers to Seoul from the Atlantic Coast.
That is informative, I had no idea how many different systems SK now had by internal development!
An interesting aside, the ship that hit the Baltimore bridge, was Korean built. Although the Collision shouldn't necessarily be a black mark against the koreans, the fact that they spit out so many ships for the world's logistical needs, it becomes no wonder that they can scale up so quickly for military use as well.
As always, fantastic research and a humorous pointed delivery. Thanks.
Another splendid hour+ powerpoint. Microsoft should be paying you to demonstrate that slide presentations can be rivetingly interesting :)
Always love listening to these in the background. Keep up the awesome work.
Tito. Known capitalist icon and all around good guy…
Tito was a major thorn in the Soviet’s side. And as dictators went he was one of the best ones. Supplying him with ordnance & gear was definitely in our best interest. His big, BIG mistake was not planning for his sucession.
@@grahamstrouse1165 Tito is one of the most fascinating people of the 20th century. I wish I understood better how he managed all he did.
IMO, Yugoslavia was the only true neutral military in the post-WW2 world. They went bankrupt planning essentially two armies. A Soviet standard one and a NATO standard one.
@@grahamstrouse1165 "BIG mistake was not planning for his sucession" - Dictators are, by the very nature of their power, unable to prepare a successor even close to them in terms of competence/power. Any successor will be a competitor - as such heir will need to have enough personal power to smash any opposition/pretender the moment of "ascension". Which in turn means transfer of some power the the successor while original dictator is still alive and kicking. Meaning having an "heir" is detrimental and risky to any dictator.
Also, being appointed as successor means the "heir" isn't so much a self-made man as the original one but more like a billionaire's child - softer, less cunning, with less drive etc.
Start of a perun video - welcome to a whole bunch of stuff you had no idea was going on!
Perun: First, great presentation. 1:01:00 - I think Elon Musk's StarLink deserves a shout out here. What started as a PR stunt for Musk to help Ukraine has turned into a political and (at least was a) financial quagmire worthy of its own video. The first thing Russia did during this war, that wasn't screwed up, was take out Ukraine's means of communications. Russia has been unable to block, and may have even used, StarLink which allowed Ukrainian forces to to better coordinate. Also, I recently watched some other videos about the war that indicated that the Ukrainians where using StarLink to control many of the same unmanned systems that have been making the headlines. You probably have a list of videos queued up at this point. This is just a recommendation if it's not already on your list.
Insightful, well reasoned, fabulously researched and compellingly presented
It's Easter holidays here and we should be out having dinner, but I forced everyone to watch another Perun video.
Priorities. 📊
As good as ever. Perun continues to deliver quality informative videos every week. Thanks!
Hey @perun, a quick feedback: could you please make the legend a bit bigger in histograms such as @9:21? Also I would suggest to improve the separation of the colors, sometimes it is a bit difficult to distinguish different shades of green/grey. Maybe you can use dotted bins as well? Just some suggestions :)
I can't recall the name of the book, but many years ago I read a history of supply and ligistics during WWII in which a retired logistics officer stated that the only thing that can go through artillery rounds faster than combat operations is an explosion in the factory making the artillery rounds.
His point was that when you plan on how many shells you'll need, triple that amount at the very least.
I think this was the same gentleman who said that the only thing that burns up fuel faster than combat ops is a refinery fire.
It was the first book I had read on the logistics side of war. It was quite tte eye opener. Liberty ships, Mulberry harbors, Red Ball express, Flying supplies over the hump, etc , etc.
Now that I've gotten to thinking about it again, I'm going to have to find that book!
The Neutrality Flow Chart made my head hurt.
Be happy you aren't Swiss, because then your head would have exploded.
The fundamental flaw with the concept of neutrality is that there is no such thing. That's because no matter how extreme a nation is in their endeavors to do absolutely nothing to anyone, doing nothing is still a decision that affects people and will make one outcome more likely than another.
A century ago, it was easier for a small country to convince itself that nothing it did or didn't do, had an affect on anyone else. However, these days, with how connected Europe's and the world's economies have become, it's impossible to keep that illusion going. Switzerland has its reasons for refusing to accept that reality, and doing everything it can to not see it, but everyone else does.
Switzerland's stance on neutrality right now:
🙊🙉🙈
@@a5cent Various conventions have codified what it means to be 'neutral' in a conflict. It defines certain actions that you must take to maintain neutrality (as an example, if a belligerent nation parks a warship in one of your ports for more than 72 hours, you're obligated to seize it and its crew until the end of hostilities,) and certain lines that you can't cross that allow you to stay neutral (like _not_ waiting 72 hours before seizing the aforementioned warship.)
Point is, it's not about some Platonic ideal of 'neutrality.' It's not a failure because it isn't perfect.
@@boobah5643
I'm not arguing that it's a failure. I'm arguing that it's an illusion.
Any action has an affect, including inaction. No amount of dressed up legalese on official paper can change that fundamental fact.
Whether Swiss neutrality is a failure depends on the stated goals and who's judging the outcome. I'd consider that a separate debate.
Just as a suggestion for a future topic...
Maybe we should cut this an entirely different way. A video that talks about the change in relative importance of various product categories. Also we could look at products that are winners and losers over a span of time.
Fuck yeah Perun. Even on Easter Sunday. Looking forward to the weekly dose of PowerPoint.
Wow, did you change mics? Sounds much better, less high-end, more lows, makes your voice sound more lifelike and the production quality improves. Did you change anything?
PS - I watch all of your vids 👍
Love the R.o.K. growth analogy.
Excellent survey Perun! Thanks! You are a global public service!
"-they add their technological distinctiveness to their own." 🖖
The amount of information in these videos is tremendous. The confirmation of HL3 alone makes watching these worth it.
I think what this shows is how quickly a healthy economy can increase arms production. And just how badly losing their substandard material in a war instead of selling it affect the Russian economy.
Russias economy has actually grown despite the sanctions whilst said sanctions have destroyed west Europes economies.
This war proves nationalism over globalized trade can be a very beneficial thing.
And how is their equipment any more substandard than Nato equipment? Nato equipment has not performed any better than many Soviet systems in this war but they certainly cost more and take forever to manufacture.
@@rogerc6533 Did you make that up on the spot or was you spoon fed those lines from a handler?
@@57thorns the Imf admits and lays Russias gdp growth out to bare whilst hundreds of videos of burning western equipment that couldn't engage in combat before being destroyed floods the internet. Im simply telling the truth. You tell me where the hell handlers are saying any of the things I said in my comment. If you want to talk propaganda why dont we look at all the bullshit spewing from the west such as the green energy scam, denying any inflation or how poor their economies are, preaching hypocritical crap about diversity despite high migrant crime, imprisoning and attacking people for not agreeing with transgender insanity cults, provoking wars and funding terrorists everywhere and pinning the blame on the victims, constant lies about being democratic despite locking Assange up and covering for israels genocides.
Wow, I can’t believe the quality and depth of ALL of these documentaries. These are educated and such well rounded presentations of a diverse range of sources. It is sad that the internet is filled with so many ill informed views, and finding such high quality education/presentations is hard to find
"in 2022, it's the story of an emerging producer knocking on the door of some new markets. by 2023, the door had been clearly blown off its hinges. and now in 2024, the data shows that there's a breach and clear operation well and truly in progress."
lmfao. well done.
Just found your channel - will be marathoning. Keep up the awesome content! Insane production quality!!!!!!!!!!!!
Happy Easter, Perun!
They don’t celebrate Easter down under.
@@Cue_D_ballyes they do, they just do it backwards e.g. find the eggs and then color them
Emu eggs bc they can't let them get too populous.
next week: easter island vs emutopia.
Considering his heritage, I won't be surprised if he actually celebrates it, it at least his family does
Wonder if they dye their eggs for that like we do in Mordor
One thing that absolutely baffles me is the public image of Rheinmetall.
A few weeks ago they announced a sponsorship of a major German football club. This was mostly met with indifference.
If this would’ve been done in 2018, the outrage would‘ve been massive, with people protesting and boycotting the club.
Appreciate the disclaimer as to Swiss legal matters
I would add a warning note on the explosion of South Korean armor orders. Its in part because the government has been very willing to divert existing orders it had placed some years earlier and were near delivery to foreign customers meaning it was available almost immediately. So similar to Russia which was selling refurbished old stuff the South Korean production wasnt meeting domestic demand plus foreign demand, it was diverting domestic supply to foreign customers and the domestic customer moving to the back of the queue.
Thank you for all the solid research you put into these videos. Faithful reiteration of facts has fallen out of favor unfortunately. I appreciate you taking the time to go deep into a topic for the non military clueless watcher who votes, like me.
Great to have an audio that teaches us to correctly pronounce names like Thales or Baykar.
26:30 "assimilation" and "adding technological distictiveness to their own"
I see perun is a trekkie and a man of taste.
Another FANTASTIC video, thanks so much for posting!
Oh Lord ! Another interminable hour an five minutes of power point presentation It'll be full of graphs and thingys about the global arms market ...... Yipee !!! It's Sunday and its Perun !!! Happy Easter Mate
Great video I hope all your video's are this amazing. I can only imagine the amount of time this took you to make.
Seeing the title to this video after watching a Warhammer miniature rescue video; I misread it as Goblin Arms Exports.
As always, fantastic video! Although I can't help but notice the inconsistent mix between Arial and Helvetica :)
Thank you. I always feel like my IQ goes up after watching your videos.
What better way to celebrate Easter than a Perun video on global arms exports.
About China's plunge of orders I suspect it might be that people don't like to buy weapons of countries that might end up on the opposite side of a conflict.
Really great overview. Excellent pointing out of all the key points.
Well, the next few years are going to be good for Swedish weapons and steel/ore exports. The extremely low Swedish currency is only gonna boost the export market further. But makes Grafic cards bloody expensive 🤣
Thanks for the snapshot of a volatile and fascinating security environment.
You know you've been watching an appropriate amount of power point man when you start playing Helldivers 2 and your first thought is, holy shit, every Helldiver is given their own personal star ship battle cruiser thing that can call down stratagems, and sometimes there are missions with
Really enjoy these market videos!
I'd really like to know more about the sharp decline of Chinese export orders. I can't imagine it's a lack of demand, and like you said, supply probably can't have jumped off a cliff that steep that suddenly. So is this a massive push to clear out legacy equipment in the PLA, or to deepen stocks? Could be an interesting deep dive topic.
As always, fantastic work Perun.
I imagine many of China’s neighbors rather use US weapons.
I guess many chinese weapons are Seen as a adaption of soviet of russian systems. And werden all know how they have performed against Ukraine. To add, to you really bei reliant on chinese good will? Ok if you are an African warlord, but China is stepping on many foots in its neighbourhood.
Maybe they're thinking of the battle for Siberia ??
Norinco has been one of the largest global sellers of the most diverse product lines, often the best-built of their type, for decades. They have often constricted supply to previously prolific buyers before, though. Norinco supplied almost every non-captured weapon used in Afghanistan to fight the Soviets, then the P.R.C. stopped selling after the Soviet withdrawal. By the time of the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, all stocks of Chinese heavy munitions were expended in fratricide, and the P.R.C. declined to sell replacements. Sure, you have a 12-tube 107mm multiple-launch rocket system that weighs less than 200 kg, donkey-portable, and can obliterate anything (up to and including Abrams, with the right ammo) within 3.2 km, but you're out of ammunition.
But . . . often, only specific systems. Lots of Chinese mortar shells in Afghan caves. I don't think the P.R.C. even _does_ End-User License Agreements! (Why write an un-enforceable contract?)
@@johnbaker1256 there are still nukes. But if russia didn't have nukes, the new border would already be at the Ural mountains
Respect for the work behind this and essentially all Your vids.
Switzerland: Please dont use our weapons for war!
Other countries: *How about no*
You can use them to fight your own wars. Proxy war are a no no.
Hypocrisy, Swiss banks are in thru their eyeballs implyed in weapon components smuggling for Russia, but supplying Ukraine with defensive weapons is a no-go, also if România would be attacked by Russia, Swiss firms won't supply with spare parts even the Piranha vehicles that they are selling , because it's a war! Neutrality is a escuse for making big money, like they did with nazi in WW2.
@@joeyjojojrshabadoo7462 but proxy wars are the best kind because you don't have die yourself.
And sure, the priest might have the best sex toys, but if he decided to export some, he'd have to make you promise never to use them, for it would be a sin.
50:28 Would love to hear you unpack and analyze that dramatic drop on Chinese arms orders.
They are stockpiling materiel for themselves as America even as we speak is trying to provoke an incident with Taiwan aka WW3.